Carroll County Public Schools

Enrollment Projections 2018-2019 to 2027-2028

DEFINITIONS

• Head Count Enrollment – Total number of students enrolled• Full Time Equivalent (FTE) Enrollment – Total number of

students based on a calculation showing how many students would be enrolled if they were all full time students. (Example: PreK students count as 0.5 FTE because they are AM only)

• Cohort Survival Ratio - The ratio of the number of students enrolled in a grade this year to the number of students that were in the earlier grade the previous year. (Example: The 2017 cohort survival ratio for 1st to 2nd grade is the number of 2017 second grade students divided by the number of first grade students in 2016.)

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METHODOLOGY

• Cohort Survival Methodology – typical demographic technique used to do enrollment projections

• Utilizes actual enrollments and actual (4 year average) cohort survival ratios to project future enrollments

• Three decisions. Everything else is just a calculation. – What kind of average cohort survival ratio to use? We use a 4 year

average– How many births to project? We are projecting births to increase

20 per year from 2017-2022. – How many Kindergarteners will attend each school? We use the

historic (4 year average) kindergarten distribution to project at the school level.

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Cohort Example

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Kindergarten Projections• Kindergarten projections (through 2021) are based on historic

births and the Birth to Kindergarten cohort survival ratio

• Kindergarten projections (after 2021) are based on projected births and the Birth to Kindergarten cohort survival ratio

• Projected births are based on historic average birth totals, County population projections, and MDP population and birth projections

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KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS

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2002* 1921 2007 1949 101.46% 6-42003* 1910 2008 1887 98.80% 107.31%2004* 1984 2009 1884 94.96%2005* 1949 2010 1849 94.87%2006* 1933 2011 1780 92.08% 4 Year Avg.2007* 1857 2012 1744 93.91% 105.57%2008* 1767 2013 1755 99.32%2009* 1619 2014 1671 103.21%2010* 1588 2015 1666 104.91% 10 Year Avg. 2011* 1577 2016 1670 105.90% 99.62%2012* 1600 2017 1732 108.25%2013* 1543 2018 1629 105.57%2014* 1577 2019 1665 105.57%2015* 1642 2020 1733 105.57%2016* 1760 2021 1858 105.57%2017* 1780 2022 1879 105.57%2018* 1800 2023 1900 105.57%2019* 1820 2024 1921 105.57%2020* 1840 2025 1942 105.57%2021* 1860 2026 1964 105.57%2022* 1880 2027 1985 105.57%

Births and Enrollments highlighted in gray are projected.

ACCURACY

Historic Accuracy

• One Year Projections (26 year average) = 0.33%

• Five Year Projections (22 year average) = 2.54%

• Ten Year Projections (17 year average) = 9.29%– Ten Year Projections (2001-2012) = 5.67%

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2007 – 2017 Projections vs. Actuals

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20000

22000

24000

26000

28000

30000

32000

34000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Projections Actual Enrollment Upper Limit (1% per year) Lower Limit (1% per year)

2012 – 2022 Projections vs. Actuals

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20000210002200023000240002500026000270002800029000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Projections Actual Enrollment Upper Limit (1% per year) Lower Limit (1% per year)

2017 ENROLLMENT & CURRENT PROJECTIONS

Total Enrollment• September 30, 2017 Enrollment was 25,290 students.

– An increase of 34 students from 2016.

• Enrollment was flat except for Special Schools.– Gateway (+11)– Carroll Springs (+19)– Post Secondary (+8)– Others (-4)

• Projections indicate total enrollment will be remain around 25,000 students for the majority of the next ten years.

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2016 & 2017 Actual Enrollments

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ACTUAL ENROLLMENTS DIFF.2016 2017 2016 2017PREK PREK 381 321 -60

K 1 1669 1718 491 2 1703 1748 452 3 1708 1742 343 4 1816 1867 514 5 1875 1908 335 6 1846 1877 316 7 1905 1962 577 8 2009 2012 38 9 2016 2104 889 10 2163 2065 -98

10 11 1990 2133 14311 12 2178 1892 -28612 K 1822 1732 -90

TOTAL 25081 25081 0

Actual and Projected Enrollment 1997 - 2027

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18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

Population Trends

• Births have been increasing the past three years• Net Migration has been negative five of the past nine

years• The County has averaged 278 permits per year over

the past ten years.• Housing units sold has increased the past six years,

and is equal to the numbers seen in 2003.

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18

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Carroll County Births, 1986 - 2016

Source: Maryland Department of Health & Mental Hygiene

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-1000-500

0500

1000150020002500300035004000

FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

Total Migration for Carroll County for Fiscal Years 2002 - 2015

Source: Maryland Department of Planning

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0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Carroll County Residential PermitsFiscal Years 1998 to 2017

Source: Carroll County Bureau of Permits

21

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Housing Units Sold (2002-2016)

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems

Elementary School Enrollment• September 30, 2017 Elementary Enrollment was 11,036

– An increase of 38 students

• All grades experienced growth except Kindergarten and PreK – Incoming Kindergarten class was 114 students less than outgoing

5th grade class– PreK totals were 60 kids lower this year

• Projections indicate enrollment will increase to 12,500 students in ten years.

