Career prospects for academics in Australian universities

Higher Education 14 (1985) 497 512 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., Amsterdam - Printed in the Netherlands

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CAREER PROSPECTS FOR ACADEMICS IN AUSTRALIAN UNIVERSITIES

RAY OVER Department of Psychology, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia 3083

ABSTRACT

Career prospects within Australian universities changed adversely following an abrupt end to expansion in the university system after two decades of marked growth. Few recent or future graduates can expect to gain academic positions. The present underrepresentation of women seems likely to be perpetuated. Many academics now holding tenure will not experience the same level of career advancement as their counterparts did a generation earlier. With a shift in the age distribution of academics over the next fifteen years, the Australian universities may be faced with problems of obsolescence and rigidity. Consideration is given to policy and organizational changes that could minimize some of these problems. However, there is no overall strategy that will simultaneously maintain tenure at the existing level, produce a steady-state age distribution of academics, allow even a moderate proportion of recent graduates to become academics, improve career prospects for existing academics, and increase the representation of women. One or more of these objectives can be achieved, but only at the expense of other objectives.

Introduction

Staffing levels in universities in Europe and North America (see Kidd, 1981) as well as Australia reached a peak in the 1970s following some fifteen years of unprecedented growth [1]. In Australia the number of universities increased from nine in 1956 to thirteen by 1966, to nineteen by 1976, while enrolments rose from 34,406 (1956), to 91,291 (1966), to 153,465 (1976). There were 2,295 academic staff in Australian universities in 1956, 7,275 in 1966, and 11,501 in 1976. Over the next seven years there was a slight increase in enrolments but a drop in the level of staffing in response to what was, in real terms, a reduction in funding to universities. Across the nineteen universities, enrolments in 1983 totalled 168,639, while academic staff numbered 10,250. The recent recommen- dation from the Universities Council that the universities expand at an annual

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rate of 3 percent up to 1990 has not been accepted by the Australian Goverment. Although some expansion in the university system can be anticipated over the next decade, the rate of growth will undoubtedly be modest.

The end to growth in the Australian universities after a period of marked expansion has had major effect on the career prospects of academics. The labour market at the time of university expansion was such that most recruits to the academic profession were relatively recent graduates. The low rate at which senior appointments fall vacant through death, resignation, or retirement will severely limit the career prospects of those who took up lectureships in the 1970s. Further, a whole generation of graduates will lack any opportunity to work in universities. Women will be particulary disadvantaged. While relatively few women gained jobs during the period of marked university expansion, many women now hold qualifications that are appropriate for an academic appointment. In a recent policy discussion paper, the Australian Government declared a commitment to affirmative action in universities. The manner in which this policy is to be implemented is discussed later.

The aim of this article is not only to identify consequences of the shift from expansion to no growth within the Australian university system, but to consider implications of interventions that might alleviate some of the problems. Atten- tion will be given to the current state of the academic labour market, barriers to entry to the academic profession, factors affecting the career development of those at present employed as academics, and the representation of women in the university system. It will be argued that there is no overall strategy that will simultaneously maintain tenure to age 65, produce a steady-state age distribution of academics, allow even a moderate proportion of recent graduates to gain university appointments, improve career prospects for existing academic staff, and increase the representation of women in academic posts. One or more of these objectives can be achieved, but only at the expense of other objectives. The costs and benefits of several types of intervention are discussed later.

The End to University Expansion

In contrast to the growth experienced in the Australian university system in the 1960s and early 1970s, the 1980s and probably even the 1990s will be a period without much growth (Harman et al., 1980). After having increased almost five-fold over the preceding 25 years, student enrolments rose from 162,484 in 1980 only to 168,639 in 1983. Since there was a drop in the number of full-time academic staff from 10,614 in 1980 to 10,250 in 1983, the ratio of students to academics has increased. The Commonwealth Tertiary Education Committee projected an annual growth in enrolments of 2 to 3 percent up to 1990, but the level of funding to Australian universities has not so far been increased in real terms.

