Canada’s National Report on Climate Change · 2000-07-18 · environment and energy ministers collaborated to produce this national report, with valuable input from the private

Canada’s National Report

on Climate Change

Actions to Meet Commitments Under

the United NationsFramework

Convention on Climate

Change

1994

Canada’s National Report on Climate Change – 1994 I

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Preface......................................................................................................IV

Executive Summary ..................................................................................V

Chapter 1: Introduction .............................................................................1

Climate Change 1The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 3Canada’s Commitments Under the FCCC 4The Structure of the National Report 5

Section 1 - Canada and Climate Change ..................................7

Chapter 2: Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Canada....................8

Future Climate Scenarios 8Possible Impacts on Ecosystems 10Possible Socio-Economic Impacts 14

Chapter 3: Canada and Greenhouse Gas Emissions .............................16

Population 17Geography 17Climate 18Land Use Patterns 19Economic Structure 21Energy Production and Consumption 23

Chapter 4: Canada’s Framework for Action ...........................................28

Political Institutions 28A Framework for Action 28Canadians Working Together 29

II Canada’s National Report on Climate Change – 1994

Table of Contents

Section 2 - Canadian Actions to Address Climate Change .....32

Chapter 5: Measures to Mitigate Climate Change..................................34

Overview of Measures 34Canada’s Policy Response to Climate Change 35Emissions Limitation 37Enhancing Sinks and Reservoirs 50Summary 52

Chapter 6: Climate Change Adaptation .................................................53

The Importance of Climate Change Adaptation 53Canada’s Response 54Examples of Climate Adaptation in Canada 56An Integrated Approach 59

Chapter 7: Increasing Public Awareness of Climate Change ................60

Environmental Citizenship: A Framework for Public Awareness, Education and Training 60Environment Canada’s Environmental Citizenship Learning Program 61Other Environment Canada Climate Change Education Activities 63Other Stakeholders 64

Chapter 8: Understanding Climate Change ............................................66

Scientific Research and Monitoring Activities 66Socio-Economic Analyses 74

Chapter 9: Improving Decision-making..................................................77

Reviewing Existing Policies 77Environmental Assessment 77

Chapter 10: International Co-operation..................................................79

Co-operation with Developing Countries 79International Co-ordination of Policy Instruments with Developed Countries 85Case Study of a CIDA-Funded Project that Contributes to Climate Change Mitigation 86

Canada’s National Report on Climate Change – 1994 III

Table of Contents

Section 3 - Assessing Canada’s Progress in Mitigating Climate Change ................................88

Chapter 11: Canada’s National Inventory of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions .......................91

Canada’s Approach to Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories 91Overview of Canada’s 1990 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 93Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Province/Territory 95Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Type and Sector 99Future Work 103

Chapter 12: Climate Change Indicators................................................106

Key Determinants of Greenhouse Gas Emissions 106Development of Climate Change Indicators 107Factors Influencing Energy Intensity 108CO2 Decomposition 110Historical Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends in Canada 111Putting 1990 into Perspective 112

Chapter 13: Canada’s National Emissions Outlook ..............................114

Overview 114Key Assumptions 115Energy Demand Outlook 117Greenhouse Gas Emissions Outlook 126Summary 130

Chapter 14: Case Study of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Associated With Space Heating inNew Single-family Homes ............131

Overview 131Space Heating in New Single-Family Homes: Setting the Context 132Initiatives to Reduce Space Heating Energy: Requirements in New Homes 133Assessing the Effectiveness of Measures to Improve the Energy Efficiency of Space Heating in New Single-Family Homes 135Summary 138

Chapter 15: Looking Into the Future .....................................................140

Producing a National Report 140The Need for Further Actions 141Working in Partnership 141

References.............................................................................................142

Canada was one of over 150 countriesto sign the Framework Convention onClimate Change at the United NationsConference on Environment andDevelopment (UNCED), held in Rio deJaneiro in June 1992. As the first globalsustainable development agreement,the Convention is an important step inmeeting the challenges and opportuni-ties posed by climate change.

To encourage action to bring theConvention into force as quickly as pos-sible, Canada announced at the UNCEDthat it was pursuing its own “quick-start” agenda on climate change. Theagenda included a commitment to ratifythe Convention before the end of 1992.On December 4, 1992, with the supportof the provinces and other partners,Canada became the eighth country toratify the Convention.

Another element of “quick-start” was a commitment to prepare a nationalreport that would outline and assess theimpact of policies and measures to limitgreenhouse gas emissions in Canada,provide an updated inventory of theseemissions and project their futuretrends.

Canada’s national report goes beyond“quick-start” by providing a snapshot of what is currently being done by governments, communities and the private sector with respect to Canada’sConvention commitments in the areasof climate change mitigation, adapta-tion, research and education, and international co-operation.

Besides showing where Canada standsin 1993, the report permits an evalua-tion of Canada’s efforts to meet its commitments under the Climate ChangeConvention. It also gives Canadians abasis for planning future action in themonths and years ahead.

The draft national report, published inSeptember 1993, was made available tostakeholders for review and comment.Substantive responses were received inOctober and November 1993 from non-government stakeholders representingmajor industrial interests and environ-mental groups. Much of what wasreceived has been incorporated into this report. The comments not includedwill be the subject of further discussionand analysis. Subsequent nationalreports will be produced on a regularbasis, as determined by the Conferenceof the Parties to the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change.

Federal and provincial/territorial environment and energy ministers collaborated to produce this nationalreport, with valuable input from theprivate sector and non-governmentalorganizations.

Additional copies of the report may be obtained by contacting:

Enquiry Centre Environment Canada Ottawa, Ontario Canada, K1A 0H3 Phone: (819) 997-2800 Fax: (819) 953-2225.

IV Canada’s National Report on Climate Change – 1994

PREFACE

Canada’s National Report on Climate Change – 1994 V

Canada’s National Report on Actions toMeet Commitments under the UnitedNations Framework Convention onClimate Change provides a snapshot of action currently being taken byCanadian governments, non-govern-mental organizations, communities and the private sector to meet domesticand international climate change commitments.

Under the Framework Convention onClimate Change, countries must adoptmeasures to mitigate climate change,adapt to its possible effects, increasepublic awareness and scientific under-standing of climate change and possibleresponses, and work together in all ofthese areas. As a first step, Canada hasestablished a national goal to stabilizenet emissions of greenhouse gases notcontrolled by the Montreal Protocol at1990 levels by the year 2000. Canadamust submit a report on actions beingtaken to meet its commitments underthe Convention six months after itenters into force, and on a regular basis thereafter.

At the 1992 United Nations Conferenceon Environment and Development,Canada announced a “quick-start”agenda that included a commitment toproduce its first national report in 1993.A draft was released in September 1993by the co-chairs of the National AirIssues Co-ordinating Committee (NAICC)for public review and comment. Thisreview process provided Canadians with an opportunity to comment on anumber of reporting and assessmentissues and, more generally, on theshape and direction of Canada’s

response to climate change. Many com-ments and suggestions regarding thenational report have been incorporated.

This national report provides govern-ments, non-government stakeholdersand individual Canadians with a foun-dation for understanding Canada’s situation and for determining theextent of further action needed to meet Canada’s climate change goals.

Canada and Climate Change

There is general agreement in the international scientific community thatincreasing the atmospheric concentra-tion of greenhouse gases will result inglobal warming. There are, however,uncertainties about the timing andregional magnitude. Clearly, projectionsof the possible impact of climate changein Canada must be treated with somecaution.

These projections indicate that climatechange could result in significantchanges to many of Canada’s naturalecosystems. For example, there could be wider variations in temperature, a rapid northward shift of climaticzones, lower water levels in the GreatLakes–St. Lawrence Basin, rising sea levels along Canada’s coasts andincreased land instability in northernCanada as a result of permafrost decay.The consequences for wildlife, humancommunities and the Canadian econo-my could be significant. Research is con-tinuing in Canada to improve scientificunderstanding of climate change and its possible impact.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Canadian demand for energy — to heatand light homes; operate industries,farms and businesses; and move peopleand products from place to place — isthe chief cause of anthropogenic green-house gas emissions. Canada is an ener-gy-intensive country because of uniquecharacteristics such as a low populationdensity, large distances between urbancentres, cold climate, relatively affluentlifestyles and a reliance on energy-intensive economic activities.

Fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas)meet close to three quarters of Canada’stotal primary energy demand. Theremainder is supplied by hydro andnuclear power, and other renewable(mainly biomass) sources. Solar and windpower currently meet only a very smallportion of Canada’s overall energyneeds, primarily for niche applicationssuch as hot-water heating, navigationalbuoys and irrigation water pumps.Efforts by Canadians to improve energyefficiency also play an important role inCanada’s efforts to manage its energyresources.

These, and other, national circum-stances have shaped Canada’s uniquenational greenhouse gas emissions profile, and provide insight into thechallenges and opportunities Canadafaces in responding to climate change.

Canada’s federal, provincial/territorialand municipal governments shareresponsibility for areas where action can be taken to address climate change.The draft National Action Strategy onGlobal Warming provides a frameworkfor action by government and non-government stakeholders to limitgreenhouse gas emissions, adapt to thepossible effects of climate change andimprove scientific understanding.

Action Taken by Canada to Address Climate Change

As a first step in meeting Canada’s stabilization commitment, govern-ments, utilities, private corporationsand community organizations are developing and implementing measuresto limit greenhouse gas emissions.

These measures make economic sense intheir own right, or serve multiple policyobjectives. Canada has adopted a com-prehensive approach that addressesemissions of all greenhouse gases fromanthropogenic sources and the seques-tering of these gases by sinks. Thisapproach provides Canadians with the flexibility to meet Canada’s climatechange objectives in a cost-effectivemanner.

Measures already taken in Canada seek to limit emissions or enhance thecapacity of sinks using a range of policyinstruments, including information andeducation initiatives, voluntary mea-sures, regulation, research and develop-ment, and economic instruments. Actionhas been taken in the following sectors:transportation, electricity generation,residential and commercial, resourceand manufacturing industries, andwaste management.

The majority of measures taken inCanada have been aimed at increasingenergy efficiency and energy conserva-tion or encouraging a switch to energysources that are less carbon intensive.There are also measures in place toaddress non-energy sources of green-house gases and to enhance carbonsinks in the forestry and agricultural sectors.

While limiting greenhouse gas emissions is fundamental to mitigatingclimate change, the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change is based on the principle that an effectiveresponse also requires adaptation, education, research and internationalco-operation. Steps have been taken inCanada to address climate change in allof these areas.

Canada is studying actions that may beneeded to adapt to possible changes inthe world’s climate. This work involvesexamining how Canadians have adapt-ed to Canada’s many diverse climaticzones. Also under way are assessmentsthat integrate the projected environ-mental, social and economic effects ofclimate change on different economicsectors and regions of Canada.

VI Canada’s National Report on Climate Change – 1994

Executive Summary

Canada’s National Report on Climate Change – 1994 VII

Many Canadian organizations are work-ing to increase public awareness of climate change through education andinformation campaigns, conferencesand contributions to school curricula.These educational activities are basedon the premise that Canadians will bemore likely to support action to addressclimate change, and take action volun-tarily, if they become “environmentalcitizens” with a better understanding ofthe linkages between their actions andthe impact on the environment.

Canadians from different sectors of society are working together to reducescientific and socio-economic uncertain-ties with respect to climate change.Efforts are being made to improve thecollection of past and current climato-logical data in Canada, and Canada continues to improve its ability to studypossible future climates with its generalcirculation model. Canada is alsoinvolved in several international studiesto improve understanding of theprocesses through which the variouselements (i.e., atmosphere, oceans,land) of the climate system interact,particularly in the northern regions ofthe planet. Finally, there is researchunder way on the possible impact of climate change and the socio-economicimplications of measures to limit green-house gas emissions.

At the international level, Canada contributes funding for developingcountry participation in fora such as the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange and the IntergovernmentalNegotiating Committee of the ClimateChange Convention.

The contribution of developing countriesto global greenhouse gas emissions isincreasing, and Canada is helping thesecountries meet their own commitmentsunder the Convention by providingfinancial and technical resources throughthe Global Environment Facility andbilateral channels. This support assistsdeveloping countries in the preparationof country studies that examine theircurrent situation. It also helps to limitgreenhouse gas emissions and facilitateadaptation to climate change.

Assessing Canada’s Progress in Mitigating Climate Change

Observed or projected changes in emis-sion trends provide only partial insightinto how Canada is doing in meeting itsclimate change objectives. Factors suchas energy prices, economic output levels, energy use patterns, land usechanges, technological developmentsand changes in behaviour all influenceemission trends.

Canada is developing an integratedapproach to assess progress towardsmeeting its emission limitation commit-ments. This approach seeks to under-stand how actions to limit emissionsinterrelate with other factors to changepast and future emission trends. Suchan understanding is necessary to ensurethat actions have a real and sustainedimpact on emission levels.

This report describes four tools used toassess progress in limiting emissions.

Emissions Inventories

Annual emissions inventories provide a tool for assessing progress in limitingemission levels and also provide a crucialreference point for other assessmenttools (i.e., climate change indicators,emissions outlooks and case studies).

In 1990, Canada’s total energy-relatedand non-energy-related emissions ofthe three major anthropogenic green-house gases, carbon dioxide (CO2),methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O),were equivalent to 526 megatonnes(Mt) of CO2 emissions, as calculated onthe basis of their global warmingpotential over a 100-year period. CO2accounted for 87% of these emissions,with CH4 and N2O accounting for 8%and 5% respectively.

Energy production and consumptiongenerated 98% of Canada’s anthro-pogenic CO2 emissions in 1990. Themajor sources of emissions were thetransportation sector (32%), electricitygeneration (20%) and industrial sources(16%).

Executive Summary

Climate Change Indicators

Canada has begun developing climatechange indicators to understand therelationship between emission trendsand underlying social, economic, tech-nological, and behavioural factors.

During the 1960s and 1970s, CO2 emis-sions in Canada grew at a rapid pace of 4% a year, fuelled by strong per capita output and population growth.Emissions then declined, beginning in1980 as Canadians responded to higherenergy prices and large-scale govern-ment efficiency and conservation pro-grams. In 1986, CO2 emissions began rising again as oil prices collapsed andboth the public and private sectorsreduced emphasis on energy efficiencyand conservation programs.

After reaching a historical peak of 487 Mt in 1989, energy-related CO2emissions fell in 1990 to 461 Mt. TheCanadian economy was in recession,above average winter temperatureswere experienced in many regions ofthe country and high water levelsallowed hydro-electricity to temporarilydisplace electricity normally producedfrom coal-fired generators. As the economy climbs out of the recent reces-sionary period, emissions are expectedto rise once again, unless the relation-ships between emissions and humanproduction and consumption activitiesare altered. In fact, CO2 emissions fell a further 6 Mt in 1991, but preliminaryestimates show they were on the riseagain in 1992.

Emissions Outlook

This national report includes an outlookfor future energy-related emissions ofthe three primary greenhouse gases,CO2, CH4 and N2O, to the year 2000. Inaggregate, the energy sector accountsfor 88% of these gases. Emissions fromnon-energy sources — representing12% of Canada’s total emissions — arenot included. Also not included in theoutlook is the removal of greenhousegases from the atmosphere through theprotection and enhancement of sinks.

Based on certain key assumptions andthe continuation of existing policies,

programs and measures, the outlookshows that energy-related emissions ofCO2, CH4 and N2O will be equivalent toabout 538 Mt of CO2 in the year 2000.This means that the emission level in2000 will be 52 Mt, or close to 11%higher, than the 1990 level.

This outlook is one of many plausibleviews of the future. It is sensitive tounderlying macro-economic assump-tions, such as energy prices, the struc-ture of the economy and economicgrowth. Changes to any one of thesewill lead to very different outcomes. Forexample, a US$5 decrease in world oilprices would increase the CO2 emissions“gap” by about 30% in the year 2000. A continuation of historical growthtrends in the goods and services sectorswould reduce the gap by about 30%.And increasing or decreasing economicoutput by 1% would enlarge or reducethe size of the gap by roughly 60% inthe year 2000.

In addition, this outlook incorporates theeffects of only those federal and provin-cial energy and environmental policies,programs and measures currently inplace or close to implementation. Inother words, no assumptions have beenmade about future changes in theseactions or additional ones that may beundertaken. In some instances, however,assumptions have been made about theextent to which certain initiatives areimplemented by various jurisdictions.

Emissions outlooks are an importanttool for understanding how various factors can drive the anticipated growthin emissions and the progress Canada ismaking towards achieving its climatechange objectives. They must be used in conjunction with the other assess-ment tools discussed in this nationalreport when considering the scope andnature of additional measures to limitemissions.

Case Studies

The use of case studies to assess theeffectiveness of measures to limit green-house gas emissions from selected areasof economic activity offers a bottom-up analysis of policy effects that

VIII Canada’s National Report on Climate Change – 1994

Executive Summary

Canada’s National Report on Climate Change – 1994 IX

complements top-down assessment toolssuch as emissions outlooks and climatechange indicators.

This national report includes one casestudy to illustrate the value of thisassessment tool. It concludes that cur-rent and planned measures to limitgreenhouse gas emissions associatedwith space heating requirements in new single-family homes will reduceemissions in this area by 18% from what they would otherwise be in theyear 2000.

Summary

The initial assessment of Canada’sprogress towards meeting its climatechange objectives indicates that additional measures are needed ifCanada is to meet these objectives. In response to this conclusion, federaland provincial/territorial energy andenvironment ministers, at their jointmeeting in November 1993, instructedtheir officials:

…to proceed with the developmentof options that will meet Canada’scurrent commitment to stabilizegreenhouse gas emissions by the year 2000 and to develop sustainable options to achieve further progress in the reduction of emissions by the year 2005.

A process has been established to develop and recommend to federal and provincial/territorial energy andenvironment ministers a national actionprogram designed to meet Canada’s climate change goals. This process isbased on a new Comprehensive AirQuality Framework that encourages alljurisdictions in Canada to co-ordinate,and co-operate in, the management ofall air issues, including acid deposition,smog, ozone depletion and, of course,climate change. This framework is beingimplemented by means of a NationalAir Issues Co-ordinating Mechanism.

Part of the new co-ordinating mecha-nism is a national Task Group onClimate Change. This multi-stakeholdergroup of government, business, labour,consumer and environmental members

has accepted responsibility for complet-ing this, and future, national reports,providing advice to the federal govern-ment regarding positions Canadashould be taking during internationalclimate change negotiations, and devel-oping a national action program toachieve Canada’s climate change goals.

Achieving the goals set by Canada onclimate change is a challenging task,one that requires the efforts and co-operation of all government and non-government stakeholders. It is also achallenge that must be met by individ-ual Canadians in their daily lives if long-term, sustainable progress in addressingclimate change is to be made. As part ofthis effort, Canada will continue devel-oping assessment tools to determine ifsuch progress is being achieved. Theintegrated approach to assessment is an evolving one that will benefit fromfuture contributions provided by relat-ed activities under way domestically and internationally.

Executive Summary

X Canada’s National Report on Climate Change – 1994

Map of Canada

YUKON

NORTHWEST TERRITORIES

SASKATCHEWAN

MANITOBA

ALBERTABRITISH

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ONTARIO

QUEBEC

NEWBRUNSWICK

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NEWFOUNDLANDSt. John’s

Charlottetown

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Vancouver Calgary

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Canada’s National Report on Climate Change – 1994 1

Climate Change

The atmosphere is essential for life onEarth. Human activity, however, hasaltered its composition, with potentiallyserious consequences. For example, synthetic compounds damage the ozonelayer that protects life from harmful levels of solar ultraviolet radiation; forest and aquatic ecosystems suffer asa result of industrial air pollutants thatproduce acidic precipitation; and severalhuman health problems are linked tothe smog generated in urban areas. Inaddition, growing evidence indicatesthat human activity is threatening oneof the atmosphere’s most importantfunctions: the maintenance of tempera-tures over most of the Earth’s surfacewithin the narrow range to which livingthings have adapted.

The atmosphere contains greenhousegases, such as water vapour, carbondioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) andnitrous oxide (N2O), which warm theEarth by allowing solar energy to reachthe Earth’s surface, where it is absorbedand re-emitted as heat. Greenhousegases trap some of this heat in theatmosphere and prevent its escape intospace (see Figure 1.1). Known as thegreenhouse effect, this heat-trappingprocess keeps the average temperatureof the Earth at about 15°C. Without it,the average temperature would be -18°C, and life as we know it would not exist.

Temperature is a basic determinant ofclimate. There is a broadly accepted scientific consensus that higher concen-trations of greenhouse gases in the

atmosphere increase the average tem-perature of the Earth. This is commonlyknown as global warming. However,global warming means more than anincrease in temperature. Changes intemperature directly affect precipita-tion levels, wind patterns and ocean circulation.

Human activity is rapidly increasing theconcentration of greenhouse gases inthe atmosphere. Indeed, scientists esti-mate that stabilizing the atmosphericconcentration of a major greenhousegas, such as CO2, would require animmediate 60% reduction in the globalanthropogenic emissions of this gas. Thecombined effects of fossil fuel combus-tion and deforestation have resulted in a25% increase in CO2 levels in the atmos-phere since the industrial revolution.Over the same period, CH4 doubled as aresult of fossil fuel production, landfillwastes and increased agricultural pro-duction (see Figure 1.2). Humans haveeven placed new greenhouse gases,such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), intothe atmosphere for the first time.

Chapter 1

Introduction

Figure 1.1

The Greenhouse

Effect

Source:Environment Canada

Solar energy penetrates the Earth’s atmosphere.

Most of this energy is absorbed

by the Earth’s surface and re-emitted asinfrared radiation.

Greenhouse gassesabsorb and re-emit someof this radiation, warmingthe Earth’s surface andthe lower atmosphere.

Several computer models have beendeveloped to determine what will happen if no action is taken to reduceanthropogenic emissions of greenhousegases. While the models offer differentviews on timing, magnitude and regionalimpact of climate change, they all showthat there is cause for serious concern.For example, the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC), com-posed of many of the world’s leading climatologists and authorities in relateddisciplines, concluded in its 1992 Supple-mentary Report to the IPCC ScientificAssessment that the Earth’s averagetemperature could increase 0.2°C to0.5°C per decade — a rate of changenot seen in 10,000 years. This rapid tem-perature increase could raise sea levels,shift climatic zones, and increase thefrequency and severity of weatherextremes such as tropical storms, heat

waves and cold snaps. These changeswould pose a serious threat to both theeconomy and the environment, particu-larly in developing countries.

Analyses of trends in average surfacetemperatures around the world suggestthat the Earth has indeed warmed byabout 0.5°C in the past century. A recentanalysis of Canadian temperaturesbetween 1895 and 1991 provides evi-dence of a regional warming trend.Canada’s average annual temperatureduring that period increased by about1.1°C. The Canadian trend is similar tothe global trend, and the greater rateof warming in Canada is consistent with climate model predictions of polar amplification of changes in global climate. This temperature changereflects global trends, both in the gen-eral magnitude of warming and in thevariability of the temperature patterns.

2 Canada’s National Report on Climate Change – 1994

Chapter 1

Ice-core data

C02 Concentration (ppmv

1740 60 80 1800 20 40 60 80 1900 20 40 60

270

280

290

300

310

230

CH4 Concentration (ppmv)

1770 60

0.6

1.4

0.8

1.0

1.2

80 90 180010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90190010 20 30 40 50

N20 Concentration (ppbv)

1550 50

0.6

1.4

0.8

1.0

1.2

70 90 1610 30 50 70 90 1710 30 50 70 90 1810 30

Atmospheric data

C02 Concentration (ppmv

1960 1990

310

320

330

340

350

360

CH4 Concentration (ppmv)

1981 89

1.5

1.7

1.6

N20 Concentration (ppbv)

1975 1986

295

310

300

305

1970 1980

82 83 84 85 86 87 88

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Figure 1.2

Variation ofAtmospheric Car-bon Dioxide(CO2), Methane(CH4) and NitrousOxide (N2O) Con-centrations overthe Past 200 to 400 Years

Source: Neftel et al. (1985); Bolleet al. (1986); Pearman etal. (1986); Khalil and Ras-mussen (1988b).


The increases in both Canadian andglobal temperatures are consistent with the enhanced greenhouse effectpredicted by climate change models,but they still remain within the limits of natural variability and cannot beattributed unequivocally to increasedgreenhouse warming. It will take atleast another decade of scientific moni-toring and research to lessen many ofthe uncertainties surrounding climatechange. In the meantime, the inter-national community has responded to the threat of serious or irreversibledamage by forging a consensus thatimmediate action must be taken tocounter climate change.

The United Nations Frame-work Convention on Climate Change

Climate change has concerned scientistsfor many years, but it only became amajor international issue in the late 1980s.

The 1987 report of the United NationsWorld Commission on Environment andDevelopment focused internationalattention on the threat climate changeposed to the global environment andeconomy. High-profile internationalconferences were held in Toronto(1988), the Hague (1989) and Noordwijk(1989) to discuss the issue. At the sametime, the United Nations EnvironmentProgram (UNEP) and the World Meteo-rological Organization (WMO) estab-lished the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) to bring theworld’s leading scientists together, inorder to develop an international con-sensus on the science of climate change.

In November 1990, scientists and politi-cians met at the Second World ClimateConference in Geneva to review theconsensus findings of the IPCC, whichwere so compelling that governmentministers made a commitment to nego-tiate an international convention on cli-mate change to be signed at the UnitedNations Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiroin 1992.

Negotiations began in February 1991and were completed in May 1992. The result was the United NationsFramework Convention on ClimateChange (FCCC), signed by over 150 countries at the Earth Summit. Theultimate objective of the Convention is:

…stabilization of greenhouse gasconcentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dan-gerous anthropogenic interferencewith the climate system. Such a levelshould be achieved within a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystemsto adapt naturally to climatechange, to ensure that food produc-tion is not threatened and to enableeconomic development to proceedin a sustainable manner.

Canada believes the Convention is animportant first step in global efforts toaccomplish this objective and representsthe beginning of international effortsto deal with the challenges and oppor-tunities posed by climate change.

Throughout the negotiations, Canadasought a convention based on a firmtarget and schedule — the stabilizationof all greenhouse gas emissions not con-trolled by the Montreal Protocol at 1990levels by the year 2000. (The MontrealProtocol controls chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)and carbon tetrachloride (CCL4).) Whilethe FCCC does not include this formalcommitment, industrialized nations haveagreed to aim for the above-mentionedtarget and schedule.

To accomplish the Convention’s ultimateobjective, a stronger commitment tolimit greenhouse gas emissions will berequired. The evolving nature of theConvention, which encourages andallows amendments and modifications,makes a stronger commitment possible.

Under the Convention, commitmentswill be reviewed and updated regularly,based on evaluations of the Convention’seffectiveness, and new scientific andtechnical information. Moreover, theConvention’s underpinning principles of public accountability create strongpressure for progress. All countries are

Introduction

accountable to the public through theConvention’s requirement for regularprogress reports.

The FCCC also incorporates a key princi-ple that Canada promoted throughoutthe negotiations — the importance of a comprehensive approach to mitigate climate change that would includesources and sinks of all greenhousegases not controlled by the MontrealProtocol, and the importance of dealingwith these sources and sinks in an inte-grated manner.

Taking into account common, but dif-ferentiated, responsibilities, and specificnational and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances,all parties to the Convention, whetherindustrialized or developing countries,have undertaken binding commitmentsto act on climate change mitigation andadaptation, co-operation to increase scientific understanding and awareness,and the inclusion of climate change considerations in decision making.Moreover, in recognition of differ-entiated responsibilities and nationalcircumstances, industrialized countriesare providing new and additional finan-cial and technological assistance todeveloping nations to ensure that they can effectively implement theircommitments. Developing countrieshave also been allocated more time toreport on action taken to meet theircommitments.

Canada’s CommitmentsUnder the FCCC

Climate Change Mitigation

The Convention commits Canada toimplement policies and measures thatmitigate climate change by limitinganthropogenic emissions of greenhousegases. Canada is also committed to pro-tecting and enhancing natural sinks, suchas forests, that remove greenhouse gasesfrom the atmosphere. The aim is toreturn greenhouse gas emissions to their1990 levels by the end of the decade.

While the Convention does not includelegally binding targets and schedules to

control greenhouse gas emissions, it doesencourage governments to examine arange of policy options. Governmentshave an opportunity to choose the cli-mate change mitigation measures thatare the most environmentally effectiveand economically cost-effective.

The Convention responds to the impactof human activity on greenhouse gasemissions by clearly indicating that cli-mate change mitigation policies shouldbe comprehensive, encompassing allgreenhouse gases. It also recognizes thathuman activity is increasing the concen-tration of greenhouse gases throughboth the emission of these gases and thedestruction of forests and other naturalsinks that absorb greenhouse gases fromthe atmosphere. For these reasons, theConvention implicitly acknowledges theimportance of limiting net greenhousegas emissions to the atmosphere.

Finally, the Convention looks at climatechange as a truly global problem: emis-sion reductions and sink enhancementsare equally important in all parts of theworld. It establishes the concept of jointimplementation that will allow countriesto work together to exploit the mostenvironmentally and economicallyeffective opportunities to mitigate climate change. These joint implemen-tation provisions recognize that somecountries may find it much less expen-sive to reduce greenhouse gas emissionsin another country than at home.

Under the Convention, Canada mustalso provide detailed information on its climate change mitigation measuresand assess the impact of these measureson its greenhouse gas emissions. Tofacilitate this assessment, the Conventioncommits Canada to publishing nationalinventories of anthropogenic emissionsof greenhouse gases and of the removalof these gases by sinks, as well as anoutlook on future emission levels.

Climate Change Adaptation

The FCCC acknowledges that green-house gas emissions from human activitymay have already committed the worldto a changed climate. Accordingly, Cana-da has made a commitment under the


Chapter 1


Convention to adopt policies and mea-sures that will facilitate its ability toadapt to the possible future impact ofclimate change.

Increasing Public Awareness about Climate Change

Policies to mitigate climate change willbe more effective if people understandthe need for such policies and supportthem. Consequently, the Conventioncommits Canada to developing andimplementing educational and publicawareness programs on climate changeand its effects both nationally and inter-nationally. Canada has agreed to ensurethe widest possible public participationin addressing climate change and devel-oping adequate responses.

Understanding Climate Change

The Convention negotiators did not for-get the scientific and policy uncertaintiesassociated with climate change, andthey recognized the need to lessen thisuncertainty.

Canada is committed to promoting, andco-operating in, the exchange of infor-mation related to climate change byworking nationally and internationallyon data collection, research and systemat-ic observation to further the understand-ing of climate change and reduce thescientific uncertainties surrounding it.

Improving Decision Making

Economic and environmental decisionmaking must take into account climatechange, if a sustainable developmentapproach is to be achieved. The Conven-tion commits Canada to this approach.

By ratifying the Convention, Canada hasalso agreed to identify and review policiesand practices that result in greater levelsof net anthropogenic greenhouse gasemissions than would otherwise occur.

International Activities

The Convention recognizes that devel-oping countries will require assistanceto counter, and adapt to, climatechange. Accordingly, it commits Canada

to providing new and additional finan-cial resources to developing countries to help them meet their own commit-ments under the Convention. Canadahas also agreed to promote, facilitateand finance the transfer of environmen-tally sound technologies while workingto enhance the technological capacityof developing countries.

Canada must also co-operate with other countries to ensure that the policy instruments it adopts to mitigateclimate change complement, rather thancounteract, measures taken elsewhere.

The Structure of the National Report

This national report is divided into threesections that describe Canada’s nationalcircumstances, climate change initiativesand progress in mitigating climatechange.

Canada and Climate Change (Chapters 2 to 4)

This section describes climate change inthe Canadian context. It indicates whyclimate change is of concern to Canadi-ans and describes some of the charac-teristics of Canada that contribute toCanada’s unique greenhouse gas emis-sions profile and influence Canada’sresponse to climate change.

Chapter 2

Summarizes current research on thepossible environmental, social andeconomic impact of future climatechange on Canada.

Chapter 3

Discusses Canada’s national circum-stances in the areas of population,geography, climate, land use, econ-omy, and energy production andconsumption.

Chapter 4

Presents the broad frameworkCanada is using to bring Canadianstogether in the search for solutionsto the climate change problem.

Introduction

Action Taken by Canada to Address Climate Change (Chapters 5 to 10)

Each chapter in this section provides anoverview of the action taken by Canadi-ans to meet specific obligations underthe FCCC.

Chapter 5

Describes policies and measures tolimit anthropogenic greenhouse gasemissions, and to protect andenhance greenhouse gas sinks.

Chapter 6

Examines current measures to adaptto Canada’s climate and describesfuture work in this area.

Chapter 7

Reviews initiatives to increase publicawareness of climate change and toencourage individual action toaddress the problem.

Chapter 8

Summarizes scientific research onclimate change processes, as well associo-economic research on theimpact of, and response to, climatechange.

Chapter 9

Provides an indication of how policymaking incorporates climate changeconsiderations.

Chapter 10

Describes the transfer of financialand technical resources to develop-ing countries to help them deal withclimate change.

Assessing Canada’s Progress in Mitigating Climate Change (Chapters 11 to 14)

This section examines trends in netgreenhouse gas emissions, identifies andanalyzes changes to these trends, andevaluates the effectiveness of measuresto limit net emissions. The assessmentlooks at historical levels of emissions andprojects them into the future.

Chapter 11

Describes Canada’s national inven-tory of anthropogenic greenhousegas emissions for 1990.

Chapter 12

Discusses key factors that affectemission trends and puts Canada’s1990 greenhouse gas emissions inperspective by examining changes tothese key factors in the late 1980s.

Chapter 13

Presents one emissions outlook for energy-related greenhouse gasemissions that is based on a numberof macro-economic and policy-levelassumptions.

Chapter 14

Examines the projected impact ofmeasures to reduce greenhouse gasemissions associated with heatingnew single-family homes.

Looking to the Future

Chapter 15

Summarizes the conclusions that canbe drawn from the information andanalysis contained in the document,and outlines the process now underway to develop a national actionprogram.


Chapter 1


The Framework Convention on ClimateChange (FCCC) recognizes that all coun-tries have a common, but differentiated,responsibility to mitigate climate change.By signing and ratifying the FCCC,Canada has made it clear that it will contribute to this international effort.

Each country is unique and requires itsown approach to climate change, andthis is certainly true for Canada. Thissection of the national report places climate change in a Canadian context. It provides an overview of the specificnational circumstances Canada mustconsider in developing its response toclimate change. These circumstances are influential in determining Canada’spriorities for climate change research,adaptation and mitigation.

Each of the three chapters in this sectionfocuses on a different aspect of theCanadian situation.

Chapter 2

Possible Impact of Climate Changeon Canada

Canadians are concerned about cli-mate change. This chapter providesa vision of what Canada might looklike if the atmospheric concentra-tion of greenhouse gases increasedto a level equivalent to a doublingof the atmospheric concentration ofcarbon dioxide (CO2). This is fol-lowed by a summary of currentresearch on the possible environ-mental, social and economic impactof future climate change onCanada.

Chapter 3

Canada and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

This chapter examines Canada’snational circumstances with respectto population, geography, climate,land use, economic structure, andenergy production and consump-tion. These circumstances contributeto Canada’s unique greenhouse gasemissions profile and provide someinsight into where Canada mighthave more, or less, flexibility inresponding to climate change.

Chapter 4

Canada’s Framework for Action

Responsibility for responding to cli-mate change is divided among sev-eral jurisdictions in Canada. Thischapter presents the broad frame-work that has been established tobring all Canadian stakeholderstogether in the search for solutionsto the climate change problem.

Section 1

Canada and Climate Change

The concept of sustainable developmentlinks the environment and the economy.This connection is evident in Canada,where a significant portion of economicactivity has always centred on naturalresources such as forests, fisheries, agricul-ture, mining and fossil fuel production.

One of the reasons Canada stronglysupports the Framework Convention onClimate Change (FCCC) is the possibilitythat climate change will have a signifi-cant negative impact on Canada’s envi-ronment and economy (see Figure 2.1).

Several studies have already attemptedto assess the possible impact of climatechange on Canada. They represent onlythe beginning of work in this area, butthey clearly demonstrate that Canadiansshould be concerned about climatechange resulting from anthropogenicgreenhouse gas emissions.

Future Climate Scenarios

In most Canadian studies, the analysis isbased on a climate projection generatedby a computer-based general circulationmodel (GCM) of the climate system. TheIntergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) referred to several GCMswhen it examined the consequences ofan increase in greenhouse gases equiva-lent to a doubling of the atmosphericconcentration of carbon dioxide (CO2)from pre-industrial levels. According toIPCC projections, such an increase couldoccur as early as 2030 if nothing is doneto limit anthropogenic emissions ofgreenhouse gases. By taking steps toreduce emissions, an increase could bedelayed or even avoided.

The IPCC concluded that doubled atmos-pheric concentrations of CO2 would leadto an increase of global mean surfacetemperatures of 1.5°C to 4.5°C. The fre-quency and severity of extreme weatherevents, such as droughts and hurricanes,would increase. Global mean precipita-tion would also increase, but regionalprecipitation would decrease at differenttimes of the year. In addition, the globalmean sea level would be 8 to 29 cmhigher by 2030 as a result of the ther-mal expansion of the oceans, meltingland ice and vertical land movements.

GCMs have so far provided little insightinto the variability of future climates,but there are preliminary indications, forexample, that summer hot spells anddroughts in the Prairies could becomemore frequent, while extreme cold spellsin winter would become less frequent.

While GCMs agree on large-scalechanges to the climate system, regional projections must be treatedwith caution. This uncertainty reflectsan incomplete understanding of allsources and sinks of greenhouse gases,natural climatic variability and the role of other factors, such as clouds,oceans and ice sheets, in future climateprocesses. In addition, temperatureincreases may not be linear — major orsudden surprises are a distinct possibility.

All attempts to construct scenarios ofthe possible impact of climate changeon Canada are affected by these uncertainties. They must therefore be recognized as the best assessmentpossible on the basis of existing scientificknowledge.


Chapter 2

Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Canada

Figure 2.1

Impact of Climate Change

Source:The Climates of Canada

by David Phillips, for Environment Canada,

1990



Canadian Temperatures Under Future Climate Scenarios

Canada is located in the middle and highlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere,where GCMs project significant tempera-ture increases in winter. Scenarios predictwinter temperature increases of 6°C ormore, except on the Pacific and Atlanticcoasts, where projected warming wouldbe closer to 4°C. Some GCMs project winter increases of 10°C or more for the High Arctic. Summer temperatureincreases would not be as great, butwould still reach 4°C in most areas,except the Arctic Ocean and Pacific coast.

Temperature changes are amplified inthe winter because a reduction in snowand ice cover means that less heat isreflected from the planet’s surface. Thisenhances the greenhouse effect. Suchincreases would change the character of winter throughout Canada. SouthernCanada could experience significantreductions in the duration of ice andsnow cover, and increased rain insteadof snowfall.

In the North, winter would probablyremain unchanged because even a 10°C warming would still leave meanJanuary temperatures below -15°C atmost locations north of 60° north lati-tude. The warmer spring and fall, how-ever, would lead to a reduced durationof ice and snow cover, and that couldhave significant implications for ecosys-tems and northern communities.

Precipitation in Canada Under Future Climate Scenarios

GCMs project increased winter precipi-tation for the entire country. This wouldlead to increased snowpack, except insouthern locations where projectedmean monthly temperatures couldapproach 0°C. Under these circum-stances, snow cover might be intermit-tent, rather than persisting for two tofour months as it does now.

Summer precipitation is projected toincrease north of 60° north latitude.South of 60° north latitude, there is noconsensus. Some GCMs project decreasesduring the summer and fall, particularly

in the southern Prairies, the GreatLakes–St. Lawrence Basin and the Mar-itimes.

Sea-Level Rise in Canada Under Future Climate Scenarios

Canada’s coastline is approximately 244 000 km in length. There is consider-able variation in vertical land movementtrends, even within the same region.Along the Pacific coast, the Fraser Low-land is subsiding at 10 cm/century, whilethe west coast of Vancouver Island is ris-ing at 20 cm/century. In the Atlanticregion, the Gaspé Peninsula is rising at upto 40 cm/century, while Newfoundland issubsiding at about 50 cm/century.

A projected global mean sea-level riseof 20 cm by 2030, as suggested by theIPCC, would not be noticeable whensuperimposed on a rising coastline.Where there is subsidence, however,there could be a considerable impact on coastal structures and ecosystems.

Possible Impact on Ecosystems

Ecological systems integrate atmospheric,hydrospheric, biospheric and lithosphericprocesses. If increases in CO2 and othergreenhouse gases affect these processes(through changes in climate and plantgrowth), then Canada’s diverse ecosys-tems will be affected as well.

The climate change scenario for Canada,described in Section 2.1, suggests ashorter, wetter winter; a longer growingseason; and changes to the hydrologiccycle, such as higher and earlier springflood peaks, longer ice-free periods,warmer water temperatures duringice-free periods, etc. This scenario wouldaffect different ecosystems in variousways, and many of the effects would bespecific to a certain region.

The following discussion examines thepossible impact of climate change onfour ecosystems: terrestrial (with a special look at agriculture and forestry),freshwater, marine and northern/arctic.


Chapter 2


Terrestrial Ecosystems

Figure 2.2 illustrates how a scenario ofclimatic warming could change ecocli-matic zones (a climatic index showingbroad areas characterized by distinctiveecological responses to climate, asexpressed by vegetation and reflectedin soils, wildlife and water) in Canada.The boreal ecoclimatic zone would bereduced in size and fragmented by theexpanding grassland ecoclimatic zone,which may include smaller zones ofaspen parkland. A semi-desert ecocli-matic zone could develop south of thegrassland.

The increase in evaporation and transpi-ration would overshadow any projectedincreases in precipitation or exacerbatedrought-like conditions in areas ofsouthern Canada where decreases inprecipitation are projected. As a result,the boreal ecological zone wouldbecome considerably smaller, sand-wiched between grassland advancingfrom the south and the infertile barrier of soils now occupied bylichen-woodland and tundra. The fre-quency and severity of forest fires couldalso increase as part of this scenario.

GCMs project a faster rate of changethan has been experienced in the last 10 000 years. The adaptability ofunmanaged forests and other naturalterrestrial ecosystems is a key factor inassessing the impact of this change. Animportant question is whether vegeta-tion would respond quickly to changes

in ecoclimatic zones. There is evidencethat vegetation in ecozones (boundariesbetween ecological regions such as the tree line) has adapted well to pastclimatic changes, which were moremodest than the warming scenario projected by GCMs. Paleoecologicalstudies indicate, however, that theseresponses do not appear to have beensynchronous in western, central andeastern Canada. The arctic tree line, for example, moved northward innorthwestern Canada 2 000 to 5 000years earlier than it did in the east, andit retreated southward earlier. The char-acter of future responses, whether syn-chronous or asynchronous, has not yetbeen determined.

Agricultural Resources

The severity and frequency of agricul-tural drought in the Great Lakes–St.Lawrence and Prairie regions mayincrease with climate change. This couldlead to a greater use of drought-toler-ant crops, increased irrigation orchanges in agricultural activity.

A warmer climate may lead to someexpansion of agricultural lands north-ward, particularly in the Clay Belt ofcentral Ontario, the Peace River regionof Alberta and several areas north of60° north latitude (e.g., the MackenzieValley). However, soil capability wouldlimit additional expansion. Finally,greater variability in weather conditionscould affect crop growth.


Figure 2.2

ProjectedChanges in Ecocli-

matic ZonesResulting from aScenario of Dou-bled-CO2 Climate

Source: Rizzo (1990) as presented

in Hengeveld (1991)

Forest Ecosystems

As noted earlier, the potential exists fora reduction and fragmentation of theboreal ecoclimatic zone. This could leadto a reduction in the extent of the bore-al forest, and the extension of hard-woods and grassland into areasformerly occupied by softwoods. Thereare however many unanswered ques-tions.

Forest growth rates could increase inother regions of the country, particular-ly in marginal areas that are currentlylimited by cold temperatures (e.g.,spruce near the arctic tree line, hard-woods in Quebec and Ontario). On theother hand, warmer temperatures arelikely to lead to an increase in forestdamage from pests and disease, as wellas increased fire frequency and severity.

Concerns have been raised regardingold-growth forests and their ability toadapt to a rapidly warming climate. Thisremains a subject of considerabledebate.

The availability of water is the criticalfactor determining the survival of newlygerminated seeds and young treeseedlings. Consequently, increased heatand potential drought stress may limitthe success of both natural and artificialregeneration, whether trees are seededor planted.

Competition with unwanted speciesmay also increase the failure rate ofregeneration. For example, broad-leaved weeds are expected to growfaster under warmer temperatures andelevated CO2 levels. This will almost cer-tainly cause problems in forest regener-ation because unwanted plant specieswill compete with young seedlings forlimited moisture and nutrients.

Freshwater Ecosystems

Precipitation is extremely difficult toproject, and the outputs of variousGCMs can be very different for certainregions.

High-latitude watersheds are generallyexpected to become wetter withincreased mean annual discharge and

higher spring snowmelt peaks. Thesepeaks would probably occur earlier inthe year. This could lead to a longerperiod of low flows, and the increasedevaporation from shallow lakes duringthe longer, warmer summer could leadto lower freshwater levels. Some smalllakes north of 60° north latitude maydisappear because of increased evapo-ration and increased infiltration fromthawing permafrost.

South of 60° north latitude, the GreatLakes–St. Lawrence Basin may experi-ence less run-off and increased evapora-tion, resulting in lower lake levels andstreamflow. While soil moisture andwater levels in Prairie wetlands andsloughs could decline, there is no con-sensus on projected changes in run-offfrom the Rocky Mountains, a primarysource of water for the SaskatchewanRiver Basin. A similar situation existsregarding future run-off in the JamesBay area of Quebec because of uncer-tainties in precipitation projections forthe province.

Warmer air temperatures are likely toincrease water temperatures. Ice coverduration is expected to decline, and insome cases in the south, ice formationmight not occur at all. This could resultin increased phytoplankton production,more habitable waters during winterand better conditions for aquaculture.

Fish species in coastal areas may shiftfrom present zones, and residentcold-water species may disappear fromsome lakes in the south. Changes inshoreline wetlands (e.g., lower levels inthe Great Lakes and high-latitude shal-low lakes) could affect fish populations.In some areas, excessively high watertemperatures and oxygen depletionmay occur during summer, leading toreduced productivity.

Marine Ecosystems

Rising sea levels could increase the riskof flooding in low-lying coastal areasfrom high tides and storm surges (seeFigure 2.3). This would cause coastalerosion and change wildlife and fishhabitat. Coastal deltas, including theFraser and Mackenzie, are particularly


Chapter 2


vulnerable to flooding and the penetra-tion of saline water into freshwaterareas.

The effect of oceanic changes, includingtemperature, currents and salinity, onmarine fisheries and wildlife, wouldvary by species. Warmer coastal waterswould affect the geographical limits ofmany species, as has been observed inhistorical migratory patterns, includingthose of salmon and tuna. Crustaceans(crab, shrimp, etc.) are more likely to beaffected during spawning and early sealife, rather than during adulthood.

