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PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
IEA's Programme on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage
and Critical Issues for Implementation
Jacek PodkanskiInternational Energy Agency
UNECE Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Coal in Sustainable DevelopmentEighth Session, Geneva: 2-3 February 2006
PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Carbon Capture & StorageResearch, Development, Demonstration and Deployment
● US: FutureGen● EU: Hypogen● Canadian Clean Power Coalition● Australia● Germany: COORETEC ● UK● Norway ● France ● Italy● Japan,…
G8Carbon Sequestration Leadership ForumInternational Energy AgencyIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) World Energy Council…
Alstom ExxonMobilBP EniTecnologie SpAChevronTexacoEPRI Shell InternationalRWE AG TotalRio Tinto, Schlumberger,…
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Energy Technology Scenarios
Carbon Capture & Storage at the International Energy Agency
IEA Working Party on Fossil Fuels
IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme
IEA Clean Coal Centre
IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board
Secretariat
PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Prospects for CO2 Capture and Storage
What is CO2 capture & storage?
What are the costs?
How does the cost-effectiveness of CCS compare to other emission reduction options?
What will it take to bring CO2 capture and storage to market?
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PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
What is CO2 capture & storage?
Capturing CO2 from the gas streams emitted during electricity production, industrial processes or fuel processing
Transporting the captured CO2 by pipeline or in tankers
Storing CO2 underground in deep saline aquifers, depleted oil and gas reservoirs or unminable coal seams
PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Capture – Technology Status
CO2 capture is a proven technology
It reduces emissions by 85-95%
But its energy efficiency can be further improved and cost must be reduced
This requires integrated power plant and CO2 capture designs
Most of these advanced designs are not yet proven on a commercial scale
Examples: new chemical absorbents, oxyfueling, hydrogen combined cycles, IGCC, USCSC, chemical looping, fuel cells
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PROSPECTSFOR
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Energy Technology Scenarios
Capture - Opportunities
Fossil fueled power plants
Biomass fueled power plants
Certain industrial processes
Synfuels production
Natural gas processing
PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Aquifer storage: demonstration
CO2-EOR: demonstration
CO2-EGR: pilot
CO2-ECBM: pilot
Storage – Technology Status
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PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Storage - Capacity
1,000-10,000 Gt aquifer storage capacity
100-120 Gt depleted oil fields/EOR
700-800 Gt depleted gas fields/EGR
20 Gt ECBM
Fixation mechanisms reduce risk
Monitoring is feasible and cheap
PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Costs - overview
Capture (incl. compression)Current: 5 – 50 USD/tCO2 av.
Future: 5 - 30 USD/tCO2 av.Coal-fired power plants 10 – 25 USD/tCO2 av.Gas-fired power plants 25 – 30 USD/tCO2 av.
Transportation 2 – 20 USD/tCO2 av.
Injection 2 – 50 USD/tCO2 av.
Revenues -55 – 0 USD/tCO2 av.
Total -40 – 100 USD/tCO2 av.
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PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Capture (electricity)- adds presently 2-3 UScents/kWh- long term 1-2 UScents/kWh
8.639.22866Gas, CC & SOFC (2030)7.749.01356Coal, IGCC & SOFC (2035)
9.334.53356Gas, CC, Chemical looping (2025)
14.738.21439Coal, CFB, Chemical looping (2020)Speculative technologies
21.596.12333Biomass, IGCC (2025)4.427.9425Black liquor, IGCC (2020)
9.634.82551Gas, CC, Selexol, OxF (2020)10.736.82947Gas, CC, CA (2010)8.041.01140Coal, IGCC, Selexol (2020)14.952.32038Coal, IGCC, Selexol (2010)17.549.01742Coal, USC, membranes +CA (2030)
17.146.32136Coal, steam cycle, membranes +CA (2020)21.951.02431Coal, steam cycle, CA (2010)
Likely technologies
Additional electricity costs
[Mils/kWh]
Electricitycosts
[Mils/kWh]
Capture costs
[$/t CO2 capt]
Electricefficiency
[%]Fuel, technology
PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Costs – general comments
CCS costs competitive with other CO2abatement options
Coal without CCS has no future in a CO2-constrained world
Electricity from coal or gas-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage is still cheaper than most renewables (fuel price dependent)
Efficiency first
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PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Global CO2 emissions
PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
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Energy Technology Scenarios
Emission stabilisationMarginal CO2 abatement cost
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PROSPECTSFOR
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Energy Technology Scenarios
CO2 price
PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
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Energy Technology Scenarios
Capture at various CO2 prices
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
[Gt C
O2/
yr]
GLO100GLO50GLO25
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PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Share of CCS in total CO2 emissions mitigation
PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
CO2 capture by process area
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PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
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Energy Technology Scenarios
CO2 capture by technology
PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
IGCC and steam cycles
Steam cycles and IGCC are competing options for coal-based electricity generation with CO2 capture and storage
Without synfuel cogeneration in IGCC installations the CCS potential declines by 30%
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PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
COCO22 emissions from electricity emissions from electricity generationgeneration
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
[Gto
n C
O2]
0$10$25$25$ NoCCS50$50$ NoCCS
PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Electricity production mix
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PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
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Energy Technology Scenarios
Electricity production by power plants fitted with CCS, by region
PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
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Energy Technology Scenarios
Fuel market implications:CCS impact on coal use at 50$/t CO2
0
100
200
300
400
No CO2 policy 50 US$/t CO2,CCS
50 US$/t CO2,no CCS
2000 2050 2050 2050
[EJ/
yr]
CCS impact
2050: 50$/t CO2 results in 80% or 40% decline in coal use, depending on availability of CCS
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CO2 CAPTUREAND
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Energy Technology Scenarios
Overview of sensitivity analysis results (influence on CO2 captured and stored in 2050)
-15% to +15%GDP growth 2.2% to 3.2% (basis: 2.8%)
-15%Additional electricity savings (10% more)
-50%Cheaper renewables because of investment policies & technology learning
-30%No IGCC for synfuel cogeneration
-40%Nuclear power allowed to grow
-50% to +30%Different CO2 pricing (25 – 100 USD/t CO2, basis: 50 USD)
-10%CO2 pricing delayed by 15 years
-50% to -80%CCS only in OECD countries
PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Challenges
RD&D gaps
Public awareness and acceptance
Legal and regulatory framework
Long-term policy framework andincentives
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PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
RD&D gaps
More proof of storage needed
CO2 capture demonstration needed
0.5-1 bln per demonstration plant
Present spending 100 MUSD/yr
A fivefold increase of RD&D needed
PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Long-term policy framework andincentives
In addition to the acceleration of RD&D funding, countries should create a level-playing field for CCS alongside other climate change mitigation technologies. This includes ensuring that various climate change mitigation instruments, including market-oriented trading schemes, are adapted to include CCS.
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PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Conclusions
CCS can play a key role in addressing global warming
mainly through coal plants in coal-rich regionsbut also some natural gas opportunities
Carbon incentives are needed, but also:Proven technologyAcceptable storage
PROSPECTSFOR
CO2 CAPTUREAND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Thank you
