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Capital in the 21st century
Thomas PikettyParis School of Economics
Zagreb, April 9 2015
• This presentation is based upon Capital in the 21st century (Harvard University Press, March 2014)
• This book studies the global dynamics of income and wealth distribution since 18c in 20+ countries; I use historical data collected over the past 15 years with Atkinson, Saez, Postel-Vinay, Rosenthal, Alvaredo, Zucman, and 30+ others; I try to shift attention from rising income inequality to rising wealth inequality
• The book includes four parts: Part 1. Income and capitalPart 2. The dynamics of the capital/income ratioPart 3. The structure of inequalitiesPart 4. Regulating capital in the 21st century
• In this presentation I will present some results from Parts 2 & 3, focusing upon the long-run evolution of capital/income ratios and wealth concentration (all graphs and series are available on line:
see http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c )
This presentation: three points• 1. The long-run dynamics of income inequality. The end
of the Kuznets curve, the end of universal laws. Country-specific institutions and policies matter.
• 2. The return of a patrimonial (or wealth-based) society in the Old World (Europe, Japan). Wealth-income ratios seem to be returning to very high levels in low growth countries. The metamorphosis of capital.
• 3. The future of wealth concentration: with high r - g during 21c (r = net-of-tax rate of return, g = growth rate), then wealth inequality might reach or surpass 19c oligarchic levels. Need for for more transparency.
• Three facts about inequality in the long-run: income inequality, wealth-inequality, wealth-income ratios
(Piketty-Saez, « Inequality in the long run », Science 2014)
• Fact n°1: in 1900-1910, income inequality was higher in Europe than in the United States; in 2000-2010, it is a lot higher in the United States
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Shar
e of
top
inco
me
deci
le in
tota
l pre
tax
inco
me
(dec
enni
al a
vera
ges)
The share of total income accruing to top decile income holders was higher in Europe than in the U.S. around 1900-1910; it is a lot higher in the U.S. than in Europe around 2000-2010.
Sources and series: see piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c (fig.9,8)
Figure 1. Income inequality: Europe and the U.S., 1900-2010
Top 10% income share: Europe
Top 10% income share: U.S.
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Sha
re o
f top
dec
ile in
nat
iona
l inc
ome
The top decile share in U.S. national income dropped from 45-50% in the 1910s-1920s to less than 35% in the 1950s (this is the fall documented by Kuznets); it then rose from less than 35% in the 1970s to 45-50% in the 2000s-2010s.
Sources and series: see
Figure I.1. Income inequality in the United States, 1910-2012
Share of top decile in total income (including capital gains)
Excluding capital gains
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Shar
e of
top
inco
me
deci
le in
tota
l pre
tax
inco
me
(dec
enni
al a
vera
ges)
The share of total income accruing to top decile income holders was higher in Europe than in the U.S. around 1900-1910; it is a lot higher in the U.S. than in Europe around 2000-2010.
Sources and series: see piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c (fig.9,8)
Figure 1. Income inequality: Europe and the U.S., 1900-2010
Top 10% income share: Europe
Top 10% income share: U.S.
19001901190219031904190519061907190819091910191119121913191419151916191719181919192019211922192319241925192619271928192919301931193219331934193519361937193819391940194119421943194419451946194719481949195019511952195319541955195619571958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201025%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%Top 10% Income Share: Europe, U.S. and Japan, 1900-2010
U.S.
Europe
Japan
The top decile income share was higher in Europe than in the U.S. in 1900-1910; it is a lot higher in the U.S. in 2000-2010. Sources and series: see piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c.
Sh
are
of t
op
de
cile
in to
tal i
nco
me
• The rise in US inequality in recent decades is mostly due to rising inequality of labor income
• It is due to a mixture of reasons: changing supply and demand for skills; race between education and technology; globalization; more unequal to access to skills in the US (rising tuitions, insufficient public investment); unprecedented rise of top managerial compensation in the US (changing incentives, cuts in top income tax rates); falling minimum wage in the US
institutions and policies matter
This presentation: three points• 1. The long-run dynamics of income inequality. The end of the Kuznets curve, the end of universal laws.
• 2. The return of a patrimonial (or wealth-based) society in the Old World (Europe, Japan). Wealth-income ratios seem to be returning to very high levels in low growth countries. Intuition: in a slow-growth society, wealth accumulated in the past can naturally become very important. In the very long run, this can be relevant for the entire world. Not bad in itself, but new challenges. The metamorphosis of capital call for new regulations of property relations.
• 3. The future of wealth concentration: with high r - g during 21c, then wealth inequality might reach or surpass 19c oligarchic levels.
• Fact n°2: wealth inequality is always a lot higher than income inequality; it is now higher in the US than in Europe
• Fact n°3: wealth inequality is less extreme today than a century ago in Europe, although the total capitalization of private wealth relative to national income has now recovered from the 1914-1945 shocks
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Shar
e of
top
wea
lth d
ecile
in to
tal n
et w
ealth
(dec
enni
al a
vera
ges)
The share of total net wealth belonging to top decile wealth holders has become higher in the US than in Europe over the course of the 20th century. But it is still smaller than what it was in Europe before World War 1.