Fish populations are influenced not onlyby environmental changes, but also byhuman activities (level of exploitation,changes in technology, internationalrelations). The marine environment isextremely complex, and the knowledgebase is insufficient to predict the directimplications of climate change on spe-cific marine species. Studies of societalresponses to historical variations canprovide insight into the relationshipbetween climate and fisheries, but considerably more oceanographic andbiological research and model develop-ment on climate-fisheries interactionare needed.

Northern Ecosystems: the Arctic

Over 40% of Canada is situated north of60° north latitude. It is a cold region, dom-inated by lengthy periods of sub-freezingconditions. This is reflected in the wide-spread occurrence of discontinuous andcontinuous permafrost, ice cover in fresh-water and marine areas, and the domi-nance of tundra vegetation in the easternArctic. The human population is sparseand largely indigenous, and wildlife har-vesting is an important source of food andincome for northern communities.

As discussed earlier, northern ecosystemswould experience greater snow accumu-lations, shorter snow and ice duration,greater and earlier spring floods, andnorthward migration of vegetation,including the boreal forest.

Permafrost decay and a thickening of thebiologically active soil layer could lead toincreased land instability (e.g., landslides)

in areas of discontinuous permafrost.The boundary between discontinuousand continuous permafrost would slowlyshift northward resulting in greater infil-tration of surface water into the ground.When combined with a longer growingseason, this could drain small shallowlakes during late summer. In addition, areduction in sea ice and coastal perma-frost could lead to accelerated coastalerosion and the degradation of shore-lines.

Changes in the extent and character ofthe boreal forest (e.g., more hardwoods),due to a warmer growing season andincreased fire incidence, could have sig-nificant implications for wildlife. Somespecies avoid burn areas for many years(e.g., caribou), so their habitat andmigratory patterns may change. Insectharassment may increase, and increasedwinter snow accumulation may affectwinter survival rates.

Less sea ice and warmer sea-surface tem-peratures could be harmful becausealgae that grow on the undersurface ofsea ice, the base of the Arctic food chain,would disappear when the ice melts.There are many uncertainties associatedwith sea-ice predictions, including therole of changes in freshwater dischargesfrom north-flowing rivers such as theMackenzie. Changes in streamflow couldaffect salinity, which could in turn offsetor augment the effects of warmer airtemperatures on sea ice.


Figure 2.3

Effect of a One-Metre Rise in

Sea-Level and a20-Year Storm

Surge on Flood-ing in Charlotte-

town,Prince Edward

Island (P.E.I.)

Source: Adapted from Lane

(1986) as presented inHengeveld (1991).

Possible Socio-Economic Impact

Climate variability and extreme climaticevents can affect economic activitiesand community services. For example,many of the natural resources that arepart of the bedrock of the Canadianeconomy are likely to be affected by climate change.

An assessment of the socio-economicimpact requires the introduction of anew set of uncertainties to the analysis— assumptions about changes in popu-lation, technology and economicgrowth. As a result, the socio-economicimplications of climate change are moredifficult to project than the possibleimpact of climate change on ecosys-tems. Moreover, with the increasingglobalization of the economy, similarassumptions have to be made for othercountries that are either markets orcompetitors for Canadian products.

Approximately 70 studies of the possibleimpact of climate change on Canadahave been published since 1983. Ofthese, one third were commissioned bythe Government of Canada. Only ahandful of these studies, however,attempt to quantify the possible impactof climate change on socio-economicindicators. In a country as large as Cana-da, the socio-economic impact variesfrom region to region. There will beboth winners and losers on a sectoraland regional basis.

Studies completed to date have focusedon individual sectors and restricted theiranalysis to the effects of climate change.An integrated assessment that combinespopulation and economic scenarios withclimate scenarios is needed to determinethe significance of climatic impact rela-tive to other factors that may affect theCanadian economy. Clearly, more workneeds to be done in this area.

Agricultural Industry

Some studies suggest that technologicalchanges should result in increased cropyields, but the rate of increase would bereduced or could even decrease below

current yields in southern Alberta,southern Saskatchewan and southernOntario. On the other hand, areas thatare currently limited by cold tempera-tures could see increased productivityand expansion of agricultural activitywhere there are adequate soils. With-out regional adaptation strategies,there could be a northward shift ininvestment and employment in the agri-cultural sector, but the economic impli-cations of such strategies have yet to beassessed.

It is uncertain whether a warmer cli-mate would lead to new opportunitiesfor horticultural crops and for warmer-season crops. On a crop-by-crop basis,one study suggests that Canada’s wheatand corn production would benefitfrom a warmer climate, since higher-yielding varieties from the United States could replace Canadian varieties.Information on the effects of climatechange on other crops, such as barley,oats and soybeans, is limited.

Most studies of the agricultural impactdo not address possible changes in tech-nology, market forces, cropping pat-terns, CO2 enrichment, and pests anddiseases. Current agricultural practiceshave already been influenced by thesenon-climatic factors, and these must beconsidered when studying the potentialimplications of a warmer climate.

Energy Industry

It is unclear how climate change willaffect the demand for energy in Cana-da. Warmer winters are likely to result in reduced per capita demandfor space heating. On the other hand,the energy needed for air conditioningand an increased demand for irrigationservices could lead to higher summerenergy demand. Even these limited projections, however, could be alteredby improvements in energy efficiency.

Energy supply would be affected byreduced hydro-electric production inthe Great Lakes region as a result oflower streamflow and lake levels.

The relative costs of continental andoffshore fossil fuel exploitation might


Chapter 2


change significantly in the CanadianNorth. For example, thawing perma-frost might increase the infrastructurecosts (e.g., pipelines) associated withcontinental fossil fuels in the Far North.Reduced continental and sea ice, how-ever, might make offshore fossil fuelexploitation more attractive.

Forest Industry

It is difficult to determine precisely how Canada’s forest industry would beaffected by a warmer climate. The prob-lem presented by climate change is oneof time, magnitude and rate of change.Given currently projected climate change,changes could take place in the nextcentury or so equivalent to those thatoccurred over thousands of years in thepast. The ensuing environmental changescould exceed the ability of the variousecosystems and forest managers torespond or adapt in an orderly fashion.If so, the effects on the forest industrycould be profound. On the other hand,if the rate of change is slow, both theforest ecosystems and industry mayadapt and respond to the changes in a timely manner. However, because ofpresent uncertainties in current climateprojections and our understanding ofthe biological responses of the forest to various environmental changes, moreresearch is required before major con-clusions can be drawn on the potentialimpact of climate change on the forestindustry.

Fishing Industry

Many Canadian coastal communitiesdepend on the fishing industry for theirlivelihood. Even so, there are few stud-ies available on the potential economicimpact of climate change on offshoreand freshwater fisheries. One study ofAtlantic Canada did conclude that awarmer climate would benefit theaquaculture industry in the region.

Transportation Industry

People who travel the oceans aroundCanada should benefit from a reductionin ice and deeper drafts in coastal har-bours and channels as a result of risingsea levels. On the other hand, it is alsopossible that increased open water inthe Arctic could lead to increased stormsurges. In the Great Lakes, lower waterlevels could reduce available draft, leading to higher shipping costs.

Southern Canada should experiencereduced road maintenance costs, partic-ularly in winter, although coastal roadsmay need to be realigned because ofrising sea levels. In the north, snow-and ice-based winter roads may haveshorter operating seasons, resulting inan increased demand for air servicesand all-season roads.

Human Settlements

Assessing the possible impact of climatechange on human communities requiresan understanding of the link betweenthe impact of climate change on thenatural environment and on humanactivities. It also requires the integrationof this impact with other economic,social and political factors that con-tribute to the development of everyhuman community.

Understanding the possible impact ofclimate change on Canadians willrequire more integrated research thatcombines the environmental changesresulting from climate changes withimportant economic, political and socialfactors. The next step must be to devel-op an integrated assessment of theimpact of climate change scenarios forregions, as well as for all of Canada.

Research that has been done to thispoint indicates that climate change maywell have significant implications forCanada’s environment and economy.Assessment of the potential impact ofclimate change is continuing, and theefforts of Canadian researchers todevelop regionally integrated assess-ments are described in Chapter 8 of this report.


Every society emits greenhouse gases.Limiting these emissions requires inter-national co-operation to develop andimplement policies and measures to mitigate climate change. The FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC) isan important first step.

While Canada contributes only about2% of net global anthropogenic green-

house gas emissions, it was the world’seleventh largest net emitter of green-house gases in 1992 (Figure 3.1). Mostemissions in developed nations are asso-ciated with fossil fuel use, but in devel-oping countries, emissions from landuse changes are much more significant.

This chapter provides an overview offactors that differentiate Canada from

other countries andcontribute toCanada’s uniquegreenhouse gas emissions profile.These factors givean indication ofwhere Canadamight have more, or less, flexibility in responding to climate change, and they thereforehelp to determineCanada’s prioritieswithin its climatechange responsestrategy.

The chapter alsoexamines Canada’spopulation, geogra-phy, climate, land usepatterns, economicstructure, and energyproduction and consumption. Takentogether, these fac-tors make Canadaone of the mostenergy-intensivecountries in theworld.


Figure 3.1

Countries withthe Highest TotalGreenhouse GasEmissions, 1992

Source:World Resources 1992-93Tables 16.1, 24.1, & 24.2

Figure 3.2

CO2 Emissions/Population inCanada,1950-1990


U.S.

Former

China

Brazil

India

Japan

Indonesia

Germany

U.K.

Mexico

Canada

Columbia

Poland

Thailand

Myanmar0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Percentage of Total Emissio

USSR

Chapter 3

Canada and Greehouse Gas Emissions


Canada’s high energy intensity is impor-tant in the context of greenhouse gasemissions because much of this energy is produced through the combustion offossil fuels. In Canada, energy productionand consumption account for 98% ofcarbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and 52% of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions.

The fact that Canada is an energy-inten-sive country does not necessarily meanthat Canada is an extravagant or wastefuluser of energy. Energy intensity andenergy efficiency are two very differentthings. Energy intensity refers to energyconsumed per capita or per unit of eco-nomic output, while energy efficiency isa technical measure that quantifies thework performed per unit of energy con-sumed. In other words, it is possible tobe highly energy efficient but still use alot of energy because there are a largenumber of energy-consuming activities.

Population

In 1990, Canada was the thirtieth mostpopulous country in the world. In early1992, Canada’s population reached 27.2 million. While this is low in absoluteterms, the population is increasing rapidly.

In 1991, for example, Canada’s populationincreased by 1.5%, the fastest rate ofgrowth in the industrialized world. Thisreflects high levels of immigration, whichaccounted for 44% of the increase inCanada’s population in 1990. Continuedimmigration will ensure high populationgrowth even though Canada’s fertilityrate remains below replacement levels.

Figure 3.2 illustrates the relationshipbetween Canada’s population growthand energy-related CO2 emissions from1950 to 1990. Canada’s populationincrease of 94% in this period was amajor contributor to the 232% increasein energy-related CO2 emissions.

Geography

Canada is the second largest country inthe world, with a land area of 9 221 000square kilometres. This equals the com-bined areas of Argentina, Chile, Egypt,France, Germany, India and Nigeria.Indeed, France alone would fit 17 timeswithin Canada’s land mass.

Canada’s enormous size means that it hasone of the lowest population densitiesin the industrialized world, with only 29 people/1000 hectares (see Figure 3.3).


Figure 3.3

PopulationDistribution inCanada, 1986

Source:1986 Census of Canada

This is significantly lower than theUnited States (270 people/1000 hectares)and Japan (3265 people/1000 hectares).

Canada’s large size and low populationdensity mean that the transportationneeds of Canadians are much greaterthan in other countries. For example,90% of Canada’s population lives within160 kilometres of the border with theUnited States. A trip from Halifax toVancouver covers as much distance as a journey from Paris to New York. Eventhe area between Quebec City andWindsor, home to 53% of Canadians, is over 1000 kilometres in length.

Many of the natural resources that form the backbone of the Canadianeconomy are located north of the mainsouthern-based manufacturing andpopulation centres. This means thatmoving resources to manufacturing centres and markets also requires significant transportation resources.

Canada’s size makes the transportationsector extremely energy intensive. For example, Canada moves over fivetimes as much freight (measured intonne-kilometres) as France, Germanyand Japan.

Canada’s relatively high transportationneeds affect greenhouse gas emissionsbecause Canada’s transportation sector,like that of all countries, depends heavilyon oil to meet its energy needs. Indeed,

32% of Canada’sCO2 emissions and41% of its N2O emis-sions come from the transportationsector.

Canada’s urbanareas mimic the geography of thecountry — largeland areas charac-terized by low pop-ulation densities.(About 47% ofurban Canadianslive in single-familydwellings asopposed to apart-ment buildings.)

As a result, Canada’s urban geographyalso contributes to high energy intensityin the transportation sector.

Functionally segregated land use patterns that often place a significantdistance between dwelling units,between the home and the workplace,and between the home and recreationalfacilities characterize Canadian cities.This urban segregation means thattransportation needs in Canadian citiesare greater than in many other devel-oped countries. It also makes it moredifficult to build cost-effective publictransportation systems. As a result, 85%of all personal trips in Canadian urbanareas are made by automobile.

Climate

All nations are shaped by their climate,but few can match the climatic diversityof Canada. The size and variety ofCanada’s land mass, and the effects of its three ocean boundaries divideCanada into 11 distinct climatic zones(see Figure 3.4).

The differences between Canada’s climatic zones are significant.

• Cities on the Atlantic coast receive aslittle as 1500 hours of bright sunshineeach year, while cities on the Prairiesreceive as much as 2400 hours.

• In the Far North, winter tempera-tures average -35˚C to -30˚C, andsummer temperatures average 2˚Cto 7˚C. The South averages -20˚C to-5˚C in winter and 17˚C to 22˚C insummer.

• Canada’s coastal regions are thewettest, with an average of 3200mm of precipitation annually on the West Coast and 1500 mm on the East Coast. This contrasts withCanada’s north which averages only100 mm to 200 mm of precipitationeach year.

Overall, Canada’s climate is characterizedby short intensive summers, short growingseasons and long winters. In other words,Canada is a cold country, and as such hassignificant heating requirements.

Chapter 3

Table 3.1

Cities andHeating Degree

Days


Winnipeg 5,923

Helsinki 4,930

Moscow 4,840

Montreal 4,540

Stockholm 4,160

Toronto 4,140

Berlin 3,300

Beijing 3,050

Vancouver 3,030

Paris 2,720

Washington 2,160

Tokyo 1,620


One measure of heating requirements is the heating degree day (HDD), that is, the number of days the average dailytemperature is below 18˚C. To calculatea location’s annual heating degree daycount, multiply the number of days theaverage temperature is less than 18˚C bythe number of degrees the averagetemperature is below 18˚C over a year-long period.

Table 3.1 presents the annual heatingdegree day values for several citiesaround the world, including Winnipeg,Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal. Itclearly illustrates that Canadian citiesare colder than many other major inter-national cities.

Land Use PatternsThe following discussion of Canada’sforestry and agricultural sectors providessome insight into how land use patternsaffect other sources of greenhouse gasemissions and CO2 sinks.

Forested Lands and Forestry

Forests cover 45% of Canada’s land mass(see Figure 3.5). This is more than in theUnited States,Germany and theUnited Kingdom,where forests makeup 33%, 29% and9% respectively. It isno wonder thatCanada is consideredone of the world’s“forest nations”.

The prevalence offorested land inCanada makes theforest one ofCanada’s mostimportant economicresources. In 1990,forestry and forest-related industriesemployed, bothdirectly and indirect-ly, 765 000 people, orone out of every 16working Canadians.As a result, in 1990,

Canada ranked first in the world in theproduction of newsprint (31%), secondfor wood pulp (16%) and third for soft-wood lumber (16%). Indeed, over 15%of all Canadian exports in 1990 camefrom the forestry sector.

As noted in Chapter 2, climate changemay pose a significant threat toCanada’s forests and the economicactivity they create. It is also true thathuman management of forests caneither increase or decrease the concen-tration of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Forest management is importantbecause forests play an important rolein the global carbon cycle. Growingtrees remove CO2 from the atmosphere,store the carbon and release oxygen. Inother words, trees are a sink for carbon.As trees fall and decay, or are consumedby wildfire, most of the stored carbon isreturned to the atmosphere as CO2.

Without human interference, the roleof Canada’s forests as sinks and emittersof CO2 would remain in equilibriumover the long term. If forest loggingactivities are undertaken in an unsustainable manner, the carbon balance can be upset. When human


Figure 3.4

Canadian ClimateRegions

Source:The State of Canada’sClimate: Temperature

Change in Canada1895–1991,

Environment Canada

activity permanently converts forestedland to other uses, such as agriculture,transportation corridors or urbaniza-tion, CO2 is released to the atmosphereand a sink for carbon is lost. Land usechange, therefore, can exacerbate climate change.

Conversely, returning marginal agricul-tural lands to forests can add a new sinkfor atmospheric carbon until the newforest reaches a natural balance betweensource and sink. In this instance, land usechange mitigates climate change.

A discussion of the impact of humanactivity in Canada’s forests on green-house gas emissions and sinks can befound in Chapter 11.

Cropland, Rangeland and Agriculture

Over the past 20 years, 7% of Canada’sland mass has supported agriculture.While there has been little change in thetotal area farmed, the quality of land inproduction has declined. For example,Canadian farmers exploited more mar-ginal agricultural lands in one part ofCanada in the 1970s and 1980s, in

response to high grain prices, but inother areas of the country, prime agricul-tural land was converted to urban uses.

Agriculture is an important pillar of theCanadian economy, accounting for 3.5%of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product(GDP). Primary agricultural productionemploys about 450 000 Canadians, andan additional 1.5 million people work inrelated farm supply, processing, distribu-tion and retail businesses.

While it is recognized that climatechange threatens Canada’s agriculturalsector, agricultural practices canincrease or decrease the concentrationof greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.Indeed, agricultural activities are relat-ed to greenhouse gas concentrations inthree major ways.

First, Canada’s soils are an important nat-ural sink for carbon. As organic materialdecomposes in soils, the carbon containedin that material is released, to be storedin the soil itself. Accordingly, agriculturalactivities that contribute to the erosion of soils (cultivation of marginal farmland,excessive tillage, monoculture planting,


Chapter 3

Figure 3.5

PrimaryLandcover inCanada byEcodistrict, 1985


summer fallowing) undermine a naturalcarbon sink. The extent of soil erosion inCanada and its impact on CO2 e m i s s i o n sare discussed in Chapter 11.

Second, the digestion process of rumi-nant animals, such as sheep and cattle,and stockpiled animal wastes releasemethane (CH4) gas into the atmosphere.Although the average size of these animals has increased over time, thecontribution of livestock to greenhousegas emissions may actually be decliningin Canada because the number of sheephas remained relatively constant, whilethe cattle population has declined 20%.Improved diets may also contribute toreduced emissions.

Finally, the use of nitrate and ammoni-um fertilizers in agriculture producesN2O, another greenhouse gas. Thisemission source may be increasing inimportance. While fertilizer use hasremained relatively steady in Canadasince 1985, the 1985 level of fertilizeruse was more than four times higherthan in 1960. Moreover, the amount ofnitrogen in Canada’s total fertilizer mixincreased from 10% in 1960 to about30% in 1985.

Estimates of the current contribution offertilizer use and livestock to Canada’sgreenhouse gas emissions are providedin Chapter 11.

Economic Structure

Canada has the seventh largest industrialeconomy in the world. In 1991, the valueof goods and services in Canada, as mea-sured by the GDP, was C$679 billion.

Over the last two decades, Canada’s eco-nomic performance has been robust butuneven. While annual real growth in theGDP averaged 3.3% between 1973 and1990, there have also been significantfluctuations in the growth rate. Morerecently, the Canadian economy experi-enced a recession from the second quar-ter of 1990 to the first quarter of 1991,during which real GDP fell 3.4%. Sincethen, Canada has been experiencing ane x p o r t-led economic recovery.

Changes in the structure and perfor-mance of the economy can have amajor impact on greenhouse gas emis-sion levels. For example, if nothing elsechanges, greater economic activity willlead to increased greenhouse gas emis-sions. Canada’s economic situation alsoinfluences the type and range of measures Canada is undertaking tomeet its commitments under the FCCC.An overview of the current state of theeconomy provides grounds for optimism,although some significant problemsremain. In particular, Canada’s climatechange response will be designed withinthe context of national efforts to improvethe state of the Canadian economy.

The recent economic recovery has beenaided by policies that have broughtinflationary pressures under control.The inflation rate was only 1.5% in1992, a 30-year low and the lowestamong the world’s seven leading devel-oped countries. This low inflation ratepermitted a dramatic decline in interestrates. Indeed, short-term interest ratesfell from a high of 14% in 1990 to 5%in 1993. On the other hand, despiterecent employment growth, Canada’sunemployment rate remained high, at11.1% in October of 1993.

More importantly, however, Canada’sdebt position continues to affect its economic prospects. Since 1984–85, thefederal government has cut the averageannual growth of federal program spend-ing from 13.8% to 4.1% and reducedthe federal deficit from 8.7% to 5.1% of national income. Even so, 36 cents outof every dollar of government revenue in1990–91 went to pay interest on the fed-eral government debt. Many provincialgovernments find themselves in a similarsituation. The result is that, relative to the size of the economy, Canada’s fiscal indebtedness is second only toItaly’s among the world’s seven largestindustrial economies.

While Canada’s current economic situa-tion will influence the way it meets itsFCCC commitments, the structure ofCanada’s economy has a major impacton its greenhouse gas emissions profile.


All the major industrialized economieshave seen a decline in the importanceof their goods-producing sector relativeto their service sector over the last fewdecades. This shift has had an impact ongreenhouse gas emissions because thegoods-producing sector is more energyintensive than the service sector.

In Canada, the impact of the shifttowards the service sector on green-house gas emissions has been less pro-nounced for several reasons. The trans-portation component of the servicessector is more energy intensive inCanada because of Canada’s longer dis-tances and harsher climate. Moreimportantly, Canada’s goods-producing sector is more dependent onthe extraction of natural resources thanon manufacturing, when comparedwith other developed countries.Manufacturing accounts for 29% of theJapanese GDP and 33% of Germany’s,but it represents only 19% of Canada’s.

This affects Canada’sgreenhouse gasemissions becauseresource extractionactivities are gener-ally more energyintensive than man-ufacturing activities.

The importance ofextracting and processing naturalresources to theCanadian economyreflects Canada’sextensive naturalresource base. AsTable 3.2 indicates,Canada is one of the world’s leadingproducers of naturalresources. Indeed,Canada is theworld’s largest percapita producer ofnickel, copper,potash, gypsum, uranium, zinc, barley,industrial round-wood, sawn lumberand newsprint.

Canada is also the second largest percapita producer of aluminum, lead,wheat and oats.

Canada also has an abundance of energysources such as coal, hydro, natural gas,uranium and oil. The availability of reli-able domestic sources of energy at rea-sonable prices has encouraged the estab-lishment of energy intensive, natural-r e s o u r c e-based industries in Canada.

Exports play a particularly importantrole in the Canadian economy. Over thepast 30 years, export growth outpacedeconomic growth. Exports accountedfor only 15% of Gross National Product(GNP) in 1960, but they now representabout 30% of GNP. As a result, Canadais the eighth largest trading nation inthe world.

While the share of manufactured prod-ucts in Canada’s exports has increased,Canada still relies heavily on the exportof energy-intensive natural resourcessuch as forestry products, minerals, agri-cultural goods and various energy prod-ucts. Energy exports alone, including oil,gas, electricity, coal and uranium, repre-sented 11% of the value of all Canadianexports in 1992.

Canada’s dependence on a natural-resource-based, export-oriented economy affects how Canada’s green-house gas emissions are attributedinternationally. Canadian exports arehighly energy intensive because theyare predominantly natural-resource-based. The emissions associated withthese export activities are attributed to Canadian sources rather than to the countries consuming the exports.Canadian imports, on the other hand,are generally less energy intensive. Thismeans that Canada produces inputs andgenerates emissions that enable othercountries to specialize in the productionof goods that are less energy intensive.As a result, Canada’s greenhouse gasemissions increase, while emissionsdecrease in consuming countries thatmight otherwise have to produce thesecommodities themselves.

Chapter 3

Table 3.2

Canada’s Shareof the WorldProduction ofCertain PrimaryCommodities in1990

Sources:

1) FAO Yearbook 1991

2) World Resources1992–93

3) 1991 Canada’sMinerals Yearbook

Newsprint1 27.8%

Uranium3 27.7%

Potash3 25.5%

Nickel2 21.5%

Sawn wood1 16.8%

Zinc2 16.1%

Gypsum3 9.0%

Copper2 8.8%

Titanium3 8.8%

Aluminum3 8.6%

Barley1 7.6%

Lead2 7.0%

Cadmium2 6.9%

Oats1 6.7%

Roundwood1 5.2%

Iron ore2 4.2%

Wheat1 4.1%

N o t e : Canada accounts for only 0.5% of the world’s population.

Item Canada’s Share

Energy Production and Consumption

The energy sector has a very importantrole to play in Canada’s response to climate change. Canadian demand forenergy — to heat and light homes,operate industries, farms and business-es, and move people and products fromplace to place — is the chief cause ofanthropogenic greenhouse gas emis-sions in this country. Canada’s responseto climate change will affect the energysector and, consequently, the Canadianenergy economy. How Canadiansaddress the issue of climate change willbe determined to a great extent by howmuch energy they use in the future andhow that energy is used.

The following overview looks at thenature of the Canadian energy sectorand its contribution to the Canadianeconomy.

Energy Sector

The energy sector includes the explo-ration for, and recovery of, natural gasand crude oil; coal and uranium mining;the production and distribution ofpetroleum and coal products; electricpower production; the production of energy from renewable energyresources; and the promotion of theefficient use of energy. In addition tothis direct contribution to the nationaland regional economies, the energy sec-tor significantly influences many otherproduction and manufacturing activitiesthat depend on energy as an input.

Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) met73% of Canada’s total primary energydemand in 1992. The production, distri-bution and consumption of these fuelswere the chief sources of anthropogenicgreenhouse gas emissions in Canada.The remainder of the country’s energyneeds were met by hydro and nuclearpower, and other renewable (mainlybiomass) sources.

Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

Petroleum exploration and productionare concentrated mainly in western

Canada (Alberta accounts for 80% oftotal domestic crude oil output), butthere is also some in the Far North andoff the east coast. Crude oil production(conventional and synthetic) totalled119.8 million cubic metres in 1992. Oil isthe single most important source of ener-gy for Canadians, accounting for about36% of total primary energy demand.About half of the total crude oil output is consumed domestically. The rest isexported to the United States. Quebecand the Atlantic provinces rely on crudeoil imports, mainly from the North Sea.Production of refined petroleum prod-ucts (e.g., gasoline, home heating oil) to meet domestic demand was about 230 000 cubic metres a day in 1992, adecrease of about 23% from the late1970s due largely to slower economicgrowth, fuel switching to natural gas andnuclear power, gains in energy conserva-tion and fuel efficiency improvements.

Natural Gas

Most of Canada’s natural gas is also pro-duced in western Canada (Alberta 84%,British Columbia 10%). Productiontotalled about 116 billion cubic metres in 1992, about one half of which wasexported to the United States. The con-sumption of natural gas has grownsteadily over the past two decades andnow accounts for about 28% of primaryenergy demand in Canada.

Renewable Energy Production

The largest application of renewableenergy in Canada is hydro-electricpower, which accounts for approxi-mately 62% of Canada’s electrical gen-eration. This generation is mostly fromwater stored or controlled at large damsites, often flooding vast tracts of land.

Alternative renewable energy (includingsmall hydro-electric generation) suppliesabout 8% of Canada’s total primary energy demand. Of this, 80% is producedfrom biomass and 20% from small hydro.

In recent years, more environmentallybenign hydro-electric developmentthrough small low-head projects (notover 20 MW) has made some progress.These are usually run-of-the-river


installations. They currently representabout 1.8% of Canada’s installed elec-trical generating capacity.

The major source of renewable energyused in Canada is bioenergy, producedfrom biomass residues and woody biomass. Applications for this type ofenergy are electricity generation, spaceheating and process heating. Biomasselectrical co-generation facilities repre-sent about 1% of the nation’s installedgenerating capacity. The pulp andpaper industry depends on biomass for about one half of its energy needs.Wood is also used for heating in 21% ofthe residences in Canada (7% for primaryheating, 14% for supplemental heating).

The combustion of wood does produceCO2 and other greenhouse gases, but itis assumed that, in the long run, thereare no net emissions of CO2 from thissource because emissions are offset bycarbon stored in the ecosystem by forestregrowth.

Active solar energy supplies about0.003% of Canada’s energy require-ments. Approximately 12 000 residentialand 300 commercial/industrial solar hot-water systems are currently in use.Photovoltaic installations in Canadatotal less than 1 MW and are mostly limited to niche applications, such aspower for navigational buoys. Passivesolar applications are mainly found inbuildings for space heating purposes.

Wind power is used to generate elec-tricity or to pump water for irrigationpurposes. There are several thousandwind-powered water-pumping unitsand 500 small electricity productionunits across Canada. Wind poweraccounts for about 7 MW of installedelectricity capacity.

Ground source heat pumps use earthand/or ground water as the source ofheat in winter and as the “sink” forheat removed in summer. It is estimatedthat there are about 27 000 such systems installed in Canada. This corresponds to about 350 MW of avoided electrical generation capacity.

Tidal power, or harnessing the kineticenergy of tides to produce electricity,

is another renewable energy option. A 17.8 MW low-head demonstrationplant exists in Nova Scotia. The furtherapplication of tidal power is currentlyconstrained by site availability, highcosts per kilowatt of installed capacity,and environmental concerns (eg.,migrating fish stocks).

In order to achieve greater use ofrenewable energy sources, issues such as costs relative to traditional, non-renewable energy, adequate infra-structure support, access to provincialelectricity grids and environmental concerns will have to be addressed.

Electricity Production

Electricity production amounted toabout 502 terawatt hours (TWh) in 1992.Hydro electricity accounted for 62% oftotal production, while conventionalthermal (mainly coal) generationtotalled 23% and nuclear power 15%.Imports of electricity amounted to 6.5 TWh and exports to 31.5 TWh. Total domestic demand in 1992 was476.5 TWh. There are significant regionaldifferences in electrical generation.British Columbia, Manitoba, Quebec andNewfoundland rely primarily on hydropower to meet their electricity needs,whereas Alberta, Saskatchewan, NovaScotia and New Brunswick rely on fossilfuels (mainly coal). Ontario, with thelargest generating capacity, has a mix of hydro, fossil fuel and nuclear power.Non-utility generation (mostly fromhydro) accounted for about 10% of allelectricity generated in Canada.

Energy Efficiency and Conservation

Energy efficiency and energy conserva-tion play important roles in the energysector by reducing energy requirementsand by freeing up energy saved in oneapplication so that it can be used inanother, thereby delaying or avoidingthe need to develop new energy sup-plies and bring them on stream. Energyefficiency and conservation measurescan also help limit fossil-fuel-producedgreenhouse gas emissions (see Chapter5 for further discussion).

Chapter 3


The Nature of Canada’s Energy Consumption

In 1991, total primary energy demandwas 9 108 PJ. (One petajoule is equivalentto 165 000 barrels of oil). Total secondaryenergy demand (ie., energy consumed bythe end user) was 6 547 PJ. Secondaryenergy demand grew at an averageannual rate of 1.7% from 1971 to 1991(compared to 4.2% annually from 1950to 1970).

Figure 3.6 outlines estimated Canadianenergy demand by fuel type and sector in 1992.

Canada is one of the most energy-inten-sive developed countries in the world, as indicated in Figure 3.7. There are several reasons for this. Many industriesare based on natural-resource extractionand processing, which demand highenergy inputs. For example, pulp andpaper, iron and steel, mining, petro-chemical, and non-ferrous metal produc-tion accounted for about 75% of theindustrial sector’s energy requirements.

Energy intensity (defined as total secondary energy demand divided byreal GDP) declined by 1.1% annually

between 1971 and 1981, and by 1.8%annually between 1981 and 1991, due to such factors as energy prices, the levelof economic activity, fuel switching, capital stock changes, energy efficiencyimprovements and government policies.

Economic activity, climate, geography,low population density, relatively lowenergy prices and an affluent lifestyleamong most Canadians (which gives rise to a high use of energy-consumingproducts, a preference for private auto-mobiles and single-family houses) allcontribute to high energy use per capita in Canada.

Energy efficiency and conservation arehaving an impact on energy consump-tion. However, many problems arise intrying to single out the effect of energyefficiency from other factors affectingenergy consumption (e.g., level of economic activity, fuel conversions).Nevertheless, it is worth noting thatfrom 1979 to 1985 secondary energy useas a ratio of GDP declined an average of 2.71% annually, and CO2 emissionsdeclined 1.19% annually. During thesame period, oil prices tripled, and eco-nomic output per capita and population


Figure 3.6

Primary and Secondary

Energy Demand,1992

Source:Natural Resources

Canada

Hydro included at 3.6 MJ/kwhNuclear included at 11.6 MJ/kwh

"Other" includes wood, and other renewablesRefined Petroleum Products 4

31

2

growth declined, relative to precedingyears. It was also a period of major gov-ernment investment in off-oil programsand energy efficiency improvements, aswell as a continuing movement to nuclearpower. From 1985 to 1990, secondaryenergy use as a ratio of GDP also declined,by 2.05% annually, but CO2 emissionsincreased by 1.48% a year. This periodsaw a dramatic decline in oil prices, GDPand population growth rates that werecloser to earlier levels, and a reducedemphasis on energy conservation.(Further discussion of these factors is found in Chapter 12.)

The Energy Sector’s Role in the Economy

In 1992, the energy sector accounted for 6.7% of Canada’s GDP, worth $33.5 billion (1986 dollars). The energysector is relatively large compared toother sectors of the economy that couldbe affected by climate change. Forestry,for example, accounted for 2.9%, or$14.9 billion, of total GDP; agriculture2.2%, or $11 billion; fisheries, 0.2%, or$0.8 billion; and water transport 0.2%, or $1.2 billion. The energy sector alsoaccounts for 17% of investment, 11% ofthe value of exports and 3% of nationalemployment.

Petroleum and natural gas explorationand production activities are importantto both the national and regionaleconomies. They accounted for $12.6 bil-lion of GDP and over 58 700 jobs in 1992.Oil and natural gas transportation andgathering accounted for $3.6 billion in

GDP and over 8 900 jobs. Petroleum pro-cessing contributed $1.9 billion to GDPand over 17 300 jobs, while the petrole-um wholesale and retail trade employedover 93 800 people. Natural gas distribu-tion accounted for $1.8 billion in GDPand 15 300 jobs. The related equipmentand service sector also makes an impor-tant contribution to the economy.

Electrical utilities contributed $13.9 billionto GDP in 1992 and jobs for over 98 400people. Coal used for thermal electricalproduction contributed $0.9 billion toGDP and jobs for 8 500, while uraniummining and processing for nuclear powerproduction accounted for $500 million to$1 billion in GDP and employment for 2 500. In addition to the above, thenuclear industry, aside from electrical utilities, deals with the design, productionand servicing of reactors, as well asnuclear research and development.

Information on the renewable energyindustry is fragmentary and incompletesince it involves many small installations,and energy production and use that is integrated into plant design and operation. However, it appears that theindustry has about 160 firms employing3 500 people.

Statistics are not available on the contri-bution of energy efficiency investmentsto GDP and employment because ofproblems associated with establishingcriteria for what constitutes an “energyefficiency industry” for data collectionpurposes (e.g., home builders may useonly some energy efficiency techniquesin their construction work).

Total Canadian energy productionexceeded total domestic requirements by 45% in 1991. While this represents asizeable energy surplus, it under-repre-sents the actual size of Canadian energyexports, since Canada also imports aboutone quarter of its energy needs becauseof regional trading patterns in energy.For example, in 1992, Canada exportedcrude oil worth $6.7 billion and imported$4.2 billion of crude. Natural gas exportswere $4.6 billion and imports $50 million;electricity exports $708 million andimports $77 million; coal exports $1.7 billion and imports $594 million;


Chapter 3

Figure 3.7

Canada Is anEnergy-IntensiveCountry

*tonnes of oil equivalent

Source:Natural ResourcesCanada


uranium exports $646 million and imports$114 million. Interprovincial trade in fuelsand energy is also important.

Energy and Climate Change

Human activities contribute to bothsources and sinks of greenhouse gases.However, the role that energy produc-tion and consumption play in meetingthe needs of a modern society makesenergy the single most significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.Fossil fuels are major sources of carbondioxide. The carbon content of fossilfuels is highest with coal, then petroleumproducts, and lowest with natural gas.

Figure 3.8 shows Canada’s greenhousegas emissions and notes energy’s contri-bution to these levels. The data arebased on IPCC 100-year global warmingpotentials and are presented in CO2equivalents (estimates for land changeshave not been included).

The production and consumption ofenergy accounts for 88% of Canada’sgreenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, 98%of Canada’s CO2 emissions, 32% of CH4emissions, and 52% of N2O emissions areenergy-related.

Attempts to limit carbon dioxide and other energy-related greenhousegas emissions will have an impact onhow Canadians produce and consumeenergy in the various sectors of theeconomy and in their daily lives. As aconsequence, the energy sector itselfmay face significant changes.


Figure 3.8

AnthropogenicEmissions ofGreenhouse

Gases in Canada,1990

Source:Environment Canada,

Natural ResourcesCanada

Estimated using 100 year Global Warming Pot

Contribution of EneProduction and Consum

(Excluding Biomass)(%)

As noted in the introduction to thisreport, the Framework Convention onClimate Change (FCCC) recognizes thataction must be taken on a wide varietyof fronts if humanity is to respond tothe challenges and opportunities posedby climate change. While it is essentialto take steps to limit net greenhousegas emissions, the Convention makes itclear that action is also needed in theareas of adaptation, public education,research and international co-opera-tion. Canada is a strong supporter ofthis multi-faceted approach.

Every Canadian contributes to the cli-mate change problem. Consequently,every Canadian, and all sectors ofCanadian society, must be involved indesigning and implementing solutions.

This chapter examines Canada’s politicalinstitutions and the framework that hasbeen established to guide Canada’s cli-mate change strategy.

Political Institutions

Canada is a federation of ten provincesand two territories. Federal and provin-cial/territorial governments share politi-cal authority and jurisdiction. Thisshared responsibility for governing thecountry is very evident in the area ofenvironmental policy. The CanadianConstitution, written long before envi-ronmental issues became a prominentpolitical concern, is silent on the ques-tion of which level of government hasjurisdiction in this area. Therefore, thefederal and provincial governmentsexercise jurisdiction over the environ-

ment in accordance with the responsi-bilities assigned to them under theConstitution.

This complex division of powers meansthat federal, provincial/territorial andmunicipal governments have jurisdic-tion over several policy areas relevant toclimate change. An effective response,therefore, requires all levels of govern-ment to work together to deviseprocesses and mechanisms that developa common understanding of policyobjectives and facilitate co-operation inpolicy implementation.

A Framework for Action

In November 1990, the environment andenergy ministers of Canada’s federal andprovincial/territorial governmentsreleased a draft National ActionStrategy on Global Warming. It sets outa framework within which governments,individual Canadians and all sectors ofthe Canadian economy can identify theircontribution to Canada’s climate changegoals. The Strategy establishes threebasic, integrated components: limitingand reducing the emission of green-house gases, anticipating and preparingfor potential climatic changes thatCanada may experience as a result ofglobal warming, and improving scientif-ic understanding and predictive capabili-ties with respect to climate change.

Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Canada’s first step in limiting green-house gas emissions is its commitmentto stabilize domestic emissions of car-


Chapter 4



bon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhousegases not controlled by the MontrealProtocol at 1990 levels by the year 2000.This commitment is a national goal thatdoes not directly pertain to specificregions or sectors.

More ambitious commitments will beconsidered, within the context of tar-gets and schedules agreed to interna-tionally, as scientific uncertaintiessurrounding the problem of climatechange are better understood.

The draft National Action Strategyreflects an understanding that action tomeet Canada’s stabilization commitmentshould be based on four key principles:

Comprehensiveness: All greenhousegases, sources and sinks should beaddressed.

International Co-operation: Whileundertaking its own domestic action,Canada should work with other coun-tries to develop joint strategies andimplementation plans.

Flexibility: A phased, progressiveresponse to the global warming chal-lenge should accommodate any new scientific understanding related to thedimensions of the problem and theeffectiveness of limitation techniques.

Respect for Regional Differences:Because Canada is such a large andregionally diverse country, limitationstrategies should vary from region toregion, recognizing differences in eco-nomic circumstances and resourceendowments while also ensuring thatnational measures do not have aninequitable regional impact.

As the first step in meeting Canada’sstabilization commitment, govern-ments, in consultation with stakehold-ers, are developing or implementingmeasures to limit greenhouse gas emis-sions that make economic sense in theirown right or that serve multiple policyobjectives. Action to address otherissues, such as acid rain and smog, canalso lead to reductions in greenhousegas emissions.

The effectiveness of these measures willbe assessed to determine the need for

further action. This assessment will con-tinue to be developed and included infuture national reports.

Adaptation

Developing policies to prepare for cli-mate change requires an understandingof current climates, how they arechanging, and the social and economicimpact of those changes. According tothe draft National Action Strategy, thepotential for adaptation to climatechange will be addressed systematicallyby:monitoring the environmentalimpact; assessing the correspondingsocio-economic impact; informingCanadians about the nature of theimpact; and reviewing and modifyinggovernment policies and programs.

Improving Scientific Understanding

While the international scientific com-munity agrees that climate change willoccur, it is uncertain about its magni-tude, timing and regional distribution.The draft National Action Strategy sug-gests integrated regional-impact stud-ies, climatic-data collection and analysis,climate system modelling and participa-tion in global-climate-system researchprojects as ways in which Canada canimprove scientific understanding of climate change.

Governments are now working togeth-er to codify the principles and elementsof the draft National Action Strategy infederal/provincial agreements. At thesame time, governments and otherstakeholders have undertaken a widerange of initiatives to support theobjectives of the draft National ActionStrategy. Many of these initiatives arediscussed in some detail in subsequentchapters of this national report.

Canadians Working Together

While the draft National ActionStrategy provides the basic frameworkfor a Canadian response to climatechange, there is also the need forprocesses that will bring stakeholders


together to help develop consensusaround a national action program —action that Canadians must take collec-tively to respond to the challenge of climate change.

At the same time, governments, at thefederal and provincial/territorial levelsin particular, have a widely sharedobjective to address all atmosphericissues in a comprehensive, co-ordinated,more efficient and effective manner. InNovember 1993, a Comprehensive AirQuality Framework for Canada wasapproved at a joint meeting of federaland provincial/territorial energy andenvironment ministers. This frameworkwill be implemented through a newNational Air Issues Co-ordinatingMechanism that is already in operation.The management framework provides a formal basis for all jurisdictions to co-ordinate, and co-operate in, themanagement of all air issues, includingacid deposition, smog, ozone depletionand, of course, climate change.

The National Air Issues Co-ordinatingMechanism includes a national ClimateChange Task Group — a multi-stake-holder group whose members are fromthe government, business, labour, con-sumer and environmental sectors, andhave accepted the responsibility ofdeveloping a national action program,completing this national report, andproviding advice to the Government ofCanada on Canadian positions in inter-national negotiations.

The objectives of the national actionprogram that is presently being devel-oped are the following:

• To enable Canada to meet all itscommitments under the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change;

• In the short term (until the year2000), to eliminate the gap betweenstabilization and our current pro-jected emissions;

• To ensure the co-ordination of thegreenhouse gas reduction effortsand activities of the federal govern-ment, provinces, industry and publicorganizations;

• To manage the framework requiredto reduce emissions of greenhousegases and the climate change issuein the most effective and efficientmanner possible;

• To identify, assess, prioritize andrecommend the most effective mea-sures to achieve Canada’s climatechange goals, and develop a logicalsequence for their implementation;

• To develop a plan to include a system to prioritize measures;

• To develop the system needed toensure that action is taken and thatthose who are required to takeaction remain accountable;

• To develop a plan that includes anassessment of adaptation responses.

In their November 1993 joint meeting,energy and environment ministers, inreviewing the draft version of thisnational report, noted that furtheraction is needed in the area of globalwarming. Consequently, they instructedofficials to proceed with the develop-ment of options to meet Canada’s current commitment to stabilize green-house gas emissions by the year 2000and to develop sustainable options toachieve further progress in the reduc-tion of emissions by the year 2005.

To support the Climate Change TaskGroup in meeting these objectives, fourmulti-stakeholder working groups havebeen formed covering Measures,Inventories, Assessment andForecasting.

Canada practised information andadvice sharing for some time before theadvent of the new National Air IssuesCo-ordinating Mechanism. Indeed, theMechanism has emerged from struc-tures that have served us well in thepast, including the Provincial-TerritorialAdvisory Committee on Climate Change(PTAC) and the Climate ChangeConvention Advisory Committee(CCCAC).

PTAC was formed as a government-leveladvisory body to guide the develop-ment of Canada’s position during theinternational Climate Change


Chapter 4


Convention negotiations, but over timeits focus shifted to the domestic implica-tions of climate change.

CCCAC was a non-government stake-holder advisory body that advised theCanadian government during negotia-tions for the Convention. Both the PTACand the CCCAC have been disbanded infavour of the new National Air IssuesCo-ordinating Mechanism which, for climate change, integrates governmentsand stakeholders in one mechanism.This mechanism provides a forum formulti-stakeholder involvement in allaspects of Canadian climate change policy and reflects the widely heldbelief that Canadians must be involvedin the development and implementa-

tion of Canada’s responses to the climate change issue. This approachimplies that Canadians should have anopportunity to assess and review whatCanada has done. This national reportprovides that opportunity.

Canada’s national report has beendeveloped primarily through the co-operation of federal, provincial andterritorial governments, but it includesinput from municipal governments andnon-government stakeholders. Thedraft national report was distributed tothe public, in order to give all interestedparties an opportunity to comment. Thisfinal version incorporates their input tothe extent possible.


Canada believes that an effectiveresponse to climate change requiresaction on a number of fronts. While acommitment to limit net greenhousegas emissions is fundamental to mitigating climate change, action is also needed in areas like adaptation,education, research and international co-operation. Canada has obligations inall of these areas under the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC).

This section of Canada’s national reportdescribes what Canada is doing to fulfillthese obligations. In keeping withCanada’s view that all Canadians mustbe involved in designing and imple-menting actions that address climatechange, this section looks at actionsbeing taken by federal, provincial/territorial and municipal governments; voluntary organizations; environmentalgroups and the private sector.

This section does not present the fullextent of Canadian activities related toclimate change. Possible future action isnot discussed. Each chapter is devotedto one of Canada’s obligations underthe FCCC.

Chapter 5

Measures to Mitigate Climate Change

This chapter provides an overviewof activities in Canada to limitanthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, and protect and enhance greenhouse gas sinks.Examples are provided of approachesbeing taken: regulatory and economic instruments, educational

initiatives that support these instru-ments, and research, developmentand demonstration programs.

