Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
2
Introduction
2
Currency Risk• Rand / Dollar exchange rate
RAIL Performance• RBCT Channel• Eskom Power supply
Port Performance• RB1 grade constraint
for Junior Miners
Economics• Coal prices • Oil Prices • GDP growth • Cleaner coal • Coal availability • Eskom Coal Supply
2014/15 – Proving to be an extremely challenging year
3
The Export Coal Performance is showing an upward trend despite current market conditions
332826 3231212019 25242322
1,80
1,50
1,20
0,90535251504948474645444342414039383736352718 3029 3416151413121110987654321 17
Actual tempo
Required tempo to meet budgetAverage Budgeted Tempo
77,000
2015/16 budget
2014/15
76,000
2013/14
68,195
2012/13
69,209
2011/12
67,705
2010/11
62,626
+11%
Current Trend Analysis – Rail Volumes Million tons per week
Annual Trend Analysis – Rail Volumes Million tons per FY
Key Success Factors▪ Increased security to reduce cable theft▪ Increased reliability of rolling stock & network▪ Better collaboration from pit to port▪ Proactive deviation management and improved
response times▪ Regular tracking of system balance and actual
position of locos and wagons to avoid bunching▪ Maintaining high balance of the system in order to
create a buffer for potential disruptions▪ High commitment of the cross-functional teams
4
To achieve 77Mt by end March, we need to maintain weekly tempo of 1.68Mt until week 45 and 1.73Mt from week 46
High Variability
22
20
10
26
60
21 24 2516 43
40
020
70
4619
80
382827 3029 3231 3423 3635 37
50
403318
30
17
1.4
1.5
47
1.6
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.8
41 4239 525150494845
1.7
44
1.68Mt
1.73Mt
1.52Mt
Week
Cumulative capacity assuming bad weeks and occupationsMt per week (Average trains per day)
1.61Mt
Weekly volumes to-dateCumulative volume
Average to-date 1Forecasted weekly volumes
Target step-up volume
Current week
Daily required # trains planned/day
Ermelo trains trains3
28.0 1.24
Natal trains andPanbult4
29.12 1.3 30.0 1.32
• Coal Availability • Stockpile capacity at
Port
5
Existing Coal Railway System
Waterberg Feeder
Coal Backbone System
(North of Ermelo)
Coal Export Line(South of Ermelo)
Swazi Link System
Coalfields
Constraints
Springbok FlatsCoal Fields
Lephalale
Musina
Lothair
Maputo
Komatiepoort
Ermelo
OgiesPyramid
Broodsnyersplaas
Richards Bay
CFMWaterberg < 30mtpa
Limpopo Coal Fields
Waterberg Coal Fields
MpumalangaCoal Fields
200 wagon26t/axle 25 kV AC
100 wagon20t/axle Diesel
100 wagon20t/axle Diesel
Thabazimbi
100 wagon20t/axle 25 kV AC
100 wagon20t/axle 3 kV DC
Turf
Tunnel
Horse shoe
50 wagon20t/axle 3 kV DC
Limpopo Coal & Mineral Feeders
7 Transnet Projects
• Waterberg
• RichCor 81Mtpa
• Shongololo
• 2nd Overvaal Tunnel
• Swazi Link
• Navitrade RBTG
• Maputo/LCM Increase Capacity
• Expansion and Sustaining Capital
• Efficiency Levers• TVCC – Transnet value
Chain Co ordination• Lean ; Six Sigma• Pit to Port
Waterberg ProjectUpgrade the existing rail infrastructure to accommodate initially an additional 2 x 100-wagon trains and eventually 6 x 200-wagon traversing from Lephalale to Ermelo to connect to with the coal line going to Richards Bay
Why the Waterberg Coalfields?
Waterberg Coalfields• 40% of South Africa’s remaining coal reserves• Strategic shift from Mpumalanga
9
Waterberg Project Stages
Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
StatusFEL 3 –feasibility Engineering
FEL 3 – feasibility Engineering
FEL 3 –feasibility Engineering
FEL 3 –feasibility Engineering
Capacity 6.3 mtpa 12.6 mtpa 24 mtpa 24mtpa
Broad Scope of Work
• Loop extension and doubling of line to provide 3 x 100 wagon trains at 3 locations
• New Lephalale Yard for 100W trains
• Lengthening of loops at 6 locations for 3 x 200W trains
• Completion of the Lephalale Yard for 200W trains
• Upgrade of substations (6) from single to double units
New loops & extended loops of 6 x 200W trains with mixed diesel/electric locomotives (100 Electric and 100 Diesel) at (4) locations
• Electrification of the Lephalale to Thabazimbi.
