Can the US Continue as World Leader

Lecture by Robert M CoenEmeritus Professor of Economics

Northwestern University

Alumnae Continuing EducationNovember 9 2010

United Kingdom Late 18th to late 19th century

Dutch had highest productivity but little productivity growth

Spurs to UK productivity growth

Higher capital investment than Dutch

Promotion of free markets international competition

Technical advances textiles iron amp steel steam power railways

Application of scientific principles but why in UK See R C Allen The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective

Property rights more secure in FranceItaly and Germany develop science of steam engineDutch were highly urbanized higher literacy rate

Military demands of Royal Navy create demand for technologyDevelopment of patent systemHigh wages cheap coal consumer society

Reasons UK Dethroned

Did not explicitly foster education and technology

Capital stock grew slowly savings available but foreigninvestment as large as domestic

Diffused growth process to follower countries through freetrade foreign investment exportof technology

Currency became overvalued

US Late 19th century to

US advantages

Abundant natural resources

High rates of investment (twice UK in 1890-1950) including public investment in infrastructure and education

Large free domestic market fosters large companies enjoying scale economies funds for research

Protectionist trade policies slavery

Position strengthened by two world wars

Growth Accounting for Leaders

Annual Growth Rates (percent)

GDP per Capital per labor per labor Tech

Leader Period hour hour progress

Dutch 1700-1785 -01 na 0

UK 1785-1820 05 00 05UK 1820-1890 14 09 11

US 1890-1979 23 24 15

Source Angus Maddison Phases of Capitalist Development Authorrsquos estimate assuming 1 percent increase in capital per labor hour increases GDP per labor hour by 033 percent

Lessons from Past Leadership Changes

bull Leadership requires large GDP not just high GDPN

bull Leadership in banking and finance not just production

bull Leader should resist tendency for overvaluation of currency

bull Economy should be open to people trade ideas

bull Economy must be conducive to technical progress

Securing US Leadership after World War II

bull Post World War II reconstruction

bull Floating the dollar in 1971

bull Maturing of the dollar as a world currency

bull Facilitating export-led growth in Asia

International Economic Flows

Dollars in

bull Exports of goods and services

bull Transfers from foreigners

bull Profits received from foreign investments

bull Foreign investments in US

Dollars out

bull Imports of goods and services

bull Transfers to foreigners

bull Profits paid to foreign investors

bull US investments abroad

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Net Exports 1947Q1-2009Q4

Percent of GDP (current prices)

Per

cent

Year

US Trade Balance by Type of Product 1967 and 2006

Billions of dollars

1967 2006 Change

Goods and Services 36 -7693 -7729

Goods 44 -8605 -8649

Foods 04 -89 -93

Industrial supplies 01 -241 -242

Petroleum -21 -3024 -3003

Capital goods 74 -160 -234

Autos 04 -1493 -1497

Consumer goods -21 -3170 -3149

Other 03 -427 -430

Services -09 912 921

Why Trust in the Dollar

bull A large open economy to run payments deficits large enough to meet world currency needs

bull An independent responsible central bank -- the Federal Reserve

bull A large efficient commercial banking systembull Large deep and open capital marketsbull Relatively stable pricesbull A convertible currencybull A relatively stable exchange rate with other major

currenciesbull A track record demonstrating these characteristics

Challengers to US Leadership Past and Future

bull USSR (Russia)

bull Japan

bull European Union

bull Emerging Asia

Soviet EmpireRed states Communist governmentsOrange states Leaning communist

United Kingdom Late 18th to late 19th century

Dutch had highest productivity but little productivity growth

Spurs to UK productivity growth

Higher capital investment than Dutch

Promotion of free markets international competition

Technical advances textiles iron amp steel steam power railways

Application of scientific principles but why in UK See R C Allen The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective

Property rights more secure in FranceItaly and Germany develop science of steam engineDutch were highly urbanized higher literacy rate

Military demands of Royal Navy create demand for technologyDevelopment of patent systemHigh wages cheap coal consumer society

Reasons UK Dethroned

Did not explicitly foster education and technology

Capital stock grew slowly savings available but foreigninvestment as large as domestic

Diffused growth process to follower countries through freetrade foreign investment exportof technology

Currency became overvalued

US Late 19th century to

US advantages

Abundant natural resources

High rates of investment (twice UK in 1890-1950) including public investment in infrastructure and education

Large free domestic market fosters large companies enjoying scale economies funds for research

Protectionist trade policies slavery

Position strengthened by two world wars

Growth Accounting for Leaders

Annual Growth Rates (percent)

