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Carver County Court ServicesRecidivism Data- Juvenile
• Data collected from CSTS, MNCIS, and S-cubed data 2004-2007
• Medium, high, and very high risk samples based on YLS/CMI data
• Medium (10-19), High (20-29), Very High (30+)
• Low risk data based only upon administrative case status
Low Risk Data
• CSTS queries based on “Low” supervision level (Administrative status)
• Data collected from CSTS, S-cubed, and MNCIS
• Time intervals up to 18 months
• Recidivism percentage, offense type, and offense level calculated
Recidivism (Percentage) N= 54
9.3%
22.2%
27.8%31.5%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
1
Time Frame
Per
cent
age 6 month
12 month
18 month
24 month
Recidivism (Offense Type) N=21
14
4
01
2
02468
10121416
1
Offense Type
Num
ber
of O
ffens
es DWI/Chemical Related
Other Traffic
Assault/CSC
Property
Other
Recidivism (Offense Level)
20
0 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
1
Offense Level
Num
ber
of O
ffen
ses
Misdemeanor
Gross Misdemeanor
Felony
Medium Risk Data
• Sample generated randomly produced offenders with risk scores of 10 through 19
• Recidivism data collected from CSTS, S-cubed and MNCIS
• Time intervals up to 18 months
• Recidivism percentage, offense type, and offense level calculated
Recidivism (Percentage)
13.0%
21.7%
47.8%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
1
Time Frame
Per
cent
age 6 month
12 month
18 month
Recidivism (Offense Type)
8
3
01
3
0
2
4
6
8
10
1
Offense Type
Num
ber
of O
ffens
es DWI/Chemical Related
Other Traffic
Assault/CSC
Property
Other
Recidivism (Offense Level)
15
0 002468
10121416
1
Offense Level
Num
ber
of O
ffens
es
Misdemeanor
Gross Misdemeanor
Felony
High Risk Data
• Random sample generated and produced offenders with risk scores from 20-29
• Data collected from CSTS, S-cubed and MNCIS
• Time intervals up to 18 months
• Recidivism percentage, offense type, and offense level calculated
Recidivism (Percentage) N=31
29.0%
38.7%
51.6%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
1
Time Frame
Per
cent
age 6 month
12 month
18 month
Recidivism (Offense Type) N=52
19
86
12
7
0
5
10
15
20
1
Offense Type
Num
ber
of O
ffens
es DWI/Chemical Related
Other Traffic
Assault/CSC
Property
Other
Recidivism (Offense Level)
38
6 8
05
10152025303540
1
Offense Level
Num
ber
of O
ffens
es
Misdemeanor
Gross Misdemeanor
Felony
Very High Risk DataVery High Risk Data
Random sample generated and Random sample generated and produced offenders with risk scores produced offenders with risk scores 30+30+
Data collected from CSTS, S-cubed Data collected from CSTS, S-cubed and MNCISand MNCIS
Time intervals up to 18 monthsTime intervals up to 18 months Recidivism percentage, offense type, Recidivism percentage, offense type,
and offense level calculated and offense level calculated
Recidivism (Percentage) N=19
38.1%
66.7%
78.9%
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%
1
Time Frame
Per
cent
age 6 month
12 month
18 month
Recidivism (Offense Type) N=46
18
6 5
13
4
0
5
10
15
20
1
Offense Type
Num
ber
of O
ffens
es
DWI/Chemical Related
Other Traffic
Assault/CSC
Property
Other
Recidivism (Offense Level) N=46
40
51
0
10
20
30
40
50
1
Offense Level
Num
ber
of O
ffens
es
Misdemeanor
Gross Misdemeanor
Felony
Combined DataCombined Data
• Data in total was analyzed according Data in total was analyzed according to trends (risk principle), offense to trends (risk principle), offense level, and offense typelevel, and offense type
The Risk PrincipleThe Risk Principle
As risk goes up, so does recidivismAs risk goes up, so does recidivism The most heavily researched The most heavily researched
principle of EBP (Latessa)principle of EBP (Latessa) Risk principle proven true with our Risk principle proven true with our
populationpopulation
6 month Recidivism Results By Risk
9.3%
29.0%
38.1%
13.0%
0.0%5.0%
10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%
Low Medium High VeryHigh
Risk Level
Per
cent
age
of
Rec
idiv
ism
Recidivism Trend
12 month Recidivism Results By Risk
38.7%
66.7%
21.7%
22.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Low Medium High Very High
Risk Level
Perc
enta
ge o
f Rec
idiv
ism
Recidivism Trend
18 month Recidivism Results by Risk
71.4%
51.6%
47.8%
27.8%
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%
Low Medium High Very High
Risk Level
Perc
enta
ge o
f Re
cidi
vism
Recidivism Trend
Recidivism by Offense Level (All risk levels combined)
85%
8%7%
Misd
Gsmd
Felony
Recidivism by Offense Type (All risk levels combined)
47%
10%9%
21%
13%DWI/Chemical Related
Other Traffic
Assault/CSC
Property
Other
Recidivism- General N=127
44.9%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
1
Time Frame
18 m
onth
reci
divi
sm
18 month recidivism
Summary of DataSummary of Data
Risk principle was proven trueRisk principle was proven true Most re-offenses were chemical-Most re-offenses were chemical-
related (mostly Underage related (mostly Underage Consumption)Consumption)
An overwhelming majority of re-An overwhelming majority of re-offenses were misdemeanorsoffenses were misdemeanors
Medium and higher risk offenders are Medium and higher risk offenders are more assaultive in terms of more assaultive in terms of reoffendingreoffending