***Case & Advantage Answers***

A2: Cuba

Doctors CP - Solvency

Convening a high-level meeting between doctors would lead to other exchanges and repealing the embargo. Solves 100% of the caseCésar Chelala, MD, PhD, November 4, 2013, “The Folly of the Embargo on Cuba,” The WIP, http://thewip.net/talk/2013/11/the_ folly_of_the_embargo_on_cu.html, Accessed 11/9/2013One suggestion to break the impasse would be to convene a high level meeting of Cuban and American doctors, where health issues could be assessed and recommendations made for bilateral aid. Despite the embargo that adversely affects the health of Cubans, Cuba has one of the highest life expectancy rates in the region with the average citizen living to 78 years plus, on par with the United States. As of 2012, infant mortality in Cuba had fallen to 4.83 deaths per thousand as compared with 6.0 deaths per thousand for the US. In its last report on children’s health, State of the World’s Children 2012, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) stated that Cuba is the only country in Latin America and the Caribbean without child malnutrition. An end to an embargo on medical supplies and equipment would, of course, be beneficial for Cuba. The US, for its part, would also gain from a closer look at the Cuban health policy of universal coverage and from advances made by Cuban medical researchers. Similar bilateral approaches in other fields of interest to the two countries might then follow, in particular in agriculture. The world today, besieged by violence and war, will welcome a change of approach that until now has only hurt the Cuban people, alienated US allies, and drastically curtailed US commercial opportunities with Cuba. Ending the embargo will contribute to creating an atmosphere of good will of unpredictable but undoubtedly beneficial consequences for world peace.

Marxism Link

The 1AC misidentifies the problem. The U.S. won’t change the embargo as long as Cuba remains MarxistIke Nahem, Staff Writer, November 22-24, 2013, “Another Vote on Washington’s Anti-Cuba Policy at the United Nations,” Counterpunch, http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/11/22/another-vote-on-washingtons-anti-cuba-policy-at-the-united-nations/, Accessed 11/23/2013If Obama and Clinton had any illusions that the Cuban government under Raul Castro would be less inclined to promote revolutionary internationalism and solidarity with the oppressed and exploited overwhelming majority of humanity against the policies of world capital, they have had enough time to shed them. Despite years of stupid speculation and assertions about splits and divisions between Raul and Fidel Castro, it seems fairly clear that Washington no longer views as serious or real that anything fundamental has changed, or is going to change, in the Cuban leadership and political orientation, either within Cuba or in its foreign policy, under Raul Castro’s Presidency. Cuba remains revolutionary and Marxist. Revolutionary continuity is the reality in Cuba. Therefore so does continuity remain the reality of US policy under Barack Obama.

Gradualism is Key / Quick Transition Causes Instability

Only a gradual approach solves. A quick transition creates instability, refugees, and foreign interventionRichard E. Feinberg, professor at the UC San Diego and served as the Latin American expert on President Bill Clinton’s National Security Council, November 22, 2013, Miami Herald, http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/11/21/3770099_p2/deciphering-diplo-speak-on-cuba.html, Accessed 11/22/2013For the United States, gradual change in Cuba entails fewer risks. Sudden regime transformation might carry a superficial appeal, but it could entail political instability and unpredictable violence, social disarray opening space for international criminal syndicates, and even irresistible pressure for international intervention to quell civil strife and halt a mass exodus of refugees. Unguided regime collapse in Havana could become a monumental headache for Washington.

A2: Reforms Now

The status quo proves Cuba will make economic reforms while abusing human rightsCarl Meacham, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Catherine Krege, intern scholar, and Jillian Rafferty, staff assistant, both with the CSIS Americas Program, provided research assistance, October 29, 2013, “Cuba: Finding its Place in the Global Market?,” Critical Questions (CSIS), http://csis.org/publication/cuba-finding-its-place-global-market, Accessed 11/7/2013Even as U.S. government policy toward Cuba remains a relative constant, and human rights abuses on the island continue, Cuba is making some changes. Just last week, the Cuban government shifted its fiscal policy, moving the country to a one-currency system—a development that, at least in the long run, will likely increase the country’s appeal as an investment destination.

Cuban economic reforms are failing and will continue to fail because they don’t influence macroeconomicsLeonardo Padura, Staff Writer, November 6, 2013, “Cuba’s Trade Hub to Get Major Overhaul,” IPS - Inter Press Service, http://business.highbeam.com/409433/article-1G1-348305110/column-cuba-trade-hub-get-major-overhaul, Accessed 11/16/2013The economic transformations undertaken by the government of Raúl Castro, outlined in the economic and social policy guidelines approved at the Sixth Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba in 2011, have gradually modified certain structures and fundamentals of the Cuban economy. Self-employment has been revitalised, numerous agricultural and services cooperatives have been created and small private businesses have been opened, which has improved services, gastronomy, passenger transport, and food production to a certain extent. But because of their reduced level of influence on macroeconomics, the changes have failed, and will fail, to become a motor to accelerate development in a country in urgent need of efficiency, productivity, modernisation of all infrastructure, liquidity and access to finance - that is, the elements capable of generating palpable wealth, and with that, an improvement in the living standards of a populace that for nearly a quarter of a century have been getting by on depressed wages that make it impossible to satisfy all of their basic needs, including food.

Obama should listen to Cuban dissidents: The regime is not fundamentally changing and any moves should be conditioned on democratic reformMiami Herald (editors), November 23, 2013, “Listen to Cuba’s dissidents,” Accessed 11/24/2013, http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/11/23/3772426/listen-to-cubas-dissidents.htmlMr. Kerry properly noted changes in Cuba that make life a bit easier for people by allowing more Cubans to travel freely and work for themselves. But such changes and selective actions don’t portend a change in the nature of the regime. The secretary of State noted that this “should absolutely not blind us to the authoritarian reality of life for ordinary Cubans.” Exactly. Fortunately, that same message was delivered to Mr. Obama by two prominent dissidents when the president was in Miami. Mr. Fariñas and Berta Soler, leader of the Ladies in White, met with President Obama at a Democratic fund-raiser hosted by Jorge Mas Santos, chairman of the Cuban American National Foundation. Mr. Mas Santos deserves credit for providing a useful venue for the president to hear directly from two brave dissidents. Listen to opposition leaders who live in Cuba, they told Mr. Obama. Keep “tough sanctions” in place, disregarding “cosmetic changes” until the regime moves toward real democracy. Ensure that dissidents and civil society have a place at the table in any negotiations on Cuba.

A2: Lifting Helps Cuba

Reversing the embargo would help the U.S. more than Cuba, who is resilientNile Bowie, political analyst RT News, November 01, 2013, “Isolated & discredited: Intransigent US policy impedes Cuba’s reforms,” RT News, http://rt.com/op-edge/us-cuba-economic-benefits-089/, Accessed 11/9/2013Despite severe sanctions and scant resources, Cuba has achieved 99.8% literacy levels through free universal education, and is one of the world’s leading exporters of teachers and doctors. Cuba’s universal health-care is among the best in the developing world; services are freely provided to citizens, and public health indicators surpass that of the U nited States in many areas. The resilience of the Cuban people is astounding, and if reform policies are sensibly implemented, there will be much room for optimism. A rapprochement between Washington and Havana is not unthinkable, and would foster significant economic benefits, the beginnings of which can be seen through informal trade between Cuban-Americans in south Florida and their families in Havana.

Ending the embargo will not change Cuban policiesJacob Hornberger, founder and president of The Future of Freedom Foundation, November 21, 2013, “Speaking With a Forked Tongue on the Cold War,” MWC News, http://mwcnews.net/focus/politics/33602-cold-war.html, Accessed 11/23/2013Suchlicki says that ending the embargo against Cuba would do nothing to alter Cuba’s dictatorial system. He points to the fact that the millions of foreigners who have visited Cuba — people, that is, who aren’t jailed or fined by their own government for visiting Cuba and spending money there — haven’t altered Cuba’s governmental structure.

Remittances Solve Now

Remittances are high now and fueling a Cuban middle class. This will force more transparency and reformJohanna Mendelson Forman, Staff Writer, November 12, 2013, “Cuba's Emerging Middle Class And Growing Private Sector,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/12/cuba-middle-class_n_4260021.html, Accessed 11/17/2013There is now a flow of private capital from families arriving daily (more than 400,000 Cuban Americas have visited the island since the Obama administration changed the policy for family visits in 2009). Since 2011 non-family members have also been allowed to send as much as $500 every three months to non-family members for a total of $2,000 yearly to “support private economic activity.” While these do not end the policy of embargo, they are creating an important resource for those seeking to open up the economy. Why does this matter? Because when a nation has a middle class they can become an important force for modernization. They will demand more open and transparent government. They will also seek better government services for their families and their businesses.

A2: U.S.-Cuban Relations Advantage

U.S.-Cuba relations are the best since 1959David Adams, Staff Writer, November 17, 2013, “Analysis - New climate of pragmatism prevails in U.S.-Cuba relations,” Reuters, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/17/uk-usa-cuba-relations-idUKBRE9AG06L20131117, Accessed 11/25/2013U.S. relations with Cuba have undergone a surprise warming in recent months, raising expectations of possible agreements to bring the two countries closer after more than 50 years of hostility. U.S. and Cuban officials overcame a series of potentially divisive incidents this summer with mutual displays of pragmatism rarely seen since Cuba's 1959 socialist revolution that brought Fidel Castro to power. President Barack Obama appeared to recognize this publicly on November 8 when he said at a fundraiser in Miami that it may be time for the United States to revise its policies toward Cuba. "We have to be creative and we have to be thoughtful, and we have to continue to update our policies," he said.

Ties between the U.S. and Cuba are thawing nowWilfredo Cancio Isla, Staff Writer, November 22, 2013, “Two Recent Signs of Change in Washington’s Cuba Policies,” Havana Times, http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=100234, Accessed 11/27/2013In addition, Obama and Kerry’s statements reaffirm the decisions regarding the lifting of restrictions on travel and the sending of remittances to the island (made effective in 2009), as well as increased travel to Cuba by US citizens and so-called “people-to-people” contacts (operative since 2011). This year, the two countries resumed migratory talks and conversations surrounding the re-establishment of direct mail services between Cuba and the United States. It is also evident that restrictions on the movement of US and Cuban diplomats outside their respective missions have been relaxed. In the short span of time between Obama’s statements at a fund-raiser and Kerry’s speech at the OAS, an official Cuban delegation (headed by two diplomats) visited the cities of St. Petersburg and Tampa and participated in a meeting aimed at reaching a regional cooperation agreement on oil spills. The gathering involved officials from the pertinent US agencies. The meeting between the Cubans and US officials who attended the gathering was held in an atmosphere of understanding and cooperation. According to sources who participated in the talks, the agreement is now ready to be signed by the parties. Curiously enough, the Treasury Department’s Office for Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) raised no objections about hotel bills and stipends of Cuban invitees, who participated in a forum sponsored by oil companies.

Cuba is moving toward a mode of cooperation with the U.S.Jacob Brunell, Staff Writer, October 28, 2013, “Cuba: A Microcosm of American Foreign Policy Shortcomings,” The Diplomacist, http://diplomacist.org/articles/2013/10/27/cuba-as-a-microcosm-of-american-foreign-policy-shortcomings, Accessed 11/27/2013Indeed, all evidence points to Cuba moving towards greater compliance with international norms. One area in which Cuba has been especially willing to cooperate with international interests is in the global fight against terrorism, a priority that the United States has pushed intensely throughout its last few presidencies. In the past year, Cuba not only hosted peace talks between the Colombian government

and FARC—the Colombian paramilitary terrorist group—but also joined the Financial Action Task Force of South America against Money Laundering (GAFISUD), an international group that, among other duties, works to find solutions to combat terrorism financing.

A2: Renewable Energy Adv.

Cuba has a solid solar power infrastructure and is expanding new projectsCIPORE, Staff Writer, November 21, 2013, “New Solar Park Project In Cuba,” Caribbean Information Platform on Renewable Energy, http://cipore.org/new-solar-park-project-in-cuba/, Accessed 11/25/2013 A solar park, the first in this Cuban western province, will be gradually integrated into the national energy system starting in 2014, experts said Wednesday. The solar park, which is now being built outside the city of Pinar del Rio, will have an initial capacity of 2.5MW but could later reach up to 15MW, said scientist Efren Espinosa, who is heading the project. This is a project for 100 percent clean energy, another step toward the use of renewable energy that is in harmony with the environment, Espinosa said. Cuba has a national program to promote the use of alternative energy sources to replace traditional fossil fuels, which are now much more expensive in the international market, he said. This year, Cuba opened a 2.6MW solar park in the central province of Cienfuegos similar to the Pinar del Rio facility. In Pinar del Rio, 88.99 miles from Havana, solar panels are used to power schools, health centers and remote communities.

A2: Mexico

Renewable Energy Advancing Now

Wind power is massively expanding in Mexico nowWayne Barber, Chief Analyst for the GenerationHub, November 21, 2013, “While Less Mature than US Market, Mexico Wind Expected to Grow,” Renewable Energy World, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/11/while-less-mature-than-us-market-mexico-wind-expected-to-grow, Accessed 11/25/2013Wind energy in Mexico should continue to show steady growth in the coming years, Agustin Valdivia of Virginia-based MPR Associates said during Renewable Energy World North America Conference and Expo in Orlando, Fla. “The U.S. is a very mature market,” with a detailed regulatory regime and better wind and weather information, Valdivia said during a panel session. Mexico’s wind market has grown from virtually nothing in 1994 to a pace that is expected to hit 1,560 MW, or roughly 3 percent of grid capacity, in 2014, according to Valdivia’s presentation. Valdivia, a senior engineer, works in renewable development out of MPR’s Houston office.

The U.S. and Mexico are already engaged economically on cross-border renewable energy projectsNewNet, Staff Writer, November 19, 2013, “Renewable energy projects set for development on US-Mexico border,” http://www.newenergyworldnetwork.com/investor-news/renewable-energy-news/by-technology/solar/renewable-energy-projects-set-for-development-on-us-mexico-border.html, Accessed 11/25/2013The North American Development Bank (NADB) and the Border Environment Cooperation Commission (BECC) are to invest in new energy projects in the US-Mexico border region, including projects for cross-border interconnectivity. The agreement is part of the US-Mexico High Level Economic Dialogue, which includes the commissioning of a study to map port-of-entry infrastructure projects, and to identify potential financing structures for the development of those projects. It also aims to identify and facilitate investment in high priority water conservation infrastructure. New projects under development include a 155MW wind project to be constructed near Tecate, Baja California. The Energía Sierra Juárez I Wind Energy Project will be located east of the city of Tecate, Baja California, and will include a transmission line across the US-Mexico border to deliver the power generated to San Diego County. The power will be purchased by San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sempra Energy. “The BECC and NADB are vital tools for our two governments to pursue cross-border collaboration” stated Dr. Luis Madrazo Lajous, assistant secretary for Development Banks at Mexico’s Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público, which is the current chair of the NADB-BECC Board of Directors. Other projects include the 39.6MW Alamo 4 Solar Park, with power to be purchased by CPS Energy of San Antonio. The project sponsor, OCI Solar Power, is receiving a loan for up to $50m from NADB for construction of the project.

Mexican Oil Production Low Now

Mexico’s oil production is plummetingLizzie Wade, Staff Writer, November 12, 2013, “The Easy Energy Is Gone,” Slate, http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/ energy_around_the_world/2013/11/mexico_constitution_and_oil_drilling_will_pemex_be_privatized.html, Accessed 11/25/2013Mexico’s oil industry is in a bad way. The country’s once massive petroleum reserves have basically been sucked dry. Production is plummeting , and the state oil monopoly, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) is hemorrhaging money . Unless something is done soon, for the first time in decades Mexico could fall from its coveted spot among the world’s top 10 oil producers.

A2: Venezuela

A2: Maduro is a reformer

Maduro is no different than ChavezAnna Andrianova, Staff Writer, November 26, 2013, “Venezuela after Chavez: An economy on the verge,” CNBC News, http://www.cnbc.com/id/101219760, Accessed 11/26/2013Replicating the Chavez style, Maduro has blamed the private sector for the country's problems, and last week the government signed a decree capping profit margins and further tightening import regulations. His moves drew praise from supporters, but condemnation from critics of the government. "You can't beat inflation by decrees but with sensible economic policies," the opposition coalition said in a statement.

Venezuela Will Say No – Oil Theft

Venezuela just stole two U.S.-owned oil rigs. This proves the would say no to the planSouth China Morning Post, Staff Writer, November 2, 2013, “Venezuela seizes US-owned oil rigs,” Accessed 11/26/2013, http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1345923/venezuela-seizes-us-owned-oil-rigsVenezuela has quietly seized control of two oil rigs owned by a unit of Houston-based Superior Energy Services after the company shut them down because the state oil monopoly was months behind on payments. The seizure took place on Thursday after a judge in the state of Anzoategui, accompanied by four members of the local police and national guard, entered a Superior depot and ordered it to hand over control of two specialised rigs to an affiliate of PDVSA, the state-owned oil producer. PDVSA justified the equipment’s expropriation, calling it essential to the South American nation’s development and welfare, according to a court order. Company workers were instructed to load the rigs, known as snubbing units and used to repair damaged casings, onto trucks to be deployed at “critical wells” elsewhere, according to the document. “It was like a thief breaking into your house, asking for the keys to the safe and then expecting you to help carry it away,” Jesus Centeno, local operations manager for Superior in the city of Anaco, said by phone. “Their argument was that we were practically sabotaging national production.”

Solvency Answers – Economic Mismanagement

Venezuela is on the brink of economic collapse because of mismanagementAnna Andrianova, Staff Writer, November 26, 2013, “Venezuela after Chavez: An economy on the verge,” CNBC News, http://www.cnbc.com/id/101219760, Accessed 11/26/2013Less than a year after the death of former dictator Hugo Chavez, Venezuela is on the verge of an economic breakdown. Inflation is soaring; the currency, the bolivar, is drastically losing value on the black market; and foreign currency reserves are dwindling. Even Venezuela's once vaunted energy sector, crippled by lack of investment, is failing to generate enough revenue to subsidize domestic giveaways. "There is a difference between Venezuela and the rest of Latin America, which now has very solid macroeconomy fundamentals," Juan Pablo Fuentes, an economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNBC. "The macroeconomy for the last 20 years has been very mismanaged [in Venezuela]."

***General Advantage / Scenario Ans.***

A2: Climate Change / Global Warming

Be skeptical of their warming claims. The IPCC consistently exaggerates their estimatesThe Australian, Staff Writer, November 8, 2013, “Climate science should be read, not believed as faith,” p. 13.Across five years, the dynamic of the global warming debate, as Mr Howard says, has shifted. The exaggerated acceptance of the worst possible implications of what climate scientists say has given way to a more balanced and questioning approach. Even the UN's climate change chief, Rajendra Pachauri, when questioned during a flying visit to Australia this year, said no issues should be off-limits for discussion. He agreed debate about controversial science and politically incorrect views was an essential part of dealing with climate change. On our front page, he also acknowledged the 17-year plateau in global temperatures confirmed by Britain's Met Office. First principles, as Mr Howard points out, tell us ``never to accept that all of the science is in on any proposition''. The importance of remaining open to the relevance of new research is a good reason for reading, rather than believing, scientific reports on climate change. A detailed study of the IPCC and other reports during the past quarter century shows climate models have consistently overstated the rise in global temperatures. In 2010, for example, the IPCC was forced to apologise for its assertion three years earlier that glaciers in the Himalayas would disappear by 2035 or sooner. Even the most ardent believers in the ``scientific consensus'' would find it impossible to regard the unfolding science as infallible doctrine. Calculations by Bjorn Lomborg, an adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School, show the average of all climate models since 1980 have overestimated actual temperature rises by 71 to 159 per cent. Some scientists have warned of 6C rises.

