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The Nile Basin: Land ‘investments’ – Challenges for Peace and Development?
Ana Elisa CascãoWorkshop ‘Shared Water’
Stockholm, 3-4 December 2012
Nile: the water, the Basin, the countries and its population
NBI
, 201
2
Nile Basin Political Economy
Nile Basin: agricultural development (past and present)
Current Development
Food (In)Security
Agricultural Trade
Poverty and Food Crises
Main Nile agricultural
systems
Irrigation (medium and large): Egypt and Sudan
Rainfed mechanised farming: North Sudan
Rainfed subsistence agriculture (small holders):
Upstream countries
(Agro-)Pastoralism: Sudan, Ethiopia, South Sudan and
Uganda
Land Useand Pastoralism
Food (in)security
Agriculture Trade Balance
Inter-Basin Agriculture Trade
Trade: intra-regional and outside the Basin
Zeitoun, Allan and Mohieldeen, 2010
Trade: intra-regional and outside the Basin
Zeitoun, Allan and Mohieldeen, 2010
1970s(Ethiopia)
1990s:War-related food crises
2010/11:Horn of Africa
Nile Basin: Food Crises
ClimateConflictsPoliticsAidLand use and productivity...
Land-related Challenges for Development and Peace are not new
Nile Basin: agriculture development (potential/future)
Potential Agricutural
Development
Foreign Land Acquisitions
Land, Development
and Peace
Transboundary Dimension
Nile Agricultural Potential High agricultural potential
Land and water available
Agriculture and the NBI (Project: ‘Efficient Water Use for Agricultural Production’)
Lack of regional perspective vs. National-based developments
Nile Basin: Old ‘breadbasket’ phenomen
Land Acquisitions: not a new reality
2008: Global tipping point in the foreign land acquistions
Foreign land acquisitions in the Nile Basin: not a new phenomen
• Sudan, the breadbasket• Colonial times + 1970/80s• Commercial/mechanised agriculture• Market-oriented agriculture• Priority for food production?• 1980s: famine crisis in Sudan• Breadbasket dream failed
New land acquisitions in the Nile Basin
• Since 2008
• What is being produced? • Who are the ‘dealers’?• Political process
• Status of land leased/developed
• Main challenges
New land deals: what and who is involved?
SugarcaneBiofuels
Cotton
Foreign investors (private and public): Gulf countries, India, China, US and EU - and Egypt
‘National’ investors: agri-business companies, diaspora, etc
National governments: federal and regional level
Rice
Palm Oil Flowers
Coffee/Tea
Corn, wheat, alfafa,
groundnuts
Political process: advantages for ‘investors’
• Fertile land and and water available•Long-term land leases• Market liberalisation• Cheap labour• Low land rents• Tax exemptions• Support from the national governments• Policy framework for intensification of commercial agriculture
• No limits on water use•Often access to existing infrastructures• Possibility to build hydraulic infrastructure•Free access to the water resources (KEY)
ACCESS TO UNTAPPED WATER RESOURCES
Political process: Benefits for host countries
• Development of ‘unused’ productive land• Technology transfer• Infrastructure improvements• Employment• Macroeconomic investment/growth
Leased(millions of hectares of land)
50%Impacts?
Status of land leased/developed?
<10%
New foreign land acquisitions:main challenges
• Customary uses and rights
• Agriculture vs. Pastoralism
• Local food security
• Monoculture• Deforestation, soil
quality• Water flow regimes
• Local resource-based conflicts
• Transboundary impacts• Power balance
• Policy options: macro/micro
• National food security• Sustainbale
development
Socio-Economic
Environmental
Political/Security
Development
Land, development and peace
National development imperatives/sovereignty
Global development perspectives: international markets
Peace and security in host countries
Regional Peace and security
Missing link: regional approach
Nile Basin:Transboundary dimension of the new land deals
• Land and water nexus
• Water allocation for agriculture development – what, where and how?
• Positive: Awareness of agriculture potential – new opportunities for trade and new markets
• Negative: Old grievances about water for agriculture
Conclusion
• New land deals: tipping point in the Nile agricultural development?
• Large vs. Small-scale agriculture: benefits and challenges
• Food-crops vs. Cash-crops: benefits and challenges
• Peace and Security: local-national-regional conflict nexus
• Regional approach to agricultural development in the Nile Basin?
Thanks for your [email protected]