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1 Capital Protect Create Wealth

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Page 1: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

1

Capital P

rote

ct

Cre

ate

Wealth

Page 2: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

“Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1.”

- Warren Buffet

2

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, But in the long term,

it is a weighing machine”

- Ben Graham

“Successful investing is about owning businesses and reaping the huge

rewards provided by the dividends and earnings growth”

- John Bogle

Page 3: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

We Protect Capital

3

• Unlevered portfolio • Continuous monitoring

of liquidity risk

Portfolio Liquidity

• Not averse to raise cash • Portfolio exposure increased

over a period

Staggered Approach

• Exposure limits to minimize risks o ≥ 50% in large cap USD1bn+ o ≤ 10% in one stock o ≤ 30% in one sector o ≤ 50% in the top 10 stocks o Minimum investments in 30 stocks

• Tactically switching to cash from time to time

Exposure Limits

• Diversification across industries • Diversification across Mcap with

focus on liquidity • Flexible investment style – Growth

as well as Value with focus on Margin of Safety

Investment Universe

A prudent risk management strategy is the core of our investment philosophy

• Sharp Price movement triggers review of stock

• Close eye on valuation with focus on Margin of Safety

Review Points

Page 4: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

We Create Wealth

3 Tenets to Equity investing Believe in ‘Time in the

Market’ rather than ‘Timing the market’

Growth as well as Value with focus on Margin of Safety

Diversification across sectors helps us to play sectoral

over/underweight strategy

Long term investment approach

Flexible investment style

Sectoral diversification

3M Stock Selection Approach

Identify Size of Sector Opportunity

Identify top 5 (Profitable) players in the sector

Identify the stock for investment with

Reasonable Valuation

M: Market Size

M: Market Share

M: Margin of Safety

4

Size of the opportunity should be huge to generate significant investment returns

The company be consistently profitable and should be among the leading players in the industry

The company should provide reasonable growth opportunity at reasonable Margin of Safety

Page 5: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

Wealth Creation – A Case Study

5

Global home textile segment of $74bn growing at 5% USA imports 17% made ups with imports growing at

~12% Huge opportunity to improve market share for Indian

players in USA and Europe

4th largest bed sheet exporter to USA & 13th largest globally

Capacity expansion from 36 to 68 mn meters in last 5 years and further expanding to 90 mn meters

Focus on improving value chain by entering premium bed linen segment leading to improved operating margins

No major investment in backward integration – leading to highest ROE of 44% in the industry

Reported healthy revenue and profit growth in last 5 years

Ongoing expansion will lead to healthy profit growth over next 2-3 years

Purchased at one year forward PE of ~6x significantly lower considering its net profit size (Rs 100 crs+ FY14) and 45% ROE

Indo Count Industries Ltd

India expected to become the 5th largest consumer durables market by 2025, reaching $400 Bn by 2020

Total Size of Indian A/C industry pegged at Rs.14750 Crs, with volume growth expectation of CAGR 13-15% over FY16-20E

At 3%, India is one of the lowest penetrated market, leading to significant headroom for growth

Market share of ~8% Entry into Tier 2&3 markets with sub premium product to

improve its market share Launched new products to reach mass consumer levels Strong parentage means access to new technology to

offer world class products to Indian consumers

Expect significant growth in profitability backed by operating efficiency and higher volume growth

Market cap at Rs 800 crs, i.e. PER of below 10x FY15E – lowest in the industry compared to all consumer MNC which trades at average PE of >20x

M1

M

arke

t si

ze

M2

M

arke

t Sh

are

M3

M

argi

n o

f sa

fety

Hitachi Home and Life Solutions Ltd

Investment Details

Purchase Price: Rs297 (19 Dec 2014) CMP: Rs984

Purchase Price: Rs300 (22 May 2014) CMP: Rs1400

Page 6: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

The Investment Process….