Chapter 6

Adaptation to Climate Change

The Canadian government isresponding to the challenge ofadapting to future climate change.This chapter describes howCanadians are adapting to theCanadian climate to illustrate thetypes of activities that may beneeded in the future.

Chapter 7

Increasing Public Awareness of Climate Change

This chapter examines what is being done in Canada to increasepublic awareness of climate change. The federal government’sEnvironmental Citizenship program,and a host of initiatives by othergovernments and stakeholders allaim to generate public support foraction to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Chapter 8


Canada’s participation in studies to improve the understanding of climate processes, climate modelling, the impact of climatechange, and the socio-economicimpact of measures to mitigate climate change are discussed in this chapter.


Section 2

Canadian Actions to Address Climate Change


Chapter 9


A brief overview of how the federalgovernment is taking climatechange considerations into accountin its policy-making processes is presented in this chapter. It reviewsexisting programs and processes forthe environmental assessment ofnew initiatives.

Chapter 10

International Co-operation

This chapter explores what Canadais doing at the international level onthe climate change issue. Itdescribes Canadian efforts to assistdeveloping countries in meetingtheir FCCC obligations through thetransfer of financial resources andtechnologies, and looks at Canadianco-operation with other developedcountries on the climate changeissue.

Canadian Actions to Address Climate Change

Under article 4.2(a) of the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC),industrialized countries must adoptpolicies and take measures to limitanthropogenic emissions of greenhousegases not covered under the MontrealProtocol and to protect and enhancegreenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs.Under article 4.2(b), these countriesmust provide, to the Conference of the Parties, detailed information on,among other things, policies and measures that will contribute to returning net emissions to 1990 levels by the end of this decade.

Overview of Measures

A significant number of measures in all Canadian jurisdictions (federal,provincial/territorial and municipal) are under way or being planned to dealwith climate change. Utilities, manufac-turing firms, resource-sector industries,industrial associations and non-govern-mental organizations are also takingaction. The aim is to achieve one ormore of the following objectives.

• Limit greenhouse gas emissions andenhance the capacity of greenhousegas sinks and reservoirs through a combination of regulatory, economic and voluntary measures.

• Improve education and training to provide Canadians with better information about options to limitnet emissions and to encourage voluntary action.

• Promote research, development anddemonstration activities to increase

the technological options for limit-ing net emissions of greenhousegases.

Measures taken to date are generallyreferred to as “first-step” initiatives.These measures make good economicsense in their own right and address arange of important social, economicand environmental policy objectives, inaddition to those related to climatechange. Most of these measures limitcarbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4)and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions byreducing fossil fuel use throughincreased efficiency and conservationand greater use of alternative, less carbon-intensive or non-carbon sourcesof energy. Other measures addressnon-energy sources of greenhousegases and enhance the capacity ofgreenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs.

These activities are consistent withCanada’s comprehensive approach to limiting emissions. This approach,which addresses both sources and sinks of all major greenhouse gases, isenshrined in the Framework Conventionon Climate Change. It is a key elementof Canada’s draft National ActionStrategy on Global Warming.

The Convention also permits countriesto act jointly with other countries to meet specific emission commitments.This provision, known as joint imple-mentation, allows industrialized coun-tries to invest in cost-effective emissionlimitation projects in other countries aspart of their action plans for meetingtheir own Convention commitments.


Chapter 5



However, only the concept of jointimplementation has been recognized inthe Convention. The Conference ofParties is required at its first session —expected in the spring of 1995 — tomake decisions regarding criteria andprocedures for joint implementation.

Education, training and public awarenessprograms are key to Canada’s efforts tomitigate climate change. Informationprograms provide Canadians with a bet-ter understanding of climate change andits possible effects. They also inform tar-geted audiences about existing optionsfor reducing emissions and enhancingsink capacities. Information programsinclude printed and audio-visual materi-als, seminars and workshops, energyaudits, advisory services, displays andexhibitions, labelling requirements andadvertising. They complement other,more direct measures and, often throughmoral suasion, encourage voluntaryaction by individuals and companies.

Research, development and demonstra-tion programs, designed to enhance andexpand the options available in Canadato mitigate climate change are alsoimportant. They promote basic andapplied research, and the developmentand integration into the marketplace ofnew, innovative products and productionprocesses. These programs generally havea long-term effect on emissions and sinks,depending on how quickly, and to whatextent, the marketplace integrates newtechnologies and production processes.

The strategies and measures discussedin this chapter provide illustrative examples of activities in Canada toaddress climate change.

Canada’s Policy Response toClimate Change

The draft National Action Strategy onGlobal Warming, discussed in Chapter 4of this report, outlined Canada’sresponse to climate change. Federal and provincial/territorial governmentsare working together in consultationwith stakeholders to elaborate furtheron the Strategy.

Collaborative approaches involving awide range of stakeholders, which promote the sharing of ideas and infor-mation and help build consensus onsolutions, are fundamental to Canada’sresponse to climate change and otheratmospheric and environmental issues.As a result, many governments andstakeholders in Canada have introducedenvironmental strategies or actionplans. Several provinces, particularlySaskatchewan, Alberta and BritishColumbia, have also undertaken exten-sive public consultation. While all themeasures outlined have not been fullyimplemented, they do indicate clearcommitments by governments andstakeholders in Canada to address climate change.

• The Nova Scotia Action Strategy on Global Warming (First Phase)established the provincial goal ofstabilizing energy-related green-house gas emissions at 1990 levelsby the year 2000. This is based on a comprehensive greenhouse gas“budget” being developed by theprovince. To achieve this goal, Nova Scotia will implement amulti-phased action plan of mea-sures and programs developed inconsultation with stakeholders and other governments.

• As part of its commitment to theResponsible Care Program of theCanadian Chemical ProducersAssociation, Du Pont Canada estab-lished the goal of reducing N2Oemissions from its adipic acid plant in Maitland, Ontario, by 95%,beginning in 1996. This plant is a major source of N2O emissionsin Canada.

• Alberta’s Clean Air Strategy resultedfrom a broadly based consultationprocess managed by a 13-member,multi-stakeholder advisory group.Priority areas identified by thegroup and endorsed by the Albertagovernment include establishing acomprehensive air quality manage-ment system and implementingmeasures to promote cost-effectiveenergy efficiency and conservation


activities that make good economicsense in their own right.

The International Council for LocalEnvironmental Initiatives (ICLEI) con-ducted a survey in 1993 of actions onclimate change in major cities andmunicipalities across Canada. The surveyindicates that Ottawa, Toronto, Regina,Edmonton, Vancouver, Victoria and theregional government of MetropolitanToronto all have commitments toreduce CO2 emissions. These cities haveindicated they will meet these commit-ments through a variety of local actions,including municipal building and vehi-cle fleet retrofits, and sponsorship oflocal energy efficiency projects.

The production and consumption of fossil fuels account for 88% of totalgreenhouse gas emissions from anthro-pogenic sources and 98% of CO2 emis-sions in Canada. As a result, they are aprimary focus for addressing climatechange. Many governments and stake-holders have announced programs,strategies and action plans to improveenergy efficiency and promote greateruse of alternative energy, while ensur-ing that other energy security and eco-nomic development priorities are met.

• The Government of Canada’sEfficiency and Alternative Energy(EAE) Initiative, a key component ofCanada’s Green Plan, provides aframework for a range of federalenergy efficiency and alternativeenergy initiatives by NaturalResources Canada. These initiatives,involving all types of fuels and sec-tors of the Canadian economy, arebeing implemented in close consul-tation and co-operation with theprovinces/territories and stakehold-ers. The EAE Program has been allo-cated $140 million over six years.

• Newfoundland and Labrador’sStrategic Plan for Energy Efficiencyand Alternative Energy, 1991–2000,developed by a ministerial advisorycouncil, calls for improvements inenergy efficiency through new tech-nologies and better operating prac-tices for vehicles, equipment andbuildings. The Plan aims to improve

provincial energy efficiency per dol-lar of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)by 20% and increase the province’salternative energy use (wood waste,peat, small hydro) from 8% to 12%by the year 2000.

• Nova Scotia’s Energy Strategy, devel-oped after extensive public consulta-tion, represents a framework forpolicies and programs to be intro-duced over the remainder of thedecade. Improved energy efficiency,diversification of energy sources,maintenance of environmental qual-ity and reduced dependence on for-eign oil are the cornerstones of thestrategy. Through energy efficiency,growth in Nova Scotia’s energydemand is expected to fall from thecurrent 2.3% a year to less than 1%by the end of the decade.

• The five-year Canada–Prince EdwardIsland Co-operation Agreement onalternative energy development andenergy efficiency was signed in 1990to increase production of alterna-tive energy from local resources andto hasten the adoption of innova-tive energy production and conser-vation technologies in the province.

• Quebec’s 1992 Stratégie québécoised’efficacité énergétique proposed anumber of goals, an action frame-work and tools aimed at improvingenergy efficiency in the province.This strategy, which covers all ener-gy-consuming sectors and all formsof energy, aims at a 15% improve-ment in overall energy efficiency inthe Quebec economy over the next10 years. Combined with continuedreliance on hydro-electricity, thisstrategy should enable Quebec tocontinue achieving reductions in percapita CO2 emissions.

• A discussion paper by Imperial Oilon global warming response optionsoutlines a detailed action plan. Itincludes a strong emphasis on ener-gy efficiency in the company’s oper-ations and stresses the need toexplore CO2 disposal opportunitiesfurther, including the use of CO2 inenhanced oil recovery.


Chapter 5


Some provinces have indicated, eitherdirectly or through their electrical utilities, how much electric power theywould like to see drawn from alterna-tive renewable energy sources.

• Alberta’s Small Power R&D Programdirects TransAlta to accept up to 125 MW of electricity from renewableenergy sources at set prices. NovaScotia Power also has been directedby the province to permit a certainlevel of renewable energy supplyfrom independent power producers.

The NOx/VOCs Management Plan willalso make a contribution to limitinggreenhouse gas emissions in a compre-hensive manner. Initiated by theCanadian Council of Ministers of theEnvironment, the Plan states its first goalas the reduction of ground-level ozoneepisodes (one-hour) to less than 82 partsper billion by the year 2005. Many of thePlan’s recommended actions areaddressed through energy efficiency andconservation improvements — key ele-ments of Canada’s climate change strat-egy. Several multi-stakeholder workingand advisory groups across the countryassisted in the development of the Plan,which federal, provincial and municipalgovernments have started to implement.Public education and science programsare an integral part of this process.

• The Air Issues Task Group, under theCanadian Association of PetroleumProducers (CAPP), established athree-phase approach to climatechange: improve scientific under-standing, develop an inventory ofCH4 and volatile organic compounds(VOCs) from the Canadian upstreamoil and gas industry, and developCH4 and VOC control options andcost assessments for the industry.The Association sponsored work-shops, reports and training guidesto promote these objectives.

Emissions Limitation

Measures to limit CO2 and other green-house gas emissions deal with a rangeof activities, areas and products includ-

ing transportation; electricity genera-tion; lighting; space heating and cool-ing; use of equipment, machinery andhousehold appliances; resources andmanufacturing; and management ofsolid wastes. Because a large proportionof such emissions are energy-related,many of the limitation measures focuson improving energy efficiency and pro-moting the use of alternative, less carbon-intensive or non-carbon sourcesof energy.

Canada believes that strategic and competitive economic advantages existfor countries that improve their energy efficiency. New technologies open upmany business opportunities at homeand abroad, and energy savings helpCanadian industries compete in worldmarkets.

In the longer term, meeting Canada’sclimate change objectives depends onthe nation’s ability to move to alterna-tive energy sources and to non-carbonsources of energy that have an accept-able environmental impact. There arecurrently economic, environmental andtechnological constraints that limitwider application of some energysources.

Governments and stakeholders inCanada are also addressing greenhousegas emissions that are not energy-related,particularly CH4 and N2O. Initiatives arein place to reduce emissions associatedwith various resource-based activitiessuch as coal mining and certain industri-al processes.

Transportation

The vast distances between urban centres,the often difficult driving conditions ina cold climate and the Canadian prefer-ence for, and dependence on, the auto-mobile all contribute to high emissionlevels from the transportation sector inCanada. In fact, transportation accountsfor 32% of CO2 emissions and 41% ofN2O emissions in Canada, primarily as aresult of gasoline use by automobilesand light-duty trucks, and diesel use byheavy-duty motor vehicles. Road trans-port in Canada accounts for 80% oftransportation energy use; air, rail and


marine transport together account forthe remaining 20%. The historical use ofprivate automobiles as opposed to masspublic transit systems, because of con-sumer preferences, urban design and relatively lower gasoline prices, hasmeant that most mitigative measures are directed at private vehicles.

Measures to reduce energy use andgreenhouse gas emissions associatedwith road transportation have one ormore of the following objectives.

• Increase fuel efficiency in motorvehicle stock through improvementsin vehicle and engine design.

• Improve fuel efficiency in vehicleoperation and maintenancethrough driver education programs.

• Increase the use of less carbon-inten-sive fuels, such as compressed naturalgas (CNG) and propane, as alterna-tives to gasoline and diesel for publicand private motor vehicle use.

• Make changes to road infrastructureand improve system management toreduce congestion in urban areas.

• Increase the use of transportation-demand management practices,including alternative modes oftransportation, high occupancyvehicle priority, ride sharing andtelecommuting.

Fuel efficiency standards have played akey role in reducing North Americantransportation demands. In 1978, theGovernment of Canada initiated theMotor Vehicle Fuel ConsumptionStandards Program with annual volun-tary fuel consumption standards for newautomobiles sold in Canada. Because ofthe highly integrated nature of theNorth American automobile market,these standards were patterned after theUS Corporate Average Fuel Economy(CAFE) program. The Standards Programin Canada encouraged vehicle manufac-turers to maintain average fuel consump-tion for all new automobiles sold inCanada below 8.6 L/100 km. The currentaverage is 8.2 L/100 km. Governmentsare considering ways to achieve evenfurther improvements in fuel efficiency.

While fuel efficiency standards are animportant policy tool for increasingvehicle fuel efficiency, market forces are also highly effective in encouragingconsumers to reduce their use of energy.For example, automobile prices can bealtered through a combination of taxeson gas “guzzlers” and rebates for gas“sippers” to encourage consumers topurchase more fuel-efficient vehicles.

• Ontario’s Tax for Fuel Conservationprogram, the first of its kind inNorth America, applies a graduatedtax to new vehicles with a fuel con-sumption exceeding 6 L/100 km. Thetax ranges from $75 to $4,400 on allnew cars sold in the province.Ontario also offers a rebate of up to$100 towards the purchase of anautomobile that uses less than 6L/100 km.

There are many information and train-ing programs in Canada to improve driving and vehicle maintenance prac-tices, and reduce fuel consumption,especially in the commercial sector.

• Natural Resources Canada imple-mented the Pro-Trucker Programwith several provincial governmentsand trucking associations to promotegreater fuel economy in the truck-ing industry. This program givestruck drivers information on morefuel-efficient driving and mainte-nance techniques, the cost-effective-ness of various energy efficiencyimprovements and the latest tech-nological advances in commercialtransportation.

• Natural Resources Canada recentlylaunched the Pro-Fisher Program topromote greater fuel efficiency inCanada’s marine sector. Under theProgram, fishermen are trained inimproved fuel efficiency and main-tenance practices.

• British Columbia’s Fuel SmartProgram encourages urban com-muters to share rides and reducecongestion. The Program also pro-vides information to private auto-mobile drivers on how to reducefuel consumption and minimize the


Chapter 5


environmental impact associatedwith the operation, maintenanceand purchase of motor vehicles.

Alternative transportation fuels fromnatural gas and biomass are beginningto play a role in reducing automotiveemissions and improving urban air quali-ty. Motor vehicles that use propane andnatural gas produce fewer CO2 emissionsthan those that use gasoline or diesel.The impact of alternative fuel use on netgreenhouse gas emissions is uncertain,given the various factors that must betaken into account, such as the sourcesof the fuel, the combustion technologyused and even the method of supplyingvehicles that can run on alternative fuels.

In Canada today, there are over 140 000vehicles powered by propane and 5000fuelling stations. As for natural gas,approximately 200 public and privatefuelling stations serve the 33 000 naturalgas vehicles in the country. The fuel usedby these propane and natural gas vehi-cles accounts for 2% of motor vehicle fuelused in Canada today. The developmentof these fuels was encouraged by federaland provincial market incentives, andresearch and development programs.

Major disincentives to using propane andnatural gas for automotive purposesinclude high conversion costs (often ashigh as $3,000), poor access to fuellingstations and heavy fuel storage cylindersthat take up considerable trunk space.Several provincial governments now provide automobile owners with directfinancial incentives to convert to propaneor natural gas, and efforts are under wayin many provinces to increase the marketpenetration of alternative-fuel vehicles.

• Natural Resources Canada imple-mented three programs to encour-age the market for natural gas vehicles: the Natural Gas VehicleProgram, the Natural Gas FuellingStation Program and the NaturalGas Vehicle Refuelling ApplianceProgram.

• Natural Resources Canada andNewfoundland have reached anagreement to introduce automotivepropane in that province. The

province is supporting propane useby reducing taxes on propane fuelfrom 13.7¢/L to 7¢/L. A blend ofgasoline and up to 10% ethanolproduced from renewable feed-stocks, such as grains and agricultur-al wastes, offers considerablepromise as an alternative trans-portation fuel, since it can be safelyused in existing motor vehicles without engine modifications.

• In 1992, the Government of Canadaeliminated the federal excise tax of8.5¢/L on the ethanol portion ofgasoline-ethanol fuel blends. Thischange stimulated interest in theproduction of fuel ethanol, and several new production projects are being studied. Some provinces,starting with Manitoba in 1990, also offer road tax remissions forethanol-gasoline blends.

• The Government of Canadalaunched a five-year initiative todevelop a commercially viableethanol industry in Canada. This initiative focuses mainly on researchand development of new ethanolproduction technologies and economic, environmental and market assessments.

• The Canada Centre for Mineral andEnergy Technology (CANMET) ofNatural Resources Canada hasworked with fuel associations, origi-nal equipment manufacturers andprovincial governments to researchand develop alternative transporta-tion fuels and efficiency technologies.CANMET and its partners are workingon technologies for ultra-low andzero emission vehicles such asfuel-cell and hybrid buses and electricvehicles. Research and developmentencompasses a complete systemsapproach, with technologies devel-oped for infrastructure, regulations,fuel quality and specifications, safety,combustion and storage. Researchand development continues to be animportant component of Canada’sefforts to improve the reliability andmarket viability of alternative transportation fuels.


Finally, revisions to municipal trans-portation plans and land use policy canhave a significant effect on energy usein urban transportation in Canada.Easing traffic congestion in major urbancentres significantly affects motor vehicle fuel consumption. Some ofCanada’s larger cities are implementingexclusive bus and high-occupancy vehi-cle lanes, and dedicated bicycle lanes,including Toronto, MetropolitanToronto, Montreal and Ottawa.Park-and-ride facilities in the suburbsencourage commuters to transfer fromtheir automobiles to public transit connections. The Greater VancouverRegional District, for example, conductedseveral studies to determine the energyand emissions effects of alternativetransportation and land use policiesthrough to the year 2021.

Electricity Generation

Fossil fuel use associated with generat-ing electricity is the single, largest stationary source of greenhouse gasemissions in Canada. While less thanone fifth of electricity in Canada isbased on fossil fuels, thermal electricitygeneration accounts for 20% of totaldomestic CO2, 2% of N2O and 1% ofCH4 emissions.

Reduced greenhouse gas emissions canbe achieved through greater use ofelectricity supply options that are lesscarbon intensive. Technological andprocess improvements are leading tomore efficient production and transmis-sion of electricity. In addition, to easeoverall user requirements, many electri-cal utilities in Canada are turning todemand-side management (DSM) initia-tives to encourage energy efficiencyand conservation.

Other Supply Options

Electricity generated by small indepen-dent or “parallel” power producers nowaccounts for 10% of Canada’s total gen-eration. This electricity may be pur-chased directly by the major utility com-panies or used to meet the producers’needs. Non-utility generation (NUG)projects are usually smaller than tradi-

tional utility-owned power plants andgenerally rely on hydro power, naturalgas and renewable wastes. All threeenergy sources can lead to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions if theyreplace coal or oil. They are typicallylocated close to consumers, therebyreducing transmission losses.

A central heating plant provides heat toseveral buildings such as hospital, university or government complexes, or large industrial sites. Referred to as district heating, this central heatingsource can be more efficient than havingindividual buildings rely on their own,dedicated heating systems. Some districtheating systems make use of innovativeapproaches to take full advantage ofnearby water sources for heat pumpsand cooling. Others make use of bio-mass. In Charlottetown, Prince EdwardIsland, a wood-fuelled district heatingsystem is being expanded.

• Carleton University, with assistancefrom the Canada Centre for Mineraland Energy Technology and theGovernment of Ontario, has under-taken a heat pump project to heatand cool its buildings using groundwater located in an aquifer belowthe Ottawa campus. This heat pumpsystem serves 9 of the university’s 26buildings and has translated into a20% saving on the university’sannual energy bill. When the project is completed, by the end of the decade, this ground-waterheat pump system will be thelargest of its kind in North America.

• Through the Deep Lake WaterCooling (DLWC) project, a consortium of federal, provincialand municipal departments andagencies have studied the viabilityof using water from the depths of Lake Ontario to cool buildings inand near downtown Toronto. Ifimplemented, DLWC would reducethe amount of electricity requiredfor cooling buildings downtown bymore than 92%. The reduction inthe use of chlorofluorocarbons,another powerful greenhouse gas, would be even greater.


Chapter 5


Co-generation uses a single system toprovide both electricity and heat. It canreduce overall fossil fuel consumptionby as much as 40%. Co-generation captures otherwise wasted heat and isused in process applications and inbuilding complexes. One suggestedco-generation application would be tobuild or modify electric power plantsnear industrial or urban centres torecover and use heat normally wastedduring thermal-electricity generationfor process steam and space/water heating. Such steam can also be usedduring the summer months to drive central air conditioning systems. In addition to being more efficient thanusing individual air conditioning units,these systems do not use CFCs.

The pulp and paper industry uses woodwastes to generate both electricity andheat. In 1990, wood wastes met over60% of this industry’s energy require-ments.

Solar (photovoltaic) power is currentlyused in niche applications in Canada,but it is often constrained by high costs.Photovoltaic solar power is a practicaland cost-effective alternative for homeowners living outside the reach of electrical-utility networks who are normally dependent on diesel-poweredgenerators. Photovoltaic systems, forexample, help serve the power needs ofsmall communities in remote areas ofCanada’s north. Passive solar power hashad wider application in Canada’s morepopulated regions.

The cost of generating wind energy hasdecreased from about 22¢/kWh in 1983to about 6¢ in 1993. At these rates,wind energy is an economic alternativein niche markets and may be economicwithin the generating systems of someutilities.

In Canada, there are over 2 000 windwater-pumping turbines and about 8MW of wind-generating capacity. InAlberta, there are over 21 MW of wind-generating capacity operating orunder construction under the AlbertaSmall Power Research and DevelopmentProgram.

• SaskPower has undertaken resourceassessments in southeasternSaskatchewan and is committed tobuilding a 3 MW wind farm in early1995. Hydro-Québec has issued arequest for proposals for a 5 MWwind farm in the Magdalen Islands.

• Yukon studies, supported by theYukon Energy Corporation and theYukon government’s Department of Economic Development, indicatethat high altitude wind farmingmay become a viable energy supplyoption in Yukon in the future. TheYukon Energy Corporation hasinstalled a 150 KW commerciallyavailable wind turbine nearWhitehorse in order to monitor theperformance of commercially available equipment in Yukon’snorthern climate.

Demand-Side Management

Many electrical utilities in Canada haveimplemented demand-side manage-ment (DSM) programs to lessen theelectricity requirements of residential,commercial and industrial users. Undertraditional utility planning practices,increased load requirements meantbringing additional, often more costly,generating capacity on line. Sometimesthe additional capacity had significantenvironmental implications. Utilities arenow seeking ways to manage electricitydemand in a more cost-effective manner by adopting a more integratedapproach to planning that makesgreater use of measures to ease overalldemand requirements.

• As part of its Efficiency andAlternative Energy Initiative,Natural Resources Canada initiateda Partnership in Integrated ResourcePlanning to improve the effective-ness of Canadian electrical and natural gas utility resource plans. It promotes increased integration of non-utility generation, co-gener-ation, district heating and DSM into the utility planning processes.In addition to reducing general electricity demand (load reduction),DSM programs reduce peak electric-ity demand by shifting it to periods


when there is lighter demand (loadshifting) and without shifting it toanother period (peak clipping).Depending on the fuel used to gen-erate electricity, these initiatives canhave an important impact in reduc-ing greenhouse gas emissions.

Homeowners are familiar with directload-reduction measures. These measures help improve overall energyefficiency and promote greater energyconservation. Many utilities have implemented a wide range of directload-reduction measures. These include:

• financial incentives to develop moreenergy-efficient equipment andbuilding designs;

• technical and financial assistance,such as grants and low-cost loans, to upgrade lighting and heating, ventilation and air conditioning(HVAC) systems;

• rebates for purchases of energy-efficient equipment and majorhousehold appliances; and

• utility buy-backs of old, inefficientequipment and major householdappliances.

Other direct load-reduction initiativespromote the use of alternative energysources, such as natural gas, to meetnew and existing space- and water-heating requirements, especially during peak demand periods.

One of the most innovative DSM programs in Canada is the Power Smartinitiative. In 1990, Power SmartIncorporated was formed as a whollyowned subsidiary of BC Hydro to promote energy efficiency by workingdirectly with utilities, manufacturers,wholesalers, retailers and consumers.Most major electrical utilities and onenatural gas utility in Canada belong toPower Smart. It is a self-financing organization that relies on revenuesfrom membership agreements, nameand logo licensing agreements, andother fund-raising activities.

Power Smart promotes energy efficiencythrough energy producers and suppliersand companies involved in the manu-facture, distribution and sale of energy-consuming products. Member utilitiescan make use of customized, pre-pack-aged DSM program developmentopportunities; obtain greater leveragefor marketing and advertising budgetsthrough participation in national advertising; and take advantage ofpooled knowledge and research funds.

• A 10-year Power Smart program byManitoba Hydro hopes to reduceannual peak demand in theprovince by 285 MW and annualenergy consumption by 1049 GW/hby the year 2001. Power Smartincludes subsidies for automatictimers for motor vehicle blockheaters, installation of energy-efficient lighting for roadways andagricultural facilities, promotion ofmore energy-efficient home waterheaters and electrical appliances,and comprehensive retrofit activitiesfor commercial buildings.

• As part of its Power Smart program,TransAlta Utilities collects olderrefrigerators, that typically use twoto three times more energy thanrefrigerators manufactured today,and safely disposes of them. Themetals are recycled, and the refrig-erant and polyurethane foam arerecovered to prevent the release ofCFCs into the atmosphere.

• Hydro-Québec has incorporated $2 billion of energy efficiency initiatives into its development plan.The objective of these initiatives is toreduce provincial electricity demandby 9.3 TWh and by 2000 MW of peakpower by the year 2000.

• Espanola, in northern Ontario is the province’s first Power Savertown. Ontario Hydro audited theenergy efficiency of the 2300 homesand businesses in this community of6000 people. The utility providedfinancial incentives for 50 energyconservation retrofit measures andinitiated a community-wide educa-tion and energy awareness effort.


Chapter 5


Load-reduction efforts in Canada havealso focused on water heating, whichaccounts for approximately 15% of ener-gy use in the residential and commercialsectors. Several programs to reducewater heating and consumption, such aspromoting low-flow shower heads andwater-saving devices in toilets, have beenimplemented. Reduced water use meansless energy is required to heat and pumpwater and to treat waste water.

One of the more innovative approachesin Canada for reducing electricitydemand associated with domestic waterheating lies in the use of solar thermalsystems, which can reduce energy usedfor heating water by about 50%.

• The Canada Centre for Mineral andEnergy Technology launched theS-2000 Solar Water Heating Programin co-operation with electrical utilities and provinces in Canada.The Program evaluates and demon-strates the impact of solar waterheating systems on energy use andnew capacity demand. Field trials in60 homes are under way in NovaScotia, British Columbia and Ontarioin co-operation with ThermoDynamics Limited of Dartmouth, oneof Canada’s largest solar equipmentmanufacturers. Homeowners wereprovided with financial assistance topurchase and install solar systems.

Utility DSM programs play an importantrole in addressing greenhouse gas emis-sions associated with electricity produc-tion in Canada. Measures undertakenby governments and utility customers tomanage energy use often complementthese programs. However, there aremany important approaches beingimplemented on the supply side as well.District heating and co-generationexpand the range of possible supplyoptions, and they can lead to reducedgreenhouse gas emissions throughimproved efficiency and greater use ofalternative energy sources.

Residential and Commercial Sectors

The residential and commercial sectors(including public-sector institutions)account for approximately 15% of CO2

emissions in Canada. These emissionsresult almost exclusively from lightheating oil and natural gas consump-tion for building-space conditioning.Two thirds of the energy consumed inthe residential sector and over one halfof the energy used in the commercialsector go towards meeting space heat-ing requirements. This is not surprising,given Canada’s cold climate. Ventilationand space cooling accounts for an additional 15% to 20% of energy usedin the commercial sector. The remainingenergy goes towards lighting, and theuse of office equipment and householdappliances.

Improving energy efficiency in buildingscan achieve significant reductions ingreenhouse gas emissions. It can alsoease electricity demand requirements.Depending on the types of energy usedby local electrical utility companies, this can lead to additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and canreduce the need for additional generat-ing capacity. Determining the energymix that would have been used to gen-erate the energy being saved makes itdifficult to estimate emission reductionsresulting from building energy efficiencyimprovements.

Buildings and Lighting

Governments and utilities in Canadapromote improvements in buildingshells and architectural features toreduce space conditioning and toincrease the energy efficiency of HVACsystems. Lighting is not only integral tobuildings; it also plays an important rolein space conditioning and is, conse-quently, the subject of many energyefficiency initiatives.

A variety of information programs playan important role in promoting greaterpublic awareness of energy conservationpractices (e.g., lowering thermostat settings, turning off lights). Potentialhome buyers are also encouraged totake energy efficiency into accountwhen making purchase decisions.

The National Building Code of Canadasets out minimum safety provisions con-cerning public health, fire protection


and structural efficiency, as establishedby the National Research Council ofCanada. Provinces/territories and munic-ipalities are encouraged to adopt theCode. (Building regulations are theresponsibility of the provinces/territoriesand municipalities.) Because buildingcodes traditionally address safety andhealth concerns, they do not dealspecifically with energy efficiency.Instead, the federal Measures forEnergy Conservation in New Buildings,first produced in 1978 and updated in1983, serve as a model for energy-efficient design in new buildings.

• As part of the Efficiency andAlternative Energy Initiative,Natural Resources Canada, with support from utility members of the Canadian Electrical Association,provincial energy departments andthe National Research Council ofCanada, is developing a code forenergy efficiency in new buildings.It will be released in March 1994 forpublic discussion and comment. Theobjective is to develop a nationalenergy code specifying minimumacceptable levels of thermal perfor-mance that provinces/territories andmunicipalities can incorporate intotheir building codes.

One of the more widely known buildinginitiatives in Canada is the voluntaryR-2000 New Home Program, first intro-duced by the Government of Canada in1982. Certified R-2000 homes use farless energy than those built to conven-tional standards. These homes mustmeet minimum standards for windowsand doors, insulation, HVAC and lighting systems. The R-2000 Programincludes technical standards, a builder’straining and education package, andgeneral marketing and promotion pro-grams. However, due to the increasedcost of building to R-2000 standards,the penetration rate of these homesremains low —currently only about 1% to 2% of annual new single-familyhouse construction.

Nevertheless, the average new houseuses 30% to 40% less energy today thanit would if constructed in 1980, due

largely to code revisions in 1983 and, in part, to the influence of the R-2000Program.

• R-2000 regional programs nowoperate across Canada with morepartners —electrical and gas utilities,provincial housing and energy ministries, financial institutions andregional home builders’ associations— continuing to join and strengthenthe Program. Increased marketingand promotion of R-2000 benefitsare expected to result in increasedawareness and emphasis on R-2000 homes.

• Under the Advanced HouseProgram, sponsored by the CanadaCentre for Mineral and EnergyTechnology, 10 houses have beenconstructed at sites across Canada totest a range of new and emergingtechnologies that could increase theenergy efficiency of future housingand reduce its environmentalimpact. Each house had to meet anenergy budget of only one half ofan R-2000 house, in addition towater use, air quality and wastemanagement criteria. The involve-ment of builders, design profession-als, equipment suppliers and othersfrom energy utilities and local governments will help to transferinformation and know-how tofuture building efforts.

• The Canada Centre for Mineral and Energy Technology is alsodeveloping the new C-2000 Programto encourage the construction ofhigh-performance commercial build-ings to demonstrate new highlyenergy-efficient technologies andbuilding practices. Architects, engi-neers, contractors and developers,key industry groups and utilities areworking together to develop techni-cal criteria, technology assessmentsand preliminary projects to encour-age a high level of performanceover the life of commercial build-ings. If a building is to retain itsC-2000 status, it will be monitoredto ensure that C-2000 performancelevels are maintained.


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In Canada, measures to reduce energyuse in buildings generally focus on new,rather than existing, buildings, since it is more economic to incorporate energyefficiency improvements during designand construction and when HVAC systems are being installed. Buildingretrofits can, however, also result in significant energy savings, as can building audits.

• The Federal Buildings Initiative, currently being implemented andco-ordinated by Natural ResourcesCanada under the EnvironmentalStewardship Program, is designed to improve the energy efficiency of over 50 000 federal buildingsthroughout Canada. This programrelies on energy management andprograms, information and trainingservices, and a “savings-financing”mechanism that allows departmentsto use future energy savings tofinance current retrofits.

• One project undertaken as part ofthe Federal Buildings Initiative is the Greening of Parliament Hill, in which new, energy-efficient lighting will be installed in Canada’s Parliament Buildings.

Programs designed to improve informa-tion on opportunities for reducing energy use in existing buildings, usuallyin the commercial sector, are commonin Canada. These initiatives include seminars and workshops, operating andmaintenance training programs, andbuilding audits. They often supplementother direct incentive programs to assistbuilding owners in making efficiencyand conservation improvements.

• Natural Resources Canada initiatedthe Building Information TransferProgram to promote the adoptionof energy-efficient technology inbuildings by increasing awareness of existing energy efficiency opportunities.

• Prince Edward Island implemented a program to reduce lightingrequirements in commercial andinstitutional buildings by providingsoftware to government facilities

and selected utility customers toaudit lighting requirements andidentify potential energy savings.

• The City of Toronto, in co-operationwith Ontario Hydro, Toronto Hydroand Consumers’ Gas, implemented aphased, three-to-five year auditingand retrofit program for all 659 ofthe City’s buildings, as part of itsenergy efficiency and conservationprogram. The city requires energyefficiency and conservation plansfor all new residential, commercialand institutional buildings.

• Yukon’s Saving Energy Action LoanProgram (SEAL) provides energyaudits and low-interest loans tobuilding owners for cost-effectiveimprovements in energy efficiency.Residential audits are provided freeof charge, and commercial audits,for a nominal fee. Loans arerepayable over 60 months.

• The Northwest Territories provide“walk-through” and computer-assist-ed energy audits to small businesses.These audits give recommendationsand estimates for potential energysavings in commercial buildings.

Currently, alternative energy opportuni-ties for buildings are limited (e.g., activesolar applications for water heating), butseveral provinces have programs in placeto promote greater use of renewable(biomass) energy for space heating in theresidential sector. Some housing develop-ers and builders are also pursuing passivesolar heating as an important option forreducing energy use. For example,streets in some new housing subdivisionsare being oriented to enable houses totake full advantage of the sun’s energyfor heating during the winter.

• The Buildings Research andDevelopment and TechnologyTransfer Program, initiated byNatural Resources Canada under the Efficiency and AlternativeEnergy Initiative, promotes thedevelopment and commercializationof energy-efficient and passive solartechnologies in the residential andcommercial sectors.


A more detailed discussion and analysisof measures to reduce energy use associ-ated with buildings in the residential sec-tor is provided in the case study on spaceheating energy requirements in new sin-gle-family homes, described in Chapter 14.

Equipment, Machinery and Appliances

Major appliances, such as ovens, refrigerators, dishwashers and waterheaters, account for 31% of energy use in the residential sector; in the commercial sector, equipment andmachinery account for 8%.

Emissions associated with the use ofequipment, machinery and appliancesare normally attributed to electricpower plants and cannot be easily distinguished from emissions associatedwith other activities by other end users.Once again, it can be difficult to deter-mine the extent to which efficiency andconservation efforts lead to reducedemissions, since the mix of energy usedto produce the electricity consumed forequipment, machinery and appliancesis generally unknown, except on a localor regional basis.

Federal and provincial governments inCanada have standards and regulationsto ensure minimum efficiency levels inlighting, equipment and appliances.Utility DSM incentive and informationprograms also play an important role.

• Canada’s new Energy Efficiency Act,proclaimed in January 1993, pro-vides minimum energy efficiencystandards to phase out inefficientenergy-using equipment and house-hold appliances from the Canadianmarketplace, an enhancedEnerGuide labelling program to pro-vide consumers with better informa-tion about energy and cost savingsrelated to household appliances andother energy-using equipment, anda national data base on energy consumption and fuel use in Canada.Regulations to implement the Actare currently being developed.

Provinces and stakeholders are beingconsulted in the implementation of thenew federal Energy Efficiency Act.

Natural Resources Canada released twodiscussion papers on policy and programissues relating to energy efficiency standards and energy consumptionlabelling in the fall of 1992.

Ontario (1988), British Columbia (1990),Quebec (1991) and Nova Scotia (1991)have all implemented minimum energyefficiency standards for equipment soldor leased within their respective jurisdic-tions.

Measures implemented by governmentsand stakeholders in Canada to reducegreenhouse gas emissions in the residential and commercial sectors focuson energy use in buildings. Various government initiatives seek to removeenergy-inefficient equipment, machineryand products from the marketplace.

Resource and Manufacturing Industries

Fossil fuel use by resource and manufac-turing industries accounts for 16% oftotal CO2 emissions in Canada. Theseindustries are a major source of non-energy-related emissions of CO2 andgreenhouse gases such as CH4 and N2O.Measures that deal with resource activi-ties (i.e., coal mining and natural gasoperations) typically address fugitiveCH4 gases, which can be minimized orrecovered and used as an alternativesource of energy. The industrial sector isimplementing measures to reduce ener-gy costs and to minimize the environ-mental impact of production processesthat generate greenhouse gases andother pollutants that threaten local airquality. Industries are also exploringopportunities for reducing energy coststhrough energy efficiency. Changes inindustrial processes themselves can alsolead to significant energy savings.

Energy Use

Federal and provincial governments areworking with companies and industryassociations to co-ordinate efforts, andimprove information and technologytransfer. Greater energy efficiency notonly leads to reductions in greenhousegas emissions; it can also improve thecompetitiveness of Canadian industry


Chapter 5


and expand opportunities for firms spe-cializing in environmental technologies.

• The Canadian Industry Program for Energy Conservation (CIPEC) is a voluntary program to promote and monitor energy efficiency inCanadian mining and manufactur-ing sectors. Under the Program, voluntary energy efficiency targetsare set in each sector, annualprogress reports are prepared andpublished, awareness of sound energy management practices isincreased among Canadian indus-tries, and the exchange of non-proprietary energy and technologyinformation is arranged.

CIPEC encompasses 14 major industrial-sector task forces in Canada, represent-ing 40 trade associations and over 2500 individual firms. These task forces provide a sector-by-sector focus foraction. Their mission is to improve thecompetitive position of participatingcompanies through effective voluntaryaction, which will enhance industrialenergy efficiency and economic perfor-mance. The CIPEC Council, comprisingtask force chairs, will provide the focusfor discussing issues of common concernin relation to energy efficiency and climate change. It will contribute to thedevelopment of government policies onenergy efficiency and alternative energy,and help to identify the role of policy inaddressing energy-related environmentalproblems. It will also help stimulate theprivate sector to set and achieve newenergy efficiency targets.

• In Canada, electric motors accountfor 75% of electrical consumption in the industrial sector. Major electrical utilities have developedrequirements for high-efficiencymotors and instituted programs toencourage their use. Significantenergy savings are achieved bythese new efficient electric motors.

• Under the new Industrial TargetedResearch and DevelopmentProgram, the Canada Centre forMineral and Energy Technology isworking in partnership with industrystakeholders, utilities, research

institutes and private-sector organi-zations to identify key research anddevelopment priorities, and promote new technologies that will improve energy efficiency inindustry. An energy technologyassessment of the aluminum recy-cling industry has been completed,and studies of energy technologydevelopment needs of the pulp andpaper, cement and concrete, andferrous metals industries have alsobeen done. Several field trials andresearch projects are supportedunder the Program.

• The Government of Canada’s EnergyInnovators Ventures, a voluntaryprogram, encourages businesses,municipalities and institutions toexploit innovative efficiency andalternative energy opportunities to enhance competitiveness andreduce energy-related emissions ofgreenhouse gases and other pollu-tants in a cost-effective manner.

The Energy Innovator Office has beenestablished to evaluate end-use sectorsand activities, form energy innovatorteams, establish targets and actionplans, and register and publicizeachievements through annual reportsand media announcements. More than40 corporations with national opera-tions have joined Energy InnovatorsVentures since its inception.

• Jasper, Alberta, is Canada’s firstEnergy Innovators community.Alberta Power is working closelywith the community to meetJasper’s future electricity require-ments through DSM, rather thanthrough the development of addi-tional generating capacity. NaturalResources Canada, CanadianHeritage, the Province of Alberta,and residents and business people in Jasper are working together toreduce power consumption in public buildings by 20%.

• With assistance from Hydro-Québec,PPG Canada, a company that pro-duces glass, chemicals, coatings andfibreglass, switched to permionicmembrane-cell electrolysis tech-


nology in the production of chlorineand caustic soda at its plant inBeauharnois, Quebec. PPG improvedenergy efficiency by reducing totalprocess electrical requirements by onethird. Productivity increased by 75%.

• The Canada Centre for Mineral andEnergy Technology, the CanadianGas Association and DurhamCollege in Oshawa collaborated tosupport a comprehensive CanadianEnergy Management andEnvironmental Training Program.Specialized courses in energy effi-ciency and environmental aware-ness will be offered at communitycolleges and collèges d’enseigne-ment général et professionnel(cégeps) across the country.

• Ontario’s multi-year IndustrialEnergy Services Program providesadvice to industries on energy equipment and process improve-ments through the use of compre-hensive on-site energy audits andgrants for feasibility studies and pro-ject engineering design work. Thisprogram has been implemented inpartnership with engineering andtechnical consultants in the province.

Resource Activitiesand Industrial Processes

While resource activities and industrialprocesses account for only 6% of totalCO2 emissions in Canada (not includingfuel combustion, but including non-energy uses of petroleum products),they account for 34% of CH4 emissions(coal mining, and oil and natural gasoperations) and 34% of N2O emissions(chemical production). Animal wastes(manure) in the agricultural sectoraccount for 27% of total CH4 emissions.Nitrogen fertilizer is another importantsource of N2O. In both cases, N2O emis-sions are generated as a side reaction to the production process itself.

The forest products sector is a majorsource of industry CO2 emissions. Theseemissions are not from productionprocesses, but rather from using biomassby-products (spent pulping liquors

and wood residue) as an energy source.Biomass now meets one half of the pulpand paper industry’s energy needs. CO2emissions from wood biomass are notincluded in Canada’s greenhouse gasemissions inventory because wood biomass is a renewable energy source if forests are managed in a sustainablemanner. The decomposition of spentpulping liquors in sulphite mills alsorepresents a significant source of CH4emissions.

• Repap Enterprises is developing a new process (ALCELL) that usesethanol for pulping purposes. Thisprocess produces lignin in a pure,solid form that can be used in othermanufacturing processes. (Lignin isa complex polymer which wouldotherwise release carbon into theatmosphere.)

• The Canada Centre for Mineral andEnergy Technology, in associationwith the federal Department ofWestern Economic Diversification,the Canadian Electrical Association(CEA), BC Hydro and the Council ofForest Industries, has developed,and is demonstrating, an energy-efficient kiln for drying lumber. Ituses radio frequency energy, muchlike a microwave oven. The kiln,with a 20 000 board foot capacity,was recently installed at theCanadian Forest Products Eburnemill in Vancouver. Preliminary testsdemonstrated that lumber can bedried in one eighth the time ittakes for conventional, gas-firedkilns, resulting in significant energy savings.

Upstream oil and gas operationsaccount for almost one third of CH4 emissions in Canada. Natural gasproduction and processing account forone half of these emissions; oil produc-tion just over one third. CO2 emissions,which account for 2% of the Canadiantotal, are the result of sour gas strippingof hydrogen sulphide, CO2 and otherimpurities to produce natural gas.

Canadian companies have acted toreduce fugitive CH4 emissions from natural gas operations. Efforts include


Chapter 5


reduced venting and flaring of naturalgas, fugitive-emission control programs,replacement of gas-driven instrumentswith air or electric devices, andimprovements in overall operations and practices.

• Union Gas, an Ontario-based natural gas utility, instituted a program to recover vented CH4from compressor unit pipes beingserviced. This initiative, using whatis known as a “blowdown recoverysystem”, recovers more than 15 000cubic metres of CH4 a year at fivecompressor units in southernOntario. Union Gas also institutedCH4 leakage control practices,including reliance on outside consultants to perform regularinspection and audits of the compa-ny’s operations, and long-term monitoring of leakage trends.

Coal mining accounts for 4% of CH4emissions. One half of these emissionsare associated with underground minesin Nova Scotia; the remainder are emitted from large surface mines inSaskatchewan, Alberta and BritishColumbia. While recovered CH4 fromunderground coal deposits can be usedas an energy source, no such efforts arecurrently under way in Canada. TheLingan Mine in Nova Scotia, nearHalifax, was considered for a CH4recovery project to provide fuel tonearby power plants, but reduced activity at the mine has kept this initiative at the study stage.

Approximately 2% of CO2 emissions in Canada are associated with the production of cement and lime. SinceCO2 is a by-product of the cement-mak-ing process itself, technological optionsfor reducing these emissions areextremely limited. The cement industryin Canada is, however, pursuing innova-tive options to reduce fossil fuel use,including greater use of precalciner/pre-heater “dry” process kilns — almosttwice as energy efficient as the older“wet” process — and of supplementarycementing materials from waste products to reduce overall energyrequirements.

Primary metal industries also generateCO2 emissions as a direct by-product of the production of various metals,including iron, lead and copper. Theseproduction techniques, while highlycomplex, are well established andunlikely to change significantly. Onceagain, most emission reduction effortsemphasize energy efficiency improvements.

