CBS Technical Conference 2018meetings.wmo.int/cbs-teco-2018/English/CBS-TECO-2018-Doc... · Web viewOn the scale of minutes to days, knowledge of current and forecast temperature,

World Meteorological OrganizationCommission for Basic SystemsTechnical Conference Geneva, Switzerland, 26 - 29 January, 2018

CBS TECO 2018/Doc. 4.3Submitted by:

[Sarah Jones, Germany]22.Mar.2018

DRAFT 1

SEAMLESS GDPFS IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

(Submitted by Sarah Jones, Michel Jean, Oystein Hov)

SUMMARY AND PURPOSE OF DOCUMENT

The document provides the draft Implementation Plan for the Seamless GDPFS

ACTION PROPOSED

The Conference is invited to advise CBS Management Group on the issue identified in this document:

Issue: Seamless GDPFS Implementation plan

Appendix: Draft Implementation Plan

CBS TECO 2018/Doc. 4.3, DRAFT 1, p. 2

DISCUSSION

INTRODUCTIONThe Seventeenth Session of WMO Congress (2015) adopted Resolution 11 to move towards a future enhanced, Integrated and Seamless WMO Data-processing and Forecasting System. EC-68 through its Decision 55, adopted the Vision for seamless GDPFS and established a Steering Group composed of representatives from Technical Commissions and Regional Associations to address the Cg-17 Resolution 11.

ISSUES AND ADVICE ON HOW TO ADDRESS THEM

Issue #1 Development of Implementation plan for Seamless GDPFS

References Resolution 11 Cg-17 Decision 55 EC-68

Background Co-chairs of the Steering group have decided to establish a Drafting Team to work on the development of the IP for tabling at EC-70. Progress has been made in this area

Rationale for the proposed adviceAdvice for CBS-MG

What By whom DeadlineEndorse the proposed draft IP for tabling at EC-70

Co-Chairs of SG S/GDPFS

6 April 2018

Advice on recommendations to EC and Congress

What To whom (e.g. EC-70, Cg-18, …)

Time frame

Recommend tabling of the IP at Cg-18

EC-70 June 2018

Recommend to Cg 18 Endorsement of the IP after integrating comments by TECO, CBS MG and other Constituent Bodies

Cg-18 June

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APPENDIX 1Draft Implementation Plan

Future Global Data Processing and Forecasting SystemImplementation Plan

1. Introduction / MotivationAuthoritative and accurate weather, water, climate and other environmental

information is critical to enable humanity to prepare for and protect itself against natural disasters as well as in ensuring the safety and efficiency of not only day-to-day socio-economic activities but sustainable long-term planning and decision-making as well. On the scale of minutes to days, knowledge of current and forecast temperature, wind, precipitation and air quality conditions can inform everything from emergency managers responding to disasters, to airlines in flight planning, to an individual deciding what to do and what clothes to wear on a given day. On scales of weeks to months, environmental predictions can help inform farmers as to the best crops to plant for the coming season, water managers to effectively manage levels and flows of waterways and tourism-related industries to plan for the most appropriate and profitable activities. Longer term climate projections related to the expected return periods of extreme weather, water and environmental conditions inform building codes, renewable energy emplacements and infrastructure investments. And expected long-term changes in ocean levels, temperature, salinity and currents can inform coastal communities in future planning and fisheries in sustainable operations.

These are but a few examples of how environmental information is necessary and useful but, in fact, the data by itself can only take one so far. Only when combined with other data related to exposure and vulnerability, economics and society can the true power of the information be exploited for enhanced understanding of the expected impacts of the environmental conditions and then used to improve the safety, security and competitiveness of citizens and economies in a sustainable way.

The effect of environmental conditions on society is demonstrably increasing as the climate changes, as populations move to mega-cities, as reliance on infrastructure grows and as the connectivity of the modern world becomes essential to food production, water supply protection and overall quality of life.

Recent scientific and technological advances bring new opportunities for the provision of environmental information but also present new challenges. While advanced observing systems provide a wealth of data that is a challenge to utilise, there are still many crucial aspects of the Earth System that are inadequately observed. Social media provides access to contextual information and dissemination mechanisms but can be a challenge to keep up with given its explosive growth and innovation. High performance computing platforms allow us to tackle previously unsolvable problems but present new challenges for software infrastructure. Probabilistic prediction systems produce a vast amount of data requiring new technologies and methodologies for analysis and applications. These technologies will result in automation of routine tasks and the development of human-machine interaction interfaces based on artificial intelligence and it is only a matter of time before the fusion of weather information, big data technologies and business applications go mainstream and change the way people and businesses utilise weather, climate and water data. This is fundamentally impacting the way meteorology is conducted and delivered globally and is forcing WMO Members to rethink NMHS business models, recruitment and training strategies and partnerships at the global, regional and national level. 2. Background

Fifty-five years ago, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), recognizing the global nature of the environment, conceived and implemented three components of a World Weather Watch (WWW) to monitor and predict the state of the atmosphere and

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enable the provision of weather services around the world: the Global Observing System (GOS) was established to provide detailed current conditions through real-time observation and monitoring of the atmosphere; the Global Data Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) brought a network of operational centres operated by WMO Members together to make defined weather products and services operationally available to WMO Members and relevant operational organizations; and the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) was the “wiring” that provided the means to manage, exchange and share data and information, thus enabling the global nature of the WWW.

The three components of the WWW are evolving given advances in science and technology and the evolving needs of society. As the GOS evolves into the WMO Integrated GOS (WIGOS) and the GTS into the WMO Information System (WIS), the GDPFS needs to evolve based on:

The need to move beyond the World Weather Watch and leverage the trend toward Earth system modelling to provide prediction and analysis products at all timescales and to all sectors and applications that require information on the impacts of weather, water, climate and other environmental domains;

The opportunity to leverage the recent unprecedented improvement in the availability of computing power and the accuracy of Numerical Weather Prediction;

The need to consider the increasing role of the private sector in the global weather enterprise and rethink engagement with partners (e.g. UN Environment Programme, International Civil Aviation Organization, etc); and

The need for increased effectiveness and efficiency in delivering on the core purpose of WMO.