Stock Identification

Analysis & Decision making Process

Portfolio Construction Monitoring & Nurturing

Exiting & Realizing Value

• Identify emerging trends and opportunities from a universe of 450 companies • Filter approach – using variety of valuation parameters • Strong intermediary relationship

• Initial screening • Corporate meeting and detailed due diligence • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval

• Constant evaluation of valuation metrics to decide optimum return potential • Intrinsic value V/s Current Market Price to evaluate Margin of Safety • Change in underlying assumptions of investment thesis

• Combination of Top Down and Bottom Up approach with a benchmark agnostic strategy to achieve Long term investment objective

• Continuous portfolio monitoring ensures prudent risk management • Regular interaction to provide strategic inputs to strengthen systems, controls and CG

in line with best practices

6

Page 7: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

Leading To Multibagger Returns

7 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as per price mentioned

Stock Purchase

Date Purchase Price (Rs)

Price (Rs) 30-Jun-2016

Motherson Sumi 28-Jan-10 41 240

Eicher Motors* 08-Aug-13 3343 15249

Hitachi Life* 22-May-14 300 1360

Shree Cement 12-Nov-11 3983 14546

Indo Count Industries 19-Dec-14 297 967

Eveready* 29-Sep-14 102 302

Ramco Cements 28-Mar-14 213 554

Maruti Suzuki 29-Jan-14 1659 4187

Bayer Cropscience* 05-May-14 1427 3547

Welspun India* 09-Jan-14 80 198

Atlas Copco* 28-Jun-10 1115 2750

Timken India 22-May-14 233 567

Mannapuram Finance 16-Dec-15 29 69

ITD Cementation 23-Feb-15 65 135

KNR Construction* 03-Dec-14 304 608

3M India 24-Nov-14 6475 12823

CARE* 25-Mar-14 732 1447

HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1253

Siyaram Silk Mills 01-Aug-14 604 1128

HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1176

Capital Trust 29-Jun-15 253 443

L&T 11-Apr-13 869 1496

Alfa Laval India* 17-Nov-11 2246 3856

Capital First* 06-Nov-13 218 372

Gabriel India 01-Aug-14 55 94

Honeywell Automation 30-Jun-14 5790 9529

Balrampur Chini Mills 19-Nov-15 77 126

SQS india* 11-Apr-14 366 587

Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142 7997

ABB India 09-May-15 831 1224

Cholamandalam Investments 01-Mar-16 654 948

485%

356%

353%

265%

226%

196%

160%

152%

149%

148%

147%

143%

135%

108%

100%

98%

98%

87%

87%

76%

75%

72%

72%

71%

71%

65%

62%

60%

56%

47%

45%

Gain (%)

Page 8: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

8

Exit Strategy As Important As Entry Strategy

Fundamental Consistency check No. of BSE 500 Stocks

PAT growth 20%+ every year during FY06-FY15 0

Revenue growth of 10%+ every year with ROE 15%+ during FY06-15

16

Exit Strategy When target price of the stock is reached and the risk rewards

seems unfavorable

When change in business fundamentals resulting in negative earnings expectations

When weightage of the stock is higher than the desired allocation

When the other stock has better risk-reward

Exit from Sensex 01 Jan 2011 Vs

01 Jan 2001

Exit from Sensex 30 May 2016 vs

01 Jan 2011

ACC DLF

Ambuja Cement Hindalco

Bajaj Holdings Jaiprakash Associates

Castrol India JSPL

GSK Pharma Reliance Communication

Grasim Sterlite

HPCL Tata Power

MTNL

Novartis

Ranbaxy

Reliance Infra

Reliance Petro

Satyam

Zee

Page 9: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

Market Outlook

9

Page 10: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

Round Up – June 2016

If BrExit event was a negative surprise then bounce back of world equity markets to pre BrExit levels in just 5 trading session was equally a positive surprise. While a section of market compares BrExit with Lehman Brother event and its aftermath crisis in the world market, we do not think that its effect will be as bad as the pessimism prevails due to:

• It is likely to be a two year process

• To counter the negative effect, central banks across the world are likely to act swiftly to ensure lower volatility with joint

coordinated efforts

• Higher probability of US Fed postponing interest rate hike

• EU and other members of EU likely to take balanced approach to ensure that citizens do not press leave button

• Some probability of BrExit not going through in parliament

• There is always half in-half out possibility for Britain like Norway and Switzerland which means no major negative impact for UK.

