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West Coast Publishing Dec 2014 Policy-CX Ocean Development Page 1

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Policy-CX Dec 2014 UpdateOcean Development

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Case Extension / Case Negatives.................................................................................................................5

A2: Acidification......................................................................................................................................6

Ocean acidification benefits coral........................................................................................................7

Aquaculture Good...................................................................................................................................8

Key to jobs and trade deficit................................................................................................................9

Aquaculture is essential to global food production...........................................................................10

Expanding aquaculture reduces overfishing......................................................................................11

Aquaculture is inevitable, but policy is key........................................................................................12

A2: Aquaculture....................................................................................................................................13

Marine Debris Turn............................................................................................................................14

Aquaculture expanding globally now.................................................................................................15

A2: AUVs...............................................................................................................................................16

Inherency Ans. / Scripps CP Solvency................................................................................................17

Deep Sea Mining Good..........................................................................................................................18

Mining is inevitable and expanding...................................................................................................19

A2: Mining hurts the environment...................................................................................................20

A2: Deep Sea Mining.............................................................................................................................21

Mining hurts the environment..........................................................................................................22

Mining hurts the environment..........................................................................................................23

Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Good................................................................................24

REE Adv. - China dominates the REE market.....................................................................................25

A2: Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS)...................................................................................26

A2: REE Adv. - No China REE market dominance...............................................................................27

A2: REE Adv. - No China REE market dominance...............................................................................29

A2: Biodiversity mapping / data advantages....................................................................................30

A2: Invasive Species..............................................................................................................................31

Warming causes invasive species......................................................................................................32

Marine Debris / Plastics Removal Good.................................................................................................33

Biodiversity Adv. - Marine debris jeopardizes all life.........................................................................34

Biodiversity Adv. - Plastics undermine biodiversity and food chain...................................................35

A2: Marine Debris / Plastics Removal...................................................................................................36

Capitalism links / We must reduce consumption first.......................................................................37

Solvency turns - Clean-up efforts fail & kill species............................................................................39

Solvency turns - Clean-up efforts fail & kill species............................................................................41

Bioplastics will not reduce plastics debris..........................................................................................42




Studies CP Solvency...........................................................................................................................43

Offshore Wind Good..............................................................................................................................44

Offshore wind is increasing now........................................................................................................45

Offshore wind is increasing now........................................................................................................47

Offshore wind is cost-competitive & can displace fossil fuels............................................................48

Federal tax incentives are key to offshore wind expansion...............................................................49

Economy Adv. - Offshore wind saves billions.....................................................................................50

A2: Offshore Wind................................................................................................................................51

Offshore Wind: Studies Counterplan – 1NC......................................................................................52

Offshore Wind: Studies Counterplan Extension................................................................................53

Offshore Wind: Studies Counterplan Extension................................................................................55

Biodiversity Links - Offshore wind kills species..................................................................................56

Disadvantages...........................................................................................................................................57

Coal Disadvantages................................................................................................................................58

Uniqueness – Coal consumption increasing now...............................................................................59

Ans.: Non-unique – Coal decreasing now.........................................................................................60

A2: China Coal.......................................................................................................................................61

Chinese coal imports & consumption are decreasing now................................................................62

A2: China (Sphere of Influence)............................................................................................................63

No Link / No Internal Link..................................................................................................................64

No Link / No Internal Link..................................................................................................................66

Non-Unique & No Internal Link – China SOI violations elsewhere.....................................................68

Non-Unique & No Internal Link – China SOI violations elsewhere.....................................................70

A2: Chinese economy...........................................................................................................................71

Weak Now / Inevitable decline..........................................................................................................72

Weak Now / Inevitable decline..........................................................................................................74

A2: China is a Superpower threat.........................................................................................................75

A2: China is a Superpower threat.....................................................................................................76

A2: China is a Superpower threat.....................................................................................................77

A2: China is a Superpower threat / no nukes....................................................................................78

Fishing Industry.....................................................................................................................................79

Key to economy.................................................................................................................................80

A2: Fishing Industry..............................................................................................................................81

Uniqueness Ans. – Collapse in the status quo...................................................................................82

Politics (Agenda)....................................................................................................................................83




Top of the Agenda.............................................................................................................................84

Energy & climate key for GOP............................................................................................................85

A2: Energy is bipartisan....................................................................................................................86

A2: Politics (Agenda).............................................................................................................................87

Link Answers – Ocean policies are popular in Congress....................................................................88

No Political Capital – Obama a lame duck.........................................................................................89

General Impacts, Scenarios, & Ans............................................................................................................90

Biodiversity............................................................................................................................................91

Impacts: Key to all life.......................................................................................................................92

Impacts: Warming does not outweigh..............................................................................................93

Climate Change......................................................................................................................................94

Fossil fuels key - Clean energy transition key to planetary survival...................................................95

Federal investment in renewables is key...........................................................................................96

Federal investment in renewables is key – Volcano cooling now......................................................97

A2: Renewables investment.............................................................................................................98

Apocalyptic climate rhetoric good.....................................................................................................99

Carbon Tax CP – Solvency/warming................................................................................................100

Carbon Tax CP – A2: hurts jobs.......................................................................................................101

A2: Carbon tax CP – fails..................................................................................................................102

A2: Carbon tax CP – won’t solve warming.......................................................................................104

A2: Carbon tax CP – No global modelling........................................................................................105

A2: Carbon tax CP – Permutation solvency......................................................................................106

Global warming causes dead zones.................................................................................................107

A2: CO2 increases crop yields (hurts nutrition)..............................................................................108

A2: Warming (Status Quo solves)...................................................................................................109

A2: Warming – cooling now (volcanos)...........................................................................................110

U.S. Leadership / Hegemony...............................................................................................................111

Hard Power /Interventionism inevitable.........................................................................................112




Case Extension / Case Negatives




A2: Acidification




Ocean acidification benefits coral

Coral growth benefits from ocean acidificationBrian Stallard, Staff Writer, November 6, 2014, “Could Ocean Acidification Actually Help Coral?,” Nature World News, http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/10103/20141106/ocean-acidification-actually-help-coral.htm, Accessed 11/12/2014The researcher and his colleagues found that while intense ocean acidification is negatively affecting some coral communities, not all are being hit so hard, thanks to the natural flow of the ocean. Ocean acidification is caused by the ongoing uptake of heightened carbon dioxide from the Earth's atmosphere. Some coral communities, exposed to only a minor acidic hike, are growing faster than ever before, as heightened carbon levels are helping coral's algal symbionts to accelerate the calcification process that makes a reef. This may explain why some species of coral appear to be 'winning' in the race to survive climate change.

Ocean acidification benefits coral growthBrian Stallard, Staff Writer, November 6, 2014, “Could Ocean Acidification Actually Help Coral?,” Nature World News, http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/10103/20141106/ocean-acidification-actually-help-coral.htm, Accessed 11/12/2014Remember how ocean acidification is really bad for coral? Surprisingly, that may not always be the case. A new study of tropical corals has shown that their rate of reef-building actually increases with moderate hikes in acidification. It is only intense acidification that can harm coral. That's at least according to a study recently published in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B, which details how exactly coral structure can benefit from this usually harmful global change.



http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/281/1797/20141856

http://www.natureworldnews.com/reporters/brian-stallard

http://www.natureworldnews.com/reporters/brian-stallard

http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/9513/20141010/coral-losers-climate-change.htm?exe=reporter


Aquaculture Good




Key to jobs and trade deficit

Increasing aquaculture can reverse the $10 billion seafood trade deficit and massive new jobsMario C. Aguilera, Staff Writer, November 14, 2014, “Experts Address Aquaculture’s Future at Scripps Forum,” Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/experts-address-aquacultures-future-scripps-forum, Accessed 11/20/2014The United States imports more than 90 percent of the seafood it consumes, creating an annual trade deficit exceeding $10 billion, said Olin in his overview. “Much of this seafood could be produced domestically by Americans farming fish and shellfish,” he said. “If we doubled domestic aquaculture production it would produce seafood with a farm gate value (base price) of $1 billion and create 55,000 new jobs. Increasing seafood consumption is recommended by the FDA and would dramatically improve public health, primarily by reducing fatal coronary heart disease.”



https://scripps.ucsd.edu/sites/scripps.ucsd.edu/files/communications-content/field_attachment/2014/OlinSIOAquacultureFinal1.pdf

http://ucsd.edu/

http://scripps.ucsd.edu/


Aquaculture is essential to global food production

Research proves aquaculture is essential to global food productionJessica Knoth, Staff Writer, October 23, 2014, “The future of food production,” The Daily (University of Washington), http://dailyuw.com/archive/2014/10/23/science/aquaculture#.VG40LIvF_K1, Accessed 11/20/2014Aquaculture is a growing industry, and sustainable seafood is a viable option for hungry mouths. Modern aquaculture, or the farming of seafood, is relatively new, having only been around for approximately 30 years. Researchers at the UW believe aquaculture is a viable option for the future of food production. Especially in areas like Western Washington, which has extensive sea shores and people who care about clean water initiatives. “There’s a harsh reality that we will have 9 billion people accumulated on the earth in the next few decades,” said Daniel Schindler, an aquatic and fishery science researcher at the UW. “We need to feed people, and people want to eat high quality food.”




Expanding aquaculture reduces overfishing

Expanding aquaculture removes the need to overfishJessica Knoth, Staff Writer, October 23, 2014, “Aquaculture,” The Daily, http://dailyuw.com/archive/2014/10/23/science/ aquaculture#.VFuVmfmoqSo, Accessed 11/6/2014The real problem lies in the fact that the fishing industry is at its maximum sustainable yield. The balance has been struck between the number of fish we catch and the number left to reproduce. Catching any more would tip the balance into overfishing, causing severe ecological damage. “I think that’s one of the reasons why people are invested in aquaculture,” Schindler said. “They realize that there’s probably not a lot more fish that we can squeeze out of the sea sustainably, and if we want to feed more people fish and shellfish protein, we are going to have to achieve it through aquaculture.”



http://dailyuw.com/archive/2014/10/23/

http://dailyuw.com/author/jessica-knoth


Aquaculture is inevitable , but policy is key

Aquaculture is inevitable, but now is a key time to develop guiding policies for foodJessica Knoth, Staff Writer, October 23, 2014, “Aquaculture,” The Daily, http://dailyuw.com/archive/2014/10/23/science/ aquaculture#.VFuVmfmoqSo, Accessed 11/6/2014“Because aquaculture is still in development phase, now is the time to develop good policy,” Schindler said. “When modern agriculture came to the states there weren’t a lot of environmental laws in place, but now we can implement them in the planning.” Humans have to alter the environment to produce enough food to survive. It’s been done for thousands of years. But now that there is no more land for farming, and capture fisheries are maxed out, aquaculture is the most promising food source for the future. Luckily, with 71 percent of the earth covered in water, the possibilities are immense.



http://dailyuw.com/archive/2014/10/23/

http://dailyuw.com/author/jessica-knoth


A2: Aquaculture




Marine Debris Turn

A. Expanding aquaculture development increases plastics ocean pollutionCharles J. Moore, Captain in the U.S. merchant marine and founder of the Algalita Marine Research and Education Institute in Long Beach, California, August 26, 2014, “Choking the Oceans With Plastic,” The New York Times, p. A23The problem is compounded by the aquaculture industry, which uses enormous amounts of plastic in its floats, nets, lines and tubes. The most common floats and tubes I've found in the deep ocean and on Hawaiian beaches come from huge sea-urchin and oyster farms like the one that created the oyster-buoy island we discovered. Those buoys were torn from their moorings by the tsunami that walloped Japan on March 11, 2011. But no regulatory remedies exist to deal with tons of plastic equipment lost accidentally and in storms. Government and industry organizations purporting to certify sustainably farmed seafood, despite their dozens of pages of standards, fail to mention gear that is lost and floats away. Governments, which are rightly concerned with depletion of marine food sources, should ensure that plastic from cages, buoys and other equipment used for aquaculture does not escape into the waters.

B. Plastic marine debris is fatal to biodiversityClean Water.org, 2014, “The Problem of Marine Plastic Pollution,” http://www.cleanwater.org/feature/problem-of-marine-plastic-pollution, Accessed 11/7/2014In the ocean, plastic debris injures and kills fish, seabirds and marine mammals. Marine plastic pollution has impacted at least 267 species worldwide, including 86% of all sea turtle species, 44% of all seabird species and 43% of all marine mammal species. The impacts include fatalities as a result of ingestion, starvation, suffocation, infection, drowning, and entanglement. In 2010, a California grey whale washed up dead on the shores of the Puget Sound. Autopsies indicated that its stomach contained a pair of pants and a golf ball, more than 20 plastic bags, small towels, duct tape and surgical gloves. Seabirds that feed on the ocean surface are especially prone to ingesting plastic debris that floats. Adults feed these items to their chicks resulting in detrimental effects on chick growth and survival. One study found that approximately 98% of chicks sampled contained plastic and the quantity of plastic being ingested was increasing over time.




Aquaculture expanding globally now

Aquaculture is expanding rapidly across the globeUndercurrent News, Staff Writer, November 17, 2014, “FAO: Future aquaculture growth to be greater than expected,” http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014/11/17/fao-future-aquaculture-growth-to-be-greater-than-expected/, Accessed 11/20/2014Fish farming will likely grow more than expected in the coming decade, by as much as 4.14% per year through 2022, according to a new report from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The projection is notably faster than the 2.54% growth forecast made earlier this year in a joint report by FAO and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Increased investment in the aquaculture sector should boost farmed-fish production, particularly in productivity-enhancing technologies including in the areas of water use, breeding, hatchery practices and feedstuff innovation. “The primary reason for increased optimism is that there is ample room for catching up with more productive technologies, especially in Asia, where many fish farmers are small and unable to foot the hefty capital outlays the industry requires to expand output without running into resource constraints,” said Audun Lem, a senior official at FAO’s Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy and Economics Division and one of the lead authors of the 120-page report.



mailto:[email protected]


A2: AUVs




Inherency Ans. / Scripps CP Solvency

The Scripps Institution of Oceanography already cooperates with the military on AUVs for detailed explorationRobert Monroe, Media Consultant at Scripps, November 06, 2014, “New Technology Enables Historic Finds,” https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/new-technology-enables-historic-finds, Accessed 11/22/2014Scripps’s own history of collaboration with the U.S. military extends back before World War II. During the war, Scripps researchers worked closely with military planners to create surf and swell forecasts that helped time amphibious landings and lent other expertise that gave the Allies an advantage in warfare at sea. “I couldn’t be prouder or more impressed with the Scripps team and the partnerships we established and traveled to Palau with. The diversity of skills we bring to this problem is unprecedented and spans almost all fields of science and engineering. The small team environment has allowed us to be remarkably nimble and productive in our field work, and the entire nation of Palau has been fantastic to work,” said Terrill. “Scripps participation in this effort is full circle to our institution’s research efforts to support Allied troops 70 years ago.” The AUVs used by the groups, known as Remote Environmental Monitoring UnitS (REMUS) were actually developed by colleagues of Terrill and Moline’s at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, but now commercially manufactured by a spin-off company called Hydroid. The systems are equipped with sidescan sonar that can image the seafloor with great detail. Scripps engineers Billy Middleton, Myles Syverud, and Andy Nager are experts at running the vehicles, and adept at rapidly analyzing the data for wrecks – distinguishing metal debris from natural seafloor relief. Multi-rotor aerial systems deployed by Terrill’s group are used to conduct aerial surveys over land and shorelines and also provide a bird’s eye view of dense island foliage that enables detection of wreckage. This year, Scripps engineer Evan Walsh integrated an infrared camera into the aerial system to provide aerial maps of temperature differences. A huge challenge to all the new technology is the fusing of information. Fortunately, said Terrill, Scripps computer scientist Paul Reuter remains at the cutting edge of handling and visualizing large data sets and integrating 70-year-old reconnaissance photographs into the search analysis.




Deep Sea Mining Good




Mining is inevitable and expanding

Deep sea mining is inevitable internationallyMichael Lodge, Deputy Secretary-General of the International Seabed Authority, November 10, 2014, “Deep sea mining: the new frontier in the struggle for resources?,” World Economic Forum, http://forumblog.org/2014/11/deep-sea-mining-the-new-frontier-in-the-struggle-for-resources/?utm_content=buffercf1c6&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer, Accessed 11/11/2014The global demand for natural resources continues to grow. As land-based sources decline, corporate and governmental attention is increasingly turning to an area of the planet that has been beyond reach until now – the ocean floor. Hailed as a ‘new resource frontier’, the deep seabed is home to a variety of valuable minerals and metals, which lie hidden in underwater ridges, seamounts and sediment, up to depths of 5,000 metres. At present, under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), any country or deep sea mining company that wishes to exploit the seabed needs an exploration contract from the International Seabed Authority (ISA). There has been a dramatic increase in the number of applications for such contracts.