A2: U.S. Economy Advantages

U.S. Economy Rebounding Now

The housing sector is rebounding and will boost the economyLucia Mutikani, Staff Writer, November 26, 2013, “Housing data brightens U.S. economic growth outlook,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/26/us-usa-economy-idUSBRE9AO0H120131126, Accessed 11/27/2013Permits for future U.S. home construction hit a near 5-1/2 year-high in October and prices for single-family homes notched big gains in September, suggesting a run-up in mortgage interest rates has not derailed the housing recovery. The data releases on Tuesday were the latest signs of strength in the economy, despite headwinds from rising mortgage rates and last month's partial government shutdown. "The reports reinforce the notion that the housing sector is successfully digesting the summer mortgage rate pop," said Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics in Boulder, Colorado.

Multiple factors will maintain steady economic growth in 2014PR Newswire, Staff Writer, November 26, 2013, “Leading Economic Indicator Shows U.S. Economy Likely to Maintain Steady, Restrained Growth in 2014,” http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/leading-economic-indicator-shows-us-economy-likely-to-maintain-steady-restrained-growth-in-2014-233452331.html, Accessed 11/27/2013"The clock is ticking for Congress to strike a budget deal before we face another potential government shutdown, but so far, the U.S. economy is not showing any signs of concern," noted Dr. Kevin Swift, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council. "We've seen some moderation in growth, but production-related indicators have improved, equity prices remain strong, and U.S. exports are recovering as the recession in Europe finally ends," he said. "All of this points to steady and disciplined growth for the coming year," he added.

The best economic indicator shows the U.S. economy will continue to grow in 2014PR Newswire, Staff Writer, November 26, 2013, “Leading Economic Indicator Shows U.S. Economy Likely to Maintain Steady, Restrained Growth in 2014,” http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/leading-economic-indicator-shows-us-economy-likely-to-maintain-steady-restrained-growth-in-2014-233452331.html, Accessed 11/27/2013The U.S. economy is likely to see continued, albeit conservative growth in 2014, according to the American Chemistry Council's monthly Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), released today. The Chemical Activity Barometer is an established leading economic indicator, shown to lead U.S. business cycles by an average of eight months at cycle peaks, and four months at cycle troughs. The barometer, logging in at 93.6, rose 0.1 percent over October on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. Following slight downward revisions for September and October the CAB remains up 2.8 percent over a year ago and is still at its highest point since June 2008.

R&D Advantage CP

Text: The federal government should substantially increase investments in R&D that emphasize application for manufacturing exports

The CP jumpstarts the manufacturing industry and U.S. competitiveness, while reducing the trade deficit and energizing the overall economyDimitri Papadimitriou, Executive Vice President of the College, Jerome Levy Professor of Economics, Bard College, and President of the Levy Economics Institute, November 26, 2013, “The U.S. economy needs an exports-led boost,” Reuters, http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/11/26/the-u-s-economy-needs-an-exports-led-boost/, Accessed 11/27/2013A recent visit by President Obama to an Ohio steel mill underscored his promise to create 1 million manufacturing jobs. On the same day, Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker announced her department’s commitment to exports, saying “Trade must become a bigger part of the DNA of our economy.” These two impulses — to reinvigorate manufacturing and to emphasize exports — are, or should be, joined at the hip. The U.S. needs an export strategy led by research and development, and it needs it now. A serious federal commitment to R&D would help arrest the long-term decline in manufacturing, and return America to its preeminent and competitive positions in high tech. At the same time, increasing sales of these once-key exports abroad would improve our also-declining balance of trade. It’s the best shot the U.S. has to energize its weak economic recovery. R&D investment in products sold in foreign markets would yield a greater contribution to economic growth than any other feasible approach today. It would raise GDP, lower unemployment, and rehabilitate production operations in ways that would reverberate worldwide.

R&D Advantage CP – Solvency Extension

A national commitment to R&D and manufacturing exports could eliminate the trade deficit. The effect of even a small stimulus can be multiplied when targeted at manufacturing exports. We have the only study on the specific issueDimitri Papadimitriou, Executive Vice President of the College, Jerome Levy Professor of Economics, Bard College, and President of the Levy Economics Institute, November 26, 2013, “The U.S. economy needs an exports-led boost,” Reuters, http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/11/26/the-u-s-economy-needs-an-exports-led-boost/, Accessed 11/27/2013America’s economic health won’t be strong while its trade deficit stands close to a problematically high 3 percent of GDP (and widening). Up until the Reagan administration, we ran trade surpluses. Then, manufacturing and net exports began to shrink almost in tandem. Our past performance proves that we have plenty of room to grow crucial manufacturing exports, and even eliminate the trade gap. The rehabilitation should begin with a national commitment to basic research, which in turn boosts private sector technology investment. The resulting rise in GDP would be an important counterbalance to a slightly higher federal deficit. Just-completed Levy Economics Institute simulations measured how a change in the target of government spending could influence its effectiveness. The best outcomes came about when funds were used to stoke innovation specifically in those export-oriented industries that might yield new products or cost-saving production techniques. When a relatively small stimulus was directed towards, for example, R&D at high tech manufacturing exporters, its effects multiplied. The gains were even better than the projections for a lift to badly needed infrastructure, which was also considered.

Even small doses of government financing for R&D have empirically succeeded in garnering private sector investmentDimitri Papadimitriou, Executive Vice President of the College, Jerome Levy Professor of Economics, Bard College, and President of the Levy Economics Institute, November 26, 2013, “The U.S. economy needs an exports-led boost,” Reuters, http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/11/26/the-u-s-economy-needs-an-exports-led-boost/, Accessed 11/27/2013Economists haven’t yet pinpointed a percentage figure that reflects the added value of R&D, but there’s a strong consensus that it is significant. Despite the riskiness of each research-inspired experiment, R&D overall has proven to be a safe bet. Government-supported research tends to be pure rather than applied, but, even so, when aimed to complement manufacturing advances, small doses have a good track record.Recognition that R&D outlays bring quantifiable returns partly explains why the federal National Income and Product Accounts have recently been altered to conform with international standards. NIPA will now treat R&D spending as a form of fixed investment. This will be a powerful tool to help reliably gauge its aftermath. Private sector-based innovation has also proved to be far more likely to occur when it is catalyzed by a high level of public finance. (For amazing examples, check out this just-released Science Coalition report.) Contractors spend more once government has kicked in; productivity rises and prices drop.

A2: Human Rights

A2: Human Rights – Must rethink to reject imperialism

e must rethink the notion of human rights because it is used as a tool for imperialism. Illuminating alternative traditions that resist Western imperialism works to decolonize human rights and reverse its Eurocentric tendenciesJosé-Manuel Barreto, Staff Writer, November 7, 2013, “Can we decolonise human rights?,” Morung Express, http://www.morungexpress.com/Infocus/103883.html, Accessed 11/27/2013The utopian energy of human rights must be entrenched and thought anew. As part of this task it is important to delegitimise the use of human rights as tools of imperialism: from Francisco de Vitoria and Juan de Sepúlveda in the 16th century to George Bush and Tony Blair, the rhetoric of natural law and human rights has been used to justify colonial wars. Furthermore, we must reclaim the anti-imperial and emancipatory potential of human rights, and imagine a theory grounded in the landscape of the history and geography of modern imperialism and neo-colonialism. This can be achieved by supplementing the dominant eurocentric tradition of rights. A new approach could re-write the history of human rights to include a number of eccentric events: the resistance to the conquest of the Americas in the 16th and 17th centuries; the independence later gained by colonies throughout the Americas; the struggles against slavery; the Haitian and Mexican Revolutions; the decolonisation of Africa, Asia, the Caribbean and the Middle East in the 20th century; the Civil Rights and Anti-Apartheid Movements; the struggles against right-wing and leftist dictatorships and totalitarian regimes in Latin America and Communist Europe in the 1980’s. Last but not least, the emergence of indigenous groups, social movements and entire peoples fighting today in the global South against abuse and devastation caused by contemporary states, empires, transnational corporations and international financial institutions. In a similar way it is vital to show how outside the west there also exists an intellectual tradition of resistance to imperialism and to the violence of the state in which natural law and human rights are central. This alternative canon includes the works of figures such as Bartolomé de las Casas, Antonio de Vieira, Guamán Poma, Otobah Qugoano, Toussaint L’Ouverture, Sojourner Truth, WEB du Bois, Gandhi, Martin Luther King, the Dalai Lama, Nelson Mandela, Rigoberta Menchú and Upendra Baxi, among others. All these omitted historical landmarks and marginal thinkers should feature prominently alongside the landmarks of the dominant but incomplete eurocentric history and theory of human rights. We need to re-think or to decolonise human rights in order to face the challenges of globalisation and neo-colonialism. One of the ways forward is to classify the mainstream theory of rights as eurocentric, and to elaborate a more complex theory through a critical dialogue between eurocentric and third-world perspectives, one that accompanies longstanding South-South dialogues.

A2: International Law

A2: International Law – Alternate Causality

Multiple factors erode any credibility the U.S. could have on international lawD. Robert Worley, Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins Center for Advanced Governmental Studies, October 30, 2013, “Exporting Liberal Democracy, Market Capitalism, and Rule of Law,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/d-robert-worley/exporting-liberal-democra_b_4179380.html, Accessed 11/27/2013Following WWII, the U.S. led in establishing a postwar order through treaties establishing international law. More recently, the U.S. has operated outside of international law and in opposition to the UN. War in Iraq in opposition to international sentiment expanded the divide between the U.S. and traditional allies in Europe and Japan. It has exempted itself from international law that it initiated, including the International Criminal Court, the Kyoto Protocol on the environment, and bypassing the Geneva Convention by creating the new "enemy combatant" category. Establishing the Guantanamo prison and events at Abu Ghraib damage the U.S. image as do extra-judicial killing and extraordinary rendition, but less so than invasion, forced regime change, and occupation. Electronic data collection on domestic and foreign audiences, including allies, further damages the U.S. image. U.S. power over opinion is weakened, and exporting the rule of law has become harder.

A2: U.S. Soft Power

U.S. Soft Power High Now and Will Remain

Despite a host of setbacks, the U.S. will remain the world leader because we have the best soft power toolsJonathan Adelman, professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, November 24, 2013, “Why The U.S. Remains The World's Unchallenged Superpower,” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/11/24/why-the-u-s-remains-the-worlds-unchallenged-superpower/, Accessed 11/27/2013The frequent chatter about the inevitable decline of the United States has become almost an unchallenged shibboleth. Every week more bad news about the United States seems to confirm this notion. The country seems ungovernable with a hyper-partisanized Congress, a 16-day government shutdown, the weak economic recovery and the vast NSA spy scandal. In an international study, Americans ranked 11th in happiness and a discouraging 24th in economy. Another study of 8th graders found only 7 percent of American students rated advanced in mathematics compared to 47 and 48 percent in Singapore and South Korea. Our President, according to a Forbes power rating, even comes in second behind Vladimir Putin. Yet, the United States is the world leader and likely to remain there for decades. It has the greatest soft power in the world by far. The United States still receives far more immigrants each year (1 million) than any other country in the world. The United States leads the world in high technology (Silicon Valley), finance and business (Wall Street), the movies (Hollywood) and higher education (17 of the top 20 universities in the world in Shanghai’s Jaotong University survey). The United States has a First World trade profile (massive exports of consumer and technology goods and imports of natural resources).

U.S. leadership is secure for the next two decades. Our soft power guarantees that no one can seriously challenge the U.S.Jonathan Adelman, professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, November 24, 2013, “Why The U.S. Remains The World's Unchallenged Superpower,” Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/11/24/why-the-u-s-remains-the-worlds-unchallenged-superpower/, Accessed 11/27/2013Furthermore, who is going to challenge the United States for global leadership? The Europeans? The Japanese? The Russians? The EU today has 12 percent unemployment – reaching 26 percent in Greece and Spain – almost zero economic growth, a declining population in many of its member states. The Japanese are suffering from a declining and rapidly aging population, lack of immigration, a Nikkei Index that is still more than 20,000 points below the level of 1988 and debt that equals 240 percent of GNP. Not to mention a weak economic growth in a last two decades. While Russia may have grabbed the headlines for hosing the forthcoming Olympics and Edward Snowden, it’s no super power. Russia has a trade profile of a Third World country, a GNP the size of Canada, which is less than 15 percent of the United States GDP, no soft power, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, Wall Street or highly rated universities. What about China or India? While both have made great strides in the last several decades, they also suffer from serious problems. China has 650 million people in the often-impoverished countryside and a GDP/capita ($6,100) in 87th place in the world that is barely 12 percent of American GDP/capita. China suffers from massive official corruption, one party Communist rule, lack of creativity and grotesque social stratification. Its massive air, water and soil pollution problems kill 1.2 Chinese a year. It will likely be 2050, as its leaders often admit, before China becomes a thoroughly modern country. As for India, 830 million people (almost 70 percent of the population) live in the largely poor countryside where over

160 million people have no access to water, electricity or sanitation. India leads the world with the greatest number of illiterate individuals – 35 percent of all women are illiterate. No less than 25 percent of the population has no electricity. India has a weak infrastructure, GDP/capita ($1,500) at 138th place in the world that is barely 3 percent of the American figure and massive corruption. Finally, its rapid population growth (180 million people added in the last decade) bodes poorly for its future. As the old political saying goes, you can’t beat someone with no one. And, right now, there is no one on the horizon that will overtake or even seriously challenge the United States, however ailing, for at least the next decade or two.

A2: Terrorism

No risk to U.S. homeland

No risk of catastrophic attack on U.S. soilTimothy M. Phelps, Staff Writer, November 14, 2013, “Officials say terrorist threat on U.S. soil is declining,” LA Times, http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-us-terrorist-threat-declines-20131114,0,2603061.story#axzz2lh1v8Rsf, Accessed 11/25/2013The terrorist threat to Americans is greater overseas than at home and is significantly lower than before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, continuing a years-long trend, U.S. officials told a Senate committee Thursday. FBI Director James B. Comey, in his first testimony before Congress since his Senate confirmation in July, said he worries about homegrown extremists who operate independent of traditional terrorist groups, however. “Because we took the fight to the enemy and got our act together in the last 12 years in very, very important ways, the risk of that spectacular attack in the homeland is significantly lower than it was before 9/11 ,” Comey told the Senate Homeland Security Committee.

Terrorism is No Threat

America would defeat any real terrorist riskWilliam R. Hawkins, consultant specializing in international economic and national security issues and a former economics professor and Republican Congressional staff member, October 20, 2013, “An Exaggerated Fear of Terrorism,” Accessed 11/25/2013, http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/detail/an-exaggerated-fear-of-terrorismThe reason that the United States can so outclass mere terrorists is that America is a nation-state with vast resources--- money, technology and manpower. No private gang of militants no matter how fanatical can match this kind of power. We may worry about terrorists getting their hands on Syria's chemical stockpile or Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, but there is no chance that the terrorists can create such weapons themselves. Only other nation-states can pose threats at the high end of the spectrum; the kind of threats that can change the balance of power and the future of the world. This is why the U.S. must maintain heavy brigades, carrier task forces and stealth bomber wings, not to mention its nuclear deterrent. And why the sequester deal was so dangerous. Imposing half the total spending cuts on the Pentagon, whose budget is only 17% of the total Federal budget, threatens America's preeminence. Indeed, defense spending is already projected to fall to less than 14% of the Federal budget by 2016. Big government does not wear a uniform.

Terrorists are no threat to massive U.S. powerWilliam R. Hawkins, consultant specializing in international economic and national security issues and a former economics professor and Republican Congressional staff member, October 20, 2013, “An Exaggerated Fear of Terrorism,” Accessed 11/25/2013, http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/detail/an-exaggerated-fear-of-terrorismI am not arguing that we ignore terrorists. They want to kill people, in the largest numbers they can reach. Operationally, we must do whatever we can to thwart their plans , from NSA intercepts to airport screenings at home; and strikes against enemy camps and support for anti-terrorist allies overseas. Yet, operational success is not enough. The terrorist threat must be defeated at the strategic level, which means not giving in to it. Terrorism remains the tactic of the weak and the United States remains the greatest power on earth. There really is no contest, and thus no compulsion to appease the demands of the militants.

A2: Cooperation / Multilateralism Key

NSA scandals hamper our ability to garner cooperation to combat terrorismDeb Reichmann, Staff Writer, October 26, 2013, “NSA spying threatens to hamper US foreign policy,” Times of Israel, http://www.timesofisrael.com/nsa-spying-threatens-to-hamper-us-foreign-policy/, Accessed 11/17/2013The revelations could undercut Washington’s effort to fight terrorism, says Kiron Skinner, director of the Center for International Relations and Politics at Carnegie Mellon University. The sweeping nature of NSA surveillance goes against the Obama administration’s claim that much of US espionage is carried out to combat terrorism, she says. “If Washington undermines its own leadership or that of its allies, the collective ability of the West to combat terrorism will be compromised,” Skinner said. “Allied leaders will have no incentive to put their own militaries at risk if they cannot trust US leadership.”

***Disadvantage Updates***

China

Cuba Links

China attaches high importance to relations with CubaXinhua News, Staff Writer, November 7, 2013, “Chinese president meets Cuban FM,” http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/ 2013-11/07/c_132868495.htm, Accessed 11/27/2013Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Cuban Minister of Foreign Affairs Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla here on Thursday. Xi said China and Cuba are good friends, comrades and brothers. Facing a complicated and changing international situation, the two countries, both in a critical development stage, should work together and strengthen cooperation. China attaches high importance to its relations with Cuba. The two countries should have closer high-level exchanges, share experience in national governance, promote cooperation in priority areas and work closely on international affairs. They should also jointly promote the development of the relationship between China and countries in Latin America and the Caribbean area, Xi added.

L.A. Agriculture Links

China is moving to rapidly expand economic engagement in L.A. agricultureMargaret Myers, director of the China and Latin America program at the Inter-American Dialogue, November 19, 2013, “China's Agricultural Engagement in Latin America,” http://www.chinaandlatinamerica.com/, Accessed 11/25/2013The Chinese government is also seeking to deepen agricultural cooperation with Latin America by means of high-level dialogues, bilateral agreements and free trade agreements. The first-ever China-LAC Agricultural Ministers Forum took place in June 2013 and established a joint 500,000 ton food reserve and a $50 million fund for eight research and development centers in the region (one will evidently be located in Uruguay). China has also signed bilateral agriculture, fishing, and forestry-related agreements and other cooperation agreements with Latin America and Caribbean countries. A Joint Action Plan between China and Brazil encourages two-way investment in agriculture with a focus on agricultural investments in grain and food processing, for example. While China is committed to increasing domestic agricultural output (and there is much that can be done in this regard), the country’s need to complement internal production with foreign agricultural goods is becoming more urgent. This has obvious implications for Latin America, especially in terms of soy imports and related investment. As was evident over the past decade, even relatively small changes in China’s consumption patterns can have a major influence on global agricultural commodities market. Latin America should expect growing interest from China in agriculture, and in specific foods in particular. China is inclined to project its food deficits abroad. The extent to which China’s investments and other agreements are successful will continue depend, however, on popular, foreign government and interest group reactions to enhanced Chinese agricultural engagement.

