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Carol Tomé CFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services Financial Overview 1 Discussion Overview Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing Market 2020 Financial Targets Capital Allocation 2

Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

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Page 1: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

December 6, 2017

Carol ToméCFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services

Financial Overview

1

Discussion Overview

Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance

Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing Market

2020 Financial Targets

Capital Allocation

2

Page 2: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance

Projecting Record Sales, Operating Margin and Earnings Per Share

FY 2017 Guidance

As of December 2017

Comp Sales Growth ~6.5%

Total Sales Growth ~6.3%

Operating Margin ~14.6%

Diluted EPS Growth ~14% to ~$7.36

3

Targets

Year

Established

Operating

MarginROIC Target Year

Year Met /

Exceeded

20091) ~10% ~15% 20xx 2012

2012 ~12% ~24% 2015 2014

2013 ~13% ~27% 2015 2015

2015 ~14.5% ~35% 2018 2017/2018F2)

Solid Record of Establishing andMeeting/Exceeding Financial Targets

1) Launched from Fiscal 2009 operating margin of 7.3% and ROIC of 10.7%

2) Preliminary per December 2017 Guidance. Will exceed operating margin target in 2017; achieve ROIC target in 2018

4

Page 3: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

Discussion Overview

Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance

Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing Market

2020 Financial Targets

Capital Allocation

5

Our View of the Economy

Real U.S. GDP is expected to grow, supported by improved job market and higher consumer spending

Drivers of home improvement related spending expected to trend positively and support economic growth

Anticipating favorable economic conditions in Canada & Mexico

6

Page 4: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

7

Real U.S. GDP is Expected to Grow, Making This the Longest Economic Recovery in History

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Hist.), Composite average from various sources (Est.)

Real U.S. GDP (Year Over Year Percentage Change)

2.5%

1.6%

2.2%

1.7%

2.6% 2.9%

1.5%

2.2% 2.4%

2.1% 2.1%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Average: 2.2%

Proposed Tax Reform

Tax Reform, if enacted could drive higher U.S. GDP growth Potential to lift U.S. GDP growth to 3+%

We believe concern over mortgage interest deductibilityis overblown ~5% of mortgages greater than $500,000

~22% of all filers claim mortgage interest deduction

No empirical evidence that tax deductibility impacts home ownership rate

If enacted, The Home Depot would have a significant, immediate benefit to tax expense and cash taxes

8

Page 5: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

Unemployment Back to Pre-Recession LevelsWith the Exception of HI, Consumers Now Spending

More on Experiences vs. Goods

Consumer Environment is Improving,and Customers are Spending Differently

4.0

%

4.7

% 5.8

%

6.0

%

5.5

%

5.1

%

4.6

%

4.6

% 5.8

%

9.3

%

9.6

%

8.9

%

8.1

%

7.4

%

6.2

%

5.3

%

4.9

%

4.1

%

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

Cu

rre

nt

Unemployment Rates

Source: Bureau of Labor and the Conference Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau. HI= Home Improvement

6.4% 6.3%

3.5%

2.3%

0.3%

(3.7%)(4.1%)

(5.1%)

HI Travel Lodging FoodService

Clothing DiscountApparel

SportingGoods

Dept.Stores

Consumer Spending YoY by Sector

Q3 R12 vs. LY

9

Drivers of Home Improvement Spend

Housing Turnover Age of Housing Stock

Increases DemandDrives Spending Both

Pre And Post Sale

Demands Ongoing Repairs

And Major Repairs

Impact on HI

Spend

Recent

Impact

Expected

Future Impact

Acceleration

Home Price

Appreciation

Supports Incremental

Investments

Continued Appreciation Stays At Current RateForward

View

Per Unit Spend

Increases

Household

Formation

10

Page 6: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

Household Formation Percentage of Young Adults Living at Home

Household Formation Growing

Source: US Census Bureau, Moody’s Analytics (Est.), Pew Research Center, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Internal analysis

1.9

1.3

0.9

1.2

1.6

1.41.3

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7E

201

8E

201

9E

202

0E

Change Ann. Avg. Households (MM) 60-year Avg. (MM)

32%

30%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

32%

34%

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7E

201

8E

201

9E

202

0E

Young Adults Living at Home Long-term Avg.

11

Home Prices in Many Metro Areas Have Yet to Fully Recover, Even on Nominal Basis

Source: Case-Shiller (Hist.), John Burns Real Estate Consulting (Est.)

