Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
China Energy Issues in the 12th Five Year Plan and Beyond Conference23-24 Feb 2012
The Energy Studies Institute at the NUSThe Energy Studies Institute at the NUS
Carbon Mitigation Strategies in China
Can Wang
T i h U i itTsinghua University
1
Outline
• China’s Carbon Mitigation Strategies and PoliciesChina s Carbon Mitigation Strategies and Policies
• Barriers for Further Mitigation in Chinag
• Conclusion Remarks
2
China’s Carbon Mitigation Strategies • Main mitigation targets set since 2006• Main mitigation targets set since 2006
Time to set targets
Base year
Target year
Indicator Targetset targets year year
2006 2005 2010Energy consumption per unit
of GDP‐20%
2009 2005 2020GHG emission per unit of
GDP‐40~‐45%
i f f il f l2009 2020
Ratio of non‐fossil‐fuelenergy in primary energy
consumption15%
2011 2010 2015Energy consumption per unit
of GDP‐16%
CO i i i f
3
2011 2010 2015CO2 emission per unit of
GDP‐17%
b hCarbon Mitigation AchievementsLimited energy consumption growth vs. Remarkable economic take-off in the 11th FYP. In the 11th FYP, China’s energy consumption increased
Energy intensity decreased by 19.1% in the 11th FYP, helping to avoid 1.55 bil. tons of CO2 emission reduction. The amount of CO2
by 6.6% each year; however, it successfully supported the economy to grow at an average speed of 11.2%.
2 2
reduced was nearly equal to 5 times the emission reduction committed by the EU under the KP
20%1.8 1 6
12%
16%
1.2
1.4
1.6
of GDP, TPEC
EC
GDPTotal primary energy consumption (TPEC)Annual growth rate of GDPAnnual growth rate of TPEC 1.2
1.6
ce/10,000 Yuan)
1.28
1 04
4%
8%
12%
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
al growth rate
GDP, TPE
0.8
ergy intensity (tc 1.04
0%
4%
0.0
0.2
0.4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Ann
ua 0.4
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Ene
4Note: GDP2005=1, TPEC2005=1Source: China Statistics Yearbooks (2006-2011), China's policies and actions to address climate change(2011).
Key Measures in China’s Carbon Mitigation Strategies
1. Optimizing industrial structure6. Sectoral carbon mitigation
2. Energy ConservationChina’s Mitigation
5. Promoting low-carbon development in localities
Strategies
3. Developing low-carbon energy4. Promoting technology innovation
5
d l1. Optimizing industrial structure• Main targets• Main targets
– Mode of economic growth: driven by secondary industry and production expansion driven jointly by three industries and structural optimization
Seven strategic and newly emerging industries
energy‐saving and environmental i i d– Share of tertiary industry in GDP : 40.3% (2005)
43.3% (2010)
– Share of tertiary industry in GDP : 43% (2010) 47% (2015)
protection industry new‐generation IT industry biological industry high‐end equipment(2015)
– Share of strategic and newly emerging industries in GDP: 8% (2015) 15% (2020)
• Key measures
high end equipment manufacturing industry new energy industry new materials industry hi l i d– replace small inefficient units with large advanced ones;
– use command & control and economic measures to restrain the development of energy‐intensive, resource‐intensive sectors;
new energy vehicle industry
Key policies• Decision on Speeding Up the Cultivation and Development of Strategic and Newly Emerging Industries国务院关于加快培育和发展战略intensive sectors;
– adjust export tax rebate policies;
– publish sectoral admittance standards and products’ energy consumption limits;
性新兴产业的决定(2010)
• Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Restructuring产业结构调整指导目录
(2006‐2011)
• Adjustment and Revitalization Plan for Ten Key Sectors十大重点产业
调整和振兴规划(2009)
• Opinions on Inhibiting Some Sectors’ Overcapacity and Redundant– promote corporate mergers;
– develop the strategic emerging industries and the service industries; 6
Opinions on Inhibiting Some Sectors Overcapacity and Redundant Construction and Guiding Industries’ Healthy Development关于抑制部
分行业产能过剩和重复建设引导产业健康发展的若干意见(2009)
• Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Service Industries关于
加快发展服务业的若干意见(2007)
2. Energy Conservation
• Main targets• Main targets– till 2010, 20% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP from that of 2005
– till 2015, 16% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP from that of 2010Key policiesh d
– The trend of controlling both total energy consumption and energy intensity is emerging.