L.A. Renewables Links

China is increasingly active in expanding renewable energy development in L.A.Evan Ellis, PhD, a professor at the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies, November 23, 2013, “Are Big Chinese Energy Investments in Latin America a Concern?,” Manzella Report, http://www.manzellareport.com/index.php/world/781-are-big-chinese-energy-investments-in-latin-america-a-concern, Accessed 11/25/2013While western firms are leaders in alternative energy technologies, the Chinese play a significant and expanding role in providing the components and doing the actual work as Latin America builds new transmission infrastructure, hydropower, wind, and solar facilities. Their success is supported by Chinese banks, which provide long-term financing, enabling some projects which might not have otherwise been viable, while mandating the use of Chinese companies and products.

Venezuela Links: Resources

China is investing heavily in resources and oil from Latin AmericaSyed Waqas Haider Bukhar, Staff Writer, November 25, 2013, “China’s thrust for world natural resources,” The Frontier Post, http://www.thefrontierpost.com/article/57036/, Accessed 11/25/2013Latin America is another place from where China is getting natural reserves to meet the demands of oil. In Latin America, China is investing on large scale. In 2004, China invested 4 billion dollars in Latin America and in the same year Chinese President also announced a plan of ten years for further increasing its investments in Latin America. First Free Trade Agreement between Chile and China was signed in 2005. In 2006, both China and Chile formed a combined copper mining company. Through this company, Chile will get copper for 15 years. For oil import, China has signed an agreement with Ecuador. From Venezuela, China is importing 300,000 barrels/day of oil. China has also invested in Bolivia’s natural gas field and in 2006 both countries signed an agreement of 1.5 billion dollars in Bolivia’s gas sector. From Brazil, China is importing iron ore and soybeans, which is another trading partner of China from Latin America.

Venezuela Links: Oil Industry

China is heavily invested in Venezuela’s oil industryJames Parker, Staff Writer, October 29, 2013, “China’s Venezuela Exposure,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2013/10/chinas-venezuela-exposure/, Accessed 11/26/2013The visit of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to China last month was, on the face of it, a cause for quite a bit of relief for Beijing. After all, strong Beijing ally Hugo Chavez had only passed away in March, and there was some concern about how stable Venezuela would be following the death of such a personality-oriented, individual leader. Whilst the visit was marked by the usual fanfare about deals, cooperation and even conspiracy theories (as usual centered on the U.S.) the cheer actually masked what is rapidly becoming a dire economic situation in the Latin-American country as decades of populism come home to roost. Even the conspiracy theories represent political strains in Caracas. China should be wary. Chinese investment and support for Venezuela continued unabated both before and during Maduro’s visit in late September. Indeed, $28 billion of Chinese investment in Venezuelan oil production was announced beforeMaduro even set foot in Beijing. These numbers are large, but cumulative Chinese exposure to Venezuela is much higher, with China Development bank alone having a third of its overseas lending as of late 2012 in the country according to the book China’s Superbank. Much of China’s investment in Venezuela, like the recent $28 billion, is focused on the oil industry. Other lending to Venezuela from China, like another $5 billion loan agreed during the visit, is often contracted to be at least partially repaid in oil. The same applies for a separate$20 billion credit line from China that is soon due to be renewed.

Chinese investment in the oil industry is the lifeline of the Venezuelan economyJames Parker, Staff Writer, October 29, 2013, “China’s Venezuela Exposure,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2013/10/chinas-venezuela-exposure/, Accessed 11/26/2013The one positive for China is that much (though not all) of its investment into Venezuela is in the oil industry – which is set to continue being not only the sole real source of economic product in the country but also a key part of the government’s ability to remain in power. Still, China should perhaps prepare for requests to “renegotiate” certain deals over the coming years, even if the Chavistas manage to hold on to power.

Food Prices Uniqueness Debate

Food Prices Are High Now

Food prices high now and are stabilizing thereCatherine Hornby, Staff Writer, November 7, 2013, “Global food prices rise in October after five months of falls,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/07/us-food-fao-idUSBRE9A60E520131107, Accessed 11/26/2013Global food prices rose slightly in October after declining for the past five months, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday, forecasting more stability in markets as it raised its estimate for 2013/14 cereals output. The rise in prices last month was fuelled by sugar costs, which increased due to concerns about harvest delays in Brazil. Prices of wheat and edible oils also strengthened, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said. "Prices are settling around these levels," FAO senior economist Abdolreza Abbassian told Reuters by telephone. "I do not see such sharp declines in prices in coming months as we have seen in the first half of the year," he said.

Despite a decline in prices, they are still very high globallyWorld Bank, Staff Writer, November 2013, "Prices Decline but Remain High as Weather Concerns Increase,” Food Price Watch, Issue 15, Volume 4, http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/publication/food-price-watch-november-2013, Accessed 11/26/2013International prices of food continued to decline between June and October 2013, but remain high. The World Bank’s Food Price Index decreased by 6% between June and October 2013. Despite steady declines in the past few quarters, prices remain high: the Bank's Food Price Index was only 12% lower than a year ago and 16% below the all-time peak in August 2012.

Food Prices Are Low Now

Higher global production rates are leading to price stability at lower levelsUN Food Centre, Staff Writer, November 7, 2013, “Food prices expected to be less volatile than in recent years, says UN agency,” http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp/h%3Cspan%20class='pullme'%3EIn%20short,%20when%20you%20empower%20a%20woman,%20you%20change%20the%20world%3C/span%3Ettp://www.unfpa.org/www.unicef.org/html/html/story.asp?NewsID=46440&Cr=food+security&Cr1=#.UpTMI8Q86m4, Accessed 11/26/2013Improved supplies and a recovery in global inventories of cereals has led to less price volatility than in recent years, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization ( FAO ) said today, adding that food prices over the past month rose slightly, driven by higher sugar prices. “The prices for most basic food commodities have declined over the past few months. This relates to production increases and the expectation that in the current season, we will have more abundant supplies, more export availabilities and higher stocks,” David Hallam, Director of FAO’s Trade and Markets Division, said in a press release.

Oil

Refining DA – 1NC

U.S. production of refined petroleum products is surging now and so is Latin American dependence on U.S. supplies. The status quo is not moving toward new refineries in the region. The plan trades off with current dependence on the U.S.Marianna Parraga, Staff Writer, November 17, 2013, “Analysis: Latin America grows increasingly hooked on U.S. fuel imports,” Reuters, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/17/us-oil-latam-imports-idUKBRE9AG07120131117, Accessed 11/18/2013Despite its own vast oil reserves, Latin America has doubled its reliance on the United States for fuels like diesel and gasoline over the last five years to keep its economies humming - and the dependence is growing. The culprit is an outdated refining network that has not been upgraded to add capacity as growth has surged across much of the region. Though Latin American leaders spent much of the last decade opening markets in Asia and in some cases distancing themselves from Washington, the rising fuel imports show they still must tap the United States for crucial supplies. Latin America's dependence on the United States for refined fuels is growing at the same time that U.S. reliance on foreign oil falls thanks to an unprecedented boom in domestic production and falling fuel demand. While Latin American countries have planned to build some new refineries, they are a long way from coming to

fruition . The 12 Latin American countries that are the biggest importers of U.S. fuels have bought an average of 1.36 million barrels per day in 2013, twice as much as 657,000 bpd in 2008, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). At the same time, crude shipments from Latin America's top producers - Mexico , Venezuela , Ecuador, Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Guatemala - to the United States have fallen 18.6 percent since 2008 to 2.4 million bpd. Only Colombia has posted significant gains.

Refined petroleum exports are on track to reverse the trade deficit in a decadeMark P. Mills, Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute, May 2013, “The Case for Exports: America's Hydrocarbon Industry Can Revive the Economy and Eliminate the Trade Deficit,” Power & Growth Initiative Report, No. 3, http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/ pgi_03.htm#.Uo0-bsQ86m5, Accessed 11/20/2013Today, oil imports account for about 40 percent of America's $750 billion annual trade deficit, a deficit that drains the GDP and kills jobs. Expanding the domestic production of hydrocarbons to reduce imports as well as increase exports will function as an enormous subsidy-free stimulus to the U.S. economy, directly creating all manner of jobs across the nation and indirectly creating millions more jobs as the nation's current account deficit shrinks. Increased production and exports of oil and gas and of energy-intensive products from chemicals to fertilizers can put the nation on track to wipe out the entire trade deficit within the decade, returning the nation to a trade balance—even a surplus—that has not been enjoyed for decades. This process has already begun: increasing exports of U.S. refined petroleum products are already pushing the trade deficit down.

Trade deficits drag down the economyMark P. Mills, Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute, May 2013, “The Case for Exports: America's Hydrocarbon Industry Can Revive the Economy and Eliminate the Trade Deficit,” Power & Growth

Initiative Report, No. 3, http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/ pgi_03.htm#.Uo0-bsQ86m5, Accessed 11/20/2013The U.S. is a major exporter and sells more goods to the world, at $1.6 trillion a year, than any other nation except export-centric China, which sold $2.1 trillion worth of goods and services to the world last year. But unlike China, the U.S. imports a lot more than it exports, and hence runs the world's largest annual trade deficit, of about $750 billion. Trade deficits are a direct drag on GDP and job growth. And 40 percent of the deficit comes from energy imports: oil.

Insert U.S. economy impact!!!!!!!!!!

Refining DA – L.A. Dependence High Now/Links

Refined oil products exports to Latin America will continue to increaseMarianna Parraga, Staff Writer, November 17, 2013, “Analysis: Latin America grows increasingly hooked on U.S. fuel imports,” Reuters, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/17/us-oil-latam-imports-idUKBRE9AG07120131117, Accessed 11/18/2013Some of the purchases are tied to electricity shortages in Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil and almost all Central America and the Caribbean. The countries are introducing thermoelectrical plants - fueled by diesel, fuel oil and natural gas - to have power during long droughts that diminish hydroelectric output. Other fuels imported by Latin America include intermediate products for refineries, liquefied petroleum gas, and more than 20 products mostly for motor vehicles. “Latin America is likely to remain a destination for increasing volumes of U.S. Gulf refined product exports going forward," Deutsche Bank said.

Refined petroleum exports are at an all-time highTrends Magazine, Staff Writer, November 7, 2013, No. 127, “The Energy Revolution Is Here,” Accessed 11/20/2013, http://www.audiotech.com/trends-magazine/energy-revolution/Already, U.S. exports of petroleum products have nearly tripled since 2006. Federal law prohibits the export of most U.S. crude oil, but U.S. refiners can export finished petroleum products like fuel oil, gasoline, aviation fuel, kerosene, diesel fuel, petroleum coke, propane, and butane. In July 2013, U.S. exports of finished petroleum products and natural gas plant liquids reached a new all-time record of 3.9 million barrels per day, an increase of more than 20 percent from a year earlier, and more than twice the 1.9 million barrels per day in January 2010.

Latin America is dependent on fuel imports. New refineries are still in the design stageMarianna Parraga, Staff Writer, November 17, 2013, “Analysis: Latin America grows increasingly hooked on U.S. fuel imports,” Reuters, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/17/us-oil-latam-imports-idUKBRE9AG07120131117, Accessed 11/18/2013The uptick was primarily caused by booming demand for fuel - from new electrical generation plants that burn diesel to new car sales in some countries that grew at double-digit annual clips. Imports are expected to rise even more. "Most of the planned new refineries in Latin America have not even finished the detailed engineering design," said Ramon Espinasa, leading oil and gas specialist for the Inter American Development Bank. "A regional recession is not expected in the short term, so a projected 20-25 percent rise in fuel demand must be fully met with imports."

All new demand for fuel in Latin America must come from importsMarianna Parraga, Staff Writer, November 19, 2013, “Latin America hook on U.S. fuel imports, dependence is growing,” Petroleum World, http://www.petroleumworld.com/storyt13111901.htm, Accessed 11/25/2013

Latin American fuel demand is expected to reach 9 million to 10 million bpd by 2020 after rising 2 to 2.2 percent a year for the next seven years, according to the International Energy Agency, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the EIA. The region's demand growth would be the world's fastest after Asia and the Middle East. Even though projected annual upticks in demand would be slower than the 2.6 percent annual rises posted since 2004, all new Latin American demand must be covered by imports because the region lacks surplus refining capacity.

Lack of refining capacity fosters a high demand for U.S. exportsAlexis Arthur, energy policy associate at the Institute of the Americas, September 4, 2013, “US Refineries Respond to Latin American Shortfall,” OilPrice.com, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Refineries-Respond-to-Latin-American-Shortfall.html, Accessed 11/20/2013Although Latin America’s oil production has grown steadily in recent years, the region’s refineries have been unable to keep pace with rising demand, particularly in the transport sector. The shortfall has prompted Victorio Oxilia, president of the Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE), to declare the increase in petroleum product imports one of the region’s most pressing energy concerns. There are several reasons for this. One is simply insufficient investment in local refining capacity. This is changing, with several projects underway. Interestingly the Chinese, who have been significant financiers of upstream oil operations across Latin America, have begun investing in the downstream sector. The China National Petroleum Corporation’s (CNPC) investment in the $12 billion Pacific Refinery in Ecuador is just one example, and we are likely to see more in coming years. Another reason for the region’s relative decline in refining capacity is tightening regulations, meaning that pre-exciting refineries are unable to produce the quality of gasoline or diesel that meets national standards. Constructing more complex refineries capable of producing various fuel grades requires enormous investment. This is complicated by the fact that the refining sector in many Latin American countries remains tightly controlled by the State, which limits opportunities for private investment.

Lack of refining capacity means all new fuel demands must come from importsMarianna Parraga, Staff Writer, November 17, 2013, “Analysis: Latin America grows increasingly hooked on U.S. fuel imports,” Reuters, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/17/us-oil-latam-imports-idUKBRE9AG07120131117, Accessed 11/18/2013Latin American fuel demand is expected to reach 9 million to 10 million bpd by 2020 after rising 2 to 2.2 percent a year for the next seven years, according to the International Energy Agency, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the EIA. The region's demand growth would be the world's fastest after Asia and the Middle East. Even though projected annual upticks in demand would be slower than the 2.6 percent annual rises posted since 2004, all new Latin American demand must be covered by imports because the region lacks surplus refining capacity.

Latin America will continue to increase imports from the U.S. for years because it lacks refining capacityMarianna Parraga, Staff Writer, November 17, 2013, “FACTBOX-Latin American refining projects face delays,” CNBC Business News, http://www.cnbc.com/id/101204919, Accessed 11/20/2013

Latin America is buying more refined products from one of its closest neighbors, the United States, to satisfy increased domestic demand. With a large but aged refining network, the region has not invested enough to add new capacity. The biggest projects have undergone long delays, suggesting the region will keep increasing fuel imports in the coming years.

Refining DA – Latin America is Key/Links

U.S. refineries are thriving. Exports to Latin America are keyAlexis Arthur, energy policy associate at the Institute of the Americas, September 4, 2013, “US Refineries Respond to Latin American Shortfall,” OilPrice.com, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Refineries-Respond-to-Latin-American-Shortfall.html, Accessed 11/20/20132013 has been a bumper year for United States’ refineries and it is in no small part thanks to its largest overseas market -- Latin America. Although Latin America’s oil production has grown steadily in recent years, the region’s refineries have been unable to keep pace with rising demand, particularly in the transport sector. The shortfall has prompted Victorio Oxilia, president of the Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE), to declare the increase in petroleum product imports one of the region’s most pressing energy concerns.

Latin America spends billions on importing U.S. fuelMurray Stassen, Staff Writer, November 18, 2013, “US fuel exports to Latin America double in last five years,” World Finance, http://www.worldfinance.com/markets/energy/us-fuel-exports-to-latin-america-double-in-last-five-years, Accessed 11/20/2013Figures reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that 1.36 million barrels per day were being purchased by the biggest Latin American importers. In 2008 the region was importing around half of this amount, close to 657,000 barrels per day. According to a report by Reuters, the twelve primary Latin American fuel importers spent a total of $65bn on US fuel in 2012.

Latin America accounts for over half of U.S. refined petroleum exportsAlexis Arthur, energy policy associate at the Institute of the Americas, September 4, 2013, “US Refineries Respond to Latin American Shortfall,” OilPrice.com, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Refineries-Respond-to-Latin-American-Shortfall.html, Accessed 11/20/2013US Gulf Coast refineries have responded quickly to rising global demand, and Latin America has become their largest overseas market . US refined petroleum exports rose 260 percent from 2005 to 2012, and were at 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in June 2013 according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Over half of these exports are destined for Latin America and the Caribbean. Over a quarter go to Mexico, Brazil and Chile alone. These figures should not come as a surprise. Mexico, Chile, and Brazil have seen strong economic growth in recent years, bringing with it an expanded middle class and a commensurate appetite for consumer goods, including cars. Unable to meet the gasoline and diesel demand at home, Latin America’s large economies in particular have turned to the United States. US petroleum product exports to Mexico have nearly tripled since 2004 according to the EIA, reaching 440,000 bpd in June 2013. According to Mexico’s National Statistics Institute INEGI, the country’s middle class accounts for around 40 percent of the population.

Refining DA – No New L.A. Refineries / Links

New refineries are a long way off and fuel imports continue to riseMarianna Parraga, Staff Writer, November 19, 2013, “Latin America hook on U.S. fuel imports, dependence is growing,” Petroleum World, http://www.petroleumworld.com/storyt13111901.htm, Accessed 11/25/2013Though Latin American leaders spent much of the last decade opening markets in Asia and in some cases distancing themselves from Washington, the rising fuel imports show they still must tap the United States for crucial supplies. Latin America's dependence on the United States for refined fuels is growing at the same time that U.S. reliance on foreign oil falls thanks to an unprecedented boom in domestic production and falling fuel demand. While Latin American countries have planned to build some new refineries, they are a long way from coming to fruition.

New refineries are a long way off at best. It’s easy to import U.S. productsMarianna Parraga, Staff Writer, November 17, 2013, “Analysis: Latin America grows increasingly hooked on U.S. fuel imports,” Reuters, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/17/us-oil-latam-imports-idUKBRE9AG07120131117, Accessed 11/18/2013The region aims to limit its growing dependence on fuel imports by adding more than 2 million bpd of new refining capacity from 2015 to 2021, according to industry experts. But construction work on numerous plants has been delayed several times as costs escalate into the billions of dollars. Plans to modernize existing refineries have also been postponed. Among numerous failed or delayed projects in the region, Ecuador's new 300,000 bpd refinery on the Pacific Coast has run into a series of financing problems despite partnerships announced with Chinese and Venezuelan companies. With a budget of $12.5 billion, construction has advanced only 1.6 percent since ground was broken five years ago, according to state-run Petroecuador's website. "Latin American refineries are buying residuals and intermediate fuels to feed refineries that have unplanned stoppages or to cover the incremental demand of diesel and gasoline," a trader said. He added that buying finished fuels from U.S. refineries is easy for Latin America because its close proximity to plants on the U.S. Gulf Coast ensures quick delivery.