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As is noted later, the end to growth has affected the career prospects of many academics already in the system as well as new graduates. Not only are few new jobs likely to be created in Australian universities, but there is a low rate of turnover in positions that are held with tenure. Across all Australian universities fewer than 4 percent of tenured appointments were vacated in 1983 through death, retirement, or resignation. The turnover rate would change if tenure or retirement policies are modified. However, the age structure of Australian academics is such that under present conditions of employment the turnover is likely to remain at a low rate until the 1990s (see Santow and Bracher, 1983). Academics were recruited during the period of university expansion primarily from recent graduates. In 1982 the median age of professors was 52, readers and associate professors 48, senior lecturers 43, and lecturers 37. Expressed in different terms, by the year 2002, 21 percent of all academics who in 1982 were at the level of professor, 32 percent of readers or associate professors, 58 percent of senior lecturers, and 84 percent of lecturers will still not have reached the present retirement age (65 years). In contrast, a very high rate of turnover in positions can be expected in the first decade of next century.

Although some positions are held on fixed term contracts, in 1982 almost all professors, readers, associate professors, and senior lecturers held tenure, as did three-quarters of all lecturers. With the end to university growth, there has been limited possibility of movement between universities. Career advancement is therefore achieved primarily through promotion, but competition is now greater than it was in the past. In 1982, 55 percent of lecturers and 62 percent of senior lecturers were at the top of their respective salary scales. With time there will be an increasing squeeze, since as a result of budgetary pressure the proportion of jobs held at the levels of professor, reader, or associate professor is not increasing.

The universities expanded at a time when postgraduate training was not well established in Australia. There thus was extensive recruitment from overseas (Saha and Klovedahl, 1979). Gale (1980) reported that fewer than two- thirds of all academics with tenured positions in Australian universities in 1977 had completed their first degree in Australia. In 1980, 17 percent of all tenured jobs went to academics who were not Australian citizens or already in Australia, but by 1983 this value had dropped to l 1 percent. Those appointed to university positions have been increasingly likely to hold PhD qualifications. As noted later, women hold relatively few tenured appointments, but they are now represented in slightly larger numbers than they were previously.

The concern in the following sections is with the impact of the end to university growth on the career prospects of academics. Graduates from more recent cohorts are much less likely to be able to enter the academic profession than were their counterparts of a generation earlier. Women have been particularly adversely affected, since they are now qualified and available for appoint-

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ment in much larger numbers than they were in the 1960s or the early 1970s. The status of women in Australian universities is discussed in detail later. The career development of more recently appointed men as well as women will be adversely affected, since promot ion is now highly competitive. Not only will there be barriers to individual advancement, but the university system as a whole may be subject to obsolescence, rigidity, and inflexibility as the age distribution of academics shifts. The likely consequences of recent changes in the Australian university system are discussed in more detail in the sections that follow.

Entry to an Academic Career

Although in most disciplines a postgraduate qualification, and particularly a PhD degree, is virtually a requirement for an academic appointment, it is no longer a sufficient qualification. When growth in the university system came to an end, the pool of graduates qualified for academic positions had expanded greatly. Table I shows the number of doctoral degrees awarded in different disciplines by Australian universities between 1959 and 1979, together with the distribution of PhD enrolments in 1982. Several trends can be noted. First, slightly more than half of PhD degrees awarded by Australian universities have

TABLE ]

Number of PhD Degrees Awarded by Australian Universities, 1959 1979, and PhD Enrolments in 1982

Discipline Degrees Awarded Enrolments (1982)

1959 1969 1979

Humanities 18 50 96 1070 Fine Arts 0 0 5 80 Social/Behavioural Sciences 12 11 70 670 Law 0 3 6 50 Education 0 5 32 490 Economics 1 5 38 420 Medicine 21 53 79 790 Dentistry 5 4 4 30 Natural Sciences 78 303 356 2360 Engineering 10 50 87 590 Architecture 0 2 4 100 Agriculture 5 35 72 300 Veterinary Science 1 12 20 90 Total 151 533 859 7040