• Key measures
Comprehensive Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Program in the 11th and 12th FYP “十一五”和"十二五"节能减排综合性工作方案
Opinions on Implementing the Ten Key Energy Conservation Projects “十一五”十大重点节能工程实施意见• Key measures
– energy‐saving target responsibility assessment
– ten key energy conservation projects
程实施意见
Top‐1000 Enterprises Energy Conservation Action Implementation Plan千家企业节能行动实施方案
Notice on Improving the Electricity Price Differentiation Policy 关于完善差别电价政策意见的通知
– the Top‐1000 Enterprises Energy Efficiency Program
– promote energy‐saving technologies and products
– develop circular economy
Notice on Launching the Work of Low‐carbon Pilot Provinces and Cities关于开展低碳省区和低碳城市试点工作的通知
Exampledevelop circular economy
– promote energy conservation market mechanism (EMCo)
– improve related standards (buildings, industrial products, carbon certificate)
Example
Beijing – a pioneer in total energy consumption control. Beijing has set a preliminary goal of total energy consumption in 2015: 90 million tce. Meanwhile, the share of– incentive policies (subsidies, energy price formation mechanism, electricity price differentiation mechanism, heat charging reformation, resource and import/export tax reform) 7
goal of total energy consumption in 2015: 90 million tce. Meanwhile, the share of “high‐quality” energy at the end of 12th FYP should reach at least 80%; the coal
consumption in 2015 should be limited within 20 million tons.
3. Developing low‐carbon energy
M i t t• Main targets– till2015: Ratio of non‐fossil‐fuel energy in primary energy consumption reached 11.4% (8.3%
in 2010)
till 2020 R ti f f il f l i i ti h d 15%– till 2020: Ratio of non‐fossil‐fuel energy in primary energy consumption reached 15%
• Key measures: financial subsidy, tax incentives, subsidies for power generation
• Examples: p– Enterprises get a certain amount of financial subsidy if they replace water gas with natural gas
(e.g., in Jiangxi, the subsidy is 0.35 Yuan/m3).
– Enterprises who utilize coal‐bed methane for power generation can get a subsidy of 0.25
Key policies• Renewable Energy Law 可再生能源法• Renewable Energy Mid- and Long-term Development Plan 可再生能源中长期发展规划• Energy Development Plan in the 11th Five-Year Period 能源发展十一五规划
Yuan/kWh.
– Wind: VAT halved policy; divide China into four wind‐resource areas and set benchmark prices for wind power for each area respectively; the part of price higher than local desulfurization
l fi d i ill b d b h i l bl iff h
十 五规划• Interim Management Measures of Special Fund for Renewable Energy Development 可再生能源发展专项资金管理暂行办法• Pilot Management Measures for Pricing and Cost-sharing of Renewable Energy可再生能源发电价格和费用分摊管理试行办法• The Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Development of Coal-bed
煤层气（煤矿瓦斯）开发利用“十 五”规划coal‐fired units will be covered by the national renewable energy tariff surcharge.
– Solar PV: The Golden Sun Demonstration Project, which helps cover 50%~70% of total investment costs and gives certain interests discount/subsidies for provinces , aims to support the demonstration and industrialization of key solar PV technologies
Methane 煤层气（煤矿瓦斯）开发利用“十二五”规划• The Notice on Improving the Pricing Policy of Wind Power关于完善风力发电上网电价政策的通知• Interim Management Measures of Financial Subsidy for Golden Sun Demonstration Projects 金太阳示范工程财政补助资金管理暂行办法the demonstration and industrialization of key solar PV technologies.
8
行办法
3. Developing low‐carbon energy
Massive development of new and renewable energy in the 11th FYPWind and other new/renewable energy’s annual growth rates reached 90% and 21% respectively. The growth rates and the absolute amount of increase both t d th h l ldtopped the whole world.