Brazil can’t compensate for the region’s refinery shortfallAlexis Arthur, energy policy associate at the Institute of the Americas, September 4, 2013, “US Refineries Respond to Latin American Shortfall,” OilPrice.com, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Refineries-Respond-to-Latin-American-Shortfall.html, Accessed 11/20/2013Brazil’s refining sector highlights many of these challenges. The country’s refining capacity – estimated at just over 2 million barrels per day – has been outpaced by its demand for gasoline and diesel, leading the state-owned oil company Petrobras to import both fuels at great expense. While two refineries are currently under construction, the first of these in Pernambuco state has been severely delayed and will not be finished until 2014 at the earliest. Possible joint ventures with the China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and South Korea’s GS Energy Corporation are under consideration but would not be ready till several years later. If current consumption trends continue, and these additional ventures do not materialize, Petrobras estimates that the country’s processing shortfall will reach close to 1 million barrels per day by 2020. In the meantime, Brazil must import the necessary value-added petroleum products and sell them at a loss on the subsidized domestic market.

Latin American dependence has doubled over the past five years because refineries can’t keep upMarianna Parraga, Staff Writer, November 19, 2013, “Latin America hook on U.S. fuel imports, dependence is growing,” Petroleum World, http://www.petroleumworld.com/storyt13111901.htm, Accessed 11/25/2013Despite its own vast oil reserves, Latin America has doubled its reliance on the United States for fuels like diesel and gasoline over the last five years to keep its economies humming - and the dependence is growing. The culprit is an outdated refining network that has not been upgraded to add capacity as growth has surged across much of the region.

Refining DA – Mexico Links

Mexico’s proximity make it easy for massive U.S. fuel exportsAlexis Arthur, energy policy associate at the Institute of the Americas, September 4, 2013, “US Refineries Respond to Latin American Shortfall,” OilPrice.com, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Refineries-Respond-to-Latin-American-Shortfall.html, Accessed 11/20/2013But while countries like Brazil have clear financial incentives to boost their refining capabilities, others such as Mexico that finds itself in close proximity to cheap, abundant exports may not. Indeed, one of the most important global energy trends in the last five years has been the emergence of abundant unconventional resources across the Western Hemisphere but nowhere has this had more impact than in the United States. The success of the energy revolution in the United States means that its refineries will continue to provide stiff competition for those in the rest of the Hemisphere.

Refining DA – Mexico / PEMEX Links

Increasing PEMEX capacity will undermine U.S. exports by 9%David Alire Garcia and Adriana Barrera, Staff Writers, May 22, 2013, “Mexico's Pemex to add 30,000 bpd capacity to top refinery,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/23/us-latam-summit-pemex-refining-idUSBRE94L1BH20130523, Accessed 11/20/2013State oil monopoly Pemex will boost capacity at its biggest refinery, Salinas Cruz, by 9 percent in a $4 billion expansion, its head of refining said, part of Mexico's aim to wean itself off supplies of refined production from the United States. The Mexican government will seek a major overhaul of the domestic industry later this year, and Pemex is under pressure to boost output and efficiency in the country's lumbering energy sector.

PEMEX is investing in refined petroleum transportation from import sites. They know most demand will be met by importsJames Fredrick, Staff Writer, November 4, 2013, “Pemex scraps US$12bn Tula refinery,” BNamericas, Accessed 11/20/2013, http://www.bnamericas.com/news/oilandgas/pemex-scraps-us12bn-tula-refineryAccording to the plan, gasoline demand is expected to increase 5.2% annually through 2020 while demand for other refined products will increase 3.7%. This means the country needs "infrastructure projects for the transportation of refined petroleum products from their import points to national markets." As such, Pemex Refinación will carry out nine pipeline expansions through 2016 and build two more, one in 2015 and another in 2018. It is also relocating and expanding the Tapachula (Chiapas state) and Reynosa (Tamaulipas state) storage and distribution facilities and building two new storage and distribution facilities, one in the central region and one for the Caribbean. By 2018, Pemex expects 53% of gasoline demand to be met with imports compared to 43% today.

PEMEX is a disaster with almost $8 billion in refining losses. Mexican imports from the U.S. account for half of consumptionFox News Latino, Staff Writer, October 23, 2013, “Mexico's Pemex to incur $7.7 bn refining loss in 2013,” http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2013/10/23/mexico-pemex-to-incur-77-bn-refining-loss-in-2013/, Accessed 11/20/2013Mexican state oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos said it expected to incur some 100 billion pesos ($7.7 billion) in losses in 2013 in its refining unit alone. "In refining alone, projected losses for 2013 are nearly 100 billion pesos, almost 1 percent of gross domestic product," CEO Emilio Lozoya said at a business gathering Tuesday in the western city of Guadalajara. Refining losses totaled 142 billion pesos ($10.9 billion) for all of last year and 79.9 billion pesos ($6.1 billion) in the first half of 2013. Despite being one of the world's leading oil producers, Mexico must import nearly half of the gasoline it consumes due to lack of domestic refining capacity.

PEMEX backed off new refinery purchasesJames Fredrick, Staff Writer, November 4, 2013, “Pemex scraps US$12bn Tula refinery,” BNamericas, Accessed 11/20/2013, http://www.bnamericas.com/news/oilandgas/pemex-scraps-us12bn-tula-refinery

Mexico's national oil company Pemex has omitted the US$11.6bn Tula Bicentenario refinery in central Hidalgo state from its 2014-18 business plan. The refinery does not appear in refining unit Pemex Refinación's main objectives or investments outlined in the plan , approved by the board of directors in July but published last week. The latest estimates said the refinery would launch in 2017. The facility was expected to process 250,000b/d heavy Maya crude plus 76,000b/d residuals from the adjacent Miguel Hidalgo refinery. It was expected to produce 165,000b/d gasoline and 116,000b/d diesel, in addition to other refined products.

Refining DA – Venezuela Links

Venezuelan demand is growing and will be satisfied by importsMarianna Parraga, Staff Writer, November 17, 2013, “FACTBOX-Latin American refining projects face delays,” CNBC Business News, http://www.cnbc.com/id/101204919, Accessed 11/20/2013While delaying its overseas joint refining projects, Venezuelan PDVSA has also not made concrete progress expanding its 1.3 million bpd domestic refining network. The company has three new refineries planned for its portfolio, as well as the expansion of two medium-sized units. But it has postponed the inauguration dates. It now plans to add some 25,000 bpd of capacity by 2015 and 140,000 bpd by 2016. The Venezuelan refining network was designed to satisfy domestic demand of 770,000 bpd and export finished products. But lack of maintenance and a severe explosion last year in the main refinery, Amuay, limit current processing rates. That has forced PDVSA to import components and finished products, even as internal demand grows quickly because of gasoline subsidies and the installation of more thermoelectrical plants.

PDVSA mismanagement has led to massively escalating refined products from the U.S.James Parker, Staff Writer, October 29, 2013, “China’s Venezuela Exposure,” The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2013/10/chinas-venezuela-exposure/, Accessed 11/26/2013The mismanagement at PDVSA is a root cause of many of the problems, even if it results directly from nationalization policies (which drove away much foreign investment and more importantly technology in the oil industry), and the failure to allow the company to retain enough of its income to invest in future production, or for that matter in an ability to refine petroleum products for the home market. The result: Venezuela only exported roughly 1.7 million barrels per day of oil in 2012, down from 3.1 million barrels per day in 1997. Meanwhile, imports of refined products (from the U.S.) have jumped from an annual total of $568.9 million in 2011 up to $3.3 billion in 2012.

Exports to Venezuela have doubled this yearMatthew Philips, associate editor for Bloomberg Businessweek, November 25, 2013, “Are U.S. Gasoline Exports About to Goose Prices at the Pump?,” Bloomberg Businessweek, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-11-25/are-u-dot-s-dot-gasoline-exports-about-to-goose-prices-at-the-pump, Accessed 11/25/2013So where’s all that American-made fuel going? Some of the biggest demand has come from Central and South America. Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela have all more than doubled the amount of refined fuel they import from the U.S. since 2010. Demand has spiked particularly in Venezuela , which since 2012 has imported an average of more than 2 million barrels a month of refined petroleum products from the U.S. From 1993 through 2011, monthly exports to Venezuela averaged about 500,000 barrels.

Lack of refining capacity hinders Venezuelan exports nowMery Mogollon, Staff Writer, November 25, 2013, “At the Wellhead: Venezuela’s upgraders are maxed out to handle its heavy oil,” Platts Oil’s The Barrell (blog), http://blogs.platts.com/2013/11/25/pdvsa-woes/, Accessed 11/25/2013

Venezuela is producing more extra heavy crude in its oil fields in the Orinoco Belt region than it can process in the four “upgraders” that were built more than a decade ago. The upgraders were built by foreign oil companies and have a combined capacity of 630,000 b/d, or 51% of the actual aggregated output. With 297 billion barrels in proved and probable reserves covering more than 55,000 square kilometers in Venezuela’s southeast, the Orinoco Belt is one of the world’s greatest oil repositories. But a lack of investment in recent years has stressed its refining, upgrading and transport infrastructure and is impeding increases in output.

Refining DA – Petroleum Exports Reduce Trade Deficit

Sustaining high refined petroleum exports will wipe out the trade deficitMark P. Mills, Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute, May 2013, “The Case for Exports: America's Hydrocarbon Industry Can Revive the Economy and Eliminate the Trade Deficit,” Power & Growth Initiative Report, No. 3, http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/ pgi_03.htm#.Uo0-bsQ86m5, Accessed 11/20/2013One of the biggest economic benefits from this energy boom will be the opportunity to eliminate America's massive GDP-shrinking and job-robbing trade deficit. Increasing domestic production so that the U.S. can reduce imports and increase exports of fuels, combined with increased production and exports of energy-centric products such as chemicals and fertilizers, can put the nation on track to wipe out nearly all the $750 billion annual trade deficit. The only way to stop the private sector from achieving all this—without subsidy—is for the government to prohibit production or inhibit sales into any market that makes economic sense.

High fuel exports reduce the trade deficitJ.R. Reed, Financial Analyst, August 8, 2013, “Exports, Energy Production are Bright Spots for the U.S. Economy,” Free Enterprise, http://www.freeenterprise.com/energy-environment/exports-energy-production-are-bright-spots-us-economy, Accessed, 11/20/2013Thanks to increased U.S. exports and a significantly lower demand for oil imports, America’s trade deficit shrunk drastically in June – a trend that could signal great news for second quarter GDP numbers. The Department of Commerce recently announced that the trade gap fell more than 22%. Exports rose 2.2%, the highest monthly rate since October 2012, to an all-time high of $191.2 billion, while imports declined 2.2% to $225.4 billion. Part of that drop off, according to Commerce is because foreign oil consumption fell to its lowest level in more than two years. This is all good news and a sign that the economy gained ground this spring, according to economists, who say we will see a sizeable upward revision in the government’s economic growth estimate for the April-June quarter (which had been predicted to be a lackluster 1.7%). In fact, many say the second estimate, scheduled for August 29, should be closer to a 2.5% annual rate due to the improved trade situation.

Refining DA – A2: Imports Increasing Now

The trade deficit is dropping now because of petroleum exports which offset higher importsDavid J. Unger, Staff writer, October 8, 2013, “Fracking the US trade deficit,” Christian Science Monitor, Accessed 11/24/2013, http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2013/1008/Fracking-the-US-trade-deficit-video, The US trade deficit dropped 3.5 percent from $559.9 billion in 2011 to $540.4 billion in 2012. A 10.7 percent reduction in the petroleum trade deficit helped offset an 8.8 percent increase in the trade deficit of nonpetroleum goods . Improved efficiency measures are also helping to drive down demand for foreign fuels. In June, the US trade deficit dropped to $34.2 billion, the smallest it's been since October 2009. It expanded slightly in July and is expected to have expanded again in August, but Tuesday's numbers were not available from the Department of Commerce because of the ongoing government shutdown. Despite the slight rebound, domestic oil and gas production is expected to continue to help balance the trade deficit, or at least keep it in check. This year, the US is expected to surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, according to data released last week by the US Energy Information Administration. In oil alone, the US is projected to become the world’s largest producer by around 2020, according to the International Energy Agency.

Refining DA – Reducing Trade Deficit Key to the Economy

A widening trade deficit drags down the economy and causes unemploymentAlain Sherter, Staff Writer, May 10, 2012, “How the U.S. trade gaps hurts the economy,” MoneyWatch, CBS News, Accessed 11/24/2013, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-the-us-trade-gaps-hurts-the-economy/How does offshoring relate to America's growing trade deficit? Both stifle job-creation, which in turn is affected by U.S. trade policy. Since 2001, for example, the U.S. trade gap with China has resulted in a loss of 2.8 million jobs, according to the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington think-tank. More broadly, a widening deficit can act as a drag on the economy by muting the job-creating effects of consumer spending. Why? Because when people hit their local mall or big-box retailer, what they buy is mostly made abroad. That creates more jobs overseas than it does here. It also weakens the impact of government stimulus by reducing the "multiplier" effect you get when formerly unemployed workers in the U.S. suddenly have a job and money in their pockets. (Again, the idea there is that higher consumer spending drives hiring, which continues the virtuous circle by pushing up spending.)

Reducing the trade deficit leads to higher growth and jobs while reducing the budget deficitJared Bernstein, senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and Dean Baker, a co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, November 6, 2013, “Taking Aim at the Wrong Deficit,” New York Times, Accessed 11/24/2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/07/opinion/taking-aim-at-the-wrong-deficit.html?_r=1&Simply put, lowering the budget deficit right now leads to slower growth. But reducing the trade deficit would have the opposite effect. Not only that, but by increasing growth and getting more people back to work in higher-than-average value-added jobs, a lower trade deficit would itself help to reduce the budget deficit. Running a trade deficit means that income generated in the United States is being spent elsewhere. In that situation, labor demand — jobs to produce imported goods — shifts from here to there.

Closing the trade deficit can jumpstart the manufacturing sector and jobsRobert E. Scott, Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Research, Helene Jorgensen, Staff Writer, and Doug Hall, Director of the Economic Analysis and Research Network (EARN), February 7, 2013, “Reducing U.S. trade deficits will generate a manufacturing-based recovery for the United States and Ohio,” Economic Policy Institute, http://www.epi.org/publication/bp351-trade-deficit-currency-manipulation/, Accessed 11/24/2013While it is beyond the scope of this paper to detail a comprehensive program to develop a world-class environment to support U.S. manufacturing, it is clear that such programs are necessary and would greatly aid expansion of manufacturing and other traded industries, creating millions of additional jobs. Rebuilding manufacturing through rebalancing trade can help restructure the U.S. economy, close the output gap, and help return the U.S. economy to full employment. In the absence of such programs, the United States appears destined to suffer through a “lost decade” or more of excessive unemployment and output far below potential.

History proves a lower trade deficit correlates to higher jobs and GDPJared Bernstein, senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and Dean Baker, a co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, November 6, 2013, “Taking Aim at the Wrong Deficit,” New York Times, Accessed 11/24/2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/07/opinion/taking-aim-at-the-wrong-deficit.html?_r=1&The trade deficit equals the excess of imports over exports. Homing in on the relationship between imports and GDP and between imports and jobs, a very clear, strong, positive relationship is evident for nearly the entirety of the period. As the charts below reveal, in years when imports increase over the previous year, U.S. GDP and employment tend to increase from the previous year. In years when imports show a decline, output and employment also tend to decline. The high incidence of observations in the upper-right and lower-left quadrants in both graphs suggests positive relationships between imports and output. In fact, in only one of the 44 years observed did imports and output move in different directions. The relationship between imports and jobs is also demonstrated to be positive. In 39 of the 44 years observed, the measurements moved in the same direction.

The domestic energy boom has led to higher petroleum exports that are shrinking the trade deficit. We’re on path toward more jobs and economic growthDavid J. Unger, Staff writer, October 8, 2013, “Fracking the US trade deficit,” Christian Science Monitor, Accessed 11/24/2013, http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2013/1008/Fracking-the-US-trade-deficit-video, The US is slowly chipping away at its trade deficit, which should create more jobs, more economic growth, less unemployment, and a smaller federal deficit. And the boom in domestic energy production is a key factor behind that narrowing trade deficit. Over the past decade, oil and gas production has surged at vast shale formations in Texas, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and elsewhere across the US. That has led to a rise in exports of petroleum products and a reduction in the amount of oil and gas the US imports from abroad.

A rising trade deficit destroys jobs and causes outsourcingAlain Sherter, Staff Writer, May 10, 2012, “How the U.S. trade gaps hurts the economy,” MoneyWatch, CBS News, Accessed 11/24/2013, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-the-us-trade-gaps-hurts-the-economy/As the trade deficit has grown, meanwhile, U.S. businesses have moved a lot more jobs abroad in recent years than they've created at home. Between 1999 and 2008 U.S. multinationals slashed their domestic workforce by 1.9 million, while increasing overseas employment by 2.4 million, economist Martin Sullivan has shown. And it's not only about wages. The U.S. has lost more manufacturing jobs since 2000 than several countries that pay their workers more, including Australia, France, Germany, and Sweden. Nor is it only about manufacturing. The number of financial services, IT, HR, and other white-collar jobs lost to offshoring has risen since the financial crisis.

Refining DA – A2: Trade Has A Small Effect

Trade might only have a small effect now, but the rising volume of exports will continually drive it downVictoria Stilwell, Staff Writer, September 4, 2013, “Widening Trade Gap Signals Improving U.S. Demand: Economy,” Bloomberg News, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-04/trade-gap-in-u-s-widened-in-july-from-almost-four-year-low.html, Accessed 11/24/2013After eliminating the influence of price changes, the trade deficit widened to $47.7 billion from $43.8 billion in June. The reading for July matched the second-quarter average, indicating trade is so far having little influence on third-quarter gross domestic product. The economy expanded more than estimated in the second quarter, with GDP increasing at a 2.5 percent annualized rate, up from an initial estimate of 1.7 percent, the Commerce Department said Aug. 29. The trade deficit in the second quarter was smaller than previously estimated, reflecting the biggest gain in exports in more than two years.

Refining DA – Economy Internal Links/UQ

Petroleum exports are already lifting the trade deficit burden of the economy and will continue to growMatthew Philips, Associate Editor, September 3, 2013, “A Shrinking U.S. Trade Deficit—Brought to You by Fracking,” Bloomberg Businessweek, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-03/a-shrinking-u-dot-s-dot-trade-deficit-brought-to-you-by-fracking, Accessed 11/20/2013The story of the shrinking U.S. trade deficit is essentially the story of the U.S. oil boom . The last time the U.S. came close to balancing out the trade deficit, at least in terms of its share of GDP, was just after a recession ended in 1991. To feed the broad expansion that followed, U.S. oil imports grew by more than 130 percent over the next 15 years, from 192 million barrels a month in early 1991 to a peak of about 455 million barrels a month in the summer of 2006.As the price of oil went from about $20 a barrel to close to $80 per barrel over that time, the trade deficit blew out, dragging down growth. According to Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at Bank of the West, from 1996 to 2006 the widening trade imbalance chewed an average of 0.5 percentage points off GDP growth each year. Now that U.S. refiners are replacing imported crude with domestic oil from North Dakota, Texas, and Oklahoma, trade is starting to be less of a drag on the economy. In 2011, the U.S. became a net exporter of petroleum products for the first time in 60 years. The U.S. has always been a refining powerhouse, particularly along the Gulf Coast, which accounts for about 70 percent of all U.S. petroleum exports. Now that refiners have an abundant supply of high quality, relatively cheap crude to tap domestically, they can really flex their muscles abroad.