Deep sea mining for REE is inevitable and lacks regulationRadboud University Nijmegen, Staff Writer, September 4, 2014, “Better regulations needed for deep-sea biology,” Science Daily, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/09/140904084502.htm, Accessed 11/23/2014At present, 95% of rare-earth metals come from China. Buyers (mainly Western countries) are therefore looking for alternative sources. Many have set their sights on the deep sea. However, 'harvesting manganese nodules is anything but sustainable. They are not replaceable because nodule formation is the slowest geological process we know. In addition, harvesting is technically difficult and expensive, so for a long time it was thought to be impossible. Nevertheless, experts expect this harvesting to happen on a larger scale within the next ten years, so we quickly need to agree on ways of doing this properly.'




A2: Mining hurts the environment

China and India make the impacts inevitableKota Sriraj, Staff Writer, October 2, 2014, “Deep sea resource exploitation,” The Daily Pioneer, http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/ item/deep-sea-resource-exploitation.html, Accessed 11/23/2014China is a global leader in deep sea exploration and extraction capability, with a control over 90 per cent of rare earth metals and is utilising this edge to increase strategic dominance in international waters. In 2011, the International Seabed Authority, a regulatory body of the United Nations, permitted the China Ocean Mineral Resources Research and Development Association to undertake exploration for poly-metallic sulphides in a 10,000 square kilometre area in the South-West Indian Ocean. This move resulted in an immense discomfort for the Indian strategic community, which saw the development as a geo-strategic gambit aimed at extending China’s footprint in the Indian Ocean Region. Pushed to counter this increasing Chinese dominance, India has intensified its exploration agenda by a slew of initiatives through the Geological Survey of India including the up-gradation of its exploration ships besides, commissioning the rare earth mineral processing plant in Odisha in collaboration with Japan. However, in a hurry to compete with China in the race to extract more from the seabeds, India has missed out on the crucial strategy to offset the resultant environmental damage occurring from deep-sea mining. It is essential that the policymakers recognise the need for responsible growth that accounts for the environment.



http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/

http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/author/kota-sriraj


A2: Deep Sea Mining




Mining hurts the environment

Studies prove seabed mining process wipes out ocean ecosystemsKota Sriraj, Staff Writer, October 2, 2014, “Deep sea resource exploitation,” The Daily Pioneer, http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/ item/deep-sea-resource-exploitation.html, Accessed 11/23/2014Studies have established that the technology used for deep-sea mining violates the sea floor by destroying the top centimetres of the seabed and introducing light to an environment where darkness preserves precious and rare life forms. As the ores mixed with seawater are processed in surface support vehicles for extracting minerals, this creates massive swirls of debris and sediments that have the capability to wipe out all life forms in its wake. The treated seawater, of different salinity, temperature containing trace amounts of toxic chemicals is eventually dumped in the sea, which profoundly impacts the ecosystem. During the mining operations, the site requires closure; this results in restricted movement of species both at deep and shallow parts of the sea, adding to this is the huge machines and vessels involved in the mining process that tend to cause inadvertent introduction of invasive species, cause noise, air pollution and vibration and result in fluid leaks and discharges from vessels and equipment. Combined together, these factors further contaminate the marine environment and irrevocably alter the natural habitat which is rendered unfit to support the benthic species anymore. This effectively marks the end of many known and unknown species of life forms.

Increasing deep sea mining undermines marine biodiversity and infects the food chainMichael Lodge, Deputy Secretary-General of the International Seabed Authority, November 10, 2014, “Deep sea mining: the new frontier in the struggle for resources?,” World Economic Forum, http://forumblog.org/2014/11/deep-sea-mining-the-new-frontier-in-the-struggle-for-resources/?utm_content=buffercf1c6&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer, Accessed 11/11/2014The rise in commercial interest in deep sea mining has been accompanied by an upsurge in fears about environmental damage, the potential destruction of marine life and real concerns about the impact on biodiversity. Greenpeace has pointed out that mining exposes sea life to metallic and acidic substances, which introduce toxic particles to underwater food chains. Deep sea trawling has already shown that the destruction of oceanic topography takes a big toll on fish, particularly slow-breeding species such as redfish and orange roughy. Aside from the impact on aquatic ecosystems, these issues could also have serious consequences for the livelihoods and well-being of coastal communities.

Deep sea mining destroys huge sections of the seafloorNew Times, Staff Writer, November 4th, 2014, “Scientists caution against exploitation of deep ocean,” http://www.newportnewstimes.com/v2_news_articles.php?heading=0&story_id=45817&page=86, Accessed 11/23/2014Mining is a major threat to the deep sea, the researchers point out in their analysis. In particular, the quest for rare earth and metal resources, which began decades ago, has skyrocketed in recent years because of their increased use in electronics, and because of dwindling or limited distribution of supplies on land. Mining the deep ocean for manganese nodules, for example — which are rich in nickel — requires machines that may directly impact large swaths of the seafloor and send up a sediment plume that could potentially affect an even larger area, the scientists note.



http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/

http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/author/kota-sriraj


Mining hurts the environment

Seabed mining will destroy huge ecosystems. Companies will take advantage of lax regulationsMichael Ives, AP Staff Writer (Vietnam), October 20, 2014, “Drive to Mine the Deep Sea Raises Concerns Over Impacts,” Yale 360, http://e360.yale.edu/feature/drive_to_mine_the_deep_sea_raises_concerns_over_impacts/2818/, Accessed 11/23/2014Chief among critics’ concerns is that seabed mining will begin without comprehensive regulatory oversight and environmental review. They say dredging or drilling the seafloor could potentially obliterate deep-sea ecosystems and kick up immense sediment plumes, which could temporarily choke off the oxygen supply over large areas. And powerful international companies, they add, could take advantage of the lax or non-existent review and enforcement capabilities in many small island nations of the Pacific Ocean — precisely where seabed mineral deposits are thought to be highly concentrated. “Communities are concerned that our governments don’t know enough about the ecology or the implications” of seabed mining, said Maureen Penjueli, coordinator of the Pacific Network on Globalization, a Fiji-based non-profit that has tracked seabed prospecting in the region since 2009. “We haven’t seen much benefit from land-based mining, let alone fisheries or tourism — and here we are entering a new frontier.”



http://pang.org.fj/

http://pang.org.fj/


Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Good




REE Adv. - China dominates the REE market

China controls the entire value chain of the REE marketEast Asia Forum, Staff Writer, October 30, 2014, “How Important to China is the WTO Ruling on Rare Earths?,” Economy Watch, http://www.economywatch.com/features/How-Important-to-China-is-the-WTO-Ruling-on-Rare-Earths.10-30-14.html, Accessed 11/11/2014China continues to strengthen its hand in all stages of the supply chain, including refining, production of metal, alloy, components, and materials. Over the last decade, China has encouraged nearly every major multinational utilising rare earth to move their manufacturing facilities to China or to establish subsidiaries in China. From a trailing position, China has successfully overtaken the more advanced countries in the rare earths industry and has gained enough capacity to control the whole value chain.

China dominates the entire rare earth minerals supply chainEast Asia Forum, Staff Writer, October 30, 2014, “How Important to China is the WTO Ruling on Rare Earths?,” Economy Watch, http://www.economywatch.com/features/How-Important-to-China-is-the-WTO-Ruling-on-Rare-Earths.10-30-14.html, Accessed 11/11/2014China supplies almost 90 percent of global rare earth minerals and consumes about 70–75 percent. According to a US Government Accountability Office Report, as of 2010 China controlled 97 per cent of rare earth ore, 97 per cent of rare earth oxides, 89 per cent of rare earth alloys, 75 per cent of the neodymium iron boron magnets industry and 60 per cent of the samarium cobalt magnets industry. This dominance extends to the production of key intermediate products, such as magnets —many of these products being critical inputs for high growth industries such as hybrid cars, windmills and lighting. China is assiduously building up dominant positions in the entire supply chain of rare earths. China incentivises domestic companies to produce more technologically-advanced products rather than exporting raw materials abroad.



http://www.economywatch.com/features/How-Important-to-China-is-the-WTO-Ruling-on-Rare-Earths.10-30-14.html

http://www.economywatch.com/features/How-Important-to-China-is-the-WTO-Ruling-on-Rare-Earths.10-30-14.html


A2: Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS)




A2: REE Adv. - No China REE market dominance

Multiple factors guarantee China’s power over the REE market will diminishEugene Gholz, Associate Professor, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin, October 2014, “Rare Earth Elements and National Security,” A CFR Energy Report, http://www.cfr.org/energy-and-environment/rare-earth-elements-national-security/p33632, Accessed 11/11/2014Understanding the future trajectory of China’s market power in rare earths requires a clear understanding of how rare earths are mined and commercialized. Rare earth mines take source material from the ground, use physical and chemical differences between the rare-earth containing minerals and other minerals to concentrate the product, and then use chemical processes to separate out the first material, known as rare earth oxides. Those oxides are then converted into rare earth metals, combined with other metals into alloys, processed into components like magnets, and then assembled into goods such as generators, motors, and lasers used by ultimate consumers. Surveying trends in REE supply, demand, and processing, a combination of factors offer reason to expect that China’s grip on the REE market will steadily diminish.

USRE alone can outcompete China for REE market sharesAlessandro Bruno, Staff Writer, October 8, 2014, “US Rare Earths closer to offering alternative heavy rare earth (HREE) supply to China,” Investor Intel, http://investorintel.com/rare-earth-intel/us-rare-earths-closer-becoming-wests-alternative-hree-supplier/, Accessed 11/11/2014US based Molycorp and Australia’s Lynas Corp are processing outside of China (California and Malaysia respectively) but, so far, this activity has been limited to light rare earths (LREE). So while China continues to consolidate its rare earths industry, shutting down or absorbing small and illegal operators, trying to resolve the problem of overcapacity, USRE, a domestic North American rare earth company can start to work an inexpensive solution to address the expected contraction in China’s rare earth supplies. It may not be long before Japan, which is the largest rare earth importer in the world, starts signing REE import deals with the United States. Ever since 2010, when tensions exacerbated with China over control of the Senkaku (Diayou as the Chinese call them) Islands, Japan has constantly been looking for alternatives. Its quest for new suppliers has included visits to Mongolia and Vietnam – which likely serves as one for the preferred routes for Chinese rare earth smugglers. USRE is well positioned to offer an alternative REE supply source; indeed, it is set to compete with China, as it applies its own trade restrictions.

International processing prevents China’s ability to control REE marketsEugene Gholz, Associate Professor, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin, October 2014, “Rare Earth Elements and National Security,” A CFR Energy Report, http://www.cfr.org/energy-and-environment/rare-earth-elements-national-security/p33632, Accessed 11/11/2014Beyond innovations helping to reduce overall demand, expanding processing capacity (including advances in recycling of REEs) is also reducing China’s potential market power. Chinese market share of REE processing remains considerable and it is rising in some parts of the supply chain. For example, Chinese factories (including a number of foreign-owned ones) have recently increased their share of the market for neodymium magnets to as much as 80 percent. But that market share is at current market conditions and China’s ability to exploit its high market share is increasingly constrained by processing capabilities elsewhere in the world.



http://investorintel.com/rare-earth-intel/us-rare-earths-closer-becoming-wests-alternative-hree-supplier/





A2: REE Adv. - No China REE market dominance

Manufacturers are already looking for alternatives to REEEugene Gholz, Associate Professor, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin, October 2014, “Rare Earth Elements and National Security,” A CFR Energy Report, http://www.cfr.org/energy-and-environment/rare-earth-elements-national-security/p33632, Accessed 11/11/2014Finally, manufacturers of products that use heavy REEs are carefully considering whether they can shift to another type of rare-earth permanent magnets, made from samarium mixed with cobalt, or can otherwise modify their designs to eliminate the need for dysprosium. The lesson here is that downstream markets are already adjusting to the changing supply picture through normal market mechanisms.

International competition moderates China’s pricing powerMark Strauss, Staff Writer, November 3, 2014, “How China's "Rare Earth" Weapon Went From Boom To Bust,” i09 News, http://io9.com/how-chinas-rare-earth-weapon-went-from-boom-to-bust-1653638596, Accessed 11/11/2014The rare earths market managed to attract plenty of interest outside of China prior to the 2010 incident. Motivated by expected increases in demand, investors in the United States, Japan and Australia were already opening rare earth mines and building new processing capabilities, and other investors were moving ahead on mines around the world in places like Canada, South Africa and Kazakhstan. Major investments made by the Lynas Corporation in Australia and Malaysia started delivering non-Chinese rare earths to markets last year. When rare earth prices surged in 2010, hundreds of companies around the world started raising money for new mining projects. The Rhodia Company, long established as a leading rare earths processor in Europe, ramped up its use of its existing plant capacity and accelerated plans to recycle rare earths, effectively creating a new source of supply for the global market. Although Chinese producers will still contribute a substantial majority of rare earth elements, competition from the rest of the world will moderate Chinese pricing power.



http://io9.com/how-chinas-rare-earth-weapon-went-from-boom-to-bust-1653638596

http://io9.com/how-chinas-rare-earth-weapon-went-from-boom-to-bust-1653638596

http://mark-strauss.kinja.com/


A2: Biodiversity mapping / data advantages

Federal agencies just initiated an ocean monitoring plan the solves ocean biodiversity Bob Berwyn, Staff Writer, October 26, 2014, “Feds launch ocean biodiversity monitoring network,” Summit County Voice, http://summitcountyvoice.com/2014/10/26/feds-launch-ocean-biodiversity-monitoring-network/, Accessed 11/11/2014Federal agencies are launching an ambitious $17 million pilot project to monitor ocean biodiversity, recognizing that fragile coastal and marine ecosystems face increasing threats, including climate change. “To mitigate and adapt to such threats, we need a fuller, more integrated, picture of how the biodiversity within these ecosystems may be changing, especially since marine biodiversity is a key indicator of ocean health and critical to sustaining natural resources such as fisheries,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a press release. To start, the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System is partnering with the NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research, NASA, and the U.S. Department of Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management to develop monitoring at four pilot sites: the Florida Keys NOAA National Marine Sanctuary, the Monterey Bay NOAA National Marine Sanctuary; Santa Barbara and the NOAA Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary ; and on the continental shelf in Alaska’s Chukchi Sea.

The status quo solves the data gap for biodiversity and biosecurityNASA, Staff Writer, October 6, 2014, “U.S. Initiates Prototype System to Gauge National Marine Biodiversity,” http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/october/us-initiates-prototype-system-to-gauge-national-marine-biodiversity/#.VGJNdPnF_K1, Accessed 11/11/2014The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA are funding three demonstration projects that will lay the foundation for the first national network to monitor marine biodiversity at scales ranging from microbes to whales. The U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) also plans to contribute. The projects, funded at approximately $17 million during the next five years, subject to the availability of funds, will demonstrate how a national operational marine biodiversity observation network could be developed. Such a network would serve as a marine resource management tool to conserve existing biodiversity and enhance U.S. biosecurity against threats such as invasive species and infectious agents.



http://summitcountyvoice.com/2014/10/26/feds-launch-ocean-biodiversity-monitoring-network/


A2: Invasive Species




Warming causes invasive species

Warming ocean temperatures cause invasive speciesNOAA (press release), Staff Writer, September 15, 2014, “Warming Atlantic temperatures could increase range of invasive species,” Science Daily, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/09/140915114424.htm, Accessed 11/23/2014A new study finds that warming Atlantic temperatures could increase range of invasive species. The data used in this study is critical in detecting and projecting climate-associated impacts and community shifts, researchers say. “The results will allow us to better understand how the fish communities might shift under different climate change scenarios and provide the type of environmental data to inform future decisions relating to the management and siting of protected areas," said Paula Whitfield, a research ecologist at NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) and lead author of the study.