Elsewhere globally, the USA GDP data for the Q1 grew at 1.1% up from earlier estimate of 0.8%. China’s manufacturing continue to be slow and in june it was in line with estimates. Overall economic conditions continue to remain weak in Q2.

India’s position surely is much better compared to many other economies, being it is less dependent on exports to UK (3.4% of total exports) and with comfortable forex reserves of USD 360 bn which is at all time high. While IIP data continues to remain volatile from last 4 months, clear trend shows that few sectors like consumer durables & electricity continues to remain in uptrend. Government approved Seventh pay commission and has recommended an 23.6% increase in salaries and pensions. The total amount to be paid, including the arrears, is expected to be approx. Rs85,900crs. This move is estimated to benefit nearly 10 mn employees and will boost consumption. Government sees some ray of hope for the GST bill to be passed in the forthcoming monsoon session of the parliament. Indian market has bounced back sharply in last four days on the above reforms.

While we remain positive on market with 2-3 years view, we expect it to remain volatile due to global factors. We are positive on consumer centric business – cement, consumer finance, consumer durable, consumer staple. The revival in capex is still some time away as capacity utilisation is ~72%, hence we prefer to be selective in infra/cap goods space. Slowdown in EU may adversely impact IT industry at least in the short term as BFSI contribution to IT revenue is 25-40% for most IT companies. Net-net we continue our stock specific approach and increasing equity allocation with each decline in market.

10

Page 11: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

Drivers of Growth – Investment By Government

11

Source: MORTH, AAA Research

Source: IDFC Research, AAA Research Source: Emkay Research , AAA Research

Source: Emkay Research, AAA Research

9900

2000 3621

7980 10000

25000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E

MORTH Project Awards

42

17

6

21

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

Railways Plan Expenditure growth Apr - Mar 2016(%)

Plan Capital Expenditure ahead of budgeted rate

Expenditure Head *FY16

(Rs.Tn) Growth(%)

%Budgeted Expenditure

(achievement in FY16YTD)

Total 17.7 7.8 99.3

Total Plan 4.7 3.8 98.7

Plan Revenue 3.2 -8.5 69.9

Plan Capital 1.4 49.7 101.2

Total Non - Plan 13.0 9.3 99.5

Non-Plan Revenue 12.1 10.1 99.8

Non-Plan capital 0.9 0.5 95.6

FY16 is from 01 Apr 2015 – 31 Mar 2016

Order inflow trend saw jump of 39% YoY

Page 12: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

Drivers of Growth – Consumption

12

Source: Elara Research, AAA Research

Page 13: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

Improving Macro Economic Factors

13

2.8 4.5

3.6

8.6 9.9

7.2 6.6

-3.1

2.8 4.3

5.5

10.0

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1Q

FY1

4

2Q

FY1

4

3Q

FY1

4

4Q

FY1

4

1Q

FY1

5

2Q

FY1

5

3Q

FY1

5

4Q

FY1

5

1Q

FY1

6

2Q

FY1

6

3Q

FY1

6

4Q

FY1

6

Cement Volume Growth (%)

Source: Antique Research, AAA Research

-3.0

-22.0 -25.0 -25.0

-21.0

-4.0

4.0 5.0 3.6

9.7 11.1

19.6

-30-25-20-15-10

-505

10152025

1Q

FY1

4

2Q

FY1

4

3Q

FY1

4

4Q

FY1

4

1Q

FY1

5

2Q

FY1

5

3Q

FY1

5

4Q

FY1

5

1Q

FY1

6

2Q

FY1

6

3Q

FY1

6

4Q

FY1

6

Total CV Growth (%)

Source: Antique Research, AAA Research

1.4

-0.3

0.8 1.6

4.4 4.6 3.5

5.4 6.6

11.0 11.1

14.7

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1Q

FY1

4

2Q

FY1

4

3Q

FY1

4

4Q

FY1

4

1Q

FY1

5

2Q

FY1

5

3Q

FY1

5

4Q

FY1

5

1Q

FY1

6

2Q

FY1

6

3Q

FY1

6

4Q

FY1

6

Fuel Consumption Growth(%)