9
4. Promoting technology innovationi• Main targets
– till 2010: Ratio of research and experiment expenditures in GDP reaches 2%
– till 2015: Ratio of research and experiment expenditures in GDP reaches 2.2%
– National Climate Change Science Technology Special Action: Greatly improve the capacity of independent innovation in the area of climate change; make breakthrough in a number of key mitigation technologies with independent IPR and deploy them widely in the societyin the society……
• Key measures– increase the investment in R&D
fi i l b idi d t i ti t t th d t ti j t
Key policies: National Climate Change Science and Technology Special Action 中国应对气候变化科技专项行动– use financial subsidies and tax incentives to support the demonstration projects
– launch Knowledge Innovation Project and Technical Innovation Project
– initiate venture capital plan for emerging industries
i i l h l f d S h S h h l i
National Mid‐ and Long‐term Science and Technology Development Plan国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要
The Outline for Chinese Energy‐saving Technologies中国节能技术大纲
Work Program of Controlling GHG Emissions in the 12th FYP“十二五”控制– promote international technology transfer and South‐South technology cooperation温室气体排放工作方案
The Decision on Accelerating the Cultivating and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries关于加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业的决定
10
5. Promoting low‐carbon development in localities
• Main targetsg– Each province has a carbon intensity target till 2015. For example, Beijing –
18%; Guangdong – 19.5%; Tibet – 10%;
– establish domestic carbon emission trading market in the 12th FYP– establish domestic carbon emission trading market in the 12 FYP
• Key measures– establish leading group on climate change at provincial level and launch target Key policies:
Work Program of Controlling GHG Emissions in the 12th FYP“十二五”控制responsibility assessment
– 5 pilot low‐carbon provinces and 8 pilot low‐carbon cities; 7 pilot cities for carbon emission trading, to start cap‐and‐trade program since 2013
Work Program of Controlling GHG Emissions in the 12 FYP 十二五 控制温室气体排放工作方案
Low‐carbon Development Plan in Each Province 各省制定的低碳发展规划
The Decision on Carrying Out the Work of Low‐carbon Pilot Provinces and Cities 关于开展低碳省区和低碳城市试点工作的通知
– make and launch low‐carbon development plan at 31 provinces
– establish GHG emission statistics system and the management system
– financial subsidy (energy‐saving and emission reduction fund renewable
The Notice on Carrying Out the Work of Carbon Emission Trading Pilot Program关于开展碳排放权交易试点工作的通知
– financial subsidy (energy‐saving and emission reduction fund, renewable energy development fund, CDM fund…)
– use tax incentive, bank loan policies, pricing and industrial policies to support emission reductionemission reduction
– Public involvement efforts to promote low‐carbon consumption mode11
National Pilot Program on Low-Carbon Provinces and Cities
•include work on climate change in their local five-year plans and formulate low-local five year plans and formulate lowcarbon development plans
•formulate supporting policies to facilitate low carbon development
•accelerate the establishment of low-carbon industrial structurecarbon industrial structure
•establish a statistics and information management system for GHG emissions
The first batch of low-carbon pilot provinces and cities accounts for 34% of China’s
management system for GHG emissions
•actively promote low-carbon lifestyle and consumption patterns in order to reduce
12
GDP and about 30% of China’s emissions.
GHG emissions
l b6. Sectoral carbon mitigationM i t t• Main targets
– Power generation sector: till 2015, coal consumption per kWh of power generation should reach or get lower than 330g. (already realized in 2011)
Iron & steel sector: till 2011 72 million tons of backward iron making capacity and 25Key policies:– Iron & steel sector: till 2011, 72 million tons of backward iron making capacity and 25 million tons of backward steel making capacity should be retired; comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel should be less than 620 kgce; CO2 emissions per ton of steel production should be less than 1.6t; 100% recycle rate of secondary energy.