Invasive species are inevitable and happening now. This proves there is no brightlineCatherine Griffin, Staff Writer, August 8, 2014, “How Global Warming Impacts Invasive Species: Hungry Predators Target Natives,” Science World Report, http://www.scienceworldreport.com/articles/16512/20140808/global-warming-impacts-invasive-species-hungry-predators-target-natives.htm, Accessed 11/23/2014Invasive species are one of the largest threats to native ecosystems. Locations like the Florida Everglades, for example, are under attack from multiple non-native species, such as pythons, nutria, and wild boar. Yet while invasive species have long been studied, scientists haven't examined them in relation to climate change, a factor that's greatly affecting natural systems across the globe. The conventional notion is that species from lower latitudes, which typically experience warmer temperatures than those in higher latitude ecosystems, will perform better at higher latitudes as temperatures warm. This means that, in theory, invasive species at lower latitudes will be able to spread northward. In this case, though, the scientists focused on how a trait common among certain invasive species, benefitting from "enemy release," can be influenced by changes in temperatures. This "enemy release" hypothesis holds that certain invading species succeed because they escape from their natural enemies in their native habitat. In order to test this, the scientists manipulated the presence of sunfish and water temperature using two non-native and native crustacean zooplankton. In the end, they found that increases in water temperature favored the non-native crustacean. Not only that, but the higher temperatures caused the sunfish to eat more and hunt more native crustaceans. This also increased the number of non-native crustaceans. The findings reveal that warming temperatures can affect the strength of "enemy release." This, in turn, could mean that non-native species may experience unprecedented growth in the future. That said, the researchers are still cautious.



http://www.scienceworldreport.com/reporters/catherine-griffin


Marine Debris / Plastics Removal Good




Biodiversity Adv. - Marine debris jeopardizes all life

Marine garbage costs $13 billion a year and jeopardizes life on the planetManipadma Jena, Staff Writer, October 14, 2014, “Marine Litter: Plunging Deep, Spreading Wide,” Truth-Out.org, http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/26792-marine-litter-plunging-deep-spreading-wide, Accessed 11/11/2014Imagine a black-footed albatross feeding its chick plastic pellets, a baby seal in the North Pole helplessly struggling with an open-ended plastic bag wrapped tight around its neck, or a fishing vessel stranded mid-sea, a length of discarded nylon net entangled in its propeller. Multiply these scenarios a thousand-fold, and you get a glimpse of the state of the world’s oceans. With an average of 13,000 pieces of plastic litter estimated to be afloat every single square kilometer of ocean globally, and 6.4 million tonnes of marine litter reaching the oceans every year according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), researchers and scientists predict a bleak future for the great bodies of water that are vital to our planet’s existence. A conservative estimate of overall financial damage of plastic to marine ecosystems stands at 13 billion dollars each year, according to a press release from UNEP released on Oct. 1.



http://www.truth-out.org/author/itemlist/user/49527

http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0620e/i0620e00.htm

http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0620e/i0620e00.htm


Biodiversity Adv. - Plastics undermine biodiversity and food chain

Marine plastic debris causes invasive species and contaminates the food chainClean Water.org, 2014, “The Problem of Marine Plastic Pollution,” http://www.cleanwater.org/feature/problem-of-marine-plastic-pollution, Accessed 11/7/2014Because persistent organic pollutants in the marine environment attach to the surface of plastic debris, floating plastics in the oceans have been found to accumulate pollutants and transport them through ocean currents. Floating and migrating plastic debris has also been found to transport invasive marine species. Increasingly, research shows that marine life that ingests plastics coated with pollutants can absorb these pollutants their bodies. Plastic debris is polluting the human food chain. In a 2008 Pacific Gyre voyage, Algalita researchers began finding that fish are ingesting plastic fragments and debris. Of the 672 fish caught during that voyage, 35% had ingested plastic pieces. The plastics industry, through the leadership of the American Chemical Council (ACC), spends millions of dollars each year to convince policy makers and Californians that solutions to plastic pollution lie in anti-litter campaigns that attribute the responsibility for marine debris on individual behavior. Yet they have devoted little funding to public education and much more on promoting policies that support increased use of plastics.




A2: Marine Debris / Plastics Removal




Capitalism links / We must reduce consumption first

Capitalism makes marine debris and plastics pollution inevitableCharles J. Moore, Captain in the U.S. merchant marine and founder of the Algalita Marine Research and Education Institute in Long Beach, California, August 26, 2014, “Choking the Oceans With Plastic,” The New York Times, p. A23But, in the end, the real challenge is to combat an economic model that thrives on wasteful products and packaging, and leaves the associated problem of clean-up costs. Changing the way we produce and consume plastics is a challenge greater than reining in our production of carbon dioxide. Plastics are a nightmare to recycle. They are very hard to clean. They can melt at low temperatures, so impurities are not vaporized. It makes no difference whether a synthetic polymer like polyethylene is derived from petroleum or plants; it is still a persistent pollutant. Biodegradable plastics exist, but manufacturers are quick to point out that marine degradable does not mean ''marine disposable.''Scientists in Britain and the Netherlands have proposed to cut plastic pollution by the institution of a ''circular economy.'' The basic concept is that products must be designed with end-of-life recovery in mind. They propose a precycling premium to provide incentives to eliminate the possibility that a product will become waste. In the United States, especially in California, the focus has been on so-called structural controls, such as covering gutters and catch basins with 5-millimeter screens. This has reduced the amount of debris flowing down rivers to the sea. Activists around the world are lobbying for bans on the most polluting plastics -- the bottles, bags and containers that deliver food and drink. Many have been successful. In California, nearly 100 municipalities have passed ordinances banning throwaway plastic bags and the Senate is considering a statewide ban. Until we shut off the flow of plastic to the sea, the newest global threat to our Anthropocene age will only get worse.

Education and litter management campaigns mask the need to reduce consumptionClean Water.org, 2014, “The Problem of Marine Plastic Pollution,” http://www.cleanwater.org/feature/problem-of-marine-plastic-pollution, Accessed 11/7/2014While increased public education to prevent littering is important, proper management of litter fails to address the unsustainable consumption of resources involved in producing packaging and single use disposable goods. Furthermore, as the amount of disposable packaging and products continues to increase, controlling litter through public education and cleanup of streets and waterways requires significant and sustained funding.Clean-up is insufficient. Reducing our consumption of plastics is keyCharles J. Moore, Captain in the U.S. merchant marine and founder of the Algalita Marine Research and Education Institute in Long Beach, California, August 26, 2014, “Choking the Oceans With Plastic,” The New York Times, p. A23The reality is that only by preventing manmade debris -- most of which is disposable plastic -- from getting into the ocean in the first place will a measurable reduction in the ocean's plastic load be accomplished. Clean-up schemes are legion, but have never been put into practice in the garbage patches.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States supports environmentalist groups that remove debris from beaches. But the sieve-like skimmers they use, no matter how technologically sophisticated, will never be able to clean up remote garbage gyres: There's too much turbulent ocean dispersing and mixing up the mess. We should use skimmers in the coastal zone,




especially at the mouths of urban rivers where tons of stuff enters the ocean daily, but it's not a matter that can be compared to encircling massive oil slicks with containment booms.




Solvency turns - Clean-up efforts fail & kill species

Marine plastic pollution undermines the economy and kills multiple speciesNational Resource Defense Council (NRDC), March 8, 2014, “Solutions to Plastic Pollution in our Oceans,” http://www.nrdc.org/oceans/plastic-ocean/, Accessed 11/7/2014We're treating the oceans like a trash bin: around 80 percent of marine litter originates on land, and most of that is plastic. Plastic that pollutes our oceans and waterways has severe impacts on our environment and our economy. Seabirds, whales, sea turtles and other marine life are eating marine plastic pollution and dying from choking, intestinal blockage and starvation. Scientists are investigating the long-term impacts of toxic pollutants absorbed, transported, and consumed by fish and other marine life, including the potential effects on human health.

Clean-up efforts fail and themselves kill marine lifeNational Resource Defense Council (NRDC), March 8, 2014, “Solutions to Plastic Pollution in our Oceans: FAQ,” http://www.nrdc.org/oceans/plastic-ocean/faq.asp, Accessed 11/7/2014Unfortunately, solving the problem of marine plastic pollution is not as simple as picking up all of the pieces of plastic. While a lot of plastic pollution is concentrated in the gyres, it is not floating in a single mass on the surface. Pieces of plastic are distributed vertically, through the water column. Plastic breaks down into tiny particles in the ocean, making clean-up efforts very difficult. One of the many challenges of cleanup is how to remove the plastics from the ocean without also removing or damaging marine life.

Clean-up is impossible. Only reducing consumption cuts across all alternate causesManipadma Jena, Staff Writer, October 14, 2014, “Marine Litter: Plunging Deep, Spreading Wide,” Truth-Out.org, http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/26792-marine-litter-plunging-deep-spreading-wide, Accessed 11/11/2014 “To entirely rid the ocean of litter is an aspiration not expected to be achieved in a lifetime, even if we stop waste inputs into the sea, which we still have not. The cost is too much. Much of the waste has been broken down and is beyond our reach. To clean the sea surface of [floating] litter itself will take a long time,” Sweeney asserted. “Though there are different drivers for marine pollution in each country, the common factor is that we are consuming more and also generating more waste and much of this is plastic,” he concluded.There is no proven clean-up solution to plastics and other marine debrisCharles J. Moore, Captain in the U.S. merchant marine and founder of the Algalita Marine Research and Education Institute in Long Beach, California, August 26, 2014, “Choking the Oceans With Plastic,” The New York Times, p. A23Plastics are now one of the most common pollutants of ocean waters worldwide . Pushed by winds, tides and currents, plastic particles form with other debris into large swirling glutinous accumulation zones, known to oceanographers as gyres, which comprise as much as 40 percent of the planet's ocean surface -- roughly 25 percent of the entire earth. No scientist, environmentalist, entrepreneur, national or international government agency has yet been able to establish a comprehensive way of recycling the plastic trash that covers our land and inevitably blows and washes down to the sea . In a 2010 study I conducted of the Los Angeles and San Gabriel Rivers, we extrapolated that some 2.3 billion pieces of plastic -- from polystyrene foam to tiny fragments and pellets -- had flowed from Southern California's urban centers into its coastal waters in just three days of sampling.



http://www.truth-out.org/author/itemlist/user/49527

http://www.nrdc.org/oceans/plastic-ocean/





Solvency turns - Clean-up efforts fail & kill species

Marine debris is a global problem that can only be solved by international action(CMS) The Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals, November 2014, “Pollution in the World’s Oceans Threatens Millions of Marine Animals,” http://www.cms.int/en/news/pollution-world%E2%80%99s-oceans-threatens-millions-marine-animals, Accessed 11/7/2014A series of reports on the impact of marine debris on migratory marine species and ways to address this growing threat, are being presented at a major international wildlife conference taking place in Quito, Ecuador this week. The report: “Migratory Species, Marine Debris and its Management” reveals the dramatic impact of marine pollution on migratory species. It is one of three reports on the topic being presented to governments at the 11th Conference of the Parties (COP) of the UNEP Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS), being held in Quito, Ecuador, 4-9 November 2014. Millions of marine animals including migratory whales, dolphins, marine turtles, seabirds, seals, dugongs, sharks and rays which often cover vast distances across the world’s oceans are increasingly being injured or even killed by ingesting or becoming entangled in marine debris. “The international community must respond to the growing problem of marine debris and take decisive action to reduce the threat marine debris is posing to many migratory species and to the ecological balance of our oceans as a whole”, said CMS Executive Secretary, Bradnee Chambers.




Bioplastics will not reduce plastics debris

Bioplastics won’t reduce marine pollution and they increase global warmingNational Resource Defense Council (NRDC), March 8, 2014, “Solutions to Plastic Pollution in our Oceans: FAQ,” http://www.nrdc.org/oceans/plastic-ocean/faq.asp, Accessed 11/7/2014Besides the issues related to improper disposal, production of bioplastics is also potentially problematic. Corn-based bioplastics are some of the most widely available bioplastics today -- while these represent a positive step in the growing market toward finding alternatives to non-renewable, fossil-fuel-derived plastic, they rely on the production of corn, which raises concerns about agricultural impacts on land use, food production and global warming. These production impacts are all significantly reduced by specifying bioplastic products made from waste-based agricultural residues (residues left over after harvest from an existing agricultural land use which would otherwise be treated as waste). Replacing some current plastics with renewable bioplastics (especially those made using agricultural residues) is a promising way to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, but more research is needed to develop better products which will reduce the reliance on non-renewable resources and address concerns associated with marine plastic pollution.

Bioplastics might degrade faster, but stay long enough to kill wildlifeNational Resource Defense Council (NRDC), March 8, 2014, “Solutions to Plastic Pollution in our Oceans: FAQ,” http://www.nrdc.org/oceans/plastic-ocean/faq.asp, Accessed 11/7/2014The term "bioplastics" is increasingly being used to refer to a wide range of products, some of which are primarily or entirely plant-derived, others of which contain fossil-fuel-derived plastic, and all of which might be biodegradable, compostable, recyclable, some combination, or none of the above. While many companies are marketing these products as "green" alternatives to traditional plastics, the reality is more complex. Even biodegradable and compostable plastics are typically designed to break down efficiently only in commercial composting systems; on land or in water, these plastics generally persist long enough to cause potential hazards to water systems and wildlife. Any plastic, regardless of whether it is derived from plants or from fossil fuels, should be properly disposed of, and ideally should be recyclable and/or compostable to avoid the need to landfill.




Studies CP Solvency

We know plastics in the oceans are bad, but new studies are key to effective solutionsCharles J. Moore, Captain in the U.S. merchant marine and founder of the Algalita Marine Research and Education Institute in Long Beach, California, August 26, 2014, “Choking the Oceans With Plastic,” The New York Times, p. A23The deleterious consequences of humanity's '' plastic footprint'' are many, some known and some yet to be discovered. We know that plastics biodegrade exceptionally slowly, breaking into tiny fragments in a centuries-long process. We know that plastic debris entangles and slowly kills millions of sea creatures ; that hundreds of species mistake plastics for their natural food, ingesting toxicants that cause liver and stomach abnormalities in fish and birds, often choking them to death. We know that one of the main bait fish in the ocean, the lantern fish, eats copious quantities of plastic fragments, threatening their future as a nutritious food source to the tuna, salmon, and other pelagic fish we consume, adding to the increasing amount of synthetic chemicals unknown before 1950 that we now carry in our bodies.We suspect that more animals are killed by vagrant plastic waste than by even climate change -- a hypothesis that needs to be seriously tested. During our most recent voyage, we studied the effects of pollution, taking blood and liver samples from fish as we searched for invasive species and plastic-linked pollutants that cause protein and hormone abnormalities. While we hope our studies will yield important contributions to scientific knowledge, they address but a small part of a broader issue.




Offshore Wind Good




Offshore wind is increasing now

The status quo is already expanding offshore windHerman K. Trabish, Staff Writer, October 16, 2014, “The future of U.S. offshore wind: 2015 'is the year it happens',” Utility Dive, http://www.utilitydive.com/news/the-future-of-us-offshore-wind-2015-is-the-year-it-happens/321564/, Accessed 11/6/2014American offshore wind is on the verge of making history. Before the end of next year, construction will start on the first two ocean wind projects in the United States. There are about 7 GW of offshore wind installed globally, most in Europe, and 6.6 GW more are in construction, according to the Offshore Wind Market and Economic Analysis report from the Department of Energy and Navigant Consulting. But none of the 14 U.S. projects in advanced stages of development, representing 4.9 GW of wind power, have started construction to date. “This is the year it happens,” Deepwater Wind CEO Jeff Grybowski said at the recent American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) offshore wind conference.

Offshore wind is expanding now. Multiple factors guarantee high investmentTina Casey, Staff Writer, October 13, 2014, “Here’s The Real Reason Why The Offshore Wind Energy Industry Has The Happies,” Clean Technica, http://cleantechnica.com/2014/10/13/the-real-reason-why-offshore-wind-energy-has-the-happies/, Accessed 11/6/2014New Jersey is also one of the aforementioned states to receive Energy Department funding for offshore wind farms that double as R&D showcases for new offshore technology . As a brand new coastal industry emerging in the age of rapid climate change, the offshore wind energy industry has the good fortune of timing on its side. All that new infrastructure, from turbines and platforms to cables and onshore facilities, can be designed and sited for long term operational reliability with rising sea levels and severe weather taken into account. In terms of what really matters — money — that means offshore wind energy investors are going to get some pretty good bang for their bucks.

The status quo is rapidly advancing offshore wind developmentAmerican Wind Energy Association, Staff Writer, October 8, 2014, “Economic potential of offshore wind energy showcased in Atlantic City, N.J.,” http://www.awea.org/MediaCenter/pressrelease.aspx?ItemNumber=6863, Accessed 11/6/2014“As a readily expandable, domestic source of clean, renewable energy, wind power is helping pave the way to a low-carbon future that protects our air and water while providing affordable, renewable electricity to American families and businesses,” said Jose Zayas, Director of the Energy Department's Wind and Water Power Technologies Office. “While land-based wind energy now contributes over 4.5 percent of the nation's electricity, the offshore wind industry in the United States has also been steadily gaining momentum,” Zayas said. “Within the past year, the Energy Department has released a number of reports and tools to help industry and policymakers, announced a conditional commitment for a loan guarantee for Cape Wind, and announced the selection of the three advanced technology demonstration projects to continue to the next phase."