• The International Nickel Company(INCO), the world’s largest nickelproducer, instituted numerous energy conservation programs overthe years and is now the world’smost energy-efficient nickel producer.Energy efficiency programs areongoing, especially with the supportof electrical utilities: 50 programsare being carried out by INCO withsupport from Ontario Hydro. Oneprogram involves changing morethan 24 000 lighting fixtures in 1100locations to achieve electricity sav-ings of $1.6 million a year. INCO andOntario Hydro are investing severalmillion dollars in this joint venture.

Capital stock turnover influences theextent to which resource and manufac-turing industries will adopt technolo-gies and production processes thatresult in fewer greenhouse gas emis-sions. Few companies will replace existing equipment and machineryunless the cost of the capital stock hasbeen fully recovered, financial incen-tives from outside sources are availableor market demand changes.

While many opportunities for reducinggreenhouse gas emissions related tocoal mining, oil and natural gas produc-tion, and chemical production are beingexploited in Canada, they are severelylimited when the emissions are thedirect result of the production process.Energy efficiency is clearly the primaryarea where industries in Canada canachieve the greatest reductions ingreenhouse gas emissions. Action in thisarea has many economic and competi-tive benefits, and can help addressother environmental problems as well.Government measures to promote energy efficiency and reduce emissions


focus on voluntary action by individualcompanies through information andtechnology transfer initiatives.

Waste Management

Landfill sites generate CH4 as a result of anaerobic decomposition of organicsolid wastes. Approximately 38% ofCanada’s CH4 emissions come from over10 000 active and inactive municipalwaste landfills across the country.

Options for reducing CH4 emissionsinclude flaring at waste sites; reducingwastes through recycling, incinerationand composting; improving landfillmanagement practices to reduce anaerobic conditions; and recoveringCH4 directly for use as an energy source,which can displace more carbon-inten-sive fuels. Many municipalities employone or more of these approaches tocontrol CH4 emissions.

Most large cities in Canada have house-hold-waste management programs toencourage composting and recycling.“Blue box” recycling programs encour-age residents to divert plastic bottles,newsprint, glass bottles and metal cansto recycling facilities. These programs are common in Canada. Federal andprovincial/territorial governments haveset a voluntary target of reducing theamount of product packaging materialsent to landfills by 50% by the year 2000.

Besides saving landfill space, recyclingused materials also saves energy byreducing processing energy requirementsfor virgin material. For example, producing paper with recycled fibre uses33% less energy than is required to makevirgin paper. Recycling aluminum cansuses about 95% less energy. Organicmaterial separation and compostingreduces ongoing future methane gener-ation and release from the landfills. Insome cases, methane from existing landfills is captured and utilized.

• Environmental TechnologiesIncorporated installed and operatesa landfill gas utilization system inEdmonton, Alberta. It collects andcleans CH4 at a landfill site and usesit to supplement the natural gas

supply to Edmonton Power’s CloverBar electrical generating station.Ontario Hydro uses electricity generated by the Brock West landfill site in Pickering.

Enhancing Sinks and Reservoirs

The enhancement of sinks and reser-voirs for greenhouse gases — CO2 inparticular — is key to Canada’s climatechange response strategy. Increasingthe size of Canada’s natural carbonreservoir in the forestry and agriculturesectors offsets CO2 emissions elsewhere.The capture and utilization, or disposal,of CO2 can also offset emissions.

Forestry

Canada’s vast forests play an importantrole with respect to climate change.Forests and forest soils are an importantcarbon reservoir, and during growthphases, they contribute to the reductionof anthropogenic emissions through theaccumulation of carbon in standing biomass and soils. Forests can also con-tribute to anthropogenic emissions ofCO2 if, through land use changes, morecarbon is released into the atmospherethan is being stored. Examples of landuse activities associated with the netrelease of carbon to the atmosphereinclude the conversion of forested landsto other uses such as agriculture, andthe cutting of old-growth forests. Treeplanting initiatives play an importantlong-term role in efforts to enhance thecapacity of Canada’s forests tosequester carbon.

• The Tree Plan Canada Program,announced in the Green Plan andlaunched by Natural ResourcesCanada, is a six-year program to plant 325 million trees in urban and rural areas across Canada. Treeplanting projects were undertaken inall provinces and territories, involvingmany community and environmentalorganizations. Over 3.9 million treeseedlings were distributed for planting in the first year.


Chapter 5


• The Canadian Forestry Association(CFA) instituted a CorporatePartners Tree Planting Program. Inpartnership with non-forestry indus-tries, the CFA now plants between40 000 and 100 000 trees each yearin urban and rural areas to preventsoil erosion, maintain wildlife habi-tats and enhance Canada’s carbonsink capacity.

• As part of the Canada–ManitobaPartnership Agreement in Forestry,the Manitoba Agro-WoodlotProgram has been set up to enhanceexisting woodlots in southwesternManitoba and encourage the estab-lishment of new woodlots in theregion over a four-year period.

• A greenhouse built by SaskPower,the electrical utility forSaskatchewan, uses waste heat fromits Shand thermal generating stationto help produce two million treeseedlings that will be used to createnew wildlife habitats, reclaim minedareas and act as a carbon sink. Overthe long term, these trees couldsequester the equivalent of 3% ofthe station’s total CO2 emissions.

• Union Gas of Ontario is planting 30 000 trees on one of its compres-sor station properties.

Trees in urban settings sequester carbon and reduce building heatingand cooling requirements by providingshade during summer and acting aswindbreaks in winter.

Agriculture

Various agricultural practices contributeto greenhouse gas emissions: poor soilmanagement, ruminants contributingto CH4 emissions from enteric fermenta-tion, manure storage practices, the useof nitrogen-based fertilizers and pesti-cides, and the burning of fields to con-trol weeds and crop residues. Soils canalso be significant carbon sinks. Optionsfor increasing the capacity of agricul-ture sinks in Canada include:

• reducing summer fallow acreageand revegetating abandoned farmland to limit soil erosion;

• improving tillage practices to pre-serve and enhance soil organic matter;

• making greater use of crop residuesfor composting, animal feed andbedding;

• implementing improved drainagepractices to minimize anaerobic con-ditions; and

• introducing plant species withenhanced nitrogen-fixing capabili-ties and CO2 utilization.

Several Canadian initiatives encourage a reduction in cultivated summer fallowacreage. Research efforts are assessingnitrogen availability in soils and tailoring the rate, placement and timing of nitrogen fertilizer use.

• Agriculture Canada’s PermanentCover Program and similar provincialsoil conservation programs in westernCanada help sequester carbon byincreasing soil organic matter.

• A program by TransAlta Utilitiesmaximizes carbon sinks by selectingdeep-rooting grasses, legumes andannual crops, and minimizes soil carbon losses with crop manage-ment on 1000 hectares of reclaimedland at the company’s coal mines.

CO2 Sequestering

Oil and natural gas producers in west-ern Canada are examining capture andextraction technologies to produce CO2for use in enhanced oil recovery (EOR)projects. Other commercial and exportopportunities for captured CO2 arebeing explored, including forced photo-synthesis inCO2-rich atmospheres (i.e.,greenhouses), and the production ofcalcium carbonates and bicarbonates.

• The Alberta Government is support-ing research into the potential forCO2 reduction and utilization technologies. Working with theInternational Energy Agency (IEA),the Alberta Research Council, localconsultants and other stakeholders,the province is evaluating scenariosfor the capture, purification, trans-port and disposal of CO2


• The Alberta Oil Sands TechnologyResearch Authority, together with a20-member industry/governmentconsortium, has completed a majorstudy on the feasibility of extractingCO2 from existing sources, such aselectric power plants, and feeding itinto a common storage and pipelinenetwork for eventual commercialuse elsewhere.

Alberta, and several other Canadianprovinces/territories and stakeholdersare investigating the potential for per-manent disposal of CO2 in exhaustednatural gas wells, underground brines,aquifers and deep ocean sites.

Summary

The measures outlined in this chapterillustrate the wide range of activitiesunder way in Canada to limit net ener-gy-related and non-energy-relatedgreenhouse gas emissions. These mea-sures have been undertaken by govern-ments and stakeholders in all regions ofCanada and reflect Canada’s compre-hensive approach to addressing climatechange. Many of them not only makegood economic sense, but also addressimportant social, economic and environ-mental objectives.


Chapter 5


The Framework Convention on Climate Change requires countries toimplement policies and measures tolimit greenhouse gas emissions but recognizes the possibility that theseefforts may not be enough to completelymitigate climate change. As discussedin Chapter 2, the possible impact of climate change on Canada is a cause for serious concern.

The Convention calls on all parties to“formulate, implement, publish andregularly update national and, whereappropriate, regional programmes containing measures to . . . facilitate adequate adaptation to climatechange.” This chapter examines activities under way in Canada to meet this commitment.

The Importance of Adaptation to Climate Change

All human communities adapt to climate, whether they exist in the arctic tundra, the tropical rain forests,the continental hot deserts or the tem-perate latitudes. Throughout history,human activities, such as agriculture,forestry, transport, commerce, industry,insurance and finance, have all had totake climate into account.

This is also true of the physical infra-structures of a society. Hydro-electricdams, buildings, bridges, communicationtowers, transmission lines, pipelines andsewage facilities all must function in theprevailing climatic norms and the

expected range of variability, includingthe magnitude and frequency of themost extreme events.

Given the wide range of climaticregimes in Canada, climate plays animportant role in the activities, concernsand interactions that characterizeCanada’s social and economic structures.

The Nature of Adaptation

Adaptation measures vary according to the degree of intent with which they occur. While adaptation is often intentional, action taken for someother purpose can facilitate adaptationto climatic events. For example, discouraging the construction of housing close to shorelines for environmental reasons may also make that housing less vulnerable tochanges in water levels and to storms.

More often, adaptation is a deliberateattempt to respond to the present orfuture impact of climate. Purposefuladaptation implies an assessment of climatic conditions and a decision to act. Engineering design may be themost obvious example of purposefuladaptation.

Adaptation measures can also vary intheir timing. For instance, relief effortsrepresent a short-term measure to alleviate suffering before, during or after a weather event such as a hurricane. Designing buildings to withstand high winds is a long-termadaptive response to climate.

Adaptive measures are also influencedby the level of society involved, theextent of government participation,

Chapter 6


whether the measures buffer or changea system, and whether they are techno-logical or behavioural in nature.

The Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

Small losses from weather events are common in Canada. The fact thatlosses are not larger and only rarely catastrophic is due, in large part, to theprocess of adaptation. Canada’s climateadaptation efforts often go unnoticedbecause they have successfully limitedthe impact of climate.

Successful adaptation to climate provideseconomic benefits to all Canadians, but adaptation measures also carry an economic cost. For example, wintersnowstorms are a Canadian reality. Thedirect cost of disruptions associated withthese storms — people unable to reachwork or school, businesses closed orwithout customers, public events cancelled, accidents caused by poor road conditions — have been signifi-cantly reduced through adaptive actions.However, the costs associated with theseactions are high.

While Canadians benefit from adaptiveaction, it is not clear if these benefitsjustify the costs on an economic basis.The fact that it is no longer sufficientfor adaptive responses to be based onhistorical climatic data compounds thisuncertainty. Future climate must also be taken into consideration, and, asnoted earlier, there is significant uncertainty over what Canada’s futureclimate may be like, particularly at theregional and local levels.

In the face of this uncertainty, devisingan adequate adaptation strategy forCanada will be a challenging task. It should be clear, however, that the possible impact of climate change makesit worthwhile for Canadians to beginthinking about adaptation strategies.

Canada’s Response

Three kinds of knowledge are requiredif Canada is to adapt successfully to possible climate change: climate dataand analysis, an understanding of social

and economic activities affected by climate, and of the interaction between climate and society.

Government Research

The Climate Adaptation Branch of the Canadian Climate Centre ofEnvironment Canada conducts researchon, communicates about, and promotesawareness of, adaptation to climate, climate variability and climate change.In particular, the Branch works toimprove knowledge of the interactionbetween climate and society.

Studying the interaction between climate and society involves many hybridor interdisciplinary fields. Some are welldeveloped and others need to be creat-ed. For example, a great deal is knownabout climate and individual buildings,but little is known about climate and thedesign of whole cities. Similarly, while the interaction between manufacturingand climate is well documented, muchless is known about the links between climate and the service sector.

The Climate Adaptation Branch is developing a research program to provide Canadians with a better under-standing of the decisions they face withrespect to adaptation to climate change.This research will be conducted throughpartnerships between the ClimateAdaptation Branch and other federaldepartments, provincial/territorial agencies, municipal governments, environmental non-governmental organizations, universities, foundations,industry and public interest groups.

Two new research efforts are alreadyunder way (see Chapter 8), with the assistance of funding from the federal government’s Green Plan. The first effortfocuses on detecting climate change andanalyzing Canadian climate trends. Thesecond involves the design and executionof three regional studies (MackenzieBasin, Great Lakes–St. Lawrence, Prairies).These studies assess, in an integratedmanner, the likely impact of climatechange, possible adaptation strategiesand policy options.

The Climate Adaptation Branch has twoother initiatives, also supported through


Chapter 6


the Green Plan: an evaluation of what climate change will mean for major structures in Canada —those currentlyexisting and others yet to be built, and an assessment of the problems associated with a rise in sea level as a result of human-induced climatechange. Planning has begun on how best to deal with these efforts.

To develop some sense of priority for the various economic and societalconcerns arising from climate change, the Climate Adaptation Branch is commissioning several reports. One ofthese is a national reference documenton climate adaptation. This is being prepared by the Task Force on ClimateAdaptation (under the aegis of theCanadian Climate Program, whichincludes representatives from govern-ment, universities and the private sector).A first draft of this report is under review.

Sector-specific documents have also been completed and are having an impact. One of these studies,Adaptation to Permafrost in theCanadian North: Past and Future, hasresulted in an initiative to evaluate howthe National Building Code of Canadacan recognize possible climate changeby considering the possible effects in the design process for any constructionplanned in a permafrost area of thecountry. Other sector-specific documentsare being developed for the Arctic offshore, engineering design in Canadaand major water-diversion projects.

The Climate Adaptation Branch also recognizes the interest expressed bymany sectors of the Canadian economy,and many Canadians in general, in pro-viding their perspectives on, and obtain-ing a better understanding of, whatadapting to future climatic changemight entail. To meet this need, theClimate Adaptation Branch now pro-duces a regular newsletter entitledClimate Adaptation News. The first issuewas released in autumn 1992. In addition,the Branch sponsored An AdaptationWorkshop: Getting the Jump on Changein January 1993. It brought key stake-holders together in an informal settingto discuss how to promote adaptation

to a changing climate. A report on theworkshop’s results was made availablein spring 1993.

Other government organizations within the federal structure and at theprovincial/territorial level generally donot have dedicated components focusingon adaptation to climate change, butthe Climate Adaptation Branch is working with a number of partners in this area. The regional study of theMackenzie Basin is one example of suchco-operation. Within the federal publicsector, partners include EnvironmentCanada’s Canadian Wildlife Service,Natural Resources Canada, the Depart-ment of Fisheries and Oceans, Indianand Northern Affairs Canada, CanadianHeritage, Agriculture Canada andNational Defence. At the provinciallevel, BC Hydro, Alberta Environment,the Alberta Research Council and theSaskatchewan Research Council are participants. The governments of theNorthwest Territories and the Yukonare also active in the study.

There are several other examples of co-operation. The National BuildingCode of Canada and various committeesof the Canadian Standards Associationare closely allied with the work of theIndustrial and Energy Division of theClimate Adaptation Branch. Close tiesalso exist among the Water Resources,Marine and Data Integration divisionsof the Branch, and several provincialwater agencies and hydro concerns with regard to water levels and design issues resulting from various water-control structures.

Other Stakeholders

Within the framework of the CanadianGlobal Change Program, managed bythe Royal Society of Canada, there arediscussions on the creation of a researchpanel to focus specifically on adapta-tion. Several of the Program’s otherresearch panels are already addressingadaptation to global change, includingthose dealing with health, the Arctic,environment and security, and long-termecosystem research and monitoring.


In the past, Canadians appear to have adapted to varying water levels in the Great Lakes by modifying human activity as opposed to modifying thenatural environment. For example:

Transportation interests (shipping companies and port authorities) adaptto the vagaries of water levels bydesigning ships that can navigate themaintained channel and harbour depths,which are based on low watermarks.Moreover, ships increasingly have arange of carrying capacities to allow for tactical adaptations by adjustingloads. To increase this adaptability,some firms have begun to negotiatecontracts with variable rate structures.This means that the costs (and benefits)of adjustment are shared by the shipperand the customer.

Coastal Communitiesin Atlantic Canada

The 1 300 coastal communities inAtlantic Canada account for nearly one quarter of the region’s total population of just over two million.These communities are connected tothe marine economy through fisheries,marine transportation, energy development, coastal infrastructure and tourism and recreation.

Increased attention is now focusing on how these communities traditionallycoped with changing climatic conditions.For example, the Atlantic inshore fisheries traditionally accommodatedvariability in climate and the availabilityof fish through the timing of activities,the holding of multiple licences andgear to allow flexibility in species andlocations fished, the maintaining ofwork options in other economic sectorssuch as construction and tourism, risksharing through co-operatives or financial institutions and, informally, a collective sense of mutual support.

A better understanding of currentadaptive practices will aid in the development of strategies for adaptation of the Atlantic economy to future climate change.

In addition, the Canadian Global ChangeProgram supports workshops and otheractivities that touch on adaptation. For example, a workshop was held inSaskatoon in 1992 on wheat ecosystemsand global change, and a conference on sustainable mid-sized Canadian citiestook place in early summer 1993.

Examples of ClimateAdaptation in Canada

The national reference document on climate adaptation, being prepared bythe Task Force on Climate Adaptation,clearly indicates how Canadians haveadapted to climate and climate varia-tions. It provides useful lessons fromexamples of Canadian activities in which climate is an influential force and in which some kind of adaptationhas occurred or might occur.

Great Lakes Property,Power and Transportation

The Great Lakes, situated on theCanada–United States border, are the largest body of fresh water in theworld. Cumulative precipitation andevaporation in the Great Lakes Basinresults in water-level fluctuations in thelakes. Shorter-term climate events, suchas storms, also have a significant impacton water levels. Many human activities,such as shoreline construction, hydro-electric power and the shipping industry,must take into account, and adapt to,these varying water levels. Human-induced climate change may add further complications by alteringlong-term water levels and increasingthe frequency of extreme climatic events.

The 1989 report, Living with the Lakes:Challenges and Opportunities, suggested two fundamentally differentadaptive strategies. One option looks at major human involvement to controlthe environment by modifying waterlevels and flows. The other option advocates the modification of humanactivity to reduce vulnerability to, andthe prospects of, environmental andeconomic damage.


Chapter 6


Forestry

One of the most important sectors in theCanadian economy, forestry accountedfor C$22 billion in exports in 1990. Thereis ample evidence that past shifts in climate resulted in major changes in the location, extent and composition offorests. Consequently, forests are likelyto be very sensitive to future climaticchanges, and the forest industry will needto undertake long-term purposeful adap-tation. Annual allowable cuts need to bebased on accurate assessment of yieldsand expected growth rates. Adaptivestrategies suggested by the Task Force onClimate Adaptation for consideration bythe forest industry include:

• planting tree species that are moretolerant of a variable and changingclimate;

• pursuing short rotation options in areas currently being harvested and in areas previously harvested, to reduce risks during the life spanof forestry crops (These strategies,promoting earlier returns on investments, may be especiallyapplicable in southern regions of the boreal forest.);

• concentrating management effortson sites that are less vulnerable toclimate change (e.g., moist areas in the south that are less likely to be affected by drought); and

• assessing additional fibre sourcesand locations that will keep haulingdistances within profitable limitswhen planning processing facilities.

The Construction Industry

The construction industry is one ofCanada’s largest industries. Climate is akey factor in how the finished productperforms and in the constructionprocess itself. Most construction tasks —placement of concrete, steel erection,masonry, carpentry and foundationwork such as excavation and pile driving— are constrained by cold, rain, snowand wind. Snow loads, wind loads andlifetime temperature effects are alsoextremely important in engineering anddesigning a structure.

For example, combinations of extremeice, snow and wind loading dictate theeconomy and reliability of Canada’sexceptionally long electricity transmis-sion systems. Extreme flood levels andice jams influence bridge pier design and engineering. The frequency andmagnitude of the effects of ice floes and icebergs have an impact on off-shore structures. Permafrost dictates the design of towns, roads and pipelines inCanada’s north. Extreme heat, cold andwind influence the size of heating and air conditioning systems in buildings.

Engineers are accustomed to adapting toa variety of climates. This is usually donethrough code-writing bodies that pre-scribe design values based on studies ofhistorical climatic data. Human-inducedclimate change makes this task morechallenging because it can no longer beassumed that the climate of the futurewill be similar to the climate of the past.

Climatic change is expected to forcecode-writing bodies to modify construc-tion-design codes to adapt to new climatic factors, including:

• changes in the geographic distribu-tion, frequency and intensity ofsevere storms such as tornadoes,hurricanes and blizzards;

• seasonal-temperature changes thatwould influence power demand andconsumption for heating and airconditioning; and

• changes in precipitation and run-offthat would have an impact onmunicipal storm systems.

It may be easier to adapt to future climates in the construction sector than in other areas of the economy.After all, complete certainty aboutfuture climates is not required. In mostinstances, if trends can be forecastedand error bands estimated, risks associ-ated with climate change can be accom-modated in design values and codes.

Non-Renewable Energy in the Arctic

The non-renewable energy industry isvulnerable to changes in climate andhas some history of climate adaptation.


It is also likely to be affected by mea-sures to mitigate climate change. Forexample, the offshore oil and gas industry’s activities in the Arctic requirestrict attention to climatic factors.Indeed, different technologies havebeen developed to deal with varyingconditions of sea ice and water depth.

Climate change in the Arctic couldresult in rising temperatures, reducedsea ice and permafrost changes. Thiswould have a major impact on energyexploration and development in northernCanada. For example, a lengthenedopen-water season would increase thepotential for use of drill ships, althoughhigher waves and increased freezingspray would have to be considered. Any permafrost change would affect production facilities and pipeline construction and maintenance.

The non-renewable energy industry has demonstrated that technologies can be developed for varied climaticconditions, but doing so imposes significant added costs.

Winter Recreation

As a major component of winter recreation in Canada, skiing is highlydependent on climate, particularly temperature and the amount of snowcover. The skiing industry is well awareof this. Historically, it has adapted in avariety of ways, although not all ofthem are positive. Indeed, this industryprovides a good example of why itmakes sense to adapt before the needactually arises.

For example, the Ontario ski industryfaced unusually mild weather in the winter of 1979–80, with serious financialconsequences. As short-term adaptiveresponses, some retailers “wrote off winter” or entered receivership, appealed for financial assistance from the Ontariogovernment or the Ontario DevelopmentCorporation, and cancelled or postponedplanned improvements or expansions.

The vulnerability of ski resorts to climate change depends on whether or not they have taken any long-termadaptive measures. The major adapta-

tion is investment in artificial snow mak-ers. While this improves marginal condi-tions and extends the season, it alsorequires minimum temperature condi-tions. That is why some operators havechosen to diversify their recreationalfacilities and income sources to furtherminimize their vulnerability to changingclimates.

Agriculture

Agriculture is very sensitive to climate,with the production processes, particu-larly plant growth, directly dependenton climatic conditions. Yet there is littleagreement on the current and futureadaptability of agriculture to a variableand changing climate.

According to one view, agriculture isinherently adaptable because farmersoperate under conditions that vary from place to place and from year toyear. Proponents argue that farmers are already sensitized to the extreme variability of mid-continental, northernclimates and to constantly fluctuatingcommodity markets. As a result, farmersare ready to adopt any new crop or technology that will give them improvedreturns in the new conditions, whetherit’s a one-year drought, a wetter-than-normal decade or a long-term climaticchange.

These new technologies could facilitatethe introduction of new crops or allowold crops to grow under different climatic conditions. Existing insurance and income stabilization schemes would assist farmers through these periods of instability.

An opposing view holds that farmingpractices, especially in the Prairies and cen-tral Canada, have not adapted to climatevariations. As evidence, proponents pointto the devastating and surprisingly fre-quent losses associated with droughts andother deviations from long-term averageconditions. Direct production losses fromCanada’s 1988 drought are estimated atC$1.8 billion (1981 dollars).

It is impossible to determine which viewis correct without taking political andeconomic forces into account.


Chapter 6


Accordingly, future climate adaptationin agriculture will require more than ananalysis of crop breeding and decisionmaking by farmers. It will also requirean examination of how governmentprograms influence perceptions of riskfrom a variable and changing climate,and how they encourage or discourageadaptive decisions by farmers.

Cities

Climate influences the attractivenessand habitability of cities for individualsand for businesses. Moreover, theprospect of global climatic change andany associated rise in sea level has directimplications for parts of Vancouver andfor settlements along the St. Lawrenceand in Atlantic Canada, and indirectimplications for Canada resulting frompressures to accept “environmentalrefugees” displaced by climatic changesin other parts of the world.

Changes in urban structures that facili-tate adaptation to a changing climateoften reduce greenhouse gas emissionsas well. For example, urban designinvolving mixed uses, higher densitiesand efficient transportation to handlegreater flows of goods and peoplewithin and between cities limits green-house gas emissions and accommodatesincreased populations.

Cities, however, evolve very slowly.Thus, any significant adaptationrequires a long-term strategy. Planning,design and decision-making profession-als must truly believe in the benefits ofadaptive systems, and the public mustbe convinced of the problems and ofthe proposed response strategies before adaptation can begin.

An Integrated Approach

Canada’s efforts to adapt to futurehuman-induced climate change are justbeginning. Canadians have developedsignificant experience with variable climates, and this experience provides auseful base for future work in this area.

In Canada, much of the thinking andwork to date on an adaptive responseto climate variability and change hasfocused on single sectors. Since it is arelatively new field of research and theissues are complex, this focus has beenunavoidable. However, there is anincreasing realization that this sectoralapproach will be inadequate. After all,a positive impact of climate change inone sector may result in a negativeimpact in another sector. Accordingly,adaptive responses taken in isolationmay well be counter-productive.

As a result, Canadian researchers areshifting their emphasis to overall economic and societal effects and adaptive needs. These efforts areregional in scope and integrate all the competing effects on, and adaptiveneeds of, different sectors of the economy and different groups andinterests in that region.

Larger-scale integrated evaluations are being looked at internationally.These are either global or regionalmultinational efforts, such as a circumpolar study. The high priorityplaced on this work in Canada, and on Canada’s work within internationalfora such as the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change, ensures that Canada will continue to be at the forefront in carrying out adaptationresearch and promoting adaptationimplementation domestically andabroad.


The United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change recog-nizes the important role of education in the international response to globalwarming. People must become betterinformed if they are to support andcontribute to strategies responding to climate change. In a sense, theConvention itself is an educational toolbecause it directs signatories to shareinformation on the science of climatechange, and on the technologies andpolicies that will help countries miti-gate, or adapt to, a changing climate.

The Convention refers explicitly to education, training and public aware-ness. Article 4(1)(i) indicates that all parties should “promote and cooperatein education, training, and publicawareness related to climate changeand encourage the widest participationin this process, including that ofnon-governmental organizations…”

Article 6 of the Convention expands onarticle 4(1)(i), indicating that partiesmust promote:

• the development and implementa-tion of educational and publicawareness programs on climatechange and its effects;

• public access to information on climate change and its effects;

• public participation in addressingclimate change and its effects, andin developing adequate responses,discussed in Chapter 4; and

• the training of scientific, technicaland managerial personnel.

Environmental Citizenship: aFramework for PublicAwareness, Education and Training

Increasing public awareness of climatechange meets two important objectives.First, if people have a better under-standing of the science and economicsof climate change, they are more likelyto support policies that meet the chal-lenges and exploit the opportunitiespresented by it. Second, if peopleunderstand the contribution their individual efforts make to the climatechange problem, they are more likely to take action, both individually andcollectively, to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Meeting these two objectives is a chal-lenging task. Climate change is a complexscientific, socio-economic and politicalissue. While limited progress has beenmade in increasing public awareness ofthe potentially severe consequences of a changing atmosphere, the public haspaid less attention to the reasons forthese changes and to what individualscan do to protect the atmosphere.

As a result, many Canadians assume thatclimate change results from industrialpollution. They do not realize thatapproximately one quarter of Canada’sgreenhouse gas emissions originate fromindividual actions such as driving a car orheating a home.

Choices made by Canadians with respectto home heating, car purchase and use,and household appliances can make a


Chapter 7

Increasing Public Awarenessof Climate Change


discernible difference. For example, forevery 20 000 km driven, a car with a fueleconomy of 6 L/100 km will producefewer carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions(approximately 6 tonnes less) than a carwith a fuel economy of 12 L/100 km.

While both environmental regulationsand economic instruments are neededto address climate change, voluntaryactions must also play an important role.The concept of environmental citizen-ship provides an important foundationfor the development of strategies toencourage Canadians to take voluntaryaction.

Environmental citizenship involves avoluntary commitment to work towardsachieving a safe and healthy environ-ment and meeting the goal of sustain-able development. It recognizes thatindividuals, organizations and commu-nities can make a difference, and thatevery citizen can learn, in an objectiveand informed way, about the environ-ment and put that knowledge to workin responsible environmental action. Italso recognizes that self-regulation maybe better than government regulationand that sustained voluntary action canbe the most effective way to achievelasting results.

Environmental citizenship contributesto the achievement of environmentaland developmental goals in three ways.

• By encouraging learning and inde-pendent action, it helps preventproblems that would otherwiserequire difficult, costly solutions.

• By encouraging participation in thepublic debate on issues of environ-ment and development, it improvesthe quality of public policy.

• By encouraging the recognition of common goals and values, it promotes the development of constructive and workable solutionsamong all sectors of society.

Environment Canada’sEnvironmental CitizenshipLearning Program

In recognition of this growing need forenvironmental citizenship, EnvironmentCanada launched its EnvironmentalCitizenship Initiative in June 1992.

The Initiative challenges individuals,organizations and communities tochange their attitudes and values aboutthe environment and to change theirperception of the role they play asagents of change. It also challengesthem to act. An environmental citizenmust be well informed about the envi-ronment and environmental issues,skilled in developing environmentalaction strategies and dedicated toimplementing these strategies.

The Environmental Citizenship Initiativeencompasses many of the voluntaryaspects of programs across EnvironmentCanada, but the department also con-tributes to Canada’s commitment toeducation and public awareness throughthe Environmental Citizenship LearningProgram which:

• promotes environmental citizenshipby sensitizing people to environ-mental issues;

• promotes education programs thatare regionally and locally relevant;

• ensures that suppliers of educationstart from a base of ecological princi-ples and proceed to an in-depth treat-ment of environmental issues; and

• emphasizes the broad responsibilitiesof citizenship as well as the impor-tance of individual action.

Learning Resources

The Environmental Citizenship LearningProgram produces educational productsfor individual Canadians and for theorganizations and communities thatprovide environmental education.

After consultations with stakeholders,including the educational community,Environment Canada developed A


Matter of Degrees: A Primer on GlobalWarming. It serves as a benchmarkresource — state-of-the-art knowledge— that schools, communities, organiza-tions and individuals may use to devel-op products and programs designed forspecific audiences. The Primer outlinesthe basic knowledge, skills and valuesan environmental citizen needs in orderto understand climate change and totake responsible action with regard toit. It is a living document that will con-tinue to evolve over time. Commentsare encouraged.

Environment Canada is also preparingprimers on environmental citizenship,ozone depletion, spaces and species,and water and waste. Each publicationlooks at specific aspects of the climatechange issue.

As part of the Environmental CitizenshipLearning Program, Environment Canadaproduces fact sheets and “snapshots”that provide basic facts and suggestionsfor acting on climate change and atmos-pheric issues. These materials are aimedat decision makers, the media, schools,and business and community groups.Some of them, such as the Did YouKnow We Live in a Greenhouse? snap-shot, have been used internationally (see Figure 7.1).

Learning Partnerships

The task of environmental education is huge. Governments, acting alone, can-not possibly do all that needs to be doneto educate Canadians about climatechange issues. Environment Canada recognizes that it must also act as a catalyst for better and more widespreadenvironmental education. Consequently,in addition to its efforts in environmen-tal education, Environment Canada isestablishing partnerships with communi-ties, organizations and governments to work towards a shared objective ofan informed and environmentallyresponsible citizenry.

By seeking education partners,Environment Canada can:

• reach a greater audience withoutincurring huge cost;

• engage all segments of society,making the process more consensualand open; and

• promote the idea that groups insociety have a role and a responsi-bility for the environment, a spinoffof which would be an independentspirit of environmental citizenship.

Education partners can use the learningresources from Environment Canadadirectly, or they can tailor them to theirown particular programs and needs.

To mobilize education efforts around climate change issues, EnvironmentCanada has approached energy-sectorcorporations and associations, environ-mental non-governmental organizations,international agencies engaged in edu-cation and public awareness on climatechange issues, the education community,youth groups, the media, other levels ofgovernment and many others.

Environmental Citizenship Messages Program

Successful partnerships have been developed with national and localmedia through Environment Canada’snetwork of weather offices. In February1993, Environment Canada’s 60 weatheroffices and the Canadian MeteorologicalCentre began delivering a daily environ-mental-education message to the mediaand the public.

The messages convey environmentalinformation and encourage individualaction on issues including global warm-ing and energy efficiency. Strategic part-nerships with Canadian Press/BroadcastNews, the Weather Network, and hun-dreds of local newspapers, radio stationsand cable networks help bring thesemessages to Canadians on a daily basis.

In July 1992, the Friends of EnvironmentalEducation Society of Alberta (FEESA), acharitable group, organized a 12-dayatmospheric change education institute.Twenty-eight educators took part,addressing such concerns as climatechange and ozone depletion. In addi-tion to providing expert speakers on the science and policy issues of climate


Chapter 7


change, Environment Canada con-tributed financial support through itsEnvironmental Citizenship Initiative.

Other Environment Canada Climate ChangeEducation Activities

In 1986, Environment Canada publishedits first national State of the Environment(SOE) Report as part of the State of theEnvironment Reporting Program. It con-tributes significantly to Canada’scommitments to the Convention onClimate Change and illustrates the infor-mation gathering and presentation thatis critical if Canadians are to becomemore environmentally aware andresponsible. The government has along-term commitment to continuing its reporting activities. Several milestonereports have already been issued.

The Reporting Program providesCanadians with a snapshot of the healthof the natural surroundings in whichthey live and contributes to their under-standing of climate change.

• The State of Canada’s Environment:This document, published in 1991, is a reference guide to the currentstate of the Canadian biosphere. Itexplains the diversity of the environ-ment and the threats to its survival.It describes the atmosphere, itsworkings and its interaction withthe rest of the environment andlooks at changes it is undergoing asa result of human influence. There isa comprehensive chapter on climatechange.

• The State of Canada’s Climate:Temperature Change in Canada1895–1991: Released in 1992, thisreport shows that Canada haswarmed by 1.1˚C over the past cen-tury. While this warming is unques-tionably real and significant, thereport notes the difficulty in distin-guishing it from the general vari-ability of climatic patterns.

• A State of the Environment Report:Understanding Atmospheric

Change: Published in 1991, this document assesses the role of theEarth’s climate and how that climatehas behaved in the past. It examinesthe augmentation of greenhousegases since the beginning of theindustrial revolution and how thisincrease may lead to a rapid anddramatic change in global climate. It also examines the phenomenon of ozone depletion and its link toglobal warming.

• State of the Environment FactSheets: These information pam-phlets describe a specific atmospher-ic issue in an easily understood andaccurate manner. Fact sheets on cli-mate change give regional points ofview as well as an understanding ofthe scientific issues.

• Environmental Indicator Bulletins:With a focus on a specific environ-mental issue, these bulletins providedetailed scientific information inplain language, easily understoodby the lay person.


Figure 7.1

EnvironmentalCitizenship

Learning

Resources AtmosphericChange Education

Institute

At Environment Canada, the emphasis isnot only on informing the public aboutclimate change. With its long history ofwork in atmospheric science and policy,Environment Canada also seeks to facili-tate the exchange of climate changeinformation among experts in the field.A few examples are worth noting.

• CO2/Climate Report: This periodicnewsletter, issued by the CanadianClimate Centre, is devoted to currentevents in CO2 and climate research.Topics include temperature change,its link to the increase in greenhousegas emissions, and national andinternational analyses of the latestclimate change data. The newsletterlists upcoming conferences, meetingsand symposia on climate change.

• Climate Change Digest Series: Thisseries of papers, developed by theAtmospheric Environment Service,in conjunction with research facili-ties and universities, studies thesocio-economic impact of climatechange on different segments ofthe Canadian economy and society.

• Climate Adaptation News: This regu-lar newsletter provides informationon the most recent developments inwork to understand what adaptingto future climatic change in Canadamight entail.

The Atmospheric Environment Serviceof Environment Canada offers initialand advanced training for meteorolo-gists, meteorological technicians andpersonnel from Transport Canada andNational Defence. Courses and work-shops are delivered at training facilitiesin Toronto, Cornwall and Montreal, atregional weather centres and offices,and through distance-learning methods.

This traditional training is now being supplemented by efforts to provide public education services, and air qualityand climate services. For example, envi-ronmental issues are an increasing part of meteorological training programs inCanada.

Environment Canada also offers anIntroduction to the Atmosphere course.This is a formal program to give non-

specialists within the department anopportunity to learn about the science of the atmosphere. It includes an intro-duction to topics such as climate change.

Other StakeholdersWhile Environment Canada has madeenvironmental citizenship a cornerstoneof its operations, there are many otherstakeholders involved in educationalactivities to promote environmental citizenship and to assist Canada inmeeting its commitments under theFramework Convention on ClimateChange.

Federal Government Departments

Natural Resources Canada is an impor-tant contributor to the federal govern-ment’s efforts to increase public aware-ness of climate change. For instance, ithas been co-ordinating the productionof the Global Warming Report, a quar-terly newsletter on federal and provin-cial/territorial government activities inthe area of climate change.

Provincial/Territorial Governments

Many provincial and territorial govern-ments are working to increase publicawareness of climate change and to foster a sense of environmental citizen-ship. For example, some provinces havelaunched broad-based education pro-grams to increase their citizens’ under-standing of the environment and of sustainable development.

The Manitoba government works with the Manitoba Round Table onEnvironment and Economy to promote a sustainable-development educationstrategy in primary, secondary and post-secondary educational institutions. Otherprovinces, such as Prince Edward Island,focus only on the secondary level.

These programs all emphasize theimportance of incorporating climatechange education into curricula to helpdevelop a new generation of environ-mental citizens.

Other provinces and territories havemore specific educational programs.


Chapter 7


For example, Quebec’s energy efficiencystrategy has an important public-educa-tion component directed at secondaryand postsecondary educational institu-tions. One of its thrusts is an examina-tion of the links between the produc-tion and consumption of energy and climate change. Climate change is alsocovered in elementary, secondary andcollege curricula in the Yukon.

Non-Government Stakeholders

Non-governmental organizationsinvolved in efforts to increase publicawareness of climate change includeacademic institutions, educational asso-ciations, environmental groups andindustry. A few examples of their workare presented below.

Canadian Global Change Program

The Canadian Global Change Program(CGCP), an initiative of the Royal Societyof Canada, is the national focal point forglobal-change information, educationand research activity in Canada. Corefunding comes from the federal govern-ment’s Green Plan, the Natural Sciencesand Engineering Research Council(NSERC) and the Social Sciences andHumanities Research Council (SSHRC).

The educational program of the CGCPprovides a detailed look at the causes,consequences and effects of climatechange and global warming, as well as the responses to it. For example, a report entitled Global Change andCanadians answers basic questions onglobal-change issues.

Canadian Labour Congress

The Canadian Labour Congress addressesclimate change issues through its unionenvironmental education program. It sponsors conferences and participatesin networks to bring information to awider audience.

Conservation Council of New Brunswick

Appointed to the UN Global 500 Roll of Honour in 1991, this environmentalgroup has a strong interest in the climate

change issue. In 1992, the Council pro-duced two publications to build publicsupport for action to reduce greenhousegas emissions.

• The Global Warming Primer providesan overview of the causes and possi-ble consequences of climate changefor Canada’s Maritime provinces andmakes suggestions for personal andpolitical action. This booklet hasbeen widely used throughout theNew Brunswick school system.

• Mild Isn’t It? Straight Talk on GlobalWarming is a condensed version of the primer. It was published as a humorously illustrated tabloidand inserted in daily newspapersthroughout New Brunswick.

World Congress for Education and Communication on Environment and Development

In response to the Earth Summit’sAgenda 21, a broad spectrum of envi-ronmental education organizations, UNbodies and public, private and govern-mental organizations came together atthe World Congress for Education andCommunication on Environment andDevelopment (ECO-ED), held in Torontofrom October 16 to 21, 1992. ECO-EDfocused on issues of environmental pub-lic awareness, education and training.The Congress was officially sponsoredby UNESCO and the InternationalChamber of Commerce, in co-operationwith the United Nations EnvironmentProgram (UNEP) and with financial support from Environment Canada.

Improved public understanding of theclimate change issue will make it easierto design and implement measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Educational efforts are also likely toincrease the number of Canadians willing to take action themselves.

For these reasons, Canada was a strongproponent of commitments to increasepublic awareness in the Convention on Climate Change. Stakeholders fromall sectors of Canadian society are tak-ing action to help Canada meet thesecommitments.


Much is already known about the global climate system and the threatposed by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.Indeed, the current scientific consensuswas enough to bring governmentstogether to negotiate the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change.

Even so, there are still many areas of uncertainty with respect to climatechange. The atmosphere is extremelycomplex, and links between the atmosphere and other elements of the climate system are not completelyunderstood. Scientists still have littleability to predict regional implicationsof increased concentrations of green-house gases, and there continues to be little consensus on the economicimpact of action to limit greenhousegas emissions.

It is for these reasons that theFramework Convention commits all parties to:

Promote and co-operate in scientific,technological, technical, socio-economicand other research, systematic observation and development of data archives related to the climate system and intended to further the understanding and to reduce or eliminate the remaining uncertaintiesregarding the causes, effects, magnitudeand timing of climate change and theeconomic and social consequences ofvarious response strategies.

This chapter of Canada’s national reportexamines what Canada is doing to meetthis commitment.

Scientific Research andMonitoring Activities

The Canadian Climate Program

Created in 1979, the Canadian ClimateProgram (CCP) helps to develop a betterunderstanding of climate, particularlywith respect to Canada and its adjacentoceans. It represents all climate-relatedresearch activities in Canada. Federal,provincial and local governments,research councils, universities, corporations and consultants are all important partners.

Under the CCP, there is a commitment to using knowledge to assist individualCanadians, corporations and govern-ments in coping with the effects of climate. The CCP has four major components: data, applications,research and socio-economic impact.Each component addresses specific concerns from a Canadian perspectiveand contributes to international effortsthrough the World Climate Program.

Environment Canada’s AtmosphericEnvironment Service (AES) is the leadagency for the CCP. It provides most of the administrative resources. It shouldbe clear, however, that the CCP is runinformally through arrangements thatare flexible, consultative and effective.

The Climate Program Board (CPB) facilitates co-ordination, liaison and the setting of program priorities for the CCP. The Board consists of some 35 members drawn from senior levels of federal and provincial governmentagencies, nongovernmental organiza-


Chapter 8

UnderstandingClimate Change


tions, universities and the private sector.The CPB provides advice to its parentbodies and government ministers, as wellas to all other participants. It also reportsperiodically to the Canadian Council ofMinisters of the Environment (CCME).

Regional climate advisory committees(CACs), which report to the ClimateProgram Board through the NationalClimate Advisory Committee, have been established in each of Canada’sten provinces and two territories. These committees encourage and promote interagency co-operation,increase public awareness of climateissues and review documentation related to the CCP.

Generally, component agencies of the CCP manage their own programsand resources. Since 1991, however, substantial funding from the federalgovernment’s Green Plan has flowedinto many parts of the Program.Through the Green Plan, Canada has increased the share of universityfunding devoted to climate researchand has committed significant newfunding over a six-year period.

Federal government agencies such as the Natural Sciences and EngineeringResearch Council (NSERC) and the SocialSciences and Humanities ResearchCouncil (SSHRC) also provide substantialfunding for CCP activities. These fundssupport individual scientists studying climate or its impact, as well as relevantstrategic grants and industrial profes-sorships or chairs in universities. Finally,the National Research Council (NRC) contributes significantly through itsrelated research programs.

The Canadian Climate Program Boardrecently identified five main areaswhere work is needed to improve the scientific understanding of climate in Canada. These areas are:

• basic collection, archiving and analysis of data;

• significant participation in globalresearch efforts to understand andto quantify the processes influenc-ing the climate system, particularlyas they affect Canada;

• climate system modelling efforts;

• integrated regional studies of theimpact of climate change; and

• policy research on greenhouse gaslimitation strategies and on adapta-tion or responses to climate change.

Data Collection/Monitoring

Scientific research related to climatechange must be based on solid information. Better climatological dataenable climate modellers to make betterprojections of future climates and toplan measures to facilitate adaptationto the effects of climate change.

Through the Canadian ClimateProgram, substantial efforts are being made to improve the quality,homogeneity and assimilation ofdiverse data relating to atmosphericgreenhouse gas concentrations andCanada’s climate. One of the objectivesis to make these data more accessible to researchers around the country.

• Annual reports on the state of Canada’s climate are being produced. The 1992 report examined temperature trends in Canada, and the 1993 report will examine precipitation trends.

• A comprehensive climate-data management system to improve thequality, timeliness and accessibilityof climate data came into existenceearly in 1992 at Canada’s NationalClimatological Archive.

• Canada’s efforts to monitor greenhouse gas concentrations andair chemistry are being enhancedthrough the addition of a continentalinterior station to the three existingcoastal stations. Equipment is beingupgraded for continuous monitoringof carbon dioxide (CO2), methane(CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) concentrations at all stations.

• Agriculture Canada provides fund-ing to universities for the study ofthe contribution of agriculture toclimate change through emissionsof nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile


organic compounds (VOCs) and CO2.It is also developing and usingground-based and airborne systemsthat monitor CO2 and water vapourexchange over crops to help assesscrop growth and production underdifferent climatic regimes.

• Canada is increasing its emphasis on developing remote sensing andautomated methods of monitoringclimate parameters, particularlythose of cloud and precipitation, andgenerally expanding its capacity toobserve the atmosphere and oceans.

• Canada’s Climate Change DetectionProject promotes a better under-standing of climate and its spatialand temporal variability. A regularseries of reports on Canadian climateand progress towards detectingchanges will be released as part of this project.

• The Geological Survey of Canada(GSC) is conducting proxy data studies and monitoring change in the terrain characteristics of three sensitive landscape areas —the High Arctic, the dry Prairies and the Mackenzie River Valley.

• The GSC is analyzing past climaticevents from sediment records andpreparing estimates of CH4 releasesfrom marine sediments.

• The Ontario government is sponsor-ing a study to use the rings of cedartrees in the Niagara Escarpment toprovide proxy data on Ontario’s climate over the past 2 000 years.