(80%)

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Nominal)Best Performance

Dallas, TX

Denver, CO

Seattle, WA

Portland, OR

Charlotte, NC

Average Performance

Boston, MA

Atlanta, GA

National Index

San Francisco, CA

San Diego, CA

Los Angeles, CA

20-City Composite

Cleveland, OH

Minneapolis, MN

Tampa, FL

10-City Composite

Detroit, MI

Low Performance

New York, NY

Washington, DC

Chicago, IL

Miami, FL

Phoenix, AZ

Las Vegas, NV

Best Performers

Average Performers

Low Performers

12

Page 7: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

Average Spend per Large Home Improvement Project HELOC

“Wealth Effect” Driving Bigger Spend,and Capacity Remains

$ in Thousands

9.2

8.2

11.4

11%

20122006

-19%

2016

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017R12

-64%

HELOC Originations and

Cash-out Home Equity

77%

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Freddie Mac, Inside Mortgage Finance

13

$ in Billions

11.0 11.4

3.9

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

Mos. Supply (Existing Homes) Healthy Balance

Months of Supply Affordability

Inventory Constraints and High Affordability Should Drive Home Price Appreciation

Source: National Association of Realtors, Moody’s Economy.com

107.9

198.8

166.2

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7E

201

8E

201

9E

202

0E

Affordability Index Equilibrium Long-term Avg.

14

Page 8: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

Age of Housing Stock

Aging Housing Stock Creates AdditionalDemand for Projects

Home Age Spend per House

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting

1995 2005 2016 2020E

0-9 17% 15% 8% 6%

10-19 18% 15% 14% 13%

20-29 17% 16% 13% 13%

30-39 14% 15% 14% 14%

>40 33% 40% 51% 54%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

40+ yrs 30-39 yrs 20-29 yrs 10-19 yrs 0-9 yrs

$

$

$$

$$

$$$

15

Private Fixed Residential Investment (PFRI)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

A better measure of recovery than a predictor of future growth

16

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

19

50

19

52

19

54

19

56

19

58

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

Q2 2

015

Q4 2

015

Q2 2

016

Q4 2

016

Q2 2

017

Q3 2

017

PFRI as % of GDP (Real $) PFRI as % of GDP (Nominal $) 60-year Avg. (Real) 60-year Avg. (Nominal)

Page 9: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

Discussion Overview

Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance

Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing Market

2020 Financial Targets

Capital Allocation

17

Op Margin & Comp Sales Growth Labor Cost Leverage Productivity is our Virtuous Cycle

The Home Depot’s Financial Model Epitomizes Operating Leverage

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F

Sales per Labor Hour

10.4%

11.6%

12.6%

13.3%

14.2%14.6%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F

Op Margin

Comp

Sales

Growth

4.6% 6.8% 5.3% 5.6% 5.6% 6.5%~

~

18

Page 10: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

Looking Ahead, In a “Business As Usual” Environment Our Operating Margin Would Lift

Illustrative BAU Operating Margin Assuming ~4% CAGR

+100 bps

2020201920182017F

~14.6%

19

2015 2020T

We Plan to Invest Operating Margin Expansion in Support of Key Strategic Initiatives

Operating Margin Target 2018 – 2020 3 Year Investments1)

Our BAU Operating Margin will be reinvested… …As we nearly double our investment spend

$5.7B

Target

$11.1B

BAU

-20 bps

1) Investments: Capital and Expense, excludes incremental depreciation

~14.6%

+40 bps

20

Page 11: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

Strategic Investments for the Future

Note: Expenses exclude incremental depreciation

1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9

1.4

1.92.1

1.9

2020B 2020T2018T

3.3

3.8

4.1

2019T

1.9

2018B

1.9

2019B

BAU Capital & Expense

Investment Capital & Expense

BAU Investment

Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B

Strategic Investment 2018 – 2020 Investments

$ in Billions

BAU

Investment

Supply

Chain

IT /

Online

Stores5.0

0.6

1.8

0.8

2.9

Other

New Stores

0.8

0.6

Supply Chain

IT

Other

New Stores

0.2

1.7

Stores2.4

21

Sales Growth Key Drivers

2020 Sales Target

$100.6B

2017F 2020T

$119.8B

$114.7B

Sales CAGR ~ 4.5% – 6.0%

Base comp of ~4% plus sales from key initiatives

New Stores ~ 3 – 7 per Year

Fill voids but not a significant driver of growth

22

$ in Billions

Page 12: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

Gross Margin Rate Key Drivers

2020 Gross Margin Target

Driving Productivity Through Cost-Out Efforts

Reinvestment

Investing in One Home Depot Supply Chain

~33.6%

2020TOne Supply

Chain

Reinvestment2017F

~34.0%

Productivity

~(40) bps

23

Expense % of Sales Expense Growth Factor (EGF)1)