Offshore wind is at a turning point set for unique expansion this yearNorth American Wind Power, NAW Staff Writer, October 9, 2014, “U.S. Industry Expects Tipping Point For Offshore Wind,” http://www.nawindpower.com/e107_plugins/content/content.php?content.13510, Accessed 11/6/2014Many company executives and wind power stakeholders believe the U.S. offshore wind industry is turning a corner, with construction of more than one offshore project set to begin in 2015, according to



http://energy.gov/eere/downloads/2014-offshore-wind-market-and-economic-analysis

http://energy.gov/eere/downloads/2014-offshore-wind-market-and-economic-analysis

http://www.utilitydive.com/editors/herman/

http://cleantechnica.com/2014/08/17/interior-dept-atlantic-offshore-wind-power/


the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA). This week, industry members and government officials met at AWEA's 2014 Offshore WINDPOWER Conference & Exhibition in Atlantic City to discuss the growing sector. "We are going to put steel in the water in 2015," said Tom Kiernan, CEO of the AWEA, during the conference. "By developing offshore wind power, we can create well-paying jobs, attract billions of dollars in private investment into our national economy and reduce carbon-dioxide emissions for generations to come.” AWEA says offshore wind projects off the coasts of Rhode Island and Massachusetts are aiming to start construction next year and bring an energy source familiar in Europe to the U.S. for the first time. “This is the year it happens,” said Jeff Grybowski, CEO of Deepwater Wind, developer of the Block Island Wind Farm off Rhode Island and three other projects. “We are nine months away from the installation of our first foundations.”



http://www.awea.org/MediaCenter/pressrelease.aspx?ItemNumber=6863


Offshore wind is increasing now

U.S. offshore wind is advancing now. We are already in the development stagesJohn Connor Cleveland, Staff Writer, October 29, 2014, “Offshore Wind Power's Promising But Complicated Future,” Real Clear Politics, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/10/29/offshore_wind_powers_promising_but_complicated_future.html, Accessed 11/6/2014The U.S. has not yet capitalized on these resources, but many nations are much further along. Currently, around seven gigawatts of offshore wind power is utilized worldwide. This is primarily centered in Europe, with the United Kingdom accounting for roughly half of total operational global capacity. By way of perspective, a single megawatt offshore turbine can power more than 400 households over the course of a year. Although the United States currently has no operational commercial offshore wind farms, at least two projects -- Cape Wind and Deepwater Wind’s Block Island Wind Farm -- are in advanced stages of development. Further, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) is well into the process of leasing additional offshore areas for prospective wind farm construction.




Offshore wind is cost-competitive & can displace fossil fuels

Offshore wind could power the U.S. four times over and displace fossil fuelsJohn Connor Cleveland, Staff Writer, October 29, 2014, “Offshore Wind Power's Promising But Complicated Future,” Real Clear Politics, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/10/29/offshore_wind_powers_promising_but_complicated_future.html, Accessed 11/6/2014To renewable energy enthusiasts, offshore wind power is one of the most promising new technologies with potential to reduce American dependence on fossil fuels. Simply put, it refers to the construction of offshore turbines that utilize natural, high-velocity ocean wind energy to produce electricity. In the United States, there is roughly 4,000 gigawatts of unharnessed offshore wind capacity within 50 miles of our coastline -- enough to power the United States annually four times over. “It represents a tremendous opportunity for our country,” says Chris Long of the American Wind Energy Association. “We have tremendous wind resources very close to many of our major population centers. There is a strong correlation between peak power demand and offshore resource strength.”

There is a long-term cost decline trend that helps offshore wind displace fossil fuelsTina Casey, Staff Writer, October 13, 2014, “Here’s The Real Reason Why The Offshore Wind Energy Industry Has The Happies,” Clean Technica, http://cleantechnica.com/2014/10/13/the-real-reason-why-offshore-wind-energy-has-the-happies/, Accessed 11/6/2014Here’s where it gets interesting in terms of the current downswing in the global oil markets. Sure, oil is trending cheaper right now, but the despite advances in drilling technology, the long term outlook for petroleum products is up. Meanwhile, offshore wind is sharing in a long term downward trend in the cost of renewable energy, with new technology and improved systems efficiency being primary drivers. Now throw the cost of hardening existing coastal energy infrastructure against climate change into the mix, and you’re looking at significant upward pressure on fossil products, not so much on offshore wind energy.



http://cleantechnica.com/2014/09/29/cost-offshore-wind-energy-really-drop-40/


Federal tax incentives are key to offshore wind expansion

Federal tax credits are essential to catalyzing offshore wind developmentKit Kennedy, National Resource Defense Council, October 11, 2014, “Offshore Wind Power Can Save U.S. Billions On Electricity, Recent DOE Study Finds,” The Energy Collective, http://theenergycollective.com/nrdcswitchboard/2131356/offshore-wind-power-can-save-us-billions-electricity-recent-doe-study-finds, Accessed 11/6/2014Federal tax policies will be pivotal, too. Conventional, fossil-fuel-powered electricity is highly subsidized by the federal government, NOWEGIS’s authors note. “Policy makers will need to determine whether offshore wind should likewise receive tax credit support to encourage its development….Enacting tax credit support that will extend through 2020 will help support the first generation of offshore wind projects.” Of particular importance is extension of the now-expired Investment Tax Credit for Offshore Wind Power . It’s due for Congressional consideration as part of a package of so-called tax extenders during the post-elections lame duck session this November. It’s time this and other clean- energy provisions pass. (ellipses in original)

Congressional tax credits extension lowers costs and expands the industryNorth American Wind Power, NAW Staff Writer, October 9, 2014, “U.S. Industry Expects Tipping Point For Offshore Wind,” http://www.nawindpower.com/e107_plugins/content/content.php?content.13510, Accessed 11/6/2014AWEA’s Kiernan emphasized this urgent need: “Congress must extend both these successful tax policies that have attracted up to $25 billion a year in new private investment to the U.S. economy. With these policies in place, wind power has been able to improve its technology and lower its costs by 58 percent over the last five years, saving consumers on their electric bills.” Regardless of policy uncertainty, many in the industry remain optimistic about U.S. offshore wind. John Kostyack, executive director of the Wind Energy Foundation, said, “After many years of hard work by members of the offshore wind community and its friends and allies, projects are going into the water soon. Once people see it, they know it’s real; it’s part of everyday business. Everything changes from here on out.”



http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/fmatzner/tax_code_of_honor_congress_mus.html

http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/fmatzner/tax_code_of_honor_congress_mus.html

http://www.nwf.org/pdf/Offshore%20Wind/Incentivizing-Offshore-Wind-Fact-Sheet.pdf

http://www.nwf.org/pdf/Offshore%20Wind/Incentivizing-Offshore-Wind-Fact-Sheet.pdf


Economy Adv. - Offshore wind saves billions

Expanding offshore wind boosts the economy, reduces pollution, and fights warmingAmerican Wind Energy Association, Staff Writer, October 8, 2014, “Economic potential of offshore wind energy showcased in Atlantic City, N.J.,” http://www.awea.org/MediaCenter/pressrelease.aspx?ItemNumber=6863, Accessed 11/6/2014Developing offshore wind power is seen as an important tool not only to boost the U.S. economy and provide an abundant supply of fixed-price domestic energy, but also to benefit the environment by fighting pollution and helping to keep our air clean. Collin O’Mara, president and CEO of the National Wildlife Federation, joined U.S. Secretary Jewell in opening the conference. He emphasized this point, saying, “Developing Atlantic offshore wind is absolutely vital to protect our communities and wildlife from the worst impacts of global warming. I'm proud to stand with Sec. Jewell to support developing this critically needed new energy source in a way that protects wildlife and their habitats.”

Despite exclusions, offshore wind can save the U.S. almost $8 billion in electricity Herman K. Trabish, Staff Writer, October 16, 2014, “The future of U.S. offshore wind: 2015 'is the year it happens',” Utility Dive, http://www.utilitydive.com/news/the-future-of-us-offshore-wind-2015-is-the-year-it-happens/321564/, Accessed 11/6/2014“A robust offshore wind supply might have prevented the sharp power price spikes during last winter’s polar vortex by using the frigid winds to shave peak period demand for natural gas ,” AWEA offshore wind policy manager Chris Long pointed out. Such economic benefits could be considerable. There are 54 GW of U.S. offshore wind potential available for development even after ocean areas where there could be environmental concerns or interferences to military, shipping, or commercial activities are excluded, according to the DOE/ABB National Offshore Wind Energy Grid Interconnection Study (NOWEGIS). Integrating that potential into the U.S. grid could save the economy $7.68 billion per year, or $0.041 per kilowatt-hour, in electricity costs.

Studies prove offshore wind saves the U.S. over $7 billion a year pollution freeKit Kennedy, National Resource Defense Council, October 11, 2014, “Offshore Wind Power Can Save U.S. Billions On Electricity, Recent DOE Study Finds,” The Energy Collective, http://theenergycollective.com/nrdcswitchboard/2131356/offshore-wind-power-can-save-us-billions-electricity-recent-doe-study-finds, Accessed 11/6/2014Offshore wind power isn’t usually associated with lower-cost energy, at least not in the public imagination. But it turns out that installing 54 gigawatts of offshore wind power off America’s coasts can cut the cost of electricity in the U.S. by an astounding $7.68 billion a year. That’s right: $7.68 billion annually. (If utilities and grid operators pass those savings onto consumers, that’s about $100 a year per family of four.) As the American Wind Energy Association’s Offshore WindPower 2014 conference begins today in Atlantic City, that’s just some of the good news to report about pollution-free, offshore wind power. This news is out in a recent U.S. Department of Energy study that proves offshore wind power’s potential in the U.S. is far more than theoretical: The National Offshore Wind Energy Grid Interconnection Study.



http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/08/f18/NOWEGIS%20Executive%20Summary.pdf

http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/08/f18/NOWEGIS%20Executive%20Summary.pdf

http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/08/f18/NOWEGIS%20Full%20Report.pdf

http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/08/f18/NOWEGIS%20Full%20Report.pdf

http://www.utilitydive.com/editors/herman/

http://www.capewind.org/node/1765


A2: Offshore Wind




Offshore Wind: Studies Counterplan – 1NC

Text: The United States federal government should initiate environmental impact studies prior to final licensing and siting approval and ongoing studies at all stages of development and implementation on environmental impacts. The findings of these studies will be binding for all projects.

Offshore wind kills birds and marine mammals. Current studies are insufficientClyde McGrady, Staff Writer, October 23, 2014, “Offshore Wind Farms Pose Threat To Marine Wildlife,” Rol Call, http://blogs.rollcall.com/energy-xtra/offshore-wind-farms-pose-threat-to-marine-wildlife/?dcz=, Accessed 11/6/2014Offshore wind turbines might pose a hazard to the birds that fly into them, but marine mammals bear most of the risk during their construction, according to a recent study from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science. The recently released paper doesn’t offer solutions for mitigating the environmental damage caused by turbine installation, but it does make recommendations for “future monitoring and assessment” of potential consequences. Scientists have been watching the turbines’ possible danger for birds, but according to the study , mammals like harbor seals and porpoises may also face risks. ”The loud sounds emitted during pile driving could potentially cause hearing damage, mask communication or disorient animals and fish as they move out of the area to avoid the noise,” the study says. The researchers found that there are very few studies examining how marine wildlife responds to wind farm construction and operation, and none that measure the long-term effects of the farms — largely because U.S. wind power operations are in their nascent stages.

Current studies are insufficient to protect marine mammals. We need new studies to make development decisionsThe University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Staff Writer, October 16, 2014, “New study calls for continuing need to assess impacts of offshore wind farms on marine species,” http://www.umces.edu/cbl/release/2014/oct/13/ assess-impacts-offshore-wind-farms-marine-specie, Accessed 11/6/2014“A critical element of wind energy planning is developing projects in such a way that we avoid or minimize negative environmental impacts those installations may cause,” said Tom Miller, director of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science’s Chesapeake Biological Laboratory. “Making these decisions requires a year-round understanding of the species that frequent the area, particularly for protected species that are sensitive to sound, such as marine mammals.” Few studies have measured the response of marine species to offshore wind farm construction and operation, and none yet have assessed the longer terms impacts to the population of marine animals. The researchers recommend strategically targeted data collection and modeling to answer questions about impacts on marine species to help regulators make decisions, particularly in countries where the implementation of offshore wind energy is still in its early stages, such as the United States.



http://www.umces.edu/cbl/release/2014/oct/13/

http://blogs.rollcall.com/energy-xtra/reducing-renewable-energy-threats-to-wildlife/

http://blogs.rollcall.com/energy-xtra/reducing-renewable-energy-threats-to-wildlife/

http://www.umces.edu/cbl/release/2014/oct/13/assess-impacts-offshore-wind-farms-marine-specie

http://blogs.rollcall.com/energy-xtra/author/clydemcgradycqrollcall-com/

http://www.aquaticbiosystems.org/content/10/1/8


Offshore Wind: Studies Counterplan Extension

New studies are essential to prevent marine mammal deaths University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, October 14, 2014, “Impact of offshore wind farms on marine species,” Science Daily, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/10/141016123608.htm, Accessed 11/6/2014Offshore wind power is a valuable source of renewable energy that can help reduce carbon emissions. Technological advances are allowing higher capacity turbines to be installed in deeper water, but there is still much unknown about the effects on the environment. In a recent paper, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science researcher Helen Bailey and colleagues review the potential impacts of offshore wind developments on marine species and make recommendations for future monitoring and assessment as interest in offshore wind energy grows around the world. "As the number and size of offshore wind developments increases, there is a growing need to consider the consequences and cumulative impacts of these activities on marine species," said Helen Bailey, lead author and research assistant professor at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science's Chesapeake Biological Laboratory. "It is essential to identify where whales, dolphins and other species occur to help avoid adverse impacts and to continue to monitor their response to the construction and operation of wind turbines.

New studies are key to avoiding environmental harmsHelen Bailey, et al, 2014, Helen Bailey, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Kate L Brookes, Marine Scotland Science, Paul M Thompson, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Lighthouse Field Station, University of Aberdeen, “Assessing environmental impacts of offshore wind farms: lessons learned and recommendations for the future,” Aquatic Biosystems, 2014; 10 (1): 8, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4172316/pdf/2046-9063-10-8.pdf, Accessed 11/6/2014As offshore wind farms grow in size and number around the world, several changes in the priorities for environmental research and assessments are occurring. Firstly, there are an increasing number of cases where more than one wind farm project may occur within the home range of a population. Consequently, cumulative impact assessments, which should be made at the population level, will become increasingly important when assessing the effect of these activities on marine species and populations. Secondly, for species such as marine mammals, it is becoming increasingly clear that the most significant consequences of offshore wind farm construction and operation are likely to occur as a result of avoidance of construction noise or structures rather than direct mortality. Hence there needs to be a greater focus on assessing the longer-term impact of any behavioral responses through changes in energetic costs, survival or fecundity. Finally, as offshore wind farms increase in scale, there is a need to put any observed biological impacts into a population context. This requires an understanding of the relative scale of any impacts in relation to existing natural variation and other anthropogenic drivers such as fisheries bycatch or exploitation. Only then can the population consequences be modeled and conservation priorities be identified.

It is impossible to evaluate the impacts of the Affirmative without studies. They We need long-term studies to protect marine mammalsUniversity of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, October 14, 2014, “Impact of offshore wind farms on marine species,” Science Daily, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/10/141016123608.htm, Accessed 11/6/2014




“A critical element of wind energy planning is developing projects in such a way that we avoid or minimize negative environmental impacts those installations may cause," said Tom Miller, director of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science's Chesapeake Biological Laboratory. "Making these decisions requires a year-round understanding of the species that frequent the area, particularly for protected species that are sensitive to sound, such as marine mammals." Few studies have measured the response of marine species to offshore wind farm construction and operation, and none yet have assessed the longer terms impacts to the population of marine animals. The researchers recommend strategically targeted data collection and modeling to answer questions about impacts on marine species to help regulators make decisions, particularly in countries where the implementation of offshore wind energy is still in its early stages, such as the United States.




Offshore Wind: Studies Counterplan Extension

Current studies only focus on seabirds and marine mammalsHelen Bailey, et al, 2014, Helen Bailey, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Kate L Brookes, Marine Scotland Science, Paul M Thompson, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Lighthouse Field Station, University of Aberdeen, “Assessing environmental impacts of offshore wind farms: lessons learned and recommendations for the future,” Aquatic Biosystems, 2014; 10 (1): 8, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4172316/pdf/2046-9063-10-8.pdf, Accessed 11/6/2014The potential effects of offshore wind farm construction and operation will differ among species, depending on their likelihood of interaction with the structures and cables, sensitivities, and avoidance responses. Studies have generally focused on marine mammals and seabirds because of stakeholder concerns and legal protection for these species and their habitats. The construction phase is likely to have the greatest impact on marine mammals and the activities of greatest concern are pile driving and increased vessel traffic. Pile driving is currently the most common method used to secure the turbine foundation to the seafloor, although other foundation types are being developed. The loud sounds emitted during pile driving could potentially cause hearing damage, masking of calls or spatial displacement as animals move out of the area to avoid the noise. Fish could similarly be affected by these sounds. There is also a risk to marine mammals, sea turtles and fish of collision and disturbance from vessel movements associated with surveying and installation activities.