GDP per Capital per labor per labor Tech

Leader Period hour hour progress

Dutch 1700-1785 -01 na 0

UK 1785-1820 05 00 05UK 1820-1890 14 09 11

US 1890-1979 23 24 15

Source Angus Maddison Phases of Capitalist Development Authorrsquos estimate assuming 1 percent increase in capital per labor hour increases GDP per labor hour by 033 percent

Lessons from Past Leadership Changes

bull Leadership requires large GDP not just high GDPN

bull Leadership in banking and finance not just production

bull Leader should resist tendency for overvaluation of currency

bull Economy should be open to people trade ideas

bull Economy must be conducive to technical progress

Securing US Leadership after World War II

bull Post World War II reconstruction

bull Floating the dollar in 1971

bull Maturing of the dollar as a world currency

bull Facilitating export-led growth in Asia

International Economic Flows

Dollars in

bull Exports of goods and services

bull Transfers from foreigners

bull Profits received from foreign investments

bull Foreign investments in US

Dollars out

bull Imports of goods and services

bull Transfers to foreigners

bull Profits paid to foreign investors

bull US investments abroad

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Net Exports 1947Q1-2009Q4

Percent of GDP (current prices)

Per

cent

Year

US Trade Balance by Type of Product 1967 and 2006

Billions of dollars

1967 2006 Change

Goods and Services 36 -7693 -7729

Goods 44 -8605 -8649

Foods 04 -89 -93

Industrial supplies 01 -241 -242

Petroleum -21 -3024 -3003

Capital goods 74 -160 -234

Autos 04 -1493 -1497

Consumer goods -21 -3170 -3149

Other 03 -427 -430

Services -09 912 921

Why Trust in the Dollar

bull A large open economy to run payments deficits large enough to meet world currency needs

bull An independent responsible central bank -- the Federal Reserve

bull A large efficient commercial banking systembull Large deep and open capital marketsbull Relatively stable pricesbull A convertible currencybull A relatively stable exchange rate with other major

currenciesbull A track record demonstrating these characteristics

Challengers to US Leadership Past and Future

bull USSR (Russia)

bull Japan

bull European Union

bull Emerging Asia

Soviet EmpireRed states Communist governmentsOrange states Leaning communist

Reasons UK Dethroned

Did not explicitly foster education and technology

Capital stock grew slowly savings available but foreigninvestment as large as domestic

Diffused growth process to follower countries through freetrade foreign investment exportof technology

Currency became overvalued

US Late 19th century to

US advantages

Abundant natural resources

High rates of investment (twice UK in 1890-1950) including public investment in infrastructure and education

Large free domestic market fosters large companies enjoying scale economies funds for research

Protectionist trade policies slavery

Position strengthened by two world wars

Growth Accounting for Leaders

Annual Growth Rates (percent)

GDP per Capital per labor per labor Tech

Leader Period hour hour progress

Dutch 1700-1785 -01 na 0

UK 1785-1820 05 00 05UK 1820-1890 14 09 11

US 1890-1979 23 24 15

Source Angus Maddison Phases of Capitalist Development Authorrsquos estimate assuming 1 percent increase in capital per labor hour increases GDP per labor hour by 033 percent

Lessons from Past Leadership Changes

bull Leadership requires large GDP not just high GDPN

bull Leadership in banking and finance not just production

bull Leader should resist tendency for overvaluation of currency

bull Economy should be open to people trade ideas

bull Economy must be conducive to technical progress

Securing US Leadership after World War II

bull Post World War II reconstruction

bull Floating the dollar in 1971

bull Maturing of the dollar as a world currency

bull Facilitating export-led growth in Asia

International Economic Flows

Dollars in

bull Exports of goods and services

bull Transfers from foreigners

bull Profits received from foreign investments

bull Foreign investments in US

Dollars out

bull Imports of goods and services

bull Transfers to foreigners

bull Profits paid to foreign investors

bull US investments abroad

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Net Exports 1947Q1-2009Q4

Percent of GDP (current prices)

Per

cent

Year

US Trade Balance by Type of Product 1967 and 2006

Billions of dollars

1967 2006 Change

Goods and Services 36 -7693 -7729

Goods 44 -8605 -8649

Foods 04 -89 -93

Industrial supplies 01 -241 -242

Petroleum -21 -3024 -3003

Capital goods 74 -160 -234

Autos 04 -1493 -1497

Consumer goods -21 -3170 -3149

Other 03 -427 -430

Services -09 912 921

Why Trust in the Dollar

bull A large open economy to run payments deficits large enough to meet world currency needs

bull An independent responsible central bank -- the Federal Reserve

bull A large efficient commercial banking systembull Large deep and open capital marketsbull Relatively stable pricesbull A convertible currencybull A relatively stable exchange rate with other major

currenciesbull A track record demonstrating these characteristics

Challengers to US Leadership Past and Future

bull USSR (Russia)

bull Japan

bull European Union

bull Emerging Asia

Soviet EmpireRed states Communist governmentsOrange states Leaning communist

US Late 19th century to

US advantages

Abundant natural resources

High rates of investment (twice UK in 1890-1950) including public investment in infrastructure and education