Source: Antique Research, AAA Research Source: Elara Research, AAA Research

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50

Mar

-12

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

De

c-1

2

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

De

c-1

3

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

De

c-1

4

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

De

c-1

5

Mar

-16

Ind

ex

(% Y

oY)

Naukri Employment Index

YoY Change (LHS) Index (RHS)

Page 14: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

Improving Macro Economic Factors

14

Source: Emkay Research, AAA Research Source: Elara Research, AAA Research

Source: Elara Research, AAA Research

-0.5

6.0

1.3

3.5

5.6

11.4

9.0

0.7

3.1

6.6

9.6

11.8

14.6

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Power Generation Volumes (%)

8.9

1.1

3.5

0.6 1

13.1

5.9

10.3

2.9 3.1 2.6

4.7

1.1

9.4

2.8

9.9

3.5

-3.6

1.6 0.9 1.9

7.5

13

4.4

9.5

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4

Oct

-14

De

c-1

4

Feb

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jun

-15

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-15

De

c-1

5

Feb

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Port Volumes (%)

2

19

32

39

7 9

12 11 9

6 9

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Q1

FY1

4

Q2

FY1

4

Q3

FY1

4

Q4

FY1

4

Q1

FY1

5

Q2

FY1

5

Q3

FY1

5

Q4

FY1

5

Q1

FY1

6

Q2

FY1

6

Q3

FY1

6

Q4

FY1

6

Traffic Growth (%)

Page 15: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

India Economy Recovery: Likely Repeat of FY03-08

15

Source: RBI, AAA Research

Source: CSO,MOSL, AAA Research

4.2

5.4

3.8

8.0 7.1

9.5 9.6 9.3

6.7

8.6 8.9

6.7

4.5 4.7

7.3 7.6 7.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E

GDP Growth (%)

Average GDP: 7.0%

5.0

2.7

5.7 7.0

11.7

8.6

12.9

15.5

2.5

5.3

8.2

2.9

1.1

-0.1

2.8 2.4

5.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E

IIP Growth (%)

Average IIP: 5.9%

Page 16: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

Dissecting the economic recovery of FY03-08

27%

40% 39.7%

16%

31%

47.9%

26%

90%

47.3%

23%

11%

26.1%

53%

65%

45.8%

33%

60%

72.3%

43%

62%

22.0%

32%

73%

54.4%

17.6%

15.6%

52.2%

21% 21%

26.6% 25%

38.7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

PA

T

Mca

p

Auto Banking Cement ConsumerFMCG

ConsumerDurables

Engineering IT Mining &Metal

Oil & Gas Pharma Sensex

Sectoral CAGR FY03-08 (%)

Source: BSE, AAA Research

Sensex Net profit CAGR: 25.0% Sensex Returns CAGR : 38.7%

Market Cap Returns > Net Profit Growth

16

Page 17: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

BSE Auto BSE Banking BSEConsumer

Durable

BSE CapitalGoods

BSE FMCG BSEHealthcare

BSE IT BSE Metal Sensex

5.3x

6.6x

3.3x 3.2x 2.7x

8.7x

15x

7x

5.1x

Source: BSE

Sensex went up by 5.1x Cyclical indices went up by 5-15x

Dissecting The Economic Recovery Of FY03-08

17

Page 18: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

Focus on Stock Earnings Growth - Earnings Growth To Bounce Back

18

81 129 181

250 266 291 278 280 216 236 272

348 450

523

718 833 820 834

1,024 1,124

1,183

1,340 1,355 1,340

1,580

1,864

FY93

FY94

FY95

FY96

FY97

FY98

FY99

FY00

FY01

FY0

2

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY1

7E

FY18

E

FY93-96 EPS CAGR 45%

FY96-03: EPS CAGR 1%

FY03-08 25% CAGR

FY08-16 6.1% CAGR

FY16E-18E 18% CAGR

Sensex CAGR -1.4%

Sensex CAGR 38.7%

Sensex CAGR

5%

Sensex CAGR

??