The U.S. economy is growing now because refined petroleum exports are high and pushing down the trade deficitMatthew Philips, Associate Editor, September 3, 2013, “A Shrinking U.S. Trade Deficit—Brought to You by Fracking,” Bloomberg Businessweek, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-03/a-shrinking-u-dot-s-dot-trade-deficit-brought-to-you-by-fracking, Accessed 11/20/2013Almost entirely on the back of stronger exports, last week the U.S. Commerce Department revised upward its economic growth estimate for the second quarter, from 1.7 to 2.5 percent. Exports from April to June grew at their fastest pace in two years, pushing down the U.S. trade deficit to 2.7 percent of gross domestic product. That’s less than half what it was at its peak of around 6 percent of GDP in late 2005.Most of the boost in exports came from tangible stuff sold abroad: goods, rather than services. The biggest among them were petroleum products refined from all the crude oil the U.S. is producing—unlocked by fracking. Through June, the U.S. has exported an average of 99 million barrels of petroleum each month over the past year. That’s roughly quadruple the amount the U.S. was exporting a decade ago.

Politics

Cuba – Political Capital Internal

Obama just embraced lifting the embargoFernando Ravsberg, Staff Writer, November 14, 2013, “Obama on US Cuba Policy,” Havana Times, Accessed 11/17/2013, http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=100045The news is going around the world: US President Barack Obama has realized that changes are taking place in Cuba and, in response to this, he wishes to “update” the country’s policy towards Havana, which practically hasn’t changed since the 60s. His advisors have finally realized that, in Cuba, political prisoners have been released, cultivable lands are being distributed among farmers, laws authorizing self-employment and small enterprises have been passed, a measure of access to the Internet and hotels has been made available and people are now entitled to buy houses and travel abroad. Obama says that, now, they must “be creative” and “continue to update our policies,” a veritable change of course for a president who, during his electoral campaign, thought the economic embargo would be the magic lever that would allow the United States to move Cuba.

Obama is pushing to lift embargo now. He will get credit or blameVOA News, Staff Writer, November 8, 2013, “Obama Calls for Updated US Policy on Cuba,” http://www.voanews.com/content/obama-us-needs-to-update-policy-on-cuba/1786893.html, Accessed 11/9/2013U.S. President Barack Obama says it is time for the United States to revise its policies regarding Cuba. Speaking in Miami Friday, Obama said it doesn't make sense that policies put in place more than 50 years ago would still be effective in the Internet age. The president pointed out that Cuban leader Fidel Castro came into power in 1961, the same year Obama was born. The United States cut off diplomatic relations with Cuba that same year and imposed an economic embargo a year later. The U.S. embargo against Cuba is controversial internationally. In October, the United Nations voted to condemn it for the 22nd time. The Obama administration has engaged in recent discussions with the Cubans on migration and mail, and has relaxed travel and remittance rules for Cuban Americans.

Immigration – Obama Pushing Now

Obama is strongly pushing for immigration reformCarla Marinucci, Kevin Fagan and Stephanie Lee, Staff Writers, November 25, 2013, “Obama, in S.F., hails Batkid, pushes immigration reform,” San Francisco Chronicle, http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Obama-in-S-F-hails-Batkid-pushes-immigration-5010392.php, Accessed 11/27/2013President Obama issued an impassioned call Monday for Congress to pass immigration reform during a visit to San Francisco that - in true city-by-the-bay fashion - included everything from a nod to Batkid to an exchange with a protester who pleaded with him to halt all immigrant deportations. Obama's frank conversation with the protester came during an invitation-only address before 400 people at a Chinatown recreation center. Later, at a sold-out fundraiser at the SFJazz Center, the president again found himself in conversation with a shouting audience member who urged him to bypass congressional Republicans and use executive orders to accomplish major reforms. In both cases, Obama delivered a sobering message: "There's no shortcut to democracy" and work on such important issues will be hard. But, as he told the fundraiser audience, "we have to keep pushing."

Obama is pushing for immigration reform nowKevin Liptak, Staff Writer, November 25, 2013, “As Obama makes turn to immigration, protests that he's not doing enough,” CNN, http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/11/25/as-obama-makes-turn-to-immigration-protests-that-hes-not-doing-enough/, Accessed 11/27/2013Seeking to move his domestic agenda away from the disappointments of health care reform, President Obama made another pitch for an immigration overhaul Monday, calling on lawmakers to restart an effort that stalled over the summer. But even as he made his pitch at a recreation center serving mainly Chinese-Americans in San Francisco, Obama was loudly interrupted by a group who says the President's not doing enough to end deportations of undocumented immigrants.

Russia

Latin America Links

Russia attaches high importance to its engagement in Latin AmericaVoice of Russia, Staff Writers, October, 29, 2013, “Russia interested in expanding contacts with regional Latin American organizations – Putin,” http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2013_10_29/Russia-interested-in-expanding-contacts-with-regional-Latin-American-organizations-Putin-0951/, Accessed 11/27/2013Russia is interested in expanding contacts with regional organizations in Latin America, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated. "Russia is interested in expanding contacts with regional organizations in Latin America," Putin said in the Kremlin following negotiations with Ecuador President Rafael Correa. The Russian leader also noted that the two countries are successfully cooperating in the realm of combating organized crime and drug trafficking. "We intend to continue our active cooperation in fighting against terrorism financing, legalizing revenues obtained illegally and cybercrimes," Putin said.

Mexico Links

Russia and Mexico are deeply engaged economicallyNikolay Kholodkov, Doctor of Economics, Leading Research Fellow, RAS Institute for Latin American Studies, RIAC expert, November 12, 2013, “Is There a Chance for a Breakthrough in Russian-Mexican Economic Relations?,” News Europe, Accessed 11/27/2013, http://newseurope.me/2013/11/12/chance-breakthrough-russian-mexican-economic-relations-2/In recent years Mexico has become Russia’s key economic partner in Latin America, although despite noticeable growth, there is significant untapped potential in terms of economic cooperation between the two countries. The issue on the agenda is improving the business cooperation model in order to enhance the dynamics and stability of reciprocal flows of goods and services.

Russia wants to economically engage Mexico over PEMEXNikolay Kholodkov, Doctor of Economics, Leading Research Fellow, RAS Institute for Latin American Studies, RIAC expert, November 12, 2013, “Is There a Chance for a Breakthrough in Russian-Mexican Economic Relations?,” News Europe, Accessed 11/27/2013, http://newseurope.me/2013/11/12/chance-breakthrough-russian-mexican-economic-relations-2/In order to improve the structure of Russian exports by lowering the share of raw materials and augmenting machinery and equipment, it seems logical to focus on cooperation in areas in which Russian firms possess the requisite technologies and international cooperation experience, i.e. in fuel and energy, metallurgy, chemical and petrochemical industry, farming, protection of environment, and renewable energy. The outlook should brighten if Mexico adopts President Nieto’s bill terminating the state monopoly on hydrocarbons and the admission of private investors, including foreigners, to exploration and production of oil and gas. Should this happen, the state company Pemex will gain the right to contract foreign firms (including foreign entities) in hydrocarbon development, production, refining, transportation and storage.

Brazil

Cuba Link

Brazil has strong political and economic ties with CubaMary A. O’Grady, Staff Writer, November 3, 2013, “Why the NSA Watches Brazil,” Wall St. Journal, Accessed 11/27/2013, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304527504579172003607958112, The Brazilian relationship with Cuba is especially troubling. Instead of showing solidarity with Cuba's victims of oppression, the diplomat noted, "former president Lula da Silva often takes investors to the island to fortify the Castros' dictatorship. The money invested by the Brazilians in the development of the superport of Mariel, near Havana, is estimated to be $1 billion." Support for Cuba, which remains unrelenting in its worship of totalitarianism wherever it is found in the world, puts Brazil on the wrong side of geopolitics. In July, Panama intercepted a North Korean ship that had left Cuba and was headed for the Asia. It carried undeclared weapons, fuel and two MiG-21 fighter jets. Cuba tried to explain the shipment by saying that the military cargo was aging equipment in need of repair. But on Oct. 10 the McClatchy newspapers reported that Panamanian officials now say that the jets were in good condition, "had been recently flown and were accompanied by 'brand-new' jet engines."

***Aff. & Advantage – Extenions***

Cuba

A2: Conditions / QPQ CP – Status Quo

The status quo conditions lifting the embargo on democratic and human rights reformsCarl Meacham, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Catherine Krege, intern scholar, and Jillian Rafferty, staff assistant, both with the CSIS Americas Program, provided research assistance, October 29, 2013, “Cuba: Finding its Place in the Global Market?,” Critical Questions (CSIS), http://csis.org/publication/cuba-finding-its-place-global-market, Accessed 11/7/2013For now, though, U.S. policy remains clear: the embargo will not be lifted without significant democratizing reforms and improvements on human rights concerns—with a few exceptions, such as agricultural and medical exports, for which the United States is Cuba’s primary supplier. Still, the outcome of the UN vote and the changing commercial and financial reality in Cuba suggest that, at the very least, an evaluation—which many regard as way overdue—of that relationship may be worth our while.

A2: Kritiks of Rationality

The embargo against Cuba is wholly irrationalCésar Chelala, MD, PhD, November 4, 2013, “The Folly of the Embargo on Cuba,” The WIP, http://thewip.net/talk/2013/11/the_ folly_of_the_embargo_on_cu.html, Accessed 11/9/2013At a time when relations between Iran and the West have the potential to improve, after many years of antagonism, it is worth reflecting on the fact that relations between nations can contribute either to a climate of antagonism and war, or one of cooperation and peace that extends even beyond the countries in conflict. Nowhere is this truer than in the relationship between the United States and Cuba. Irrationality reigns. The trade embargo against Cuba, the most enduring in modern history, has been strongly criticized not only by those sympathetic to the Cuban regime but also by many leading US officials and legislators. In 2005, George P. Schultz, Secretary of State under President Ronald Reagan, called the continuing embargo “insane.” Now, by a vote 188 to 2, and for the 22nd time, the United Nations condemned the US blockade of Cuba.

There is no justification for the embargo in CubaJake Offenhartz, Staff Writer, November 21, 2013, “(Past) time to end the Cuban embargo,” Michigan Daily, Accessed 11/21/2013, http://www.michigandaily.com/opinion/11jake-offenhartz-past-time-end-cuban-embargo22While the arcane policy has had little success in bringing an end to the Castro regime, it has been widely effective in crippling basic human rights for much of the Cuban population. Some may excuse the embargo as a matter of Cold War inertia, sure to end once the aging exiles lose their political pull or the memory of the Cuban Missile Crisis fades from our nation’s collective consciousness. But there is no justification for this calamitous destruction, and no apology should be issued for a policy that harms innocent people. The enduring existence of the Cuban embargo is unacceptable, and its abolition is long overdue.

A2: Human Rights Abuses Justify the Embargo

Using human rights to justify the embargo is hypocritical and ignores events on the ground. The embargo is an excuse to oppress the Cuban peopleChandra Muzaffar, PhD. And President of the International Movement for a Just World (JUST), November, 13, 2013, “The Blockade Against Cuba: An Assault Upon Humanity's Conscience,” Counter Currents, http://www.countercurrents.org/muzaffar131113.htm, Accessed 11/17/2013US leaders have sought to justify the blockade as a sort of punitive measure against an allegedly gross violator of human rights. While there have been transgressions against civil and political liberties, the US establishment ignores the fact that there is considerable grassroots participation in political decision-making in Cuba and a great deal of debate on public policies which includes criticisms of the political leadership. In any case, the US which is more of a plutocracy than a democracy has not been able to ensure some of the fundamental rights of its own citizens, including their right to affordable health care. Worse still, it has in the decades that the blockade has been in force, colluded and conspired with harsh, brutal dictatorships in numerous countries with a hideous reputation for suppressing their people.

Economic Reforms Happening Now

Castro is reorganizing the Cuban economy to expand free market opportunitiesNile Bowie, political analyst RT News, November 01, 2013, “Isolated & discredited: Intransigent US policy impedes Cuba’s reforms,” RT News, http://rt.com/op-edge/us-cuba-economic-benefits-089/, Accessed 11/7/2013President Raúl Castro, who is seen to be more pragmatic and less ideological than his brother Fidel, unveiled an ongoing series of reforms in 2010 aimed at moving the island’s stagnant Soviet-style economy toward a mixed economy, with market functions similar to that of China or Vietnam. In an effort to reduce dependency on a bloated state-bureaucracy, Havana laid off some 500,000 state workers, while significantly relaxing prohibitions on small business activity and the individual hiring of labor. Former state-employees were encouraged to go into business for themselves by driving taxis, opening barbershops, clothing shops and restaurants. Farmers were allowed to sell their goods for a profit, while state-owned companies were permitted to keep 50 percent of their after-tax income to reinvest in productivity, indicating measures to attract foreign investment capital.

Cuba is deregulating agricultureMarc Frank, Staff Writer, November 8, 2013, “Cuba rolls out master plan for food production and distribution,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/08/us-cuba-food-reform-idUSBRE9A70QC20131108, Accessed 11/17/2013Cuba rolled out a master plan this week to reform food production and sales that definitively ends the state's monopoly on distribution and replaces many rules that hamper farmers and consumers. A decree, which puts the management of most food distribution in non-state hands, will be applied on an experimental basis in Havana and the adjoining provinces of Artemisa and Mayabeque before going nationwide beginning in 2015. With the country importing around 60 percent of its food and private farmers outperforming state farms on a fraction of the land, authorities are gradually deregulating the sector and leasing fallow land to would-be farmers.

Cuban Economy Adv. – A2: Port Solves

Cuba’s new port won’t be enough to jumpstart the economyAndrea Rodriguez, Staff Writer, November 11, 2013, “Cuban leaders eye new port as economic lifeline,” ABC News, http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/cuban-leaders-eye-port-economic-lifeline-20847407, Accessed 11/16/2013Simply swapping one port for another, however, won't be enough to right Cuba's rickety economy, which relies heavily on food and other imports while making most of its foreign income from tourism, nickel mining and the export of services such as tens of thousands of medical professionals. Authorities hope to attract foreign firms to invest and set up shop in the development zone, with a priority on industries such as food, biotech, renewable energy, packaging and telecommunications. Foreign companies that answer the call will be exempted from paying taxes on labor, profits and sales and services, at least at first. Tax rates will rise to 12 percent on profits after a decade of operation and 1 percent on sales and services after 12 months. "It will be a world-class special zone," said Ana Teresa Igarza, director of the office overseeing the development zone during a presentation about the port last week at the Havana Trade Fair. Still, Cuba has had trouble keeping the foreign investors already here, most of which are joint ventures with government agencies.

Ethics Adv. – Embargo Unethical

The U.S. embargo against Cuba is unethical. It denies them the means for better lives and represents an assault on the collective conscience of humanityChandra Muzaffar, PhD. And President of the International Movement for a Just World (JUST), November, 13, 2013, “The Blockade Against Cuba: An Assault Upon Humanity's Conscience,” Counter Currents, http://www.countercurrents.org/muzaffar131113.htm, Accessed 11/17/2013Why is the whole world against the blockade which prohibits US firms from selling or buying any product or service from Cuba? The blockade denies Cuba access to technology which would have helped to boost the efforts of the government to raise the standard of living of the people. It also prohibits trade and commerce with one of the world’s biggest markets which in turn would have increased Cuba’s national revenue and contributed to its economic growth and development. It has been estimated for instance that the blockade which began in 1960 has deprived Cuba of 1.126 trillion US dollars over the last 52 years. Governments and peoples everywhere cannot comprehend why the world’s only superpower would want to strangulate a small, poor country of 11 million people with meagre resources which --- contrary to what the US elite says --- poses no threat to its security! It is because the US blockade is such a travesty of justice that the human family has come together over and over again to defend Cuba. Starkly put, the blockade is an assault upon the collective conscience of humanity.

International Law Adv. – Internal Links

The Cuban embargo violates international lawIke Nahem, coordinator of Cuba Solidarity New York, November 9, 2013, “Isolation: Another Vote on Washington's Anti-Cuba Policy at the United Nations,” Dissident Voice, http://www.dissidentvoice.org, Accessed 11/16/2013The Fijian spokesperson expressed 'deep concern' for the 'unilaterally imposed' embargo which 'contravenes the fundamental norms of international law, international humanitarian law, the Charter of the United Nations' as well as 'the principles of the sovereign equality of States and of non-intervention and non-interference in each other's domestic affairs.' (Such references to violations of 'international law' were myriad throughout. While these assertions are true enough factually on the face of it and I suppose useful for propaganda purposes and exposing hypocrisies and double standards, their rather impotent repetition served to reinforce my conviction that, as far as the great imperial powers, ruling classes, families, and castes throughout history are concerned, domestic and international law — which may look mighty fine and worthwhile on paper — are primarily a question of power, the relationship of forces and counter-forces, and the political price one might pay for transgressing them in any concrete situation. In any case, domestic 'law' in the advanced capitalist 'democracies' is generally preserved for use against working people, oppressed nationalities, and the impoverished who fill up their prisons.

Soft Power Adv. – International Credibility Internals

The embargo is one area where the entire world condemns the U.S.Chandra Muzaffar, PhD. And President of the International Movement for a Just World (JUST), November, 13, 2013, “The Blockade Against Cuba: An Assault Upon Humanity's Conscience,” Counter Currents, http://www.countercurrents.org/muzaffar131113.htm, Accessed 11/17/2013There are few other issues in international politics on which the nations of the world have been so totally united over so many years. On 29 October 2013, for the 22nd consecutive year, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) called for an end to the economic, commercial and financial blockade imposed by the United States of America against Cuba. 188 states supported the Resolution, 2 voted against it, namely the US and Israel, while 3 (Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau) abstained.

The embargo is one of the last vestiges of Cold War ideology that carries international condemnationJake Offenhartz, Staff Writer, November 21, 2013, “(Past) time to end the Cuban embargo,” Michigan Daily, Accessed 11/21/2013, http://www.michigandaily.com/opinion/11jake-offenhartz-past-time-end-cuban-embargo22This justification, however, does not hold up within the context of overall U.S. foreign policy. Despite numerous accounts of human rights violations, the United States trades with Venezuela, Vietnam and China. Additionally, American citizens are permitted to travel anywhere else in the world, including Iran, Burma and North Korea. The fact that Cuba is singled out among these blatantly more threatening and repressive nations is clear proof that the embargo and travel restrictions are not based on logic but Cold War ideologies. A 1998 report from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency echoed this assertion, finding that, “Cuba does not pose a significant military threat to the U.S. or to other countries in the region.” The international community has been even more vocal in its opposition, condemning the embargo annually for 22 straight years, with the most recent UN General Assembly vote coming in at a lopsided 188-2, with only Israel joining the United States in support.