Large free domestic market fosters large companies enjoying scale economies funds for research

Protectionist trade policies slavery

Position strengthened by two world wars

Growth Accounting for Leaders

Annual Growth Rates (percent)

GDP per Capital per labor per labor Tech

Leader Period hour hour progress

Dutch 1700-1785 -01 na 0

UK 1785-1820 05 00 05UK 1820-1890 14 09 11

US 1890-1979 23 24 15

Source Angus Maddison Phases of Capitalist Development Authorrsquos estimate assuming 1 percent increase in capital per labor hour increases GDP per labor hour by 033 percent

Lessons from Past Leadership Changes

bull Leadership requires large GDP not just high GDPN

bull Leadership in banking and finance not just production

bull Leader should resist tendency for overvaluation of currency

bull Economy should be open to people trade ideas

bull Economy must be conducive to technical progress

Securing US Leadership after World War II

bull Post World War II reconstruction

bull Floating the dollar in 1971

bull Maturing of the dollar as a world currency

bull Facilitating export-led growth in Asia

International Economic Flows

Dollars in

bull Exports of goods and services

bull Transfers from foreigners

bull Profits received from foreign investments

bull Foreign investments in US

Dollars out

bull Imports of goods and services

bull Transfers to foreigners

bull Profits paid to foreign investors

bull US investments abroad

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Net Exports 1947Q1-2009Q4

Percent of GDP (current prices)

Per

cent

Year

US Trade Balance by Type of Product 1967 and 2006

Billions of dollars

1967 2006 Change

Goods and Services 36 -7693 -7729

Goods 44 -8605 -8649

Foods 04 -89 -93

Industrial supplies 01 -241 -242

Petroleum -21 -3024 -3003

Capital goods 74 -160 -234

Autos 04 -1493 -1497

Consumer goods -21 -3170 -3149

Other 03 -427 -430

Services -09 912 921

Why Trust in the Dollar

bull A large open economy to run payments deficits large enough to meet world currency needs

bull An independent responsible central bank -- the Federal Reserve

bull A large efficient commercial banking systembull Large deep and open capital marketsbull Relatively stable pricesbull A convertible currencybull A relatively stable exchange rate with other major

currenciesbull A track record demonstrating these characteristics

Challengers to US Leadership Past and Future

bull USSR (Russia)

bull Japan

bull European Union

bull Emerging Asia

Soviet EmpireRed states Communist governmentsOrange states Leaning communist

Growth Accounting for Leaders

Annual Growth Rates (percent)

GDP per Capital per labor per labor Tech

Leader Period hour hour progress

Dutch 1700-1785 -01 na 0

UK 1785-1820 05 00 05UK 1820-1890 14 09 11

US 1890-1979 23 24 15

Source Angus Maddison Phases of Capitalist Development Authorrsquos estimate assuming 1 percent increase in capital per labor hour increases GDP per labor hour by 033 percent

Lessons from Past Leadership Changes

bull Leadership requires large GDP not just high GDPN

bull Leadership in banking and finance not just production

bull Leader should resist tendency for overvaluation of currency

bull Economy should be open to people trade ideas

bull Economy must be conducive to technical progress

Securing US Leadership after World War II

bull Post World War II reconstruction

bull Floating the dollar in 1971

bull Maturing of the dollar as a world currency

bull Facilitating export-led growth in Asia

International Economic Flows

Dollars in

bull Exports of goods and services

bull Transfers from foreigners

bull Profits received from foreign investments

bull Foreign investments in US

Dollars out

bull Imports of goods and services

bull Transfers to foreigners

bull Profits paid to foreign investors

bull US investments abroad

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Net Exports 1947Q1-2009Q4

Percent of GDP (current prices)

Per

cent

Year

US Trade Balance by Type of Product 1967 and 2006

Billions of dollars

1967 2006 Change

Goods and Services 36 -7693 -7729

Goods 44 -8605 -8649

Foods 04 -89 -93

Industrial supplies 01 -241 -242

Petroleum -21 -3024 -3003

Capital goods 74 -160 -234

Autos 04 -1493 -1497

Consumer goods -21 -3170 -3149

Other 03 -427 -430

Services -09 912 921

Why Trust in the Dollar

bull A large open economy to run payments deficits large enough to meet world currency needs

bull An independent responsible central bank -- the Federal Reserve

bull A large efficient commercial banking systembull Large deep and open capital marketsbull Relatively stable pricesbull A convertible currencybull A relatively stable exchange rate with other major