Sensex CAGR 13.9%

After reporitng single digit earnings growth (FY08-16), Sensex is expected to report healthy double digit growth (FY16-18E)

Source: Bloomberg , AAA Research

Page 19: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

Market Valuations

Source: Bloomberg, AAA Research

19

Sensex @26999 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E EPS (Rs) 833 821 826 1,013 1,123 1,185 1,340 1,355 1,340 1,580 1,864

EPS G(%) 16% -1% 1% 23% 10% 6% 13% 1% -1% 18% 18%

BV (Rs) 3,787 4,441 5,101 5,944 6,842 7,790 8,862 9,540 10,143 10,775 11,521

P/E(x) 24.8 23.5 20.1 19.9 20.1 17.1 14.5

P/BV(x) 3.7 3.8 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.3

ROE(%) 22.0% 18.5% 16.2% 17.0% 16.4% 15.2% 15.1% 14.2% 13.2% 14.7% 16.2%

Source: AAA Research Source: AAA Research

7

12

17

22

27

Jun

-06

Jun

-07

Jun

-08

Jun

-09

Jun

-10

Jun

-11

Jun

-12

Jun

-13

Jun

-14

Jun

-15

Jun

-16

P/E Fwd (x)

P/E Fwd(x)

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

3.8

4.3

4.8

5.3

Jun

-06

Jun

-07

Jun

-08

Jun

-09

Jun

-10

Jun

-11

Jun

-12

Jun

-13

Jun

-14

Jun

-15

Jun

-16

P/B Fwd (x)

P/B Fwd(x)

Mean 2.7x Mean 16.7x

Page 20: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

The people running the show at AlfAccurate Advisors

20

Page 21: Capital t e Wealth - alfaccurate.comalfaccurate.com/pdf/JUN16-AAA-PMS.pdf · Diversification across sectors ... Wealth Creation – A Case Study 5 ... Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 5142

The AlfAccurate Advisors Team

21

Rajesh Kothari Govind Agrawal

Founder and Managing Director Director

Bhushan Koli

Head Operations and Compliance

Bhushan Koli

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Award Winning Investment Team

Mr. Rajesh Kothari – Managing Director (Grad CWA, MBA)

Rich experience of more than 20 years in Indian capital market

Expertise in both Long Only & Long Short investment strategy

Former Director with Voyager Investment Advisors (US$500m) – USA based India dedicated

fund for two and half years

During his tenure, fund Outperformed the benchmark indices significantly

Former Fund Manager with DSP Merrill Lynch (now DSP Blackrock) Fund Managers Ltd for

more than four years

During his tenure equity assets under management grew from USD100m to USD1.5bn

The schemes delivered annualized return of 55% (Equity Fund) & 62% (Top100 Fund) outperforming

benchmark indices by more than 20% & 10% respectively

The equity schemes maintained its “1st Quartile Ranking” consistently during his tenure

22

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Achievements:

Rated as “Platinum Fund Manager” by Economic Times for DSP ML Equity Fund on a risk-adjusted return

basis in July 2006

Rated as “Gold Fund Manager” by Economic Times for DSP ML Balanced Fund on a risk-adjusted return

basis in July 2006

Received CMA Young Achiever Award 2014

CNBC TV18 - CRISIL Mutual Fund of the Year Award 2006 for DSPML Equity Fund

Lipper India Fund Awards 2006 for best equity fund group for 3 years

DSPML Technology.com Fund - best fund in the equity sector in the IT category (5 years, 8 eligible schemes)

He was invited at Maharashtra Economic Summit to present views on Indian Infrastructure

(http: //maharashtrasummit.mieda.in/Program.aspx)

Invited by Institute of Directors to present views on Governance Deficit

Invited by World Council for Corporate Governance to present views on Governance

Elected on the advisory panel of World CSR forum.

