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December 6, 2017
Carol ToméCFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services
Financial Overview
1
Discussion Overview
Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance
Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing Market
2020 Financial Targets
Capital Allocation
2
Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance
Projecting Record Sales, Operating Margin and Earnings Per Share
FY 2017 Guidance
As of December 2017
Comp Sales Growth ~6.5%
Total Sales Growth ~6.3%
Operating Margin ~14.6%
Diluted EPS Growth ~14% to ~$7.36
3
Targets
Year
Established
Operating
MarginROIC Target Year
Year Met /
Exceeded
20091) ~10% ~15% 20xx 2012
2012 ~12% ~24% 2015 2014
2013 ~13% ~27% 2015 2015
2015 ~14.5% ~35% 2018 2017/2018F2)
Solid Record of Establishing andMeeting/Exceeding Financial Targets
1) Launched from Fiscal 2009 operating margin of 7.3% and ROIC of 10.7%
2) Preliminary per December 2017 Guidance. Will exceed operating margin target in 2017; achieve ROIC target in 2018
4
Discussion Overview
Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance
Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing Market
2020 Financial Targets
Capital Allocation
5
Our View of the Economy
Real U.S. GDP is expected to grow, supported by improved job market and higher consumer spending
Drivers of home improvement related spending expected to trend positively and support economic growth
Anticipating favorable economic conditions in Canada & Mexico
6
7
Real U.S. GDP is Expected to Grow, Making This the Longest Economic Recovery in History
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Hist.), Composite average from various sources (Est.)
Real U.S. GDP (Year Over Year Percentage Change)
2.5%
1.6%
2.2%
1.7%
2.6% 2.9%
1.5%
2.2% 2.4%
2.1% 2.1%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Average: 2.2%
Proposed Tax Reform
Tax Reform, if enacted could drive higher U.S. GDP growth Potential to lift U.S. GDP growth to 3+%
We believe concern over mortgage interest deductibilityis overblown ~5% of mortgages greater than $500,000
~22% of all filers claim mortgage interest deduction
No empirical evidence that tax deductibility impacts home ownership rate
If enacted, The Home Depot would have a significant, immediate benefit to tax expense and cash taxes
8
Unemployment Back to Pre-Recession LevelsWith the Exception of HI, Consumers Now Spending
More on Experiences vs. Goods
Consumer Environment is Improving,and Customers are Spending Differently
4.0
%
4.7
% 5.8
%
6.0
%
5.5
%
5.1
%
4.6
%
4.6
% 5.8
%
9.3
%
9.6
%
8.9
%
8.1
%
7.4
%
6.2
%
5.3
%
4.9
%
4.1
%
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
Cu
rre
nt
Unemployment Rates
Source: Bureau of Labor and the Conference Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau. HI= Home Improvement
6.4% 6.3%
3.5%
2.3%
0.3%
(3.7%)(4.1%)
(5.1%)
HI Travel Lodging FoodService
Clothing DiscountApparel
SportingGoods
Dept.Stores
Consumer Spending YoY by Sector
Q3 R12 vs. LY
9
Drivers of Home Improvement Spend
Housing Turnover Age of Housing Stock
Increases DemandDrives Spending Both
Pre And Post Sale
Demands Ongoing Repairs
And Major Repairs
Impact on HI
Spend
Recent
Impact
Expected
Future Impact
Acceleration
Home Price
Appreciation
Supports Incremental
Investments
Continued Appreciation Stays At Current RateForward
View
Per Unit Spend
Increases
Household
Formation
10
Household Formation Percentage of Young Adults Living at Home
Household Formation Growing
Source: US Census Bureau, Moody’s Analytics (Est.), Pew Research Center, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Internal analysis
1.9
1.3
0.9
1.2
1.6
1.41.3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7E
201
8E
201
9E
202
0E
Change Ann. Avg. Households (MM) 60-year Avg. (MM)
32%
30%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7E
201
8E
201
9E
202
0E
Young Adults Living at Home Long-term Avg.
11
Home Prices in Many Metro Areas Have Yet to Fully Recover, Even on Nominal Basis
Source: Case-Shiller (Hist.), John Burns Real Estate Consulting (Est.)