Sources and series: see piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c (fig.10,6)
Figure 2. Wealth inequality: Europe and the U.S., 1870-2010
Top 10% wealth share: Europe
Top 10% wealth share: U.S.
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Tota
l mar
ket v
alue
of n
et p
rivat
e w
ealth
(% n
atio
nal i
ncom
e)(d
ecen
nial a
vera
ges)
Total net private wealth was worth about 6-7 years of national income in Europe prior to World War 1, down to 2-3 years in 1950-1960, back up to 5-6 years in 2000-2010. In the US, the U-shapped pattern was much less marked.
Sources and series: see piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c (fig.5,1)
Figure 3. Wealth-income ratios: Europe and the U.S., 1900-2010
Europe
U.S.
The metamorphosis of capital
• There’s nothing bad with high wealth-income ratios (postwar reconstruction, growth slowdown), but this creates new policy challenges: financial regulation, real estate bubbles, return of inheritance
A multidimensional approach to the history of capital and property relations: from land to business assets, foreign assets, real estate, public debt, immaterial capital, etc.
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
Figure S5.2. Private capital in rich countries: from the Japanese to the Spanish bubble
U.S.A Japan Germany
France U.K. Italy
Canada Australia Spain
Private capital almost reached 8 years of national income in Spain at the end of the 2000s (ie. one more year than Japan in 1990). Sources and series: see piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c.
Va
lue
of
pri
vate
ca
pita
l (%
of
na
tion
al i
nco
me
)
Capital & inequality in America• Inequality in America = a different structure as in Europe:
more egalitarian in some ways, more inegalitarian in others• The New World in the 19th century: the land of opportunity
(capital accumulated in the past matters less than in Europe; perpetual pop. growth as a way to reduce the level of inherited wealth and wealth concentration)… and also the land of slavery: extreme form of property relation
• Northern US were in many ways more egalitarian than Old Europe; but Southern US were more inegalitarian
• We still have the same ambiguous relationship of America with inequality today: in some ways more merit-based; in other ways more violent (« meritocratic extremism »)
Capital & inequality in Germany• Lower market values of capital assets in Germany: lower
real estate prices, and lower stock market capitalization of corporations
• Stakeholder capitalism: shareholders have to share power with worker representatives, regional govt, etc., so that the market value is much less than book value of corporation
• Apparently this does not prevent German companies from producing good cars
• This clearly illustrates that market and social values of capital can differ; property relations are socially, legally and historically determined
This presentation: three points• 1. The long-run dynamics of income inequality. The end of the Kuznets curve, the end of universal laws. Country-specific institutions and policies matter.
• 2. The return of a patrimonial (or wealth-based) society in the Old World (Europe, Japan). Wealth-income ratios seem to be returning to very high levels in low growth countries.
• 3. The future of wealth concentration: with high r - g during 21c (r = net-of-tax rate of return, g = growth rate), then wealth inequality might reach or surpass 19c oligarchic levels. Conversely, suitable institutions can allow to democratize wealth. Strong need for more transparency about global wealth dynamics and cross-border financial assets, in rich countries as well as in emerging countries (China, Latin America, Africa).
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Shar
e of
top
wea
lth d
ecile
in to
tal n
et w
ealth
(dec
enni
al a
vera
ges)
The share of total net wealth belonging to top decile wealth holders has become higher in the US than in Europe over the course of the 20th century. But it is still smaller than what it was in Europe before World War 1.
Sources and series: see piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c (fig.10,6)
Figure 2. Wealth inequality: Europe and the U.S., 1870-2010
Top 10% wealth share: Europe
Top 10% wealth share: U.S.
Conclusions• The history of income and wealth inequality is deeply political,
social and cultural; it involves beliefs systems, national identities and sharp reversals
• In a way, both Marx and Kuznets were wrong: there are powerful forces pushing in the direction of rising or reducing inequality; which one dominates depends on the institutions and policies that different societies choose to adopt
• High r-g can push toward high wealth concentration, but many other forces are also important
• The ideal solution: progressive taxation, social state, financial transparency, economic democracy
• Other solutions involve authoritarian political & capital controls (China, Russia), or perpetual population growth (US)
• US high-inequality trap: oligarchic capture, or lack of historical experience with oligarchy ?
Supplementary slides
(long lecture version)
The return of a wealth-based society• Wealth = capital K = everything we own and that can be sold on a market (net
of all debts) (excludes human K, except in slave societies)
• In textbooks, wealth-income & capital-ouput ratios are supposed to be constant. But the so-called « Kaldor facts » actually rely on little historical evidence.
• In fact, we observe in Europe & Japan a large recovery of β=K/Y in recent
decades: β=200-300% in 1950-60s → β=500-600% in 2000-10s (i.e. average wealth K was about 2-3 years of average income Y around 1950-1960; it is
about 5-6 years in 2000-2010) (with β≈600%, if Y≈30 000€ per capita, then K≈180 000€ per capita) (currently, K ≈ half real estate, half financial assets)
Are we heading back to the β=600-700% observed in the wealth-based societies of 18c-19c ? Or even more?