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been in the natural sciences. This disciplinary grouping still dominates postgraduate research enrolments, but not to the same extent as during the 1960s. Second, only over the last decade has there been a sharp rise in output in the social and behavioural sciences, education, economics, and engineering. Rela- tively few PhD degrees have ever been awarded in law, dentistry, architecture, and veterinary science. Third, the number of PhD degrees awarded annually across all Australian universities peaked at 800 to 900 during the 1970s. Fourth, there has been a shift in the sex ratio of PhD graduates. Women gained 5 percent of all PhD degrees awarded in 1968, 15 percent in 1978, and 22 percent in 1982. Some of the implications of this shift are discussed later.

Over (198 la) estimated that there would need to be a vacancy rate of 6 or 7 percent in the 1980s through job creation or turnover to place much the same proportions of PhD graduates in university posts as was the case during the 1970s. However, few new positions are being created, and unless tenure or retirement practices change the turnover rate is unlikely to exceed 4 percent per annum before 1990. The ratio of current PhD enrolments to the number of full-time academic staff in a discipline can be used as an index of the competition that PhD graduates will face in gaining a university appointment. The ratios for the various disciplines in 1982 were: humanities 0.63, fine arts 0.37, social and behavioural sciences 0.60, law 0.11, education 0.82, economics 0.36, medicine 0.74, dentistry 0.22, natural science 0.95, engineering 0.71, architecture 0.47, agriculture 1.17, and veterinary science 0.39. It can be seen that in some disciplines there were either more or almost as many PhD candidates as current full-time academic staff.

The career patterns of Australian graduates are not well documented. The most comprehensive information has come from surveys in which the Graduate Career Council of Australia has identified employment status as at 30 April in the year following graduation. However, the longer-term employment of graduates may not relate closely to first destination.In the 1970s about one-quarter of PhD graduates went overseas in the year following graduation, while 30 to 40 percent gained full-time employment in tertiary education. A further 20 percent had government employment, while fewer than 10 percent worked in the private sector. There now are markedly fewer vacancies within universities, and limits have been imposed for several years on recruitment by government agencies. Many more PhD graduates than in the past will need to look to the private sector for employment. The ease with which graduates with specialized research skills can gain private sector employment that utilizes their training will undoubtedly differ between disciplines. Many PhD graduates may suffer the fate ofunderutil- ization of their skills, rather than unemployment.

The reduced prospects of an academic career may make PhD training less attractive to graduates in the future. The change in labour market conditions possibly has already affected entry to PhD training. The number of PhD degrees

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awarded by Australian universities across all disciplines increased only from 771 in 1974 to 843 in 1978, and to 896 in 1982. The nature of PhD training may also be shifting to some extent to meet the realities of the market place. The well- being of Australian universities in 20 to 30 years' time may reflect the fate of PhD training over the next decade. As noted early, many academics who currently hold an appointment at lecturer level and above in Australian universities are due to retire in the first decade of next century. It will beironic if the limited opportunities for PhD graduates to obtain tenured academic positions in the 1980s and 1990s results in a shift in postgraduate enrolment patterns such that skilled personnel are in short supply at a time when many replacement appointments need to be made. The Australian university system would then need to draw heavily on overseas graduates, as it did during the period of expansion (see Saha and Klovdahl, 1979).

Career Development

The academic profession is hierarchically structured. The four career grades in Australian universities (lecturer, senior lecturer, reader or associate professor, professor) have non-overlapping salary ranges. Although some persons gain their first university appointment at higher status, the typical point of entry to an academic career is at the grade of lecturer. Neither the award of tenure nor uninterrupted progression from one career grade to another is automatic. An expanding university system offers greatest opportunity not only to enter the academic profession, but to advance rapidly through the career grades, particularly when the demand for qualified personnel is in excess of supply. Career prospects are diminished within a university system that is not experiencing growth.