U.S. Economic Growth Adv. Ext. – Internal Links

The embargo costs the U.S. economy almost $5 billion a year and doesn’t affect Cuban policiesCésar Chelala, MD, PhD, November 4, 2013, “The Folly of the Embargo on Cuba,” The WIP, http://thewip.net/talk/2013/11/the_ folly_of_the_embargo_on_cu.html, Accessed 11/9/2013The embargo has gained the US universal condemnation without making a dent in the Castro brothers’ policies. Paradoxically, in absolute terms, the embargo now costs the United States far more than it costs Cuba. The Cuban Policy Foundation (CPF), a US nonprofit organization dedicated to the study of the benefits of expanding trade and people-to-people contact with Cuba, estimated that up to $4.84 billion are lost annually by the US because of the restrictions on exports to Cuba. The Cuban government estimates that the embargo costs Cuba $685 million annually.

Medical Access Adv.

The embargo on Cuba severely restricts access to medical equipmentJake Offenhartz, Staff Writer, November 21, 2013, “(Past) time to end the Cuban embargo,” Michigan Daily, Accessed 11/21/2013, http://www.michigandaily.com/opinion/11jake-offenhartz-past-time-end-cuban-embargo22Ignoring the ineffectual policy has had major implications for the social and economic rights of the Cuban people. Though certain restrictions on American exports have been eased in the past decade, access to medical technology and other necessities remains extremely limited within Cuba. In 1997, the American Association for World Health released a comprehensive report on the subject, finding that the embargo “contributed particularly to malnutrition affecting especially women and children, poor water quality, lack of access to medicines and medical supplies, and limited the exchange of medical and scientific information due to travel restrictions and currency regulations.”

Renewable Energy Adv.

Cuba has huge potential for renewable energy expansion, but initial investments are expensiveRadio Rebelde (Cuba), Staff Writer, November 8, 2013, “Cuba to Expand Use of Renewable Energy Sources,” Accessed 11/25/2013, http://www.radiorebelde.cu/english/news/cuba-to-expand-use-of-renewable-energy-sources-20131108/, Over fifty percent of Cuba’s energy bill goes to pay for water supply and this fact calls for a greater application of renewable energy sources, said the Chairman of the Cuban non-governmental Institution Cubasolar, Mr. Luis Bérriz. The longer we increase the use of renewable energy to replace traditional sources in this field, the further we will advance on the road to sustainable development, the expert said as cited by RHC. CUBASOLAR is one of the institutions that attended in Havana the just concluded Third National Workshop on Technological Promotion, which discussed ways to reduce the nation’s dependency on fossil fuels while taking advantage of available alternative sources. Cuba burns annually some eight million tons of oil, half of them imported, at a cost of some three billion dollars. This means, the expert said, that currently over 95 percent of Cuba’s electricity consumption depends on this contaminating source.He insisted, however, that this Caribbean nation may take advantage of the Sun, the wind, biomass, sea tides and other much more noble energy sources that are readily available to Cuba and more tuned in to the possibilities of the economy and to the protection of the Environment. The Cuban expert noted that even if initial investments might be expensive, its long term advantages are undeniable.

Solvency – The U.S. Should Increase Engagement

Cuba is reforming now for the purpose of engagement. The U.S. should move toward normalizationDavid Adams, Staff Writer, November 17, 2013, “Analysis - New climate of pragmatism prevails in U.S.-Cuba relations,” Reuters, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/17/uk-usa-cuba-relations-idUKBRE9AG06L20131117, Accessed 11/25/2013U.S. officials are closely watching as Cuba implements a series of free-market reforms to the Soviet-style economy. Cuba shows no signs of changing its one-party, communist-run political system, although it has relaxed travel restrictions, allowing dissidents to travel abroad. "Because of the economic reforms under way in Cuba the conditions are being put in place for a more normalized engagement with the U.S.," said Richard Feinberg, a senior fellow of the Washington-based Brookings Institution who briefed senior administration officials last week on a newly published study highlighting the role of a new middle class of emerging entrepreneurs. "I was given the impression that its basic analysis - that important changes were occurring in Cuba and that the U.S. should be more engaged - was widely shared and that some new initiatives would probably be forthcoming," he said.

GITMO – Return GITMO Solvency Advocate

The U.S. should take the first step with Cuba by returning GuantanamoJacob Brunell, Staff Writer, October 28, 2013, “Cuba: A Microcosm of American Foreign Policy Shortcomings,” The Diplomacist, http://diplomacist.org/articles/2013/10/27/cuba-as-a-microcosm-of-american-foreign-policy-shortcomings, Accessed 11/27/2013Being a partner in diplomacy means being willing to take the first step on occasion. I am optimistic that this is a policy that we are moving towards, evidenced by President Obama’s decision to place an unsolicited phone call to Iranian President Housan Rouhani last month to discuss potential areas of cooperation or agreement between the Persian state and the U.S. While this specific measure has not yet led to a substantive diplomatic breakthrough, it has certainly changed for the better the tone of the rhetoric between the two nations, and may yet herald further positive developments. A prudent first step that would serve both American and Cuban interests would be to close down Guantanamo Bay, returning it to Cuban control. Such an act of good faith would simultaneously put to bed an issue that has long nagged at America’s human rights record, and would engender a great deal of good will towards the U.S. by Cubans and the international community alike; a win-win for everyone.

Mexico

THA – Key to Mexican Economy

Implementing the THA is critical to Mexican oil modernization. That is a shot of adrenaline for the Mexican economyNelson Balido, managing principal at Balido and Associates, chair of the Border Commerce and Security Council, and former member of the Homeland Security Advisory Council, November 4, 2013, “Energy in Mexico – the next North American boom?,” BizNews, http://www.biznews.com.mx/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4707:energy-in-mexico--the-next-north-american-boom&catid=41:energia, Accessed 11/25/2013Our friends south of the border are poised to make their own dramatic moves in energy exploration, but they need the technical expertise of international oil and gas firms to make it happen. But such strategic partnerships need to be mutually beneficial. Oil firms aren’t going to make investments in Mexico unless they’re certain it will be worth their while and will get paid. In the U.S. Congress, the House has passed and sent to the Senate the Outer Continental Shelf Transboundary Hydrocarbon Agreements Authorization Act. If the bill becomes law, it would implement the Transboundary Hydrocarbons Agreement signed by the U.S. and Mexico last year, which establishes the framework for developing the oil and gas reserves that cross the maritime boundary between the two countries. It’s a critical component for the further modernization of Mexico’s energy sector and it gives U.S. energy firms a chance to further explore the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. Ex-Im bank had already put its money where its mouth is by authorizing over $1.5 billion in support of U.S. goods and services to Pemex. Mexico is on the cusp of giving its economy a major shot of adrenaline. By liberalizing its energy sector, the country can attract new investment, deliver cheaper and more reliable electricity to its citizens and firms manufacturing for export, and grow new jobs in an economy that has hit a rough patch. It’s the next step in shifting the Mexican economy back into high-gear and North America will we be the primary beneficiary. Let’s hope President Peña Nieto has the political touch to get it done.

THA – Solvency / Expands Development

Congress should pass the THA. This would access binational access to new oil and gas developmentsEric Farnsworth, Staff Writer, Summer 2013, “The Next Energy Superpower?,” Americas Quarterly, Accessed 11/25/2013, http://www.americasquarterly.org/the-next-energy-superpower In particular, the U.S. should quickly introduce and pass the U.S.-Mexico Transboundary Hydrocarbons Agreement that was agreed in 2012. This would help both nations develop projects in the transboundary region of the Gulf of Mexico by allowing PEMEX to enter into joint agreements with U.S. companies. The agreement would also provide the legal framework to encourage U.S. companies to enter into these partnerships and end the moratorium on developing oil and gas projects in the western Gulf of Mexico. A real political breakthrough will support a larger opening in the sector.

Renewables – Status Quo Lacks Investment

Mexico is behind the entire world in renewable energy production. New reforms will be cosmeticLizzie Wade, Staff Writer, November 12, 2013, “The Easy Energy Is Gone,” Slate, http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/ energy_around_the_world/2013/11/mexico_constitution_and_oil_drilling_will_pemex_be_privatized.html, Accessed 11/25/2013Mexico already lags behind the rest of the world in renewable energy, Rincón says, and an energy reform that ignores promising resources such as solar and wind won’t help it catch up. Although the government says renewables will eventually be part of the plan, the specifics are on hold, waiting for those elusive secondary laws. Ferrari and Rincón suspect they will be merely cosmetic.

China Crowd-Out / Taiwan Advantage

Now is a Key Time / Internal Link

Now is a Key time. Taiwan is hemorrhaging support and Gambia proves Chinese gains with small nations add upShannon Tiezzi, Staff Writer, November 19, 2013, “Why Taiwan’s Allies are Flocking to Beijing,” The Diplomat, Accessed 11/23/2013, http://thediplomat.com/2013/11/why-taiwans-allies-are-flocking-to-beijing/A week ago, Taiwan enjoyed formal diplomatic relations with 23 countries, largely concentrated in Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean. As of November 15, that number is down to 22, thanks to a surprise announcement by Gambian President Yahya Jammeh that his country would cut its diplomatic ties to Taiwan. As J. Michael Cole wrote elsewhere on The Diplomat, it’s unclear whether The Gambia will officially establish diplomatic relations with China, and what that would mean for the “diplomatic truce” between China and Taiwan. However, even without any prompting from Beijing, it would still be easy for Gambia to conclude that partnering with China would pay off—literally.

Latin American Relations Advantage

L.A. Terrorism Advancing Now

Hezbollah has strong ties in Latin America. They use connections in Venezuela and Mexico to spread terrorism, drugs, and human traffickingLuke Bencie, the Managing Director of Security Management International, LLC, Fall 2013, “The A-Team: Hezbollah In Latin America,” Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security International, Vol. 19 No. 3, http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/89750631/a-team-hezbollah-latin-america, Accessed 11/16/2013With a presence in an estimated forty countries on five different continents, Hezbollah is one of a small number of active terrorist groups that has a truly global reach. Unfortunately, it still comes as a surprise to many that Hezbollah has established such an extensive network in the Western Hemisphere. Their presence in Latin America goes as far back as the 1980s, when Hezbollah operatives began to take advantage of the weak governance in the "Tri-Border Region" at the intersection of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. The lawless territory allowed them to participate in a wide range of illicit activities including smuggling, extortion and narcotics trafficking. There is significant evidence to suggest Hezbollah's particularly strong financial ties to the Tri-Border region and the growing Lebanese diaspora communities in the region. It is suspected that the Tri-Border area is now the primary source of independent funding for Hezbollah, with an estimated $20 million a year being funneled from money laundering, drug and weapons smuggling, and the sale of counterfeit goods.In addition to the Tri-Border area, there is strong evidence of Hezbollah influence and presence in Colombia, Paraguay, Venezuela, and Mexico . Hezbollah has excelled at creating relationships of mutual accommodation with the criminal and terrorist groups operating in these regions including the drug cartels, Hamas and The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Already experts in smuggling and trafficking operations as a result of their illicit activities in West Africa, Hezbollah is now using its knowledge and expertise to contribute to the Latin American drug and criminal pipelines. These underground trade routes are spread throughout the northern tier of South America, Central America and Mexico. The pipelines are the lifeblood of the criminal enterprises that Hezbollah is becoming so deeply embedded with. They serve as the medium with which criminal and terrorist organizations are able to move products, money, weapons, personnel and goods from as far as the Middle East, all the way through Central and South America, and ultimately across our borders.

Growing Hezbollah influence in Latin America spreads anti-Americanism risking attack on the U.S.Luke Bencie, the Managing Director of Security Management International, LLC, Fall 2013, “The A-Team: Hezbollah In Latin America,” Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security International, Vol. 19 No. 3, http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/89750631/a-team-hezbollah-latin-america, Accessed 11/16/2013The relationships of mutual accommodation that Hezbollah has cultivated with other criminal and terrorist organizations in the region have begun to escalate past the traditional illicit activities of money laundering and smuggling operations. Hezbollah has begun to conduct training and recruiting operations throughout Central and South America. Reports based on law enforcement and intelligence sources claim that Hezbollah operatives have provided weapons and explosives training to organizations operating along the U.S. border. It is also suspected that Hezbollah is operating camps inside Venezuela to train local militants for possible attacks on American soil. Recruiting has likewise become a primary mission for Hezbollah in the Western Hemisphere, an objective made extremely successful given the large Lebanese diaspora communities in Latin America. Hezbollah operatives, using Iranian money, are

infiltrating or establishing radical mosques throughout Latin America. According to former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization of American States, Roger Noriega, this is allowing Hezbollah to spread its influence and advance its violent extremism right up to America's doorstep. The strong recruiting and indoctrination efforts of Hezbollah are creating thousands of supporters that contribute monetary and non-monetary resources to the organization. Furthermore, anti-American and anti-Israeli propaganda dispersed by Hezbollah and their supporters succeed in undermining the already precarious popularity of the United States government across Latin America's fragile democracies. This subsequently leads to greater political power for Hezbollah in the Tri-Border region and produces more fertile ground for terrorist cells to gain a foothold from which to launch operations.

Increasing Hezbollah influence in Latin America poses a direct threat to the U.S. Iran will push them to attack in return for fundingLuke Bencie, the Managing Director of Security Management International, LLC, Fall 2013, “The A-Team: Hezbollah In Latin America,” Journal of Counterterrorism and Homeland Security International, Vol. 19 No. 3, http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/89750631/a-team-hezbollah-latin-america, Accessed 11/16/2013The surge in more intense recruiting and training efforts has certainly brought the Hezbollah network in Latin America a step closer to presenting an operational threat to the United States. However, there are still many officials who believe that there is a key component missing to the threat: a lack of desire or intent on the part of Hezbollah to conduct terrorist activity within the United States. What is important to consider, however, is that while Hezbollah may not be interested or prepared for that, Iran, Hezbollah's longtime state-sponsor, very well might be. It is no secret that Iran provides Hezbollah with training, weapons, and explosives, as well as political, diplomatic, monetary, and organizational aid. It is estimated that Iran provides anywhere from $60 million to $100 million and maybe even up to $200 million in financial support annually. In exchange, Hezbollah acts as a proxy for Iran, specifically, of the Quds Force, the elite extraterritorial unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Quds Force often utilizes proxy militias to maintain plausible deniability in its activities and, according to the Defense Intelligence Agency, Hezbollah is the Quds Force's primary proxy of choice. It is this strong Iran-Hezbollah relationship that provides the teeth to the threat posed by a significant Hezbollah network in Latin America. Iran turned its sighs on Latin American in 2005, after the election of Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ahmadinejad began promoting an aggressive policy in Latin America with the strategic goal of forging partnerships with anti-American elements in the region. In 2012, Ahmadinejad visited Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Venezuela. The objective was to dilute U.S. power and influence in the Americas for the stated purpose of "bringing America to its knees." After successfully building close alliances with several governments in Latin America over the last decade, Iran has been able to extend moderate state cover and impunity for its proxy elements and covert activities. One of its closest alliances was with the Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez, before his death in March of 2013. According to former Ambassador Noriega, Chavez, a long time opponent of United States power and influence, welcomed the partnership with Iran and Hezbollah and provided political support, financing, and arms to Hezbollah. As noted earlier, Hezbollah is also allowed to operate training camps within Venezuela. This "official" support of like-minded Bolivian states has greatly increased Iran's capacity to carry out intelligence operations, train, and position their proxies to prepare the credible threat of attacks against the United States.

Latin American Clean Energy Adv.

Increasing investment in clean energy and renewables in Latin America would create a domino effect that transforms 77% of world energy use by 2050 to solve climate changeAlejandro Garcia, graduate student at the Elliott School of International Affairs in the Security Policy Studies program, November 25, 2013, “Latin America and the New Geopolitics of Climate Change,” International Affairs Review, http://www.iar-gwu.org/content/latin-america-and-new-geopolitics-climate-change, Accessed 11/25/2013As a starting point, states must deal with the energy sector, which accounts for two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions given that fossil fuels make up more than 80% of global energy consumption. With the United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and Venezuela among the world’s top 15 producers of oil, the Western Hemisphere can influence the way the entire world generates energy and thinks about energy sustainability and climate change. Of course, there is reasonable skepticism about a breakthrough in clean energy due to economic and political factors, yet as the ecological carrying capacity of the planet begins to corrode, states may begin to take risks. A green energy revolution could develop in one region and spread throughout the globe. Secretary Kerry implies that Latin America may be that region.Kerry stated that, “If we harness the power of the wind in Mexico and the biomass in Brazil, the sunshine in Chile and Peru, the natural gas in the United States and Argentina, then the enormous benefits for local economies, public health, and of course climate change mitigation could reach every corner of the Americas and beyond.” Analysts from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) also see Latin America as the “new frontier” for green energy investment. New investments in clean energy dropped 11 percent globally last year, but increased tremendously in Latin America . Clean energy investment in Latin America (excluding Brazil) in 2012 totaled$4.6 billion, a 127% increase from 2011. Brazil led the region in 2012 with$5.7 billion in clean energy. Mexico’s investment increased from $352 million in 2011 to $1.9 billion in 2012; Chile’s from $216 million to $840 million; and Peru’s from $239 million to $608 million. In 2012, 20 of Latin America’s 26 countries attracted new clean energy capital, and the total number of low-carbon energy policies in the region grew to 110 from 80 last year. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change illustrates that the technology exists for renewables to meet global energy demand. By 2050, about 77 percent of the world’s energy needs can be met by renewables with existing technologies. Adopting policies that encourage greater investment in clean energy technologies will not be easy, but they will provide an appropriate solution to dealing with climate change and securing the prosperity and physical safety of future generations.

Climate change causes extinction. Humans will drop dead because we can’t sweatChris Clarke, Staff Writer, August 27, 2013, “Will Climate Change Cause Human Extinction?,” KCET.org, Accessed 11/25/2013, http://www.kcet.org/news/rewire/climate-change/will-climate-change-drive-humans-extinct.htmlBut running through articles like Curry's and websites like McPherson's is a startling scientific claim that has merit: there's a chance that large parts of the world will get hot enough to kill humans outright. Climate change threatens to alter the way we live our lives in a whole lot of ways, from changing the frequency and severity of storms and droughts to causing crop failures to promoting increases in pest animals and diseases. Clever animals like us may well be able to come up with ways to mitigate such horrors. But as global temperature warms, some researchers have said that some places run the risk of

getting too hot and humid for humans to survive in for more than a few days. Humans, like other mammals, generate heat just by being alive, and we rely on our surroundings as sinks for that heat. Even if the air is considerably hotter than our body temperature, we can cool ourselves by sweating: water evaporating from our bodies takes a lot of heat with it. At 100 percent humidity, a temperature of 35°C -- 95°F -- proves fatal within days or hours to people in good health in ideal theoretical conditions -- as James Hansen puts it in a passage quoted by Curry, "even a person lying quietly naked in hurricane force winds would be unable to survive" such temperatures. If we can't shed our waste heat, our organs fail and death results. And that's for a healthy person trying to get as cool as possible while relaxing. People who aren't in top physical condition or who must continue to work can drop dead from less extreme conditions.

Latin American Clean Energy Adv. – Modelling Ext.