• The simplest way to think about this is the following: in the long-run, β=s/g with s = (net-of-depreciation) saving rate
and g = economy’s growth rate (population + productivity)
With s=10%, g=3%, β≈300%; but if s=10%, g=1,5%, β≈600%
= in slow-growth societies, the total stock of wealth accumulated in the past can naturally be very important
→ capital is back because low growth is back (in particular because population growth↓0)→ in the long run, this can be relevant for the entire planet
Note: β=s/g = pure stock-flow accounting identity; it is true whatever the combination of saving motives
• Will the rise of capital income-ratio β also lead to a rise of the capital share α in national income?
• If the capital stock equals β=6 years of income and the average return to capital is equal r=5% per year, then the share of capital income (rent, dividends, interest, profits, etc.) in national income equals α = r x β = 30%
• Technically, whether a rise in β also leads to a rise in capital share α = r β depends on the elasticity of substitution σ between capital K and labor L in the production function Y=F(K,L)
• Intuition: σ measures the extent to which workers can be replaced by machines (e.g. Amazon’s drones)
• Standard assumption: Cobb-Douglas production function (σ=1) = as the stock β↑, the return r↓ exactly in the same proportions, so that α = r x β remains unchanged, like by magic = a stable world where the capital-labor split is entirely set by technology
• But if σ>1, then the return to capital r↓ falls less than the volume of capital β↑, so that the product α = r x β ↑
• Exactly what happened since the 1970s-80s: both the ratio β and the capital share α have increased
• With a large rise in β, one can get large rise in α with a production function F(K,L) that is just a little bit more substituable than in the standard Cobb-Douglas model (say if σ=1,5 instead of 1)
• Maybe it is natural to expect σ↑over the course of history: more and more diversified uses for capital; extreme case: pure robot-economy (σ=infinity)
• Less extreme case: there are many possible uses for capital (machines can replace cashiers, drones can replace Amazon’s delivery workers, etc.), so that the capital share α↑ continuously; there’s no natural corrective mechanism for this
• The rise of β and α can be a good thing (we could all devote more time to culture, education, health…, rather than to our own subsistance), assuming one can answer the following question: who owns the robots?
The future of wealth concentration• In all European countries (UK, France, Sweden…), wealth concentration was
extremely high in 18c-19c & until WW1: about 90% of aggregate wealth for top 10% wealth holders about 60% of aggregate wealth for top 1% wealth-holders = the classic patrimonial (wealth-based) society: a minority lives off its wealth,
while the rest of the populaton works (Austen, Balzac)
• Today wealth concentration is still very high, but less extreme: about 60-70% for top 10%; about 20-30% for top 1% the bottom 50% still owns almost nothing (<5%) but the middle 40% now owns 20-30% of aggregate wealth = the rise of a patrimonial middle class
• How did it happen, and will it last? Will the patrimonial middle class expend, or will it shrink?
• Key finding: there was no decline in wealth concentration prior to World War shocks; was it just due to shocks?
• Q.: Apart from shocks, what forces determine the long-run level of wealth concentration?
• A.: In any dynamic, multiplicative wealth accumulation model with random individual shocks (tastes, demographic,returns, wages,..), the steady-state level of wealth concentration is an increasing function of r - g
(with r = net-of-tax rate of return and g = growth rate) • With growth slowdown and rising tax competition to attract
capital, r - g might well rise in the 21c → back to 19c levels• Future values of r also depend on technology (σ>1?) • Under plausible assumptions, wealth concentration might
reach or surpass 19c record levels: see global wealth rankings
Capital & inequality in America• Inequality in America = a different structure as in Europe:
more egalitarian in some ways, more inegalitarian in some other dimensions
• The New World in the 19th century: the land of opportunity (capital accumulated in the past mattered much less than in Europe; perpetual demographic growth as a way to reduce the level of inherited wealth and wealth concentration)… and also the land of slavery
• Northern US were in many ways more egalitarian than Old Europe; but Southern US were more inegalitarian
• We still have the same ambiguous relationship of America with inequality today: in some ways more merit-based; in other ways more violent (« meritocratic extremism »)
• The US distribution of income has become more unequal than in Europe over the course of the 20th century; it is now as unequal as pre-WW1 Europe
• But the structure of inequality is different: US 2013 has less wealth inequality than Europe 1913, but higher inequality of labor income
• Higher inequality of labor income in the US could reflect higher inequality in education investment; but it also reflects a huge rise of top executive compensation that it very hard to explain with education and productivity reasonning alone
• In the US, this is sometime described as more merit-based: the rise of top labor incomes makes it possible to become rich with no inheritance (≈Napoleonic prefets)
• Pb = this can be the worst of all worlds for those who are neither top income earners nor top successors: they are poor, and they are depicted as dump & undeserving (at least, nobody was trying to depict Ancien Regime inequality as fair)
• It is unclear whether rise of top incomes has a lot to do with merit or productivity: sharp decline in top tax rates & rise of CEO bargaining power are more convincing explanations; chaotic US history of social norms regarding inequality