Since the Australian universities now recruit mainly at the point of entry to the profession, career advancement is much more likely to occur through internal promotion than by movement from one university to another. Unlike the situation in the British universities (Hirsch and Morgan, 1978), the distribution of staff across grades in Australian universities is not fixed by a centrally determined quota. However, the Commonwealth Tertiary Education Commis- sion allocates funds on the basis that only one-quarter of posts at lecturer level or above will be filled at the rank of professor, associate professor, or reader. Many universities have imposed quotas on the number of academics to be promoted to associate professor or reader in a given year. Professorial appointm6nt is typically achieved through selection following advertisement of an established position rather than by promotion. Since few new chairs are createcl, it tends to be only after the death, resignation, or retirement of an incumbent that a professorial appointment is made.

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Over and Lancaster (1984) have documented the extent to which career prospects have deteriorated in Australian universities. They followed men and women who began as lecturers in 1962-1964 or 1975-1976 over a period of six years to establish how many academics had retained a university post, moved from one university to another, and advanced to a status beyond lecturer. Of those retaining an Australian appointment, 24 percent of the 1962-1964 cohort had shifted from one university to another over the period of six years, in contrast to 5 percent of the 1975-1976 cohort. Only 37 percent of the 1962-1964 cohort remained at the level of lecturer after six years, in contrast to 55 percent of the 1975-1976 cohort. Further, 8 percent of academics in the earlier period had advanced to reader, associate professor, or professor within six years, but only 1 percent of academics from the 1975-1976 cohort achieved this rate of advancement.

Promotion in the Australian universities is now highly competitive. In 1982, 55 percent of lecturers and 62 percent of senior lecturers were at the top of their salary scales, in contrast to 29 percent and 39 percent respectively in 1970. The career ceiling for many academics will be the senior lecturer grade, and some academics may find the transition from lecturer to senior lecturer too difficult to achieve. The economic returns from an academic career are probably less in real terms than they were in the 1960s or 1970s, when rapid promotion could be expected. Market forces such as income levels outside universities and the availability of alternative employment options may in time affect the commitment of individuals not only to entry to, but continuation in, a university appointment.

The shift that is occurring in the age distribution of Australian academics has already been noted. The median age of academics will be 50-55 years in the 1990s, in contrast to the present value of 40-45 years. Since there will be many more older academics than ever before, it is important to know whether aging lowers the standards at which academics perform role functions such as research. Further, will the shift in age structure affect the character of universities?

By analyzing citations in handbooks and histories, Lehman (1953) identified 30-39 years as the age range within which scientists are most likely to generate outstanding research. This value might suggest that as the age distribution of academics shifts during the 1980s and 1990s there will be a drop in the quality of research from Australian universities. At the same time, the methodology used by Lehman to establish relationships between age and achievement has been subject to severe criticism (see S. Cole, 1979). Many factors additional to aging seem to regulate performance at different stages during the professional career. S. Cole (1979) has argued that scholars who gain recognition continue to function in settings that enhance their further productivity. In contrast, scholars lacking recognition not only have progressively reduced access to resources in later career, but they become discouraged from further research activity. In

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terms of Cole's analysis, younger scientists are advantaged primarily through the recency of their training, and the likelihood that they have access to contemporary knowledge, techniques, and facilities. Such an approach attributes variation in achievement across the professional life span to factors such as obsolescence in skills and changes in opportunity and commitment, rather than to inevitable loss in ability with aging. Longitudinal comparisons (see Over, 1982) suggesting that the current level of research achievement of an academic is better predicted by past performance than by age are consistent with Cole's position.

