of 100 /100
Capture-recapture analysis for surveillance of tuberculosis Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

Capture-recapture analysis for surveillance of tuberculosis · Capture-recapture analysis for surveillance of tuberculosis. Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

  • Author
    vannhi

  • View
    219

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Text of Capture-recapture analysis for surveillance of tuberculosis · Capture-recapture analysis for...

  • Capture-recapture analysis for

    surveillance of tuberculosis

    Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

  • e Dr. Rob van Hest, MD MSc PhD

    Consultant Tuberculosis Control Physician/Epidemiologist

    Department of Infectious Disease Control

    Tuberculosis Control Section

    Rotterdam Municipal Public Health Service

    ROTTERDAM

    The Netherlands

    Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

  • Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Kopregel Surveillance

    The process of continuous and systematic

    collection, processing, analysis and interpretation of

    data regarding health which are important for

    planning, implementing and evaluating public health

    care, and reporting and distributing this information

    to all those who should know this

  • Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Kopregel

    For all these reasons, it is impossible to obtain accurate data

    concerning the prevalence of tuberculous infection even during recent times.

    Ren and Jean Dubos

    The White Plague; Tuberculosis, Man and Society

    Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1952:6

  • Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Kopregel Surveillance is an indispensable part of infectious disease control and reliable information is essential

    A common method of infectious disease surveillance uses

    the notifications but not every patient is reported

    (incomplete reporting or under-notification)

    Apart from the notifications other registers could exist

    containing information about infectious diseases, e.g.

    hospital admission registers of laboratory registers

  • Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Kopregel

    After record-linkage of various infectious disease registers

    the completeness of the notification register can, under

    certain assumptions, be estimated by a technique called

    capture-recapture analysis

    Record-linkage of various infectious disease registers

    improves case-ascertainment

  • Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Kopregel

    Capture-recapture analysis is a technique

    originally developed within population biology

    for estimation of the size of animal populations

  • Capture

  • 1 5

    6 7 8

    9

    2 3 4

    10 11 12 13

    Assumption 1: unique identification

  • 1 5

    6 7 8

    9

    2 3 4

    10 11 12 13

    Een ander belangrijk punt is de kwaliteit van de gekoppelde data. Hebben alle gevangen patienten wel de betreffende ziekte? (Hoedt U voor misfits en look alikes)

    2

    5

    11

    Assumption 2: only individuals from the study population should be caught

  • 1 5

    6 7 8

    9

    2 3 4

    10 11 12 13

    Een ander belangrijk punt is de kwaliteit van de gekoppelde data. Hebben alle gevangen patienten wel de betreffende ziekte? (Hoedt U voor misfits en look alikes)

    2

    5

    11

    Assumption 2: no false-positive captures

  • Assumption 3: homogeneous distribution

  • Recapture

  • !

    Assumption 4: the recapture should be independent of the (first) capture

  • ?

  • Assumption 5: closed population

  • 1 5

    6 7 8

    9

    2 3 4

    10 11 12 13

    Assumption 6: perfect linkage between capture and recapture is possible

  • Hervangst Recapture

  • Under these assumption this formula is valid:

    1st Capture Recapture

    Petersens estimator

  • Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Kopregel

    Many years later capture-recapture analysis is also

    applied within epidemiology, e.g. to estimate the size of a

    group of persons with a certain disease

  • Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Kopregel

    For application of capture-recapture analysis within

    (infectious disease) epidemiology, being captured once,

    twice or three times is translated into being known to one,

    two, three or multiple (infectious disease) registers

  • 0 0 0

    0 0 1

    0 1 0

    0 1 1

    1 0 0

    1 0 1

    1 1 0

    1st capture 2nd capture 3rd capture

    1 1 1

  • 0 0 0

    0 0 1

    0 1 0

    0 1 1

    1 0 0

    1 0 1

    1 1 0

    1st capture 2nd capture 3th capture

    1 1 1

    register 1 register 2 register 3

  • Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Kopregel

    Notifications

    Laboratory

    Hospital admissions

    301

    78

    93

    510 30

    99

    388

  • For epidemiological applications of capture-recapture

    analysis, record-linkage of at least three registers is

    preferable

    2nd recapture 3rd recapture 1st recapture

  • Vangst-hervangst

    methode

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in resource-rich countries

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in resource-rich countries

    Three sources: Notification Laboratory - Hospital

    After record-linkage completeness of case-ascertainment was 93.3%

    A parsimonious capture-recapture model with only one interaction

    term was preferred

    Overall estimated under-notification was was 79.1% (plausible).

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in resource-rich countries

  • Three Dutch tuberculosis registers were linked:

    1. Notifications (IGZ)

    2. National reference laboratory cultures (RIVM)

    3. Hospital admissions (Prismant)

    Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

  • A

    B

    D

    F

    C

    Notifications

    Hospital admissions Laboratory

    E G

    Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    Mycobacteria Other Than Tuberculosis?