currenciesbull A track record demonstrating these characteristics

Challengers to US Leadership Past and Future

bull USSR (Russia)

bull Japan

bull European Union

bull Emerging Asia

Soviet EmpireRed states Communist governmentsOrange states Leaning communist

Lessons from Past Leadership Changes

bull Leadership requires large GDP not just high GDPN

bull Leadership in banking and finance not just production

bull Leader should resist tendency for overvaluation of currency

bull Economy should be open to people trade ideas

bull Economy must be conducive to technical progress

Securing US Leadership after World War II

bull Post World War II reconstruction

bull Floating the dollar in 1971

bull Maturing of the dollar as a world currency

bull Facilitating export-led growth in Asia

International Economic Flows

Dollars in

bull Exports of goods and services

bull Transfers from foreigners

bull Profits received from foreign investments

bull Foreign investments in US

Dollars out

bull Imports of goods and services

bull Transfers to foreigners

bull Profits paid to foreign investors

bull US investments abroad

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Net Exports 1947Q1-2009Q4

Percent of GDP (current prices)

Per

cent

Year

US Trade Balance by Type of Product 1967 and 2006

Billions of dollars

1967 2006 Change

Goods and Services 36 -7693 -7729

Goods 44 -8605 -8649

Foods 04 -89 -93

Industrial supplies 01 -241 -242

Petroleum -21 -3024 -3003

Capital goods 74 -160 -234

Autos 04 -1493 -1497

Consumer goods -21 -3170 -3149

Other 03 -427 -430

Services -09 912 921

Why Trust in the Dollar

bull A large open economy to run payments deficits large enough to meet world currency needs

bull An independent responsible central bank -- the Federal Reserve

bull A large efficient commercial banking systembull Large deep and open capital marketsbull Relatively stable pricesbull A convertible currencybull A relatively stable exchange rate with other major

currenciesbull A track record demonstrating these characteristics

Challengers to US Leadership Past and Future

bull USSR (Russia)

bull Japan

bull European Union

bull Emerging Asia

Soviet EmpireRed states Communist governmentsOrange states Leaning communist

Securing US Leadership after World War II

bull Post World War II reconstruction

bull Floating the dollar in 1971

bull Maturing of the dollar as a world currency

bull Facilitating export-led growth in Asia

International Economic Flows

Dollars in

bull Exports of goods and services

bull Transfers from foreigners

bull Profits received from foreign investments

bull Foreign investments in US

Dollars out

bull Imports of goods and services

bull Transfers to foreigners

bull Profits paid to foreign investors

bull US investments abroad

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Net Exports 1947Q1-2009Q4

Percent of GDP (current prices)

Per

cent

Year

US Trade Balance by Type of Product 1967 and 2006

Billions of dollars

1967 2006 Change

Goods and Services 36 -7693 -7729

Goods 44 -8605 -8649

Foods 04 -89 -93

Industrial supplies 01 -241 -242

Petroleum -21 -3024 -3003

Capital goods 74 -160 -234

Autos 04 -1493 -1497

Consumer goods -21 -3170 -3149

Other 03 -427 -430

Services -09 912 921

Why Trust in the Dollar

bull A large open economy to run payments deficits large enough to meet world currency needs

bull An independent responsible central bank -- the Federal Reserve

bull A large efficient commercial banking systembull Large deep and open capital marketsbull Relatively stable pricesbull A convertible currencybull A relatively stable exchange rate with other major

currenciesbull A track record demonstrating these characteristics

Challengers to US Leadership Past and Future

bull USSR (Russia)

bull Japan

bull European Union

bull Emerging Asia

Soviet EmpireRed states Communist governmentsOrange states Leaning communist

International Economic Flows

Dollars in

bull Exports of goods and services

bull Transfers from foreigners

bull Profits received from foreign investments

bull Foreign investments in US

Dollars out

bull Imports of goods and services

bull Transfers to foreigners

bull Profits paid to foreign investors

bull US investments abroad

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Net Exports 1947Q1-2009Q4

Percent of GDP (current prices)

Per

cent

Year

US Trade Balance by Type of Product 1967 and 2006

Billions of dollars

1967 2006 Change

Goods and Services 36 -7693 -7729

Goods 44 -8605 -8649

Foods 04 -89 -93

Industrial supplies 01 -241 -242

Petroleum -21 -3024 -3003

Capital goods 74 -160 -234

Autos 04 -1493 -1497

Consumer goods -21 -3170 -3149

Other 03 -427 -430

Services -09 912 921

Why Trust in the Dollar

bull A large open economy to run payments deficits large enough to meet world currency needs

bull An independent responsible central bank -- the Federal Reserve

bull A large efficient commercial banking systembull Large deep and open capital marketsbull Relatively stable pricesbull A convertible currencybull A relatively stable exchange rate with other major

currenciesbull A track record demonstrating these characteristics

Challengers to US Leadership Past and Future

bull USSR (Russia)

bull Japan

bull European Union

bull Emerging Asia

Soviet EmpireRed states Communist governmentsOrange states Leaning communist

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Net Exports 1947Q1-2009Q4

Percent of GDP (current prices)