Under conditions of no growth, the Australian university system seems likely to offer reduced physical, financial, and motivational support for scholarly activity. Sheehan (1984) has documented the extent to which support for fun- damental research has been eroded. For example, the Australian Research Grants Scheme funded 1,229 projects in 1985, in contrast to 1,313 projects in 1984. Only 26 percent of applications for new projects were supported. In a system where funding is more competitive than it once was, it seems unlikely that academics who failed to demonstrate achievement when they were young will reverse this pattern as they grow older. Cumulative statistics bearing on the scholary productivity and impact of Australian academics need to be collected so that the influence of reduced support on the activities of an aging population can be monitored. At the same time, the generation of knowledge through research is only one of several roles that are defined as appropriate for academics. Attention needs to be given to the question of whether aging modifies the extent of commitment and level of performance of academics in roles such as teaching, supervision, and administration.

Disciplines change in character, content, and methodology over time. In addition to being elderly, a majority of academics in Australian universities in the year 2000 will have trained during the 1960s or 1970s. The universities will face problems of rigidity and inflexibility to the extent that academics are resistant to change as they age. If aging produces obsolescence in values and interests as well as in knowledge and technical skills, the representation of specializations over the next 20 years may increasingly reflect past rather than contemporary trends. In a recent survey of Australian psychology departments (Over, 1981b), it was shown that the teaching and research interests of most academics are in traditional laboratory-based specializations such as experimen- tal psychology. Applied psychology and professional psychology are poorly represented. Parallel surveys need to be undertaken in other disciplines to establish the diversity and flexibility of intellectual resources within the Austra- lian universities.

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TABLE II

Full-time Academic Posts Held by Women in Australian Universities, 1965-1983

Post 1965 1971 1978 1983

N % N % N % N %

Professor 4 0.8 Associate Professor/Reader 12 2.7 Senior Lecturer 92 6.4 Lecturer 167 10.7 Principal/Senior Tutor 86 33.1 Tutor 264 33.2 Total 627 12.5

15 1.8 18 1.6 25 2.4 21 2.8 45 3.8 64 4.6

142 6.6 275 8.5 344 9.4 296 13.4 524 17.2 502 21.1 202 33.8 346 38.1 299 44.2 409 32.5 525 37.8 478 43.0

1085 13.9 1733 16.0 1710 16.7

Representation of Women

The number in academic posts in Australian universities has always been well below the level of representation of women as students (Over, 1981 c). It can be seen from Table II that most women with academic appointments are in positions of relatively junior status. In 1983 women numbered one in 40 professors and one in 20 readers or associate professors, while the ratio was one in five among lecturers and almost one in two among tutors. No woman has yet been appointed as vice-chancellor of an Australian university.

It can be argued that Australian universities have discriminated against women in appointments and promotion (Sawer, 1984). Although the limited representation of women in university posts is consistent with discrimination, numerical inequality does not constitute proof of discrimination (see J. R. Cole, 1979). As a supplement to staffing statistics, there seemingly is evidence from surveys (for example, Cass et al., 1983) that female academics have received unfavourable treatment in aspects of employment such as recruitment, promotion, study leave, and tenure. However, the surveys have been limited to self report measures. Further, no survey has yet employed multivariate data analysis in order to make allowance for differences between the men and women in the sample in factors such as age, level of qualification, academic rank, discipline, or work history.

Over (1981c) has argued that men are now advantaged in numbers and status through having been qualified and available for appointment at a time when the Australian university system underwent marked expansion. The sex ratio of academics in Australian universities in the mid 1970s, when expansion had ceased, matched the relative rates at which men and women had completed

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postgraduate training in the 1960s. In 1968, for example, women gained only 5 percent of the PhD degrees and 16 percent of the Masters degrees awarded across all disciplines by Australian universities. Further, most of these women trained in humanities, education, or the social and behavioural sciences, which are the disciplinary groupings that have by far the highest proport ion of women among academic staff.