Climate Process Studies

The Earth’s climate system comprises fivecomponents: atmosphere, oceans, cryos-phere (snow and ice cover), biosphereand geosphere. Heating by incomingshort-wave solar radiation and cooling by long-wave infrared radiation intospace drive the global climate system.Heating varies by latitude, and the dif-ferentials cause the atmosphere andoceans to circulate around the planet.Numerous complex and poorly under-stood interactions or feedbacks amongthe components of the global climate

system are responsible for significantvariability in global climate over timescales ranging from several years to several centuries. Predicting changes in the climate system requires a greaterunderstanding of climate processes and the interactive climate feedbackmechanisms that can either amplify or reduce the climate response resultingfrom a given change in the climate system. The Canadian Climate Programis involved in several major internationalstudies to improve understanding of the processes through which elementsof the climate system interact.

Boreal Ecosystem Atmosphere Study(BOREAS)

As the base for major industries involvingpulp and paper, lumber, wildlife andrecreation, the boreal forest is veryimportant to several northern countries,including Canada. However, because ofits location, size and ecology, the borealforest is a high-risk area for potentialeffects of global environmental changes.

The boreal forest is also a major storehouse of organic carbon and couldinfluence atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The aim of BOREAS is to focuson the interaction between the borealforest and the atmosphere and to clarifytheir roles in global climate change.

BOREAS is a five-year, C$40 millionco-operative project between Canadaand the United States. Canadian project members include the federaldepartments of Agriculture, NaturalResources and Environment, two researchcouncils and 35 university researchers.The National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration (NASA), the NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration,the Environmental Protection Agencyand the National Science Foundation arethe major US sponsoring organizations.

The project involves surface, airborneand satellite-based observations that aim to develop an improved understanding of:

• the interaction of the terrestrialecosystem and the atmosphere inthe region, specifically exchanges


Chapter 8


of radiation, sensible and latentheat, and trace gases;

• the carbon and CH4 balances of the boreal forest biome; and

• the role the current climate systemplays in regulating the boreal forestbiome, and the role of the biome in regulating the climate system.

BOREAS is more than a field measure-ment program: significant model development and validation will beundertaken in such areas as land surfaceprocesses, tropospheric chemistry and terrestrial ecology. Major field activitieswill be carried out in Manitoba andSaskatchewan in 1993 and 1994.

Canadian Northern Wetlands Study(NOWES)

NOWES was conducted from 1989 to 1992 to assess the importance of northern wetlands as sources of biogenic gases (especially CH4) under current and future climate scenarios. The study was a componentof the International Global AtmosphericChemistry Program of the InternationalGeosphere-Biosphere Program.

This research project observed emissions of biogenic gases from bothgroundbased and airborne sites. Whilethe study concluded that the amount of CH4 emitted from wetlands variesdepending on temperature and wetnessconditions, it did show that actual CH4emissions from the Hudson Bay Lowlandwere approximately 20 times less than earlier estimates indicated.

NOWES was co-ordinated by theCanadian Institute for Research in Atmospheric Chemistry (CIRAC) in partnership with Canadian andAmerican government agencies anduniversities. The work was supported by a C$1 million collaborative researchgrant from Canada’s Natural Scienceand Engineering Research Council.

Global Energy and Water CycleExperiment (GEWEX)

GEWEX is one of the major activities of the World Climate Research Program

(WCRP). The GEWEX initiative waslaunched to study, on a global scale, the “fast” climate system mechanismscontrolling radiation, clouds and rain,evaporation and freshwater storage. A central goal of GEWEX is to improvethe ability to model global precipitationand evaporation and to assess the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle and water resources to climate change.

The Canadian GEWEX program will develop models to improve understand-ing of the freshwater flows from theMackenzie River into the Arctic Ocean.This knowledge can then be transferredto large rivers in Siberia where it can beused to develop a better understandingof the arctic climate system.

To date, C$3.5 million have been made available for the first phase of this experiment (1992–97). The project is being co-ordinated by EnvironmentCanada through a GEWEX secretariatlocated in Saskatoon. There is significant university participation.

Global Ocean Observation System(GOOS)

The Department of Fisheries and Oceansis developing plans for participation inthe development and implementation of the Global Ocean Observation System.The program, arising out of the UnitedNations Environment Program (UNEP)and led by the IntergovernmentalOceanographic Commission, will providetimely ocean information relevant toboth climate change and coastal-zonemanagement.

Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS)

The oceans are a major element in the climate system. They help to determine the level of CO2 in theatmosphere and, like the forests, are an important storehouse of carbon.

JGOFS is a project of the InternationalGeosphere-Biosphere Program organizedby the Scientific Committee for OceanicResearch (SCOR) under the auspices ofthe International Council of ScientificUnions (ICSU). It is a decade-longresearch program to provide greater


understanding of the role of the oceansin the global carbon cycle by examiningthe processes controlling the time-varying fluxes of carbon and associatedbiogenic elements in the oceans, andevaluating the related exchanges with the atmosphere, sea floor and continental boundaries.

Nearly 60 Canadian researchers are working with researchers from over 20 countries on 25 projects organizedaround three themes: gas exchange at the sea surface, transformations andtransport of carbon in the oceans and theburial of carbon in the oceans. Canadianscientists have undertaken co-operativeresearch with scientists from Germany,Italy, Russia, the United States and Spain.

A scientific advisory committee and asteering committee, with representativesfrom both university and governmentscientific communities, and a secretariat,located at Dalhousie University, havebeen established.

The Canadian program is co-ordinatedby the Canadian National Committeefor JGOFS. The Department of Fisheriesand Oceans is the lead governmentagency and contributes significantresources (researchers, instruments,facilities and ship time) to JGOFS. It provides the international chair andexecutive scientist for JGOFS. Canada’sNatural Science and EngineeringResearch Council (NSERC) also supportsJGOFS. In total, Canada provides C$2.7 million for this program each year.

Northern Biosphere Observation andModelling Experiment (NBIOME)

NBIOME is currently in the developmental stage. It is shaping up to be a 10-year collaborative researchprogram involving Agriculture Canada,Natural Resources Canada, EnvironmentCanada and 16 universities. The projectaddresses key issues and uncertainties in the relationship between climaticconditions and the state of forests, agriculture, wetlands and tundra overthe northern Canadian land mass.

NBIOME’s objectives are to assess the likely direct and indirect effects of global environmental change on threeaspects of Canada’s terrestrial ecosystems:disturbance regimes, vegetation changeand the net flux of the important greenhouse gases between the terrestrialecosystems and the atmosphere.

Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP)

The PMIP is part of the Past GlobalChanges (PAGES) Program. As part ofthe International Geosphere-BiosphereProgram of the International Council of Scientific Unions, PAGES promotesgreater understanding of past globalchanges in order to help deal withfuture global change.

The purpose of PMIP is to usepaleo-reconstructions of past climatesto evaluate the performance of generalcirculation models (GCMs). If GCMs canaccurately predict past climates, it givesgreater confidence in simulations offuture climates.

An initial focus for the PMIP is 6 000years ago, when the global climate waswarmer and the solar radiation inputwas different from today. A workshopon this period was held in Ottawa fromNovember 20 to 23, 1992. The workshopbrought scientists from a broad range of disciplines in the geological and biological sciences together with climate modellers to discuss currentunderstanding of the climate 6 000 yearsago. Participants were principally fromCanada, with representation from theUnited States, Sweden and France.

Within Canada, the main project lead in PMIP and PAGES is the GeologicalSurvey of Canada. Both programsinvolve extensive collaboration with scientists from other federal agenciesand from universities.

World Ocean Circulation Experiment(WOCE)

A major component of the WorldClimate Research Program (WCRP),WOCE aims to describe oceanic circulation at all depths and on a


Chapter 8


global domain during a five-year period(1990–95). It also aims to develop anunderstanding of how oceans influenceclimate, particularly through the interaction of wind and currents, and to determine how best to measure ocean parameters to improve future climate forecasts. Data collection hasbeen ongoing, and analysis and archivingof the data are now in progress.

The federal Department of Fisheries andOceans provides the WOCE chief scientist,the co-chair of the Scientific SteeringGroup and various members of panelsand working groups. The experiment also involves the use of Canadian researchvessels, extensive satellite monitoring andthe resources of several laboratories ofthe Department of Fisheries and Oceans.

Canada has conducted joint investiga-tions with both the United States andRussia, and regularly exchanges datawith the nearly 40 countries participatingin WOCE. Canada’s Natural Science and Engineering Research Council also supports WOCE. In total, Canadacontributes approximately C$4 million a year to this project.

National-Level Studies

Several independent Canadian researchinitiatives aim to provide a betterunderstanding of climate processes. For example, the Ontario governmentprovides approximately C$150,000 to two research projects that are examining the circulation of carbonamong atmosphere, soil, water and biomass in wetlands and forested areas of the province. Both studies will improve the understanding ofwhether these ecosystems are netsources or sinks of greenhouse gases.

Canada’s General Circulation Model

Data on Canada’s current and past climates, and an understanding of climate processes, allow scientists toconstruct computer-based, mathematicalmodels of the climate system that canbe used to simulate the consequencesof changing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Canada recently developed a second-generation atmospheric general-circulation model (GCM) for climateresearch. This model is recognized asone of the most advanced equilibriumGCMs within the international researchcommunity. It was one of the threehigh-resolution models used in the 1990assessment by the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change.

The model does, however, require significant improvement if it is to providerealistic simulations of future climates for policy and decision making. This is a major undertaking that requires themobilization of climate research expertiseacross Canada. This process is being carried out with the support of theGlobal Warming Science Program of the federal government’s Green Plan.

• Canada has established a NationalClimate Research Network to fostercollaboration between universities,government agencies and the private sector on climate modelling.Participants will have access to computer resources and will be connected through a high-speedelectronic data network.

• The Atmospheric EnvironmentService is relocating its climate modelling group to the Universityof Victoria and establishing anocean circulation modelling groupto work with the local concentrationof oceanographic modelling expertise.

• The climate modelling group of the Atmospheric EnvironmentService will work to combine anocean general-circulation modelwith the Canadian GCM in order to determine the rate and magnitude of climate change.

• A climate integration and predictioncentre is being established inVictoria, British Columbia, to manage the Climate ResearchNetwork, and to act as a nationalclearing house for information onclimate change. The centre will be a non-profit, non-governmentalorganization built on a partnership


between the federal and provincial/territorial governments, and the private sector.

• Several federal government departments, including NaturalResources Canada and EnvironmentCanada, are participating in a collaborative research agreementthat has been established with theUniversité du Québec à Montréal to undertake research on regionalclimate models for increasing the resolution of GCM output.

• Work is being done on mid-atmosphere modelling with YorkUniversity, McGill University, theUniversité du Québec à Montréal and the University of Toronto. Thisresearch allows scientists to incorpo-rate the impact of changes in thestratosphere (e.g., ozone depletion)into their future climate projections.

• Planning is under way to carry out a simulation of the climate of 6 000years ago with the Canadian GCM.

• The Atmospheric EnvironmentService has expanded its sciencegrants program to provide additionalsupport to university research intoclimate change.

Other climate-modelling work currently under way in Canada:

• Natural Resources Canada is developing models to predict theimpact of climate change on forestecosystem components, ecosystemdisturbance regimes and successionalpatterns, forest productivity, treedecline, insect infestations andother disturbance phenomena.

• Natural Resources Canada is developing a model of the carboncycle of the Canadian forest sector to provide information on the sector’scontribution to the global carbonbalance. The three-phased studyinvolves determining the current carbon inventory of the forest sector,evaluating the implications of forestmanagement practices and strategieson the carbon cycle of northern

forests, detecting and monitoringglobal changes on the boreal forestand investigating the implications of potential climate change on the carbon cycle.

• The Geological Survey of Canada ismodelling the interaction betweenpermafrost and climate change.

Impact Studies

Models such as Canada’s general-circulation model provide the vision of future climates that researchers use to assess the possible ecosystem and socio-economic effects of climatechange on Canada.

Under the Canadian Climate Program, a series of reports was produced thatexamine the potential impact of climate change on individual economicsectors, geographical areas and publicpolicy. Approximately 25 studies werecompleted under contract to universi-ties and private sector firms (see Table8.1). Chapter 2 refers to the results of this research.

Similar studies are continuing. For example, Agriculture Canada has carriedout a wide range of climate changeimpact studies to examine shifts in biomass production and crop potentialunder different climatic regimes.

Canada is now changing the focus of its impact research to concentrate on large integrated regional studiesthat also look at adaptation to climatechange and variability. This integratedapproach provides new methodologiesfor understanding the complex interre-lationships of climate, ecosystems andsociety. The results of these regionalstudies will be valuable in developinginternational methods of impact analysis and in assessing the consequences of climate change.

Canada’s integrated research effort on impact is currently focused on three key regions of the country: the Mackenzie River Basin, the Great Lakes region and the Prairies.

The Mackenzie River, located inCanada’s northwest, is Canada’s largest


Chapter 8



Table 8.1

Some CanadianStudies on the

Possible Impact ofClimate Change


(Climate ChangeDigest Series)

CCD 88-01 The Implications of Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Provinces

CCD 88-02 Preliminary Study of the Possible Impacts of a One Metre Rise in Sea Level at Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island

CCD 88-03 Implications of Climate Change for Downhill Skiing in Quebec

CCD 88-04 Economic Perspectives on the Impact of Climate Variability and Change: A Summary Report

CCD 88-05 Implications of Climatic Change for Tourism and Recreation in Ontario

CCD 88-06 Estimating Effects of Climatic Change on Agriculture in Saskatchewan, Canada

CCD 88-07 Socio-Economic Assessment of the Physical and Ecological Impacts of Climate Change on the Marine Environment of the Atlantic Region of Canada — Phase I

CCD 88-08 The Implications of Climate Change for Natural Resources in Quebec

CCD 88-09 CO2 Induced Climate Change in Ontario: Interdependencies and Resources Strategies

CCD 89-01 Climate Warming and Canada’s Comparative Position inAgriculture

CCD 89-02 Exploring the Implications of Climatic Change for the Boreal Forest and Forestry Economics of Western Canada

CCD 89-03 Implications of Climatic Change for Prince Albert NationalPark, Saskatchewan

CCD 89-04 Implications of Climatic Change on Municipal Water Use and the Golfing Industry in Quebec

CCD 89-05 The Effects of Climate and Climate Change on the Economy of Alberta

CCD 90-01 Implications of Climate Change for Small CoastalCommunities in Atlantic Canada

CCD 90-02 The Implications of Long-Term Climatic Changes onTransportation in Canada

CCD 91-01 Climate Change and Canadian Impacts: The ScientificPerspective

river, and its basin is home to manyCanadian indigenous peoples. Thisregional study, now in its second year, is investigating the sensitivity to climatechange of water management, sustain-ability of ecosystems and Native lifestyles,opportunities for economic development,buildings and infrastructure, limitationstrategies and other considerations. It emphasizes the complex nature of a regional climate system and its relationship to economic, ecosystem and social processes.

The Mackenzie Basin Impact Study comprises 18 research projects involvingfederal government departments, universities, the private sector andNative organizations. The first interim report on the study’s overallprogress was released in 1993.

The studies on the Great Lakes andPrairies are still in their early stages, but they will build on a considerablebody of existing information and expertise. A summary of the knowneffects of climate change on the Prairies was released in March 1993.

The Great Lakes study is currently aimedat assessing the usefulness of an input-output model of the Ontario economyin determining the economic impact ofclimate change in Ontario. Preliminarywork indicates that existing climateimpact studies pay more attention tothe impact of climate change on thesupply of goods and services than to the demand for those goods and services.

Canada is also working with other countries to determine the possibleimpact of climate change on different ecosystems.

• Canada and the United States held a series of bilateral symposia on the implications of climate changeon the Great Lakes and St. LawrenceBasin, the Prairies/High Plains, theforests of the Pacific Northwest, the Arctic and eastern Canada, and the US New England states.

• An international workshop on the Effects of Global Change on the Wheat Ecosystem was held at the University of Saskatchewan

from July 22 to 24, 1992. This meetingbrought together 60 researchersfrom 15 countries to discuss the likely impact of global change on wheat ecosystems and comparevarious models of these ecosystems.A steering committee has been estab-lished to oversee further activities,such as the exchange of experimentaldata and more rigorous comparisonof various models.

Finally, provincial governments are sponsoring impact research. For example, a program of the Ministère des forêts in Quebec is studying the impact of environmental stresses on forest ecosystems. A monitoring network of 26 stations has been established to keep track of changes in forest variables and in climate.

Socio-Economic Analyses

Most of the research effort outlinedabove is ultimately intended to shedsome light on what will happen to climate if nothing is done to limitgreenhouse gas emissions. Canadians,however, are also concerned about the costs and benefits associated withtaking action to limit those emissions.

A report prepared for EnvironmentCanada’s Conservation and ProtectionService, International and NationalPerspectives on Greenhouse GasEmission Reduction Strategies, catalogues and summarizes severalCanadian and international studies thatinclude assessments of the environmentaland economic impact of measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

The report indicates that such studieshave been conducted in Canada by alllevels of government, the private sector,consultants and environmental groups.

• Study on the Reduction of Energy-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions(The DPA Group), March 1989.

• Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions(Federal-Provincial/Territorial TaskForce on Energy and theEnvironment), August 1989.


Chapter 8


• Assessment of Policy Options for the Reduction of Greenhouse GasEmissions in Saskatchewan (SampsonResearch Associates for SaskatchewanEnergy and Mines), April 1990.

• Carbon Dioxide Emissions:Perspectives and Future Options for Canadian Electric Utilities and the Coal Industry (Hatch Associates for the Canadian ElectricalAssociation and the Coal Researchand Development Sub-Committee of the Inter-Provincial AdvisoryCommittee on Energy), May 1990.

• Energy Use and AtmosphericChange: A Discussion Paper (Energy, Mines and ResourcesCanada), August 1990.

• A Discussion Paper on the Potentialfor Reducing Carbon DioxideEmissions in Alberta — 1988–2005(Alberta Department of Energy),September 1990.

• National Action Strategy on GlobalWarming [Draft] (Canadian Councilof Ministers of the Environment),November 1990.

• Carbon Dioxide Emission ReductionPotential in the Industrial Sector(The Royal Society of Canada for the Ontario Select Committee on Energy), 1990.

• Carbon Dioxide Emissions andFederal Energy Policy: A Discussionof the Economic Consequences ofAlternative Taxes (DRI/McGraw-Hillfor Imperial Oil Ltd.), March 1991.

• The Changing Atmosphere:Strategies for Reducing CarbonDioxide Emissions (City of TorontoSpecial Advisory Committee on the Environment), March 1991.

• Reduction of Energy Use andEmissions in Ontario’s TransportationSector (Ontario Ministries of Energy,Environment and Transportation),April 1991.

• Carbon Dioxide Reduction throughEnergy Conservation (RTMEngineering for the CanadianPetroleum Association), May 1991.

• The Economically Attractive Potentialfor Energy Efficiency Gains in Canada(Peat Marwick Stevenson and KelloggManagement Consultants for Energy,Mines and Resources Canada), May 1991.

• Degrees of Change: Steps Towards an Ontario Global WarmingStrategy (The Ontario GlobalWarming Coalition), June 1991.

• Integrated Air Emissions Trade-offsStudy (Robert Auld and Associatesfor the Canadian PetroleumAssociation), December 1991.

• Market-based Approaches toManaging Air Emissions in Alberta(Canadian Petroleum Associationand Alberta departments of Energy and Environment), 1991.

• Canadian Competitiveness and the Control of Greenhouse GasEmissions (DRI/McGraw-Hill for a consortium of five federal government departments), 1993.

Studies not listed in EnvironmentCanada’s report include:

• studies either sponsored or conductedby the Quebec government thatexamine the connection betweenfuture energy use in Quebec andgreenhouse gas emissions; and

° a recent study commissioned by the City of Toronto, ElectricityConservation and DemandManagement, that identified the economic potential for the conservation of electricity in thecity. Another study, Electricity, Oiland Natural Gas, is now developinga detailed implementation programto tap this potential.

These studies make it clear that thereare many different views on the costsand benefits associated with takingaction to limit greenhouse gas emissionsin Canada. An important part of socio-economic analysis is understanding the range of possible policy options to address climate change and thenature of their effects on human activities and greenhouse gas emissions.


Some current work:

• In 1992, as part of its follow-up to the Green Plan, the federal government released a discussionpaper on the potential use of economic instruments to pursue thegoals of environmental protectionand sustainable development. The discussion paper, EconomicInstruments for EnvironmentalProtection, is a technical analysis of the potential application of awide range of economic instrumentsto environmental problems, includingclimate change. The paper wasdesigned to stimulate public debateand further research in this area.The federal government also established a university-basedresearch program on the practicalapplication of economic instruments.

• Environment Canada and the US Environmental ProtectionAgency are co-sponsoring a study by ICF Incorporated and Barakatand Chamberlin that will try to determine whether there is any economic potential for a greenhousegas emissions trading regimebetween Canada and the United States.

• The Canadian Global ChangeProgram, with support from theCanadian Climate Program, drewtogether consultants, academics andrepresentatives of energy industriesto form a panel named COGGER(Canadian Options for GreenhouseGas Emission Reductions) and askedthem to propose strategies toreduce energy-related greenhousegas emissions in all sectors ofCanada’s economy. The panel’sreport was released in September1993. The Panel found, amongother things, that (a) it appears feasible and cost-effective toachieve Canada’s interim target of stabilization of greenhouse gasemissions at 1990 levels by 2000 and to achieve an absolute reduction of about 20% by 2010; (b) improved energy efficiency is the key to stabilizing energy-related

CO2 emissions over the next twodecades (Fuel switching plays a much smaller role.); (c) to meet targets will require achieving virtually all of the economic potentialfor energy efficiency and fuelswitching; (d) government policywill be required to make this happen; and (e) the most effectiveform of policy is a combination of government-set targets andtimetables, some regulation inappropriate end-use sectors, and astrong emphasis upon market-basedinstruments to provide incentivesfor achievement of targets.

• Representatives of industry andenvironmental groups formed theEconomic Instruments Collaborativeto examine the applicability of economic instruments to air qualityissues, including climate change.The Collaborative’s final report was released in November 1993. The report proposes the adoption of a number of measures aimed atreducing greenhouse gas emissions.These measures include the implementation of cost-effectiveconservation and energy efficiencymeasures, as well as subsidy removal,voluntary actions by industryfor credit, and further design of an economic instrument that wouldaddress both environmental protec-tion and competitiveness concerns.

This chapter has illustrated that a significant amount of work is underway in Canada to reduce the scientificand socio-economic uncertainties thatsurround the climate change issue.While this represents a strong beginning,much remains to be done. Research projects such as those described aboveare an ongoing necessity and will continue to be an important part of Canada’s climate change policy for years to come.


Chapter 8


Under the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change, Canadais committed to ensuring that all policymaking consider climate change. The Convention states that developed countries shall:

… identify and periodically review[their] own policies and practices whichencourage activities that lead to greaterlevels of anthropogenic emissions ofgreenhouse gases not controlled by theMontreal Protocol than would otherwiseoccur, and … take climate change consid-erations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions,and employ appropriate methods, forexample impact assessments … of projectsor measures undertaken by them tomitigate or adapt to climate change.

This chapter examines action taken in Canada to help meet these commitments.

Reviewing Existing Policies

In its Green Plan, Canada’s federal government made a commitment to “…undertake a comprehensive review of the environmental implications of existing statutes, policies, programs,and regulations, and propose modifica-tions as necessary.” Examples of workunder way to meet this commitmentinclude:

• a federal-provincial/territorialreview of agricultural programs;

• a review by the CanadianInternational Development Agency

(CIDA) of its project funding of thepast five years against sustainabledevelopment criteria;

• a regulatory review of all depart-ments with an environmental component; and

• a co-operative effort betweenEnvironment Canada and the Officeof the Comptroller General to inte-grate environmental considerationsinto program evaluation processes.

The federal government is continuingto review further options for fulfillingits commitments in this area.

Environmental Assessment

The Government of Canada has established assessment procedures tointegrate environmental considerationsinto the early stages of the planning of projects, policies and programs whereit has decision-making authority.

At present, the federal EnvironmentalAssessment Review Process (EARP) guidelines order is the primary mecha-nism for environmental assessment.EARP requires full consideration of the environmental implications of allproposals where the federal governmenthas decision-making authority. This mustbe done in the planning stages of the project. When the implications arepotentially significant, a panel review of the project proposal is required.

The Canadian EnvironmentalAssessment Act (CEAA) will replaceEARP. This Act sets out responsibilitiesand procedures for the assessment

Chapter 9


of projects where the federal govern-ment has decision-making authority as a proponent, land manager, sourceof funding or regulator. The CEAA also addresses potential transboundaryeffects across both interprovincial and international boundaries.

As a result of a 1990 decision by the federal Cabinet, all policy and program initiatives submitted toCabinet for consideration must undergo an environmental assessmentbefore Cabinet approval can be granted.

Finally, the federal government isinvolved in agreements that mandateenvironmental assessment at both a regional and an international level. For example, the James Bay NorthernQuebec Agreement requires a federalenvironmental assessment of certaindevelopment projects. The assessmentexamines the project’s impact on the Cree and Inuit people and on the wildlife resources of the region.

Internationally, Canada has signed, but not yet ratified, the United NationsEconomic Commission for EuropeConvention on Environmental Impact in a Transboundary Context. ThisConvention requires an environmentalassessment of projects that potentiallyaffect areas outside the country.

All provinces and territories have environmental assessment procedures,and an increasing number of private sector companies have made environmental assessment a way of doing business.


Chapter 9


Climate change is a global problem that requires international co-operationto design and implement solutions.While most historical greenhouse gasemissions have been produced in developed countries, developing countries will be responsible for themajority of future emissions. The Framework Convention on ClimateChange is the foundation on which allcountries can build and enhance theirco-operative efforts in the years ahead.

To this end, the Convention requiresdeveloped countries to:

• provide new and additional finan-cial resources to meet the agreedfull incremental costs incurred bydeveloping countries in complyingwith their commitments under theConvention;

• promote, facilitate and finance thetransfer of, or access to, environmen-tally sound technologies and know-how to other parties to enable themto implement the provisions of theConvention; and

• co-ordinate, as appropriate withother industrialized nations, relevanteconomic and administrative instruments developed to achievethe objectives of the Convention.

Industrialized nations are also encour-aged to provide financial resources todeveloping countries through bilateral,regional and other multilateral channels.

While action by individual countries is key to successfully implementing the Convention on Climate Change, it is equally important that all countriesact in partnership.

Co-operation WithDeveloping Countries

The Canadian government, through theCanadian International DevelopmentAgency (CIDA) and other departments,encourages activities in developing countries that support the objectives of the Convention. Canada can make an important contribution in helpingthese countries meet their commitmentsunder the Convention, while continuingto assist their efforts to remedy theireconomic, social and environmentalproblems.

Multilateral Co-operation

Developing countries made severalimportant commitments in theConvention on Climate Change. DuringConvention negotiations, however, theyexpressed concern regarding their ability to find the resources to fulfillthese commitments. The Conventionclearly recognizes that economic andsocial development, as well as the eradication of poverty, are of primaryimportance to these nations.

Agreement was reached in theConvention negotiations to designate an appropriately restructured GlobalEnvironment Facility (GEF) as the inter-im mechanism to provide new and addi-tional financial resources to developingcountries. The World Bank, the UnitedNations Development Program (UNDP)and the United Nations EnvironmentProgram (UNEP) established the GEF in 1990 as a three-year pilot to fundprojects on climate change and otherglobal environmental issues.

Chapter 10

InternationalCo-operation

By May 1993, US$727 million had beenallocated by the GEF for activities in the four focal areas: climate change,biodiversity, ozone depletion and inter-national waters. Of this total, 40% wasallocated to climate change projects.The majority of the approximatelyUS$400 million of unallocated GEF fund-ing is co-financing or parallel financingover which the implementing agenciesdo not have the same influence as theydo for core funds. However, a significantportion of these funds will also go to climate change activities. A recent GEFdiscussion paper proposed that 40% to 50% of GEF resources in the nextphase (1994–96) should be allocated for climate change activities.

Canada’s obligation to provide new andadditional funds to developing countriesto cover the agreed full incremental costsof implementing the Convention will be met through its contribution to theGlobal Environment Facility. Canadiansupport during the pilot phase totalledC$25 million. Canada has made a commit-ment to contribute its fair share to the replenished and restructured GEF for the 1994–96 period.

In addition to the new and additionalfinancial resources provided throughthe GEF, Canada also provides fundingto other multilateral organizations that assist developing countries in their efforts to make the Convention on Climate Change a success. In 1992and 1993, for example, Canada contributed C$1.3 million to the WorldMeteorological Organization (WMO) forwork on climate-related issues, focusingon capacity building in developingcountries. The WMO co-ordinates global scientific weather and climateinformation and other services for public, private and commercial use.Within the United Nations, the WMO is the authoritative scientific voice on the state and behaviour of theEarth’s atmosphere and climate.

Moreover, at the Earth Summit, Canadaannounced that it would double itsannual contribution to the UnitedNations Environment Program to C$11million over the next five years.

Founded in 1972, UNEP is the focal pointfor environmental action and co-ordina-tion within the United Nations system.Canada’s support will assist the agency toact on its priority issues, including climatechange and climate-related activities.

Canada has also supported the partici-pation of developing countries in inter-national efforts to deal with the climatechange issue and contributed C$170,000to the Intergovernmental NegotiatingCommittee of the Convention for developing countries to participate in the negotiations. Canada continuedthis financial support in 1993 (and will continue it in 1994) for activities leadingto the first Conference of the Parties of the FCCC.

Canada’s commitment to supportingdeveloping country involvement inresolving the climate change issue is also evidenced by its financial contribu-tions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Created in1988 by the WMO and UNEP, the IPCC is mandated to assess the science andsocio-economics of climate change, as well as related response strategies.Between 1989 and 1993, Canada provid-ed C$200,000 for the participation of developing countries, C$150,000 foradministrative support and significantin-kind contributions. Canada will continue to donate financial resourcesto the IPCC to ensure the strong developing country presence that is essential to the Panel’s success.

Bilateral Co-operation

Canada’s bilateral co-operation withdeveloping countries has traditionallyfocused on economic and social devel-opment. Increasingly, however, Canadais paying greater attention to the fundamental issues of sustainability and the mitigation of localized andglobal environmental problems.

In 1992, the Canadian InternationalDevelopment Agency released its Policyfor Environmental Sustainability. The principal goals are to increase thecapacity of developing countries to planand implement activities that are environmentally sustainable; and to


Chapter 10


strengthen the capability of developingcountries to contribute to the resolutionof global and regional environmentalproblems, while meeting their development objectives.

A significant portion of Canadian development assistance is consistentwith key thrusts of the Convention onClimate Change, notwithstanding that,the purpose of official developmentassistance is to address critical economicand social imperatives, not mitigate the effects of climate change.

Country Studies and Related Work

To strengthen the capability of devel-oping countries to implement theirConvention obligations, Canada hasassisted some interested nations in thepreparation of country studies. Canadiangovernment officials and private-sectorrepresentatives are working with thegovernments of China, Mexico, Tanzaniaand Zimbabwe to enhance their capacityto respond to climate change.

Country studies involve the preparationof inventories of sources and sinks ofgreenhouse gases. These inventories laythe groundwork for forecasting futurelevels of emissions and identifying andassessing opportunities for limiting theseemissions within and among various economic sectors. Once the range of reduction opportunities has been identified, options can be evaluated in light of feasibility, cost, ease of implementation and national priorities.

In addition, country studies can alsoassist in identifying projects that couldbe funded by the GEF or be implementedjointly by a developed and a developing country. To date, Canadahas invested approximately C$300,000 in these country studies. In 1994 andbeyond, it is anticipated that furtherfinancial resources will be allocated.

Canada’s bilateral assistance to developing countries also includesjoint climate change and climate-relatedprojects under Environment Canada’senvironmental co-operation agreementswith China and Mexico. A similar bilateral agreement exists with Russia.

Natural Resources Canada is also active in China. Its Energy Research Laboratories(ERL), in conjunction with BC HydroInternational and the Chinese Ministry of Energy, have developed a conceptualdesign for a Chinese combustion researchfacility tailored to Chinese needs. The ERL continue to advise the Chinesegovernment on extending these conceptsto construction and operation of thefacility. As the world’s largest coal producer, China can reduce its green-house gas emissions significantly if this coal is used more efficiently.

Reduction of Net Greenhouse GasEmissions

The Canadian InternationalDevelopment Agency’s bilateral program includes numerous activitiesthat satisfy the needs of developingcountries while minimizing the net output of greenhouse gas emissions.

Energy Supply

CIDA has financed or co-financednumerous hydro-electric projects that have offset significant levels of greenhouse gas emissions that would have been produced through the combustion of fossil fuels.

An example is the Systems ImprovementProject for Kerala State Electricity Board(KSEB) in India. The project has a budgetof C$34 million and is scheduled for com-pletion in 1997. A water managementcentre is being established to optimizethe generation of hydro-electric energy,thus minimizing the need for additionalthermal generation. Electrical energylosses are also being reduced, and effi-ciency and reliability increased, throughthe installation of capacitors and theupgrading and/or reconductoring of transmission lines, distribution linesand station facilities.

CIDA is also involved in the financing of renewable-energy projects in developing countries. These include:

• a C$4 million CIDA project that is providing 200 solar-poweredwater pumps for village water supply in Morocco;


• several CIDA-funded biogas projectsin India and Pakistan;

• a C$4 million CIDA project in the ASEAN area to promote the use of solar drying; and

• a total of C$5 million for a CIDAproject studying renewable-energytechnologies for application insouthern African countries.

These projects reduced and will contin-ue to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.To date, CIDA has provided over C$15million in funding for projects involvingnew and renewable energy.

CIDA is also assisting developing countries to produce and make use oflow-carbon fuels. Several CIDA-financedprojects in Bangladesh, for example,with more than C$46 million in funding,have assisted the country in developingits natural gas resource. CIDA has alsofunded a C$5 million project inBarbados to conserve natural gas, primarily methane (CH4), produced in conjunction with oil. Much of the gashad previously been flared or vented tothe atmosphere. A CIDA-funded projectin Pakistan included a similar initiative.

The International Development ResearchCentre (IDRC) has two ongoing projectsthat address energy supply. A project to study the socio-economic effects ofenergy projects in Ghana was funded in 1991. In 1992, IDRC committed fundsto a study of the use and conservation of fuel wood in Wadi Allaqui, Egypt. This project is an entry point to the study of the sustainable management of renewable resources.

The Canadian nuclear industry reducesatmospheric carbon dioxide through thesupply of CANDU plants to developingcountries. Transfer of nuclear powertechnology is part of the partnershipwith these countries.

Energy Demand

CIDA has financed approximately 30 projects in developing countries involvingenergy and electrical-system planning,the setting of energy policies and thedetermination of least-cost methods for satisfying the projected demand for

energy. In these projects, loss reduction,demand-side management (DSM) andenergy conservation were considered in addition to supply options. Some of the projects were implemented within the UNDP-World Bank EnergySector Management and AssistanceProgram (ESMAP).

Although energy options within theseprojects are judged on their ability to satisfy projected demand at minimumcost and at an acceptable level of localized environmental impact, theyinevitably lead to choices resulting in the more efficient use of energy,thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A total of C$63 million in funding has been allocated to date.

CIDA is also involved in projects toobtain energy efficiency improvements.More than C$25 million has been spenton nine projects promoting energy efficiency or energy conservation.

In the transportation sector, CIDA has historically concentrated on the planningand delivery of transportation infrastruc-ture at the national level, particularly in railways. In fact, CIDA has been secondonly to the World Bank in support of the rail sector, with investments of over C$10 million in each of 22 developingcountries. Rail transport uses less energyper passenger than other modes of trans-port, thereby resulting in a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

The IDRC is also working to help devel-oping countries reduce their greenhousegas emissions. For example, the Centrerecently provided approximatelyC$450,000 for a two-year project withuniversities from China, Hong Kong,India, the Philippines and Thailand.Researchers from the IDRC and each university examined the structure andcomposition of urban household energyconsumption and its determinants, mea-sured air pollution from different energysources and made recommendationsregarding energy and environmentalpolicies, urban planning and management.


Chapter 10


A two-year IDRC project with a Mexicanuniversity is aimed at studying policyinstruments for managing public trans-portation in Mexico City and ways toimprove public transit to satisfy demandfor services while reducing greenhousegas emissions. The IDRC also funds a project in Senegal for developing adata base on emission and impact coefficients for energy production andend-use technologies that can be usedto reflect the environmental implica-tions of alternative energy scenarios.

Greenhouse Gas Sinks

Canada is one of the largest donors in terms of assistance to developing countries in forestry, with average annual funding by CIDA exceedingC$100 million. Funding has focused onforest management, social forestry, agroforestry and institutional strengthening.In addition to the basic developmentalobjectives, its projects protect greenhouse gas sinks and ensure the recycling of carbon.

Ensuring the sustainable supply of fuelwood while reducing demand byimproving the efficiency of wood useand introducing fuel-efficient stoves isone important developmental objective.Examples include the Andrah PradeshSocial Forestry Project in India and theK-BIRD Project in Nepal, which areincreasing fuel wood supplies throughthe establishment of plantations.

CIDA was instrumental in founding the Tropical Forest Action Program incollaboration with the World ResourcesInstitute, the Food and AgricultureOrganization (FAO), UNDP and theWorld Bank. Since 1985, CIDA has takenthe lead in producing four nationalforestry action plans for developing countries and has participated in the formulation of eight more. Total financialcontributions by CIDA have been morethan C$2 million.

Adaptation to Climate Change

CIDA programs advance the objectivesof the Convention through measures to help developing countries adapt toeventual changes in climate. Acquiring

accurate data describing the status of important ecosystems is key to thegeneration and implementation of climate change adaptation policies.

Modern geographical information systems (GIS) combine sophisticatedtelecommunications technologies (satel-lite and radar) and aerial photographictechniques with powerful computingtechnologies. GIS permit the remoteacquisition of geographical and ecologi-cal data that can be used to chart andpredict possible changes in ecosystemvariables. CIDA has supported countriesin the use and interpretation of GIS.

CIDA has also funded:

• A project in the Acre province of Brazil to collect data on the low-canopy rain forest. These datawill be used to characterize the sizeand type of rain forest vegetation,and will establish a baseline for mea-suring changes in the rain forest.

• An aerial photographic project in the Leeward and Windward Islandsof the Caribbean. Deforestation andcoastal erosion can be identified andquantified using the collected data.During the second phase, a computermodel will predict the effects of thisdeforestation and coastal erosion.

• Projects in southern Africa (hydrolog-ical monitoring of the Zambezi River),Pakistan (snow and ice monitoring in the Upper Indus Basin), and Egyptand Indonesia (support to agenciesresponsible for water resource management). All these projects will provide data that can be used to detect significant climatic trends.

CIDA is contributing core funding to the International Rice Research Institute(IRRI). Some of the Institute’s researchincludes an examination of different climate change scenarios on the produc-tion of rice, as well as on the level of CH4emissions from irrigated rice fields.

CIDA also provides core funding to theConsultative Group on International Agri-culture Research (CGIAR), which conductsresearch on land and crop managementtechniques and on the expansion of


genetic stocks. Initiatives such as theseassist the global community in adaptingagricultural practices to climate change.

The IDRC has provided C$400,000 for a three-year project with the Inter-national Center for Agricultural Researchin the Dry Areas (ICARDA) based in Syria.Scientists from ICARDA, Turkey andMorocco are jointly undertaking a seriesof case studies to quantify and model climatic variability over time and space,and its effect on crop growth. The IDRC isalso providing C$160,000 for a three-yearproject with India’s Tata Energy ResearchInstitute that includes an assessment ofgreenhouse gas emissions and the impactdifferent scenarios of climate change willhave on components of society in SouthAsia. Constraints and incentives to adap-tive measures will also be identified.

Of course, all relevant infrastructureprojects funded by CIDA (in the transportation and energy sectors for instance) allow for possible floods or storms, determined on the basis of statistical probability.

Transfer of Technology

Technology transfer, including training,strengthening institutions and capacitybuilding, has always been fundamentalto CIDA’s programming. In fact, muchof Canada’s financial co-operation withdeveloping countries incorporates technology transfer components. CIDAapproaches the transfer of technologyfrom a partnership perspective, betweendeveloping countries and the Canadianprivate sector, governments andnon-governmental organizations.

Recognizing that the creation and diffusion of new technologies to detectand mitigate localized environmentaleffects, and to mitigate, and adapt to,climate change in the future, depend in large part on the creativity anddynamism of the private sector, CIDA has expanded its co-operation withCanadian industry in the field of environmental technology transfer.

CIDA’s Project Support for EnvironmentProgram was announced at the UnitedNations Conference on Environment and

Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiroin June 1992. The program co-financesjoint ventures between companies inCanada and companies in developingcountries for the production and transfer of environmental technologies,including the testing, adaptation anddemonstration of Canadian technology.Through this C$5 million program, CIDAprmotes the use of clean and efficienttechnologies that minimize adverseenvironmental effects, including theemission of greenhouse gases, whilemaximizing the economic and socialbenefits derived from their use.

CIDA also works with other donors and the United Nations DevelopmentProgram to bring Capacity-21 into opera-tion. It is a program announced at theUNCED to assist developing countries in preparing national sustainable development plans. These plans willaddress, among other issues, climatechange and climate-related matters.

CIDA already has some experience inthe development of such plans, havingassisted Pakistan in the development ofa comprehensive national conservationstrategy. Work is now under way withPakistan to implement this strategythrough institutional strengthening. A total of C$13 million is involved.Although it focuses on capacity building,mitigating localized environmentalimpact and using resources efficiently,the strategy will also help to reducegreenhouse gas emissions and protectgreenhouse gas sinks.

CIDA helps developing countries acquireenvironmental management skills, draftenvironmental legislation and regula-tions, and identify and implement environmental strategies. For example,the Environmental ManagementDevelopment Program in Indonesia,implemented jointly by DalhousieUniversity and the Indonesian Ministry of State for Population and Environment,is designed to upgrade environmentalmanagement capabilities through institutional strengthening and humanresource development. To date, the program has received C$10 million infunding and will receive a further C$31million in the future.


Chapter 10


The International Development ResearchCentre also engages in extensive researchinto the development of appropriate andalternative technologies, as well as theirreplicability and dissemination to devel-oping countries. It recently produced a handbook entitled 101 Technologies.

International Co-ordination ofPolicy Instruments WithDeveloped Countries

In implementing its climate changecommitments, Canada is co-operatingnot only with developing countries butalso with partners in the industrializedworld.

In acknowledging common, but differen-tiated, responsibilities and differing levelsof economic development, industrializednations accepted broader commitments,some with shorter time frames, thanthose adopted by the developing world.As such, Canada and its industrializedpartners have agreed to co-ordinate relevant economic and administrativeinstruments developed to achieve the objective of the Convention.

Work on economic and administrativeinstruments to mitigate climate changetakes place in fora such as the Organi-zation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD), the InternationalEnergy Agency (IEA) and theInternational Institute for AppliedSystems Analysis (IIASA).

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development wasfounded in 1960 and includes 24 membersfrom developed countries. It promoteseconomic and social welfare throughoutthe OECD by assisting member states to co-ordinate their policies. Throughoutits membership, Canada has contributedfinancially and in kind to the operationof the OECD.

Canada is an active participant in the many climate change activities currently under way throughout theOECD structure. The chair of theEnvironment Policy Committee isCanadian, and Canada is well

represented on its three sub-commit-tees (economics, energy, pollution prevention).

Canada also chairs informal meetings of experts involved in the preparationof national reports on climate changeand the assessment of the environmentalimpact of support to the energy sector.Canada is a full participant on theEconomics Policy Committee and on the Working Party on DevelopmentAssistance and Environment of theDevelopment Assistance Committee.

The International Energy Agency was founded in 1974 by members of the OECD to examine ways to improvethe world’s energy supply and demandstructure through the development ofalternative energy sources and increasedefficiency of energy use. Using financialcontributions from Canada and othermembers, the IEA is studying the impactof the Convention on Climate Changeon various energy sectors and is assessingOECD commitments on climate changejointly with the OECD.

One example of IEA work with respectto alternative energy sources began in 1978, when several countries withinthe IEA, including Canada, signed anagreement for a program of research,development and demonstration related to forest energy — the ForestEnergy Agreement (FEA). In May 1986,this was replaced with the BioenergyImplementing Agreement. Canada contributes approximately C$120,000annually to this IEA program.

Canada also contributes C$180,000annually to the IEA’s GreenhouseResearch and Development Program,which evaluates technologies for theabatement and control of greenhousegas emissions from fossil fuel use. Theoverall objective of this three-year project (1991–94) is to provide authoritative advice that policy makersand regulators need for decision making. The Canada Centre for Mineraland Energy Technology (CANMET) of Natural Resources Canada is the Canadian representative on the project’s executive committee.


The International Institute for AppliedSystems Analysis (IIASA), founded in1973, is an interdisciplinary, non-govern-mental research institute with a mandate to conduct scientific studiesproviding information and options onissues of global environmental, economicand social concern. Canada offers financial support to IIASA. In 1992 and1993 IIASA organized internationalworkshops and conferences on climatechange, and on the economics of climate change.

At the bilateral level, EnvironmentCanada’s environmental co-operationagreements with France, Germany,Hong Kong, Japan, Norway, theNetherlands, Russia, the UnitedKingdom and the United States allowfor co-operation on climate change and climate-related issues.

Canada’s recent signing of the NorthAmerican Agreement on EnvironmentalCo-operation with Mexico and the UnitedStates is a pledge of the three countries’commitment to environmentally sustainable growth. This agreement is a side agreement to the North AmericanFree Trade Agreement (NAFTA,) and its objectives include the promotion of sustainable development, co-operationon conservation, protection andenhancement of the environment andthe effective enforcement of, and compli-ance with, domestic environmental laws.

Some provincial governments are also involved in international efforts to find policy solutions. For example,the government of Quebec is workingwith the Commission of the EuropeanCommunity on several research anddemonstration projects on hydrogentechnologies.

Case Study of a CIDA-FundedProject That Contributes toClimate Change Mitigation

Description

Name of Project: .........EnergyRehabilitation

Location: .......................Nicaragua

Budget: .........................C$10 million

Timing:..........................September 1990 to mid–1994.

This project supports Nicaragua’s economic recovery by attempting toresolve problems in the electrical systemthat have increased the cost of operationand lowered the quality of service. Theseproblems occur at all levels within theelectrical system. This project is carryingout improvements in the high-voltagetransmission system and in the lower-voltage electrical distribution system. It is also providing assistance in theoverall operation of the electrical utility. Training and the transfer of skills are key activities.

Climate Change Implications

An important objective of the project isthe reduction of losses in the electricalsystem. In Nicaragua, these losses canequal 25% of the electrical energy produced. The majority of the lossesoccur in the distribution portion of the electrical system, rather than at the high-voltage transmission level.Nicaragua is typical of many developingcountries in this regard.

Total electrical losses in developedcountries do not generally exceed 14%. Reducing losses to similar levels inNicaragua will have a beneficial impacton the economic health of the electricalutility and the country, reduce the costof service to the consumer and improvethe quality of service.