(80%)
(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Nominal)Best Performance
Dallas, TX
Denver, CO
Seattle, WA
Portland, OR
Charlotte, NC
Average Performance
Boston, MA
Atlanta, GA
National Index
San Francisco, CA
San Diego, CA
Los Angeles, CA
20-City Composite
Cleveland, OH
Minneapolis, MN
Tampa, FL
10-City Composite
Detroit, MI
Low Performance
New York, NY
Washington, DC
Chicago, IL
Miami, FL
Phoenix, AZ
Las Vegas, NV
Best Performers
Average Performers
Low Performers
12
Average Spend per Large Home Improvement Project HELOC
“Wealth Effect” Driving Bigger Spend,and Capacity Remains
$ in Thousands
9.2
8.2
11.4
11%
20122006
-19%
2016
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017R12
-64%
HELOC Originations and
Cash-out Home Equity
77%
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Freddie Mac, Inside Mortgage Finance
13
$ in Billions
11.0 11.4
3.9
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
Mos. Supply (Existing Homes) Healthy Balance
Months of Supply Affordability
Inventory Constraints and High Affordability Should Drive Home Price Appreciation
Source: National Association of Realtors, Moody’s Economy.com
107.9
198.8
166.2
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7E
201
8E
201
9E
202
0E
Affordability Index Equilibrium Long-term Avg.
14
Age of Housing Stock
Aging Housing Stock Creates AdditionalDemand for Projects
Home Age Spend per House
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting
1995 2005 2016 2020E
0-9 17% 15% 8% 6%
10-19 18% 15% 14% 13%
20-29 17% 16% 13% 13%
30-39 14% 15% 14% 14%
>40 33% 40% 51% 54%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
40+ yrs 30-39 yrs 20-29 yrs 10-19 yrs 0-9 yrs
$
$
$$
$$
$$$
15
Private Fixed Residential Investment (PFRI)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
A better measure of recovery than a predictor of future growth
16
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
19
50
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
Q2 2
015
Q4 2
015
Q2 2
016
Q4 2
016
Q2 2
017
Q3 2
017
PFRI as % of GDP (Real $) PFRI as % of GDP (Nominal $) 60-year Avg. (Real) 60-year Avg. (Nominal)
Discussion Overview
Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance
Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing Market
2020 Financial Targets
Capital Allocation
17
Op Margin & Comp Sales Growth Labor Cost Leverage Productivity is our Virtuous Cycle
The Home Depot’s Financial Model Epitomizes Operating Leverage
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F
Sales per Labor Hour
10.4%
11.6%
12.6%
13.3%
14.2%14.6%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F
Op Margin
Comp
Sales
Growth
4.6% 6.8% 5.3% 5.6% 5.6% 6.5%~
~
18
Looking Ahead, In a “Business As Usual” Environment Our Operating Margin Would Lift
Illustrative BAU Operating Margin Assuming ~4% CAGR
+100 bps
2020201920182017F
~14.6%
19
2015 2020T
We Plan to Invest Operating Margin Expansion in Support of Key Strategic Initiatives
Operating Margin Target 2018 – 2020 3 Year Investments1)
Our BAU Operating Margin will be reinvested… …As we nearly double our investment spend
$5.7B
Target
$11.1B
BAU
-20 bps
1) Investments: Capital and Expense, excludes incremental depreciation
~14.6%
+40 bps
20
Strategic Investments for the Future
Note: Expenses exclude incremental depreciation
1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
1.4
1.92.1
1.9
2020B 2020T2018T
3.3
3.8
4.1
2019T
1.9
2018B
1.9
2019B
BAU Capital & Expense
Investment Capital & Expense
BAU Investment
Total 3 Year BAU: $5.7B Total 3 Year Investment: $11.1B
Strategic Investment 2018 – 2020 Investments
$ in Billions
BAU
Investment
Supply
Chain
IT /
Online
Stores5.0
0.6
1.8
0.8
2.9
Other
New Stores
0.8
0.6
Supply Chain
IT
Other
New Stores
0.2
1.7
Stores2.4
21
Sales Growth Key Drivers