Climate change is a fact and will cause natural disasters that threaten international stability. Latin American can serve as a model for a new geopolitics that transforms energy useAlejandro Garcia, graduate student at the Elliott School of International Affairs in the Security Policy Studies program, November 25, 2013, “Latin America and the New Geopolitics of Climate Change,” International Affairs Review, http://www.iar-gwu.org/content/latin-america-and-new-geopolitics-climate-change, Accessed 11/25/2013The science is clear: climate change is happening and will have a dramatic impact on human security. Rising sea levels, severe droughts, and more frequent and intensified natural disasters threaten the stability of nations. Instead of thinking about what states may do to hinder each other's security, states must think about the physical environment as a potential threat. The new geopolitics will not focus on conquering the living spaces of other peoples, but on guarding the living space of the globe. This requires a modification of the energy landscape to effectively govern the environmental system and deal with the climate change challenge. Latin America can serve as a model.

Latin American Clean Energy Adv. – Climate Change Impact Extension

We are in the midst of the next great mass extinction. Human induced climate change is precipitating the same conditions prior to the last mass extinctionPeter Brannen, Science Journalist, August 17, 2013, “Headstone for an Apocalypse,” New York Times, Accessed 11/25/2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/17/opinion/headstone-for-an-apocalypse.html?_r=0Some scientists believe we are now in the midst of another great extinction, driven not by natural events but by the activities of man: hunting, habitat destruction, the introduction of invasive species and pollution, which has drastically altered the thin glaze of life-supporting chemistry that coats the earth. By some estimates, perhaps close to 30,000 species of plants and animals go extinct every year. Whole ecosystems, like coral reefs, which went virtually extinct in the end-Triassic extinction, are now facing worldwide collapse again. A World Bank report last fall warned that “present emission trends put the world plausibly on a path toward 4 degrees Celsius warming within the century.” The surface waters of the carbon-dioxide absorbing oceans have already become 30 percent more acidic since the start of the Industrial Revolution. “In terms of global warming and ocean acidification,” Professor Olsen said, the rate of change during the end-Triassic extinction “was comparable to what we’re doing today.”

Terrorism Advantages

The Risk of Terrorism is High / Al-Qaeda

Al-Qaeda is still strong and another attack is inevitablePress Trust of India (PTI), Staff Writer, November 20, 2013, “Terrorism continues to be a threat to US: White House,” First Post, http://www.firstpost.com/world/terrorism-continues-to-be-a-threat-to-us-white-house-1239327.html, Accessed 11/25/2013Even as the US has been successful to a large extent in defeating al Qaeda, its affiliates and adherents continue to pose serious threat to America , a top White House official has said. “Despite our many successes, the unfortunate truth is that there will always be another threat. Killing Osama bin Laden and degrading core al-Qaeda does not put an end to terrorism or our focus against it,” Lisa Monaco, the Assistant to US President, for Homeland Security and Counter terrorism said. “Terrorists will continue to attack our diplomatic facilities, our businesses, and our citizens, and we know al-Qaeda core and its affiliates, like AQAP, remain determined to attack the homeland,” she said in her remarks on ‘America’s Counter-Terrorism Strategy’ at the New York University School of Law yesterday.

Multilateral Cooperation is Key

The diffuse nature of contemporary terrorism requires strong multilateral cooperationCarlo Muñoz, Staff Writer, November 05, 2013, “Terrorist threat to US has 'metastasized' since 9/11 attacks,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/policy-strategy/189306-terrorist-threat-to-us-has-metaztizised-since-911-attacks, Accessed 11/25/2013The increasingly diffuse scope and nature of terrorist threats facing the United States since the Sept. 11 attacks will force Washington to depend on its international allies more than ever before. "The challenge of terrorism has evolved as it has metastasized since 9/11," Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said on Tuesday. While al Qaeda's core leadership has been bloodied by U.S. counterterrorism operations in the years after 9/11, its operational cells in Africa, the Mideast and elsewhere have grown in strength and lethality.

The new terrorist threat is decentralized and requires unprecedented multilateral cooperationCarlo Muñoz, Staff Writer, November 05, 2013, “Terrorist threat to US has 'metastasized' since 9/11 attacks,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/policy-strategy/189306-terrorist-threat-to-us-has-metaztizised-since-911-attacks, Accessed 11/25/2013While these cells remain scattered across the globe, "many share a common [goal] regardless of state-to-state differences or political ideologies," Hagel said during a keynote speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "This has required and will continue to demand unprecedented collaboration with partners and allies on counterterrorism efforts," according to the Pentagon chief. This unprecedented dependence on international allies in U.S. counterterrorism operations is being accelerated by massive, across-the-board budget cuts facing the Pentagon and intelligence community under sequestration. The pending loss of personnel, materiel and capabilities due to sequestration will force the United States to look to foreign militaries and intelligence agencies to pick up the slack.

***Affirmative Disadvantage & CP Ans.***

A2: China

Internal Links Answers – Not Zero Sum

US and Chinese influence in Latin America is not zero-sumGlobal Times, Staff Writer, November 13, 2013, “China's Latin America presence not a threat,” Accessed 11/16/2013, www.globaltimes.cn/content/824632.shtml The United States does not see China's increasing engagement in Latin America as a threat and the two countries' presence in the region is not a zero-sum game, a US official said in Beijing on Wednesday. Roberta Jacobson, Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs of the United States, made the remarks after she co-chaired the Sixth China-US Sub-Dialogue on Latin America, an annual consultation with the Chinese side to share views and policy priorities on Latin America and the Caribbean. "We see China's increasing engagement in this (western) hemisphere - in both trade relationship and investment relationship - as extremely positive," the US official told reporters. Jacobson said millions of people in Latin America had been lifted out of poverty over the last decade. Many people had also become part of the middle class. She said the robustness of the relationship with China was part of the reason for the economic improvement.

Chinese investment in Latin America is a win-win, not zero sumGlobal Times, Staff Writer, November 13, 2013, “China's Latin America presence not a threat,” Accessed 11/16/2013, www.globaltimes.cn/content/824632.shtml The cooperation between the United States and China in Latin America can be win-win-win, for all three, the official said. "It sounds perhaps a little bit, you know, overly positive," Jacobson said. "But so far, I don't see a situation in which the United States feels that it has lost and where we feel like China has won, because we don't see it is as a zero-sum (game)," she said. China and Latin America have increased pragmatic cooperation in recent years, delivering tangible benefits to both sides. With two-way trade reaching $261.2 billion in 2012, China has become the second largest trading partner of Latin America and the Caribbean, which witnessed the world's fastest growth in exports to China. By investing nearly 65 billion US dollars so far in Latin America and the Caribbean, China has helped create much-needed jobs in the region.

Cuba Embargo Link Turn

China supports the plan as a move to abide by UN resolutionsXinhua News, Staff Writer, October 30, 2013, “China urges US to terminate embargo against Cuba,” Global Times, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/821296.shtml#.UpVAUcQ86m4, Accessed 11/27/2013China on Tuesday urged the United States to terminate as soon as possible its economic, commercial and financial embargo against Cuba, which has caused "enormous pains" to the Cuban people. Wang Min, China's deputy permanent representative to the UN, made the remarks while addressing the UN General Assembly on a resolution calling for an end of the US embargo on Cuba. Wang said the General Assembly has adopted resolutions by an overwhelming majority for 21 consecutive years on the necessity of ending the US embargo against Cuba, "urging all countries to abide by the UN Charter and the norms of international law, repeal or invalidate any laws and measures which are of 'extraterritorial ' nature and infringe upon the sovereignty of another state and the legitimate rights and interests of the entities and individuals under the jurisdiction of that state, and which have an adverse impact on the freedom of trade and navigation."

Cuba Internal Link Answers

Gulf States are already displacing Chinese influence in CubaCarl Meacham, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Catherine Krege, intern scholar, and Jillian Rafferty, staff assistant, both with the CSIS Americas Program, provided research assistance, October 29, 2013, “Cuba: Finding its Place in the Global Market?,” Critical Questions (CSIS), http://csis.org/publication/cuba-finding-its-place-global-market, Accessed 11/7/2013And the makeup of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Cuba is changing, too. In the past, China and India have been the island’s most reliable sources of FDI, but recently, Gulf States appear to be expanding their role in Cuba’s economy. In particular, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have taken interest in Cuba, investing in tourism and funneling aid into development projects—and providing new fuel for Cuban growth despite the ongoing embargo. So, then, what’s the nature of this new and growing FDI, and what are the implications for the United States? Q1: What is the nature of Gulf States’ investments in Cuba? A1: Diplomatic relations between Gulf States and Cuba began deepening about 20 years ago. And, over the past decade or so, those relationships have increasingly been bolstered by aid and investment flows into Cuba.

No Link to Agriculture – No Land Grabs

Chinese investment in agriculture is low. Land grab claims are wrongMargaret Myers, director of the China and Latin America program at the Inter-American Dialogue, November 19, 2013, “China's Agricultural Engagement in Latin America,” http://www.chinaandlatinamerica.com/, Accessed 11/25/2013Although trade is booming, China’s agricultural investment in Latin America is relatively limited (especially in comparison to China’s investments in other sectors), and far less focused on “land grab” activity than the media tends to suggest. Dozens of Chinese land grabs have been documented in Latin America, but after extensive research, the Inter- American Dialogue can only confirm ten, most of which involve the purchase of exceedingly small quantities of land. As indicated in the literature on Chinese overseas agricultural investment, the first Chinese land purchases in Latin America took place in Cuba and Mexico in 1996 and 1998, respectively. Consistent with Deborah Brautigam’s analysis of the evolution of overseas agricultural investment, these early investments in the region were a form of foreign assistance. Specifically, they were intended to improve rice cultivation practices. In the 2000s, private, provincially managed and state-owned firms have sought out increasingly market-based investment opportunities, including joint ventures and other cooperation contracts. Land purchases also increased slightly in the 2000s. In 2005, private firm Pengxin Group purchased land in Santa Cruz, Bolivia for a soybean production zone, for example. Zhenjiang Fudi and Chongqing Grain Group are associated with land purchase deals in Brazil. And Great Wall wine producer, COFCO, purchased 350 hectares of Chilean land in 2010.

China No threat To U.S. in Latin America

U.S. officials aren’t concerned about China in Latin America. We recognize our neglect left a void Latin America had to fillRichard Basas, U of London MA 2003 LL.M., 2007, November 15, 2013, “China, the U.S. and Their Latin American Trade Policy,” Foreign Policy Blogs Network, http://foreignpolicyblogs.com, Accessed 11/16/2013Reports on the conference made clear the peaceful dialogue between the two investing nations into Latin America. While the U.S. had neglected Latin American trade, China needed copious amounts of natural resources to fuel its growing economy over the last few years. The trade relationship became stale between the US and its neighbors, and China became the key to global growth for many countries in the developing world. The lack of concern over China's growing influence in Latin America , especially with trade giant Brazil and U.S. adversary Venezuela, is likely not due to simple manufactured goods not displacing American high tech consumer good in Latin America. The U.S. would be hard pressed to criticize another country for investing in a region it has chosen to neglect post 2001. Latin Americans, who were the trade darlings of the first few months of President Bush's first term in office, likely expected a future move towards regional trade liberalization. With the eventual focus on the Middle East and China's boom coming in the same era, Latin America had to diverse its own trade towards anyone who would be interested in doing business.

A2: China Bad for LA Economies

Chinese trade and investment help insulate the region from economic downturnsRichard Basas, U of London MA 2003 LL.M., 2007, November 15, 2013, “China, the U.S. and Their Latin American Trade Policy,” Foreign Policy Blogs Network, http://foreignpolicyblogs.com, Accessed 11/16/2013Some countries in Latin America have been experiencing their own economic boom cycles since the drop in the U.S. economy in 2008. China's growth and their requirement for natural resources and agricultural products was a major factor in Latin American countries not succumbing to economic collapse during the last global recession. In the long term, Latin America is still stuck in the old model where it is dependent on boom and bust cycles related to commodity prices for the health of their economies. Along with traditional dangers, the investment of Chinese companies in infrastructure may only solidify commodity exports to the East, while bringing in low cost consumer goods and driving under many manufacturing companies in Latin America. China and Latin America complete for research and development as well as intellectual property while they seek to transform their economies into high-tech manufacturers.

A2: Consult China CP

Consultation is normal means and the U.S. just consulted China on Latin America and we praised them for investing in the regionRichard Basas, U of London MA 2003 LL.M., 2007, November 15, 2013, “China, the U.S. and Their Latin American Trade Policy,” Foreign Policy Blogs Network, http://foreignpolicyblogs.com, Accessed 11/16/2013China and the United States held their Sixth China-U.S. Sub-Dialogue on Latin America this past week discussing their future policies on Latin America. The annual consultation was created to demonstrate how cooperation and a reduction in misunderstandings could promote increased trade in the region by both parties as well as avoid possible conflicts of interest in the future. The consultation was extremely amicable, with the U.S. cochair praising investment in Latin America and China's contribution in the overall reduction of poverty levels in the region.

A2: Diplomatic Capital

Diplomatic Capital – U.S. Engagement Good

We should use our diplomatic capital to engage Latin AmericaThe Economist, Editors, November 23, 2013, “Another morning in America,” http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21590107-do-list-worlds-superpower-another-morning-america, Accessed 11/23/2013America should use the extra diplomatic capacity it will gain from not fighting wars to run several foreign policies at once. That is because each region requires its own style of diplomacy. The United States needs not only to walk and chew gum at the same time, it must also be able to tweet and phone friends. Europe has sometimes seemed a low priority for America, yet the old world is a useful amplifier of American power. It is rich and armed. It can help deal with Russia and the Middle East. It is a natural ally for the increasingly vital cross-border agenda of crime, disease and climate change. Instead of treating European leaders with disdain, America should take trouble over them and think of Europe’s recovery as a strategic aim for itself, too. Latin America is an opportunity wasted. The United States often sees its southern neighbours as a source of immigrants and cocaine, not foreign policy, but it should be trying harder with them, too. Most important is Brazil, potentially an invaluable ally; but it will not fall into Mr Obama’s lap. First he must overcome historical suspicions, aggravated recently by allegations of spying, and the inclinations of the governing Workers’ Party.

Economic engagement and diplomacy are essential to regaining U.S. leadershipMarco Rubio, junior senator from Florida, November 22, 2013, “America Leading the Way ,” National Review, Accessed 11/23/2013, http://www.nationalreview.com/article/364643/america-leading-way-sen-marco-rubioUnfortunately, our legacy is changing. The current administration has failed to show the leadership abroad that so many countries have come to depend on — and upon which our own security and prosperity depend. Instead of having a principled foreign policy, these days America often appears to lack a clear vision for our role in the world. We must correct our course, guided by clear strategic principles that reflect the realities of the world we live in today. As for the tools we use, we have many at our disposal. In most cases, the decisive use of diplomacy, foreign assistance, and economic power is the most effective way to further our interests and stop problems before they spiral into crises.

Diplomatic Capital Low Now

NSA disclosures undermines U.S. influence because they expose hypocrisyDeb Reichmann, Staff Writer, October 26, 2013, “NSA spying threatens to hamper US foreign policy,” Times of Israel, http://www.timesofisrael.com/nsa-spying-threatens-to-hamper-us-foreign-policy/, Accessed 11/17/2013To Henry Farrell and Martha Finnemore at George Washington University, damage from the NSA disclosures could “undermine Washington’s ability to act hypocritically and get away with it.” The danger in the disclosures “lies not in the new information that they reveal but in the documented confirmation they provide of what the United States is actually doing and why,” they wrote in Foreign Affairs. “When these deeds turn out to clash with the government’s public rhetoric, as they so often do, it becomes harder for US allies to overlook Washington’s covert behavior and easier for US adversaries to justify their own.”

U.S. diplomacy is in the gutter now globallyThe Economist, Editors, November 23, 2013, “Another morning in America,” http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21590107-do-list-worlds-superpower-another-morning-america, Accessed 11/23/2013Saudi Arabia has taken to bemoaning the Obama administration’s plans for the Middle East. Europeans are up in arms about spying. China is sneering at the dysfunction in Washington. Latin America feels alternately ignored and intruded upon. These are not easy times for American diplomats. Their country is smarting from the anxiety of decline, and each new controversy seems to plunge the barb a little deeper.

NSA disclosures have tanked diplomatic relationsDeb Reichmann, Staff Writer, October 26, 2013, “NSA spying threatens to hamper US foreign policy,” Times of Israel, http://www.timesofisrael.com/nsa-spying-threatens-to-hamper-us-foreign-policy/, Accessed 11/17/2013The disclosures not only raise the question: Where in the world isn’t the NSA? They also sparked debate about whether tapping the phones of allies is a step too far. The question might already be moot. The British ambassador to Lebanon, Tom Fletcher, tweeted this week: “I work on assumption that 6+ countries tap my phone. Increasingly rare that diplomats say anything sensitive on calls.” Diplomatic relations are built on trust. If America’s credibility is in question, the US will find it harder to maintain alliances, influence world opinion and maybe even seal trade deals.

Diplomatic Capital is not Finite / Uniqueness Answers

Kerry just reached out to Latin America by ending the Monroe DoctrineUPI News, Staff Writer, November 19, 2013, “Kerry: Era of Monroe Doctrine in Latin America is over,” Accessed 11/21/2013, http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2013/11/19/Kerry-Era-of-Monroe-Doctrine-in-Latin-America-is-over/UPI-46411384844400/Kerry told the audience a relationship between Washington and Latin America based on U.S. domination was obsolete and needed to be replaced by a recognition of equal partnership and shared responsibilities to advance common goals and secure common interests. "The relationship that we seek and that we have worked hard to foster is not about a United States declaration about how and when it will intervene in the affairs of other American states. It's about all of our countries viewing one another as equals, sharing responsibilities, cooperating on security issues, and adhering not to doctrine, but to the decisions that we make as partners to advance the values and the interests that we share," he said.

Diplomatic Capital – Kerry Proves Diplomacy is Ineffective

Kerry’s speech was hollow and failed to call out the most repressive governments in the regionAna Quintana, a research associate with the Heritage Foundation, November 19, 2013, “Heritage Researcher Denounces US Foreign Policy in Latin America,” The Canal, http://blog.panampost.com/fergus-hodgson/2013/11/19/heritage-researcher-denounces-end-of-monroe-doctrine/, Accessed 11/21/2013Not only are Secretary Kerry’s statements shortsighted and give the impression of weakness, they also serve to reward bad behavior. Kerry focused on only calling out Cuba as the last nondemocratic country in the Western Hemisphere and had the audacity to refer to the “Cubanization” of Venezuela simply as a weakening of democratic institutions. By failing to specifically call out the most flagrant violators of democracy, human rights, and economic freedom, Secretary Kerry is jeopardizing America’s role as the champion of democracy in the region and inadvertently legitimizing the Bolivarian Alliance. The regimes governing Cuba, Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Argentina should be publicly condemned for their assault on democracy.