The Seventeenth World Meteorological Congress (Cg-17, 2015 - Resolution 11 Addendum 1) decided “to initiate a process for the gradual establishment of a future enhanced integrated and seamless WMO Data-processing and Forecasting System” and, among other things, requested Executive Council to “submit a comprehensive report on the integrated and seamless WMO Data-processing and Forecasting System to Eighteenth Congress”. Subsequently, the sixty-eighth Session of WMO Executive Council (EC-68, 2016) – Decision 55 Addendum 2) decided to establish a Steering Committee to address Resolution 11 (Cg-17) and EC-69 (2017) requested that it “Complete the Implementation Plan of the seamless Data-Processing and Forecasting System for consideration by the Executive Council at its seventeenth session (2018)”.

3. Where is the GDPFS today?The current GDPFS is loosely organized as a network of Global, Regional and

National-level Centres that produce a variety of defined outputs related to weather, climate and water and for specialized applications such as emergency response to nuclear accidents and space weather forecasts during solar events. This network, as of March 2018, consists of:

8 World Meteorological Centres (WMC); 26 Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMC) with Geographical

Specialization, 23 with General Purpose Activity and 19 for Specialized Activity;

13 Global Producing Centres for Long-range Forecasts (GPCLRF); 8 Regional Climate Centres (RCC) and 3 Regional Climate Centre-Networks; 5 Lead Centres (LC) for non-real-time coordination activities: one Centre each

for coordination of Long-range Forecast (LRF) verification, Multi-model Ensemble; Deterministic NWP verification (DNV), EPS verification and Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction (ACDP).

The Manual on the GDPFS (WMO-No. 485), revised and published in February 2018, provides the overall framework of technical regulations for the GDPFS and includes

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the criteria for designation of operational centres as determined jointly with technical commission(s) and Regional Associations

The GDPFS has proven to be an effective mechanism to make these modeling and prediction capabilities available to countries that do not have them so that they can provide better meteorological services to their populations. This is achieved, in most cases, by taking high value information from advanced centres and passing it on to less advanced countries through Regional Centres, tailored to their needs and capabilities. However, more and more, the private sector is becoming active in the delivery of value-added meteorological services around the world. The growth of “the Cloud”, the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the explosion of data availability from the Internet of Things (IoT) and new space-borne platforms (both traditional public-funded missions and private-funded missions and micro-sat constellations) as well as the rapid growth of social and other media as innovative ways of disseminating and accessing information, is leading to many non-traditional ways of generating and delivering weather, water and climate data. The GDPFS evolution needs to take advantage of these developments in order to increase its usefulness and maintain its relevance to Members, or traditional forecasting operations will not be able to keep up with ever-growing data volumes and increased expectations of customers and stakeholders, while continuing to ensure data are made available to those who are unable to generate or access this information.

4. Vision for a future integrated, seamless GDPFSEC-68 endorsed a Vision for a future Seamless Global Data-processing and

Forecasting System (S/GDPFS) with the following characteristics. Building on the existing architecture, the future S/GDPFS will become a

flexible and adaptable ecosystem of independent centres that will expand and strengthen prediction of the environment, making impact-based forecasts and risk-based warnings accessible, thus enabling Members and partners to make better-informed decisions.

The S/GDPFS will provide standardized state-of-the-art interfaces to facilitate partnerships and collaboration globally and regionally among jurisdictions, academia and the private sector to access and make available related information of relevance to the mandate of WMO across all timescales and domains of the Earth system.

The S/GDPFS will, as much as possible, share authoritative weather, water, climate and related environmental data, products and services freely and openly and in a viable and sustainable way, ensuring no Members are left behind.

As stated in the draft WMO strategic plan for 2020-2023, the fundamental responsibility of GDPFS (Strategic Objective 2.3) will be to enable access to and use of the state-of-the-art numerical analysis and prediction products at all temporal and spatial scales. The purpose of a GDPFS is therefore: to identify and develop new approaches by anticipating emerging technologies and techniques; helping to define new roles for meteorologists in optimizing the “human/ machine mix” to extract insight and value from the wealth of model and observational data; learning from the wider world of academic and private sector science and technology; and recognizing and nurturing NMHS’s existing capabilities and those that need to be developed. This in turn, will enable the hydro-meteorological community to better serve the needs of their customers and key stakeholders.

Assessment of evolving capabilities combined with insight into the requirements of meteorologists and end users will be a vital component of a future S/GDPFS, but so too will be the role of research for pull-through of new capabilities into operations and to feed the needs of users and meteorologists back into research (the so called R2O and O2R functions). Using these new approaches will quickly address some of the greater forecasting challenges. These time-bounded activities will need to assemble experts from

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across the disciplines within WMO and beyond to solve problems and deliver useful, beneficial solutions.

One may imagine a S/GDPFS in 2035, with the following attributes: The overall accuracy of state of the art global prediction models have

improved enough to add 1.5 days of overall predictability. Global models have resolutions below 5km, and mesoscale models significantly below 1km, down to a few tens of meters in urban areas for example.

There is a greater emphasis on probabilistic forecasting and coupled Earth system modelling to improve predictions over longer-time scales and climate simulations and sub-seasonal and seasonal time scales are achieved with full predictive skill.

The system enables not only prediction, but historic and contemporary analyses as well

The system has evolved through partnership agreements that allow it to absorb or carry information produced either by the private sector, or by other organizations related to the traditional NMHS's.

Embedded in the design of the system is an interactive real-time feedback communication capacity between the providers and the receivers of the data that effectively accomplishes a continual review of user requirements that informs research directions and product development.

Most, or even all, of this information is accessible as a public good product to all WMO members and their partners, and most of this information is available either in raw format as input to Decision Support Systems, or directly as impact information. It is disseminated and presented in accordance with users’ formats using point to point, or increasingly, cloud to point communication broadband technologies. It is quality controlled, validated and has metadata information associated. In the case of forecast information, it is verified.

