CAST Issue Paper 45

January 2010

Agricultural Productivity Strategies for the Future:

Addressing U.S. and Global Challenges

West view of the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington D.C. (Photo courtesy of the Architect of the Capitol.)

Issue Paper Authors

• Gale Buchanan (Chair)– College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences– The University of Georgia, Tifton Campus

• Robert W. Herdt– Department of Applied Economics and Management– Cornell University, Ithaca, New York

• Luther G. Tweeten– Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development

Economics– The Ohio State University, Columbus

Preface Author• Norman E. Borlaug, Professor Emeritus (1914 – 2009)

– Texas A&M University– College Station

Issue Paper Reviewers and CAST Liaison

Issue Paper Reviewers• Charles F. Connor

– National Council of Farmer Cooperatives

– Washington, D.C.

• Charles E. Hess– Department of Plant Science

– University of California, Davis

• Per Pinstrup-Andersen– College of Agriculture and Life Sciences

– Cornell University, Ithaca, New York

CAST Liaison• Henry L. Shands

– Fort Collins, Colorado

4

Agricultural Science and the Public.1973. CAST Paper No. 1

Dr. Norman E. Borlaug1914 - 2009

Introduction

• Success of agriculture• Issues this paper addresses• Issues not addressed• Correcting pathologies in the U.S.

economy• Future role of agriculture in meeting the

energy and climate control challenge• Future success of agriculture through

enhanced productivity

5

Future Demands Facing Agriculture

• Principal drivers of global demand for agricultural output

• One billion people who today rarely get enough to eat

• Projections show 2025 demand for farm products will be 143% of 2000 demand

6

Bioenergy and Bioproducts Bring About a New Paradigm for Agriculture

• We can visualize, if not see, the end of cheap petroleum

• Harvesting the sun’s energy is one approach to meeting the energy challenge

• Competition for resources will require hard choices

• Unfolding of this process will mean an almost limitless demand for agricultural output

7

Emerging Constraints on Future Agricultural Productivity in the U.S.

• We are aware of present constraints; others are emerging

• It is prudent to plan for all

8

Soil, Water and Crop Issues

• Soil erosion is a long-term problem

• Water quality and quantity are affected by farming and irrigation practices

• Bioengineered crops offer benefits to agriculture but raise concerns in some countries

9

Animal Welfare Issues

• Most people recognize that animal agriculture is “under fire” in some areas

• Society as a whole will largely determine and set social and moral standards in animal agriculture

• Certain production practices, if implemented, will place further demands on agriculture

10

Endangered Species Act

• Preserving diversity comes at a price

• We must weigh costs vs. benefits

11

Fertilizer Resources

• Sustainability of agriculture requires a sustainable source of plant nutrients

─ Nitrogen

─ Potassium

─ Phosphorus

12

Global Warming

• Global warming will have an influence on agriculture by affecting the demand for natural resources

─ the crops we grow

─ the location of crop production

─ the availability of water: some areas too much, other areas too little

13

Major Issues Facing Agricultural Productivity Outside the U.S.

• Must consider agriculture from a global perspective– China: expected growing demand for food

has not affected global ecosystem in past decade

– India: great potential for increased production– Brazil: continued growth of agriculture is

possible, but there are environmental concerns

– Sub-Saharan Africa: recent increases in agricultural GDP, but significant challenges remain

14

Strategies to Meet Future Agriculture Needs for Agricultural Output

• Success requires a supportive institutional structure

• Generally, this support must come from the public sector

15

Assist Less-Developed Countries (LDC)

• Approaches

– Provide food and medical support

– Help build institutional and intellectual capacity

– Develop international agreements and trade

• Must be greater commitment for sustained support for research

16

The “Next Green Revolution”

• Strong commitment to science is necessary to meet future challenges

• Remember Dr. Borlaug’s challenge

• How do we go about making the Next Green Revolution happen?

17

Commitment of ALL branches of Science

• Basic science

• Applied science

• Classical genetics

• Biotechnology

• Other areas such as nanotechnology

18

A Few Ideas That We Suggest Should Be Considered

• Enabling C3 plants to utilize the C4 photosynthetic pathway

• Nitrogen fixation in non-legumes

• Incorporating the process of apomixes into crop plants

• Improving pest resistance in plants

• Improving energy efficiency of plants

19

What is the Commitment to Agricultural Research to Bring about Another Green Revolution?

• Linkage between agricultural research and productivity is unquestioned

• Encouraging support for research and development beginning in the 1960s

• Maintained level until early 1990s• Gradual increase in support for research

since 2000• Bottom line: “We must strengthen our

commitment to research!”

20

Conclusions

• Challenges are real

• Agriculture’s challenge is food, feed, fiber, flowers, and now fuel or energy

• Convergence of so many at one time is unprecedented

21

Strategies for Meeting the Challenges

• Meeting the challenges of maintaining and enhancing agricultural productivity requires broad-based support

• It will require constant public commitment to acquire adequate funding for agricultural research and education

• Remain hopeful and confident

22

For a free download of the entire Issue Paper 45:

Visit the CAST Website @www.cast-science.org

Questions/Discussion