Women have qualified and become available for appointment in universities in large numbers at a time when there are relatively few jobs to be filled. For example, women gained 22 percent of all PhD degrees awarded in 1982 (in contrast to 5 percent in 1968 and 15 percent in 1978), 27 percent of Masters degrees (16 percent in 1968 and 21 percent in 1978), and 41 percent of bachelors degrees (29 percent in 1968 and 39 percent in 1978). The sex ratio among graduates will shift further, since women constituted 28 percent of students entering PhD training in 1982, 32 percent of new Masters candidates, and 47 percent of first-year undergraduates. In addition, women are now training in relatively large numbers in specializations which men traditionally have domi- nated.

The policy discussion paper issued by the Australian Government in 1984 identifies increased equality of opportunity as the strategy to be used in increasing the number of women in occupations where currently they are poorly represented. Affirmative action was defined as " . . . a systematic means ... of achieving equal employment opportunity for women. Affirmative action is compatible with appointment and promot ion on the basis of the principle of merit, skills, and qualifications" (p. 3). At the present time the objective of the government is to encourage organizations to introduce affirmative action programmes on a voluntary basis. Several universities and tertiary institutes are among the organizations that have entered a commitment to introduce such schemes. Participating organizations are expected not only to identify the representation of women through statistical analysis, but to review selection and promot ion practices to ensure that explicitly and demonstrably fair processes are involved. In implementing affirmative action, organizations are advised to set short-term goals to remedy underrepresentation, but the longer-term objective is to ensure that there is no structural basis for inequality in employment opportunity. Although organizations should set targets for the employment of women, "[affirmative action] does not mean that women will be given preference over better qualified men . . . The government does not propose, or advocate, the use of employment quotas for women or any disadvantaged group since it believes that genuine progress in reducing occupational segregation can be made only if jobs are awarded on merit" (p. 3).

Sawer (1984) has detailed a number of administrative and procedural steps that would make the selection and promot ion process~es in Australian universities more explicit and accountable. Although tenurable positions in Australian

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universities are filled through a formal selection process following widespread advertisement of the position, there generally is at best a limited job description, the selection committee is not given or required to use explicit selection criteria, and the committee is subject to limited accountability. At the same time, there is no convincing evidence that the practices operating within Australian universities have treated women unfairly. Although anecdotes may justify opinion or suspicion about what happens in recruitment and promotion, they have no legitimate status as evidence. Case studies, such as those relied upon by Cass et al. (1983), offer a limited perspective, since sex is inevitably confounded with variables such as age, level of qualification, experience, and record of achievement. As noted earlier, numerical inequality does not constitute sufficient proof of discrimination. While it is true that women hold relatively few tenured positions, the representation of women at the time expansion in the university system ceased matched the sex ratio among students who completed postgraduate qualifications a few years earlier. Although some Australian universities have a much lower proportion than others of women academics, the difference is primarily attributable to variation in disciplinary structure (see Over, 1981c).

Over and McKenzie (1984) prepared labour market projections covering a period of ten years on the assumption that equal opportunity or affirmative action progammes will lead to women gaining academic appointments in accord with the sex ratio among PhD graduates a few years beforehand. If (a) the number of full-time positions at lecturer level and above remains at the 1982 value, (b) 5 percent of all positions fall vacant each year through death, retirement, or resignation, (c) 90 percent of the vacated positions were held by men, and (d) women gain 25 percent of all appointments, the proportion of full-time positions at lecturer level or above held by women in Australian universities will increase from 10.8 percent in 1982, to 13.8 percent in 1987, to 17.6 percent in 1992. Even if the number of established posts (lecturer and above) were to increase from 8,600 to 10,000 over ten years and women gained one-quarter of the additional 1,400 positions as well as one-quarter of all appointments made following death, resignation, or retirement, the representation of women in 1992 would be only 18.6 percent. There would be a greater shift in the sex ratio of academics if many additional jobs are created. However, none of the relevant indicators suggest there will be more than modest growth over the next ten years.

