8
1 First Congressional District Registered Voter Sample = 492 Margin of Error = +/- 4.4% 29% Cell Phones, 71% Landlines This upcoming August, Brian Schatz and Colleen Hanabusa [candidate name order randomized] will face each other in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, and Neil Abercrombie and David Ige [candidate name order randomized] will run in the Democratic primary for Governor. In Hawaii, you can only vote in one party’s primary—you must choose between voting in the Democratic Primary, the Republican primary, or another party’s primary. What are you most likely to do on primary day in August? DemScreen Democratic 65% GOP 19% Other/None 7% Unsure 9% Total 100% Likely Democratic Primary Voter Sample = 323 Margin of Error = +/- 5.4% --The Democratic primary in August will also include a contest for the First District Congressional seat currently held by Colleen Hanabusa. The announced candidates include State Senator Will Espero; State Senator Donna Mercado Kim; State Representative Mark Takai; Honolulu Councilman Ikaika Anderson; and Honolulu Councilman Stanley Chang [candidate names presented in varied orders]. If you vote in this primary, what would you do? CD1Rep Chang 7% Anderson 5% Takai 20% Kim 25% Espero 8% Unsure 36% Total 100%

CB February 2014 CD 1 Congressional Primary

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: CB February 2014 CD 1 Congressional Primary

1

First Congressional District Registered Voter Sample = 492Margin of Error = +/- 4.4%29% Cell Phones, 71% Landlines

This upcoming August, Brian Schatz and Colleen Hanabusa [candidate name order randomized] will face each other in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, and Neil Abercrombie and David Ige [candidate name order randomized] will run in the Democratic primary for Governor. In Hawaii, you can only vote in one party’s primary—you must choose between voting in the Democratic Primary, the Republican primary, or another party’s primary. What are you most likely to do on primary day in August?

DemScreenDemScreenDemScreen

Democratic 65% GOP 19%

Other/None 7%

Unsure 9%

Total 100%

Likely Democratic Primary Voter Sample = 323Margin of Error = +/- 5.4%

--The Democratic primary in August will also include a contest for the First District Congressional seat currently held by Colleen Hanabusa. The announced candidates include State Senator Will Espero; State Senator Donna Mercado Kim; State Representative Mark Takai; Honolulu Councilman Ikaika Anderson; and Honolulu Councilman Stanley Chang [candidate names presented in varied orders]. If you vote in this primary, what would you do?

CD1RepCD1RepCD1Rep

Chang 7% Anderson 5%

Takai 20%

Kim 25%

Espero 8%

Unsure 36%

Total 100%

Page 2: CB February 2014 CD 1 Congressional Primary

2

--How do you feel about Barack Obama’s job performance as President?

ObamaObamaObama

Approve 71% Disapprove 25%

Unsure 4%

Total 100%

Demographics (Likely Democratic Primary Voters, First Congressional District)

SexSexSex

Male 44% Female 56%

Refused 0%

Total 100%

AgeAgeAge

Under 50 23% Fifty and over 77%

Total 100%

Race_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_Ethnicity

Caucasian 25% Japanese 36%

Filipino 11%

Hawaiian 5%

Chinese 8%

Hispanic 1%

Other/Mixed 14%

Total 100%

Page 3: CB February 2014 CD 1 Congressional Primary

3

PoliticsPoliticsPolitics

Liberal/progressive 31% Moderate 40%

Conservative 17%

Unsure 12%

Total 100%

PartyPartyParty

Democrat 72% Republican 8%

Independent 17%

Unsure 3%

Total 100%

EducationEducationEducation

No degree 2% HS graduate 13%

College Graduate 24%

Some/Assoc/Voc 26%

Grad Degree 33%

Refused 2%

Total 100%

Military_FamilyMilitary_FamilyMilitary_Family

Yes 64% No 33%

Refused 3%

Total 100%

Union_FamilyUnion_FamilyUnion_Family

Yes 36% No 61%

Refused 3%

Total 100%

Page 4: CB February 2014 CD 1 Congressional Primary

4

IncomeIncomeIncome

Under $50,000 20% $50,000 - $99,999 36%

$100,000 or more 27%

Refused 16%

Total 100%

Opinion Crosstabs

CD1Rep * Governor CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Governor CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Governor CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Governor CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Governor CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Governor Crosstabulation% within Governor% within Governor% within Governor% within Governor% within Governor% within Governor