y p Action Plan to Address Climate Change in China’s Forestry Sector应对气候变化林业行动计划
Hundreds of energy consumption limits of products 多达百项的产品能耗限额标准p y y gy
similar targets in other industrial sectors
– Forestry: from 2011 to 2020, annual average afforestation area should reach 5 million hectares; national forest coverage rate should increase to 23%; forest stock volume should
h billi 3
Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Restructuring产业结构调整指导目录(2006-2011)• Adjustment and Revitalization Plan for Ten Key Sectors十大重点产业调整和振兴规划(2009)
reach 14 billion m3…
• Key measures– establish sectoral action plan to deal with climate change (e.g., Action Plan to Address
)
• Opinions on Inhibiting Some Sectors’ Overcapacity and Redundant Construction and Guiding Industries’ Healthy Development关于抑制部分行业产能过剩和重复建设引导产业健康发展的若干意见(2009)
Climate Change in China’s Forestry Sector)
– replace small inefficient units with large advanced ones (in the 11th FYP, this measure had realized 280 million tons of CO2 reduction in China’s power generation sector )
S t hi h i d t i l t b h k d t i t ti li it– Set up higher industrial entry benchmark and more stringent energy consumption limits
– improve the recycle rate of secondary energy13
Major industrial sectors in China have all over-fulfilled the backward production capacity replacement plan in the 11th FYP.Chi h li i t d 77GW b k d d ti it i ti t 123
400
China has eliminated 77GW backward production capacity in power generation sector, 123 MT in iron making sector, 72 MT in steel making sector, and 370 MT in cement sector in the 11th FYP, surpassing the original plan by 55%, 23%, 31% and 48% respectively.
300
350
400
W, M
T)
201020092008
200
250
300
emen
t (G
W 20082006-2007Target in 11th FYP
100
150
el o
f ret
ire
0
50
Power Iron making Steel making Cement
Leve
14
Power generation
Iron making Steel making Cement production
Looking to the future for further mitigation…• 1. The current stage of development determines that the rapidly g p p y
growing trend of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China can hardly be changed within short period.
CO2 emissions per capita in 2008 in China reached 5.4 tons, surpassing the world average of 4.5 tons. Nearly 1/3 of US level
Cumulative CO2 emissions per capita in China are far less than the developed countries. About 1/6 of US level and 1/3 of EU-27 levelaverage of 4.5 tons. Nearly 1/3 of US level.
18.616.8
World average 4.5 t
US
Canada300
400
ssions per
Metric tons)
11.510.9 10 9.3 8.4 8 7.5 7.1 5.9 5.42.1 1.3
EU‐27
RussiaJapan
Germany
UKItaly
Korea
FranceSouth Africa100
200
ative CO
2em
is1990
‐2008) (M
1.3China
India Brazil
France
0
100
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
Cumula
capita (1
15
GDP per capita in 2008 (USD)
Source: CAIT Version 9.0.
1. The current stage of development determines that the rapidly growing trend of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in
China can hardly be changed within short period
18 EIA High Case
China can hardly be changed within short period.
14
16
m ene
rgy in
EIA Reference Case
EIA Low Case
8
10
12
ission
s from
(bn. to
ns)
IEA
China NEA (Policy)
4
6
8
ted CO
2em
iCh
ina
ERI(Policy)
ERI(Advanced)
0
2
4
Project
Tsinghua(Policy)
Tsinghua(Advanced)
16
02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2050
Source: EIA, IEA, NEA, Tsinghua.
POPGDPTOECOCO 2
2 POPPOPGDPTOE
CO 2
Carbon EnergyCO2emissions
Carbon content of the energy
Energy Intensity of
the economy
Production per capita Population×＝ ××
Energy structure
optimization
Technology progress
Industrial structure adjustment
The Kaya equation clearly shows that technology i d t i l t t dj t t dprogress, industrial structure adjustment, and
energy structure optimization are the key measures to reali e arbon red tion
17
to realize carbon reduction.
2. China, as a whole, still has comparatively large potential to improve the technical efficiency. However, in some specific sectors and areas, along with
the continuous progress of energy saving and emission reduction, the mitigation potential from technical progress has become very limited.