In the above projections it has been assumed that the entry of women to academic posts will match the representation of women within the qualified pool. Women now gain almost one-quarter of all PhD degrees. Women would hold 25.9 percent of positions in 1992, in contrast to 10.8 percent in 1982, if they gained one-half rather than one-quarter of all jobs filled over this period. However, recruitment of either sex at a rate beyond their representation within the qualified pool would seem inconsistent with appointment on the basis of skills, qualifications, and merit.

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The career prospects of women would be improved if the rate of turnover in academic positions increased. As Over and MacKenzie (1984) noted, affirmative action is typically conceptualized in terms of intragenerational conflict-women should have the opportunity to compete fairly with men of the same generation for whatever jobs become available. However, the issue of intergenerational equity may be important, since many recent graduates who cannot gain a university post already have a better record of achievement than a number of tenured academics who graduated a decade or two earlier. It remains to be seen whether affirmative action programmes will attempt to take into account the relative merit, skills, and qualifications of graduates from different generations, even though the members of one group hold appointments with tenure.

Are there Solutions?

The manpower problems that now face Australian universities would not have occurred if the university system had continued to grow at the rate it did in the 1960s. However, it was unrealistic to expect that exponential growth, with a doubling in numbers every seven years, could continue indefinitely. Neverthe- less, as recently as 1975, when the Commonwealth Universities Commission recommended to the Australian Government that two further universities be established, there seemed no realization that the 1980s would be a period of relative austerity, let alone contraction. If some of the problems that now confront universities were anticipated, preventative steps might have been taken. For example, recruitment practices could have been changed to ensure that the age structure of academics remained relatively stable over time. It should have been foreseen that, with a tenure system operating as it has, recent graduates (among whom there are proportionately more women than in the past) will experience difficulty not only in becoming academics, but in advancing to senior levels of appointment. The problems of the 1980s reflect the manner in which the university system developed in an earlier period. At the same time the difficulties now confronting Australian universities are much the same as those facing universities in other Western countries (see Kidd, 1981; Over, 1984).

As was noted earlier, there is no overall strategy that will simultaneously maintain tenure at its existing level, produce a steady-state age distribution of academics, allow even a moderate proportion of recent graduates to become academics, and increase the representation of women. One or more of these objectives can be achieved, but only at the expense of other objectives. The costs and benefits of several interventions will now be discussed.

Several problems would be solved if a large number of the positions that are currently held with tenure became vacant. At present, the normal age for retirement is 65. The age structure of Australian academics is such that relatively

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few positions will become vacant through retirement over the next ten to fifteen years. Turnover through resignation is also currently at a low rate. Since academics generally have high job satisfaction, few are likely to take premature retirement or shift to a different work environment in the absence of substantial incentives. There is no explicit early retirement scheme within the Australian university system. Displacement could occur through weakening of tenure. However, even if there were no contractual barriers, terminating tenure at age 60 would have limited short-term effects because of the age structure of the academics who now have tenure.

Interventions designed to displace older academics seem to be in part based on the assumption that the capacity to function as a scholar deteriorates with age. Although Lehman (1953) reported that creativity declines beyond the fourth decade of life, recent longitudinal comparisons suggest that the current level of research achievement of an academic is better predicted by past performance than by age (S. Cole, 1979; Over, 1982). Not only is there substantial overlap in talent and achievement between younger and older scholars, but within each age group there is considerable heterogeneity. Since there is consistency in performance at the level of the individual over time, it does not seem justifiable to use age as the primary criterion for displacement from appointments. Financially there may be short-term gains, since older academics tend to occupy senior posts; but if the objective of the invention is to improve promotion prospects and to allow a larger proportion of recent graduates to enter university teaching, there probably will not be longer-term savings. Older academics tend to be seen as expendable when the bulge, and hence the problem, is in the group now aged 36 to 45. It is this cohort which is overrepresented, relative to the age distribution that would be expected under steady-state conditions. Further, many members of this cohort probably demonstrate a lower level of role performance across a range of measures than do a number of older academics. Whatever tactics might be used to displace academics from tenured appointments, it should be noted as a complicating factor that there are substantial differences between disciplines and universities in the age structure of academics.