GovernorGovernorGovernor

Abercrombie Ige Unsure

CD1Rep Chang 7% 6% 4%CD1RepAnderson 6% 6% 1%

CD1Rep

Takai 15% 29% 8%

CD1Rep

Kim 23% 30% 15%

CD1Rep

Espero 14% 4% 4%

CD1Rep

Unsure 36% 25% 68%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Governor * CD1Rep CrosstabulationGovernor * CD1Rep CrosstabulationGovernor * CD1Rep CrosstabulationGovernor * CD1Rep CrosstabulationGovernor * CD1Rep CrosstabulationGovernor * CD1Rep CrosstabulationGovernor * CD1Rep CrosstabulationGovernor * CD1Rep CrosstabulationGovernor * CD1Rep Crosstabulation% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep

CD1RepCD1RepCD1RepCD1RepCD1RepCD1Rep

Chang Anderson Takai Kim Espero UnsureGovernor Abercrombie 36% 38% 23% 28% 60% 26%Governor

Ige 45% 56% 65% 53% 24% 26%Governor

Unsure 18% 6% 12% 18% 16% 48%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Page 5: CB February 2014 CD 1 Congressional Primary

5

CD1Rep * Senate CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Senate CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Senate CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Senate CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Senate CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Senate Crosstabulation% within Senate% within Senate% within Senate% within Senate% within Senate% within Senate

SenateSenateSenate

Schatz Hanabusa Unsure

CD1Rep Chang 10% 3% 4%CD1RepAnderson 6% 3% 4%

CD1Rep

Takai 15% 27% 9%

CD1Rep

Kim 25% 31% 9%

CD1Rep

Espero 10% 5% 7%

CD1Rep

Unsure 35% 31% 67%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Senate * CD1Rep CrosstabulationSenate * CD1Rep CrosstabulationSenate * CD1Rep CrosstabulationSenate * CD1Rep CrosstabulationSenate * CD1Rep CrosstabulationSenate * CD1Rep CrosstabulationSenate * CD1Rep CrosstabulationSenate * CD1Rep CrosstabulationSenate * CD1Rep Crosstabulation% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep

CD1RepCD1RepCD1RepCD1RepCD1RepCD1Rep

Chang Anderson Takai Kim Espero UnsureSenate Schatz 62% 53% 30% 39% 50% 32%Senate

Hanabusa 24% 27% 58% 52% 27% 30%Senate

Unsure 14% 20% 12% 9% 23% 38%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Obama * CD1Rep CrosstabulationObama * CD1Rep CrosstabulationObama * CD1Rep CrosstabulationObama * CD1Rep CrosstabulationObama * CD1Rep CrosstabulationObama * CD1Rep CrosstabulationObama * CD1Rep CrosstabulationObama * CD1Rep CrosstabulationObama * CD1Rep Crosstabulation% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep% within CD1Rep

CD1RepCD1RepCD1RepCD1RepCD1RepCD1Rep

Chang Anderson Takai Kim Espero UnsureObama Approve 68% 63% 65% 63% 67% 65%Obama

Disapprove 32% 38% 35% 31% 30% 21%Obama

Unsure 7% 4% 14%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

CD1Rep * Obama CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Obama CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Obama CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Obama CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Obama CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Obama Crosstabulation% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama

ObamaObamaObama

Approve Disapprove Unsure

CD1Rep Chang 6% 7% CD1RepAnderson 4% 6%

CD1Rep

Takai 19% 23%

CD1Rep

Kim 23% 26% 21%

CD1Rep

Espero 8% 8% 4%

CD1Rep

Unsure 40% 30% 75%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Page 6: CB February 2014 CD 1 Congressional Primary

6

Demographic Crosstabs

CD1Rep * Sex CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Sex CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Sex CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Sex CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Sex CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Sex Crosstabulation% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex

SexSexSex

Male Female RefusedCD1Rep Chang 7% 6% CD1Rep

Anderson 6% 3% CD1Rep

Takai 22% 17% 50%

CD1Rep

Kim 21% 27%

CD1Rep

Espero 9% 6%

CD1Rep

Unsure 36% 43% 50%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

CD1Rep * Age CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Age CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Age CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Age CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Age Crosstabulation% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age