Earth System Prediction: the seamless vision

The grand challenge of accelerating advances in Earth system observation, analysis, and prediction capabilities was postulated by Shapiro et al. (2010). In this context seamless prediction was introduced for sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction to span the boundary between weather and climate (Brunet et al. 2010). These authors extended the use of seamless beyond the realm of atmospheric predictions to include the consideration of biophysical, medical, and socioeconomic factors pertinent to successful decision making.

At the World Weather Open Science Conference (2014) seamless prediction was used more generally to cover timescales from minutes to months, considering all compartments of the Earth System including hydrology and air quality, and linking to users, applications and social sciences

Seamlessness is now viewed as a useful concept to express the need for information for users, stakeholders, decision makers that is smooth and consistent across the artificial barriers that exist because the information comes from different observing systems, models, time and space scales, or compartments of the earth system.

Thus, in the context of WMO, seamless prediction considers not only all compartments of the Earth system, but also all disciplines of the weather–climate–water–environment value chain (monitoring and observation, models, forecasting, dissemination and communication, perception and interpretation, decision-making, end-user products) to deliver tailor-made weather, climate, water and environmental information covering minutes to centuries and local to global scales.

5. Implementation PathwayThis implementation Plan lays out, at a high level, the areas in which action must

be taken in order to develop the S/GDPFS system, deliver the necessary research and

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innovation and enhance the accessibility of the information. A number of overarching challenges are described that need to be addressed as part of the implementation process. Furthermore, in order to close the gap between science and services, the need for a new interactive model linking science and services is emphasized.

There will be specific well-defined projects over four-year increments (including a look-ahead to the subsequent four years) to align with the WMO planning schedule. An overall principle will be to design pilot projects and benchmarks to advance all action areas with appropriate time built in for “shakedown” and realistic target dates for operationalization.

Priorities for the implementation will be set based on some key criteria including: Providing information urgently needed for decision making Ensuring the relevance of services provided by WMO members Making global infrastructure available regionally and locally combined with

local-regional input feeding back to improve the system Responding to specific geographical needs Building on existing and emerging data platforms and activities

A fundamental premise of the implementation plan is to improve and build on the solid foundation of the current GDPFS system to deliver seamless Earth System services. This implementation plan will be further developed and refined in preparation for submission to Cg-18, responding to the decisions of EC-70, in close consultation with the WMCs and RSMCs, and taking input from all relevant WMO programmes, from the WMO Technical Commissions and Regional Associations and from external partners. This initial consultation process will also help develop a process for continued collaboration during the implementation phase. 5.1. Overarching and Cross-cutting Issues5.1.1. Business Model and Governance

The business model and governance for the future S/GDPFS will facilitate the development of flexible and timely services, and open new perspectives for win-win solutions between regional, global and national partners. It will demonstrate how a broad spectrum of users will concretely benefit from interoperability, coordination, and integration. The GDPFS Manual will articulate this business model and will have built in processes and mechanisms to ensure flexibility, sustainability and long-term relevance.

Governance mechanisms will be improved to identify and fill internal gaps in capabilities, avoid proliferation of centres to avoid duplication of effort, and sharpen the WMO designation process.

Some key activities are: developing a framework in which the national and regional partners in the

S/GDPFS contribute to improving the quality of the global predictions through provision of data and through contributing their expertise to identifying deficits in the forecasts and developing impact models;

developing guidelines for Public-Private Partnerships based on the guidance from EC and Congress; and

enhancing the specification of products and services delivered by the S/GDPFS.

5.1.2. Quality Management SystemAll facilities of the future seamless DPFS platform will adhere to a Quality

Management System and will be regularly audited for compliance with designation criteria so as to best meet the requirements of users and customers. Verification procedures will be established with reporting and tracking of product quality. Mechanisms will be developed to identify end users and obtain their feedback and initiate activities to provide the necessary improvements. These user-feedback mechanisms and the

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involvement of the operational forecast desk in evaluating S/GDPFS products will ensure continuous improvement of services.

5.1.3. Training A strategy to develop a skilled, trained, knowledgeable, innovative and diverse

workforce will be implemented. The recognition of the critical need for skilled personnel in key components of seamless prediction from research to operations and services will result in a stronger emphasis on entraining early career scientists into WMO activities and providing them with attractive career paths to meet needs and requirements for the future. The development of the S/GDPFS will be accompanied by training methodologies to increase the capacity within NMHSs to use platforms, information and tools.

5.1.4. Partnership and ResourcesFacing the challenges for developing the future S/GDPFS necessitates a move

away from an isolated view on each major component, both of the Earth system and of the weather enterprise. Key sectors of the weather enterprise and their interfaces have to be identified and ideas that enable a smooth interaction across the interfaces have to be developed jointly by all players involved. Examples for this are, among others, the interaction between the Earth system science community and the reinsurance sector or the aviation industry, or satellite developers and users of advanced satellite data.

Such a co-designed process that connects all relevant components of research and applications, and the key contributors, can be of mutual benefit to all parties involved, but some efforts might be required to move toward such an approach. Ways have to be sought to get all key value-cycle contributors involved to create a culture of co-designing a common vision for the future of environmental information as well as its availability, usage and dissemination.

Networks allow people with different kinds of knowledge and ways of tackling problems to cross-fertilize ideas which in turn drives innovations. To implement the future S/GDPFS ,this networking must be leveraged to promote innovation in the Earth system sciences and a better link to be established between WMO activities and related existing initiatives.

Establishing a culture of co-designing future activities that involves all players may also facilitate achieving some of the Sustainable Development Goals. It could further leverage access to financial resources, for example, from the societal sectors where effective user engagement is taking place or from international funding structures (World Bank, Green Climate Fund, Global Environmental Fund, regional banks, national authorities).

This co-designed process needs to work not only at the global level but also at the regional and local levels.

5.2. System and Services Action Areas5.2.1. Integration and Customization

The operational predictive capability of the future S/GDPFS will be integrated across multiple time and space scales from weather to climate and address a broader spectrum of user needs, recognizing that this requires an Earth System modelling approach (Atmosphere, Land, Ocean, Hydrology, Ice, Atmospheric Composition) including an effective representation of uncertainties and interfaces through the exploitation of a diverse set of observations. It will provide the data, information and re-usable content needed to analyze and predict the environment in a consistent and harmonized way. The flexibility to provide different options such as generation of tailored products from large ensemble datasets for specific user needs or providing NWP service requirements on demand will be explored.