Biodiversity Links - Offshore wind kills species

Offshore wind turbines kill birds. Avoidance leads to habitat displacementHelen Bailey, et al, 2014, Helen Bailey, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Kate L Brookes, Marine Scotland Science, Paul M Thompson, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Lighthouse Field Station, University of Aberdeen, “Assessing environmental impacts of offshore wind farms: lessons learned and recommendations for the future,” Aquatic Biosystems, 2014; 10 (1): 8, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4172316/pdf/2046-9063-10-8.pdf, Accessed 11/6/2014During operation of the wind turbines, underwater sound levels are unlikely to reach dangerous levels or mask acoustic communication of marine mammals. However, this phase of the development is of greatest concern for seabirds. Mortality can be caused by collision with the moving turbine blades, and avoidance responses may result in displacement from key habitat or increase energetic costs. This may affect birds migrating through the area as well as those that breed or forage in the vicinity.




Disadvantages




Coal Disadvantages




Uniqueness – Coal consumption increasing now

Despite investment in renewables, Chinese coal consumption will climb for decadesBeth Gardiner, Staff Writer, November 18, 2014, “Asia Pushes Hard for Clean Energy,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/business/energy-environment/asia-pushes-hard-for-clean-energy.html, Accessed 11/20/2014Mr. Wu, of Bloomberg New Energy, said, “I’ve heard people say a new coal plant gets built every week” in China. “That’s probably still true. But for every coal plant that’s built, a lot more solar and wind are built as well, and a lot of old coal plants are probably shutting down, the less efficient ones.” Yet, even if it is gradually declining as a percentage of the energy mix, coal use in China remains huge, and annual usage is likely to keep growing for two decades, said Linda Doman, a senior international energy analyst at the United States Energy Information Administration. The agency’s projections do not take the U.S.-China announcement into account, but indicated in any case that China’s steepest coal and carbon increases would come before 2030.




Ans.: Non-unique – Coal decreasing now

The GOP midterm victory will halt the war on coalJared Gilmour, Staff Writer, November 19, 2014, “GOP Congress: 5 energy priorities,” Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2014/1119/GOP-Congress-5-energy-priorities/Keystone-after-all, Accessed 11/20/2014Republicans view their Senate majority as a chance to stall the “war on coal” they accuse President Obama of waging. It’s also a chance to boost a US energy boom that’s created jobs, lowered gas prices, and reduced American dependence on foreign oil. The US oil and gas sector has grown so quickly in the last several years that US production now rivals that of Saudi Arabia and Russia.



http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2014/1119/GOP-Congress-5-energy-priorities/Keystone-after-all

http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/United+States


A2: China Coal




Chinese coal imports & consumption are decreasing now

Imports and consumption are decreasing in ChinaPlatt’s, Staff Writer, November 10, 2014, McGraw Hill Financial, “China's Oct coal imports down 17.4% on year at 20.13 mil mt,” http://www.platts.com/latest-news/coal/singapore/chinas-oct-coal-imports-down-174-on-year-at-2013-26928218, Accessed 11/11/2014China's coal imports, including lignite, thermal and metallurgical coal, totaled 20.13 million mt in October, down 17.4% on year, preliminary data released Saturday by the General Administration of Customs showed. October imports were down 4.9% from September, but up 6.7% from the 23-month low of 18.86 million mt seen in August. China's National Development and Reform Commission in August asked major power utilities to sharply reduce coal imports for the remainder of the year as it looked to balance an oversupplied domestic market and boost domestic coal prices.

China’s coal consumption is decreasing nowJoshua S. Hill, Staff Writer, October 24, 2014, “China Sees Coal Use Fall For 1st Time This Century,” Clean Technica, http://cleantechnica.com/2014/10/24/china-sees-coal-use-fall-first-time-century/, Accessed 11/11/2014According to data published by the China Coal Resource (and translated by the Greenpeace Energydesk), China’s coal use has dropped this year by 1.28%, a downward trend started in the second quarter of 2014 and continued in the third. This, despite statistics from the Chinese National Energy Administration that electricity consumption has actually increased by 4% over the year to date, making many wonder whether the link between China’s growth and coal usage may finally be breaking. The press release (using Google’s translator) from the China Coal Resource states that “coal production and sales show that imports have decreased year on year in the first three quarters” — adding that the reduction is “still far from the goal.” More recently, coal production levels dropped 21.97 million tonnes in September, a fall of 7%. According to the Greenpeace Energydesk , the cause of the sudden recent drop is thanks to “slow power demand growth and large hydropower additions.”



http://www.sxcoal.com/coal/3913563/articlenew.html

http://www.sxcoal.com/coal/3913563/articlenew.html

http://www.nea.gov.cn/2014-10/16/c_133721574.htm

http://www.nea.gov.cn/2014-10/16/c_133721574.htm

http://cleantechnica.com/author/joshuashill/

http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/newsdesk/energy/data/chinas-coal-use-actually-falling-now-first-time-century


A2: China (Sphere of Influence)




No Link / No Internal Link

No link! China’s sphere of influence over oceans is focused on its near seasJim Talent, The Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy at The Heritage Foundation, September 3, 2014, “The U.S. Giant Slumbers,” The Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2014/9/the-us-giant-slumbers, Accessed 11/21/2014The CCP has three prime reasons for seeking hegemony: 1) Economic and strategic: China wants unfettered access to and control over the resources under its near seas , to gain dominion over its strategic environment. 2) Nationalistic and historical: The United States and its allies have midwifed an international system that fosters, however imperfectly, free access to the international “commons,” neutral rules governing trade, and the peaceful resolution of disputes. China’s leaders are happy to accept the benefits of such a system but chafe at the constraints. Their vision is of a world where the powerful countries get most of the benefits, at least within their respective spheres of influence. They are moving to create such a sphere in Asia. 3) Political: The CCP is well aware that it lacks the legitimacy of a democratically elected government. To strengthen its popular support, the party believes it must deliver economic growth, a better quality of life, and a reassertion of China’s historic place as the Middle Kingdom in Asia. Success in those areas is therefore not just a matter of national interest, but vital to regime stability. Nothing is more important to the CCP than retaining its power.

China’s sphere of influence is incomplete and only covers Africa, Asia, & S. America. None of this means China can overcome domestic barriers to challenge the U.S.Fahim Masoud, former linguist and cultural adviser for the United States Army in Afghanistan (2006-2007), Washington University-St. Louis, September 13, 2014, “Can China Become the Next Superpower?,” International Policy Digest, Accessed 11/21/2014, http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/ 2014/09/13/can-china-become-next-superpower/However, before China can become a legitimate superpower, it must meet its internal and external challenges and make some fundamental political changes. China’s nine percent economic growth rate since 1990 has enabled it to expand its sphere of influence and gain ground not only in Asia but also in Africa and South America. This influence will probably continue to grow in the future. In Central Asia, China has invested billions of dollars in oil and natural gas companies to secure its long-term energy demands. China is making large investments in South America as well – America’s own backyard. In addition, China is the preferred partner of many governments in Africa and is becoming the largest trading partner of Brazil and South Africa – both rising economic giants. Nevertheless, all these investments and China’s attempt to spread its soft power do not guarantee that China is becoming the next world power, for it has major internal issues to deal with. It must deal with an aging population and gender imbalance produced by its one-child policy. It must deal with its water shortage problem and with pollution. These are not the only problems facing China. It must also find a way to produce millions more jobs in order to continue its economic growth. It must overcome internal ethnic issues, economic disparity, virile nationalism, and as Henry Kissinger observes, it must be able to “absorb six million people moving into the cities every year.”

China is more concerned with arms sales to Taiwan and territorial disputesMalik Hossain and Wanjohi Kabukuru, Staff Writer, October 2014, “China-India race for deep sea resources heightens militarization and pushes scientific research barriers of Indian Ocean,” Indian Ocean Observatory, http://www.theioo.com/index.php/en/ research/item/393-china-india-race-for-deep-sea-



http://www.theioo.com/index.php/en/


resources-heightens-militarization-and-pushes-scientific-research-barriers-of-indian-ocean/393-china-india-race-for-deep-sea-resources-heightens-militarization-and-pushes-scientific-research-barriers-of-indian-ocean, Accessed 11/21/2014Professor Shen Dingli the Vice Dean of the Institute of International Affairs at China’s Fudan University sees the commerce interests as being directly tied to military objectives. In 2010 Prof. Dingli held the position that China should not shun the idea of setting up military bases overseas as it was within China’s rights and would help defend Beijing’s interests and at the same time to deter US aggression. Three years later and Prof Dingli still holds the same position. “China needs to build overseas bases so as to defend its legitimate interests.” Prof Dingli says. “China’s main challenges are the US weapons sale to Taiwan and backing Japan on the question of Diaoyu islands.”




No Link / No Internal Link

China is focused on deep sea mining in the Indian OceanMalik Hossain and Wanjohi Kabukuru, Staff Writer, October 2014, “China-India race for deep sea resources heightens militarization and pushes scientific research barriers of Indian Ocean,” Indian Ocean Observatory, http://www.theioo.com/index.php/en/ research/item/393-china-india-race-for-deep-sea-resources-heightens-militarization-and-pushes-scientific-research-barriers-of-indian-ocean/393-china-india-race-for-deep-sea-resources-heightens-militarization-and-pushes-scientific-research-barriers-of-indian-ocean, Accessed 11/21/2014While the US and its allies have a military presence in the Indian Ocean a new power play between India and China is fast gaining prominence and almost overshadowing that of the US-European military play. Other than the deep sea mining interests Lopes sees increased militarization especially from China and India fuelled by energy demands back at home. “Western Indian Ocean is increasingly becoming a hot spot as reflected by the daily discoveries of oil and gas resources in the sub-region. From Mozambique to Somalia, energy resource discoveries are drawing global attention.” Lopes says. “Gas discoveries in Mozambique and Tanzania, oil deposits and new discoveries in South Sudan and Uganda, offering of deep ocean exploration rights in Madagascar, Tanzania and recently in Seychelles - after a 2 years moratorium has opened the western Indian Ocean region to energy resource interests, including from China and India.”

Singapore proves China uses trade agreements for its sphere of influenceGeorge Tchetvertakov, Staff Writer, October 27, 2014, “China Extends Sphere of Influence in Asia by Stitching Closer Ties with Singapore,” Forex Magnates, http://forexmagnates.com/china-extends-sphere-influence-asia-stitching-closer-ties-singapore/, Accessed 11/21/2014China has signed yet another bi-lateral agreement with a foreign nation with the aim of further expanding its sphere of influence in Asia, as well as raising the level of influence its own currency (the yuan) has on a global stage. According to a statement by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), Singapore and China today signed an agreement designed to “strengthen financial cooperation through new path-finding initiatives in the offshore Renminbi (RMB) market, capital markets and insurance.” The agreement was reached at the 11th Joint Council for Bilateral Cooperation (JCBC) meeting held in Suzhou, China, and co-chaired by Singapore Deputy Prime Minister, Mr. Teo Chee Hean and China’s Vice Premier, Mr Zhang Gaoli.

China will appeal to institutions to protect its sphere of influence, not warSebastian Heilmann, Mercator Institute for China Studies, Et al. October 29, 2014, “China’s Shadow Foreign Policy: Parallel Structures Challenge the Established International Order,” China Monitor #18, http://www.merics.org/fileadmin/templates/download/china-monitor/China_Monitor_No_18_en.pdf, Accessed 11/21/2014While current crises in the Ukraine, Syria, Iraq and West Africa have moved to the centre of global attention, China is advancing with a restructuring of the international order. While Beijing remains an active player within existing international institutions, it is simultaneously promoting and financing new parallel structures. The goal of these efforts is a greater autonomy primarily vis-à-vis the U.S. and an expansion of the Chinese sphere of influence beyond Asia. Chinese foreign policy seeks to adapt international organizations and diplomatic forums to the growing weight of China and other BRICS-states as well as to the relative loss of power of the U.S. and Europe. China is identifying gaps in the international order and filling them with its own initiatives. Some of these parallel structures, however,



http://www.merics.org/fileadmin/templates/download/china-monitor/

http://www.theioo.com/index.php/en/


may also come to compete directly with existing institutions. The deepening and networking of these structures is still in its initial phase. But current international tensions accelerate the expansion of the new mechanisms promoted by China and increase their attractiveness among developing and emerging countries.




Non-Unique & No Internal Link – China SOI violations elsewhere

The U.S. and China are already locked into sphere of influence conflicts in the West PacificVince Scappatura, researching Australia-US relations as a PhD candidate at Deakin University, September 9, 2014, “The US “Pivot to Asia”, the China Specter and the Australian-American Alliance,” The Asia-Pacific Journal, Vol. 12, Issue 36, No. 3, http://japanfocus.org/-Vince-Scappatura/4178?utm_source=September+8%2C+2014&utm_campaign=China%27s+Connectivity+Revolution& utm_medium=email, Accessed 11/21/2014In response, America’s new military strategy developed to accompany the Pivot to Asia – dubbed ‘AirSea Battle’ – is designed to prevent China from developing the capacity to defend itself against an attack from its air and maritime approaches. The strategy ‘relies on credibly threatening to strike critical military targets deep within Chinese territory from afar and on defeating PLA [People’s Liberation Army] air and sea forces in a sustained conventional campaign’. It also proposes the US and its allies, particularly Japan and Australia, ‘impose a distant blockade on China in the event of war.’ Washington’s objective is to maintain its sphere of influence in the West Pacific, while for Beijing, continued US dominance ‘presents an existential threat’. Ultimately, writes Justin Kelly in the Australian Army Journal, ‘China is playing for higher stakes’.

The U.S. is already incurring on China’s economic sphere of influenceIvan Eland, PhD, Director of the Center on Peace & Liberty at The Independent Institute, November 18, 2014, “Picking a Fight with China,” Consortium News, http://consortiumnews.com/2014/11/18/picking-a-fight-with-china/, Accessed 11/21/2014Furthermore, the United States is negotiating an ambitious pan-Asian free trade agreement leaving out China. Lastly, the United States is discouraging its allies from entering into an Asian development bank run by China. If all of this doesn’t strike an objective observer as fulfilling Obama’s welcoming rhetoric, that should be no surprise. Great powers regularly issue friendly pronouncements and then coldly act in what they perceive to be their own interests.

Asia Pivot makes the disadvantage terminally non-uniqueVince Scappatura, researching Australia-US relations as a PhD candidate at Deakin University, September 9, 2014, “The US “Pivot to Asia”, the China Specter and the Australian-American Alliance,” The Asia-Pacific Journal, Vol. 12, Issue 36, No. 3, http://japanfocus.org/-Vince-Scappatura/4178?utm_source=September+8%2C+2014&utm_campaign=China%27s+Connectivity+Revolution& utm_medium=email, Accessed 11/21/2014Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ in response to the resurgence of Chinese power has undergone significant developments since it was first announced in November 2011. Not least has been the emergence of Australia as a central part of Washington’s plans to strengthen American influence and military reach across the Asia-Pacific. While elite and popular support for the US alliance in Australia persists, public opinion polls indicate possible cleavages for challenging the status quo. Developments in Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ Addressing the Australian Parliament in Canberra on 17 November 2011, President Obama officially announced that after a decade of costly war in the Middle East the US was now turning its attention to the Asia-Pacific. A month prior to Obama’s address, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton



http://japanfocus.org/-Vince-Scappatura/4178?utm_source=September+8%2C+2014&utm_campaign=China's+Connectivity+Revolution&


http://www.independent.org/research/copal/




dubbed the new focus a ‘pivot’ in an article for Foreign Policy, the term since persisting despite the best efforts of the Obama administration to replace it with the more innocuous term ‘rebalance’. The central military components of the Pivot include a shift in US military assets to the region, the extension of US defence ties, an increase in US defence exports and foreign military training programs, more frequent US warship visits and the expansion of joint military exercises. Although the Pivot constitutes ‘a comprehensive plan to step up US engagement, influence and impact on economic, diplomatic, ideological and strategic affairs in the region’, it remains to be seen whether the Obama administration has the strategic vision or the resources to sustain the Pivot in the long-term. Recent events in the Middle East and Ukraine continue to preoccupy US planners and a number of observers have questioned the viability of the Pivot in an era of fiscal constraint.