    (MOTT) (not excluded)

    Other disease than tuberculosis? (not excluded)

    Remaining false-positives cases?

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    Are these patients real tuberculosis patients?

    Increase positive predictive value of the registers!!

    CROSS-VALIDATION!!!

  • A

    E

    F

    C

    Notifications

    Hospital admissions Laboratory

    G D

    MOTT

    MOTT

    B

    NTR

    NTR

    PALGA

    PALGA

    Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    78 Notification (n = 1298)

    23

    388

    Hospital (n = 610)

    510

    5

    30 58

    3

    46

    229

    53 1

    40

    8

    9

    18

    Laboratory (n = 1006)

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    Laboratory (n = 1006)

    Hospital (n = 610)

    Notification (n = 1298)

    78

    510

    30

    388

    301

    99

    93

    Notification (n = 1298)

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    The best-fitting log-linear capture-recapture model was

    the saturated model, i.e. including all pair-wise

    interactions and possibly three-source interaction.

    Estimated completeness of notification: 63.2% (95% CI

    53.1-69.4)!!

    The model estimates 2053 tuberculosis patients (95% CI

    1871-2443), i.e. 554 unobserved tuberculosis cases!!

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    The adjusted estimated completeness of notification of

    36.8% is highly inconsistent with prior expectations!!

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    301

    388

    Laboratory (n = 1006)

    Hospital (n = 552)

    40

    548

    99

    30

    35

    Notification (n = 1336)

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    The best-fitting log-linear capture-recapture model on the

    adjusted data was a parsimonious model, containing two

    pair-wise interactions [N*H] and [N*L]: G2 = 0.053; D.F. =

    2; P = 0.974; Akaike Information Criterion = 3.95)

    Estimated completeness of notification: 86.4% (95% CI

    83.5-88.3)!!

    The model estimates 1547 tuberculosis patients (95%CI

    1513-1600), i.e. 106 unobserved tuberculosis cases!!

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    CONCLUSIONS

    Even in a country with a well-organised system of

    tuberculosis control, record-linkage and cross-validation

    three source capture-recapture analysis can easily produce

    erroneous results and slight adjustment for possible

    misclassification of laboratory patients and remaining

    false-positive hospital cases had a considerable impact on

    the log-linear capture-recapture estimate

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in resource-rich countries

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in resource-rich countries

    Three sources: Notification Laboratory - Hospital

    High number of TB patients only recorded in hospital episode register:

    complex population-mixture model was required to estimate proportion

    of true TB patients

    For all estimates the saturated log-linear model was preferred

    Overall estimated under-notification was 43.8% (not plausible).

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in middle-income country

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in middle-income country

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in middle-income country

    Saturated model estimated completeness of notifications at 78%.

    After internal validity analysis and use of alternative truncated

    population estimation models (truncated Poisson and truncated

    Poisson mixture models) we estimate completeness of the Notification

    register between 82%-85%

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in resource-limited countries

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in resource-limited countries

    247

    5 76

    40

    0

    1

    41

    NTP

    (n = 364)

    Public non-NTP

    (n = 82)

    Private non-NTP

    (n = 82)

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in resource-limited countries

    The selected model (AIC: -1,873) contained two (expected) interactions

    (Public non-NTP referred to the NTP!) and estimated the CDR of the

    NTP surveillance at 55% (95% CI 45% - 68%) for all TB cases

    Internal validity analysis indicated similar relevant interactions

    as the log-linear model.

    The estimated CDR of NTP surveillance for sputum smear-positive

    cases was 66%

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in resource-limited

    countries

  • Yemen 2010

  • Yemen 2010

  • Yemen 2010

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in resource-limited countries

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in resource-limited countries

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in resource-limited countries

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis in resource-limited countries

  • Iraq 2011

  • Iraq 2011

  • Iraq 2011

  • Iraq 2011

  • Iraq 2011

  • Iraq 2011

  • Iraq 2011

  • Iraq 2011

  • Iraq 2011

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    in resource-limited countries

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    in resource-limited countries

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    in resource-limited countries

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    in resource-limited countries

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    in resource-limited countries

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    in resource-limited countries

    The log-linear model selected was a parsimonious model incorporating

    two interaction effects: the centralised laboratory and tuberculosis

    treatment register interaction and the centralised laboratory and hospital

    laboratory interaction.

    The log-linear model estimated completeness of registration of

    bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis at 75%

    Extra problem: initial defaulting!

  • Capture recapture analysis and tuberculosis

    in resource-limited countries

  • Westbank 2013

  • Westbank 2013

  • Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Tekst tekst tekst tekst tekst

    Kopregel Thank you for your attention