Through this action area, WMO will evaluate and foster the development of services using the outputs and results of the Quality Management System (QMS) which

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will assess the technical and scientific quality of the service including the value to members and users.

5.2.1.1.Near-term Priorities and Actions Model/components Interfaces (Plug-ins system): analysis of best solutions and

definition of standards; Seamless Verification contributing to Quality Management implementation -

protocols and layers: definition of verification standards and verification layers (inter-comparisons, components, system, minimum skills to be applied to the system...), benchmarking in one or more pilots; integration of WIGOS monitoring tools;

Data Store Infrastructure and Analytics: interacting with WIS for market analysis and solutions; work on partnership for improved solutions;

Customization: development of procedures for relocatable higher resolution capability and development of elements of a business plan to engage key stakeholders for targeted system customization (see overarching challenges); and

Engine-Toolbox: Planning and designing phase. This will allow users to develop their own applications, making use of the data store content to analyze, monitor and predict the environment and its impacts e.g. that will enable users to combine numerical environmental prediction data, information and content with other third-party data as well as the latest science to develop authoritative, quality assured advice of the future state of the environment.

5.2.1.2.Mid to Longer Term Actions Model/components Interfaces: developing a framework that allows integration

of different models and model components across weather, climate, water and environment while ensuring that these are well configured and compatible;

Seamless Verification and Quality Management - protocols and layers: establish consolidated seamless methods for weather, climate, air-quality models to enter the operational cycles, and pre-operational phase of verification system;

Data Store, Infrastructures and Analytics: consolidated solution at global and regional scale; integration of all WIGOS observations; integration of available analysis tools (ex. existing libraries); web services applications for the development of weather, climate, water and environmental information;

Customization: Extension to air quality of a relocatable higher resolution capability that can be deployed by a number of countries from regional centres; and

Engine-Toolbox: Implementation phase

5.2.2. InteroperabilityThe future S/GDPFS will be able to exchange and use data from a variety of

sources, including vulnerability and exposure data to facilitate impact-based forecasting and risk-based warnings across different disciplines

5.2.2.1.Near-term Priorities and Actions Data standards and formats: An open discussion resulting in an

implementation plan on data formats and a uniform criterion for the required metadata across the different communities, with reference to existing conventions (i.e., Climate and Forecast Convention), while keeping the system technology-neutral;

Metadata infrastructure: an implementation plan on required metadata across the different communities (hydrology, weather and air quality, climate) that

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favours the traceability of the data. Interacting with WIS and private sectors on potential near-term solutions;

Distribution: develop a plan for distributed data and processes and their interoperability among Global and Regional centers; identify important data discovery concepts; and

Scalability: develop a plan for scalability of information systems considering large repositories of geospatial data stored in different locations and in various formats, and a variety of model's codes. Economies of scale and scope are achieved through interoperability based upon open standards.

5.2.2.2.Mid to Longer Term Actions Data standards and formats: implementation of data formats and APIs

bridging across formats; Metadata infrastructure: benchmark and implementation of metadata

solutions enabling semantic mediation; Distribution: Discoverable data with meta data allowing extraction of the data

with standard tools in place; and Scalability: pilot for scalability of information systems considering large

repositories of geospatial data stored in different locations and in various formats, and a variety of model's codes.

5.2.3. Coordination and RegulationsThe future S/GDPFS will benefit from a higher level of coordination internally (for

the integration and interaction of individual components - WMC, RSMC, NMC), other WMO systems (e.g. the GFCS – Climate Services Information System) and with external agencies and organizations. The introduction of a revised and evolving Manual on GDPFS will continue to promote the exchange of information and expertise and guarantee balanced coordination.

5.2.3.1.Near Term Priorities and Actions Internal coordination mechanisms: establish flexible mechanisms based on the

way the system operates to be designed or adapted so that its interfaces support interoperability with other systems;

Coordination Board: establish a coordination board that links to internal and external relevant initiatives; create a roadmap that allows establishing clear synergies between the weather forecasting and climate prediction communities; and

Coordination policies: develop policies on data sharing and distributions, codes sharing, etc.

5.2.3.2.Mid to Longer Term Actions Internal coordination mechanisms: a federated system where countries

combine to bring critical mass and HPC to serve joint interests Coordination Board: oversee coordination with the climate prediction and

impact community considering procedures, standards, schedules and objectives.

Coordination policies: Continued development and maintenance of policies.

5.3. Research and Innovation Action Areas5.3.1. Science for Services

The Research & Innovation component of S/GDFPS will ensure the development of novel operational products, exploit predictability on all time-space scales, adapt to new emerging technologies, and promote socio-economic research within the weather enterprise value cycle. Key elements are modularity and operational-oriented

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development of modeling and data tools, open-source strategy together with a specific data-policy for science, and tailored data for advancing earth system models. Reliable access to quality-controlled global data and models for research purposes are essential. A well-established rolling review to understand user requirements in all socioeconomic sectors acts as a key input to research in support of the development of impact-based, user-focused services.

Implement a value cycle approach to set research priorities. Co-design operational projects that rely on research advances Develop an integrated approach to research Ensure availability of data / models / tools for research purposes

5.3.1.1.Near-term Priorities and ActionsInteract with users, stakeholders and decision makers to determine the value

cycle for the key services required by WMO members and identify the corresponding research priorities;

Ensure that these priorities are addressed in the GAW, WWRP, WCRP implementation plans;

Discuss common methodologies for services in weather and climate forecasting, identify common users and vocabularies; and

Identify areas where access to observations, predictions and projections is not available for research purposes and work with WMO members to remove these restrictions.

5.3.1.2.Mid to Longer Term ActionsEstablish a culture of co-design that includes a path to impacts from the early

stages of project design, taking into account the research spectrum from fundamental to applied Work with partners outside the WMO to establish new programmes and strengthen existing programmes so as to fill the gaps in research capability.