Per

cent

Year

US Trade Balance by Type of Product 1967 and 2006

Billions of dollars

1967 2006 Change

Goods and Services 36 -7693 -7729

Goods 44 -8605 -8649

Foods 04 -89 -93

Industrial supplies 01 -241 -242

Petroleum -21 -3024 -3003

Capital goods 74 -160 -234

Autos 04 -1493 -1497

Consumer goods -21 -3170 -3149

Other 03 -427 -430

Services -09 912 921

Why Trust in the Dollar

bull A large open economy to run payments deficits large enough to meet world currency needs

bull An independent responsible central bank -- the Federal Reserve

bull A large efficient commercial banking systembull Large deep and open capital marketsbull Relatively stable pricesbull A convertible currencybull A relatively stable exchange rate with other major

currenciesbull A track record demonstrating these characteristics

Challengers to US Leadership Past and Future

bull USSR (Russia)

bull Japan

bull European Union

bull Emerging Asia

Soviet EmpireRed states Communist governmentsOrange states Leaning communist

US Trade Balance by Type of Product 1967 and 2006

Billions of dollars

1967 2006 Change

Goods and Services 36 -7693 -7729

Goods 44 -8605 -8649

Foods 04 -89 -93

Industrial supplies 01 -241 -242

Petroleum -21 -3024 -3003

Capital goods 74 -160 -234

Autos 04 -1493 -1497

Consumer goods -21 -3170 -3149

Other 03 -427 -430

Services -09 912 921

Why Trust in the Dollar

bull A large open economy to run payments deficits large enough to meet world currency needs

bull An independent responsible central bank -- the Federal Reserve

bull A large efficient commercial banking systembull Large deep and open capital marketsbull Relatively stable pricesbull A convertible currencybull A relatively stable exchange rate with other major

currenciesbull A track record demonstrating these characteristics

Challengers to US Leadership Past and Future

bull USSR (Russia)

bull Japan

bull European Union

bull Emerging Asia

Soviet EmpireRed states Communist governmentsOrange states Leaning communist

Why Trust in the Dollar

bull A large open economy to run payments deficits large enough to meet world currency needs

bull An independent responsible central bank -- the Federal Reserve

bull A large efficient commercial banking systembull Large deep and open capital marketsbull Relatively stable pricesbull A convertible currencybull A relatively stable exchange rate with other major

currenciesbull A track record demonstrating these characteristics

Challengers to US Leadership Past and Future

bull USSR (Russia)

bull Japan

bull European Union

bull Emerging Asia

Soviet EmpireRed states Communist governmentsOrange states Leaning communist

Challengers to US Leadership Past and Future

bull USSR (Russia)