2020 Sales Target
$100.6B
2017F 2020T
$119.8B
$114.7B
Sales CAGR ~ 4.5% – 6.0%
Base comp of ~4% plus sales from key initiatives
New Stores ~ 3 – 7 per Year
Fill voids but not a significant driver of growth
22
$ in Billions
Gross Margin Rate Key Drivers
2020 Gross Margin Target
Driving Productivity Through Cost-Out Efforts
Reinvestment
Investing in One Home Depot Supply Chain
~33.6%
2020TOne Supply
Chain
Reinvestment2017F
~34.0%
Productivity
~(40) bps
23
Expense % of Sales Expense Growth Factor (EGF)1)
2020 Expense Leverage Target
1) Defined as YoY expense growth divided by YoY sales growth rate
Leverage a Function of Sales Growth and Investments
4.5% Comp EGF = 90%
6.0% Comp EGF = 75%
2017F
~19.4%
~20 – 80 bps of Leverage
2020T
~19.2%
~18.6%
24
Operating Margin Key Drivers
2020 Operating Margin Target
Sales Growth
Productivity
~15.0%
2020T2017F
~14.6%
~14.4%
-20 to +40 bps
25
Discussion Overview
Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance
Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing Market
2020 Financial Targets
Capital Allocation
26
Disciplined and Balanced Approach Won’t Change
Capital Allocation
$28.1B
$7.7B
2020T
35%
42%
23%
2020T
Cumulative Investments ~$35.4B
Share
Repurchases
~$12.5B
Dividends
~$14.7B
Capital
Expenditures
~$8.2B
Cumulative Cash Flow ~$37.4B
Targeting 5.4x
Inventory Turns
Net Earnings
Depreciation
Working Capital
and Other
Note: 2018 – 2020 Target; cash flow and cash return to shareholders based on low end of financial range
$ in Billions
27
Average Annual Spend ~$2.7 Billion or 2.5% of Sales
Average annual depreciation expense now expected to be ~$2.6 billion
Key Areas of Investment Include:
Capital Spending
Expected ROI
One Home Depot Supply Chain Productivity / Sales
Wayfinding for all U.S. Stores Customer Satisfaction
New Front End for Top 40 Market Stores Productivity
Merchandising Resets Sales
Technology Productivity
28
Shareholder Return Principles
Dividend Principle
Targeting payout of ~55% of earnings. Intend to increase dividend every year
Return on Invested Capital Principle
Maintain high return on invested capital, benchmarking all uses of excess liquidity against value created for shareholders through repurchases
Adjusted debt/EBITDAR ratio not to exceed 2.0x
Share Repurchase Principle
After meeting the needs of the business, use excess liquidity to repurchase shares, as long as value creating
Note: Payout calculated on prior year earnings per share
29
Optimizing Invested Capital
$1.7$3.8
$25.5
$29.3
$27.2
2020T
$25.5
2017F
$17.8
$11.4
$29.2
2008
Equity Total Debt
Lowered Cost of Capital Superior ROIC
9.5%
2020T
~39.6%
2017F
~34.4%
2008
ROIC
Note: 2020T Equity based on midpoint of financial range
$ in Billions
~36.4%
30
$1.2
$1.0
$1.8
$2.4
$1.3
$1.0 $1.1
$1.0
$2.3
$1.0
$3.0
$0.5
$1.0 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0
$1.6
$0.8
$1.0
Bond Maturities (Total LT Debt - $24.75B)1)
Bond Maturity / Debt Capacity
2017F 2020T
Projected Leverage
1.9x
1.7x
~$5.7 Billion
Capacity
1) As of October 2017
Debt Capacity (at 2.0x Adjusted Debt / EBITDAR Target)
Weighted Avg.
Maturity
14.1
Years
Weighted Avg.
Coupon3.7%
Ratings A/A2
$ in Billions
31
Announcing New $15 Billion Authorization Replacing Existing Authorization
Share Repurchases
2002 – 2017 YTD:Repurchased 1.3 billion shares for $73 billion or $54.22 per share
2017F:Targeting ~$2.1 billion for Q4 2017; $8.0 billion for Fiscal 2017
History
Looking Ahead
2020T:Targeting $12.5 billion over three years, funded with internally generated cash flow
$ in Billions
32
One Home Depot
Enhancing the Customer Experience, Investingfor the Future, Creating Value
$ in Billions
Sales Operating Margin ROIC
2020T2017F2020T2017F 2017F 2020T
~14.6%
$100.6B
~34.4%
~$119.8B ~15.0% ~39.6%
~$114.7B
~14.4% ~36.4%
33