Actively involved with Arham Yuva Group - a philanthropic initiative

Award Winning Investment Team

23

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Glimpses Of Superior Performance To Benchmark Index

24

*(FY10 is from 23 Nov 2009 - 31 Mar 2010) #(1 April 2016 – 30 Jun 2016)

Note: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future

Consistent Superior returns to Benchmark Index

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000220024002600

FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 Jun06-Dec08

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17YTD#

Funds managed by Rajesh(%) BSE 500 Index(%)

27.9% CAGR

13.2% CAGR

-50

0

50

100

150

FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 Jun06-08 FY10* FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17YTD#

DSP MerillLynch MF Voyager AlfAccurate Advisors

Funds Managed by Rajesh Benchmark Index

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Mr. Govind Agrawal – Director (FCA – Chartered Accountant, LLB)

Rich experience of 28 years in finance out of which last 21 years in Indian capital market

Former Fund Manager with Reliance Capital Asset Management Company (USD 20bn) for

over four years.

Reliance Emergent India Fund (USD 100m offshore fund) outperformed benchmark indices by 35%

since its inception.

Travelled intensely across globe to meet the investors and presented the firm for India and Emerging

Market as Investment Theme

Played instrumental role in setting up Macro Economic Research desk

Former Executive Director with UBS Securities India P Ltd, a Swiss Bank subsidiary, for 4 years

Responsible for India Account Manager for large FIIs

Guided the portfolio managers for right country, sectors and stocks weightings

Award Winning Investment Team

25

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Former Senior VP – Equity Sales with Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd for 10 years

Played key role in establishing institutional equity broking business, systems and processes

Was account manager for major institutional domestic and foreign accounts advising the clients on sectoral allocation

and stock selection

Achievements

Represented Reliance AMC on international platforms and panel discussion on Emerging Markets and Indian

Equity Market

Addressed investors’ meet and the private banking teams of large banks in Middle East, Asia, London,

Europe and in India

At UBS, was voted as the “Best Equity Sales Person‐Mega Funds category, Asia Money 2006”

Won several awards at Motilal Oswal for consistently contributing to Institutional Equity Sales

26

Award Winning Investment Team

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The AlfAccurate Advisors philosophy

27

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AlfAccurate Advisors

To be the world’s most admired investment advisor

We are specialists in Indian capital markets with combined experience of 70+ years

Protect Capital , Create Wealth

28

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Our Guiding Principles

Ambition

Entrepreneurship

Accountability

Passion

Excellence

Commitment

Teamwork

Integrity

Meritocracy

29

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Investment Philosophy...

30

Fundamental Research core of our investment management

Long Term Horizon

Constant endeavor to be ahead of the Market

Emphasis on value research Vs commodity research

Benchmark aware but not driven

Flexible investment style

Focus on margin safety

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Combined With Investment Discipline...

Parameter Rules Current Position

Cap Exposure At least 50% in large cap(More than USD1bn) 55% invested in large cap

Sector Weightage Not more than 30% in one sector Maximum exposure in a given sector is 22.1%

Stock Weightage Not more than 10% in a given stock and not more than 50% in the top 10 Stocks

Maximum Exposure in a given stock is 5.0%. Top 10 stocks as percentage of portfolio is 27.8%

Number of Stocks Minimum 30 Stocks 60 stocks

Stock Universe 450 Corporates 450 Corporates

Number of Stocks :60, Number of Sectors :16 Top 10 Stocks as % of portfolio : 28.3% Data as on 30 Jun 2016 31

55%

25%

16%

4%

Portfolio Allocation

Large Mid Small Cash

Sectoral Allocation

Auto Auto Ancillary Banking CementChemicals Construction Consumer EngineeringOil & Gas Others Pharma PowerSoftware Sugar Textiles Cash & Cash Equivalent

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Leading To Superior Performance

Performance (%) FY17YTD# FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 Since Inception*

AAA India Opp. Plan 10.3 2.8 71.9 29.0 11.7 9.7 18.2 285.9

BSE 500 Index 8.3 (7.8) 33.2 17.1 4.8 (9.1) 7.5 65.6

BSE Sensex 6.5 (9.4) 24.9 18.8 8.2 (10.5) 10.9 57.2

S&P CNX NIFTY 7.1 (8.9) 26.7 17.9 7.3 (9.2) 11.1 62.4

*(23 Nov 2009 – 30 Jun 2016)(Management fees adjusted); #(1 April 2016 – 30 Jun 2016)