bull Japan

bull European Union

bull Emerging Asia

Soviet EmpireRed states Communist governmentsOrange states Leaning communist

Soviet EmpireRed states Communist governmentsOrange states Leaning communist

Real GDP per capita dollars

Ten highest in 2007

Country 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

Luxembourg 14945 22906 27359 43658 63392 77783

Austria 5573 14843 20902 26023 31574 36032

Netherlands 8840 17387 21030 24619 31927 34392

Denmark 8571 16223 19055 23939 30468 34292

Belgium 7529 14894 20327 24559 29692 33798

Sweden 9252 17003 19629 23454 27174 32962

Finland 5674 13266 17845 22794 26402 32486

United Kingdom 8859 13990 16681 21742 27032 32181

Spain 3527 11561 14742 19112 24945 31446

Germany 15364 20000 24599 29051 31306

EU average 6362 12478 16375 19594 23557 27275

Euro zone average 5374 13975 18441 22361 26814 29975

US 12990 19749 24537 30994 39241 42887

Real GDP billion of dollars

Ten largest in 2007

Country 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

Germany 1195 1566 1953 2388 2580

United Kingdom 444 778 939 1250 1609 1956

France 275 769 1086 1376 1670 1887

Italy 225 723 1038 1315 1567 1676

Spain 99 392 553 752 998 1272

Netherlands 89 227 297 368 508 570

Poland 184 290 274 419 558

Belgium 65 144 200 245 305 351

Sweden 65 137 163 202 242 298

Greece 106 163 172 219 297

EU total 1387 5169 7120 9212 11498 13469

Euro zone total 842 3830 5308 6860 8516 9685

US 1978 4050 5588 7753 11072 12921

Real GDP per capita dollars

Country 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

Singapore 6314 13399 21430 35424 44619

Hong Kong 8062 15605 25918 32550 43121

Japan 2636 13856 18820 26385 28341 30585

Taiwan 3123 6657 12432 21512 27005

Korea 3058 5468 11908 18597 23850

Thailand 1252 1921 2988 55197 7058 9406

China 796 1133 1929 4414 7868

Indonesia 1236 2205 3217 4151 5186

Philippines 1481 2621 3536 3386 3955 4791

India 807 1233 1429 2002 2687 3826

Weighted average 1164 1905 2565 4823 5374 7584

US 12990 19749 24537 30994 39241 42887

Real GDP billions of dollars

Country 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

China 653 1116 2215 5601 10401

India 299 683 979 1678 2698 4323

Japan 221 1446 2198 3259 3592 3898

Indonesia 151 332 585 888 1217

Korea 99 208 510 871 1151

Taiwan 45 117 252 476 616

Thailand 25 71 140 3047 437 612

Philippines 31 101 180 220 321 451

Hong Kong 32 79 147 217 301

Singapore 13 32 65 143 203

Total 576 3294 5382 11979 15243 23173

US 1978 4050 5588 7753 11072 12921

Indicators of International Trade and Finance

Foreign

Current exchange

Trade account reserves

balance balance + gold

$billion of GDP $billion

Asia

China 1829 49 2422

Hong Kong -411 83 256

India -1231 -17 275

Indonesia 214 12 66

Japan 868 33 1024

Korea 435 32 270

Malaysia 354 147 96

Singapore 259 184 188

Taiwan 139 93 353

Thailand 127 56 138

Europe

Austria -49 19 18

Denmark 145 34 77

France -672 -20 133

Germany 2082 52 181

Greece -420 -58 5

Netherlands 510 62 40

Russia 1498 43 439

Sweden 82 65 47

Switzerland 198 110 135

UK -1408 -18 67

US -6214 -33 131

Indicators of Scientific and Engineering Activity

China India Japan Korea US Germany

Researchers in RampD 2006 927 111 5568 4187 4663 3392

Techinicians in RampD 2006 86 580 587 1200

Science amp engineering students 43 25 21 32 19 47

RampD exp of GDP 2007 1 1 3 3 3 3

High-tech exports of manuf exports 2007 30 5 19 33 29 14

Scientific amp technical journal articles 2007 59714 18194 52896 18467 209695 44408