Non-Unique & No Internal Link – China SOI violations elsewhere

China already has a sphere of influence conflict with the U.S.—it’s called East Asia!Ivan Eland, PhD, Director of the Center on Peace & Liberty at The Independent Institute, November 18, 2014, “Picking a Fight with China,” Consortium News, http://consortiumnews.com/2014/11/18/picking-a-fight-with-china/, Accessed 11/21/2014As President Obama visited China, he insisted that the United States welcomed China’s rise and wanted that country to play a bigger role in regional and global affairs; but that rhetoric is largely hokum. The United States has been either the premier superpower or the only superpower in the world since World War II, exercising an outsize role in global and East Asian Affairs. In world history, many times rising powers have had tensions or conflict with status quo or declining powers, because the latter resist a more equal relationship with the new “upstart.” America is no exception. Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has recently spoken of a “new type of great power relations” with the United States. This is diplomatic speak for China wanting its own sphere of influence in East Asia — much as other great powers have had a security buffer in the past.



http://www.independent.org/research/copal/


A2: Chinese economy




Weak Now / Inevitable decline

Systemic economic disruptions and a GDP crash are inevitablePaul Dibb, emeritus professor of strategic studies at the ANU’s College of Asia and the Pacific and a former deputy secretary of Defence, and Dr. John Lee, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, an adjunct associate professor at the University of Sydney, 2014, “Why China Will Not Become the Dominant Power in Asia,” Security Challenges, Vol. 10, No. 3, http://www.kokodafoundation.org/ Resources/Documents/SC10-3DibbLee.pdf, Accessed 11/22/2014Even if the current Fifth Generation of Leaders manage to successfully transition their economy from one led by investment and exports to one driven by domestic consumption, such a transition would involve severe short- and medium-term disruptions to the economy with precarious risks for the regime. Additionally, such a transition would mean the winding back of the privileged access to capital and opportunity afforded to state-owned enterprises in favour of a currently suppressed private sector—undermining the primary strategy used by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to ensure its continued relevance in the country’s rapidly industrialising economy. Besides, even if reforms were successfully undertaken and domestic consumption were to become the primary driver of growth, GDP growth rates would still slow significantly from the recent past as it is almost impossible, and indeed unprecedented, for consumer-driven economies to grow at the rapid rates enjoyed by China over the past few decades.

Chinese economy in trouble now and interest rate cut won’t helpWilliam Pesek, Staff Writer, November 21, 2014, “China’s economy troubled,” Winnipeg Free Press, http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/analysis/Chinas-economy-troubled-283504251.html, Accessed 11/22/2014The first Chinese interest-rate cut in more than two years is a stark recognition that the world’s second-biggest economy is in trouble. After years of piling ever more public debt onto the national balance sheet, it makes sense to have the People’s Bank of China take the lead in propping up gross domestic product. Yet while Friday’s benchmark rate cut should help stabilize growth, the move also adds to worries about looser credit that could pose risks to the global economy. Case in point: mortgages.

Multiple systemic factors are dragging down the Chinese economyNyshka Chandra, Asst. Producer – Asia-Pacific, November 21, 2014, “Why China won't be Asia's dominant power,” CNBC News, http://www.cnbc.com/id/102197754, Accessed 11/22/2014China's gross domestic product growth rate of 7 percent may be a five-year low, but it's still the envy of most countries. However, experts say declining productivity is one of biggest tell-tale signs that China cannot maintain its current pace of growth. "The capital-output ratio estimate for 2012 was 5.5:1, meaning that a capital input of $5.50 achieves only $1 [of output]. As economic logic insists, and the development experiences of other East Asian countries show, capital-output ratios at this level depict an enormously wasteful and capital-inefficient economy that is not sustainable," said the report. Other experts agree: "For a middle-income country, capital productivity has dropped too much. This occurred mainly in the past ten years, reflecting the efficiency problems on China's development path," said Xiaolu Wang and Yixiao Zhou, authors of the 2014 academic paper 'Deepening Reform for China's Long-term Growth and Development.' Furthermore, China will be unable to make the jump from middle-income to high-income status - a requirement for a dominant state- unless it improves the standard of living for citizens, the report added. Doing so would require the allocation of more government funds to public goods such as social security and unemployment benefits, as well as healthcare, which only constitute 10.5 percent and 6.1 percent of the 2014 budget, respectively.



http://www.cnbc.com/id/100627143

http://www.kokodafoundation.org/





Weak Now / Inevitable decline

China’s economy is slowly nowTom DiChristopher, Staff Writer, November 21, 2014, “China's economy is slowing faster than you think: CFO,” CNBC News, http://www.cnbc.com/id/102208691#., Accessed 11/22/2014The Chinese economy is slowing even faster than indicated by the People's Bank of China's surprise interest rate cut on Friday, said Peter Baum, a former Asian sourcing executive. China has too much manufacturing capacity for current levels of global demand, which has not adequately recovered from the financial crisis, the COO and CFO of Essex Manufacturing told CNBC's "Power Lunch" on Friday.

Despite interest rate cuts, China’s economy will continue to underperformDexter Roberts, Staff Writer, November 21, 2014, “China Cuts Interest Rates to Boost Flagging Economy,” Bloomberg Businessweek, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-11-21/china-cuts-interest-rates-to-boost-flagging-economy, Accessed 11/22/2014China’s central bank has cut interest rates, for the first time in more than two years. The People’s Bank of China announced on its website it will cut the one-year deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75 percent and the one-year benchmark lending rate by 0.4 percentage points to 5.6 percent, starting tomorrow. The surprise move is clearly aimed at boosting China’s flagging economy, set to grow at its slowest annual pace since 1990. In recent days investment, industrial production, and retail sales have all disappointed. China’s real estate market has continued to underperform, even as Beijing has loosened mortgage and down payment requirements.



http://www.pbc.gov.cn/

http://www.businessweek.com/authors/864-dexter-roberts




A2: China is a Superpower threat





China won’t be a superpower anytime soon—multiple reasonsPaul Dibb, emeritus professor of strategic studies at the ANU’s College of Asia and the Pacific and a former deputy secretary of Defence, and Dr. John Lee, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, an adjunct associate professor at the University of Sydney, 2014, “Why China Will Not Become the Dominant Power in Asia,” Security Challenges, Vol. 10, No. 3, http://www.kokodafoundation.org/ Resources/Documents/SC10-3DibbLee.pdf, Accessed 11/22/2014It is instructive that the Office of the Secretary of Defense makes such cautionary remarks. The fact of the matter is that China's forces still lag considerably behind those of the United States in overall resources, technology and experience. In our view, China is twenty years behind the United States in high-technology weapons and sensor development. China is not a military superpower and will not become one until it develops the capability to project decisive military power anywhere on the globe. Presently, China is a regional military power entirely without any modern combat experience and with major deficiencies in doctrine, human capital and training—and particularly the complexity and realism of joint operations. China's ability to develop a powerful military is also seriously constrained by the fact that its own technological level remains relatively low and that its only source of foreign arms is Russia.

Multiple factors mean China won’t be a regional superpowerNyshka Chandra, Asst. Producer – Asia-Pacific, November 21, 2014, “Why China won't be Asia's dominant power,” CNBC News, http://www.cnbc.com/id/102197754, Accessed 11/22/2014China may be Asia's economic powerhouse but it won't become the region's dominant power, according to a new report. "In examining the factors that go towards the development of Chinese national power-and its ability to use it to achieve national objectives-predictions about a Chinese superpower with the ability to dominate Asia would be premature, if not improbable," said Paul Dibb and John Lee, authors of the report published by Australian think tank Kokoda Foundation. The argument that China is already Asia's pre-eminent power based on its growing economic and military capacities is weak, the authors say. They expect the limitations of China's economic might, a lack of close bilateral relationships and weak military capability to keep the country from becoming an advanced political-economy that wields influence in the region anytime soon.

China can’t even invade Taiwan much less dominate East AsiaPaul Dibb, emeritus professor of strategic studies at the ANU’s College of Asia and the Pacific and a former deputy secretary of Defence, and Dr. John Lee, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, an adjunct associate professor at the University of Sydney, 2014, “Why China Will Not Become the Dominant Power in Asia,” Security Challenges, Vol. 10, No. 3, http://www.kokodafoundation.org/ Resources/Documents/SC10-3DibbLee.pdf, Accessed 11/22/2014Although China has developed potent military capabilities to make it hazardous for US forces to operate in the approaches to China, the fact remains that Beijing could not enforce a full military blockade of Taiwan or attempt a full-scale amphibious invasion of that island. The Pentagon also observes that limited logistical support remains a key obstacle preventing China's navy from operating more extensively beyond East Asia, particularly in the Indian Ocean. In addition, "it is not clear whether China has the capability to collect accurate targeting information and pass it to launch platforms in time for successful strikes against targets at sea beyond the first island chain".








Negative soft power and overestimated military capabilities prove China won’t be a regional superpowerNyshka Chandra, Asst. Producer – Asia-Pacific, November 21, 2014, “Why China won't be Asia's dominant power,” CNBC News, http://www.cnbc.com/id/102197754, Accessed 11/22/2014The defense sector receives the lion's share of government finances, nearly 15 percent of the 2014 budget, but Dibb and Lee believe China will not become a military superpower until it's capable of taking decisive action on a global scale. "Although China has developed potent military capabilities to make it hazardous for U.S. forces to operate in the approaches to China, the fact remains that Beijing could not enforce a full military blockade of Taiwan or attempt a full-scale amphibious invasion of that island," they wrote. As a result of territorial disputes with Japan and the majority of Southeast Asia, China has few friends in Asia. A report from the Pew Research Centre earlier this year showed respondents in five out of eight Asian countries had overwhelmingly unfavorable views of China. This unpopularity undermines Beijing's influence and capacity to wield power in the region, Dibb and Lee said. Mizuho's Varathan agreed. "China doesn't have the charismatic soft power that Asia's dominant power ought to have, it is still trying to gain friendships and investments in the region," he said.

China hegemony predictions rely on false assumptions. China can’t be a superpowerPaul Dibb, emeritus professor of strategic studies at the ANU’s College of Asia and the Pacific and a former deputy secretary of Defence, and Dr. John Lee, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, an adjunct associate professor at the University of Sydney, 2014, “Why China Will Not Become the Dominant Power in Asia,” Security Challenges, Vol. 10, No. 3, http://www.kokodafoundation.org/ Resources/Documents/SC10-3DibbLee.pdf, Accessed 11/22/2014The argument that China will emerge as Asia's pre-eminent power is based on assumptions that its economic and military capacities are expanding and improving at such a rate that regional dominance is all but assured. Yet, the sustainability of China's rapid economic rise and capacity to embark on the path towards becoming an advanced and resilient political-economy, in addition to its ability to become a genuine military superpower wielding proportionate regional influence, is widely assumed but rarely analysed in any depth, at least in the Australian literature. In examining the factors that go towards the development of Chinese national power—and its ability to use it to achieve national objectives—predictions about a Chinese superpower with the ability to dominate Asia would be premature, if not improbable, in our view.






A2: China is a Superpower threat / no nukes

China would never use its nuclear weapons. Absent massive escalation regional factors will balance China’s risePaul Dibb, emeritus professor of strategic studies at the ANU’s College of Asia and the Pacific and a former deputy secretary of Defence, and Dr. John Lee, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, an adjunct associate professor at the University of Sydney, 2014, “Why China Will Not Become the Dominant Power in Asia,” Security Challenges, Vol. 10, No. 3, http://www.kokodafoundation.org/ Resources/Documents/SC10-3DibbLee.pdf, Accessed 11/22/2014Some observers argue that China will be able to use nuclear weapons against US forces in the region with impunity because the United States dare not escalate the conflict to large-scale military action against China because of the risk to US cities. This seriously underestimates American warfighting culture, its possession of a much wider range of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons than China, and the fact that China is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world in terms of its population density to nuclear attack. Space does not permit us to delve into further detailed analysis of China's military deficiencies, but the examples given above demonstrate that China is unable to assert dominant military power and even in its approaches it has distinct vulnerabilities. As Beijing extends its strategic reach it does not rank as a regional—let alone global peer—competitor of America. In the event of major conflict it would face a correlation of forces that included the United States, Japan and Australia and perhaps India. And, short of major conflict, strong external balancing against China appears to be the new norm in the region, especially in Northeast Asia.





Fishing Industry




Key to economy

The fishing industry is vital to the U.S. economyMelissa S. Kearney, Benjamin H. Harris and Brad Hershbein, Senior Fellows at The Brookings Institute, September 3, 2014, “Economic Contributions of the U.S. Fishing Industry,” http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2014/09/03-economic-contributions-of-fishing-industry, Accessed 11/22/2014With regard to fishing, the economic importance of this sector extends well beyond the coastal communities for which it is a vital industry. Commercial fishing operations, such as seafood wholesalers, processors, and retailers, all contribute billions of dollars annually to the U.S. economy. Recreational fishing—employing both fishing guides and manufacturers of fishing equipment—is a major industry in the Gulf Coast and South Atlantic. Estimates suggest that the economic contribution of the U.S. fishing industry is nearly $90 billion annually, and supports over one and a half million jobs.




A2: Fishing Industry




Uniqueness Ans. – Collapse in the status quo

Multiple alternate causes that undermine the fishing industryMelissa S. Kearney, Benjamin H. Harris and Brad Hershbein, Senior Fellows at The Brookings Institute, September 3, 2014, “Economic Contributions of the U.S. Fishing Industry,” http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2014/09/03-economic-contributions-of-fishing-industry, Accessed 11/22/2014A host of challenges threaten fishing’s viability as an American industry. Resource management, in particular, is a key concern facing U.S. fisheries. Since fish are a shared natural resource, fisheries face traditional “tragedy of the commons” challenges in which the ineffective management of the resource can result in its depletion. In the United States, advances in fishery management over the past four decades have led to improved sustainability, but more remains to be done: 17 percent of U.S. fisheries are classified as overfished, and even those with adequate fish stocks may benefit economically from more-efficient management structures.

NOAA Cod regulations will collapse the industryShawne K. Wickham, Staff Writer, November 15, 2014, “NH's fishing industry staggered,” Union Leader (NH), http://www.unionleader.com/article/20141116/NEWHAMPSHIRE03/141119330, Accessed 11/21/2014NOAA Fisheries also imposed a 200-pound trip limit for GOM cod and banned all recreational fishing for the species in the area. The temporary actions came after new data indicated the species is in even worse shape than previously thought. Douglas Grout is chief of the marine division for New Hampshire Fish and Game Department. He serves on the New England Fishery Management Council (NEFMC). NOAA's action, which took effect Thursday, was a "stop gap" until the council can come up with permanent measures to try to rebuild GOM cod stocks, Grout said. Maggie Mooney-Seus, public affairs officer for the Greater Atlantic Region at NOAA Fisheries, said the agency understands the new restrictions are a hardship, especially for in-shore fishermen, who make up most of New Hampshire's fleet. But she said it has no choice. New data show that GOM cod stocks are at only 3 to 4 percent of sustainable levels, she said. A federal law, the Magnuson-Stevens Act, requires fishery managers to end overfishing and rebuild the stock within 10 years when a species is in such dire straits. But one advocate says the agency has "put the fishery ahead of the fishermen." "It's threatening to put an entire state fishing industry out of business," said Josh Wiersma, manager of New Hampshire's fishing "sector," a fisherman's cooperative set up to trade "catch shares" and fishing rights.



http://www.unionleader.com/article/20141116/NEWHAMPSHIRE03/141119330

http://www.unionleader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/search?Category=SEARCH&q=&StartDate=20141116


Politics (Agenda)




Top of the Agenda

Government funding, Syrian rebels, and tax cuts are at the top of the lame duck agendaTed Barrett, Staff Writer, November 12, 2014, “What to expect from the lame duck Congress,” CNN, http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/12/politics/lame-duck-congress/, Accessed 11/13/2014Triumphant Republicans return to Washington Wednesday to prepare for a new era of GOP dominance on both sides of the Capitol. But first, they have to get through a short, final Senate session under Democratic control. The post-election lame duck session should be fast-paced as lawmakers work to clear leftover business, including a must pass bill to fund the government, and other bills to arm Syrian rebels and extend expiring tax breaks. Republican leaders are anxious to start the new Congress in January with a clean slate when they could control as many as 54 seats.




Energy & climate key for GOP

Energy and climate will be the cornerstones of the GOP agendaJared Gilmour, Staff Writer, November 19, 2014, “GOP Congress: 5 energy priorities,” Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2014/1119/GOP-Congress-5-energy-priorities/Keystone-after-all, Accessed 11/20/2014Republicans won control of the US Senate in the 2014 midterm elections, and they’re already deciding what to tackle when they take the reins. Perhaps the most prominent and promising area for the next Congress to make headway is energy and climate. Approval of the long-delayed Keystone XL pipeline is high on the GOP majority’s to-do list, but it’s not the only priority. Many Republicans are itching to expand liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by speeding up the permitting process, and others hope to expand oil and gas drilling offshore and on public lands. Many hope Congress will pass a bill to boost energy efficiency, a rare energy issue that tends to win the support of both parties.




http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/U.S.+Republican+Party

http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/U.S.+Senate


A2: Energy is bipartisan

Energy policy will be bipartisan only if it is Democrats signing on to GOP billsJared Gilmour, Staff Writer, November 19, 2014, “GOP Congress: 5 energy priorities,” Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2014/1119/GOP-Congress-5-energy-priorities/Keystone-after-all, Accessed 11/20/2014And energy provides fertile ground for bipartisan compromise, which will be especially important in a Senate where the GOP holds only a slim majority. Because legislation in the Senate requires 60 votes to beat a filibuster, Republicans need a handful of votes from Democrats to accomplish their goals. That seems possible on energy issues if Republicans can enlist the help of energy-state Democrats like Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) of oil-rich North Dakota and Sen. Joe Manchin (D) of coal-heavy West Virginia.