Although Nicaragua is proceeding withthis project for economic and social reasons, the reduction of electrical lossesis also beneficial in terms of climatechange. Nicaragua presently generates


Chapter 10


its electricity by geothermal, hydro-electric and thermal means. Thermalgeneration in Nicaragua is provided by heavy-fuel-oil-fired steam power stations and by gas turbines burninglight-grade diesel fuel. These facilitiescontribute significantly to the country’soverall greenhouse gas emissions.

Reducing energy losses on the electricalsystem will lower demand for energyfrom the thermal power stations, whichare more expensive to operate inNicaragua than hydro-electric or geothermal power stations. If the projectsucceeds in reducing Nicaragua’s totalelectrical losses by 6%, this wouldreduce Nicaragua’s CO2 emissions byapproximately 60 000 tonnes per year.

Other activities in the project areintended to strengthen the electricaltransmission system linking Honduras,Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. This will enable the interconnectedcountries to make more efficient use of their sources of electrical generation,consistent with the move to closerregional co-operation throughoutCentral America. For reasons similar to those in Nicaragua, this will result in a reduction in thermal generation,further reducing CO2 emissions.


Under article 4.2(a) of the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC),developed countries that have signed the Convention are called upon to takethe lead in modifying long-term trends inanthropogenic emissions of carbon diox-ide (CO2) and other greenhouse gasesnot controlled by the Montreal Protocol.A return to earlier levels, that is, 1990 levels, by the end of the present decade,would contribute to such modification.

Overview

This section of the national report represents the beginning of efforts todetermine how quickly, and to whatextent, Canada is meeting its climatechange commitments.

Climate change can be linked to virtually every aspect of modern society.However, the specific relationshipsbetween greenhouse gas emissions andthe human activities associated withthese emissions are highly complex andnot always easy to understand. It willtake fundamental changes in the waysociety operates to modify long-termtrends in greenhouse gas emissions.

Assessing progress involves looking atpast and future emission trends to iden-tify important changes and evaluate theeffectiveness of measures to limit emis-sions and enhance the capacity of sinksand reservoirs. Looking back is a matterof evaluating long-term, sustainableprogress in modifying emissions. Itinvolves identifying changes in historicalemission trends (i.e., since 1990) andevaluating the effects of the varioussocial, economic and technological fac-tors that influenced these trends. These

factors include prices, economic outputlevels, energy use patterns, technologi-cal developments and changes in behav-iour. The effectiveness of emission limi-tation measures in place during the peri-od under review must also be evaluated.

Looking ahead represents an effort toproject future greenhouse gas emissiontrends in Canada, given past experienceand the present situation. An under-standing of the factors that influenceemission trends, of the effectiveness ofexisting limitation measures and of theexpectations for progress are essentialelements of the outlook process. It alsoinvolves making a distinction betweenthe effects of these actions and of otherunderlying factors that can influenceemission trends.

Assessment Tools

Four distinct interrelated tasks can beperformed on a regular basis to assessCanada’s progress in meeting its climatechange commitments:

• the monitoring of historicalyear-to-year trends in net green-house gas emissions,

• the identification of the effects ofsocio-economic and technologicalfactors that influence these trends,

• the projection of future trends inaggregate greenhouse gas emissions,

• the evaluation of the effectivenessof measures to limit emissions andenhance sink capacities.

Together, these tasks provide a bettersense of the progress made and givesome indication of whether, and where,


Section 3

Assessing Canada’s Programs in Mitigating Climate Change


further mitigative action is required. As indicated in the accompanying figure,four corresponding analytical tools canbe used to perform these tasks: emissionsinventories, climate change indicators,emissions outlooks and case studies.

The use of these tools is an evolvingprocess. Improvements in data andmethodologies, and in the understand-ing of the relationship between climatechange and society must be incorporatedon a regular basis. To ensure that thesetools are used in a credible manner,they must be transparent and easilyunderstood.

Chapter 11

Canada’s National Inventory of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Emissions estimates, or inventories, assistin monitoring historical emission trendsin Canada, a key component of the historical assessment. As required underarticle 4.1(a) of the FCCC, Canada mustpublish, on a periodic basis, updatedinventories of emissions of greenhousegases by sources and of the removal ofthese gases by sinks. Canada’s emissionsestimates for 1990, the most recent yearfor which complete data are available,are provided in this chapter. These estimates are to be updated annually.

Chapter 11 contains emissions estimatesfor the three main greenhouse gases:carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4)and nitrous oxide (N2O). These estimatesare on a national, sectoral and provincialbasis. This detail not only reflectsCanada’s commitment to addressing climate change in a comprehensive manner, but also helps to assess progress.It places Canada in a better position to identify the factors contributing toemission changes, to evaluate the effec-tiveness of limitation measures and toidentify opportunities for cost-effectiveaction that best accommodate regionaland sectoral circumstances.

Chapter 12


Climate change indicators can facilitatethe measurement of underlying social,economic, technological and behaviouralfactors that influence emission trends inCanada. Understanding these factors leadsto a more effective assessment of progressand of international comparisons. Thisimproves the understanding of the natureand importance of the factors countriesface when setting goals and developingappropriate response strategies.

A review of historical trends is useful indeveloping a set of indicators. Chapter 12identifies key factors that influencegreenhouse gas emissions and examinesthem using a “decomposition” analysiswith reference to historical emissiontrends. Efforts are continuing in Canadato further develop indicators that willprovide policy makers with a bettermeans to integrate economic considera-tions into environmental decisions.

This chapter also contains a brief exami-nation of the extent to which the levelof CO2 emissions in 1990 relates to long-term trends.

Assessing Canada’s Progress in Mitigating Climate Change

Components ofAssessment

Chapter 13

Canada’s National Emissions Outlook

An emissions outlook represents an effortto project greenhouse gas emission trends.An outlook considers past relationshipsbetween emissions, and socio-economicand technological factors and takes impor-tant linkages between the environmentand the economy into account.

While such an outlook is speculative, itdoes improve the assessment of whetherlong-term, sustainable progress towardsclimate change objectives is being made.Furthermore, it can help determine theextent to which further mitigative actionmay be required. The actual developmentof the emissions outlook is important forsynthesizing views about future emissiontrends and for identifying pressure pointsthat may require more detailed analysis.

Chapter 13 contains an outlook for fossil-fuel-based greenhouse gas emissions inCanada. Based on Canada’s EnergyOutlook, prepared by Natural ResourcesCanada, this outlook provides an esti-mate of future emission trends at theaggregate level — in other words, whatcould happen under a set of plausibleassumptions made about future changesto the factors that influence emissiontrends. It is, however, only one of manypossible scenarios for future emissiontrends in Canada. The emissions outlookassumes that current related Canadianenergy and environmental policiesremain unchanged.

Chapter 14

Case Study of Carbon DioxideEmissions Associated with Space Heating in New Single-Family Homes

Case studies offer a promising tool forassessing the effectiveness of measuresto limit greenhouse gas emissions.However, in building an aggregate picture of Canada’s progress, it is important for these case studies toinclude any economic feedback eitherdirectly related to the measures understudy or resulting from activities inother sectors.

The case study presented in Chapter 14examines an important source of green-house gas emissions in the residentialsector, namely, space heating require-ments in new single-family homes. It assesses the impact of measures toimprove the energy efficiency of spaceheating and serves as a possible modelfor examining other sectors of theCanadian economy. This case study is,however, only a preliminary assessment;a full evaluation can only be donebased on experience.


Section 3


Under the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC),all parties are committed to “…develop,periodically update, publish and makeavailable to the Conference of theParties…national inventories of anthro-pogenic emissions by sources andremovals by sinks of all greenhousegases not controlled by the MontrealProtocol, using comparable method-ologies to be agreed upon by theConference of the Parties.”

Canada has developed and refined inven-tories of its 1990 emissions of the mostsignificant greenhouse gases. The year1990 was selected because as a signatoryto the Convention, Canada has agreed“to return …individually or jointly to…1990 levels of anthropogenic emissionsof carbon dioxide and other greenhousegases not controlled by the MontrealProtocol.”

Greenhouse gas inventories are crucialin any effort to evaluate progress inmitigating climate change. By conduct-ing an inventory, historical trends canbe monitored, the factors contributingto changes in emission levels identified,the effectiveness of limitation measuresevaluated and opportunities for furtheraction established.

Canada’s Approach toGreenhouse Gas EmissionsInventories

Comprehensiveness

Throughout the negotiations for theConvention on Climate Change, Canada

strongly advocated a “comprehensiveapproach” to limiting greenhouse gasemissions. This reflects Canada’s viewthat to be effective, environmentallyand economically, any response to climate change should consider all sig-nificant greenhouse gases, their sourcesand sinks, and their net anthropogenicemissions to the global environment.

Canada’s approach to emission inventorydevelopment reflects this view. Thenational report focuses on five signifi-cant greenhouse gases. These include thethree major anthropogenic greenhousegases not controlled by the MontrealProtocol: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Data arealso being developed and refined foremissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)and polyfluorocarbons (PFCs).

Precursors of ground-level ozone, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatileorganic compounds (VOCs), also contribute to the greenhouse effect.Consequently, emissions inventories of these and other gases are also beingrefined. The most recent emission esti-mates of these gases are included in thisnational report. Another precursor ofground-level ozone, carbon monoxide(CO), is included in the CO2 emissionestimates because CO in the atmosphereundergoes complete oxidation to CO2within 5 to 20 weeks of emission.

Relative Effects of Various Greenhouse Gases

Canada’s greenhouse gas emissionsinventory uses the best available scientificknowledge to determine the relativeeffects of different greenhouse gases on

Chapter 11

Canada’s National Inventoryof Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions

climate. This includes global warmingpotential (GWP) indices to compare therelative warming effects of various green-house gases on the lower atmosphere.

Canada’s national report uses the GWP values presented in theIntergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) 1992 SupplementaryReport. The values are for the directeffects of well-mixed greenhouse gases over a 100-year integration peri-od: CO2 = 1, CH4 = 11, N2O = 270, HFC134a = 1,200 and PFC = 500. Note thatthe GWP values of some greenhousegases may increase once the indirecteffects of emissions on climate areincluded. While this effect is believed to be small for most gases, it may add as much as 50% to the GWP of CH4.

More work is needed to refine GWP values for other greenhouse gases. Forexample, the IPCC recognizes that it haslikely underestimated the GWP for PFCsby at least a factor of two. Moreover,the IPCC cautions that using GWPs tocompare the climate effects of emissionsmay be inappropriate for short-lived,poorly mixed gases such as ground-levelozone and its precursors.

Efforts to develop an international scientific consensus on improved esti-mates are a high priority because thepotential for error in GWP estimates for some greenhouse gases may be significant. This should not, however,prevent the adoption of actions to limit emissions of all greenhouse gases.

Stakeholder Involvement

Credible and comprehensive inventoriesof greenhouse gas emissions are neces-sary to understand Canada’s contributionto climate change and to identify oppor-tunities for limiting these emissions. InDecember 1992, the Conservation andProtection Branch of EnvironmentCanada published Canada’s GreenhouseGas Emissions: Estimates for 1990. Manyother stakeholders have also contributedto the development of greenhouse gasemissions inventories in Canada.

• Provinces and territories

- British Columbia [Concord(1992), ARA Consulting Group(1992), Peat Marwick Stevenson& Kellogg (1992), Levelton(1990, 1992)];

- Alberta [Sentar (1993),Monenco (1992)];

- Manitoba (in progress);

- Ontario [Ortech (1991), Senes (1992), Unisearch (1991),University of Guelph (1991)];

- Quebec (1990); and

- Atlantic provinces [Nolan Davis (in progress)].

• Industrial associations and corporations

- Canadian Association ofPetroleum Producers [Clearstone (1992, 1993)];

- Canadian Electrical Association(1990);

- Canadian Gas Association(1989);

- MacMillan Bloedel [Wellisch (1992)]; and

- TransAlta Utilities (in progress).

• Municipal governments

- Toronto [Special AdvisoryCommittee (1989, 1991)]; and

- Ottawa [Friends of the Earth(1992)].

• Environmental groups

- Climate Action Network’sCarbon Dioxide Report forCanada: 1990 [Friends of theEarth (1992)].

Many of these stakeholders came togeth-er to share information and discuss issues,problems and solutions at the NationalWorkshop on Greenhouse Gas Inventoriesheld in Ottawa in April 1992. The distribu-tion of Environment Canada’s draft reporton emissions to workshop participantsand to other Canadian and internationalexperts, was useful in developing anunderstanding and consensus on the


Chapter 11


report, Canada’s Greenhouse GasEmissions: Estimates for 1990.

If existing methodologies and data foranthropogenic emissions of greenhousegases are to be further refined andevolving climate change science takeninto account, it is essential that theseco-operative national and internationalpartnerships continue.

Overview of Canada’s 1990Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Environment Canada has published com-prehensive estimates of Canada’s 1990anthropogenic emissions of majorgreenhouse gases. That report providesnational data for emissions of CO2, CH4and N2O from stationary fuel combus-tion and transportation sources, indus-trial processes, agricultural activities andother sources. CO2 emissions are disag-gregated and presented for Canadianprovinces and territories for fuel use andindustrial sources. Information is alsoprovided on emissions of halogenatedspecies including CFCs, hydrochlorofluo-rocarbons (HCFCs), carbon tetrachloride(CCl4), tetrafluoromethane (CF4) andhexafluoroethane (C2F6). Biogenicsources and sinks are also discussed.

Methodological work within theOrganization for Economic Co-operationand Development (OECD) and the IPCC istaken into account in the report, whichincludes a detailed description of themethodologies used for the derivation of all the data.

Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions

The Environment Canada report esti-mated that in 1990, the total amount ofCO2, CH4 and N2O released by humanactivities within Canada was equivalentto 526 megatonnes (Mt) of CO2 emis-sions. The relative contribution of thesegases to Canada’s total greenhouse gasemissions is illustrated in Figure 11.1and Table 11.1.

These emissions included 461 Mt of CO2— about 2% of global CO2 emissions.Table 11.2 and Figure 11.2 show CO2emissions for each province and territoryby major sector. Figure 11.3 presentsCanada’s CO2 emissions by sector on anational basis.

Combustion of fossil fuels accounted for94% of Canada’s 1990 CO2 emissions.Transportation contributed 32%, elec-tricity production 20% and industrialsources 16%. Residential and commercialheating, and miscellaneous industrialand other processes were responsible for the remainder.

Figures 11.4 and 11.5 show Canada’s1990 emissions by sector for CH4 andN2O respectively. Landfills were themajor source of CH4, accounting for38% of Canada’s total CH4 emissions of 3.7 Mt. This is equivalent to 41 Mt ofCO2. Other major sources were oil andgas operations (29%), livestock (27%)and coal mining (4%).

Emissions of N2O amounted to an esti-mated 92 kilotonnes (kt), equivalent to25 Mt of CO2. Of this, fuel consumptionaccounted for 52%, adipic acid andnitric acid production for 34%, and fertilizers for 12%.

Other Emissions

Canada has also compiled estimates forother significant greenhouse gases. Forexample, it is estimated that Canadian


Figure 11.1

RelativeContribution of

1990 MajorGreenhouse Gas

Emissions

Note:This figure does not

include other anthro-pogenic greenhouse

gases (CFCs, PFCs, etc.).


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

kilotonnes of carbon dioxide equ

CarbonDioxideGWP=1

MethaneGWP=11

NitrousOxide

GWP=270

Non-Fuel Sourc

Fuel Sources


Chapter 11

Table 11.1

Summary of 1990Major Greenhouse Gas Emissions bySector (kilotonnes)

Notes:1) All anthropogenicgreenhouse gases such asPFCs and HFCs are notincluded in this table.

2) Values of GlobalWarming Potential (GWP)factors do not includeindirect effects formethane.


Transportation Sources

Automobiles 49,019 10 110 20 5,400 54,529 10.4%

Light-duty Gasoline Trucks 23,094 5 55 9 2,430 25,579 4.9%

Heavy-duty Gasoline Trucks 2,235 <1 <1 2,235 0.4%

Motorcycles 149 <1 <1 149 <0.1%

Other 7,292 1 11 1 270 7,573 1.4%

Light-duty Diesel Vehicles 136 <1 <1 136 <0.1%

Heavy-duty Diesel Vehicles 21,410 2 22 3 810 22,242 4.2%

Other Diesel Engines 14,363 1 11 2 540 14,914 2.8%

Air 13,137 1 11 1 270 13,418 2.5%

Rail 6,315 <1 1 270 6,585 1.3%

Marine 7,782 <1 1 270 8,052 1.5%

Subtotal - Mobile Fuel Sources 144,931 23 253 38 10,260 155,444 29.5%

Stationary Sources

Electric Power Generation 93,873 1 11 2 540 94,424 17.9%

Industrial Fuel 75,350 3 33 2 540 75,923 14.4%

Residential Fuel 40,733 2 22 2 540 41,295 7.8%

Commercial Fuel 23,984 1 11 <1 23,995 4.6%

Other Fuel 52,667 <1 <1 52,667 10.0%

Fuel Wood 1 11 3 810 821 0.2%

Subtotal - Stationary Fuel Sources 286,607 8 88 9 2,430 289,125 54.9%

Industrial Processes

Upstream Oil and Gas Production 7,567 1,100 12,100 19,667 3.7%

Natural Gas Distribution ? 18 198 198 <0.1%

Cement/Lime Production 7,666 7,666 1.5%

Non-energy Use 13,620 13,620 2.6%

Coal Mining 143 1,573 1,573 0.3%

Chemical Production ? ? ? 31 8,370 8,370 1.6%

Subtotal - Industrial Processes 28,856 1,261 13,871 31 8,370 51,097 9.7%

Incineration

Wood Waste 1 11 ? ? 11 <0.1%

Other <1 ? ? <0.1%

Subtotal - Incineration 0 1 11 11 <0.1%

Agriculture

Livestock/Manure 1,000 11,000 11,000 2.1%

Fertilizer Use 11 2,970 2,970 0.6%

Land Use Change ? ? ?

Subtotal - Agriculture 0 1,000 11,000 11 2,970 13,970 2.7%

Miscellaneous

Prescribed Burning 38 418 1 270 688 0.1%

Landfills 1,405 15,455 15,455 2.9%

Anaesthetics 2 540 540 0.1%

Subtotal - Miscellaneous 0 1,443 15,873 3 810 16,683 3.2%

National Total 460,394 3,736 41,096 92 24,840 526,330 100%

% of National Total 87% 8% 5%

Source CH4 N2O Total % of TotalCO2 CH4 CO2 N2O CO2 CO2 CO2 Equiv.

Equiv. Equiv. Equiv.


emissions of PFCs amounted to 1.5 kt in1990, but accurate measurements willhave to be carried out.

Emissions of ground-level ozone precur-sors are clear contributors to climatechange, but no GWP value has beenassigned to these gases. They arealready controlled under Protocols ofthe UN Economic Commission forEurope Convention on Long RangeTransboundary Air Pollution.

Table 11.3 provides a summary ofCanada’s 1985 NOx/VOC emissions bysector. A 1990 inventory of these gases is being developed.

Greenhouse Gas Emissionsby Province/Territory

The following analysis draws heavily on the Environment Canada report on greenhouse gas emissions. Furtherinformation on emission sources fromother published and unpublishedreports has also been incorporated.

Emissions are examined by province/terri-tory and then by sector. This format facili-tates the systematic assessment of actionsand options by governments, industriesand other stakeholders to limit the emis-sion of greenhouse gases in Canada.

An analysis of the 1990 emissions ofCO2, CH4 and N2O by province/territoryindicates that significant differencesexist in the amount and sectoral distrib-ution of these emissions within Canada.While emissions associated with trans-portation and heating are generallyproportional to the population of eachprovince/territory, there are significantdifferences in the relative contributionsof other sectors to provincial/territorialgreenhouse gas emissions.

Territories

In 1990, emissions in the Yukon and theNorthwest Territories were small andprimarily due to transportation, heatingand electric power generation.

British Columbia

Transportation accounted for mostemissions in British Columbia in 1990.Greenhouse gas emissions from powergeneration were low because most electricity is provided by hydro-electricstations.

Alberta

Alberta was the second largest sourceof provincial greenhouse gas emissionsin 1990. Coal-fuelled electric powergeneration was the main source ofemissions for the province, followed by transportation. Emissions associatedwith oil and gas production, processingand transportation to markets inCanada and internationally were largerin Alberta than elsewhere in Canada.Emissions associated with cement and other industrial plants were alsonationally significant.

Saskatchewan

While 1990 greenhouse gas emissionsfrom Saskatchewan were less than fromAlberta, they did reflect similar relativecontributions from the power andtransportation sectors. Some emissionswere also associated with oil and gasproduction and export.

Manitoba

As in British Columbia and Quebec, theprimary source of greenhouse gas emis-sions in Manitoba in 1990 was the trans-portation sector. Hydro-electric plantssupplied most of the electric power.


Table 11.2

Summary ofCarbon Dioxide

Emissions bySector, Province

and Territory(kilotonnes), 1990


Transportation 847 19,255 21,107 7,441 6,182 46,784 29,286 4,113 5,420 682 3,814 144,931 32%Electric Power Generation 307 1,227 39,704 10,277 492 25,935 1,430 5,895 6,873 102 1,631 93,873 20%Industrial Fuel 103 7,322 13,804 2,633 1,313 33,204 13,790 1,404 717 37 1,024 75,351 16%Residential Fuel 144 3,986 6,411 2,064 1,606 16,452 6,092 943 1,986 354 694 40,732 9%Commercial Fuel 146 2,825 4,850 960 1,398 8,398 3,876 563 590 130 247 23,983 5%Other Fuel 339 4,370 26,708 4,646 957 9,115 3,029 1,283 1,013 62 1,145 52,667 11%Industrial Processes 6 2,122 13,886 674 236 7,461 3,659 142 273 3 394 28,856 6%TOTAL 1,892 41,107 126,470 28,695 12,184 147,349 61,162 14,343 16,872 1,370 8,949 460,393 100%%of TOTAL <1% 9% 27% 6% 3% 32% 13% 3% 4% <1% 2%

SECTOR TERR. B.C. ALTA. SASK. MAN. ONT. QUE. N.B. N.S. P.E.I. NFLD. TOTAL %


Chapter 11

Figure 11.2

Carbon DioxideEmissions bySector, Provinceand Territory(kilotonnes), 1990


Figure 11.3

Carbon DioxideEmissions bySector, 1990


TERR BC

ALTA

SASK

MAN

ONT

QUE NB NS PE

I

NFLD

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

kilotonne


Other Fuel

Commercial Fuel

Residential Fuel

Industrial Fuel

Electric Power Genera

Transportation

<1%

9%

27%

6%

3%

32%

13%

3%4%

<1%

2%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Transportation

Electric Power Generation

Industrial Fuel

Other

Residential Fuel


Commercial Fuel

32%

20%

16%

11%

9%

6%5%

kilotonne



Figure 11.4

MethaneEmissions bySector, 1990


Figure 11.5

Nitrous OxideEmissions bySector, 1990


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Landfills

Upstream Oil & Gas Production

Agriculture

Coal Mining

Prescribed Burning & Incineration

Transportation

Natural Gas Distribution

Fuel Combustion - Stationar

Electric Power Gener

38%

29%27%

4%1% 1% <1% <1% <1%

kilotonne

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Chemical Production

Automobile

Agriculture

Light-duty Gasoline Trucks

Other Transportation

Other Stationary Combustion

Anaesthetics & Misc.


Industrial

Residential

34%

21%

12%10% 10%

3% 3%2% 2% 2%

kilotonne

Ontario

In 1990, Ontario was the largest provin-cial source of greenhouse gas emissions.This reflects Ontario’s larger populationand industrial base. After the trans-portation sector and industrial fuelusers, coal-fuelled power stations werethe largest source of emissions, eventhough most of Ontario’s electricity in1990 was generated by nuclear andhydro-electric power plants. Non-energysources of greenhouse gas emissionsincluded cement and lime plants (CO2),a nylon intermediates plant and nitro-gen fertilizer plants (N2O). Landfillswere also a major source of CH4.

Quebec

The relatively low per capita CO2 emis-sions in Quebec, in 1990, were due tothe extensive use of hydro-electricity.

The transportation sector was the majorsource of greenhouse gas emissions, followed by industrial fuel users.

New Brunswick

Coal- and oil-fuelled electric power stations were the major sources of emissions in New Brunswick in 1990.Transportation and large industrial fuelusers also contributed to emissions.

Nova Scotia

Electric power generation was thelargest source of emissions in NovaScotia in 1990, with transportation as the second most significant source.Underground coal mines in Nova Scotiawere a more significant source of CH4emissions than surface mines in Alberta,British Columbia and Saskatchewan.


Chapter 11

Table 11.3

NOx/VOC’sEmissions by Sector (kilotonnes)


Automobiles 348 461

Trucks 395 214

Other 432 133

Subtotal — Mobile Fuel Sources 1,175 808

Electric Power Generation 247 3

Industrial Fuel 260 55

Residential Fuel 35 3

Commercial Fuel 27 2

Other Fuel 8 108

Subtotal — Stationary Fuel Sources 577 171

Industrial Processes 100 271

Landfills 0 30

Agriculture 0 0

Miscellaneous 25 606

Subtotal — Non-Fuel Sources 125 907

National Total 1,877 1,886

Transportation NOx VOC’s


Prince Edward Island

Canada’s smallest province producedthe least amount of emissions in 1990,with transportation being the majorsource. Most electricity was importedfrom New Brunswick.

Newfoundland

Transportation accounted for mostemissions in Newfoundland in 1990.This was followed by oil-fuelled electricpower plants. Industrial fuel use wasrelatively significant.

Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Type and Sector

This section examines anthropogenicsources and sinks of greenhouse gasesnot controlled by the Montreal Protocol,by type of emission, removal process and

economic sector. Information on the relative contribution and causes of theemissions, and on the removal by sinks,in each sector is also provided becauseof its importance in assessing options tolimit net anthropogenic emissions ofgreenhouse gases.

Fossil Fuel Combustion and Industrial Processes

It is possible to estimate greenhouse gasemissions from fossil fuel combustionand industrial processes with a fair toexcellent degree of accuracy. At present,no industrial process serves as a sink forgreenhouse gas emissions, althoughresearch is continuing on the viability ofusing CO2 in enhanced oil recovery andother processes.

Transportation

The transportation sector accounted for32% of CO2 emissions, 41% of N2Oemissions and 1% of CH4 emissions in


Figure 11.6

Greenhouse GasEmissions fromTransportation

Sources

Source: Environment Canada

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Automobile

Heavy-duty Trucks

Light-duty Trucks

Other (off-road)

Air

Marine

Rail

Motorcycle

kilotonne of carbon dioxide e

Nitrous Oxide

Carbon Dioxid

Canada in 1990. It was also responsiblefor 63% of NOx emissions and 44% ofVOC emissions in 1985.

Figure 11.6 shows the major emissionsources of CO2 and N2O in the trans-portation sector. The major CO2 sourceswere automobiles (35%), light-dutygasoline trucks (16%), heavy-duty gaso-line trucks (2%) and heavy-duty dieselvehicles (15%). The major N2O sourceswere automobiles (22%) and light-dutygasoline trucks (10%).


This sector contributed 20% of Canada’sCO2 emissions in 1990 and 13% of NOxemissions in 1985. Coal-fuelled powerstations were a major source of CO2emissions, with lesser contributions fromoil- and gas-fuelled electrical generatingunits. This sector was estimated to beresponsible for less than 1% of CH4emissions and only 2% of N2O emissions.

Industrial Use

In 1990, industrial facilities accountedfor 16% of CO2 emissions, less than 1%of CH4 emissions and 2% of N2O emis-sions. However, 14% of Canada’s NOxemissions in 1985 came from this sector.

Residential Use

In 1990, fuel combustion emissions asso-ciated with heating homes and apart-ment buildings accounted for 9% ofCanada’s CO2 emissions and 2% of N2Oemissions.

Commercial Use

In 1990, the combustion of fossil fuels inoffices, institutions and light industrialbuildings accounted for 5% of CO2 emis-sions and less than 1% of N2O emissions.

Other Fuel Combustion Sources

Fuel use in agriculture, public adminis-tration, steam generation, coal mining,refined petroleum product losses andmanufacturing, and natural gas produc-tion and its transportation throughpipelines accounted for 11% ofCanada’s CO2 emissions and very smallamounts of CH4 and N2O emissions.

Upstream Oil and Gas Production

The exploration for, and production of,oil and gas resulted in an estimated 2%of Canada’s CO2 emissions in 1990. CH4emissions from this sector contributedmore to climate change, however,accounting for an estimated 29% ofCanada’s anthropogenic CH4 emissions.

The CO2 emissions originate with thestripping of hydrogen sulphide, CO2and other impurities from sour gas toproduce high-quality natural gas. TheCH4 emissions are associated with gasprocessing and fugitive emissions ingas-gathering systems, compressor and meter stations, and gas batteries.

Natural Gas Distribution

Less than an estimated 1% of Canada’sCH4 emissions in 1990 were associatedwith distribution losses in the naturalgas industry. Factors that influencethese losses include pipeline and compressor station blowdowns, andunaccountable leaks.

Coal Mining

The formation of coal creates CH4. As a result, an estimated 4% of Canada’s1990 CH4 emissions can be attributed tocoal mining operations. Its release intothe environment depends on severalfactors, including type, rank, pressure,temperature, degree of fracturing, distance to outcrop, permeability ofadjacent strata and mining practices.

While Nova Scotia underground mines account for only 4% of Canadiancoal production, they are estimated to be responsible for 50% of mine CH4in Canada. The large surface mines in Alberta, British Columbia andSaskatchewan account for most of the rest of Canada’s CH4 emissions from this sector.

Cement and Lime Production

In 1990, 2% of Canada’s CO2 emissionswere produced by cement and limeplants. CO2 is released from rotary kilnsin the decomposition of limestone (cal-cium carbonate) into calcined limestoneor quicklime (calcium oxide).


Chapter 11


Chemical Production

In 1990, 34% of N2O emissions came fromchemical plants. The vast majority ofthese emissions are a by-product of theadipic acid process. In the manufacture ofnitrogen fertilizers, such as ammoniumnitrate, nitric acid is an intermediateproduct, and N2O may be a by-product.

Non-Energy Industrial Uses of Fossil Fuels

The non-energy use of coal, coke andpetroleum-based products accounted foran estimated 3% of total CO2 emissionsin 1990. Major industries that reportthese non-fuel uses include the iron ore,steel, aluminum and electrical productindustries. Non-energy sources thatrelease carbon include ammonia produc-tion, coke, coals, naphtha, lubricants,liquified petroleum gas and natural gasused as feedstocks.

Anaesthetic Use

Anaesthetic and propellant usageaccounted for 2% of Canadian N2Oemissions in 1990.

Other Gases

In 1990, emissions of CF4 and C2F6 wereestimated at 1.5 kt, coming mostly fromaluminum reduction plants. They remainto be validated with current studies.

Biogenic Processes

Estimating the sources and sinks ofgreenhouse gases that occur throughanthropogenically influenced orinduced biological processes is more difficult than estimating those relatedto fossil fuel combustion and industrialprocesses. Reasons for this includeuncertainties about the size of the biomass reservoirs involved, the rate at which the emission and removalprocesses take place, and whether theprocesses involved are aerobic (CO2production) or anaerobic (CH4 produc-tion). Difficulties also arise becausemany biomass sources and sinks arenon-point sources distributed over large areas.

An additional complicating factor isthat CO2 plays a critical role in the nat-ural flow of carbon through ecosystems.CO2 is removed from the atmospherethrough photosynthesis and releasedagain through biomass decay, respira-tion and combustion.

While humans can modify the spatialand temporal rates of these processesthrough such activities as tree harvest-ing, forest replanting and agriculturalcultivation, the net flow of CO2 into,and out of, these ecosystems will remainin balance as long as the net carbon content in the ecosystem’s biomass and soils, averaged over time and space,remains constant. If the biomass contentincreases, the ecosystem is a net sink forCO2; a decrease indicates a CO2 source.

Forestry

A recent study by Forestry Canada suggests that the carbon content ofCanadian forests is increasing. It is notclear, however, if this increase is theresult of natural biomass accumulationof forests or human forest management.

The greenhouse gas emissions inventoryin this national report does not includethe impact of human activity on sourcesand sinks of CO2 in Canada’s forest lands.Over broad areas and long time periods,biogenic CO2 emissions related to har-vesting, wood burning and processing offorest products in sustainably managedforests should be offset by carbon storedin the ecosystem during forest regrowth.

The one exception to this practicerelates to human activities, such as creating cropland or urban sprawl, thatpermanently convert forest lands intolow-carbon ecosystems or vice versa.Accordingly, land use changes associat-ed with afforestation and deforestationare human activities that change thecarbon content of Canada’s forests.Therefore, they have an impact onCanada’s greenhouse gas emissions.

Environment Canada stopped monitoringland use activity in Canada in 1986.Natural Resources Canada is now develop-ing an environmental indicator packagefor annual tracking of forest disturbance.


Marginal agricultural land is being con-verted back to forest use in many areasin eastern Canada through various feder-al, provincial and federal-provincial pro-grams. Many other stakeholders are alsoinvolved in afforestation efforts, particu-larly in urban areas (see Chapter 5).

Clearing forested land for agriculturalpurposes is continuing in some areas ofthe country, particularly the Peace Riverarea of Alberta and British Columbia. Asa result, land use changes resulting fromhuman activities are not believed to besignificantly increasing or decreasing theextent of Canada’s forested land.

Agricultural Soils

Soil is an important natural sink for CO2.Good soil stewardship that increases soilcarbon content can provide a long-termsink, while poor management of agricul-tural soils by humans can be a majorsource of CO2 emissions. Canada isactively investigating the effect of soilcultivation on carbon reservoirs in itsagricultural soils. This emissions sourcehas not yet been quantified due to a lackof data. Approximately 50% of Canada’stotal agricultural soil carbon has beenlost over time. Since this loss occurs with-in the first few years of cultivation, it isnew agricultural lands that are contribut-ing to current CO2 emissions. At thesame time, there are several federal, and provincial/territorial governmentprograms aimed at increase the carboncontent of Canada’s soils (see Chapter 5).

As a result, Canada believes that sincethe carbon content of soils under cultiva-tion today is more or less in equilibrium,soils are not currently contributing toCanada’s net greenhouse gas emissions.

Waste Disposal Landfills

In 1990, an estimated 38% of Canada’sCH4 emissions came from municipalwaste landfills. Landfill generation rates and composition, and climatic conditions specific to Canada are usedto calculate this emission estimate,which is continually being refined.

Landfills produce CH4 and CO2 in almostequal proportions. The CH4 is producedthrough the anaerobic decompositionof organic degradable materials. Therate of emission depends on many fac-tors, including the composition, age andcover of the waste, the status of thelandfill (active or inactive) and opera-tion practices. The CO2 emissions areassumed to be from biomass and aretherefore not included in the calculatedtotal of the emissions inventory.

Although there are about 10 000 identi-fied active and inactive landfill sites inCanada, 90 of these sites handle over83% of the waste generated.

Livestock

CH4 is emitted through the digestiveprocesses of certain ruminant animalssuch as sheep and cattle. In 1990, CH4emissions from livestock and manureamounted to an estimated 1 000 kt.

Since CO2 emissions from manure areoffset by carbon accumulation in feedcrops, they are not included in thisinventory.

Accuracy of Emission Data

Table 11.4 provides a preliminary quali-tative indication of the relative reliabilityand accuracy of the various greenhousegas emission data presented in Canada’s1990 national greenhouse gas emissionsinventory.

The quality of the data is excellent fornational, provincial and territorial CO2emissions directly associated with fueluse. This includes the transportation,electric power generation, commercialand residential sectors. Emission data forfuel use in the industrial sector are alsoexcellent, primarily because of the veryreliable and comprehensive fuel-usedata compiled in Canada. Reliable emis-sion factors, which convert fuel-use datainto emission data, have also beendeveloped for Canadian fossil fuels.

As indicated in Table 11.4, the reliabilityof CO2 data associated with other indus-trial sources is either very good (e.g., forlime and cement production) or good


Chapter 11


(e.g., for oil and gas production, andnon-energy use). Disaggregated dataare not available for natural gas distrib-ution. Moreover, all of these datashould be further disaggregated onsub-sectoral, provincial/territorial andmunicipal levels to allow for betterassessment of actions to limit emissions.

Generally, CH4 emission data are eithergood (for oil and gas production, gasdistribution), fair (transportation) or poor(for landfills and coal mines). Emissiondata for N2O from nylon plants aregood, but only fair for other sources,such as nitrogen fertilizer plants.

There are some areas where a significantamount of work needs to be done. Forexample, as noted earlier, data are poorfor anthropogenic sinks of greenhousegas emissions. In some areas, such as CH4emissions associated with sewage treat-ment plants, no data are available.

Continuing efforts to improve Canada’sgreenhouse gas emissions inventorieswill consider methodologies beingdeveloped by the OECD and the IPCC.

Future Work

Canadian governments, industries andenvironmental groups are workingtogether to develop and refine anthro-pogenic greenhouse gas emission datafurther. Environment Canada, NaturalResources Canada, provincial and terri-torial environment and energy depart-ments, and others are sponsoring andconducting investigations. Variousindustrial associations are also continu-ing studies in these areas. These includethe Canadian Association of PetroleumProducers (CAPP), the CanadianElectrical Association (CEA), Du PontCanada and l’Association de l’industriede l’aluminium du Québec.

Environment Canada

As part of Canada’s comprehensiveapproach, the Environmental ProtectionService of Environment Canada is man-aging and conducting a program underthe federal government’s Green Plan toreduce uncertainties associated with

information on anthropogenic green-house gas emissions and to supportnational and international commit-ments. This process involves other feder-al departments, provincial/territorialenergy and environment departments,municipalities, industrial associations,


Table 11.4

Assessment of1990 Greenhouse

Gas EmissionData*

Source: Environment Canada

Industrial ProcessesUpsteam Oil and Gas Production F G -NATURAL GAS DISTRIBUTION P F -Cement/Lime Production G - -Non-Energy Use F - -Coal Mining - P -Chemical Production P P G/F

Fuel Combustion - StationaryPower Generation E F GIndustrial E F GResidential E F FCommercial E F FOther E F FFuel Wood F (1) F FSpent Pulping Liquers G (1) - -

Fuel Combustion - TransportationAutomobiles E G FLight-duty Gasoline Trucks E G FHeavy-duty Gasoline Trucks E G FMotorcycles E G FOther E G FLight-duty Diesel Trucks E G FHeavy-duty Diesel Vehicles E G FOther Diesel Engines E G FAir E F PRail E F PMarine E F P

IncinerationWood Waste F (1) F POther F (1) F P

AgricultureLivestock/Manure P (1) P -Fertilizer Use - - PLand Use Change P P -

MiscellaneousPrescribed Burning G (1) G GLandfills P (1) P -Use of CFC’s - - -Anaesthetics - - G

Overall Assessment G F F

(1) Biomass E-Excellent F - Fair G - Good P -Poor* Table only provides qualitative indication of data accuracy.

SOURCE CO2 CH4 N2O

environmental groups and other stakeholders.

One of the major objectives of theEnvironment Canada program is todevelop and maintain comprehensiveinventories of greenhouse gases, whichwill evolve into a national greenhousegas emissions reporting and assessmentsystem. This involves greenhouse gasmeasurements and inventories, assess-ments of limitation options and strate-gies, and forecasts of greenhouse gasemissions. The initial emphasis has beenon supporting measurements and inven-tories of greenhouse gas emissions.

Measurements

As discussed earlier, data for some sig-nificant sources of greenhouse gas emis-sions remain relatively uncertain. Theseinclude CH4 emissions from landfills andcoal mines, N2O emissions from vehiclesand PFC emissions from aluminumsmelters.

The Pollution Measurement Division of the River Road EnvironmentalTechnology Centre (RRETC) ofEnvironment Canada has a mobile laboratory and state-of-the-art analyz-ers to measure greenhouse gas emis-sions in the field. A multi-componentnon-dispersive infrared (NDIR) analyzercan quickly measure concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O. A portable massspectrometer can screen other significantcompounds.

While considerable expertise exists insampling gases from stacks, it is moredifficult to measure emissions from diffuse sources such as landfill surfaces.Environment Canada uses a modifiedenclosed flux chamber technique toovercome the deficiencies of existingtechniques. This non-obtrusive proce-dure has been tested under laboratoryand field conditions. The mobile labora-tory also has the ability to measureemissions from conventional stacks.

Using these advanced sampling and ana-lytical techniques, a project is under wayto refine emission data for Canadianmunicipal waste disposal sites and otherfacilities. Landfills of different ages,compositions and modes of operation

are being studied. This work may beextended to other diffusion-type areasources such as coal fields.

The Vehicle Emissions Testing Laboratoryat the RRETC tests vehicles to ensure com-pliance with regulatory requirements fornew vehicles. Fourier transform infrared(FTIR) technology has recently been usedto measure tailpipe emissions for N2Oand CH4 in addition to other gases.

While catalytic converters reduce con-centrations of NOx and other pollutants,they increase concentrations of N2O.Preliminary tests to study the effect ofaged converters and different drivingmodes indicate that urban driving cyclesseem to increase N2O emissions signifi-cantly. As a result, N2O emissions may behigher than previously reported. Furthertests will help refine N2O emissions datafrom vehicles.

The Association de l’industrie de l’alu-minium du Québec, Quebec Environmentand Environment Canada are workingtogether to develop sampling and analyt-ical techniques to measure emissions ofPFCs more accurately. Aluminum smeltersare the only known source of these gases— CF4 and C2F6. With GWPs that are pos-sibly greater than 4,500 and 6,200 respec-tively, these gases are very powerfulheat-trapping agents, especially whencompared with CO2. This project may alsoprovide process design and operationalinformation to help limit the emissions ofthese gases.

Inventory Methodologies and Data

In 1991, the IPCC established a work program to develop an approvedmethodology for calculating greenhousegas emissions inventories and to assist allparticipating countries in implementingthis methodology by the end of 1993.Canada, along with several other coun-tries, volunteered to participate in a pro-gram to improve comparisons betweencurrent emission inventory methods.

This program involved a two-partdetailed review. First, the IPCC methodwith default assumptions was tested andthe results compared to participants’estimates. To the extent possible, the


Chapter 11


methods were tested for CO2 emissionsfrom energy combustion; CH4 emissionsfrom coal mining, livestock and landfills;and N2O emissions from mobile sourcesand industry. A comparison of assump-tions and results was made and the differences highlighted.

Second, participating countries werepaired to exchange data and openly critique the results. Areas of disagree-ment were evaluated and discussed.Canada worked with Norway, and therewas close agreement between the workof the two countries.

Emission estimates for CO2 using theIPCC method and Canada’s differed byless than 1%. These results were pre-sented at an IPCC-sponsored workshopin Bracknell, United Kingdom in October1992. There were greater differences forN2O and CH4 emissions, but they couldbe accounted for by the uncertaintyassociated with these figures.

It is anticipated that with the expansionand refinement of the methodologiesof both the IPCC and Canada, emissionsestimated by either method will givesimilar results. Any significant differ-ences will be highlighted in futurenational reports.

Greenhouse gas emission data are beingadded by the federal, provincial andterritorial governments to the ResidualDischarge Information System (RDIS), amajor emission data bank for over 3 000industrial point sources in Canada.

Environment Canada will continue todevelop and refine greenhouse gasemission methodologies and data, con-sistent with best available scientificinformation, and will continue to sharethis information nationally and interna-tionally.

Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada has recently publishedCanadian Greenhouse Gas Emissions: AnInput-Output Study, which describesgreenhouse gas emissions fromCanadian economic activity for the year1985. The study is based on the struc-ture of the Canadian input-outputtables and, as such, is linked to theSystem of National Accounts (SNA) compiled by Statistics Canada. Emissiondata for CO2, CH4, N2O, VOCs, NOx andCO from 50 industries, households andgovernments are presented. The studyincludes an impact table, showing thegas emissions associated with the deliv-ery of C$1,000 worth of each of 92 com-modities to final consumers.

The study can be used to analyze theeffect on economic activity of policyinstruments designed to limit green-house gas emissions. Statistics Canadaplans to update its study on a yearlybasis as part of a broader initiative tointegrate “satellite accounts” for envi-ronmental and natural resource datainto the SNA.


Understanding the relationships betweengreenhouse gas emissions and keyanthropogenic factors is necessary for Canada to assess progress in meeting its climate change objectives. This chapteridentifies the key anthropogenic determinants of emissions, discusses the development of climate changeindicators, provides examples of thekinds of indicators that can be used for assessment purposes, and looks athow emissions in 1990 reflect long-termtrends. These indicators will be an impor-tant tool for assessing Canada’s progressin limiting greenhouse gas emissions.

Key Determinants ofGreenhouse Gas Emissions

Five key factors interact to determinehow human production and consumptionactivities influence greenhouse gas

emissions. These factors, or determinants,are population, economic activity, energyintensity, greenhouse gas intensity (i.e., of energy and land use) and landuse. Figure 12.1 summarizes these relationships. The relative importance ofthese factors in influencing greenhousegas emissions varies over time and between countries.

Intensity is a measure of how much of a resource is used by individuals (on average) for every unit of economicoutput. Changes in intensity reflectchanges in the amount of a resourcebeing used for a given population orchanges in the level of economic activity.

Energy intensity provides a general indication of the amount of energy beingconsumed by a given population or levelof economic activity. For example, energyintensity decreases if energy consumptionfalls while population remains constant.(Conversely, if energy use remains constant while the economy continues to grow, then energy intensity decreases.)

The resulting level of greenhouse gasemissions largely depends on the extentto which carbon-based fossil fuels areused to meet energy requirements — in other words, the greenhouse gasintensity of energy use. Greenhouse gasintensity is similar to energy intensity in that it reflects the amount of green-house gas or carbon-based emissionsassociated with a given population or level of economic output. (In thiscase, the resource being “ consumed” is the Earth’s atmosphere.)

Emissions related to land use resultfrom activities such as the use of


Figure 12.1

Societal FactorsDeterminingGreenhouse GasEmission Changes

Population Size

Economic Activity

Energy Intensity

GHG Intensity

Land Use

GreenhouseGas

Emissions

Chapter 12



nitrogen-based fertilizers. Urban development and various forestry and agricultural practices leading to the loss of soil organic matter also contribute to land use emissions. The extent to which these activities are taking place within a given area isreflected in the greenhouse gas intensityof land use. (Many land use activities alsoinfluence the capacity and availability of sinks and reservoirs to remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere.)

Development of Climate Change Indicators

Monitoring key determinants of green-house gas emissions can lead to a betterunderstanding of emission trends and changes in these trends over time. A rigorous approach using what can be referred to as a set of climate change “indicators” is necessary toassess whether progress in modifyinglong-term emission trends is beingmade. The challenge is to develop indicators that reflect, in a meaningfulway, changes in the relationshipsbetween emissions and associated humanproduction and consumption activities.

