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Can we do without nuclear?Mind the economic conditions of
a technological transition
Jean-Charles HourcadeDR CNRS, Directeur d’études EHESS
Lessons from the past, why a technical success ….
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100
0.1
0.2
0.3
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0.5
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0.7
(1-Eimp)/TPES ….. In toe
FranceGermanyItalieJapon
… leads to so ambiguous economic outcomes
19731975
19771979
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
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1
1.1
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Value of Net Energy Imports/GDP Germany/France, Italy/France, Japan/France index 1973 = 1
GermanyItalyJapan
Trade balance vs. energy external bill
19701973
19761979
19821985
19881991
19941997
20002003
2006
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
-4.16333634234434E-17
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
France
Balance commerciale/PIB Facture énergétique/PIB
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
Germany
Balance commerciale/PIB Facture énergétique/PIB
19701973
19761979
19821985
19881991
19941997
20002003
20062009
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
4.16333634234434E-17
0.02
0.04
0.0600000000000001
0.08
Italy
Balance commerciale/PIB Facture énergétique/PIB
19701973
19761979
19821985
19881991
19941997
20002003
2006
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
4.16333634234434E-17
0.02
0.04
0.0600000000000001
0.08
Japan
Balance commerciale/PIB Facture énergétique/PIB
Between technical and economical success, what parameters?
• A ‘electrification nuclear’ a lesser import-substitution effect than the « substititution nuclear »
• Exchange rates variations in $ … and other currencies
• Trade balance surplus and the purchasing power of oil and gaz
• Industrial « strategies », including their impact on energy demand
• A « crowding out effect » ???? … good question but hard to settle
An IAMC exercise: carbon constraints and availability of technological options
Combining three assumptions
Availability of CCS
Deployment of Nuclear
Level of Energy Efficiency
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Hypothèses centrales Forte EE Pas de CCS Pas de Nuke Combiné
A low cost for banning nuclear … even for a 550 ppm all gases Carbon Concentration Target?
GDP variation from the baseline
Cost of the ban of nuclear
Insights for the Future: ‘suggestions’ from existing world scenarios
• Can the world « live » without nuclear? – « likely » yes in the absence of carbon constraint– « less likely » yes in the presence of carbon constraint
… because the political limits to nuclear have already been internalized in baseline scenarios
• Will the world « live » without nuclear? This will depend upon decisions in China, India as well as in the US and EU
• France, a specific case because nuclear is central in the electrical system
France without nuclear: Let us pick one plausible but arbitrary baseline …. And the « Taxe Quinet »
• GDP growth rate: ~ from 1,9 % to 1,7 after 2035• Electricity demand: multiplied by 2 in 2050 • Emissions over 2010 and 2050 (baseline): 12,4 GtCO2 • Share of the nuclear: between 60% and 70%• Energy efficiency set of asymptotes• New and renewable energies: a potential of 30% • Significant infrastructure investments in transport and buildings• Implementation of the Quinet’s carbon tax
• France has a nul external debt and a nul public debt in 2050
Date 2011 2020 2030 2050
€/tCO2 32 56 100 200
GDP variations from the baseline
GDP variations with fine tuned recycling of the carbon tax
Conclusions: a three step debate to be conducted
Are carbon – free no nuke options (including energy efficiency) available the transition technically feasible? • Highly controversial but, ultimately• A matter of direction of innovation and of pace of deployment
Economic lubricants matter• To support the re-direction of microeconomic decisions• To minimize the social costs of the transition
Societal pre-conditions (not considered in the previous simulations)• The availablity of skilled labor: does the education system ‘produces’
enough ingeniers and technicians in the concerned sectors• Beyond energy efficiency, the consumption styles