Patent applications - residents 2005 93485 4521 367960 122188 207867 48367

Patent applications - non-residents2005 80155 67696 38979 187957 12685

Trademark applications 2005 659148 85669 136050 123064 264510 80091

Personal computers per 1000 2000 159 45 3152 2379 5852 3360

per million people 2000 data for India

of tertiary level students 1987-1997 latest year available

Real GDP billion of dollars

Ten largest in 2007

Country 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

Germany 1195 1566 1953 2388 2580

United Kingdom 444 778 939 1250 1609 1956

France 275 769 1086 1376 1670 1887

Italy 225 723 1038 1315 1567 1676

Spain 99 392 553 752 998 1272

Netherlands 89 227 297 368 508 570

Poland 184 290 274 419 558

Belgium 65 144 200 245 305 351

Sweden 65 137 163 202 242 298

Greece 106 163 172 219 297

EU total 1387 5169 7120 9212 11498 13469

Euro zone total 842 3830 5308 6860 8516 9685

US 1978 4050 5588 7753 11072 12921

Real GDP per capita dollars

Country 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

Singapore 6314 13399 21430 35424 44619

Hong Kong 8062 15605 25918 32550 43121

Japan 2636 13856 18820 26385 28341 30585

Taiwan 3123 6657 12432 21512 27005

Korea 3058 5468 11908 18597 23850

Thailand 1252 1921 2988 55197 7058 9406

China 796 1133 1929 4414 7868

Indonesia 1236 2205 3217 4151 5186

Philippines 1481 2621 3536 3386 3955 4791

India 807 1233 1429 2002 2687 3826

Weighted average 1164 1905 2565 4823 5374 7584

US 12990 19749 24537 30994 39241 42887

Real GDP billions of dollars

Country 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

China 653 1116 2215 5601 10401

India 299 683 979 1678 2698 4323

Japan 221 1446 2198 3259 3592 3898

Indonesia 151 332 585 888 1217

Korea 99 208 510 871 1151

Taiwan 45 117 252 476 616

Thailand 25 71 140 3047 437 612

Philippines 31 101 180 220 321 451

Hong Kong 32 79 147 217 301

Singapore 13 32 65 143 203

Total 576 3294 5382 11979 15243 23173

US 1978 4050 5588 7753 11072 12921

Indicators of International Trade and Finance

Foreign

Current exchange

Trade account reserves

balance balance + gold

$billion of GDP $billion

Asia

China 1829 49 2422

Hong Kong -411 83 256

India -1231 -17 275

Indonesia 214 12 66

Japan 868 33 1024

Korea 435 32 270

Malaysia 354 147 96

Singapore 259 184 188

Taiwan 139 93 353

Thailand 127 56 138

Europe

Austria -49 19 18

Denmark 145 34 77

France -672 -20 133

Germany 2082 52 181

Greece -420 -58 5

Netherlands 510 62 40

Russia 1498 43 439

Sweden 82 65 47

Switzerland 198 110 135

UK -1408 -18 67

US -6214 -33 131

Indicators of Scientific and Engineering Activity

China India Japan Korea US Germany

Researchers in RampD 2006 927 111 5568 4187 4663 3392

Techinicians in RampD 2006 86 580 587 1200

Science amp engineering students 43 25 21 32 19 47

RampD exp of GDP 2007 1 1 3 3 3 3

High-tech exports of manuf exports 2007 30 5 19 33 29 14

Scientific amp technical journal articles 2007 59714 18194 52896 18467 209695 44408

Patent applications - residents 2005 93485 4521 367960 122188 207867 48367

Patent applications - non-residents2005 80155 67696 38979 187957 12685

Trademark applications 2005 659148 85669 136050 123064 264510 80091

Personal computers per 1000 2000 159 45 3152 2379 5852 3360

per million people 2000 data for India

of tertiary level students 1987-1997 latest year available

Real GDP per capita dollars

Country 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

Singapore 6314 13399 21430 35424 44619

Hong Kong 8062 15605 25918 32550 43121

Japan 2636 13856 18820 26385 28341 30585

Taiwan 3123 6657 12432 21512 27005

Korea 3058 5468 11908 18597 23850

Thailand 1252 1921 2988 55197 7058 9406

China 796 1133 1929 4414 7868

Indonesia 1236 2205 3217 4151 5186

Philippines 1481 2621 3536 3386 3955 4791

India 807 1233 1429 2002 2687 3826

Weighted average 1164 1905 2565 4823 5374 7584

US 12990 19749 24537 30994 39241 42887

Real GDP billions of dollars

Country 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

China 653 1116 2215 5601 10401

India 299 683 979 1678 2698 4323

Japan 221 1446 2198 3259 3592 3898

Indonesia 151 332 585 888 1217

Korea 99 208 510 871 1151

Taiwan 45 117 252 476 616

Thailand 25 71 140 3047 437 612

Philippines 31 101 180 220 321 451

Hong Kong 32 79 147 217 301

Singapore 13 32 65 143 203

Total 576 3294 5382 11979 15243 23173

US 1978 4050 5588 7753 11072 12921

Indicators of International Trade and Finance

Foreign

Current exchange

Trade account reserves

balance balance + gold

$billion of GDP $billion

Asia

China 1829 49 2422

Hong Kong -411 83 256

India -1231 -17 275

Indonesia 214 12 66

Japan 868 33 1024

Korea 435 32 270

Malaysia 354 147 96

Singapore 259 184 188

Taiwan 139 93 353

Thailand 127 56 138

Europe

Austria -49 19 18

Denmark 145 34 77

France -672 -20 133

Germany 2082 52 181

Greece -420 -58 5

Netherlands 510 62 40

Russia 1498 43 439

Sweden 82 65 47

Switzerland 198 110 135

UK -1408 -18 67

US -6214 -33 131

Indicators of Scientific and Engineering Activity

China India Japan Korea US Germany

Researchers in RampD 2006 927 111 5568 4187 4663 3392

Techinicians in RampD 2006 86 580 587 1200

Science amp engineering students 43 25 21 32 19 47

RampD exp of GDP 2007 1 1 3 3 3 3

High-tech exports of manuf exports 2007 30 5 19 33 29 14

Scientific amp technical journal articles 2007 59714 18194 52896 18467 209695 44408