U.S. claims to abandon the Monroe Doctrine are just blusteringZachary Keck, Staff Writer, November 21, 2013, “The US Renounces the Monroe Doctrine?,” The Diplomat, Accessed 11/21/2013, http://thediplomat.com/2013/11/the-us-renounces-the-monroe-doctrine/The truth of the matter is that the Obama administration is almost certainly not disavowing the spirit of the Monroe Doctrine. If a country like Russia or especially China were to try and station large numbers of troops in Central America, it’d likely have to go through the U.S. military first, as Moscow learned during the Cuban Missile Crisis. However, the Obama administration rightly calculates that such a possibility remains remote and, in any case, America’s true feelings on the matter can be communicated to leaders in Moscow or Beijing privately should the need arise. More importantly, the Obama administration understands the central role soft power plays in sustaining regional hegemony. Although America’s superior military power is what ultimately ensures its regional hegemonic status, this is an instrument that should only be used overtly as a last resort.

A2: Oil

Prices Low Now

The current Iran deal reduced global oil prices. Prospects for a long term deal will continue to drive down pricesAlastair Jamieson, Duncan Golestani, and Lubna Hussain, NBC News Staff Writers, November 25, 2013, “Oil prices fall, shares rise in wake of Iran nuclear deal,” NBC News, http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/25/21604662-oil-prices-fall-shares-rise-in-wake-of-iran-nuclear-deal?lite, Accessed 11/25/2013Global oil prices dropped and European shares rose in early trading Monday, as markets gave a cautious welcome to the weekend’s nuclear deal with Iran . The agreement, which would see the partial lifting of sanctions on Tehran in exchange for a temporary freeze on its nuclear program, buys time for world leaders seeking a deeper, longer-term deal. Brent crude, an international benchmark used to price oil used by many U.S. refineries, shed over $2 a barrel Monday to trade around $108.70. The possibility of a future deal that would allow Iran to restore full production will keep prices lower in the shorter-term, analysts believe .

The Iran deal guarantees progressively lower oil pricesAlastair Jamieson, Duncan Golestani, and Lubna Hussain, NBC News Staff Writers, November 25, 2013, “Oil prices fall, shares rise in wake of Iran nuclear deal,” NBC News, http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/25/21604662-oil-prices-fall-shares-rise-in-wake-of-iran-nuclear-deal?lite, Accessed 11/25/2013The newfound cooperation between Iran and the West eases tensions that pushed oil prices higher in recent years. The deal also raises the possibility that a more comprehensive agreement would eventually allow Iran to restore oil production to pre-sanctions levels. That could add 1 million barrels per day of oil to world markets — enough to meet the entire global growth in demand for 2014 projected by the International Energy Agency. Kevin Book, an analyst at ClearView Energy Partners in Washington, predicted the price of Brent crude could fall to $90 a barrel by the end of next year if talks yield a final agreement. That's 17 percent below Brent's level early Monday when it fell $2.35 to $108.70 a barrel.

Oil prices dropping now and will continue. Russia and the Middle East will be affected inevitablyAndreas Rinke, Staff Writer, October 31, 2013, “Global Oil Prices To Decline Due To U.S.-Led Shale Boom, German Agency Says,” Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/31/global-oil-prices-decline_n_4182048.html, Accessed 11/25/2013The U-S.-led shale boom will have a lasting impact on global energy prices and push crude oil prices down to $80 a barrel, according to an analysis by Germany's BND intelligence agency obtained by

Reuters on Thursday. The BND said the U.S. shale boom would have a greater impact on global markets than it predicted in a previous analysis earlier this year. "The effects from the unconventional production of oil and natural gas in the United States will be pronounced over the next 10 to 20 years," the report said. It added that it now expects global oil prices to sink substantially, which will cause considerable problems for gas and oil producers such as Russia and Libya and trigger changes in the Middle East.

World oil prices are dropping with new cooperation with Iran. This will massively expand their exportsSophia Yan and Virginia Harrison, Staff Writers, November 25, 2013, “Oil prices tumble after Iran nuclear deal,” CNN Money, http://money.cnn.com/2013/11/25/investing/oil-iran/, Accessed 11/25/2013Oil prices tumbled on Monday after a groundbreaking agreement aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program eased tensions in the region and raised the prospect of more oil exports from the country. The preliminary accord, which was struck between Iran and six world powers, offers the Middle East nation $7 billion in immediate relief from economic sanctions. The U.S. government estimates that Iran has lost about $80 billion in revenue as oil sales slumped by 60% since the start of 2012 as a result of the sanctions. Iran sits on about 9% of the world's proven oil reserves. But its crude oil output is languishing at 20-year lows, the International Energy Agency said in a recent report. The preliminary deal suspends certain sanctions on gold and precious metals, Iran's auto sector, and petrochemical exports, but won't allow Iran to increase oil sales above one million barrels per day for six months. Still, some analysts reckon Iranian exports could climb in the near term because sales have fallen short of that limit in recent months. And if the deal goes well, and sanctions are relaxed further, Iran could be pumping much more oil into world markets by the end of next year. "From a big picture perspective, the deal... opens up the possibility of at least one million barrels per day of Iranian crude returning to world markets by the fourth quarter of 2014," said ClearView Energy Partners analyst Kevin Book. Reduced political risk and the prospect of rising Iranian oil supplies weighed on energy prices in Monday trading. Brent crude for January delivery fell 1.6%, or $1.77, in London, to $109.3 per barrel. Light crude in New York lost $1.32 to $93.52 a barrel. Book said the impact of the Iranian deal on oil prices would have been greater were it not for the loss of most Libyan production in recent months. Oil exports from the north African state have dwindled due to ongoing political turmoil. World stock markets were also buoyed by the Iran deal as cheaper energy prices could give a much-needed boost to economic growth.

A2: Refining DA - Latin America is Not Key

Latin America is just part of the picture. U.S. fuel exports are expanding globallyJeff Rubin, Staff Writer, November 6, 2013, “The downside of higher U.S. energy exports,” Transition Voice, http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-11-06/the-downside-of-higher-u-s-energy-exports, Accessed 11/20/2013Refineries in the U.S. are shipping record amounts of gasoline around the world, exporting the fruits of the country’s shale revolution to some of the same countries that not long ago were relied upon for crude supply. Tankers full of gasoline and diesel fuel — made from shale oil pulled out of places such as North Dakota and Texas — are being shipped to the Middle East, South America (including Venezuela), Nigeria, and the rest of West Africa.

U.S. refineries are exporting all over the world. There is no reason Latin America is keyBen Lefebvre, Staff Writer, October 8, 2013, “U.S. Refiners Export More Fuel Than Ever,” Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304441404579123604287854862, Accessed 11/20/2013"The bottom line is U.S. refiners are pushing product everywhere," said Francisco Blanch, head of global commodity research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "They can. They have a lot to sell." That's in part because drivers in the U.S. are buying less gasoline, largely thanks to more energy-efficient automobiles and even though the price of gasoline has fallen over the past year to about $3.35 a gallon, according to AAA, down from $3.82 a year ago. "It's a happy confluence of events that our demand has dropped off just as crude oil supplies and demand for products has grown elsewhere," said Ed Hirs, an energy economist at the University of Houston. Exports to Asia have grown by a third this year, with greater demand coming not just from Japan—a traditional buyer of U.S. fuel—but also from China and India, which have been building up their own refining industries.

A2: Refining DA - Trade Deficit High Now

The trade deficit is growing now with exports dropping and imports risingMartin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, November 14, 2013, “US Trade Deficit Widens 8 Percent in September,” ABC News, http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-trade-deficit-widens-percent-september-20886517, Accessed 11/24/2013The U.S. trade deficit widened in September as imports increased to the highest level in 10 months while exports slipped. The wider gap suggests growth was somewhat slower over the summer than previously estimated. The deficit increased to $41.8 billion, up 8 percent from August, the Commerce Department said Thursday. It was the largest trade gap since May and marked the third straight month that the deficit has risen since hitting a four-year low in June. Exports, which hit a record high in June, slipped for the third straight month, dipping 0.2 percent to $188.9 billion. Sales of commercial aircraft and autos both declined. Imports rose 1.2 percent to $230.7 billion, the highest level since November. The deficit with China hit an all-time high of $30.5 billion.

The newest report shows that the trade deficit is high nowLucia Mutikani, Staff Writer, November 14, 2013, “U.S. trade, labor data underscore sluggish economy,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/14/us-usa-economy-idUSBRE9AD0RZ20131114, Accessed 11/24/2013The U.S. trade deficit widened in September as imports rose to their highest level in almost a year and exports fell for a third consecutive month, suggesting the third-quarter growth estimate will probably be lowered. Other data on Thursday painted a less upbeat picture of the labor market than had been suggested by last week's sturdy October payrolls report. First-time applications for jobless benefits fell last week, but the decline in claims for the week ended November 2 was smaller than previously reported. "The reports reveal a slightly weaker path than we expected for exports and claims levels, which has modestly downgraded the outlook for the economy," said Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics in Boulder, Colorado. The trade gap increased 8.0 percent to $41.8 billion, the largest since May, the Commerce Department said. That compared to economists' expectations for a $39.0 billion shortfall.

A2: Refining DA - Trade Deficit High Now (Currency Manipulation)

Currency manipulation displaces jobs and represses exportsDaniel J. Ikenson, director of the Cato Institute’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, November 8, 2013, “Trade Deficit Oped in The New York Times Is Heavy on Fallacy and Wrong on Economics,” The CATO Institute, Accessed 11/24/2013, http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/trade-deficit-oped-new-york-times-heavy-fallacy-wrong-economics, Therefore, when imports are higher than exports and the share of imports is expanding, i.e., when the goods trade deficit is growing, domestic manufactured products and manufacturing jobs are displaced. And, as explained in the previous section, currency manipulation has encouraged more rapid growth of U.S. imports and repressed U.S. exports to both currency manipulators and to all countries where the United States competes with currency manipulators (such as China, which is the United States’ most important competitor in total world trade).

Currency manipulation is the single biggest cause of trade deficitsRobert E. Scott, Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Research, Helene Jorgensen, Staff Writer, and Doug Hall, Director of the Economic Analysis and Research Network (EARN), February 7, 2013, “Reducing U.S. trade deficits will generate a manufacturing-based recovery for the United States and Ohio,” Economic Policy Institute, http://www.epi.org/publication/bp351-trade-deficit-currency-manipulation/, Accessed 11/24/2013Currency manipulation by China and other countries, such as Japan and Singapore, is the largest single cause of U.S. trade deficits. Currency manipulation artificially reduces currency values, which acts as a subsidy to all the exports of these countries. It also acts as a tax on U.S. exports—both exports to these countries as well as to third-country markets (i.e., countries where we compete with currency manipulators’ exports). China is the most important competitor for U.S. exporters in markets around the world. It is no coincidence that China is also the world’s foremost currency manipulator.

Despite growing exports, the role of China outstrips any reduction in the trade deficitAlain Sherter, Staff Writer, May 10, 2012, “How the U.S. trade gaps hurts the economy,” MoneyWatch, CBS News, Accessed 11/24/2013, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-the-us-trade-gaps-hurts-the-economy/Although exports by American companies to China reached record levels last year, the U.S. trade deficit with the People's Republic is on track to top last year's all-time high of $295.5 billion. What gives? Simple: The amount of goods and services China ships abroad still far surpasses its imports. Although U.S. exports to China grew more than fivefold over the last decade or so, Chinese exports to the U.S. nearly quadrupled. In short, our trade gap is growing, and not only with China (see table at bottom for a list of the top U.S. imports from China).

China will still maintain the trade deficit without currency reformsAlain Sherter, Staff Writer, May 10, 2012, “How the U.S. trade gaps hurts the economy,” MoneyWatch, CBS News, Accessed 11/24/2013, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-the-us-trade-gaps-hurts-the-economy/Is there a way to shrink the trade deficit? Yes, but not an easy one. It will require a shift in U.S. trade policy to encourage hiring at home and to promote exports. For its part, China must let the value of its currency appreciate and foster domestic personal consumption by allowing wages to rise. Such

fundamental changes, subject as usual to the complex politics and power relations that govern global trade flows, remain as uncertain as ever.

A2: Refining DA – Reducing Trade Deficit Not Key

Reducing the trade deficit accounts for only .3% of the economy. Slow exports mean other causes outweigh tradeMartin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, November 14, 2013, “US Trade Deficit Widens 8 Percent in September,” ABC News, http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-trade-deficit-widens-percent-september-20886517, Accessed 11/24/2013The overall economy grew at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the July-September quarter. An improving trade deficit contributed 0.3 percentage point to growth during that period. But Thursday's report shows that exports rose at a slower pace than the government estimated when it issued its report on third-quarter growth last week. That could wipe out trade's contribution to growth, economists say, and lead the government to reduce its estimate of third quarter growth to an annual rate of 2.5 percent.

There is no evidence that trade deficits undermine economic growthDaniel Griswold, director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, March 12, 2007, “Are Trade Deficits a Drag on U.S. Economic Growth?,” The CATO Institute’s Free Trade Bulletin, No. 27, http://www.cato.org/publications/free-trade-bulletin/are-trade-deficits-drag-us-economic-growth, Accessed 11/24/2013More plausibly, causation flows from economic growth to the trade balance. An expanding economy increases demand not only for domestic production but also for imports. It also promotes more domestic investment as businesses seek to meet rising demand and capitalize on new investment opportunities. Rising investment opportunities, in turn, attract foreign capital to the United States to fund investment over and above what can be financed through domestic savings alone. Those capital inflows are the flip side of the current account deficit: the greater the net inflows of capital from abroad, the greater the current account deficit needs to be to accommodate those inflows. Thus, when GDP growth accelerates, so does domestic investment, inflows of foreign capital, and the current account deficit. While a growing current account deficit is not the cause of faster GDP growth, it is often its handmaiden. Our simple comparison of the current account balance and GDP growth does not account for a host of other factors that can influence both growth and the trade balance. But at the very least the data fail to show any discernable negative effect on economic growth from a rising trade deficit. Absent any real evidence, the standard assumption that trade deficits are a drag on growth should be re-examined before it is repeated again uncritically.

A2: Refining DA – Trade Deficit is Good

History proves that a widening trade deficit promotes economic growthDaniel Griswold, director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, March 12, 2007, “Are Trade Deficits a Drag on U.S. Economic Growth?,” The CATO Institute’s Free Trade Bulletin, No. 27, http://www.cato.org/publications/free-trade-bulletin/are-trade-deficits-drag-us-economic-growth, Accessed 11/24/2013One glaring problem with the prevailing thesis on trade deficits and growth is that evidence from recent decades does not support it. In fact, the evidence more comfortably fits the alternative interpretation that an expanding economy promotes rising imports and an expanding current account deficit. An examination of annual changes in the current account balance compared to economic growth since 1980 shows that a “worsening” deficit is typically associated with faster economic growth, and an “improving” deficit with slower growth.

Their internal link is backwards. Rising trade deficits parallel economic expansionDaniel Griswold, director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, March 12, 2007, “Are Trade Deficits a Drag on U.S. Economic Growth?,” The CATO Institute’s Free Trade Bulletin, No. 27, http://www.cato.org/publications/free-trade-bulletin/are-trade-deficits-drag-us-economic-growth, Accessed 11/24/2013Belief that a growing trade deficit means slower growth rests on the enduring myth, perpetuated by the U.S. Commerce Department’s own language, that imports simply subtract from economic growth. The prevailing orthodoxy in public discussion about trade is that a surge in imports will depress growth because imports are assumed to largely displace domestic production. Although there is an appealing plausibility to the belief, the evidence since 1980 contradicts it. Applying the same test as above to changes in imports and GDP since 1980 shows that, contrary to popular wisdom, faster import growth has been associated with faster domestic economic growth. In years since 1980 in which imports of goods and services fell as a share of GDP from the previous year, economic growth averaged 2.1 percent. In years in which imports grew by up to 0.5 percent of GDP, growth averaged 3.3 percent. And in years in which imports surged by more than 0.5 percent of GDP, growth averaged 3.6 percent.9 The same economic expansion in the late 1990s that saw a rapid expansion of the trade deficit also saw a rapid rise in imports of goods and services. For all the same reasons, recessions tend to dampen demand for imports. During each of the three most recent recessions, imports as a share of GDP have dropped sharply. That simple fact alone should give protectionists pause. Their dream scenario of sharply declining imports is frequently accompanied by the economic nightmare of recession.

A2: Refining DA - U.S. Economic Downturn Now / UQ

Mild depression is now the “normal” state of the U.S. economy. Depression rules will apply for a long timePaul Krugman, Nobel Prize Winning Economist, November 18, 2013, “Depressed economy is the new normal in US?,” Economic Times, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/comments-analysis/depressed-economy-is-the-new-normal-in-us/articleshow/25978212.cms, Accessed 11/18/2013Again, the evidence suggests that we have become an economy whose normal state is one of mild depression, whose brief episodes of prosperity occur only thanks to bubbles and unsustainable borrowing. Why might this be happening? One answer could be slowing population growth. A growing population creates a demand for new houses, new office buildings, and so on; when growth slows, that demand drops off. America's working-age population rose rapidly in the 1960s and 1970s, as baby boomers grew up, and its workforce rose even faster, as women moved into the labor market. That's now all behind us. And you can see the effects: even at the height of the housing bubble, we weren't building nearly as many houses as in the 1970s. Another important factor may be persistent trade deficits, which emerged in the 1980s and since then have fluctuated but never gone away. Why does all of this matter? One answer is that central bankers need to stop talking about "exit strategies." Easy money should, and probably will, be with us for a very long time. This, in turn, means we can forget all those scare stories about government debt, which run along the lines of "It may not be a problem now, but just wait until interest rates rise." More broadly, if our economy has a persistent tendency toward depression, we're going to be living under the looking-glass rules of depression economics - in which virtue is vice and prudence is folly, in which attempts to save more (including attempts to reduce budget deficits) make everyone worse off - for a long time. I know that many people just hate this kind of talk. It offends their sense of rightness, indeed their sense of morality. Economics is supposed to be about making hard choices (at other peoples' expense, naturally). It's not supposed to be about persuading people to spend more. But as Summers said, the crisis "is not over until it is over" - and economic reality is what it is. And what that reality appears to be right now is one in which depression rules will apply for a very long time.

A2: Politics

A2: Obama’s Cuba Announcement / Pushing Now

Obama’s Cuba announcement was all hypeFernando Ravsberg, Staff Writer, November 14, 2013, “Obama on US Cuba Policy,” Havana Times, Accessed 11/17/2013, http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=100045This is the reason analysts at the Cuba Study Group in Washington are advising Obama to “take bolder steps that break isolation, empower Cuba’s growing entrepreneurial class, and do away with counterproductive sanctions and designations that only represent obstacles to greater change on the island.” A Cuban-American who met with Obama in Miami told me the president wants to make a change in the United States’ policy towards Cuba the legacy of his term in office, by approving measures such as the one that authorizes US citizens to travel to the island. The president’s message, however, is encrypted and difficult to decipher. He meets with the most hardline anti-Castro circles and proclaims the need for a change in US policy towards Cuba, but is careful to avoid mentioning what elements of this policy he seeks to change.

No Immigration Reform This Year

Immigration reform unlikely nowChris Cillizza, Staff Writer, November 25, 2013, “No, immigration reform isn’t happening this Congress,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/11/25/no-immigration-reform-isnt-happening-this-year/, Accessed 11/27/2013President Obama gave a speech Monday in San Francisco calling on Congress to act on immigration reform! House Speaker John Boehner rejected the idea that immigration reform was dead at a press conference late last week! Momentum! Spark! Eh, maybe not so much. Why? Because the underlying political realities in the vast majority of Republican-held congressional districts haven't changed a bit.