AgeAge

Under 50

Fifty and over

CD1Rep Chang 6% 6%CD1RepAnderson 2% 4%

CD1Rep

Takai 11% 21%

CD1Rep

Kim 23% 24%

CD1Rep

Espero 16% 5%

CD1Rep

Unsure 42% 39%TotalTotal 100% 100%

CD1Rep * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity

Race_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_Ethnicity

Caucasian

Japanese Filipino

Hawaiian Chinese

Hispanic

Other/Mixed

CD1Rep Chang 7% 5% 2% 11% 12%CD1RepAnderson

6% 2% 22% 4% 8%CD1Rep

Takai 17% 29% 12% 6% 11% 14%

CD1Rep

Kim 19% 19% 31% 33% 21% 100% 22%

CD1Rep

Espero 6% 3% 31% 0% 7% 4%

CD1Rep

Unsure 45% 44% 21% 39% 46% 41%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Page 7: CB February 2014 CD 1 Congressional Primary

7

CD1Rep * Politics CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Politics CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Politics CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Politics CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Politics CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Politics CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics

PoliticsPoliticsPoliticsPolitics

Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure

CD1Rep Chang 8% 7% 4% 4%CD1RepAnderson 2% 6% 7% 0%

CD1Rep

Takai 22% 17% 20% 18%

CD1Rep

Kim 15% 24% 33% 21%

CD1Rep

Espero 9% 7% 7% 5%

CD1Rep

Unsure 43% 38% 28% 52%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100%

CD1Rep * Party CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Party CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Party CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Party CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Party CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Party CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Party Crosstabulation% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party

PartyPartyPartyParty

Democrat Republican Independent Unsure

CD1Rep Chang 6% 7% 9% 4%CD1RepAnderson 5% 3% 4%

CD1Rep

Takai 22% 23% 14% 8%

CD1Rep

Kim 21% 37% 23% 16%

CD1Rep

Espero 11% 7%

CD1Rep

Unsure 36% 23% 49% 72%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100%

CD1Rep * Education CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Education CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Education CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Education CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Education CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Education CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Education CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Education CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Education Crosstabulation% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education

EducationEducationEducationEducationEducationEducation

No degree

HS graduate

College Graduate Some/Assoc/Voc

Grad Degree Refused

CD1Rep Chang 9% 5% 8% CD1RepAnderson 2% 4% 6% 5%

CD1Rep

Takai 11% 18% 24% 13% 19% 71%

CD1Rep

Kim 33% 30% 21% 29% 14% 0%

CD1Rep

Espero 9% 5% 4% 13%

CD1Rep

Unsure 56% 41% 37% 42% 41% 29%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Page 8: CB February 2014 CD 1 Congressional Primary

8

CD1Rep * Military_Family CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Military_Family CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Military_Family CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Military_Family CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Military_Family CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family

Military_FamilyMilitary_FamilyMilitary_Family

Yes No RefusedCD1Rep Chang 6% 7% CD1Rep

Anderson 6% 2% CD1Rep

Takai 22% 14% 31%

CD1Rep

Kim 23% 21% 19%

CD1Rep

Espero 6% 12%

CD1Rep

Unsure 38% 45% 50%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

CD1Rep * Union_Family CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Union_Family CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Union_Family CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Union_Family CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Union_Family CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Union_Family Crosstabulation% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family

Union_FamilyUnion_FamilyUnion_Family

Yes No RefusedCD1Rep Chang 8% 6% CD1Rep

Anderson 4% 4% 0%CD1Rep

Takai 26% 16% 20%

CD1Rep

Kim 26% 20% 7%

CD1Rep

Espero 6% 8% 13%

CD1Rep

Unsure 30% 45% 60%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

CD1Rep * Income CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Income CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Income CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Income CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Income CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Income CrosstabulationCD1Rep * Income Crosstabulation% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income

IncomeIncomeIncomeIncome

Under $50,000

$50,000 - $99,999

$100,000 or more Refused

CD1Rep Chang 3% 5% 12% 4%CD1RepAnderson 3% 7% 2% 1%

CD1Rep

Takai 10% 23% 24% 17%

CD1Rep

Kim 29% 26% 18% 16%

CD1Rep

Espero 13% 7% 9% 1%

CD1Rep

Unsure 43% 32% 34% 60%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100%