Patent applications - residents 2005 93485 4521 367960 122188 207867 48367

Patent applications - non-residents2005 80155 67696 38979 187957 12685

Trademark applications 2005 659148 85669 136050 123064 264510 80091

Personal computers per 1000 2000 159 45 3152 2379 5852 3360

per million people 2000 data for India

of tertiary level students 1987-1997 latest year available

Real GDP billions of dollars

Country 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

China 653 1116 2215 5601 10401

India 299 683 979 1678 2698 4323

Japan 221 1446 2198 3259 3592 3898

Indonesia 151 332 585 888 1217

Korea 99 208 510 871 1151

Taiwan 45 117 252 476 616

Thailand 25 71 140 3047 437 612

Philippines 31 101 180 220 321 451

Hong Kong 32 79 147 217 301

Singapore 13 32 65 143 203

Total 576 3294 5382 11979 15243 23173

US 1978 4050 5588 7753 11072 12921

Indicators of International Trade and Finance

Foreign

Current exchange

Trade account reserves

balance balance + gold

$billion of GDP $billion

Asia

China 1829 49 2422

Hong Kong -411 83 256

India -1231 -17 275

Indonesia 214 12 66

Japan 868 33 1024

Korea 435 32 270

Malaysia 354 147 96

Singapore 259 184 188

Taiwan 139 93 353

Thailand 127 56 138

Europe

Austria -49 19 18

Denmark 145 34 77

France -672 -20 133

Germany 2082 52 181

Greece -420 -58 5

Netherlands 510 62 40

Russia 1498 43 439

Sweden 82 65 47

Switzerland 198 110 135

UK -1408 -18 67

US -6214 -33 131

Indicators of Scientific and Engineering Activity

China India Japan Korea US Germany

Researchers in RampD 2006 927 111 5568 4187 4663 3392

Techinicians in RampD 2006 86 580 587 1200

Science amp engineering students 43 25 21 32 19 47

RampD exp of GDP 2007 1 1 3 3 3 3

High-tech exports of manuf exports 2007 30 5 19 33 29 14

Scientific amp technical journal articles 2007 59714 18194 52896 18467 209695 44408

Patent applications - residents 2005 93485 4521 367960 122188 207867 48367

Patent applications - non-residents2005 80155 67696 38979 187957 12685

Trademark applications 2005 659148 85669 136050 123064 264510 80091

Personal computers per 1000 2000 159 45 3152 2379 5852 3360

per million people 2000 data for India

of tertiary level students 1987-1997 latest year available

Indicators of International Trade and Finance

Foreign

Current exchange

Trade account reserves

balance balance + gold

$billion of GDP $billion

Asia

China 1829 49 2422

Hong Kong -411 83 256

India -1231 -17 275

Indonesia 214 12 66

Japan 868 33 1024

Korea 435 32 270

Malaysia 354 147 96

Singapore 259 184 188

Taiwan 139 93 353

Thailand 127 56 138

Europe

Austria -49 19 18

Denmark 145 34 77

France -672 -20 133

Germany 2082 52 181

Greece -420 -58 5

Netherlands 510 62 40

Russia 1498 43 439

Sweden 82 65 47

Switzerland 198 110 135

UK -1408 -18 67

US -6214 -33 131

Indicators of Scientific and Engineering Activity

China India Japan Korea US Germany

Researchers in RampD 2006 927 111 5568 4187 4663 3392

Techinicians in RampD 2006 86 580 587 1200

Science amp engineering students 43 25 21 32 19 47

RampD exp of GDP 2007 1 1 3 3 3 3

High-tech exports of manuf exports 2007 30 5 19 33 29 14

Scientific amp technical journal articles 2007 59714 18194 52896 18467 209695 44408

Patent applications - residents 2005 93485 4521 367960 122188 207867 48367

Patent applications - non-residents2005 80155 67696 38979 187957 12685

Trademark applications 2005 659148 85669 136050 123064 264510 80091

Personal computers per 1000 2000 159 45 3152 2379 5852 3360

per million people 2000 data for India

of tertiary level students 1987-1997 latest year available

Indicators of Scientific and Engineering Activity

China India Japan Korea US Germany

Researchers in RampD 2006 927 111 5568 4187 4663 3392

Techinicians in RampD 2006 86 580 587 1200

Science amp engineering students 43 25 21 32 19 47

RampD exp of GDP 2007 1 1 3 3 3 3

High-tech exports of manuf exports 2007 30 5 19 33 29 14

Scientific amp technical journal articles 2007 59714 18194 52896 18467 209695 44408

Patent applications - residents 2005 93485 4521 367960 122188 207867 48367

Patent applications - non-residents2005 80155 67696 38979 187957 12685

Trademark applications 2005 659148 85669 136050 123064 264510 80091

Personal computers per 1000 2000 159 45 3152 2379 5852 3360

per million people 2000 data for India

of tertiary level students 1987-1997 latest year available

• Can the US Continue as World Leader
• Slide 2
• Slide 3
• Slide 4
• Slide 5
• Slide 6
• Securing US Leadership after World War II
• International Economic Flows
• Slide 9
• Slide 10
• Slide 11
• Why Trust in the Dollar
• Challengers to US Leadership Past and Future
• Soviet Empire Red states Communist governments Orange states Leaning communist
• Slide 15
• Slide 16
• Slide 17
• Slide 18
• Slide 19
• Slide 20
• Slide 21