AAA India Opp. plan consistently not only outperformed but also generated Positive return in volatile markets

Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments

32

18.2 9.7 11.7

29

71.9

2.8 10.3 7.5

-9.1

4.8

17.1

33.2

-7.8

8.3

-20

0

20

40

60

80

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17YTD#

AAA India Opportunity Plan - Equity Vs BSE 500 Index (%)

AAA India Opportunity Plan - Equity BSE 500 Index

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Leading To Superior Performance

33

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Leading To Superior Performance

34

AAA India Opp Plan ranks # 1 compared with 141 diversified funds of each reputed fund house Since Inception of AAA: *(23 Nov 2009 – 30 Jun 2016 )(Management fees adjusted)

Performance Vs leading Mutual Funds Since Inception(%)

Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments

Source: Bloomberg

Compounded Annual Returns (%)

1 YEAR 2 YEARS 3 YEARS 5 YEARS Since Inception*

AAA India Opp. Plan 8.3 22.9 35.0 24.6 23.1

BSE 500 Index 1.2 6.1 15.5 8.7 8.1

BSE Sensex (2.8) 3.1 11.7 7.5 7.2

S&P CNX NIFTY (1.0) 4.3 12.4 8.0 7.7

285.9

158.8

110.5 87.5

48.3 65.6 57.2 62.4

AAA India Opp.Plan*

Quartile 1 Quartile 2 Quartile 3 Quartile 4 BSE 500 Index BSE Sensex S&P CNX Nifty

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Note: Equity return scenarios are assumed expected returns.

The Power Of Compounding – A Scenario Analysis

35

Scenarios based on investment of Rs 5 Crores

The real power of compounding is seen only over the long term

12% CAGR 15% CAGR 20% CAGR

30Yrs

150 Cr

9 Cr

20Yrs 5Yrs 10Yrs

16 Cr

48 Cr

331 Cr

20 Cr

5Yrs

82 Cr

20Yrs 30Yrs 10Yrs

10 Cr

10Yrs 30Yrs

717 Cr

20Yrs

137 Cr

26 Cr

5Yrs

11 Cr

30Yrs 20Yrs

1,187 Cr

5Yrs

31 Cr

192 Cr

10Yrs

12 Cr

18% CAGR

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Why We Should Be Your Choice Of Investment Advisory

36

Strong domain knowledge in Indian Capital markets

Expertise in both – Long Only and Long Short Investment Strategy

Sound Research capabilities

Award winning investment team and track record Process driven organization

Adequate infrastructure to support scalability

Integrity and ethics as the core of the business

Access to Founders – founders are fund managers

Staggered investment approach

Client centric business model

No conflict of interest

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Product Features

37

Name of plan AAA India Opportunity Equity PMS Plan

Objective Long Term Capital Appreciation

Investment Theme To invest in listed companies with combination of high growth stocks as well as value stocks

Principal Officer Rajesh Kothari

Director Govind Agrawal

Custodians Deutsche Bank, India

Fund Accountant Deutsche Bank, India

Depository Participant IL&FS, India

Mode of payment Fund transfer/cheque/stock transfer

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Awards and Recognitions

38

Dr. Jitendra Singh, Union Minister of State (I/C), Prime Minister Office, giving Certificate of Merit – CMA Young Achiever Award – 2014.

Lipper Fund Award – India 2007

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39

Thank You Rajesh Kothari T: +91 22 42360301 M:+91 98200 09226 [email protected]

Govind Agrawal T: +91 22 42360 311 M: +91 93208 51013 [email protected]

AlfAccurate Advisors Pvt. Ltd 503, B Wing, Naman Midtown, Elphinstone Road, Mumbai - 400 013, India T: +91 22 42360300; F: +91 22 42360333 [email protected] www.alfaccurate.com

Disclaimer: Equity Investments are subject to market risks , read all plan related documents carefully. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient. The material is based upon publicly available information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without AlfAccurate Advisors Pvt Ltd.'s prior written consent. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Alfaccurate Advisors Pvt. Ltd and any person connected with the firm, does not accept any liability arising from the use of this document.

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