The Niger Triangle: Combating Transregional Threats in the Sahel

AGENDA1. Research Question & Thesis2. Assumptions3. The Niger Triangle in Context4. Research & Findings5. Recommendation6. Questions

Research Question

• How can SOCOM better frame and address transregional threats in the Sahel?

Tentative Thesis:

• SOCOM would be well advised to implement activities that spearhead a whole-of-government approach / Regional approach that bridges and unifies the interagency spheres host nation efforts that subvert terrorist operations in the Sahel.

Assumptions

AFRICOM/SOCOM does not create policy. (Operational Focus)

AFRICOM/SOCOM must work hand in hand with the diplomatic corps.

AFRICOM/SOCOM goal is to keep our footprint in Africa limited.

AFRICOM/SOCOM is most effective when it listens to its African partners.

Partner led solutions - SOCOM enables.

Don't expect instant results

BOKO HARAM

ISIS

AQIM

Context

● Population suffers from food & water insecurity● Ungoverned spaces; Vast territories● Lack of development

○ Niger HDI is 187th out of 188 observed States

● Breeding ground for VEOs to facilitate illicit activities● Why the US should care about the Sahel

○ Africa is projected to add 1.9 billion from 2018 to 2050. ○ EU partners are experiencing high levels of human migration from Africa.○ China is cementing their position in the region○ Transregional threats have the ability to become existential threats (i.e. Middle East)

Research Areas

I. Financial AnalysisII. Civil Affairs OperationsIII. Incident Management SystemIV.Military Partner Integration

Analysis of USG FinancesIssue: Investments can be incongruent or redundant; only applied to permeable regions.

Finding: $$ -> Barriers.

Financial commitments to Africa fell 12% since 2016.

Money, Permeability, and Progress

PermeabilitySecurity Deficits and impermeable areas stultify agency investors.

Impermeable/permeable area’s create barriers for agencies.

Money

Agencies invest in their own interests.

Investments are restricted to permeable areas.

Progress

Hindered by unfocused investments.

Retarded when newly stabilized areas are neglected by follow-on investors.

Funding illuminates gaps and can indicate progress trends.

SOF Civil Affairs Operations● Over-reliance on Title 10 train and assist operations

○ SOF CAO: restoring the public’s trust in their local government, rule of law■ Humanitarian assistance (famines, natural disasters)

● Bolstered by programs such as USAID’s RISE program (partnering with development community and integration with non-military agencies such as State, USAID)

● Trust and reconciliation: Facilitating dialogue between local and central governments● Integrating SOF CAO and civilian agencies

○ Developing a supportive culture with shared goals and equity○ Strengthening and enabling interagency coordination

■ Example: the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCTP)● “Strengthening regional counterterrorism capabilities, enhancing and institutionalizing cooperation among the

region’s security forces, promoting democratic governance, discrediting terrorist ideology, and reinforcing bilateral military ties with the United States.”

○ Improving engagement with grassroots and Civil Society Organizations

Takeaways

1. Develop ways to combine SOF resources with DoS and implement framework based on TSCTP which would facilitate cooperation among local/regional governments.

1. Improve dialogue between local and national governments; trust and reconciliation.

Solution

Formal Construct

- Everyone needs to understand their role

- Common Understanding

- Synchronized Activities

- Centralized Command Structure

“During a crisis situation, the worst-case scenario is an overly bureaucratic

organization that cannot seem to “get out of their own way,” thus leading to loss of life

and property”

How do we build group cohesion?Centralized Incident Management System

Modeled after the current NIMS developed by the Department of Homeland Security

Objectives:PreparednessCommunications and Information ManagementResource ManagementCommand and ManagementOngoing Management and Maintenance

#1 Mission Clarity

Practice - It’s important that everyone is speaking the

same language

Success Story

MILITARY: Building Regional Capabilities

Each of these aspects contribute to a long-term vision AFRICOM shares with its African partners, building capabilities through sustained security

programs. OEF-Trans-Sahara is AFRICOM/SOCOM effort to:

•Build regional capacity

•Promote interoperability

•Strengthen Inter-regional cooperation in the trans-Sahara region

MILITARY: Building Regional Capabilities

Conventional: Done

SAHEL NATION CAPABILITY: Senegal – Mauritania – Mali - Burkina Faso – Niger – Nigeria - Chad -Sudan - Eritrea – Algeria

G5 Sahel joint force (FC-G5S):-Founded in mid-2017, G5 Sahel joint force (FC-G5S), a joint project undertaken by the five countries of the Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Chad)-This force is now backed by two UN Security Council resolutions and has its own headquarters . French have large force attached – 4000

Africa Union: 3 Brigade level standby units organized around regional African organizations. No SOF component.

Building Regional Capabilities

Rec: Regional Sector Security Reform (SSR)

-Centralize partnership training pipelines

-Give priority to a specific venue to set a region-wide Partner Nation focused on SOF. Few Sahel countries have units capable of facing the threats Sahel. -To integrate SOF Sahel into overall, such mission could be combined with the establishing of a Centre of Excellence for Counter Terrorism (Special Operations Forces)-AU has 22 centers of excellence ranging from logistics to language learning. This center of excellence could operate in a similar way to the NATO International Special Training Centre (ISTC)- AU LED Initiative - EU funded with French Leadership - Possible increase EU participation-Goal is to grow as an element for the African Standby Force. (Africa Union)Provide the Member States with training, advice, an academic setting for constant feedback in techniques, equipment, as well as an exchange forum.

Regional Economic Communities (RECs)

ECOWAS Sahel: 2015- Developed comprehensive data base initiative for Member States of Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria that are within the Sahel belt.

ECOWARN:The ECOWAS Early Warning and Response Network. An observation andmonitoring tool for conflict prevention and decision-making. ECOWARN database has extensive data on indicators of terrorism.

Economic Community of West African States(ECOWAS): ECOWAS was founded in 1975 with the primary objective of enabling economic integration of its member states. Its initial focus was on reducing tariffs between the member states and to ultimately allow for an Economic Union to form in the region. Organization has evolved into an institution with a focus on security commitments between the members and as an enforcement agency for external organizations.-Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)-Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD)

Research Based Recommendation

An apposite lines of effort that focus resources in a streamlined and coherent manner such that: training, coordination,

operations, and finance lines of effort are more effective and unified.

1. AU “Center of Excellence”2. Integration into REC data gathering and dissemination for early

warning systems3. Civ-Mil Integration: Incident Management System/ECOWARN

Engagement/CAO.

“More juice for the squeeze” -Trash

CMOCInter-AgencyNGOIGO

IMS drives focus & coordinates lines of effort

Discussion