Climate change indicators must provideinsight into the underlying social, economic and technological factors that influence emission trends. Their usefor assessment purposes will clearly be anevolving process that builds on existingdata sources and methodologies, andpromotes the development of new ones.

Initiatives currently under way in Canadaare aimed at developing environmentalindicators for measuring performance inareas related to the atmosphere, water,land, wildlife and natural resource assets.The broad framework that has definedthese activities is based on answeringtwo, key questions.

• What is happening to the state of the environment and our naturalresource assets?

• Why is it happening?

These questions address the conditionof the environment and the stressesimposed on it by human activities.Condition is measured by looking at the quantity or quality of an element of the environment or a natural resourceasset, including various exposures or responses of the environment to human activities. In the context of climate change, such measures may include air temperature, rainfall or drought patterns, and sea levels.

Stress is measured by looking at emissions,discharges, and the restructuring or consumption of environmental resources. In the climate change context, theseinclude the concentration of greenhousegases in the atmosphere, and emissionsof these gases from energy-related and non-energy-related sources.

These measures of stress for climatechange are regional or global in natureand are characterized by a limitedunderstanding of the relationshipsbetween the stresses and the threat-ened environmental asset. Emissionsinventories, compiled on a regular, periodic basis, are important indicatorsfor determining whether there is movement towards, or away from,Canada’s national stabilization goal.However, they provide limited insightinto the extent to which the necessarychanges in the fundamental relation-ships between emissions and humanproduction and consumption activitiesare taking place. This results in a thirdquestion to ask when developing indicators.

• Are the necessary changes beingmade to reduce the stresses placedon the environment?

A more complete understanding of the underlying socio-economic andtechnological factors will enable policymakers in Canada to more effectivelyassess progress towards meeting climatechange objectives. These factors can also be used to facilitate internationalcomparisons, to improve the under-standing of the nature and importanceof the various factors other countries face when setting national goals, and todevelop appropriate response strategies.


Climate change indicators will play an important role in the developmentof long-term, sustainable solutions byproviding policy makers with a bettermeans of integrating economic consid-erations into decisions regarding the environment. Being able to achieveCanada’s environmental goals dependson maintaining a healthy, thriving economy. A poor understanding of therelationships between environmentalstresses and associated economic activities can result in inappropriateresponses that jeopardize sustainabledevelopment. Climate change indicatorscan be used not only to improve under-standing of these relationships, but alsoto identify areas where there may beopportunities for action that will benefitboth the environment and the economy.

Indicators are needed for monitoringchanges over time, evaluating differencesacross jurisdictions and revealing the underlying factors that influenceemission trends. They should be:

• Meaningful — Indicators must clarify, for non-specialists in particu-lar, the often complex relationshipsbetween the environment and human activities.

• Credible — Indicators must be based on sound, transparentmethodologies, and reliable sources of data and other forms of information, as required.

• Flexible — Methodologies shouldaccommodate improvements in data.

• Comparable — Indicators must be based on the use of consistentand comparable methodologies and data to allow for meaningfulassessments over time and acrossjurisdictions.

• Comprehensive — Indicators shouldreflect the comprehensive approachto climate change, that is, addressall greenhouse gases, not just CO2.

The use of indicators for evaluating differences across jurisdictions must alsotake into account fundamental differ-ences in national or regional circum-stances, that is, size, geography, climate,

population, industrial structure and economic status, which are often beyonddirect and indirect policy influences. The data used for such comparisons must,therefore, be sufficiently disaggregated(on either a regional or sectoral basis).

Factors Influencing Energy Intensity

Since fossil fuel use is by far the singlelargest source of greenhouse gas emis-sions, energy intensity is a useful startingpoint for developing climate change indicators. The data required for energyintensity indicators are readily availableand often produced on a regular basis at national and regional levels for most countries, including Canada.

Climate change indicators based on energy intensity help identify the factors that influence the amount of energy being consumed for a givenpopulation or level of economic activity.Some of these factors — such as climate,geography and distance to markets —will change only in the very long termand, therefore, are beyond humaninfluence. The effects of a many social,economic and technological factors on energy intensity can be observed in the short and medium, as well as in the long term. These factors are generallywithin the sphere of human influence.Many change gradually over time, whileothers can fluctuate from year to year,masking long-term trends.

Changes in our climate are a reflection of changes in temperatures and precipi-tation which, while relatively stable overlong periods of time, can also fluctuatefrom year to year. These changes haveimplications for energy use. For example,in a winter characterized by tempera-tures that are below normal, heatingrequirements for homes and offices will be greater. The concept of heatingdegree days is a useful measure of variability in temperatures affectingheating requirements. The number of heating degree days in a year for a given location (i.e, a municipality) is calculated by multiplying the number


Chapter 12


of days the average daily temperaturewas below 18˚C by the number of degreesthe temperature fell below 18˚C. Heatingdegree days can, therefore, be used to help explain changes in energy use associated with changes in heatingrequirements.

Energy use and intensity are also a function of human behaviour. Choicesmade by individuals regarding the automobiles they buy and the homesthey live in, have long-term implicationsfor energy use. Many everyday decisionsinfluence energy use as well. Decisionsregarding whether to drive or take the bus, to turn up the heat or put on a sweater, to throw out more garbage or reuse/recycle all have implications for energy use. However, these kinds ofdecisions — and their impact on energyuse — are typically very short term innature and quite difficult to monitor.

Identifying changes in human behaviouris a complex exercise. There are many reasons that explain why people makecertain choices regarding how they liveand move around. The relative prices of goods and services play a key role in this respect. People also place a valueon other, less tangible factors, such as convenience and various social consid-erations (including the protection of theenvironment).

Urban transportation is a useful area for examining the kinds of indicatorsthat can be used to identify and explainchoices made by individuals in societythat affect energy use. It is possible, for example, to track changes in thekinds of automobiles purchased to see if commuters are seeking greater fuelefficiency. Another useful indicator of commuter choices that affect fuel use is the preference for differentmodes of transportation.

The primary mode of personal urbantransportation in Canada is the automobile. In 1980, 6.8 million commuters out of a total of 9.2 millionrelied on privately owned automobiles.Urban public transit use placed a distant second, followed closely by walking, bicycling, motorcycling, and using taxis.

A shift in transit modes is sensitive to the relative costs of the variousoptions available to commuters (e.g., the cost of owning and operating a private automobile compared to bus or subway fares). Commuters also place a value on the convenience offered by various transit modes. Public transitinfrastructure and settlement patternsare key factors in determining the extentto which alternative transit modes areused by commuters. For example, thedominance of automobiles in NorthAmerica is often attributed to the prevalence of low-density suburbandevelopments, where public transit services are generally far less convenient,and sometimes non-existent.

Statistics Canada collects information on a periodic basis on the extent to which commuters rely on private auto-mobiles, public transit, or other ways of moving from one place to another. It is generally recognized that publictransit systems are more efficient waysof commuting compared to privateautomobile use (i.e., less energy perpassenger-kilometre). An increase in public transit use can, therefore, be expected to lead to lower energy use and intensity, all other things being equal.

The difficulty in using this kind of indicator as a way of measuringprogress is that the underlying reasonsfor changes in transit modes are notalways clear. Are they because ofchanges in values or prices — both of which can just as easily be reversed— or because of changes to the urbaninfrastructure, which are likely to havelong-term effects on commuter choices?

It is possible to track changes to urbaninfrastructure that can, in turn, affectcommuter patterns. This can be done by collecting information on urban sizeand density. In large cities, public transitsystems are generally more highly developed and per capita ridership is much greater compared to smallerurban centres. Another way to trackinfrastructure changes is to calculate the ratio of new single-family dwellingsto multiple-family dwellings (e.g., apart-


ment buildings) being constructed eachyear. A larger proportion of detachedhomes would represent a greateremphasis on the development of low-density suburban centres. (This ratio can also help explain energy use patternsin the residential sector, since detachedhomes generally have higher energyrequirements than more compact forms of housing.)

This kind of information on urban development can provide useful insightinto the choices being made by individ-uals regarding transportation. It cannot,however, provide a clear, easily under-stood link between commuter choicesand energy intensity.

Future development of indicators relatedto the full range of energy-related socio-economic activities for purposes ofassessing Canada’s progress in achievingits climate change objectives will contin-ue, focusing on making links betweenhuman activities and climate change in a credible and transparent manner.

CO2 DECOMPOSITION

A more complete picture of the changestaking place within economies can beconstructed using a variety of indicators(including measures of energy and CO2intensity) to “decompose” the key fac-tors that influence aggregate trends in emissions. For example, energy-relatedCO2 emissions are influenced by:

• the carbon intensity of fossil fuel consumed;

• the fossil fuel intensity of total primary energy consumed;

• the degree and efficiency of energyconversion (for electricity);

• the energy intensity of the economy;

• the economic output per person; and

• population.

The level of energy-related CO2 emissionsis equivalent to the product of these variables, as shown in the followingequation.

CO2 =(CO2/FOSS) x (FOSS/TPE) x(TPE/TFC) x (TFC/GDP) x (GDP/POP) x POP

Where:

FOSS= fossil fuel energy (excluding biomass)

TPE = total primary energy (includingbiomass)

TFC = total final energy consumption,or secondary energy excludingconversion losses (associated par-ticularly with electric generation)

GDP = economic output, measured in terms of gross domestic product

POP = population

Note: when combined, CO2/FOSS andFOSS/TPE represent the energy “fuel mix”.

The first four factors can be viewed asenvironmental policy variables. In otherwords, governments can influence thesefactors to some degree through a rangeof policies and measures. For example, a reduction in the CO2/FOSS ratio (CO2intensity of fossil fuel use) can be achievedby promoting greater use of fossil fuelswith lower carbon content, that is, fuelsthat are less CO2-intensive. A reductionin the FOSS/TPE ratio (proportion of fossil-fuel-based energy to total primaryenergy) can be achieved by increasingthe share of energy supplied by non-carbon sources of energy, such as hydro or nuclear power.

The TPE/TFC ratio (primary to secondaryenergy) is a measure of the efficiency of the energy industry in converting and delivering energy supplies to thefinal consumer. An improvement in theoverall efficiency of electricity productionor a reduction in energy delivery losseswill result in a lower TPE/TFC ratio.

The TFC/GDP, or the secondary energyintensity ratio, reflects the amount of secondary energy consumed for agiven level of economic output. Energyintensity improvements can be achievedthrough greater energy efficiency and byreducing the level of energy-consumingproduction and consumption activities.


Chapter 12


There are two other important factorsthat help explain changes in energy-relat-ed CO2 emissions. The first is economicoutput per person (GDP/POP). Changes in per capita output will lead to changesin emissions if all other influencing factors remain constant. The same can be said for population (POP). An increasein population, influenced by fertility ratesand immigration policies, will lead to anincrease in emissions, all other factorsbeing constant.

Historical Greenhouse GasEmission Trends in Canada

A useful way to understand the role of the various socio-economic factorsunderlying greenhouse gas emissions is to examine Canada’s historical recordusing decomposition analysis. Figure12.2 shows changes in energy-relatedCO2 emissions and the contributing factors for three periods: 1960–80,1980–85 and 1985–90.

As Figure 12.2 shows, the 1960–80 periodwas characterized by rapid emissionsgrowth of approximately 4% per year,fuelled by strong per capita output andpopulation growth. During this period,there was a modest improvement in thefuel mix and a decrease in CO2 intensityin response to a shift from oil to hydroand nuclear power. Technologicalchange and improvements in productiontechniques resulted in moderateimprovements in energy intensity as well.

The 1980–85 period was marked by emissions declining at approximately 1% a year. Relative to the previous period, the growth in per capita outputand population was considerably lower.It was during this period that Canadiansresponded to higher energy prices andlarge-scale government conservationprograms by becoming more energyefficient, particularly in the residentialand transportation sectors, and byswitching from oil to natural gas forspace heating and industrial processes.There was also a continuing movementtowards nuclear power for meetingelectricity needs.

In the 1985–90 period, emissions grewonce again at approximately 1.5% peryear — a somewhat slower rate than had been observed in the 1960–80 period. Increases in per capita outputand population continued at the samerate as in the earlier five-year period.Energy intensity improvements duringthe 1985–90 period were, however, more


1960-1980

CO2

CO2 Intensity

Fossil Fuel

Conversion Losses

Energy Intensity

Output per capita

Population (POP)

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5% change per year

(CO2/FOSS)

Intensity (FOSS/TPE)

(TPE/TFC)

(TFC/GDP)

(GDP/POP)

1980-1985

CO2

CO2 Intensity

Fossil Fuel

Conversion Losses

Energy Intensity

Output per capita

Population (POP)

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3% change per year

(CO2/FOSS)


(TPE/TFC)

(TFC/GDP)

(GDP/POP)

1985-1990

CO2

CO2 Intensity

Fossil Fuel

Conversion Losses

Energy Intensity

Output per capita

Population (POP)

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3% change per year

(CO2/FOSS)


(TPE/TFC)

(TFC/GDP)

(GDP/POP)

Figure 12.2

CO2Decompositionfor 1960–1990


Canada

modest. This can be explained by the oil price collapse in 1986 and a reducedemphasis on energy conservation programs in both the public and private sectors.

While there has usually been a closecorrelation between economic outputand greenhouse gas emissions (exceptfor the early 1980s), energy consump-tion in Canada has been rising moreslowly since 1970 than economic output.The same can be said for energy-relatedCO2 emissions. Consequently, over the1970–90 period, there has been a steadydownward trend in energy and emissionsintensity as Canadians have improvedenergy efficiency and become morereliant on hydro-electricity and nuclearpower to meet their energy needs.More recently, the movement towardshydro and, particularly, nuclear powerhas slowed, as have improvements in energy and emissions intensity.

The experience during the early 1980sdemonstrates that there can be sudden,short-term shifts in emission trends andin the relationships between emissionsand the underlying factors. These shiftsmust be carefully examined and wellunderstood before coming to any con-clusions about whether real, sustainableprogress in limiting emissions is beingmade.

Putting 1990 Into Perspective

Since much attention is focused on 1990as a reference year for commitmentsmade under the Framework Conventionon Climate Change, it is important to put this year into perspective.

Figure 12.3 shows that CO2 emission levels have been up and down since the beginning of the 1980s. After twodecades of steady growth, emissionsbegan declining in 1980. By the mid-1980s, however, emissions were on therise again and reached a historical peakof 487 Mt in 1989. In 1990, CO2 emis-sions fell to 461 Mt, and in 1991, theyfell another 6 Mt. Preliminary estimatesshow that CO2 emissions were on the rise again in 1992.

It is not possible to make general conclu-sions about emission trends over the pastdecade. Shorter periods (3 to 5 years) areclearly more appropriate. Year-to-yearanalysis can also be revealing in terms of the kinds of factors that can have a noticeable, but short-term impact, onemission levels. For example, the primarycauses of the sudden decrease in emis-sions in 1990 from the previous year can be attributed to three key factors, all influencing energy consumption.

• Economic growth: In 1990, theCanadian economy experienced a downturn that had a direct impacton energy demand. Industrial output(real domestic product) declined3.3% from the previous year.

• Energy mix: Coal use for electricitygeneration decreased significantlydue to higher levels of water in reservoirs of hydro-electric generating stations.

• Temperature: 1990 was warmerthan normal. The number of heatingdegree days was 7% lower thannormal and about 10% lower than in 1989.

The principal conclusion that can bedrawn from this analysis is that theshort-term reversal in emission trendsthat began in 1990 was the result


Chapter 12

1960 1970 1980 1990100

200

300

400

500

600

megatonnes

Figure 12.3

CO2 Emissions1960-1990

Source:Statistics Canada, andNatural Resources Canada


of factors largely beyond the control of Canadians. As the economy climbsout of the recent recessionary period,emissions can be expected to rise onceagain, unless the relationships betweenemissions and human production andconsumption activities are altered. Onlythrough detailed analysis using the kindsof indicators discussed above can the extent to which these changes are taking place be made clear.

Conclusions

Canada is currently examining the needfor indicators that provide a more com-plete picture of the underlying changestaking place within the Canadian econ-omy that influence greenhouse gasemission trends. These indicators canhelp Canada assess its progress towardsachieving its climate change objectives.Climate change indicators can also play an important role in integratingeconomic and environmental decisionmaking, thereby promoting long-term,sustainable solutions.

Some well-defined climate change indi-cators are available for immediate use;others will require further development.A properly constructed framework,based on the criteria outlined above,can be used to highlight gaps andweaknesses in existing methodologiesand data sources.


The Framework Convention on ClimateChange requires that industrializedcountries provide to the Conference of the Parties detailed information on projected anthropogenic emissionsby sources of greenhouse gases andremoval by sinks, to the year 2000.Canada’s comprehensive approach to addressing global warming includesall greenhouse gas sources and sinksand uses global warming potentials(GWP) to aggregate effects. Eventually,Canada will prepare projections for allgreenhouse gas sources and sinks. In themeantime, this is Canada’s first attemptat a detailed outlook for greenhousegas emissions. As such, it is a snapshot in time of work being done to prepareprojections on all sources and sinks of greenhouse gas emissions. This work is at various stages of development andinvolves both data base developmentand modelling.

Overview

This national report includes estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. As noted earlier,energy production and consumptionaccount for 98% of Canada’s CO2, 32% of CH4 emissions and 52% of N2O emissions. In aggregate, these emissionsaccount for 88% of the three primarygreenhouse gases.

This emissions outlook is one of severaltools being used to assess progress. It represents a top-down approach to assessment, while the other tools use a bottom-up approach.

This chapter includes:• a discussion of the methodology

and models used to prepare theoutlook;

• the key assumptions on energyprices, economic growth, demo-graphic patterns and governmentpolicy that underlie the projections;

• a discussion of the energy demandoutlook by major sector and fuel(Estimates are provided for primaryand secondary demand.);

• a conversion of the energy use projections into fossil fuel greenhousegas emissions (Estimates are providedfor CO2, CH4 and N2O.); and

• a discussion of the sensitivity of the outlook to changes in the key determinants of energy demandand emissions.

Methodology and Models

The projections use the interfuel substi-tution demand (IFSD) model of NaturalResources Canada. IFSD is a large-scaleeconometric model that forecasts energy demand and fossil fuel emissionsby sector, region and fuel. As with othermodels of this type, the historical rela-tionships between energy consumptionand economic activity, demographicsand prices determine the forecast levelsof demand. These top-down estimatesare then supplemented and integratedwith estimates from bottom-up modelsthat forecast energy demand on a detailed sectoral and end-use basis.Bottom-up, or end-use, models arestructural and allow for variations


Chapter 13

Canada’s NationalEmissions Outlook


in technology over time. Electrical generation decisions are handled sepa-rately through a process-type model.Announced utility plans are a majorinput for this model; the generationfuel mix (hydro, nuclear or thermal)provides the key output.

Key Assumptions

The key determinants of energydemand over time are energy prices,economic growth, demographic trends,human behaviour, government energypolicies and related policies. Countriesthat anticipate faster economic anddemographic growth can expect fastergrowth in energy consumption andrelated emissions; countries that projectrapid real energy price increases cananticipate reduced energy usage and improvements in energy efficiency.Efficiency improvements can be eitherprice or policy induced. Policy-inducedchanges, such as mandatory standardsand building codes, can also have a profound impact on energy consumptionpatterns over time.

Energy Prices

Any assessment of energy demand and emissions necessitates an analysis of world oil prices. As shown in Table13.1, most forecasters anticipate onlymodest increases in oil prices over thenext 10 years. This outlook assumes thatworld oil prices will, on average, remainat US$21 to US$22 per barrel until 1995.Prices will then rise slowly to betweenUS$23 to US$24 per barrel in real termsby 2000 and remain relatively constantthereafter.

This assumption is based on several considerations. First, world oil demandis expected to grow about 1% per year.Continuing substitution of natural gas,efficiency improvements and environ-mental initiatives will act as constraintsfor oil demand. Second, assuming tech-nology continues to improve on thesupply side, there should be no majorreal cost increases for crude oil. Non-OPEC supply is expected to be fairly sta-ble over the forecast horizon. Declining

US production and, to a lesser extent,reduced exports from the former USSRwill be offset by oil production growthin non-OECD countries. Third, OPECcapacity is expected to show majorincreases in the next 10 to 15 years.Productive capacity (including Kuwaitand Iraq) should exceed 35 million barrelsper day (MMB/D) by 1995 and 40 MMB/Dby 2005.

As such, capacity should comfortablyexceed the demand for OPEC’s production of about 32 MMB/D in 2005.Natural gas prices in Canada are largelydetermined in North American markets.Prices are expected to escalate from current levels of approximately C$1.60per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), the pricefor the first six months of 1993, toC$2/Mcf in real terms by the year 2000.This reflects increased North Americandemand and declines in conventionalUS production. International coal priceshave fallen over the last few years forboth metallurgical and thermal coals,but they are expected to rebound andremain flat in real terms.

The international uranium market has suffered an oversupply since thelate 1970s, when inventories began to accumulate as a result of delays and cutbacks in reactor construction.The situation worsened recently withthe availability of low-priced uraniumfrom German uranium stockpiles andfrom new suppliers, especially Eastern


Table 13.1

Oil PriceProjections —

West TexasIntermediate

Crude at Cushing(1991 US dollars

per barrel)


Canada

1995 2000

Chevron 17–28 from 1990 to 2005

Royal Dutch Shell 20–25 from 1990 to 2005

PEL 20 21

PIRA 20.5 22.5

IEA 21 26

US DOE - REF. 20 23

CERI 22.5 23

NEB 22 24

Natural Resources Canada 21 23

1995 2000

European countries and China. In spite of increased demand and the emergenceof new suppliers, the availability of surplus inventories and the large worldwide resource base will keep long-run uranium prices flat in real terms.

Domestic electricity price increasesreflect utility announcements up to the end of 1994. Beyond 1994, electricityprices are assumed to increase only at the rate of inflation due to excesscapacity in most regions.

Macro-Economic and DemographicTrends

The economic and demographicassumptions underlying the energy and emission projections are based on the National and Regional ReferenceOutlook prepared by Informetrica inNovember/ December 1992. Canadianeconomic growth over the long termwill be driven chiefly by demographicsand US economic growth. Canada’spopulation is projected to grow at an average rate of 1.2% between 1991and 2000, largely due to immigration.The outlook assumes current immigra-tion levels of about 250 000 persons per year. The US economy is assumed to grow at 2.2% annually up to 2000.Based on these assumptions, theCanadian economy is projected to expand at an annual average rate of 2.2% between 1991 and 2000. Thisimplies that real GDP will be 25% higherby the year 2000. On the financialfront, monetary policy is expected to continue to ease, with interest rates

falling from 10.5% in 1991 to 6.5% in2000. The inflation rate, as measuredby the Consumer Price Index, is 2.8%over the forecast horizon. Furtherdetails on the macro-economic anddemographic projections are shown in Table 13.2.

In contrast to the experience of the1970s and 1980s, Informetrica projectshigher economic growth in the industrialsector relative to the service sector(approximately 3.2% and 2.2% respec-tively). This assumption is particularlyimportant to future projections of energy-related greenhouse gas emissionsbecause of the much greater energyintensity of the industrial sector.

Underlying this greater industrial-sectorgrowth is the view that Canada’s macro-economic future will be determined byexport performance. Improved exportswill stem from the increased competi-tiveness of Canadian industry which, in turn, will result in lower cost increasescompared to the United States andother producers. The improved competi-tiveness is one consequence of therestructuring of Canadian industries in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

It will also be stimulated by several policy developments, such as free tradeagreements and tax reform (e.g., theremoval of sales tax from exports underthe goods and services tax). Within theindustrial sector, pulp and paper, chemicalproducts, electrical equipment, andmetallic minerals and products are likelyto experience above-average growth.

On the other hand, commercial-sectorgrowth is expected to moderate. Thisoutlook is predicated on the fact thatnon-commercial services, such as educa-tion, public administration and healthcare, account for 40% of the output ofthis sector. With the possible exceptionof health care, the growth in these services will be considerably reduced as population growth slows and govern-ments retrench to address the deficitand debt problems. Non-business commercial services, such as restaurants,recreation and accommodation, are also related to population and are, consequently, expected to grow more


Chapter 13

Table 13.2

CanadianEconomicProspectsAverage AnnualGrowth Rates (%)


US GDP 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2

Real GDP 3.1 2.9 2.2 2.5

Industrial RDP 1.2 4.0 2.5 3.2

Services RDP 3.4 2.4 2.1 2.2

Inflation 7.1 2.7 2.9 2.8

Interest Rates 10.5 (1991) 7.0 (1995) 6.5 (2000)

Population 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2

1972–1991 1991–1995 1995–2000 1991–2000


slowly. By contrast, services to businessare expected to expand more or less inline with growth in the industrial sector.

It is important to recognize that this is but one potential path that theCanadian economy might take. Otherprojections show somewhat slower or faster economic growth, higher or lower inflation and more or lessunemployment. However, Informetrica’soutlook is reasonably close to that of other forecasting institutions. Thereare, however, significant differencesconcerning the split between goods andservices. For example, Data ResourcesInc. projects a higher annual growthrate for the service sector between 1990 and 2000 (approximately 3.2%)and a lower growth rate for the industrialsector (approximately 2.4%). The impactof a higher rate of growth in services is shown in the impact analysis section.

Policy Setting

The last key determinant of energydemand and related fossil fuel emissionsis government policy. As previouslynoted, these projections are based onthe assumption of “business as usual”.This implies that current policies affectingCanadian energy trends will remainunchanged over the projection period.However, it does allow for some specu-lative change in the policies of othergovernments, notably the United States.Obviously, it is desirable to restrict suchspeculation to those issues that are critical, and for which there is sufficientinformation to develop an informedjudgment. One such example concernsstandards for vehicle fuel efficiency.Given the integrated nature of theNorth American automobile market, the regulatory decisions of the US government will have a decisiveimpact on the efficiency of new vehicles sold in Canada.

Some aspects of current energy andrelated policy are relatively straightfor-ward. For example, it is assumed thatCanadian oil and natural gas prices andmarkets will remain deregulated. This is consistent with agreements reachedwith the provinces in the mid-1980s.

Similarly, the elements of the tax systemthat affect energy — corporate incometax, excise taxes on motive fuels, andthe goods and service tax — are assumed to remain in place.

However, there are several recent policy initiatives, particularly in theenvironmental area, that require somejudgment concerning their inclusion in the “business as usual” assumption.These include Canada’s climate changecommitments and such initiatives as the Canada–US Air Quality Agreement.The common process these initiativesshare is for the government to announcetargets for emission levels, to be achievedat some point in the future, and then to follow up, as appropriate, with legislation, regulations and programs toattain the objective. The process for devel-oping such targets, legislation, regulationsand programs is typically quite protractedand involves lengthy consultation andnegotiations with provincial governmentsand stakeholder groups.

If the process of giving an initiative itslegislative or regulatory expression hadadvanced to the point that an informedpublic observer could discern the direc-tion and implications of the policy, it wasincluded in the study. Consequently, theCanada–US Air Quality Agreement wasincluded. Judgements were also madeconcerning initiatives contained withinfederal and provincial energy efficiencyand alternative energy programs, such as energy efficiency standards for equip-ment likely to be put into legislation over the forecast period. Negotiationsconcerning these standards are ongoing,and their final form may be differentthan has been assumed in this outlook.

ENERGY DEMAND OUTLOOK

This section provides energy demandestimates for secondary demand by sector, non-energy use, energy suppliers’own use and intermediate energy needsto convert one form of energy intoanother (e.g., coal used to generateelectricity).


Residential Sector

The residential sector accounts for 20%of total secondary demand. Major energyend uses include space and water heat-ing, appliances, lighting and space cool-ing. As depicted in Figure 13.1, space andwater heating account for the majority of residential energy consumption.

Table 13.3 summarizes the residentialenergy demand forecast and underlyingfactors. Energy intensity, as measuredby energy demand divided by totalhouseholds, is projected to fall by an average of 1.1% each year. This corresponds closely to intensity changesexperienced over the last 10 years.Increasing real energy prices, and theenergy efficiency initiatives of federaland provincial/territorial governmentsand utilities are the main contributorsto the decline in energy intensity overthe projection period.

The demand projection for the residen-tial sector is based on economic anddemographic factors, and on specificmeasures related to the thermal shell of the housing stock, space heating systems, water heaters and appliances.The introduction of these measuresreflects policy decisions resulting fromfederal and provincial/territorial energyefficiency and alternative energy programs, as well as from extensions of probable trends in these areas. The residential projections incorporatemeasures in the following key areas.

• Improvement of the thermal efficiencies of post-1994 new housing.Up to 2005, the average annual heatload is roughly 12% lower thanresults from the 1983 standards.

• Beginning in 1994, the minimumannual fuel utilization efficiencystandards for furnaces will beincreased to the US standards.

• Beginning in 1994, the Ontario standard for water heaters is assumedas a proxy for the national standard.

• The US 1993 and 1994 standards areintroduced as a national standard for all appliances from 1994, andnew standards, including the mostup-to-date economic technology,will begin in 1999.

• Beginning in 1994, the standard for space cooling systems is set to the Ontario standard.

• Some of the information/suasioncomponents of electrical utilitydemand-side management (DSM)and energy management programsare incorporated in the projection.It should be noted that one cannotdisentangle the impact of DSM programs from the federal andprovincial/territorial programs, giventheir similar means and objectives.

• Between 1990 and 2000, variousfederal and provincial/territorialmeasures will result in aggregate


Chapter 13

Figure 13.1

ResidentialEnergy Demand,1991

Source:Statistics Canada,

Electricity (37%)

Natural Gas (42%)

Refined Petroleum Products (RPP’s) (13%) Renewables (8%)

Fuel End-Use

Water Heating (17Light & Appliances (16%)

Space Heating (66%)

Space Cooling (1%)

1348 Petajoules


energy intensity improvements of 31% for space heating (Ontario),44% for refrigerators, 43% for freezers and 11% for electric waterheating. These intensity improve-ments are based on assumptionsmade regarding future standards and market penetration rates.

Figure 13.2 summarizes the residentialenergy demand projection by fuel, from 1991 to 2000. The only noticeablechanges in fuel market shares occur fornatural gas. Relative prices favour theuse of this fuel over the forecast period.The market share for electricity remainsflat, while oil’s share drops as naturalgas continues to displace oil in spaceheating applications. Since relative fuelprices remain stableover the forecasthorizon, no dramaticchanges in fuelswitching are fore-seen.

Commercial Sector

The commercial sector includes a diverse group of service industries and institutions, suchas office buildings,retail establishments,hotels and motels,restaurants, ware-houses, recreationalbuildings, schools,hospitals, and otherinstitutional and ser-vice industries. Thecommercial sectoraccounts for about15% of total sec-ondary demand. Thelargest energy usersin the sector areoffice buildings and educational facilities, whichaccount for 23% and 19% respectively.Retail stores andwarehouses eachaccount for 16% of energy demand.

Space heating is the largest componentof commercial energy use, accountingfor more than half of the total. In comparison, lighting, ventilation andequipment account for 14%, 11% and8% respectively. Space cooling accounts for the lowest levels of energy use in the commercial sector (see Figure 13.3).

Commercial real domestic product (RDP)growth, real energy prices (see Table13.4) and structural changes within the sector influence commercial energydemand. Such changes include a declinein the number of office buildings andan increase in health services. In addi-tion, government and utility programsare also expected to promote energyconservation. These factors will result


Table 13.3

ResidentialEnergy Demand

— AverageAnnual Growth

Rates (%)


Canada

Total Demand1 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6

Key Determinants:

Households 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.7

Household Income 0.3 -0.4 -0.0 -0.2

Real Energy Prices 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5

Energy Intensity2 -0.9 -1.3 -0.9 -1.1

1 Adjusted for weather fluctuations2 Energy demand per household

1981–1991 1991–1995 1995–2000 1991–2000

Figure 13.2

ResidentialEnergy Demand

by Fuel,1991–2000

Source:Statistics Canada, Natural

Resources Canada

1991 1995 20000

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600 1,348.3 1,414 1,441PJ

Electricity Natural Gas RPP’s Renewables

37%

42%

13%

8%

37%

43%

13%

7%

37%

44%

12%

7%

in a 1.2% average annual increase incommercial energy demand over theprojection period.

Energy intensity in the commercial sectoris projected to decline annually by 0.9%from 1991 to 2000. This is substantiallylower than the 2.1% yearly declineexperienced over the 1981 to 1991 period.Three factors are responsible for thisslower rate of decline in energy intensity:

• the slower turnover in capital stock;

• the slower rate of substitution ofmore efficient fuels (most of thissubstitution took place during thelast decade, when there was a significant switch away from oil); and

• a continued increase in the use ofenergy-intensive equipment in areassuch as computing and communica-tions.

Although the expected decline in energyintensity is lower than historical levels,it is significant, given the projection of modest energy price increases overthe forecast period. The decline is also explained by the introduction of government and utility programs:

• federal building energy efficiencyinitiatives;

• federal and provincial buildingcodes (starting in 1995); and

• energy efficiency standards forequipment (beginning in 1995).

Energy price increases in conjunction with the above programs are expected to result in improvements in total com-mercial energy intensity levels of 14% for space heating, 7% for lighting and7% for motors, between 1990 and 2000.

As highlighted in Figure 13.4, the marketshare for natural gas is expected toincrease slightly over the forecast period,as relative energy prices favour the use of this fuel. In contrast, electricity’s fuelmarket share is expected to decline from43% in 1991 to 41% in 2000, reflecting its high cost. The share of oil is expectedto remain relatively stable.

Industrial Sector

As the largest energy-consuming sector,the industrial sector accounts for justunder 40% of total secondary demand.The sector includes the manufacturing,mining, construction and forestry indus-tries. Four energy-intensive industries —pulp and paper, iron and steel, smeltingand refining, and chemical industries —account for about 60% of the energyrequirements of this sector (see figure13.5). In contrast, their share in industrialproduction, as measured by RDP, is approx-imately 15%. Accordingly, changes in thecomposition of industrial productionshould be considered together with overallindustrial RDP growth when projectingindustrial energy demand (see Table 13.5).

Energy intensity is expected to declinesignificantly by 1.1% annually over the


Chapter 13

lectricit (43%)

Gaz naturel (44%)

Produits p troliersrafinn s (PPR)et autres (13%)

Combustible Utilisation finale

Chauffage de l e

clairage (14%)

Chauffage des lo

Climatisation (6%)

Ventilation (11%)

quipement (8%)

950 petajoules

Figure 13.3

CommercialEnergy Demandby Fuel, 1991

Source: Natural ResourcesCanada


1991 to 2000 period. Despite these effi-ciency gains, energy demand is projectedto increase 2% a year over the forecastperiod. By historical standards, this energydemand growth is relatively high. For themost part, this is explained by the macro-economic scenario that calls for sharpincreases in industrial production. Thisintensity projection for the industrialsector compares favourably with the latest forecasts from the National EnergyBoard and the Energy InformationAdministration of the US Department of Energy.

As highlighted in Table 13.6, energyintensity projections differ considerablyamong industries. The differences arepartially explained by movements inenergy prices relative to other factorinput prices. Key factors affecting energyintensity are described below.

• In the new era of increased interna-tional competitiveness and greaterappreciation of environmental con-cerns, energyefficiency isexpected to be aprominent factorin producers’future invest-ment plans.

• The RDP growthrates in Table13.6 imply thatall industries,except mining,will double theiroutput over theforecast period.Significant addi-tions in new pro-ductive capacitywill be required,implying a highrate of capitalstock turnover.Typically, newequipment provides a majoropportunity tointroduce moreefficient processes.

• Environmentalconcerns and reg-

ulations will result in the increaseduse of metal and paper recycling,which is less energy intensive thanusing virgin materials (e.g., paper asopposed to wood).

• Energy efficiency gains in the miningsector stemming from new efficientmachinery and equipment will be off-set by declining ore grades (i.e., morecapital is required per unit of output).

• Various federal and provincial pro-grams will be developed. This willinclude industry-sponsored initiativesto improve energy efficiency, support-ed by the National Advisory Councilon Industrial Energy Efficiency, andprograms to encourage the develop-ment and adoption of technologiesthat are highly energy efficient.

As a result of stable relative fuel prices,fuel market shares remain almost constant over the forecast horizon (see Figure 13.6). The slight price advan-


Table 13.4

CommercialEnergy Demand


Rates (%)


Canada

Total Demand1 0.7 0.8 2.0 1.2

Key Determinants:

Commercial RDP 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.2

Real Energy

Prices 0.8 2.0 0.1 0.9

Energy

Intensity2 -2.1 -1.7 -0.2 -0.9

1Adjusted for weather fluctuations 2 Energy demand per commercial RDP

1981–1991 1991–1995 1995–2000 1991–2000

Figure 13.4

CommercialEnergy Demand,

1991–2000


Canada

1991 1995 2000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

950 9931,085

PJ

Electricity Natural Gas RPP’s

43%

44%

13%

42%

44%

14%

41%

45%

14%

Table 13.5

Industrial Energy Demand

– Average AnnualGrowth Rate (%)


tage favouring natural gas use is offsetby the increased penetration of newerprocesses and technologies based onelectricity. In effect, industry will useelectricity for precision processes butsubstitute gas for traditional uses (i.e., heating factories).

Transportation Sector

The transportation sector relies on motor gasoline for automobiles,diesel fuel oil for trucks and trains,turbo fuel and aviation gasoline for aircraft, and heavy fuel oil for ships.

As shown in Figure 13.7, total energyconsumption for transportation was1737 petajoules (PJ) in 1991, of whichapproximately 81% was used on theroad. Air, marine and rail accounted for 8%, 6% and 5% respectively.

Road Energy Demand for Gasoline and Diesel

Road energy demand is the product ofthe stock of vehicles, the average fuelefficiency of the vehicle stock and the

average distance travelled per vehicle.

Over the forecast period, car stock is projected to increase modestly at 1.5%annually. Low interest rates, stable fuelprices and slow growth in householdsand personal disposable income allaffect the growth in car stock. The fuelefficiency of new automobiles sold in Canada is perhaps the most criticalassumption underlying the projection of road transport demand. Given theintegrated nature of the North Americanautomobile market, it is necessary to make assumptions regarding trendsin US new-car on-road fuel efficiencies(see Table 13.7). Consequently, it isassumed that the United States willintroduce a 3% per year improvementin new-vehicle fuel efficiency between1996 and 2000 under its CorporateAverage Fuel Economy (CAFE) Programand that a concomitant voluntary program will be implemented in Canada.This improvement is about one half that achieved under the 1978—85 CAFE Program.

The distance travelled per car is expected to grow at 0.4%annually over theforecast period. Thisis considerably belowhistorical growthrates that prevailedin the 1980s andreflects the expecta-tion of lower incomegrowth; reducedgrowth in the num-ber of licenseddrivers; a decline in the ratio of high-mileage, young drivers to those ofretirement age; andgovernment pro-grams to encourageride sharing andincreased use of mass transit.

Over the forecastperiod, the stocks of trucks are alsoprojected to increasemodestly, at average


Chapter 13

Table 13.6

Energy Demandby MajorIndustries — AverageAnnual GrowthRate, 1991–2000


Pulp & Paper 0.5 -2.2 2.8

Chemicals 2.6 -1.5 4.2

Iron & Steel 2.5 -0.9 3.4

Smelting & Refining 3.3 -0.2 3.5

Other Manufacturing 1.9 -2.0 3.9

Mining 0.3 -1.3 1.5

Forestry & Construction 1.3 -1.6 2.9

Total Industrial 2.1 -1.1 3.2

Demand Intensity RDP

Total Demand 0.8 1.9 2.2 2.1

Key Determinants:

Industry RDP 1.5 4.0 2.5 3.2

Real EnergyPrices 1.0 2.3 1.3 1.7

EnergyIntensity -0.7 -2.1 -0.3 -1.1

1981–1991 1991–1995 1995–2000 1991–2000


annual rates of 2.6% for gasoline and1.4% for diesel trucks. This is based on anoutlook with modest economic growthand stable prices for motor gasoline anddiesel. But trends in fuel efficiency andaverage distance travelled are expectedto differ from passenger cars. Truck fuelefficiency is expected to improve at aslower rate than cars, 0.3% annually forgasoline trucks and 0.5% per year for theheavier diesel trucks. The average distance travelled for gasolinetrucks is expected to grow at a rate similar to cars, while virtually no growthis expected for diesel trucks.

Road Energy Demand for Alternative Fuels

In response to security of supply andenvironmental concerns, over the pastdecade governments and utilities havebeen researching and demonstratingalternative transportation fuels, andproviding incentives to encourage theuse of these fuels. Despite these efforts,alternative fuel use for transportation is still limited to the high-mileage fleetmarket. This trend is expected to continue,and consequently, alternative fuels’share of total transportation is expectedto increase from 2% in 1991 to 3% in 2000 (see Table 13.8).

The major drawbacks limiting the pene-tration of natural gas into the car marketare the extra weight of fuel storagecylinders, the reduction of trunk space

due to the size of the cylinders and thehigh cost of the compressors at refuellingstations. Without a major breakthroughin the cost and performance of electricvehicles, the use of electricity will notbecome much more attractive than it is today. However, the use of electricvehicles in Canada will be influenced by research and development efforts in the United States. These efforts willintensify as California’s 1998 deadlineapproaches for manufacturers to beginselling a small percentage of zero emis-sion vehicles. The demand for ethanolwill increase to satisfy oxygenate blend-ing in gasoline. Given these trends, roadtransportation energy demand is pro-jected to increase at an average annualrate of 1.6%. Motor gasoline demand is projected to increase at 1.6% annually,while diesel demand increases at 1.1%.

Other Transportation Modes

As shown in Table 13.9, the demand for aviation fuels is expected to grow by 3.4% over the forecast period,notwithstanding some improvement in aircraft efficiency. This trend reflectsa stable real price for turbo fuel and a strong demand for air travel. Aircraftfuel efficiency is expected to improve atan average annual rate of 1.5% duringthe 1990s as new aircraft are put intoservice and older, less-fuel-efficient aircraft are retired. The strong projecteddemand for air travel is partially attributedto the increase in leisure travel by the


Electricity (28%)

Natural Gas (36%)

RPP’s (12%)

Renewables (16%)

Fuel Industry Mix

Pulp and Paper (31

Others (30%)

Chemical (10%)Others (8%)Iron & Steel (10%)

Smelt. & Ref. (8%)

Mining (11%)

2396 Petajoules

Figure 13.5

Industrial EnergyDemand, 1991

Source: Statistics Canada, Natural

Resources Canada

elderly segment of the population, andthe increased access to foreign markets as a result of lower trade barriers forCanadian exports. Rail and marine energydemands (see Table 13.9) are projected to increase annually by 3.4% and 0.6%respectively over the next decade. Energydemand in these sectors reflects relativelyfast growth in the industrial sector, stablefuel prices and little potential for furtherimprovements in energy efficiency.

Summary of Transportation Demand

Transportation energy demand is pro-jected to increase about 13% over the 1991 to 2000 period, representingan average annual growth rate of 1.3%.Figure 13.8 illustrates the slight changein fuel composition in the transportationsector during this period. The marketshare of motor gasoline is expected tofall, chiefly as a result of increased use of alternative fuels for road transport.

A minor shift in modal shares will

accompany this fuel shift. While rail and marine remain stable throughoutthe years, air increases its share from 8%to 9% at the expense of the road sector.

Total Secondary Energy Demand

Total secondary demand (the sum ofenergy use in the residential, commercial,industrial and transportation sectors) willbe 16% higher in 2000 than in 1991.

The industrial sector will experience thestrongest demand growth, and the resi-dential sector the weakest. Accordingly,the industrial sector’s share in total sec-ondary demand is projected to increasefrom 37% in 1991 to 38% in 2000, whilethe share for the residential sector dropsfrom 22% to 21% over the same period.The shares for both the commercial andtransportation sectors remain relativelystable.

As depicted in Figure 13.9, market sharesfor major fuels are projected to remainrelatively constant over the forecast peri-

od. This implies simi-lar demand growthfor all major fuels.The historicalone-to-one growthrelationship betweenthe economy andelectricity demand is not expected tocontinue (i.e., 2.5%average annual eco-nomic growth from1991 to 2000 asopposed to 1.4%average annualgrowth in electricitydemand). The twomajor factors damp-ening electricitydemand growth arethe projected highcost of electricity rel-ative to natural gasand demand-sidemanagement (DSM)undertaken by utilitycompanies.


Chapter 13

Figure 13.6

Industrial EnergyDemand by Fuel,1991–2000 (%)

Source:Statistics Canada, NaturalResources Canada

1991 1995 20000

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2,396 2,5812,877

PJ

Electricity Natural Gas RPP’sRenewables Others

28%

36%

12%

8%

28%

37%

11%

9%

28%

37%

11%

9%

16% 15%

15%

Table 13.7

New-Car Fuel Efficiency(L/100K)

Source: Natural ResourcesCanada

CANADA

Natural Resources Canada 9.7 8.4NEB 9.8 8.9DRI 10.2 9.1

UNITED STATES

DOE (low price) 9.7 9.9DOE (reference) 9.7 9.0

1990 2000


Energy intensity, defined as the ratio ofsecondary energy consumption to grossdomestic product, is projected to declineby an annual rate of 1% between 1991and 2000. This decline in energy intensityis considerably lower than that experi-enced in the 1980s (a yearly decrease of1.8% occurred between 1981 and 1991).The smaller intensity decline is mainlyattributable to two factors.

• More rapid growth in the industrialsector relative to the commercial sec-tor, which is less energy intensive. Inthe 1970s and 1980s, growth in ser-vice-producing industries outpacedgrowth in goods-producing industries.

• Energy prices are projected toincrease modestly over the forecastperiod. In the 1970s and 1980s energyprices rose sharply.

Total Primary Energy Demand

Combining the secondary fuel demandsof the previous section with non-energyuse (largely petrochemicals), energy useby the industry itself (e.g., pipeline fuel)and fuels used to generate electricityresults in primary energy demand.Primary demand represents the totalrequirements for allusers of energy inCanada, includingenergy use by finalconsumers, interme-diate uses of energyin transforming oneform of energy intoanother and energyuse by energy sup-pliers.

Non-Energy Use

In 1991, non-energyuse accounted for9% of total end-usedemand (secondarydemand plus non-energy use), withpetrochemical feed-stocks and asphaltrepresenting about70% and 20% oftotal non-energyuse, respectively.

Petrochemicals are used to manufacturefertilizers, plastics, cosmetics, textilesand forest products. Because of theirlink with so many other sectors, petro-chemicals are closely tied to overallgrowth prospects for the economy.Non-energy use is projected to increaseat an annual rate of 3.8% between1991 and 2000.

Use by the Energy Supply Industry

The energy supply industry consumesenergy itself. This includes fuels used by pipelines and refineries, and trans-mission and distribution losses. In 1991,energy use in this sector accounted for 6% of total primary demand.

Energy use by the energy supply industrydepends on domestic and exportdemands for energy. Energy use for natural gas is expected to grow thefastest, since natural gas exports are expected to increase substantially.Moreover, total energy requirements by the energy industry are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.3% between 1991 and 2000.