A2: Politics (Agenda)




Link Answers – Ocean policies are popular in Congress

Ocean policies have bipartisan supportDavid Wilmot, Ph.D, November 6, 2014, “Healthy, thriving oceans; An issue we can agree on,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-environment/223075-healthy-thriving-oceans-an-issue-we-can-agree-on, Accessed 11/6/2014Looking beyond Election Day outcomes, we are seeing growing signs that ocean issues are emerging as a place for bipartisan cooperation. On Capitol Hill, during the least productive Congress in modern history, both the Republican-controlled House and Democratic-controlled Senate passed legislation addressing the growing problem of harmful and toxic algal blooms (and President Obama signed it into law), took action on pirate fishing and other ocean issues, and the Senate ratified four ocean-related international treaties. This is modest action to be sure, but provides a path for continued progress. We see bipartisan concern for healthy oceans and ocean wildlife because in coastal communities Democrats, Republicans and Independents alike depend on healthy oceans for jobs and a healthy local economy. According to the Joint Ocean Commission Initiative, coastal counties generate more than one-third of our gross domestic product, and 69 million jobs.

GOP takeover won’t undermine ocean policy. There are tons of pro-ocean membersDavid Wilmot, Ph.D, Co-founder and president of Ocean Champions, November 06, 2014, “Healthy, thriving oceans; An issue we can agree on,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-environment/223075-healthy-thriving-oceans-an-issue-we-can-agree-on, Accessed 11/12/2014On the surface, Election Day was not a good day for the environment. The Republican leadership has stated clearly that they will use their new power – control of both chambers of Congress -- to undermine hard fought environmental protections. We in the ocean conservation community will feel the effects from the change in leadership, as well as the loss of strong ocean champions in Congress including Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.), Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.) and likely a couple others where a winner has not yet been declared. Dive deeper, however, and there are reasons for optimism. We endorsed and supported 59 pro-ocean candidates -- so called “ocean champions”, which is the most ever in a single election. More than 50 won and will be returning with increased seniority or serving for the first time in the 114th Congress. In addition, “Ocean Enemy #1” Congressman Steve Southerland (R) from Florida was targeted because of his anti-ocean conservation track record. Gwen Graham (D) defeated Southerland last night.



http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-environment/223075-healthy-thriving-oceans-an-issue-we-can-agree-on





No Political Capital – Obama a lame duck

Midterms made Obama a lame duck on foreign policy with no international supportDavid Rothkopf, CEO and Editor of the FP Group, November 5, 2014, “This Man Is an Island,” Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/11/05/man_is_an_island_obama_elections_midterms_democrats_shellacking, Accessed 11/12/2014But on a wide variety of other issues, including winning support for many of his more controversial foreign-policy initiatives (and avoiding obstacles to others, like the pending Iran nuclear deal), this will be a president at odds with both houses of Congress and one who is unable to muster support. This in turn will send a message to allies and rivals alike around the world that the president will not necessarily be able to keep any promises that he or his team might make. He will not be seen, therefore, as credible when he asserts plans or proposes initiatives that require congressional funding or approval.



http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/11/05/man_is_an_island_obama_elections_midterms_democrats_shellacking


General Impacts, Scenarios, & Ans.




Biodiversity




Impacts: Key to all life

Biodiversity is the foundation for all life on EarthStephen Hesse, professor in the Law Faculty of Chuo University and associate director of Chuo International Center, October 25, 2014, “Understanding the complex web of life,” Japan Times, http://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2014/10/25/environment/understanding-complex-web-life/#.VGD5Z_nF_K0, Accessed 11/11/2014“Biodiversity provides the foundation on which all life depends, including human societies,” writes Nik Sekhran in the opening pages of “Biodiversity for Sustainable Development,” a captivating book released earlier this month by the United Nations Development Programme. “Ecosystems and biodiversity provide our food, water, fuel, medicine and shelter. They shield us from natural disasters and reduce our vulnerability to climate change. They create the very air we breath, recycle nutrients, control pests and generate the soil in which our food is grown,” explains the UNDP publication, which can be viewed for free at ow.ly/DcwDV. Even if you never read a word of the text, the photographs alone make this publication a winner. Many are simply breathtaking. Biodiversity is usually defined as ecosystem diversity, species diversity and genetic diversity — life and the creators of life on our planet. Each of us, individually and as a species, is a component of biodiversity. In short, biodiversity is life.

Human survival depends on healthy ecosystemsLisbet Jære and Thomas Keilman, Staff Writers, November 13, 2014, “Biodiversity can offset climate change,” Phys.org, http://phys.org/news/2014-11-biodiversity-offset-climate.html, Accessed 11/13/2014"Ecosystems are commonly thought of as something responding passively to climate change," says Professor Dag O. Hessen of the University of Oslo's Department of Biosciences. "But we often overlook the effects the ecosystems themselves have on the climate, by storing carbon and controlling the circulation of water. We also tend to forget how fundamentally dependent we are on nature's goods and services." His research includes studying how increased temperatures affect aquatic biodiversity in a project under the MILJO2015 programme. "Take the peatlands as an example," continues Professor Hessen. "They are an immense carbon sink, and they also function like a sponge to absorb large amounts of water. Peatlands can prevent flooding, and after the most recent floods it's easy to understand what an important function that is." The capacity of peatlands to store carbon means there is less carbon going into the atmosphere, while their water-absorbing function can limit the destruction of flooding caused by climate change. Two centuries ago, peatlands covered 10 per cent of Norway but this has declined dramatically due to extensive ditching and draining. The professor's example illustrates the critical point that ecosystems can hold great value beyond what we can see.



http://phys.org/tags/climate/

http://ow.ly/DcwDV


Impacts: Warming does not outweigh

Warming does not outweigh biodiversityLisbet Jære and Thomas Keilman, Staff Writers, November 13, 2014, “Biodiversity can offset climate change,” Phys.org, http://phys.org/news/2014-11-biodiversity-offset-climate.html, Accessed 11/13/2014The need to understand the connections between biodiversity and climate also strikes a chord with Minister of Climate and Environment Tine Sundtoft: "There is no doubt that climate change is one of the biggest environmental challenges we face today. But the loss of biodiversity is just as great a challenge. We must view these environmental issues in the same context and find solutions that safeguard both the climate and our natural surroundings."




Climate Change




Fossil fuels key - Clean energy transition key to planetary survival

The loss of fossil fuels is inevitable. The only question is whether we can transition to a clean energy economy before we destroy the planetCharles H. Greene, professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University, November 17, 2014, “Gambling away our clean-energy future?,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/ pundits-blog/energy-environment/224341-gambling-away-our-clean-energy-future, Accessed 11/20/2014So, where does this leave us? For the past two centuries, fossil fuels have provided society with a level of prosperity unimaginable during the first five millennia of human civilization. However, society's dependence on fossil fuels is ending. The primary reason for the inevitable demise of fossil fuels is simply that our reserves are running out — oil in this century, natural gas during the next century, and coal a few centuries later. Therefore, the question is not whether society will discontinue using fossil fuels, but rather whether the transition to a clean-energy economy can be completed before we do irreparable damage to the Earth's climate system. The fossil fuel industry can lead the transition to a sustainable, clean-energy future or assume responsibility for gambling it away in the pursuit of short-term profits. The coal sector has shown that it would rather fight than switch. Now, the oil and gas sector must decide what its legacy will be for future generations.



http://thehill.com/blogs/


Federal investment in renewables is key

Germany proves investment in renewables can displace dependence on other sourcesRick McGahey, teaches economics and public policy at the Milano School of International Affairs, Management and Urban Policy at the New School, formerly served as executive director of the Congressional Joint Economic Committee and as assistant secretary for policy at the Department of Labor in the Clinton administration, October 3, 2014, “A carbon tax will create jobs for Americans,” CNN, http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/03/opinion/mcgahey-climate-change/, Accessed 11/20/2014In 2011, Germany expanded wind turbines and solar energy , aiming to replace all nuclear power. Thirty percent of the country's electricity is now derived from renewables. Germany's massive investments are driving down wind turbine and solar technology prices, making them more cost-effective. Los Angeles, urged by an alliance of environmentalists, unions and community organizations, is changing a basic city service – the commercial trash pickup -- to cut emissions from garbage trucks, increase recycling and encourage industries to use recycled materials, to achieve a "zero waste" target by 2050. These new trash policies will also create better, safer and higher-paying jobs. So the economic cost of moving to a clean energy economy is not anywhere near what the fear-mongering of Inhofe and others would have you believe. Instead, we can create jobs, help those who are in transition, and save our precious common resource -- the planet where we all live. We just have to use our brains. As one marcher at the recent People's Climate March aptly puts it in his protest sign: "Global Warming and No Jobs -- Two Problems, One Solution." There is only solution, and we must embrace it.

Only by increasing public and private partnerships for expanding renewables can transition us to a fossil fuel-free economy and drive commercializationSteven Cohen, Executive Director, Columbia University's Earth Institute, September 29, 2014, “It's Time to Abandon the Delusion of a Carbon Tax,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-cohen/its-time-to-abandon-the-d_b_5899448.html, Accessed 11/20/2014The real battle -- and the one we should be fighting -- is not over the economics of carbon, but over public funding of the basic research needed to make the transition to a fossil fuel-free economy. Raising the price of energy does not magically create new renewable energy technologies. While it would force some efficiency, innovation and fuel substitution, energy is so central to modern life that price alone may not force carbon reduction. I live in a city where the high cost of housing is borne as the price of living around here. People pay whatever it takes. Perhaps energy is different from housing in New York City. Still, politics blocked Mike Bloomberg's effort to enact congestion pricing in New York despite the gridlock that only gets worse. In other words, even if one grants the theoretical attraction of a carbon tax and the power of price on behavior, it is still not politically feasible. What we need is a combination of government-funded basic research along with public-funded private incentives to stimulate rapid commercialization and widespread global diffusion of new renewable energy technologies. We need to lower the price of renewable energy directly and drive fossil fuels from the marketplace. Renewables need to be cheaper, more reliable and more convenient than fossil fuels. That should be the basic climate policy strategy pursued by the United States and the rest of the world. That is a policy prescription rooted in history and reality. It is true that the fossil fuel companies will fight this policy with all the force they can muster, but it will not be enough. They will lose.



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-cohen/

http://www.lacitysan.org/index.htm#Zerowaste

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/14/science/earth/sun-and-wind-alter-german-landscape-leaving-utilities-behind.html


Federal investment in renewables is key – Volcano cooling now

Volcano cooling will be temporary, but gives us a window to reduce current warmingLinda Carroll, Staff Writer, November 19, 2014, “Explosive Finding: Smaller Volcano Blasts Might Slow Global Warming,” NBC News, http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/explosive-finding-smaller-volcano-blasts-might-slow-global-warming-n252056, Accessed 11/20/2014Earlier studies missed the effects of the smaller volcanoes because they were based on readings from satellites that don’t see down to the lower part of the stratosphere. Ridley and his colleagues examined data from a NASA network that is based on the Earth and can look up to the bottom of the stratosphere. Over the last 15 years there have been far more eruptions of moderate-sized volcanoes compared to the previous two decades, Ridley said. And that can at least partly explain why global warming has slowed over the last decade and a half. By the researchers’ calculations, the moderate-sized eruptions have led to a decrease of about 0.22 degrees Fahrenheit (0.12 Celsius) in global temperatures. But the effect won’t be lasting. “This is just a brief intermission,” Ridley said. “You can be pretty sure we’ll return to the predicted trend.”




A2: Renewables investment

Despite massive renewables investment, Asian fossil fuel demand will outpace gainsBeth Gardiner, Staff Writer, November 18, 2014, “Asia Pushes Hard for Clean Energy,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/business/energy-environment/asia-pushes-hard-for-clean-energy.html, Accessed 11/20/2014Even as China’s economy begins to cool, its hunger for energy is still climbing. So also is it capacity to generate power from multiple sources, ranging from coal and nuclear to wind, solar and hydroelectric. Those trends look similar across Asia, where soaring energy needs are outpacing the expansion of climate friendly renewable power. More than $250 billion a year is expected to be poured into the construction of renewable energy production in Asia, representing two-thirds of the region’s total power investment, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, an analysis and consulting firm. By 2030, the firm projects that carbonfree sources will provide a third of the region’s electricity, with solar the biggest contributor. Yet the use of fossil fuels like coal and oil is growing too, meaning Asia’s emissions of climate warming gases are also on an upward trend. “It is a story about growth,” said Justin Wu, lead Asia analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Asia, he said, “is going to add a lot more power of all kinds.”




Apocalyptic climate rhetoric good

The human brain is hard-wired to ignore slow-moving threats like climate changeGreg Harman, Staff Writer, November 10, 2014, “Your brain on climate change: why the threat produces apathy, not action,” The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2014/nov/10/brain-climate-change-science-psychology-environment-elections, Accessed 11/11/2014With so much at stake, why do people fail to act? What’s happening inside their brains? Thanks to decades of collaboration between neuroscientists and psychologists – bolstered by the advent of imaging technologies, such as functional magnetic resonance imaging, which allows them to see exactly how the brain makes choices – we’re beginning to understand just why people behave so irrationally. Part of the reason, according to these studies, is that – for the human brain – climate change simply does not compute. For one thing, human brains aren’t wired to respond easily to large, slow-moving threats. “Our brain is essentially a get-out-of-the-way machine,” Daniel Gilbert, a professor of psychology at Harvard best known for his research into happiness, told audiences at Harvard Thinks Big 2010. “That’s why we can duck a baseball in milliseconds.” While we have come to dominate the planet because of such traits, he said, threats that develop over decades rather than seconds circumvent the brain’s alarm system. “Many environmentalists say climate change is happening too fast. No, it’s happening too slowly. It’s not happening nearly quickly enough to get our attention.”



http://vimeo.com/10324258

http://vimeo.com/10324258


Carbon Tax CP – Solvency/warming

Even a modest carbon tax is key to survival and has immediate effects on fossil fuel pricesThom Hartmann, Staff Writer, August 26, 2014, “Why a Carbon Tax Is Absolutely Essential to Combating Climate Change,” EcoWatch, http://ecowatch.com/2014/08/26/carbon-tax-climate-change/, Accessed 11/20/2014One of those actions that we can take today is to put a carbon tax in place. Putting a price on carbon encourages less fossil fuel extraction and a rapid move to clean and green energy. With even a modest carbon tax—that doesn’t even end the subsidies to the big oil, coal, and gas companies – fossil fuels instantly become more expensive than renewables like wind and solar. A report put out by the Citizens Climate Lobby shows that a $10 carbon tax would cut greenhouse gas emissions by around 28 percent of 2005 levels. That’s 11 percent more than the cut proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the Clean Power Plan it announced back in June. In our documentary Carbon, the first part of a four part series on climate change by Leonardo DiCaprio and yours truly that was released last week, some of the world’s leading climatologists and scientists talk about the importance of a carbon tax. They make it clear that, if we want to save our planet and the human race from the greatest threat we’ve ever faced, a carbon tax is absolutely essential. It’s that simple.