5.3.2. Seamless prediction

All compartments of the Earth system as well as disciplines of the weather enterprise value chain (monitoring and observation, models, forecasting, dissemination and communication, perception and interpretation, decision-making, end-user products) will be considered to advance seamless prediction. Research in all relevant disciplines will facilitate delivery of tailor-made weather information from minutes to decades and from global to local. Development of quality management approaches will ensure that S/GDPFS developments are implemented within a rigorous and robust quality framework.

Action areas are to: deliver the underpinning science necessary to advance earth system

prediction through international coordination; facilitate research across relevant disciplines to provide seamless information

to users, stakeholders, decision makers; contribute to development of the observing system; and conduct research to demonstrate the benefit of advances in seamless

prediction.

5.3.2.1.Near-term Priorities and ActionsAdvance understanding of the coupling between natural processes, society and

the ecosystem and the impact on predictability;

Establish flagship projects to advance further coupling of earth system components; and

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Use ongoing projects / testbeds to advance seamless prediction across significant boundaries in time / space e.g. minutes to hours, months to years.

5.3.2.2.Mid to Longer Term ActionsDevelop and use integrated environmental prediction systems to represent the

physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of terrestrial and aquatic environments; and

Address the challenges posed by merging spatial and time information across scales from different forecast systems in terms of communication and usability of the weather and climate information.

5.4. Accessibility and Web Platform Action Areas5.4.1. Availability and Visibility

The system will provide access to data, models and products in a user-friendly manner, ensuring interoperability and integration with other systems, geospatial reference data, metadata and advanced standards and documentation. Technological aspects such as federated nodes and bandwidth issues will be considered and linked to WIS development. The whole S/GDPFS infrastructure will be visible and easy to identify. Use cases and success stories will be at the forefront, making clear the benefit of the S/GDPFS integrated value chain.

5.4.1.1.Near-term Priorities and Actions Federate existing web-interfaces and data standards for different

communities’ needs: Address the dichotomy of the weather and climate forecast data, often available in GRIB through weather services, and the climate projection data (CMIP, CORDEX), mainly available through the Earth System Grid Federation portals. Clarify the governance of the metadata and provenance solutions to merge as many standards as possible and reduce the current confusion between practices to document weather and climate data. Use the GloFAS web interface to access and exchange operational and experimental hydrological products;

Develop easy-to-use documentation for all informative contents: Develop standards for observation and model documentation. Agree on common vocabularies and strategies to document models (especially as their complexity increases) and data; ensure that there is a mapping for the different data formats; and

Develop an open layer of information: the accessibility will be enhanced by a multiple-tiered approach featuring an uppermost open layer of freely accessible information, and a well-defined data-policy for the other layers, considering a research stream, and ensuring interoperability across the layers; promote the use of Open Geospatial standards for interoperability. Set priorities for the information and data to be focused on in each one of the layers in the early stages of the service.

5.4.1.2.Mid to Longer Term Actions Federate existing web-interfaces and data standards for different

communities’ needs: International open data policies are a vital component here building on the long-standing sharing of obs (link to WIS and others). Many countries are moving to this open data paradigm which is a key capability and differentiator with commercial interests. Develop real-time verification engine for "simple" use (e.g., max/min temperature);

Develop easy-to-use documentation for all informative contents; and Develop an open layer of information: Design strategies that explain the

different policies applied to each dataset to address questions such as the free access to all to climate data and the usual restricted access to weather and air

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quality forecast data. As the service is developed in more instances, advertise the seamless products among weather- and climate-sensitive communities, partnering with sister initiatives like GFCS; Work on data policies and documentation with communities familiar with the problems of open access and reproducibility.

5.4.2. Usability: Monitoring Software and user-oriented toolsA dedicated effort and investment in software infrastructure will produce web-

tools for handling data and creating on-demand products based on core requirements; the maintenance of metadata and infrastructure will be clarified in collaboration with WIS-WIGOS. The usability of the future S/GDPFS will be enhanced significantly, considering aspects such as authenticity of the source, quality of access and cost effectiveness. Focus areas are providing tools/documentation on how to combine / interpret multiple datasets, providing guidance on seamless products (Help desk services), developing integrated web-tools for tailoring information, ensuring local ownership and developing downstream statistics.

5.4.2.1.Near-term Priorities and Actions Universal widget: Engage with institutions expert in software development

(both public, like research centres, and private, like consultancies) to define the requirements for the certification of the software used in the backend of the service; Develop a universal widget, similar to the WWIS widget, that NMHSs can use on websites and in apps, i.e. displaying real-time verifications of forecasts;

Collect user feedback: Provide solutions for automatic user feedback that receives adequate attention and is analyzed by specialists;

Online Toolkit: Develop algorithm for verifying the source(s) of weather information; and

Common Interface: this along with a toolbox and data store services would offer a single (Internet) access point for users seeking data, imagery and analytical software packages relevant to all parts of the globe.

5.4.2.2.Mid to Longer Term Actions Universal widget: Develop a universal widget, or perhaps an app, that can

verify the source of any weather information and indicate whether it is authoritative;

Collect user feedback: Create a list of KPIs for the quality of service that take the user perspective into account;

Online Toolkit: develop a help-desk service and forecaster's desk; and Common Interface: this along with a toolbox and data store services would

offer a single (Internet) access point for users seeking data, imagery and analytical software packages relevant to all parts of the globe.

5.5. Developing an interactive model linking science and servicesAchieving the ambitious vision of the future S/GDPFS requires a new interactive

model for integrating science and services. This interactive model will increase the effectiveness of research to operations knowledge transfer to provide improved weather, climate, water and environmental services to Members. Such a model will include multiple interactions between the research and operational communities to address the needs of users, stakeholders and decision-makers. During this process stakeholders assess and articulate their future needs, researchers work in dialogue with stakeholders to define and implement appropriate research programmes, the research results are transferred into operations at appropriate intervals, and the stakeholder needs and research programmes are refined taking into account the knowledge and experience gained through the use of operational products and services.