I t ti l i f C iti f Chi ’ i t ll d itInternational comparison of energy intensity in 2007 (toe/mil.USD) For China as a whole, there is still big room for further improvements in energy efficiency
Composition of China’s installed capacity in power generation sector in 2010 About 50% of the installed capacity are built in the 11th FYP.
1650
improvements in energy efficiency.
300MW‐, 27.37%
1000MW+, 4.46%
770 750
315 290 204 160
600MW~1000MW, 32.31%
204 160 99 300MW~600MW, 35.86%
18Source:IEA, 2009. Source: State Electricity Regulatory Commission, 2011.
2. China, as a whole, still has comparatively large potential to improve the technical efficiency. However, in some specific sectors and areas, along with
the continuous progress of energy saving and emission reduction, the
International comparison of energy conversion efficiency of coal-fired
mitigation potential from technical progress has become very limited.
International comparison of energy conversion efficiency of coal fired generating units in the world’s top 10 power generating countries
42.05% 42%39%
50%
Note: China’s data was in
39% 38% 38%36% 36%
32%29% 27%30%
40%
源转换
总效
率
2007; while other countries’ data were the average values 10%
20%
煤电
厂能源
for 2001-2005. 0%
中国 日本 法国 德国 加拿大 美国 韩国 俄罗斯 巴西 印度China Japan France Germany Canada USA Korea Russia Brazil India
19Source: IEA, 2008. “Energy Efficiency Indicators for Public Electricity Production from Fossil Fuels”China Electricity Council, 2009.
3. China’s mitigation potential will rely more and more on industrial and economic structural adjustment. However, these structures are not subjective
choices but are up to the role that China is playing in the internationalchoices, but are up to the role that China is playing in the international industrial chain. Therefore, structural adjustment will need quite a long.
Different economic structures lead to different emission structures as well as different mitigation challenges. Besides electricity sector, most emissions from developed countries come from transport sectors, therefore their mitigation strategies lie mainly on reducing emissions from consumption; however, in developing countries such as China, most emissions come from manufacturing and construction sector (plus, 20% of China’s emissions are embodied in export goods).
Other sectors5%
Emission structure in US
Residential
Other sectors4%
Emission structure in China
Electricity and heat
productionTransport
Residential6%
Electricity and heat
Transport7%
Residential4%
42%
Other energyManufacturing
Transport31%
heat production
48%
Other energy industry‐own
Manufacturing industries and construction
33%
20Source: IEA, 2011. “CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion”
Other energy industry‐ own
use5%
Manufacturing industries and construction
11%
industry own use4%
4. Although new and renewable energy are developing very rapidly in China, the coal‐dominant energy structure in China will continue for a
long period which constrains the pace of China’s mitigationlong period, which constrains the pace of China s mitigation.
2500 Comparison of primary energy structure in 2009
2000 2.98.7
6.40.7
1000
1500 Hydro
Nuclear
22.8
27
70.64.612.516.1
500
1000 Coal
Gas
Oil3.7
25.5
41.3
0 38.6 18.6
Source: BP Statiscial Review of World Energy, June 2010.
l kConclusion RemarksTh hi t f l b d l t i Chi d i ifi t• The achievement of low‐carbon development in China deserves significant recognition. There was also tangible improvement in technological progress and in reforming and upgrading energy intensive industries, eliminating inefficient production capacity. A system of policies and institutions for low carbon development has been established, and is improving.
• Facing the urgent task of carbon mitigation China is experiencing huge• Facing the urgent task of carbon mitigation, China is experiencing huge challenges from the size of her emissions, the trend of continuous growth in emission, the shrinking of mitigation potential from technology progress, the l d diffi lt iti ti f t t l dj t t d th i h tslow and difficult mitigation from structural adjustment, and the inherent high‐carbon energy structure.
• In the 12th FYP and beyond changing the development pattern controlling theIn the 12 FYP and beyond, changing the development pattern, controlling the emissions during development, continuously pushing forward technical efficiency improvement and reducing the emissions embodied in international trade are the most important measures to control China’s emissionstrade are the most important measures to control China s emissions.
22
Thank you for your attention!
23