• Operate 6 x 200W trains with distributed power (DP) using dual power AC/DC locomotives from mine to destination without any locomotive change over at either Thabazimbi or Pyramid South.
Completion2015/16 financial year
FEL3 study 2016/17 financial year
FEL3 study 2016/17 financial year
FEL3 study 2016/17 financial year
RichCor 81Mtpa Ramp up and sustain tonnage capacity to 81Mtpa
RichCor 81Mtpa
• 18 Locations1_North West1_Gauteng11_Mpumalanga5_Kwa-Zulu Natal
RichCor 81Mtpa
• yard upgrade projects eg Blackhill; Saaiwater; Vryheid • new substations (5 on the DC section and 3 on the AC section)• substation upgrades (6 on the DC section and 2 on the AC section)• Electrical (OHTE) feeder wire projects, covering 99 km• Locomotive workshop in Ogies• Locomotive turntable in Richards Bay• Package of infra and rolling stock condition assessment systems• Two Eskom projects strengthening the transmission line backbones to the AC and DC
Transnet traction power systems, and providing power connections to the new substations• Continue the ~ R37bn expansion and sustaining project to 81mtpa
Project ShongololoOptimize operational efficiencies on the Coal Line and reduce operational costs
14
Project Shongololo
• FEL 2 - Pre Feasibility Development stage,
- Study Contract to be awarded
- Approximately 7 months
• Study to analyze- Entire rail network- Rolling stock- Related systems
• Possible outcomes- Eliminating dwell time at
yards- Running more robust
trains- Improving technology
2nd Overvaal TunnelRemove bottleneck along the coal line by the existing tunnel and improve turnaround time.
16
Second Overvaal Tunnel
• Existing tunnel – 30km South East of Ermeloapprox. 4km long
• Scope of Work:- Construction of 2nd Overvaal tunnel- and Provision of a signaled and electrified double track
• 2nd Overvaal tunnel offset 20m from existing tunnel
• FEL 3 stage – March 2015
Swaziland Rail LinkAlternative route to assist relieve pressure on the Transnet Coal Line to Richards Bay, freeing capacity for heavy haul bulk coal traffic.
18
Swazi Link
• FEL 3 – Feasibility Engineering Complete• FEL 4 Light in progress• Business Case approval – April 2015
Navitrade RBTGUpgrading of the Bhizolo yard in Richards Bay to increase capacity to the RBTG Navitrade Terminal to 6Mtpa
20
Navitrade RBTG
Navitrade Coal – from Mpumalanga and Newcastle/Dundee area to Richards Bay via Vryheid
Service design: 2 shunts per day, 80 – 120 wagons
Actual activity: 1 shunt per day, 50 wagons shortfall :
3 phased Plan - Study- Phase 1: Operational Improvements- Phase 2: Electrify 1 Arrival/Departure Line- Phase 3: Reconfigure Bhizolo yard to introduce
two arrival and two departure lines, and a bypass line.
21
Navitrade RBTG
Anticipated tonnages by study from the 3 phase plan
Year Coal ExportCFL/ CFR Wagon types per day
2014 (currently) 1.8 Mtpa
2015 3 Mtpa 150
2016 4.5 Mtpa 200
2017 6 Mtpa 240
Later years +10-20 Mtpa 450
Maputo/Limpopo Coal & MagnetiteAn efficiency improvement initiative to reduce train operation activities in the yard.
23
Maputo/LCM
Required FEL-3 level study
FEL-3 study outputs, which will be completed in March 2015.
24
INDUSTRY FORUM
• Transnet Commodity Database• Coal Industry Forum – March 2015
• Shared progress on Expansion Projects
• Contact :Silindile Khuzwayo -database administrator [email protected]
25
Conclusion
Our Message
• Long term view• Investor Confidence• Emerging Miner capacity• Optimised investments • Informed view
Efficiency program
Capital Investment program
Sustainable capital program
Emerging Miner Capacity • RBCT• RBTG• Other
Loading facilities
Coal Industry Forum
Thank you