Table 13.9

TransportationEnergy Demand


Rates (%)

Source: Natural Resources

Canada

Table 13.8

AlternativeTransportation

Fuels — Percent of

Road TransportDemand


Canada

Natural Gas 0.30 0.39 0.55

Propane 1.61 1.63 1.89

Methanol 0.00 0.01 0.12

Electricity 0.00 0.00 0.00

Ethanol 0.04 0.18 0.46

Total 2.00 2.21 3.02

1991 1995 2000

Road -0.1 0.3 1.6 1.0

Air -0.1 5.0 2.1 3.4

Rail -1.0 3.8 3.0 3.4

Marine -2.5 0.6 0.5 0.6

Total -0.3 0.8 1.7 1.3

Mode 1981/91 1991/95 1995/2000 1991/2000

Electricity Generation

The final component of primary energydemand relates to the fuels used to generate secondary electricitydemands. Because of the 1991 recessionand the current outlook for slower economic growth, electricity demand is projected to increase at an averageannual rate of 1.4% — almost half of the growth experienced during the1980s. As a result, the electric powerindustry has significant surplus capacityin all regions of Canada. This excesscapacity was planned and built duringthe periods of high growth in the 1970sand 1980s. Decreases in electricitydemand growth, in combination withDSM programs by utilities, are expectedto result in excess capacity in mostprovinces well beyond the year 2000.

In 1991, hydro accounted for 62% of total electricity generation inCanada, nuclear 16%, coal 17%, and oil and natural gas 2%. By 2000, hydrois still expected to be the major fueltype, although coal will continue to be a major source in some provinces.Provincial analysis indicates that mostutilities, including Ontario Hydro, NewBrunswick Power, Alberta InterconnectedSystem and BC Hydro, will defer addi-tional generation capacity until after2000. Utility purchases from non-utilitygeneration and independent power producers are projected to increase moderately by the year 2000.

Total primary energy demand is projectedto increase at an annual rate of 1.8%between 1991 and 2000. This correspondsclosely to the projected growth for sec-ondary demand. As depicted in Figure13.10, the market share of oil in total pri-mary demand will continue to decline,albeit at a much lower rate than in thepast because of the limited potential forfurther substitution and slower progressin efficiency improvements, particularly inthe transportation sector.

Natural gas consumption is expected to increase annually by 2.5% during the 1990s. This reflects strong demand by the industrial sector and by utilities.Accordingly, the share of natural gas intotal primary demand rises from 27% in1991 to 30% in 2000. The shares of hydroand coal are expected to drop from 11%and 12% respectively, to 10% and 9% in2000, due to competition from naturalgas in the non-utility generation market.The share for nuclear energy is projectedto increase from 10% in 1990 to 12% in2000, reflecting the completion ofOntario Hydro’s Darlington project.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Outlook

Given the dominant linkage betweenfossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions, converting a forecast of totalprimary energy demand into a forecast


Chapter 13

Aviation Fuels 8%

Gasoline 62%

Diesel 24%HFO 4%

Fuel Mode

Road 81%

Air 8%Other 2%Rail 5%

Marine 6%

1737 Petajoules

Figure 13.7

TransportationEnergy Demand,1991

Source:Statistics Canada


of total fossil-fuel-related emissions is a relatively straightforward exercise.Natural Resources Canada andEnvironment Canada have developed aset of conversion factors for convertingenergy demand into projected atmos-pheric emissions. The emission factorsfor CO2 are summarized in Table 13.10.

Wide ranges in conversion factors for petroleum products, coal and woodreflect the significant variations inemissions between different end usesand products. For example, diesel produces more CO2 per petajoule thananthracite coal. Unlike CO2, estimatedemission factors for CH4 and N2O aretechnology dependent. Emission factorsby fuel and type, for the other gases,can be found inCanada’s GreenhouseGas Emissions:Estimates for 1990,an EnvironmentCanada publication.

CH4 and N2O havemuch lower energycontributions thanCO2. While anthro-pogenic CO2 emis-sions result largelyfrom fuel combus-tion, emissions ofCH4 and N2O resultfrom a variety ofsources. For example,CH4 emissions comemainly from threesources: cattle, landfills, and theupstream oil and gasindustry. Coal miningalso contributesabout 5% of thetotal, but emissionsfrom fuel combustionare very small. Majorsources of N2O, otherthan fuel combustion,include chemicalprocesses and fertilizer use. Gasesother than CO2, CH4and N2O have indi-rect effects throughtheir influence on

tropospheric ozone, but are not includedin this outlook.

Table 13.11 gives projections by NaturalResources Canada for energy-relatedemissions of the three direct greenhousegases. (Also included are CO2 emissionsfrom cement production.) In 1990, emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O wereequivalent to 486.4 Mt of CO2. In theyear 2000, emissions are equivalent to 538.2 Mt, or 51.8 Mt higher than the 1990 level.

The emissions figures are given in CO2 equivalents based on the 100-yearglobal warming potentials developed bythe Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange. The CH4 and N2O numbers have


1991 1995 20000

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

3,200

1,742 1,802 1,962

PJ

Motor gasoline Diesel Aviation fuelsOthers

62%

24%

8%

61%

25%

8%6%

60%

25%

9%6% 6%

1991 1995 20000

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,0006,550 6,917

7,500PJ

RPP’s Natural Gas ElectricityRenewable Others

37%

29%

24%

7%

3%

36%

30%

24%

7%

3%

36%

30%

24%

7%3%

Figure 13.8

TransportationEnergy Demand,

1991–2000


Resources Canada

Figure 13.9

SecondaryEnergy Demand

by Fuel,1991–2000


Resources Canada

a greater range of uncertainty than dothose for CO2. The projections for CH4and N2O assume constant conversionfactors throughout the forecast. Figure 13.11 summarizes CO2 emissionsprojections by sector.

Impact of Federal Energy Efficiencyand Alternative Energy Initiatives, and Related Provincial Initiatives

The greenhouse gas emissions outlookincorporates the effects of a number offederal and provincial policies, programsand measures currently in place or in theprocess of implementation. Among these

is the Government of Canada’s Efficiencyand Alternative Energy Initiative (EAE).This initiative and associated provincialinitiatives are geared towards improvingenergy efficiency across a broad spectrumof end uses, from consumer products, to buildings, transportation and industry.They also promote the use of energysources that are less carbon intensive.

As shown on Table 13.12, it is estimatedthat the federal EAE program and associated provincial initiatives will leadto energy savings of over 190 petajoulesin the year 2000. It is estimated that theseenergy savings will lead to a 14 Mt reduc-tion in CO2 emissions. From 1992 to 2000,

it is estimated thatthere will be cumulative energysavings of close to 980 petajoules.

A large part of theestimated energysavings identified inTable 13.12 are theresult of the pene-tration of technolo-gies that are moreenergy efficient(e.g., more efficientfurnaces) than wouldhave been the casein the absence ofefficiency and alternative energyinitiatives. As such,these savings are of a more permanentnature than savingsgenerated throughincreased energyconservation prac-tices (e.g., turningdown thermostats).Since many of theseinitiatives focus onimproving the economy’s capitalstock, their effects on energy and CO2emissions can beexpected to increaseover time.


Chapter 13

34 %

27 %

12 %10 %

6 %11 %

33 %

29 %

9 %

13 %

6 %10 %

33 %

30 %

9 %

12 %

6 %10 %

1991 1995 20000

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

9,108 9,78710,666

PJ

RPP’S Natural Gas CoalNuclear Hydro Renewables

Figure 13.10

Primary EnergyDemand by Fuel,1991—2000

Source:Statistics Canada, NaturalResources Canada

Table 13.10

Fuel EmissionFactors for CO2

Source: Environment Canada,December 1992

Table 13.11

Energy-RelatedEmissions Estimates (in CO2 equivalents,with CH4 globalwarming potentialGWP-11 and N2OGWP-270)

1) Includes CO2 emissionsfrom cement production


Hydro and Nuclear 0.0

Natural Gas 49.7

Refined Petroleum Products 59.8–100.0

Coal 81.6–95.0

Tonnes per Terajoule

GHGs: (Megatonnes)

CO21 461.2 462.6 510.0

CH4 12.5 13.8 14.2N2O 12.7 13.0 14.0

Total 486.4 489.4 538.21Includes CO2 emissions from cement production

1990 1995 2000


Impact Analysis

The outlook contained in this report is but one of many plausible views of the future. Changes in any one of the key underlying assumptions will leadto different outcomes for both energydemand and related atmospheric emis-sions. Below are a number of differentscenarios involving changes to some ofthe key determinants that would have a dramatic impact on the outlook results.

• A world oil price US$5/bbl. higherthan the reference case, starting in 1994;

• The opposite assumption, withworld oil prices US$5/bbl. lower;

• Economic growth that is 1% higheror lower, beginning in 1993; and

• A scenario in which the historicaltrend between growth in the servicesector and growth in the goods-producing sector is maintained.

The impact on both secondary energydemand and CO2 emissions under thevarious cases is shown in Table 13.13. This analysis shows that, for example, a US$5 decrease in world oil prices wouldincrease the CO2 emissions “gap” byabout 30% in the year 2000. A continua-tion of historical growth trends in thegoods and services sectors would reducethe gap by about 30%. And increasing or decreasing economic output by 1% would enlarge or reduce the gap by roughly 60% by the year 2000.


Figure 13.11

CO2 Emissions bySector,

1990–2000


Canada

Table 13.12

Impact of FederalEnergy Efficiency

and AlternativeEnergy Initiatives,

and RelatedProvincialInitiatives


Canada

1 Estimating the Impact of Energy Efficiency Initiatives forCanada’s Energy Outlook, Efficiency and Alternative EnergyBranch, Natural Resources Canada.

2 Assumes that all savings in electricity will displace themarginal fuel used for intermediate electricity generationin provinces/territories where electricity is being saved.

Residential 65 256 3.5 4.7Commercial 27 164 1.7 2.0Industrial 48 225 1.7 3.7Transport 51 331 6.2 3.5

Total 191 976 13.1 13.9

Sector Energy Savings1 Cumulative Energy Cumulative Value Reductions in in 2000 Savings of Energy Savings CO2 Emissions

(Petajoules) 1992–2000 1992–2000 in 20002(Petajoules) ($Billions Current) (Megatonnes)

0

40

80

160

120

megatonnes

ResidentialCommercialIndustrialTransportationNon- energy

ProducerConsumption

IndustrialProcesses

ConversioRequiremen

1990 2000

13.5 Summary

There are several important factors that must be taken into account whenexamining the outlook results. First, this outlook only projects energy-relatedemissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O. This means that 12% of Canada’s current greenhouse gas emissions are not included. (Work has been initiatedrecently by the federal government to enable Canada to forecast emissionsfrom non-energy sources.) Also notincluded is the removal of greenhousegases from the atmosphere through theprotection and enhancement of sinks.This outlook, therefore, does not providea complete projection of Canada’s netgreenhouse gas emissions.

Second, greenhouse gas emission projections are very sensitive to changesin the underlying macro-economicassumptions, such as energy prices, the structure of the economy and economic growth.

Third, this outlook incorporates only federal and provincial/territorial energyand environmental policies that are cur-rently in place or close to implementa-tion. In other words, no assumptionshave been made about future changes inthese actions or additional ones that may be undertaken. In some instances,however, assumptions have to be madeabout the extent to which certain initiatives are implemented by variousjurisdictions.

Based on certain key assumptions andthe continuation of existing policies, programs and measures, the outlookshows that energy-related greenhousegas emissions will be equivalent to about538.2 Mt of CO2 in the year 2000. Thismeans that emissions in 2000 will be 51.8Mt, or 10.6%, higher than the 1990 level.

The outlook is an important tool for understanding how various factorscan drive the anticipated growth in emissions and the progress Canada ismaking towards achieving its stabilizationcommitment. It must be used in conjunction with the other assessmenttools discussed in this report when considering the scope and nature of additional measures to limit emissions.


Chapter 13

Table 13.13

Impact Analysis


Scenario Energy Demand CO2Emissions (PJ) (Mt)

1% Higher Economic Growth +313 +30$5 Lower World Oil Prices +214 +15.5$5 Higher World Oil Prices -202 -13.7Different Sector Growth Profiles -211 -13

Impact in the Year 2000


Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fromnew single-family homes built after1991 will account for 1% of totalCanadian emissions in the year 2000and 2% in 2020. Although the share ofoverall emissions is relatively small, newhomes will clearly account for anincreasing share of the total housingstock over time.

Energy requirements in new homes canbe reduced through measures toimprove the energy efficiency of build-ing envelopes and space heating equip-ment. This leads to lower greenhousegas emissions where fossil fuels are usedfor energy, at either the end-use orelectricity-generation stages.

For every human activity that leads togreenhouse gas emissions, there areunderlying factors that influence emis-sion trends and the extent to which lim-itation measures are successful. Theroles of these factors and how theyaffect emission trends often differ fromactivity to activity. A credible assess-ment of emission limitation measuresdealing with a specific activity requiresa clear understanding of these relation-ships.

The following case study examines mea-sures to limit greenhouse gas emissionsassociated with space heating require-ments in new single-family homes. Itidentifies opportunities for limitinggreenhouse gas emissions associatedwith heating, discusses the role of mea-sures to reduce these emissions andevaluates the effectiveness of thesemeasures.

Overview

For this case study, a new single-familyhome is defined as a home built after1991. The impact of measures imple-mented before the end of 1991 isreflected in the overall energy use esti-mates for 1991, the most recent year forwhich energy use data were available atthe time this case study was prepared.(Aggregate residential sector energyuse data used for this analysis aredrawn from Statistics Canada’ sQuarterly Report on Energy Supply andDemand. Disaggregated data are takenfrom several sources, the most impor-tant of which is Statistics Canada’ sHousehold Facilities and EquipmentSurvey.)

The decision to focus on measures thataddress space heating in newsingle-family homes reflects the exis-tence of a relatively solid base of dataand a good understanding of how effi-ciency measures can influence energyuse. For simplicity, this case study evalu-ates efficiency measures for CO2 emis-sions only.

The case study begins with backgroundinformation on energy use in the resi-dential sector and discusses how build-ing systems interact. This informationhelps to identify opportunities forreducing energy use and, in turn, green-house gas emissions. The study thenexamines measures that have beenimplemented by the Government ofCanada with the co-operation ofprovincial/territorial governments andthe private sector to improve the ener-gy efficiency of building envelopes and

Chapter 14

Case Study of Carbon Dioxide EmissionsAssociated With Space HeatingIn New Single-Family Homes

space heating equipment. These mea-sures include regulations, information/persuasion programs, and research anddevelopment activities. Finally, the studyconsiders the impact of these measureson future energy use and CO2 emissions.

Space Heating in New Single-family Homes:

SETTING THE CONTEXT

In 1991, the residential sector accountedfor 20% of total secondary energy con-sumption in Canada. Space heating is byfar the dominant end-use activity in thissector, accounting for two thirds of con-sumed energy. (Space cooling, by con-trast, accounts for less than 1%.)

Natural gas dominated energy sourcesfor space heating, with a 52% share.Other sources include electricity (18%),light fuel oil (17%) and wood (12%).Natural gas, light fuel oil and wood aredirect sources of greenhouse gas emis-sions. Electricity, on the other hand, isconsidered an indirect source with emis-sions coming from centralized generat-ing stations using fossil fuels such ascoal, oil and natural gas.

Electricity now represents a much largershare of energy used in new homescompared with the overall housingstock. In 1991, for example, electricityuse increased to 40% of energy require-

ments for space heating in new homes.Natural gas increased slightly as well.(These figures are averages only: energychoices for space heating in new homesvary widely across Canada, dependingon costs and availability.)

In recent years, new houses have beenconstructed at an annual rate of about225 000 units, and just under threequarters are single-family units. Thisrepresents approximately 2% of thetotal housing stock in Canada. Theyear-to-year impact of measures toimprove energy efficiency in new homeswill always be small, so it is best to eval-uate the cumulative impact over longerperiods of time.

The Building as an Integrated System

It is useful to think of a building as anintegrated system comprising an enve-lope (walls, ceilings, roof, windows,doors, etc.), architectural features(exposure to wind and energy from thesun) and energy-using mechanicalequipment (all equipment and appli-ances related to space heating and cool-ing, ventilation, lighting, water heating,cooking, refrigeration and humidifica-tion). The interaction of the buildingenvelope, architectural features andmechanical equipment, along with thedemands of the occupants, determinethe amount of energy used for spaceheating in any particular building. Theiroften complex interaction means thatimprovements in one factor will notalways translate into correspondingimprovements in overall energy use in abuilding. For example, a more energy-efficient refrigerator that gives off lessheat results in more work from a build-ing’s central heating system to maintainthe same level of comfort that had beenenjoyed previously.

This case study focuses on the buildingenvelope and space heating equipment.

Building Envelope

In 1991, existing single-family homes inCanada used an average of 75 outputgigajoules (OGJ) for space heating, witha wide variation between the most- and


Chapter 14

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Uninsulated

Minor insulation

Standard

Improved

EnergyEfficient

Figure 14.1

Average AnnualHeat Load ofSingle-FamilyHomes byThermalArchetype(Output GJ/year)



least-efficient homes. Those built topost-1975 (improved) standards, forexample, are 70% more efficient thanhomes built before 1945. The improvedstandards reflect National ResearchCouncil 1978 and 1983 Measures forEnergy Conservation in New Buildings.Figure 14.1 lists the average amount ofheat required for each of the differentthermal archetypes.

Although 65% of existing Canadianstock has been built or retrofitted toimproved or standard (those built from1961 to 1975 according to provincialstandards requiring full insulation) lev-els, 14% of houses remain uninsulatedand a further one fifth are said to haveonly minor insulation. As shown inFigure 14.2, less than 1% of the hous-ing stock is considered energy efficient,that is, built to R-2000 or similar stan-dards.

The space heating requirements of newCanadian homes are estimated to beclose to 50% lower than comparablerequirements for existing housing stock.Virtually all houses are being built toimproved standards. However, up to1990, more than half of all dwellingcompletions in Canada were built tostandards similar to the 1978 measuresrather than the 1983 measures.

Market penetration of energy-efficienthomes remains very low. Only 1% to2% of new single-family houses meetR-2000 standards. Clearly, the prospectsfor improving the overall energy effi-ciency of building envelopes in theCanadian housing stock are significant,but it will take time before a realimpact on energy use and greenhousegas emissions is observed.

Mechanical Equipment

The three main fuels used for spaceheating in the residential sector are nat-ural gas, electricity and oil. Within eachfuel type, consumers have a variety ofheating equipment from which tochoose, some of which are more energyefficient than others. In 1991, 44.2% ofresidential homes were heated withnatural gas, 33.5% with electricity and16.9% with oil. This translates into

space heating energy consumption of455 petajoules (PJ) for natural gas, 165PJ for electricity and 156 PJ for oil.

Until recently, there has been low pene-tration by mid-efficiency oil furnacesand essentially no penetration byhigh-efficiency furnaces. Today, con-sumers are buying more efficient spaceheating equipment. High-efficiency nat-ural gas units have accounted for morethan 20% of new shipments since 1984.Mid-efficiency units have increasedfrom 9% of new shipments in 1984 to20% in 1991. However, less-efficient,conventional furnaces still accountedfor 60% of new shipments in 1991.Overall, the average efficiency of newnatural gas furnace shipments amount-ed to 73% in 1991.

In summary, the low stock efficienciesof oil and natural gas furnaces com-bined with the availability, but still lowpenetration, of higher-efficiency unitspoint to significant opportunities toimprove the overall efficiency of spaceheating equipment in Canada. It isthese opportunities that energy effi-ciency measures are meant to address.

Initiatives To Reduce Space Heating Energy

Requirements in New Homes

Federal, provincial/territorial and munici-pal governments and stakeholders have

Case Study of Carbon Dioxide Emissions

14.0%

0.1%28.2%

37.1%

20.6%

Uninsulated EE Improved Standard Minor Insula

Figure 14.2

Distribution ofStock of Single-

Family Homes byThermal

Archetype, 1988*

* Excludes apartmentsand mobile homes


Canada

undertaken a range of measures to capi-talize on opportunities to improve theenergy efficiency of building envelopesand space heating equipment in newsingle-family homes in Canada. This casestudy focuses on federal measures, manyof which are being implemented jointlywith other governments and with stake-holders. Complete information regard-ing the effects of these measures is notcurrently available for all jurisdictions.Some of these measures work directly toimprove energy efficiency; others aredesigned to reinforce action taken byprovincial governments, and electricaland natural gas utility companies.

Under the Constitution Act, standardsfor buildings and mechanical equip-ment are the responsibility of provincialgovernments, unless there is a relevantfederal aspect that allows the federalgovernment to regulate. The federalgovernment often seeks to achieve spe-cific policy objectives (e.g., those relatedto energy efficiency in buildings) byworking in partnership with local andregional governments and stakeholderson specific projects and programs and byencouraging voluntary adoption ofnational standards and codes of practice.

The case study discusses and evaluates amixture of new initiatives and a contin-uation of existing measures that havebeen given new life through theGovernment of Canada’s Efficiency andAlternative Energy (EAE) Initiative.

Building Initiatives

Federal and provincial/territorial govern-ments, electrical and natural gas utilities,and national and provincial builders’associations are working together toimprove energy efficiency in buildingenvelopes through a range of initiatives.

The R-2000 Program

Energy efficient, R-2000 houses havebeen on the Canadian market for manyyears. When compared with convention-al houses, those built to the R-2000design standard can reduce space heat-ing requirements by as much as one half.

The R-2000 program is being updated for

the first time since 1980. The new stan-dards include high levels of insulation inthe ceilings, walls and basement;high-efficiency windows and doors; amechanical ventilation system often cou-pled with a heat recovery system; a high-efficiency heating system and lighting;and other environmental features, suchas low-water-use equipment andlow-emission carpeting. R-2000 standardswill continue to be updated to addressenvironmental concerns and incorporateadvances in housing technology.

A national R-2000 advisory committeeof stakeholders has been established tomobilize national and regional efforts.Since 1991, 25 new partners have joinedthe R-2000 Program, further supportingthe regional partnerships which nowdeliver the program in most provinces.In 1992, these partners contributedabout $7 million towards the Program,while the Government of Canada pro-vided an additional $2 million. As aresult, 1992 was the best year ever, withover 1 200 homes built to R-2000 stan-dards Canada-wide.

Building Energy Code

The Government of Canada is workingwith the provinces and territories toencourage those with jurisdiction overbuilding construction to adopt provi-sions contained in the new Energy Codefor New Buildings, which integrates theNational Building Code and theMeasures for Energy Conservation. Thegoal is to have national standards forbuilding energy efficiency in place by1995. These standards will reflectregional energy and construction costs.

Building Information Transfer

The Building Information TransferProgram has recently been introducedby the Government of Canada as part ofits Efficiency and Alternative EnergyProgram. This initiative is designed tomaintain and heighten awareness ofenergy efficiency and environmentalconsiderations in key markets of thebuilding sector by addressing informa-tion barriers to the adoption of energy-efficient practices and products.


Chapter 14


Building Energy TechnologyAdvancement

Under the Building Energy TechnologyAdvancement (BETA) plan of theCanada Centre for Mineral and EnergyTechnology, new environmentallyresponsible technologies are beingdeveloped that could lead to significantreductions in the energy consumptionof Canadian buildings. Activities areconducted through cost-shared agree-ments with private industry, researchorganizations and other agencies

The Advanced House Program workswith the residential construction indus-try to cost-share the design, construc-tion and monitoring of 10 advancedhouses across the country. The programaims to accelerate the deployment ofmore energy-efficient and environmen-tally responsible technologies, tech-niques and products into the Canadianhome-building industry.

Advanced houses use a variety of innov-ative ideas, research prototypes andnew products to meet rigorous perfor-mance targets such as reducing theenergy consumed for heating, cooling,lights, appliances and hot water, rela-tive to the R-2000 home, by 50%.

Equipment Initiatives

There is clearly significant potential toimprove the efficiency of space heatingequipment in Canada. The federal andprovincial/territorial governments, andelectrical and natural gas utilities areworking together on two key initiativesto realize this potential: national energyefficiency standards and an expandedenergy consumption labelling guide.

Energy Efficiency Standardsfor Equipment

Federal minimum energy efficiencystandards are being established underthe Energy Efficiency Act to remove theleast-efficient models of energy-usingequipment from the marketplace.Public consultation on proposed federalstandards has been completed, and reg-ulations are being drafted for 21 differ-ent types of energy-using equipment.

These national standards are beingco-ordinated with provincial/territorialgovernments, which currently regulatethe sale of such equipment within theirjurisdictions. Four provincial govern-ments (Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotiaand British Columbia) have enacted leg-islation establishing minimum efficiencystandards for energy-using equipment.Provincial regulations cover, or plan tocover, natural gas furnaces and sometypes of heat-pump systems, but nonecover oil furnaces.

EnerGuide Labelling

As part of its Efficiency and AlternativeEnergy Program, the Government ofCanada is enhancing and expanding theEnerGuide Labelling Program, whichbegan in 1978. EnerGuide encouragesconsumers to buy the most energy-effi-cient equipment by requiring manufac-turers to affix EnerGuide labels indicat-ing the associated energy consumption.A new EnerGuide label has beendesign-tested and accepted by all stake-holders. It is currently being promotedacross Canada.

Assessing the Effectivenessof Measures to Improve the Energy Efficiency ofSpace Heating in New Single-Family Homes

This assessment focuses on space heat-ing and the combined effects of mea-sures to limit emissions (by reducingenergy use) associated with this activity.

Analytical Approach

Regulatory initiatives affecting spaceheating energy requirements for newsingle-family homes include buildingcodes and minimum energy efficiencystandards for equipment. These mea-sures seek to eliminate the least-effi-cient products from the marketplace.However, this “weeding out” is notenough to ensure that consumers buyhighly efficient products.


To encourage consumers to purchaseproducts that not only meet, butexceed, minimum standards, informa-tion/suasion programs, such asEnerGuide and the Building InformationTransfer initiative, have been imple-mented. And to make sure that new,more energy-efficient products eventu-ally reach the marketplace and expandconsumer choices, research and devel-opment activities, such as the AdvancedHouse Program, are under way.

This study is based on the premise thatthese initiatives work together to movethe residential housing market towardsgreater energy efficiency. Their impacton energy use patterns and CO2 emis-sions will be evaluated by comparingtwo scenarios: one with these measuresin place (reference) and one without(basic).

The success of energy efficiency initia-tives discussed in this case study dependson the successful co-ordination of activi-ties by federal and provincial/territorialgovernments, utility companies andother stakeholders. For example, it hasbeen assumed that provincial/territorialauthorities will fully adopt theGovernment of Canada’s Energy Codefor New Buildings and integrate it intotheir own building codes.

This case study uses the ResidentialEnd-Use Model (REUM) to assess theimpact of measures on residential ener-gy use. Developed by the NationalEnergy Board in the mid-1980s, REUMhas been adopted and modified by theEfficiency and Alternative EnergyBranch at Natural Resources Canada.

REUM calculates residential energy con-sumption by province, fuel and end use.The calculation for space heating innew housing involves multiplying hous-ing variables by corresponding unit ener-gy consumption variables (i.e., thermaloutput energy requirements adjusted forboth weather and efficiency of heatingsystem by fuel). Space heating input ener-gy consumption is determined by sum-ming the products of these calculations.

Major Assumptions

Two scenarios were developed to deter-mine energy savings. The first, or basicscenario, which covers the period from1991 to 2020, depicts residential energydemand without initiatives directed atimproving the energy efficiency of residential space heating.

The second scenario, referred to as thereference scenario, includes all assump-tions associated with the basic scenario,as well as more aggressive assumptionsconcerning the efficiency of new equip-ment and buildings. The reference sce-nario is consistent with Canada’s EnergyOutlook, produced by Natural ResourcesCanada. The impact of energy savings iscalculated by taking the difference inenergy demand between the basic andreference scenarios.

All the macro-economic and energy-priceassumptions underlying the two scenar-ios are documented in the discussion ofCanada’s energy outlook in Chapter 13.Assumptions about building and equip-ment efficiency are described below.

Basic Scenario

Three key assumptions about the majorinfluences on space heating energyrequirements in new single-familyhomes are made in the basic scenario.

• New single-family homes will beadded to the stock of single-familyhomes at an annual rate of 3.6% (orabout 122 000 units each year).

• Average thermal output energyrequirements of new homes willincrease by 10% from 1991 to 2020.

• The annual fuel utilization efficien-cy of space heating equipment willremain constant at 1991 levels(73.3% for natural gas furnaces and66.2% for oil) from 1991 to 2020.

Reference Scenario

The Reference scenario includes modifiedassumptions about the energy efficiencyof building envelopes and space heatingequipment in new housing. These assump-tions reflect the expected combinedimpact of the initiatives discussed earlier.


Chapter 14


For building shells, it is assumed thatthe average space heating requirementsof new Canadian homes will decreasefrom 35 GJ/year in 1995 to 25 GJ/year in2005. This is only marginally less thantoday’s R-2000 house.

The distribution of new housing accord-ing to space heating load requirementsfor 1995 and 2005 (the two years whenit is assumed the building code will beupdated) results in four assumptions.

• In 1995, 90% of new houses will bebetween 11% and 20% more effi-cient, depending on their location,than levels associated with the 1983Measures for Energy Conservation.The remaining 10% will match thecurrent R-2000 house standards.

• In 2005, 90% of new houses willmeet current R-2000 house stan-dards and 10% will be equivalent tothe advanced house technology.

• The average energy efficiency ofnatural gas furnaces will improve to80% in 1994, 82.5% in 2002 and94% in 2020. The year 1994 wasselected because the first regula-tions under the Energy EfficiencyAct are expected to be implementedthen. The year 2002 was chosen tobe consistent with the earliest revi-sions to US standards for oil andnatural gas furnaces, and 2020 wasassumed to be a reasonable date forstandards revisions.

• The average system efficiency of oilfurnaces will improve to 80% in1995. The year 1995 was chosenbecause, although oil furnaces arenot included in the 1994 regula-tions, it is assumed that they will besubject to standards under the sec-ond set of regulations, assumed tobe implemented in 1995.

Case Study Results: Energy Use andGreenhouse Gas Emissions

Table 14.1 shows the differences inenergy requirements for space heatingin single-family homes under the basicand reference scenarios. The differencesrepresent the expected energy savingsfrom measures discussed in this case study.

In 2000, energy savings represent 18%of the total energy for space heatingthat would be required for all newhomes built since 1992. As more housesare built, savings grow to 31% in 2010and almost 40% by 2020. In other words,all new homes built from 1992 to 2020will use only 60% of the energy for spaceheating that would have been necessaryif the measures discussed in this casestudy had not been implemented.

While this case study recognizes thatreductions in other greenhouse gaseswill occur as a result of measures toreduce energy use in the residential sec-tor, the analysis focuses on CO2 emis-sions. Calculating CO2 emissions result-ing from reductions in energy consump-tion is relatively straightforward: multi-ply the savings for each type of fossilfuel used for space heating by theappropriate emissions coefficient. Whenit comes to looking at electricity, how-ever, this exercise becomes more chal-lenging.

Even at a local or regional level, it canbe difficult to determine the precise mixof energy sources — hydro, nuclear andfossil fuels — that has been used togenerate electricity to meet specificend-use demands. For example, a home-owner who uses electricity for heatingoften has little or no way of knowingwhether that electricity has been sup-plied by a hydro plant, a coal-basedthermal plant or a combination of thetwo.

Two alternate emission reduction scenar-ios are therefore presented, based on dif-ferent assumptions regarding the energymix used for electricity generation.

• A low-emissions scenario assumesthat all savings in electricity will dis-place the marginal fuel used for


Table 14.1

Space HeatingRequirements in

New Single-Family Homes

(Petajoules)


Basic Case 55.4 122.5 190.3

Reference Case 44.4 85.1 118.2

Savings 10.0 37.4 72.1

% Savings 18% 31% 38%

2000 2010 2020

intermediate electricity generationin the provinces/territories wherethe electricity is being saved. Forthose provinces where the electricitysavings exceed the intermediateload (i.e., level of electricity demandbetween base load and the peakload), it is assumed that the savings,in excess of the intermediate load,would displace the base load fuel.

• A high emissions scenario assumesthat savings in electricity will displaceelectricity generated from coal,regardless of location. For thoseprovinces that do not use coal to anysignificant degree, such as Quebecand Manitoba, both of which relylargely on hydro-electricity, it isassumed that reductions in electricitydemand will result in increased salesto adjacent provinces, thereby dis-placing coal-based electricity.

Table 14.2 provides an overview of theassumptions regarding fuel displace-ment from electricity savings. Althoughneither scenario reflects the most prob-able reductions in CO2 emissions, it isnot unreasonable to suggest that theactual outcome will lie somewherebetween the two.

Table 14.3 presents the reductions in CO2emissions that can be expected from 1992to 2020 as a result of efforts to reduceenergy requirements for space heating insingle-family homes. The impact is smallin the initial years and then grows steadi-ly towards the end of the forecast period.In 2000, CO2 reductions represent 16% to18% of total emissions that would haveotherwise resulted from all new homesbuilt since 1992. In 2010, reductions rep-resent 28% to 30%. By 2020, they repre-sent 35% to 38%.

Summary

The Case Study

This case study is a preliminary assess-ment of expected energy efficiencymeasures related to space heatingrequirements in new single-familyhomes. A full evaluation of these mea-sures can only be done based on experi-ence over the next few years.

Nonetheless, the case study does revealthe potential for promoting structuralchanges in the housing stock that willhave an important impact on energyefficiency and greenhouse gas emissions

over time. For exam-ple, the expectedenergy savings forspace heating result-ing from measuresimplemented in thisstudy rise from 10%of the total energyrequired for all newhomes built between1992 and 2000 toalmost 40% by 2020.

BroaderImplications

This case study high-lights the scope ofdata needed toundertake suchdetailed analysis.Before this approachcan be applied to therest of the residentialsector and to other


Chapter 14

Table 14.3

Reductions inCO2 Emissions(kilotonnes)

Source:Natural Resources Canada

Reductions

High 800 3077 5978Low 621 2339 4459

2000 2010 2020

Atlantic Heavy Fuel Oil Canadian Bituminous

Quebec Hydro Displace Ontario Coal

Ontario Heavy Fuel Oil/ Canadian Bituminous/Canadian Bituminous Lignite

Manitoba Hydro Lignite

Saskatchewan Natural Gas/Lignite Lignite

Alberta Natural Gas Sub-Bituminous/Canadian Bituminous

British Columbia Natural Gas Displace Alberta Coal

Region Low Emissions Scenario High Emissions ScenarioTable 14.2

FuelDisplacementfrom ElectricitySavings

Source:Natural Resources Canada


sectors, the availability and quality ofinformation on energy use and its majordeterminants must be improved. Theunderstanding of energy use at theend-use level must also be significantlyenhanced, and frameworks must be inplace in all energy-consuming sectors to relate initiatives (such as the onescovered in this case study) to nationalenvironmental goals such as the limitationof greenhouse gases.

The Government of Canada made astrong commitment to improve theavailability and quality of data on ener-gy use at the end-use level in Canadawhen it announced its National DataBase Initiative. This Initiative will estab-lish processes for the regular collectionof detailed information on energy usein all sectors.

Case studies clearly offer a promisingtool for identifying opportunities forlimiting greenhouse gas emissions asso-ciated with many human activities, fordiscussing the role of measures toreduce these emissions, and for evaluat-ing the effectiveness of these measures.However, to build an aggregate pictureof Canada’s progress towards meetingemission limitation commitments,future case studies will have to considerany economic feedback effects relatedto measures under study or resultingfrom activities in other sectors.

Finally, this case study also illustratesthe challenging nature of the calcula-tions required to evaluate the impact ofthese measures on greenhouse gasemissions. As well, it demonstrates thatenergy efficiency measures often com-plement one another, vertically (acrossgovernments and stakeholders) andhorizontally (across policy instruments).

For more information on initiatives dis-cussed in this case study, see theConservation and Renewable EnergyProgram Directory and Data Base pro-duced by the Interprovincial/TerritorialAdvisory Committee on Energy (ACE)and the Conservation and RenewableEnergy Subcommittee (ACE/CARES).


Under the Framework Convention onClimate Change, countries must adoptmeasures to mitigate climate change,adapt to its possible effects, increase public awareness and scientific under-standing of climate change and possibleresponses, and work together in all of these areas. Developed countries, in particular, must adopt policies, programsand measures with the aim of returninggreenhouse gas emissions to earlier levelsby the end of this decade. As a first step,Canada has established a national goal to stabilize net emissions of greenhousegases not controlled by the MontrealProtocol at 1990 levels by the year 2000.

The purpose of this national report is to provide a “snapshot” of action beingtaken by Canada to meet its commit-ments under the Climate ChangeConvention. The report also provides a foundation for understanding Canada’ssituation and for determining the extentof further action needed to achieve ourclimate change goals. Future nationalreports will provide information on additional action taken and onCanada’s progress in achieving its climate change objectives.

Producing a National Report

A draft version of this national reportwas reviewed by federal and provincial/territorial energy and environment minis-ters at their joint meeting in November1993. They agreed that the documentprovided a foundation for understandingCanada’s situation and determining theextent of further action needed to meetCanada’s climate change goals.

This national report was produced by the federal energy and environmentdepartments, working in close consulta-tion with provincial/territorial andmunicipal governments and non-govern-ment stakeholders. A draft was releasedin September 1993 by the co-chairs of the National Air Issues Co-ordinatingCommittee (NAICC) for public review and comment. Over 1500 copies weredistributed to a wide range of interestedgroups and individuals throughoutCanada. An additional 300 copies weredistributed internationally forinformation to national governmentsand heads of delegations to the Inter-governmental Negotiating Committee.

During the review period, some 30 submissions were received from a fullrange of Canadian stakeholders, includ-ing industry associations, environmentalgroups, electrical utility companies, private consultants and academics. Most of the submissions were supportiveof the national report and its overallpurpose. This review process providedCanadians with an opportunity to comment on a number of reporting and assessment issues and, more generally, on the shape and direction of Canada’s response to climate change.

All the submissions were reviewed by the Task Group on Climate Change, amulti-stakeholder forum for co-ordinat-ing climate change activities in Canadathat reports to the NAICC. Many comments and suggestions have been incorporated in this document.


Chapter 15

Looking to The Future


The Need For Further Action

A wide range of actions are under wayor planned in Canada by governmentsand non-government stakeholders to limit emissions. Many are also underway to adapt to climate change, increasepublic awareness, improve scientificunderstanding and co-operate interna-tionally in all areas.

In 1990, Canada’s total energy-relatedand non-energy-related emissions ofCO2, CH4 and N2O were equivalent to526 megatonnes of CO2. The outlook in this report shows that energy-relatedemissions may be close to 11% higher in 2000 than in 1990. This means addi-tional measures are needed if Canada is to meet its climate change objectives.

In response to the conclusions con-tained in this national report, federaland provincial/territorial energy andenvironment ministers have instructedtheir officials:

. . . to proceed with the development of options that will meet Canada’s cur-rent commitment to stabilize greenhousegas emissions by the year 2000 and todevelop sustainable options to achievefurther progress in the reduction ofemissions by the year 2005.

Working in Partnership

A process has been established to develop and recommend to federal and provincial/territorial energy andenvironment ministers a national actionprogram designed to meet Canada’s climate change goals. This process isbased on a new Comprehensive AirQuality Framework that encourages alljurisdictions in Canada to co-ordinate,and co-operate in, the management ofall air issues, including acid deposition,smog, ozone depletion and, of course,climate change. This framework is beingimplemented by means of a NationalAir Issues Co-ordinating Mechanism.

Part of the new co-ordinating mecha-nism is a national Task Group onClimate Change. This multi-stakeholdergroup of government, business, labour,consumer and environmental membershas accepted responsibility for complet-ing this, and future, national reports,providing advice to the federal govern-ment regarding positions Canadashould be taking during internationalclimate change negotiations, and developing a national action programto achieve Canada’s climate changegoals.

Achieving the goals set by Canada on climate change is a challenging task, one that requires the efforts and co-operation of all government and non-government stakeholders. It is also achallenge that must be met by individualCanadians in their daily lives if long-term, sustainable progress in addressingclimate change is to be made.

Looking to The Future

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Canada. Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Workshop (Canadian ClimateProgram Report). Downsview: Department of the Environment, Canadian ClimateCentre, 1990.

Canada. Canada’s National Report to UNCED. Ottawa, 1991.

Canada. The State of Canada’s Environment. Ottawa, 1991.

Canada. Electric Power in Canada 1989. Ottawa: Department of Energy, Mines andResources, 1991.

Canada. Environmental Citizenship: A Challenge for Communities and Organizations.Ottawa: Department of the Environment, 1991.

Canada. Canadian Energy Supply and Demand 1990—2010. National Energy Board,1991.

Canada. Canada and Global Warming: Meeting the Challenge. Ottawa, 1992.

Canada. Economic Instruments for Environmental Protection, Discussion Paper.Ottawa, 1992.

Canada. CIDA’s Policy on Environmental Sustainability. Ottawa: CanadianInternational Development Agency, 1992.

Canada. Proceedings of Canada–U.S. Symposia Series on Climate Change: (a) GreatLakes, 1988; (b) Great Plains, 1990; (c) Forests of the Pacific Northwest, 1991; (d) TheArctic, 1992. (These proceedings are not available for distribution.) Department ofthe Environment.

Canada. Canada’s Green Plan: The Second Year. Ottawa, 1993.

Canada. Canadian Climate Program. Ottawa: Department of Energy, Mines andResources and Department of the Environment, 1993.

Canada. MBIS: Mackenzie Basin Impact Study Interim Report No. 1. Edited by S. J.Cohen. Downsview: Department of the Environment, 1993.

Canada. Adapt and Thrive: Research and Service in Climate Adaptation (CanadianClimate Centre Draft Paper). Downsview: Department of the Environment, ClimateAdaptation Branch, 1993.

Canada. The Budget 1993. Ottawa: Department of Finance, 1993.

Canada. Canada’s Energy Outlook: 1990–2020 (Working paper). Ottawa: Departmentof Natural Resources, 1993.

Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. Sustainable Forests: A Canadian Commitment,Draft One.


Selected References


Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment. Management Plan for NitrogenOxides (NOx) and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), Phase I. 1990.

Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment. Management Plan for NitrogenOxides (NOx) and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), Phase I, Summary Report.1990.

Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment. National Action Strategy onGlobal Warming (Draft). Winnipeg, 1990.

Canadian Electrical Association and Energy, Mines and Resources Canada. DemandSide Management in Canada — 1990.

Canadian Electrical Association, Environment Canada and the Canadian Centre forMineral and Energy Technology. Final Draft of Report Measuring Emissions fromCanadian Utilities. 1990.

Canadian Gas Association. The Significance of Methane Emission From Natural GasOperations in Canada Relative to the Natural Environment and Global Warming. 1989.

Canadian Industry Program for Energy Conservation Council. Canadian IndustryProgram for Energy Conservation. 1990.

Clean Air Strategy for Alberta. Report to the Ministers. 1991.

Clearstone Engineering Ltd. A Detailed Inventory of CH4 and VOC Emissions fromUpstream Oil and Gas Operations in Alberta, Volumes 1, 2 and 3. Prepared for theCanadian Petroleum Association, 1992.

Ferguson, H. L., and D. W. Phillips. Developing a National Climate Programme — ADecade of Canadian Experience. Ottawa: Department of the Environment, 1986.

Finlay, P. G. Environment Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Program. Ottawa:Department of the Environment, 1993.

Government of Quebec. Quebec’s Energy Efficiency Strategy. Charlesbourg:Ministère de l’Énergie et des Ressources, 1992.

Gullett, D. W., and W. R. Skinner. The State Of Canada’s Climate: TemperatureChange in Canada 1895–1991 (State of the Environment Report No. 92-2).Downsview: Department of the Environment, 1992.

Hengeveld, Henry. Understanding Atmospheric Change (State of the EnvironmentReport No. 91-2). Downsview: Department of the Environment, 1991.

Imperial Oil Limited. A Discussion Paper on Global Warming Response Options. 1991.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change: The IPCC ScientificAssessment. Edited by J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins and J. J. Ephramus. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1990.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 1992: TheSupplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Edited by J. T. Houghton, B. A. Callander and S. K. Varney. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992.

Interprovincial/Territorial Advisory Committee on Energy, Conservation andRenewable Energy Subcommittee (ACE/CARES), Conservation and Renewable EnergyProgram Directory and Database. 1992.

Jaques, A. P. Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Estimates for 1990 (Report EPS5/AP/4). Ottawa: Department of the Environment, 1992.

Selected References

Karman, Deniz. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Industrial Sources. Ottawa:Department of the Environment, 1993.

Kartek Research Inc. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Industrial Sources. Ottawa:Department of the Environment, 1993.

Kurz, W. A., M. J. Apps, T. M. Webb and P. J. McNamee. The Carbon Budget of theCanadian Forest Sector: Phase I. Ottawa: Department of Forestry, 1992.

Levelton, B. H. & Associates Ltd. An Inventory and Analysis of Control Measures forMethane for British Columbia. Prepared for the British Columbia Ministry ofEnvironment, Lands and Parks. Victoria, 1992.

Manitoba Roundtable on Environment & Economy. Workbook on Energy Strategy.

Nova Scotia Department of Natural Resources and Nova Scotia Department of theEnvironment. Nova Scotia Action Strategy on Global Warming — First Phase, A Draft. 1991.

Nuttle, W. K. Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in Canadian WaterResources (Rawson Academy Occasional Paper No. 7). Ottawa: Rawson Academy ofAquatic Sciences, 1993.

Ortech. Compilation of an Ontario Gridded Carbon Dioxide and Nitrous OxideEmission Inventory. Prepared for the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. Toronto,1991.

Osten, James A., George Vasic and David West. Carbon Dioxide Emissions andFederal Energy Policy. DRI/McGraw-Hill, 1991.

Smith, Robert. Canadian Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Input-Output Study (CAT No.11528E). Ottawa: Statistics Canada, 1993.

Stephen S. Graham Associates. International and National Perspectives onGreenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Strategies. Ottawa: Department of theEnvironment, 1992.

Task Force on Climate Adaptation. Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change(Canadian Climate Program Draft Paper). Downsview: Department of theEnvironment, 1993.

United Nations. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. NewYork, 1992.

United States. Annual Energy Outlook 1993. Washington, D.C.: Department ofEnergy, 1993.

United States/Japan Working Group on Methane. Technological Options forReducing Methane Emissions: Background Document of the Response StrategiesWorking Group. 1992.

Wellisch, M. MacMillan Bloedel Carbon Budget for the Alberni Region. MacMillanBloedel Research, 1992.

Woo, M. K., W. R. Rouse, A. G. Lewkowicz and K.L. Young. Adaptation to Permafrostin the Canadian North: Present and Future (Canadian Climate Centre Report No.92-3). Downsview: Department of the Environment, 1992.

World Bank. World Development Report 1992. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991.

World Resources Institute. World Resources 1992–93. Oxford: Oxford University Press,1992.


Selected References

Documents

Canada’s National Report on Climate Change · 2000-07-18 · environment and energy ministers collaborated to produce this national report, with valuable input from the private