Caspian Sea Region and Oil

A modern Silk Road or

The next conflict zone?

Caspian Sea Region-Historical Background

Mongol Empire

Spread of Islam

Ottoman Empire

The Caucasus

Chechnya

Conflict in Chechnya• mid 19th Century: mid Caucasian wars with

Russian Empire. 50 years to subdue Chechens• Sufism• Bolshevik Revolution: promised autonomy• Soviets: NOT. 1944: 100,000 Chechens (along

with 7 other ethnic groups deported to Kazakstan)• Repression of Islam in USSR, but not in Chechny• Wahhabism-linked to Bin Laden• 1994-1996 war: stalemate• 1999: war resurfaces due to bombings in Moscow

(politically determined?)– Young Russian conscripts– Enormous devistation and ruthlessness by Russia

Russia invades Chechnya

Grozny, Chechnya after 1999-2000 bombing

                                               

          

Russia’s motivation for persistence

• Nationalism– 1st domino in potential string of secessions:

• Dagestan, Ingushetia, Osettia, Tatarstan in north

• Fear of Islamic world– Would allow development of another Islamic state on

its frontier

– Wahhabism and political Islams

• Oil: – Oil + Gas= 40% of Russian export value

– = 44% of gov’t revenues

“Georgia’s always on my, my, my, my, my ,my, my, my, my…. mind”

Pankisi Gorge

Armenia/Azerbaijan

Iran

Iran

• Shah of Iran: 1941-1979– Some reforms in education, land redistribution,

development etc. but also increasing disparities in wealth from oil, supported by US

– SAVAK and repression of opposition

• Overthrow by Ayatollah Khomeini-led fundamentalists (Shiite Muslim)-authoritarian return to tradition and repression

• Allied with Russia over anti-Americanism and US relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.

• Enemy of US: Oil companies forbidden to do business here. Sanctions

Russian Empire (amidst the “Great Game”)

USSR

Soviet Russia Policy: The “Stans”

• 1921: USSR did not want 1 Turkestan policy

• Broke the area up into 5 republics: – Kazakstan– Turkmenistan– Uzbekistan– Tajikistan– Kyrgistan

“Turkestan”

Soviet Political Tactics to maintain Peace in the ‘Stans

• Heavily Russified (especially Kazakstan)• Also Russianized:

– cyrillic script and Russian culture– Repression of religion, especially Islam here

• Destruction of mosques and schools• These went underground

• Soviet and Nationalistic identity--not Cossack—forced end of pastoralism—”we have borders”

• Disrupted economy: pastoralism soviet industrial agriculture environmental destruction

• Elites supported Communism—handpicked local loyal soviet apparatchiks

• Divided territory strategically-Fergana valley

Fergana Valley

Independence 1991—6 Big challenges1. Political

• These are monarchies, not democracies –”illiberal democracies”– Autocratic leaders, almost kings-– Elections not free– Turkmenistan most autocratic– Uzbekistan repression of opponents of leader

Karimov– Hunger strike in Kyrgistan

• All members of former Communist elites• Weak state: little power, prestige, capability• Corruption

Corruption index

2. Economic challenges

• Economic decline– Loss of Soviet Markets– Dramatic decline in economy after1992

• Weak infrastructure: dirt roads, no roads– Landlocked: depend on Russian goodwill for

access

• Low foreign investment

3. Islamic Challenge

• Area is not Islamic fundamentalist, yet it is reviving– Turkistanis are not formally religious; only 20% attend

mosque-yet Islam is a daily part of their lives

• Social/political movement at grassroots/people sick of corruption, poverty

• Promoted from Iran/Afghanistan

4. External interests

• Russia: wants traditional economic links and control, but is worried about radical Islam

• Iran-has religious/political/economic ties, especially to Tajikistan

• Turkey: religious/Turkic speaking, pro-West• China: economic/political connections: worried

about its border• US: OIL

5. Lack of Nationalism?

• Missed opportunity in 1917– 1917-1924: ethnic movements got foothold in

other places for nationalist incubation (Baltics, Serbia)

– Regional identity (Turkestan) rather than national or ethnic ones

– Still, trying to engage in national building, but this is hard because top down movements don’t work

6. Regional Security and Cooperation

• “Bishkek 6”: Kyrgistan, Kazakstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, China, Russia– Promote regional economic cooperation– Build up armed forces in Cental Asia– Confine Taliban to Afghanistan– Oppose IMU(Islamic Movement for

Uzbeckistan) and allies– Control oil/gas routes (worried about US

interest in oil)

Kazakstan

• Extremely repressive gov

• Passive electorate

• Huge potential oil wealth: 30 bbls

• Large Russian pop in north

Uzbekistan

• 30 million people– (v. 15 million Kazakstan, 5 million

Turkmenistan)

• Famous Islamic religious and historical sites– Samarkand, Tashkent

• Most militant islamist group: IMU trying to overthrow gov; suffered in war against Taliban

• US Airbase (also Kyrgistan)

Samarkand

Tashkent

Tajikistan

• Different than other Central Asian countries– Settled, Iranian language

• 1991: weak regime backed by Moscow as buffer against Afghanistan1992-1996: civil war: Pro-Russians Tajiks v. non-Islamic Tajik minorities/Uzbeks– 50000 killed, 1 million refugees

• 1996: ceasefire Tajik(70%) % Islamists (30%)• Russia worried about this—troops on border• Russia supports president with 96% of vote

The The “Great Game” Lineup

• Russia: Armenia, Kazakstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgistan, (Iran)

• West/US: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Turkey, (Troops in Uzbek and Kyrg; wargames in Kazak)

• China: Kazakstan (economic)

• Iran: Turkmenistan, Kazakstan

Shatterbelt (Cohen 1973)

• Complex ethnic/cultural mosaic

• Location of global resource

• History of local conflicts

• Attracts interests of world powers

• Global-local alliances• Potential for major extra-regional conflicts

(could spill over) Islamic Scenarios

“Black Gold”

3 Oil Scenarios

• Gulf States Model: (Azerbaijan)– Wealth for elites: no industrial diversification, import and

exploit workers; no democracy, control by consortiaum of western oil companies and local political oligarchs

• Indonesian Model: (Kazakstan) – VERY UNSTABLE; huge deposits, strategic location,

diverse ethnicities, rising expectation (delusions of grandeur), attempts at MNC investment; corrupt repressive dictatorship, high unemployment, huge military expense, boom-bust scenario

• Nigerian Model: (Uzbekistan) – destruction of traditional society, state has expropriated

everything for oil, oil destroyed existing economy and culture, oil exports army and repression, ethnic conflict