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A particular challenge for such a model in the context of the S/GDPFS is that it is founded on contributions from NMHSs. The research and innovation relies on international partnerships between NMHSs, public research institutions and the academic research community. Future development of the S/GDPFS relies in strengthening these partnerships and exploring the role of the private sector. Thus, traditional models for linking research and operations (often referred to as R2O and O2R functions) that work for a single organisation will not be sufficient here.

Some of the key features of a new interactive model are: Co-design of all activities that require research and innovation; identifying user needs based on specific sectors / applications; enabling the co-existence of long-term research projects and short-term

innovation responding to stakeholder needs; and Engaging with social scientists, impact researchers, the private sector and

economists to identify the main user requirements and deliver the necessary innovation.

Some of the considerations and questions that can help in developing this model are:

A clear articulation of research priorities and needs at the global and regional levels is one mechanism to boost innovation. One of the reasons that WMO science is at the global forefront is because of the established vision in developing long-term projects to pursue fundamental research questions. What are the future priorities for long-term projects that could attract strong interest from donors and key stakeholders? What mechanisms exist or must be developed to translate this interest into concrete research programmes?

There is a need to complement a long-term perspective, challenging the research community with short-term ad hoc projects as accelerators for technological development and networking capacity. What mechanisms can be developed for this purpose?

Currently, the involvement of the private sector in all aspects of weather, climate, water and environmental topics and the development of new technologies is increasing. What are the opportunities and risks related to research and innovation in this context?

5.6. Potential Pilot ActivitiesA key part of the implementation of the future S/GDPFS will be the definition and

carrying out of benchmarks, pilot projects and test beds. These can, for example, allow some of the more challenging aspects to be tested in a research or quasi-operational setting. Some of these will address overarching challenges or be associated directly with the Action Areas for System, Research and Innovation or Accessibility. Others will be cross-cutting in nature. Currently a number of potential activities have been identified, examples of which are given below. These will be explored further, and project and resource plans developed.

Developing and strengthening regional partnerships: Pilot projects would empower neighboring countries to work together on specific areas of mutual interest. For example, partnerships could be built around the new RSMC on nowcasting in Japan and the existing SWFDP to co-design activities, develop products of mutual benefit and work together on verification. Such projects can draw on experience from existing activities such as the SWFDPs and Regional Climate Outlook Forums.

Advance seamless prediction at the weather-climate interface: a joint activity of the Lead centre for long-range forecasting and the Seasonal-to-subseasonal Prediction Project to enhance visibility of the lead centre, improve access to data and quantify its usage, define and implement an interactive science-to-services approach based on the value cycle for selected applications.

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Develop Public-Private Partnerships: Pilot projects in the field of big data and analytics could be used to demonstrate the potential of bringing the applications to the data.

Develop Integrated Air Quality Prediction and Forecast Systems in Africa: a pilot activity envisaged under the auspices of Global Atmosphere Watch to develop monitoring, analysis and forecasting systems from Pan-African to Urban scale to inform populations of expected acute pollution events.

Developing probabilistic hydro-meteorological products: a pilot project linking the CHAMP1 project with GLOFAS2 to develop experimental hydrological products such as ensemble streamflow forecasts, flood warnings, and net basin supply.

Assessing future multiscale requirements: use a Flagship such as the Polar Prediction Project to look at the stakeholder requirements with the aim of identifying how the future requirements might develop across a range of time and space scales.

6. Benefits of S/GDPFS Members are enabled to harness the power of environment prediction; Enhanced information is available to make quicker and better decisions; Improved access to information and data by NMHS saves time and resources,

allowing them to add more value to their services. NMHSs will have the tools and skills to handle the growing and complex data

and information; NMHSs will have more time to apply skills and expertise through further

automation of routine tasks; New observations, new science and new technologies are pulled through into

operational services; and By 2025, in line with WIS2 implementation plan milestones, WMO will have

closed the gap between the developed and developing NMHSs with all members benefiting from a truly transformative S/GDPFS.

7. Planning (Timeline, decisions needed, resources)While this IP can be considered somewhat of a “roadmap” it is by no means the

detailed work plans that are needed to identify specific deliverables, their inter-dependencies, the resources required and identification of responsible persons or working groups in carrying them out. Once the Steering Group has established the governance of S/GDPFS it will be important to task development of detailed plans for implementation to the various Constituent Bodies and their working structures as soon as possible.

The Steering Group must be vigilant in terms of overarching policy concerns and from time to time review and consider the following issues to seek guidance from Congress/EC where appropriate:

Clarity of the role between WIS, WIGOS and GDPFS: the three components work together in an integrated fashion to achieve the objectives but are managed by different Departments.

Open data/Open source considerations: The default policy should be to respect the principles of Resolutions 40, 25 and 60. The S/GDPFS steering group should stay very vigilant for any issues that come up related to the free and open exchange of data and information that could compromise the

1 Coupled Hydrologic, Hydrodynamic, and. Atmospheric Modelling Project2 http://globalfloods.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

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effectiveness of the system and raise to EC and/or Congress if necessary for resolution.

Mandates and legal aspects of NMHSs and partners (e.g. flood forecasting and civil protection): in many countries, all applications and sectors that the S/GDPFS wishes to serve may not fall under the jurisdiction of the NMHS. This could limit a Member’s desire to become a Centre within the system. The steering group should continually monitor the implementation to deal with these possible conflicts before recommending designation of Centres and in fact this should be built in to the designation process.

Role of the private sector: the private sector is deepening its reach into the weather forecasting business (e.g. IBM/TWC, Panasonic) and there is an increasing move towards commercialization of data (e.g. space-based EO data services for sale). Congress and EC have noted this and are developing policies and approaches to deal with the situation. The steering group will need to keep apprised as to how this evolves and adjust its plans accordingly to be able to leverage the capabilities of the private sector in implementing an effective S/GDPFS.

Adaptable governance model: To start, it will be necessary to engage and involve all Technical Commissions and Regional Associations in the implementation of the S/GDPFS. However, it must be recognized that Cg-17 directed the Executive Council to conduct a review of the constituent bodies of the WMO to ensure that it is operating as effectively and efficiently as possible. This could result in a restructuring of the constituent bodies, and this plan needs to be flexible enough to adapt to whatever changes may come.