The career prospects of existing academics could be improved not only by accelerating the rate at which senior posts are vacated, but by allowing more positions to be held at senior levels. It is primarily budgetary pressure that limits the number of appointments at the levels of reader, associate professor, and professor. An alternative is to reduce the existing rank, and salary differentials within the university system. Although those who are now in a senior post would lose status and money through such an arrangement, it must be kept in mind that over their own career they themselves have been advantaged possibly as much by labour market conditions as by ability.

The continued overrepresentation of academics who trained in the 1960s and early 1970s may have adverse consequences for universities, particularly if

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attitudes and values, and not just knowledge and skills, become obsolete over time. Academics might serve as less effective role models as the generational difference between students and academics increases. Academics who themselves trained when their discipline was at a specific stage of development may not be receptive to modification of educational goals and programmes to meet a changing labour market for graduates. Even if the need for change is recognized, educational innovation in a system with relatively few new resources will be limited unless academics have the capacity and incentive to modify their interests and skills in mid or late career. If promotion, tenure, and retirement practices remain unchanged, a major problem over the next fifteen years will be to prevent and overcome personal and institutional obsolescence, rigidity, and inflexibility.

The career options open to graduates who now have little opportunity to enter the academic profession need to be identified. If training programmes are not sensitive to the marketplace, there may in time be a major shift in the commitment of students to further training in specific fields. In the future there could be a shortage of highly specialized personnel in some disciplines. A number of countries are attempting to maintain a pool of talent by funding programmes that provide limited-term support for recent graduates of outstanding merit (see Kidd, 1981). Under "new blood" schemes, some academic appointments are open only to recent graduates. Apart from a limited postdoctoral fellowship scheme and some level of reliance on fixed-term contract appointment at the lecturer level, the Australian university system has been insensitive to the plight of recent graduates.

Because of the exent to which women have been disadvantaged, it was asked earlier whether there now exist grounds for affirmative action in promotion and recruitment. Projections by Over and McKenzie (1984) indicate that the representation and status of women will not change much over the next fifteen years if the academic labour market continues to operate as at present. The Australian Government has expressed commitment to affirmative action, but what will happen in practice remains uncertain. The target-setting voluntary schemes in force in some institutions will serve as models for more general change if they are effective. If voluntary schemes are ineffective, the Government may well move to intervention through legislation. One important question is Whether affirmative action will be limited to iintragenerational competition. Intergenerational competition could occur only through a challenge to the tenure process. Over and McKenzie (1984) have discussed issues relating to the implementation of affirmative action in the Australian university system.

The analysis of the Australian academic labour market offered in this article is probably too pessimistic. The assumptions on which projections were based may not be legitimate. For example, although the Australian universities have not experienced an increase in funding in real terms for some years, it may be that the budgetary priorities of the Australian Government will change by the

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1990s. If the proportion of the Australian population participating in tertiary education increases, more jobs in universities are likely to be created. Economic growth may cause a number of academics to leave university posts to work in the private sector.

Turnover would also increase if there were a direct challenge to tenure, or if early retirement is encouraged. In place of the qualitative approach of the present analysis, quantitative modelling of staff resources in the Australian university system is needed. If projections under different assumptions are open to analysis and debate, it may be possible for bodies such as the Commonwealth Tertiary Education Commission to develop policies that will prevent or amelio- rate problems of the kind that were discussed earlier.

Notes

All figures cited for Australian universities in this article have been taken from the following sources: University Statistics A ustralia (published annually). Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Fifth Report of the Australian Universities Commision (1972). Canberra: Australian Govern- ment Publishing Service; Sixth Report of the Universities Commission (1975). Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service; Universities Commision Report for 1977-79 (1976). Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service; Tertiary Education Commis- sion Report for 1979-81 Triennium (1978). Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service; Tertiary Education Commission Report for 1982-84 Triennium (1981). Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service.

References

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Career prospects for academics in Australian universities