8/3/2019 CBRE Retail Market Monthly October 2010
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Economic Indicators
MONTHLY SUMMARY
Economic Indicators
UK retail sales (excluding
on-year sales volumes ro
Retail Sales Y-on-Y (ONS)
Monthly Indicators
House Prices (Nationwide)
Cons. Confid. (GFK NOP)
Retail Sales M-on-M (ONS)
stores. Whilst it is difficult
quarter suggests that con
The UKs economy grew
anticipated. However, co
softened in recent month
The deficit reduction plan
CBRE Three Monthly Outlook
Retail Sales
Cons. Confid.
a million public sector jo
taken up by the private sthere will be a significant
operating within regions
limited opportunities in th
Retailer Performance
Inflation RPI
across retail sectors. Onli
performance of ASOS, w
financial year. Looking fo
quarters of the extra spen
In the fashion sector, twoMatalan, reported positiv
Interest Rates
All Retail
Rental Growth M-on-M
Shops
Retail Warehouses
roperty tats the current market. In coCarpetright have all
post
this trend through a vari
portfolio and store refurb
Property Performance
Retail property witnessed
Shopping Centres
All Property
Equivalent Yields M-on-M
mon , w o a re urns
sub sectors was evenly m
the year to date with tota
Rents & Yields
Rental values were flat in
high-street shops have b
Prime Shopping Centres
Prime R/W (open user)
Prime R/W (bulky user)
falling just 0.7%.
Investment yields on pri
other classes remained st
Investment
After a slow start to Q3,
a
,
transactions (Source: Pr
sentiment remains cautio
and medium term.
MarketView
Retail Market Monthly
CB RICHARD ELLIS
October 2010
fuel) remained flat over the previous month in September.
Year-
se by 1.8%, the growth being driven by clothing and footwear
to read too much into the monthly figures, the trend over
the
sumers may be starting to rein in their expenditure.
by 0.8% in the third quarter, a stronger recovery than had
been
sumer confidence, hiring intentions and housing activity have
all
as uncertainty over future economic performance persists.
set out by the Chancellor is estimated to cost in the order of
half
s by 2015. The government believes that this reduction will
be
ctor. Irrespective of how the private sector performs in this
task,geographical disparity in the take up of employment.
Retailers
hat have a high proportion of public sector employment, and
e private sector, are likely to come under pressure going
forward.
ne sales continue to grow at pace, highlighted by the strong
ho reported UK retail sales up 26% over the first half of
the
rward to Christmas, online sales are forecast to account for
three
ding growth of 1.9%, forecast on last year (Source:
Verdict).
retailers from opposite ends of the price spectrum, Burberry
ande half yearly results, illustrating the importance of brand
identity in
trast, a number of other retailers including Argos, WH Smith
and
d more modest figures. These retailers have sought to
reverse
ty of measures including diversification, streamlining of
the
ishment.
a marginal dip in performance in September over the previous
o . c ar s on y n ex . er ormance across e
atched. Shopping centres have been the best performing sector
in
l returns of 14.0%.
September (CB Richard Ellis Monthly Index). In the year to
date,
een the worst performing sector, with rents down 2.1%.
Shopping
. . ,
e high-street shops moved in by 10 basis points in October,
all
able on the preceding month (see table on following page).
commercial property investment transactions picked up
markedly
2010, CB Richard Ellis, Inc.
. , .
operty Data). Despite the strong end to the quarter,
investor
us given concerns over the strength of the economy in the
short
8/3/2019 CBRE Retail Market Monthly October 2010
2/2
y RETAIL SALES *
Monthly Data M-o-M % Y-o-Y %
Retail Sales Value 0.6 3.3
e a a es o ume . .
Foods Stores (value) 0.8 1.7
Food Stores (volume) 0.1 -2.3
Non-Food Stores (value) 0.5 4.0
Non-Food Stores (volume) 0.1 3.8
Source: ONS
* Excluding automotive fuel
%, 1 Month
SectorsTotal
ReturnCapitalGrowth
RentalGrowth R
All Retail 0.7 0.3 0.0
Shops 0.7 0.3 0.3
Retail W/H 0.8 0.3 -0.1
,
Shopping Centres 0.7 0.2 -0.2
All Property 0.8 0.3 0.0
PROPERTY INVESTMENT YIELDS, OCTOBER 2010
SectorsEquivalentYields %
Prime Shops 4.75
Good Secondary Shops 6.00
Secondary Shops 8.75
Prime Shopping Centres 5.50
Best Secondary Shopping Centres 6.50
AVERAGE NEW INDEPENDENT FORECASTS FOR
Note: Prime yields refer to an equivalent yield for a prime
(well specified, well located and rack re
2010
GDP 1.6
Private Consumption % 0.9
For more information regarding the MarketView, please co
nemp oyment , mns c aimant .
Employment growth % -0.5
Inflation % CPI Q4 2.7
Official Bank Rate Q4 % 0.5
Source: HM Treasury, Comparison of Independent Forecasts,
September 2010. *2012 from
Ciaran Bird Bruce NutmanExecutive Director Executive
DirectorHead of UK Retail Retail Investmentt: +44 20 7182 2414 t:
+44 20 7182 2408e: [email protected] e:
[email protected]
sc a mer c ar sInformation herein has been obtained from sources
believed to be reliable.guarantee, warranty or representation about
it. It is your responsibility to inassumptions or estimates used
are for example only and do not represent texclusively for use by
CB Richard Ellis clients, and cannot be reproduced w Copyright 2010
CB Richard Ellis
CB RICHARD ELLIS
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Monthly Data M-o-M % Y-o-Y %
Consumer Confidence (GFK)
n a on . .
Inflation (RPI) -0.1 4.6
ILO Unemployment Rate - 7.8
Base Rate (Bank of England) 0.5 0.5
House Prices (Nationwide) -0.7 1.4
Source: ONS (unless stated)
%, Year-to-date %, 12 Months
otaleturn
CapitalGrowth
RentalGrowth
TotalReturn
CapitalGrowth
RentalGrowth
12.9 7.8 -1.6 26.6 18.6 -2.8
11.2 6.3 -2.1 21.2 13.7 -3.8
13.2 8.0 -0.7 32.7 24.4 -1.3
14.0 8.7 -2.0 25.6 17.5 -3.4
13.3 7.9 -1.0 24.9 16.7 --2.1
SectorsEquivalentYields %
Secondary Shopping Centres 7.75
Retail W/H: Prime open user (inc fashion) 5.25
Retail W/H Prime bulky user 6.50
Retail W/H Secondary 8.50
Prime Supermarkets 4.75
K ECONOMY(% change on year earlier)
nted) property let to a financially strong tenant on a lease
with a minimum of 15 years unexpired.
2011 2012*
1.8 2.2
1.3 n/s
ontact:
. .
-0.1 n/a
2.5 1.8
1.3 1.9
edium term forecasts made in August 2010
Jonathan De Mello Tom McDonoughSenior Director Associate
Director Retail Consultancy Retail Consultancy
t: +44 20 7182 2640 t: +44 20 7182 3326 e:
[email protected] e: [email protected]
While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and
make nodependently confirm its accuracy and completeness. Any
projections, opinions,he current or future performance of the
market. This information is designedithout prior written permission
of CB Richard Ellis.
2010, CB Richard Ellis, Inc.