Linkages with GFCS, UNISDR (Sendai Framework for DRR), the UNFCC Paris Agreement and the UN Sustainable Development Goals

The Design and development phase will continue until at least the end of 2019 in order to consolidate project participants and contributing stakeholders. Following approval of the implementation plan by Cg-18 (2019), initial implementation activities will start in mid-2019 and by 2025, the core services required for the operation of S/GDPFS will be fully operational. At this time, legacy message switching operations will be decommissioned and the GTS as it works today will be phased out, so it will be important that S/GDPFS implementation aligns to this key milestone.

The S/GDPFS implementation plan will help Members understand when the transition to S/GDPFS begins, when services and capability are available for use and when the transition period is expected to be complete. The S/GDPFS implementation programme will adopt an industry-recognized approach to project, programme and portfolio management (P3M), establishing the necessary structures and accountabilities to ensure effective governance of the implementation.

Building on experience from SWFDP, a Project Office with a full-time programme manager should be established within the Secretariat to coordinate the implementation and support of all implementation activities.

The Project Office will: Ensure that S/GDPFS is aligned with the long-term goals and strategic

objectives outlines in the WMO Strategic Plan; Have responsibility for developing and monitoring S/GDPFS benefits

framework; Support all implementation activities, including coordination with a future

stakeholder group, participants to the programme and contributing Members; Ensure that the resource requirements to support the implementation are

understood by Members, and considered in the WMO budgeting and planning process; and

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Coordinate implementation with the different WMO Programmes and the WMO Secretariat department.

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Addendum 1

Resolution 11 (Cg-17)TOWARDS A FUTURE ENHANCED INTEGRATED AND SEAMLESS DATA-PROCESSING

AND FORECASTING SYSTEM

THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL CONGRESS,

Noting:(1) Article 2 of the Convention of the World Meteorological Organization,

(2) Resolution 36 (Cg-XVI) – WMO Strategic Plan (2012–2015) approving the Plan, as contained in the WMO Strategic Plan 2012–2015 (WMO-No. 1069), and Resolution 69 (Cg-17) – WMO Strategic Plan 2016–2019, approving the Plan for 2016–2019,

(3) The Abridged Final Report with Resolutions of the Sixteenth World Meteorological Congress (WMO-No. 1077), Resolution 6 (Cg-XVI) – Revised Manual on the Global Data processing and Forecasting System (WMO-No. 485), and general summary, paragraphs 3.1.3.1 to 3.1.3.29,

(4) The Abridged Final Report with Resolutions of the Sixty-fifth Session of the Executive Council (WMO-No. 1118), general summary, paragraphs 4.3.1 to 4.3.14 and Resolution 4 (EC-65) – Implementation Plan of the WMO Strategy for Service Delivery, and the Abridged Final Report with Resolutions of the Sixty-sixth Session of the Executive Council (WMONo. 1136), general summary, paragraphs 4.3.1 to 4.3.15,

(5) The Abridged Final Report with Resolutions and Recommendations of the Extraordinary Session 2014 of the Commission for Basic Systems (WMO-No. 1140), general summary, paragraphs 4.4.1 to 4.4.20,

(6) The Abridged Final Report with Resolutions of the Fourth World Meteorological Congress (WMO-No. 142), general summary, paragraphs 5.3.1.3 and 5.3.1.4,

(7) The Abridged Final Report with Resolutions of the Fourteenth World Meteorological Congress (WMO-No. 960), general summary, paragraphs 3.1.3.1 to 3.1.3.27, and the Abridged Final Report with Resolutions of the Fifteenth World Meteorological Congress (WMO-No. 1026), general summary, paragraphs 3.1.3.1 to 3.1.3.31,

(8) Resolution 2 (Cg-17) – Implementation of the WMO Strategy for Service Delivery,

Recalling:

(1) That the General Assembly of the United Nations in 1961 unanimously adopted Resolution 1721 (XVI) – International cooperation in the peaceful uses of outer space, and WMO was called upon to study measures to advance the state of atmospheric science and technology and to develop existing weather forecasting capabilities,

(2) That the result of the above task had led to the establishment of the World Weather Watch by the Fourth World Meteorological Congress in 1963, which included the Global Data processing System, the Global Observing System and the Global Telecommunication System operated by Members for the collection, analysis and dissemination of meteorological data and processed products,

(3) That Fourteenth Congress in 2003 included the function of forecasting into the definition of the Global Data-processing System to become the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS), 258 ABRIDGED FINAL REPORT OF THE SEVENTEENTH WORLD METEOROLOGICAL CONGRESS

Noting further :


That the Commission for Basic Systems at its extraordinary session in 2014 requested its Management Group to initiate a process for the development of a long-term vision for the GDPFS,

Considering:

(1) That all WMO constituent bodies and numerous subsidiary expert level groups provide a complex framework for coordination and collaboration in which a large number of decision makers and experts from virtually all Members and partner organizations address matters related to the Data-processing and Forecasting System,

(2) That emerging requirements from the services-oriented programmes, such as aeronautical, marine, agriculture, health and public weather services, as well as requirements from a wide range of hydrometeorological-related emergencies, or from implementing disaster mitigation strategies, require an enhanced integrated, holistic and seamless Data-processing and Forecasting System in order to be relevant to users’ decision-making,

(3) That an enhanced integrated, holistic and seamless Data-processing and Forecasting System could have the potential to lead to important benefits for Members and their National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and the Organization as a whole, Recognizing that the integration of the technical support to meet the ongoing and emerging requirements from different sectors of society in a single system, in a multidimensional and multidisciplinary approach, would be more cost-effective and relevant to decision-makers and users,

Recognizing further:

(1) That working towards an enhanced integrated and seamless WMO Data-processing and Forecasting System would be a major undertaking, which would be designed to improve the capability of Members to effectively provide a widening range of services to end users,

(2) That this endeavour would have an impact on the work of the technical commissions and WMO Programmes,

(3) That the integration process would be a complex undertaking that would stretch overseveral years and require the full support of all Members to be successful,