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2016 & 2017 Elementary Enrollments

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ACTUAL ENROLLMENTSDIFF.

2016 2017 2016 2017

PREK PREK 381 321 -60

K 1 1669 1718 49

1 2 1703 1748 45

2 3 1708 1742 34

3 4 1816 1867 51

4 5 1875 1908 33

5 K 1846 1732 -114

10998 11036 38

24

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1400019

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

1820

1920

2020

2120

2220

2320

2420

2520

2620

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1997 - 2017 Historic and 2018 - 2027 Projected Elementary School Enrollment

Middle School Enrollment

• September 30, 2017 Middle Enrollment was 5,851– A decrease of 79 students

• Decrease is due to incoming 6th grade class being smaller than outgoing 8th grade class

• Projections indicate enrollments will decline slightly before returning to 5,800 at the end of the ten year period.

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2016 & 2017 Middle Enrollments

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ACTUAL ENROLLMENTSDIFF.

2016 2017 2016 2017

6 7 1905 1962 57

7 8 2009 2012 3

8 6 2016 1877 -139

TOTAL 5930 5851 -79

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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

1997 - 2017 Historic and 2018 - 2027 ProjectedMiddle School Enrollment

High School Enrollment

• September 30, 2017 High Enrollment was 8,194– An increase of 41 students

• Increase is due to incoming 9th grade class being larger than outgoing 12th grade class

• Projections indicate enrollments will decline to approximately 7,500 students at the end of the ten year period.

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2016 & 2017 High Enrollments

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ACTUAL ENROLLMENTSDIFF.

2016 2017 2016 2017

9 10 2163 2065 -98

10 11 1990 2133 143

11 12 2178 1892 -286

12 9 1822 2104 282

TOTAL 8153 8194 41

30

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1200019

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

1820

1920

2020

2120

2220

2320

2420

2520

2620

27

1997 - 2017 Historic and 2018 - 2027 Projected High School Enrollment

UTILIZATION

School Utilization

• Utilization percentage is calculated by dividing the enrollment of a school by the capacity of a school

• Elementary and High schools only use State Rated Capacity for this calculation

• Middle schools have a State Rated Capacity and a Functional Capacity calculation

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Elementary Capacity Changes• Elementary State Rated Capacities were reduced by a total of

572 seats. – Recognition of need for a Health classroom– Recognition of the need to provide classroom space for Resource

Teachers (Special Education, Reading, Math, Speech, Gifted & Talented, ESOL, etc.)

– Recognition of the growth in Special Education programs (Autism, BEST)

– Recognition of the need to provide classroom space for Prekindergarten

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ELEMENTARY SCHOOL OLD CAPACITY NEW CAPACITY DIFFERENCECarrolltowne 598 588 -10Ebb Valley 591 568 -23Eldersburg 570 568 -2Elmer Wolfe 548 546 -2Freedom 525 502 -23Hampstead 576 514 -62Linton Springs 731 705 -26Manchester 727 682 -45Mechanicsville 616 591 -25Mount Airy 598 552 -46Piney Ridge 571 548 -23Robert Moton 608 536 -72Runnymede 654 657 3Sandymount 527 524 -3Spring Garden 593 545 -48Taneytown 570 524 -46Westminster 593 568 -25William Winchester 591 545 -46Winfield 722 674 -48TOTAL 11,509 10,937 -572

Middle Capacity Changes• Middle State Rated Capacities were reduced by a total of 130

seats– Recognition of the need to provide classroom space for Special

Education Resource teachers– Recognition of the increase of Special Education programs (Autism)

• Middle Functional Capacities were reduced by a total of 185 seats. – Recognition of the need to provide classroom space for Health– Recognition of the need to provide classroom space for Special

Education Resource teachers– Recognition of the increase of Special Education programs (Autism)

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STATE RATED CAPACITY

MIDDLE SCHOOL OLD CAPACITY NEW CAPACITY DIFFERENCENorthwest 870 849 -21Oklahoma Road 891 870 -21Shiloh 891 815 -76Sykesville 828 806 -22Westminster East 848 869 21Westminster West 1146 1135 -11TOTAL 5,474 5,344 -130

FUNCTIONAL CAPACITY

MIDDLE SCHOOL OLD CAPACITY NEW CAPACITY DIFFERENCEOklahoma Road 845 795 -50Shiloh 845 725 -120Sykesville 745 720 -25Westminster West 1045 1055 10TOTAL 3,480 3,295 -185

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Utilization by Geographic Cluster• Elementary

– Southeast Area is above 100% from 2025-2027

• Middle– All areas are between 75% and 100%

• High– Northwest Area is below 75% from 2017-2027– Northeast Area is above 100% from 2021-2022

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Summary• Projections are most accurate in the first five years of the

projections• Total Enrollment is expected to remain around 25,000

students for the next five years• Total Utilization is currently 87%

– Elementary Utilization = 86%– Middle Utilization = 92%– High Utilization = 85%

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