Shifting to a carbon tax generates massive revenue and prevents new carbon build-upRick McGahey, teaches economics and public policy at the Milano School of International Affairs, Management and Urban Policy at the New School, formerly served as executive director of the Congressional Joint Economic Committee and as assistant secretary for policy at the Department of Labor in the Clinton administration, October 3, 2014, “A carbon tax will create jobs for Americans,” CNN, http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/03/opinion/mcgahey-climate-change/, Accessed 11/20/2014We should pay attention to these ideas. American energy policy is backwards. Federal and state governments give out over $20 billion in annual subsidies for fossil fuel exploration and production , which benefit highly profitable companies such as Exxon Mobil, Shell and BP. But if the U.S. implements even a modest federal carbon tax, we could generate $170 billion by 2030 to create jobs and build bridges, roads and schools, reduce budget deficits, and cut taxes to spur private investment. Without carbon taxes, we treat our environment -- air, oceans and fresh water -- as a garbage dump where we fill up excess carbon. But the garbage can is overflowing because carbon emitters don't pay the full price for carbon emissions. Think of it this way: It's like a bad neighbor who dumps garbage in the neighbors' yards. That person saves money, but everyone else pays to clean up the foul mess and the entire neighborhood suffers. Just like with trash, carbon taxes must bear the full cost of their negative effects.



http://www.greenworldrising.org/

http://ecowatch.com/2014/08/21/leonardo-dicaprio-climate-change-film/

http://citizensclimatelobby.org/

http://citizensclimatelobby.org/

http://www.thomhartmann.com/blog/2014/08/carbon-tax-absolutely-essential

http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2012/07/carbon-tax-mckibbin-morris-wilcoxen

http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2014/07/OCI_US_FF_Subsidies_Final_Screen.pdf


Carbon Tax CP – A2: hurts jobs

Workers are already losing fossil fuel jobs. A carbon tax model empirically worksRick McGahey, teaches economics and public policy at the Milano School of International Affairs, Management and Urban Policy at the New School, formerly served as executive director of the Congressional Joint Economic Committee and as assistant secretary for policy at the Department of Labor in the Clinton administration, October 3, 2014, “A carbon tax will create jobs for Americans,” CNN, http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/03/opinion/mcgahey-climate-change/, Accessed 11/20/2014The first dollar of any carbon tax must help communities and workers in the transition to green economy. In fact, many fossil fuel job losses already have taken place. West Virginia coal mining employment fell from 120,000 in 1950 to 25,000 by 2011. Carbon taxes are not the real threat to coal miners and their communities -- greedy energy companies are. These companies make profit but leave fewer jobs and harm communities. Compensation to job losers, paid from carbon tax revenues, can be modeled after federal programs such as the Trade Adjustment Assistance for displaced trade workers or the Pentagon's program that helps communities that lose military bases. There are successful policies that have reshaped market incentives to give clean energy and green jobs a fair chance.



http://www.oea.gov/

http://www.doleta.gov/TRADEACT/

http://www.wvpolicy.org/downloads/SWWV2012_091912.pdf

http://www.wvpolicy.org/downloads/SWWV2012_091912.pdf


A2: Carbon tax CP – fails

Carbon tax is a sad joke that is politically unfeasible and irresponsibleSteven Cohen, Executive Director, Columbia University's Earth Institute, September 29, 2014, “It's Time to Abandon the Delusion of a Carbon Tax,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-cohen/its-time-to-abandon-the-d_b_5899448.html, Accessed 11/20/2014While I consider global warming one of the great policy and management challenges of our time, I do not take seriously this effort to reduce greenhouse gases by raising the price of fossil fuels. A generous interpretation of the proposed carbon tax is that it is an act of political symbolism or perhaps impassioned idealism. A less generous interpretation would label it cynical baloney. No political leader responsible for ensuring the material well-being of his or her people in the modern global economy is going to willingly raise the price of something so central to that economy as the price of energy. This is especially true in the developing world. It makes for interesting cocktail party chitchat and impassioned rhetoric in global talks and academic conferences, but it bears no resemblance to political or economic reality. Fortunately, while price influences corporate and public behavior, and a carbon tax could work, we have other policy tools at our disposal that are politically feasible.

A carbon tax would fail unless implemented globallyDavid Biello, Staff Writer, October 6, 2014, “Gaming Carbon Must End to Solve Global Warming,” Scientific American, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gaming-carbon-must-end-to-solve-global-warming/, Accessed 11/20/2014This is the problem of leakage: Norway's carbon tax stops at Norway's borders, unlike its oil exports. Although Norway's carbon debt pales in comparison with that of other major fossil-fuel producers, such as coal from Australia or the U.S.—and has been ameliorated by investments in efforts to prevent forests from being cut down in countries like Brazil—it is not insignificant. Without a global tax on carbon then, there is little cost to doing fossil-fuel business, whether within countries or between them. And there is no sign of such a global tax regime emerging from either U.N. negotiations, the World Trade Organization or widespread adoption of individual carbon taxes among various countries. Further, how high would such a price on carbon have to be in order to slow the burning of coal, oil and natural gas?

Only our evidence is comparative. A carbon tax is political unfeasibleSteven Cohen, Executive Director, Columbia University's Earth Institute, September 29, 2014, “It's Time to Abandon the Delusion of a Carbon Tax,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-cohen/its-time-to-abandon-the-d_b_5899448.html, Accessed 11/20/2014Instead of wasting time and effort on a futile attempt to tax carbon, we should be gearing up our national laboratories, research universities and high-tech sector on a massive effort to invent new forms of renewable energy. New battery technology, carbon capture and storage, new energy efficiency technologies and smart energy transmission technologies should be part of the mix. While we work on technological innovation, we should do everything we can to reduce greenhouse gases using existing technologies. But we should focus on steps that are politically feasible. We should take steps that have a high probability of adoption, ones that are aligned with economic and political reality. A carbon tax is an elegant policy poorly suited for our messy and inelegant political world.




http://www.scientificamerican.com/author/david-biello


http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/envir_e/climate_challenge_e.htm

http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/envir_e/climate_challenge_e.htm





A2: Carbon tax CP – won’t solve warming

Carbon tax wouldn’t be enough to meet greenhouse goalsEduardo Porter, Staff Writer, November 18, 2014, “A Carbon Tax Could Bolster Green Energy,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/business/economy/a-carbon-tax-could-bolster-wobbly-progress-in-renewable-energy.html, Accessed 11/20/2014There is one tool available to trim carbon emissions on a relevant scale: a carbon tax. That solution, however, remains off the table. If a carbon tax were to be imposed next year, starting at $25 and rising by 5 percent a year, the Energy Information Administration estimates, carbon dioxide emissions from American power plants would fall to only 419 million tons by 2040, about one fifth of where they are today. Total carbon dioxide emissions from energy in the United States would fall to 3.6 billion tons — 1.8 billion tons less than today. By providing a monetary incentive, economists say, such a tax would offer by far the most effective way to encourage business and individuals to reduce their use of fossil fuels and invest in alternatives. Is this enough? No. This proposal still leaves the United States short of the 80 percent cut in greenhouse gas emissions that the White House is aiming for and that experts consider necessary by 2050 to prevent climatic havoc. But at least it’s in the same order of magnitude.

China and India mean even a U.S. & EU carbon tax would not solveSteven Cohen, Executive Director, Columbia University's Earth Institute, September 29, 2014, “It's Time to Abandon the Delusion of a Carbon Tax,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-cohen/its-time-to-abandon-the-d_b_5899448.html, Accessed 11/20/2014The Times article notes that 40 countries have some form of carbon pricing and the European Union has had cap-and-trade for nearly a decade. It also reported the administration's sympathy for a carbon price that they would happily push if only they could get it approved by the conservatives in Congress. Unfortunately, even an American and European carbon tax would just be a drop in the carbon bucket. The real problem is not in the District of Columbia, but in China and India. Greenhouse gases are being reduced in Europe and the U.S. but are growing worldwide anyway.




http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/21/news/economy/greenhouse-gases-cut/


A2: Carbon tax CP – No global modelling

A carbon tax would not be modelled globallySteven Cohen, Executive Director, Columbia University's Earth Institute, September 29, 2014, “It's Time to Abandon the Delusion of a Carbon Tax,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-cohen/its-time-to-abandon-the-d_b_5899448.html, Accessed 11/20/2014We will make the transition to a fossil fuel-free economy because our survival depends on it, but we won't do it through a tax or treaty that prices energy at its complete cost. I know some economists consider a carbon tax, or internalizing the price of externalities, to be the magic bullet of environmental policy. They seem to have sold many climate scientists (and possibly our Secretary of State) on its mathematical elegance, but any realistic analysis of political and economic power and the force of self-interest make it clear that a global carbon tax will never happen. The political leaders of the developing world need to ensure that they have the energy required to grow their economies. Their political power and survival depend on it. Right now, that means they need fossil fuels. In the developed world, the fossil fuel companies will continue their ultimately futile battle to hold back the forces of technological change. They will fail because new technology creates new wealth and shifting wealth tends to alter the balance of economic and political power.





A2: Carbon tax CP – Permutation solvency

Permutation: Do Both. The net-benefit is more jobsRick McGahey, teaches economics and public policy at the Milano School of International Affairs, Management and Urban Policy at the New School, formerly served as executive director of the Congressional Joint Economic Committee and as assistant secretary for policy at the Department of Labor in the Clinton administration, October 3, 2014, “A carbon tax will create jobs for Americans,” CNN, http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/03/opinion/mcgahey-climate-change/, Accessed 11/20/2014And economist Robert Pollin and his colleagues haves hown that for every $1 million of investment in clean energy, the U.S. can create 16.7 jobs compared with only 5.3 jobs from fossil fuel investments. Overall, green energy investments combined with carbon taxes can create 2.7 million jobs in areas such as renewable energy, construction, manufacturing, transportation, new technologies and services -- even taking into account the transitional job loss from fossil fuel industries.



http://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GreenGrowthReport.pdf


Global warming causes dead zones

Warming causes dead zonesSeth Borenstein, AP Science Writer, November 10, 2014, “Study: Global Warming Worsening Watery Dead Zones,” ABC News, http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/study-global-warming-worsening-watery-dead-zones-26807584, Accessed 11/12/2014Global warming is likely playing a bigger role than previously thought in dead zones in oceans, lakes and rivers around the world and it's only going to get worse, according to a new study. Dead zones occur when fertilizer runoff clogs waterways with nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorous. That leads to an explosion of microbes that consumes oxygen and leaves the water depleted of oxygen, harming marine life. Scientists have long known that warmer water increases this problem, but a new study Monday in the journal Global Change Biology by Smithsonian Institution researchers found about two dozen different ways — biologically, chemically and physically — that climate change worsens the oxygen depletion.Dead zones collapse biodiversity and undermine the seafood industryMonica Bruckner, Montana State University, October 9, 2012, “The Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone,” Microbial Life Educational Resources http://serc.carleton.edu/microbelife/topics/deadzone/index.html, Accessed 11/12/2014Nutrient overloading and algal blooms lead to eutrophication (link to USGS definition), which has been shown to reduce benthic (link to definition) biomass and biodiversity. Hypoxic water supports fewer organisms and has been linked to massive fish kills in the Black Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf of Mexico is a major source area for the seafood industry. The Gulf supplies 72% of U.S. harvested shrimp, 66% of harvested oysters, and 16% of commercial fish (Potash and Phosphate Institutes of the U.S. and Canada, 1999). Consequently, if the hypoxic zone continues or worsens, fishermen and coastal state economies will be greatly impacted.



http://www.wordreference.com/definition/benthic

http://toxics.usgs.gov/definitions/eutrophication.html


A2: CO2 increases crop yields (hurts nutrition)

The newest studies prove high CO2 reduces key nutrients widespread deathRoddy Scheer and Doug Moss, Staff Writers at E – The Environment Magazine, November 10, 2014, “Does Global Warming Make Food Less Nutritious?,” Scientific American, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/does-global-warming-make-food-less-nutritious/, Accessed 11/12/2014Earlier this year, Myers and his colleagues released the results of a six year study examining the nutritional content of crops exposed to levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) that are expected to exist by mid-century. The conclusions were indeed troubling. They found that in wheat grains, zinc concentrations were down some 9.3 percent and iron concentrations were down by 5.1 percent across the seven different crop sites (in Australia, Japan and the U.S.) used in the study. The researchers also noted reduced protein levels in wheat and rice grains growing in the CO2-rich test environment. According to Myers, the findings—published in June 2014 in the peer-reviewed journal Nature—are particularly troubling when one considers that some of the two to three billion people around the world who depend on wheat and rice for most of their iron and zinc already might not be getting enough of these essential nutrients. Zinc deficiency, which can exacerbate pneumonia, malaria and other health problems, is already linked to some 800,000 deaths each year among children under five. Meanwhile, iron deficiency is the primary cause of anemia, a condition that contributes to one in five maternal deaths worldwide.

Increasing CO2 will dilute nutrients from foodRoddy Scheer and Doug Moss, Staff Writers at E – The Environment Magazine, November 10, 2014, “Does Global Warming Make Food Less Nutritious?,” Scientific American, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/does-global-warming-make-food-less-nutritious/, Accessed 11/12/2014Myers and company aren’t the only ones worried about global warming and nutrient losses. Another recent study by mathematical biologist Irakli Loladze analyzed data from thousands of “free-air CO2 enrichment experiments” on 130 different species of food plants and found that increased CO2 reduced overall mineral (nutrient) content across the board. “People don't need large quantities of the manganese or potassium they get from plants, but they do need some,” comments David Berreby onBigThink.com in response to Loladze’s findings. “And for billions of people, plants are their only source.” Berreby is also bothered by another of Loladze’s conclusions, that higher levels of CO2 also spur increases in starches and sugars in the same plants that lose mineral content. “In other words, with increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, the valuable nutrients in these food crops are scarcer, and carbohydrates are more abundant—in effect, the nutrients are ‘diluted’,” he explains. This syncs with research out of the University of California at Davis, which estimates that the overall amount of protein we get from our food plants will drop some three percent in the coming decades given global warming’s expected arc.



http://bigthink.com/


A2: Warming (Status Quo solves)

The green energy revolution is coming. New technologies will replace the carbon economy with sustainabilityWoodrow Clark, Economist for environment and renewable energy, November 6, 2014, “The End of the Big Oil and Gas Game Has Come,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/woodrow-clark/oil-and-ga-game-ends_b_6061194.html, Accessed 11/12/2014A new era of energy generation, storage and sharing is upon us, known as The Green Industrial Revolution (GIR), the title of our new book. This GIR has emerged as the next significant political, social and economic era in world history. It has already taken hold, in parts of EU and Asia, and will result in a complete restructuring of the way energy is generated, supplied, and used. It is a revolutionary time of extraordinary potential and opportunity, with remarkable innovations in science and energy that will lead to sustainable, smart and carbonless economies powered by nonpolluting technologies that are integrated with one another like wind, geothermal, wave, river and solar along with their storage and back up devices. These resources along with advanced environmental technologies like flywheels, regenerative and maglev systems as well as hydrogen fuel cells.



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/woodrow-clark/oil-and-ga-game-ends_b_6061194.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/woodrow-clark/oil-and-ga-game-ends_b_6061194.html


A2: Warming – cooling now (volcanos)

Small volcanic eruptions are slowing warming now with SO2 coolingLinda Carroll, Staff Writer, November 19, 2014, “Explosive Finding: Smaller Volcano Blasts Might Slow Global Warming,” NBC News, http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/explosive-finding-smaller-volcano-blasts-might-slow-global-warming-n252056, Accessed 11/20/2014Global warming might be even worse were it not for the impact of a rash of smaller volcanic eruptions around the globe, a new study suggests. Those eruptions are blasting more of an atmosphere-cooling gas into the lower stratosphere than scientists previously thought, according to the study, which has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters. The additional sulfur dioxide may at least partially explain the slowdown in global warming over the last 15 years, an international team of researchers reported. Scientists have long known that the gases that bigger volcanoes spew out can cool the atmosphere, but they had assumed that smaller eruptions didn’t have the explosive power to reach the stratosphere, said the study’s lead author, David A. Ridley. “We were looking at medium-sized eruptions like the one in Sarychev Peak in Russia,” Ridley said. “They turned out to be more powerful than we previously thought. And they’re getting stuff into the bottom of the stratosphere.” Once there, the sulfur dioxide combines with oxygen and forms droplets of sulfuric acid that can remain in the air for many months, reflecting sunlight away from the Earth and lowering temperatures.

Small volcano eruptions are causing global cooling nowHannah Osborne, Staff Writer for International Business Times, November 19, 2014, “Volcanic Eruptions May ‘Aid In Slowdown' Of Global Warming,” Business Insider, http://www.businessinsider.com/volcanic-slowdown-global-warming-2014-11, Accessed 11/20/2014Small volcanic eruptions aid the slowdown of global warming more than previously thought, scientists have discovered. The impact of volcanoes on the atmosphere has long been known. They emit atmosphere-cooling gas into Earth's upper atmosphere – sulphuric acid produced by eruptions reflects the sunlight away from Earth, lowering global temperatures. However, scientists had previously thought that minor eruptions do not contribute to global cooling. Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have now found that these small eruptions do in fact have an impact on the planet. The study, accepted to Geophysical Research Letters, showed that minor eruptions deflected almost double the amount of solar radiation previously estimated, and have decreased global temperatures by between 0.05 and 0.012C since 2000. Researchers say this could help to explain why global temperatures have slowed in the last 15 years – an anomaly long used by climate change sceptics to show manmade global warming is not real.




U.S. Leadership / Hegemony




Hard Power /Interventionism inevitable

GOP takeover means U.S. foreign policy more interventionistPatricia Zengerle, Staff Writer, November 8, 2014, “Power shift in U.S. Senate brings sterner tone to foreign policy debate,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/08/us-usa-elections-congress-foreign-idUSKBN0IS0KC20141108, Accessed 11/12/2014The Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate will bring a tough new tone to the debate over Washington's foreign policy, with lawmakers expected use their new clout and power over the budget to promote a more interventionist foreign policy. While leaders of the Democratic-majority Senate mostly backed President Barack Obama's international goals, Republicans plan to pressure the White House to take a tougher line on Iran , Russia and Islamic State fighters in Iraq and Syria .



http://www.reuters.com/people/barack-obama?lc=int_mb_1001

http://www.reuters.com/places/syria?lc=int_mb_1001

http://www.reuters.com/places/iraq?lc=int_mb_1001

http://www.reuters.com/places/russia?lc=int_mb_1001

http://www.reuters.com/places/iran?lc=int_mb_1001