Decides to initiate a process for the gradual establishment of a future enhanced integrated and seamless WMO Data-processing and Forecasting System, in the light of the conclusions of the first World Weather Open Science Conference held in Montreal, Canada in August 2014, in particular that a seamless system encompasses several dimensions including timescales, multiple weather related hazards and societal impacts;

Urges Members and invites partner organizations and WMO constituent bodies to collaborate actively in and give all possible support to the development and implementation of this initiative;

Requests the Executive Council:

(1) To formulate terms of reference for this process, and a description of the set of products the system should produce, and to steer the activity accordingly;

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(2) To ensure the active participation and representation of the constituent bodies concerned and also the participation, as appropriate, of technical experts and representatives of partner agencies;

(3) To strengthen the link between the research activities on seamless prediction and the development of downstream related services;

(4) To submit a comprehensive report on the integrated and seamless WMO Data-processing and Forecasting System to Eighteenth Congress;

Requests the technical commissions to include this activity in their work programmes, as appropriate depending on the guidance from the Executive Council, in order to fully accommodate the cross-programme nature of the integration initiative;

Requests the Secretary-General to strengthen coordination and collaborate closely with relevant partner organizations in pursuing this endeavour.

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Addendum 2

Decision 55 (EC-68)IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SEAMLESS DATA-PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMTHE EXECUTIVE COUNCIL,

Recalling Resolution 11 (Cg-17) – Towards a future enhanced integrated and seamless data-processing and forecasting system, through which the Seventeenth World Meteorological Congress decided to initiate a process for the gradual establishment of such a system, in light of the conclusions of the first World Weather Open Science Conference held in Montreal, Canada, in August 2014, Recalling further that the Seventeenth Congress had requested the Executive Council to formulate the terms of reference for this process and to provide a description of the set of products the system should produce, for consideration by the Eighteenth World Meteorological Congress in 2019,

Noting that the decision of the Seventeenth Congress was also based on the recognition of the following factors:

(1) The rapidly evolving practice of operational numerical weather prediction (i.e. cascading process, from global to regional and national levels, and Ensemble Prediction Systems) facilitating the move to a seamless Data-Processing and Forecasting System,

(2) The enhanced application of the Cascading Forecasting Process to mitigate the growing technology gap in operational forecasting between National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of developed and developing countries (including least developed countries and small island developing States) by increasing the availability of and developing the capacity to use advanced technology, information and products, especially in Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems,

(3) The emerging sophisticated requirements of users in practically all sectors such as aeronautical, marine, agriculture, health, and public weather services,

(4) The need to move to impact-based forecasting and risk-based warnings which require consideration of non-conventional information such as vulnerability and exposure in the operational process,

Acknowledging that “seamless” covers several dimensions including:

(1) Time (nowcasting, through weather forecasts for days and weeks ahead to long-range forecasts on seasonal and up to multi-annual scales),

(2) Disciplines (hydrology: flood, inundation and water management; marine and coastal environment: wave and storm surge; air quality and sand and dust storm; natural resources; energy; tourism; transport, etc.),

(3) Prediction of non-weather-related elements, including the assessment of likelihood and probability of impacts and risks associated with hazards, taking into account vulnerability and exposure information to support risk-based decision-making,

Acknowledging further that a seamless Global Data-processing and Forecasting System – an evolution of the current system – would be more agile and adaptable to support application Programmes (for example, Aeronautical Meteorology, Agricultural Meteorology, Marine Meteorology and Ocean, and Public Weather Services) and to provide not only prediction of weather-related elements but also products that support impact-based forecasts and warnings,

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Recalling Resolution 6 (Cg-XVI) – Revised Manual on the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (WMO-No. 485), wherein Congress decided that this Manual was the single source of technical regulations for all operational data-processing and forecasting systems operated by WMO Members,

Noting with appreciation the effort made by the Commission for Basic Systems, in collaboration with other technical commissions, to address Resolution 11 (Cg-17), by developing the outline of an Implementation Plan and a White Paper on the seamless Data- Processing and Forecasting System,

Noting further the research contribution to the development of a seamless Global Data-processing and Forecasting System,

Endorses the Vision for the Seamless Data-processing and Forecasting System, as provided in the annex to this decision;

Decides to establish a Steering Group (following the request of the Seventeenth Congress) chaired by the president of the Commission for Basic Systems and comprising representatives of technical commissions and regional associations, and the chairperson and co-chairperson of the Open Programme Area Group on Data-processing and Forecasting Systems, with the following terms of reference, which will be reviewed by the Council at its sixty-ninth session, as necessary:

(1) Provide guidance and monitor the gradual establishment of the future enhanced integrated and seamless WMO Data-processing and Forecasting System, based on the achievements of the World Weather Watch;

(2) Manage the integration of new components in the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System and address synergies with and requirements of all WMO Programmes and Regions, through active consultations with technical commissions and regional associations;

(3) Prepare a description of the set of products the system should produce;

(4) Complete the Implementation Plan of the seamless Data-Processing and Forecasting System for consideration by the Executive Council at its sixty-ninth session;

Encourages advanced Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System Centres to pilot aseamless system, following the approach described in the White Paper, and to share with all Members the results and lessons learnt in order to improve the process;

Acknowledges that this is work in progress and adjustments may be necessary through consultations with Members and constituent bodies;

Requests the Commission for Basic Systems to consult widely with Members and to work towards tabling the White Paper along with the Implementation Plan for consideration by the Council at its sixty-ninth session;

Requests the Secretary-General to:

(1) Continue to provide support to the Commission for Basic Systems in its effort to address Resolution 11 (Cg-17), in consultation with other technical commissions and regional associations;

(2) Assist Members in sensitizing their governments about the need to move towards the implementation of seamless data-processing and forecasting systems;

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Urges Members to provide full support to the Secretary-General and the Commission for Basic Systems in successfully addressing Resolution 11 (Cg-17).

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Documents

CBS Technical Conference 2018meetings.wmo.int/cbs-teco-2018/English/CBS-TECO-2018-Doc... · Web viewOn the scale of minutes to days, knowledge of current and forecast temperature,