2020 Expense Leverage Target

1) Defined as YoY expense growth divided by YoY sales growth rate

Leverage a Function of Sales Growth and Investments

4.5% Comp EGF = 90%

6.0% Comp EGF = 75%

2017F

~19.4%

~20 – 80 bps of Leverage

2020T

~19.2%

~18.6%

24

Page 13: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

Operating Margin Key Drivers

2020 Operating Margin Target

Sales Growth

Productivity

~15.0%

2020T2017F

~14.6%

~14.4%

-20 to +40 bps

25

Discussion Overview

Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance

Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing Market

2020 Financial Targets

Capital Allocation

26

Page 14: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

Disciplined and Balanced Approach Won’t Change

Capital Allocation

$28.1B

$7.7B

2020T

35%

42%

23%

2020T

Cumulative Investments ~$35.4B

Share

Repurchases

~$12.5B

Dividends

~$14.7B

Capital

Expenditures

~$8.2B

Cumulative Cash Flow ~$37.4B

Targeting 5.4x

Inventory Turns

Net Earnings

Depreciation

Working Capital

and Other

Note: 2018 – 2020 Target; cash flow and cash return to shareholders based on low end of financial range

$ in Billions

27

Average Annual Spend ~$2.7 Billion or 2.5% of Sales

Average annual depreciation expense now expected to be ~$2.6 billion

Key Areas of Investment Include:

Capital Spending

Expected ROI

One Home Depot Supply Chain Productivity / Sales

Wayfinding for all U.S. Stores Customer Satisfaction

New Front End for Top 40 Market Stores Productivity

Merchandising Resets Sales

Technology Productivity

28

Page 15: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

Shareholder Return Principles

Dividend Principle

Targeting payout of ~55% of earnings. Intend to increase dividend every year

Return on Invested Capital Principle

Maintain high return on invested capital, benchmarking all uses of excess liquidity against value created for shareholders through repurchases

Adjusted debt/EBITDAR ratio not to exceed 2.0x

Share Repurchase Principle

After meeting the needs of the business, use excess liquidity to repurchase shares, as long as value creating

Note: Payout calculated on prior year earnings per share

29

Optimizing Invested Capital

$1.7$3.8

$25.5

$29.3

$27.2

2020T

$25.5

2017F

$17.8

$11.4

$29.2

2008

Equity Total Debt

Lowered Cost of Capital Superior ROIC

9.5%

2020T

~39.6%

2017F

~34.4%

2008

ROIC

Note: 2020T Equity based on midpoint of financial range

$ in Billions

~36.4%

30

Page 16: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

$1.2

$1.0

$1.8

$2.4

$1.3

$1.0 $1.1

$1.0

$2.3

$1.0

$3.0

$0.5

$1.0 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0

$1.6

$0.8

$1.0

Bond Maturities (Total LT Debt - $24.75B)1)

Bond Maturity / Debt Capacity

2017F 2020T

Projected Leverage

1.9x

1.7x

~$5.7 Billion

Capacity

1) As of October 2017

Debt Capacity (at 2.0x Adjusted Debt / EBITDAR Target)

Weighted Avg.

Maturity

14.1

Years

Weighted Avg.

Coupon3.7%

Ratings A/A2

$ in Billions

31

Announcing New $15 Billion Authorization Replacing Existing Authorization

Share Repurchases

2002 – 2017 YTD:Repurchased 1.3 billion shares for $73 billion or $54.22 per share

2017F:Targeting ~$2.1 billion for Q4 2017; $8.0 billion for Fiscal 2017

History

Looking Ahead

2020T:Targeting $12.5 billion over three years, funded with internally generated cash flow

$ in Billions

32

Page 17: Carol Tomé - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Investment Capital & Expense BAU Investment Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B Strategic Investment

One Home Depot

Enhancing the Customer Experience, Investingfor the Future, Creating Value

$ in Billions

Sales Operating Margin ROIC

2020T2017F2020T2017F 2017F 2020T

~14.6%

$100.6B

~34.4%

~$119.8B ~15.0% ~39.6%

~$114.7B

~14.4% ~36.4%

33