CAMx SIMULATIONS OF MIDDLE-EAST TRANSBOUNDARY

TRANSPORT BY USE OF RAMS AND MM5 INPUT

Erez WeinrothErez Weinroth1,21,2, Shoukri Kasakseh, Shoukri Kasakseh1,31,3

Robert BornsteinRobert Bornstein11 ((pblmodel@hotmail.compblmodel@hotmail.com))

11San Jose State Univ. (SJSU), San Jose, CASan Jose State Univ. (SJSU), San Jose, CA22Hebrew Univ. Jerusalem, Israel (HUJI)Hebrew Univ. Jerusalem, Israel (HUJI)

33Applied Research Institute Jerusalem (ARIJ), Applied Research Institute Jerusalem (ARIJ),

Bethlehem, West Bank Bethlehem, West Bank

presented at the presented at the

GMU Modeling Conference, July 2007GMU Modeling Conference, July 2007

OutlineOutline

Project backgroundProject background Intro to Mid-East metIntro to Mid-East met MethodologyMethodology Results:Results:

Synoptic-scale patterns patterns Mesoscale factors (obs) factors (obs) Mesoscale simulations

RAMS and MM5RAMS and MM5 CAMxCAMx

Conclusions & future workConclusions & future work

BackgroundBackground

USAID-MERCUSAID-MERC project (2000-2006) project (2000-2006) Scientists Scientists from from Palestine, Israel, &Palestine, Israel, & USAUSA Objectives accomplished:Objectives accomplished:

InstallationInstallation of environmental monitoring stations in of environmental monitoring stations in West Bank and GazaWest Bank and Gaza

PreparationPreparation of environmental databases on SJSU web of environmental databases on SJSU web page page

Field campaignsField campaigns during periods of poor air quality during periods of poor air quality Application Application of numerical models for planningof numerical models for planning

RAMS & MM5RAMS & MM5 meso-met meso-met CAMxCAMx photochemical air-quality photochemical air-quality

3 4 .5 3 4 .8 3 5 .1 3 5 .4

L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )

O 3 s ta tio n lo ca tio n s

3 1 .1

3 1 .4

3 1 .7

3 2 .0

3 2 .3

3 2 .6

3 2 .9

LA

TIT

UD

E (

Deg

N)

12 3

4

56

7

8

9

1 0

11 1 21 31 4

1 5

1 6

5 0 m2 5 0 m7 5 0 m1 0 0 0 m

Topo-heights & O3 sitesMeso-met sites

3 4 .2 3 4 .6 3 5 .0 3 5 .4 3 5 .8

L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )

3 0 .2

3 0 .6

3 1 .0

3 1 .4

3 1 .8

3 2 .2

3 2 .6

3 3 .0

LA

TIT

UD

E (

Deg

N)

W est Bank

G aza

Tel Aviv

Jerusalem

H aifa

S inai

Jordan

Carmel and Galil

Sh

om

ron

an

d J

ud

ea

Israel

• Black Sea dominated by 700 hPa Low-p system inland lobe of Azores H thus split (W & E segments) • Protrusion from W-segment penetrates inland to

Western Saudi Arabia

IMS 700 hPa, July 29, 0000 UTC

*

H

H

Med

BlackSea

Sfc Persian-through thermal-Low protrusion (1002 hPa contour)

continued to expand westward

Protrusion from high (1008 hPa contour) retreated

IMS SFC Obs, July 31, 0000 UTC

LH

*Med1002

1008

Black Sea

Turkey

3 m /s

5 0 m2 5 0 m7 5 0 m1 0 0 0 m

Med

iterr

anea

n S e

a

3 4 .5 3 4 .8 3 5 .1 3 5 .4

L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )

1 0 m o b s sp eed (m /s) & O 3 a t 0 3 0 0 L S T o r 0 0 0 0 U T C o n 1 A u g

3 1 .5

3 1 .8

3 2 .1

3 2 .4

3 2 .7

3 3L

AT

ITU

DE

(D

eg N

)

H

Flow Dir: weak down-slope off coastal-mountains atCoastal plain: offshore (to W) from W-facing slopesHaifa Pen. (square): offshore (to E ) from E-facing slopesInland sites: directed inland (to E) from E-facing slopes

Low-O3 generally <40 ppb)Haifa still at 51 ppb

Night obs of sfc flow: 3-AM LST (00 UTC)

L

L

H

3 4 .5 3 4 .8 3 5 .1 3 5 .4

L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )

1 0 m o b s sp eed (m /s) a t 1 2 0 0 L S T o r 0 9 0 0 U T C o n 1 A u g

3 1 .5

3 1 .8

3 2 .1

3 2 .4

3 2 .7

3 3L

AT

ITU

DE

(D

eg N

)

3 m /s

5 0 m2 5 0 m7 5 0 m1 0 0 0 m

Med

iterr

anea

n S e

a

H

Winds: Reversed Stronger: up 6 m s-1

Coastal plain: Onshore/upwind, from SWInland sites: Channeling (from W) in corridor (box) from Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem area (at Modiin site). Higher daytime O3

max at Mappil, 66 ppb 2nd max at Modiin, 63 ppb

Day Obs: 1200 NOON LST

L

H

H

L

RAMSRAMS ConfigurationConfiguration 3 Grid Spacings3 Grid Spacings

20 km20 km over E-Med for over E-Med for background synoptic background synoptic forcingforcing

5 km5 km over Israel, West over Israel, West Bank, and Gaza for meso-Bank, and Gaza for meso-scale sea/land & mt/valley scale sea/land & mt/valley flowsflows

1.25 km1.25 km for Tel Aviv- for Tel Aviv-Jerusalem transport-Jerusalem transport-corridorcorridor

Domain GPs: 45 x 45, 74 x 54, Domain GPs: 45 x 45, 74 x 54, and 146 x 218 for Domains 1-3and 146 x 218 for Domains 1-3

24 vertical levels24 vertical levels 11stst full grid cell at 125 m full grid cell at 125 m Topography: GTOPO30 Topography: GTOPO30 ECMWF for IC and BCECMWF for IC and BC Model run at Model run at HUJIHUJI Simulations start: 00 UTC on Simulations start: 00 UTC on

1 August 97 & end 72-h later1 August 97 & end 72-h later

900 Km

270 Km

370 Km

180 Km

270 Km

900 Km

MM5 ConfigurationMM5 Configuration

Version 3.7Version 3.7 3 domains 3 domains

15, 5, 15, 5, 1.67 km1.67 km Grid Spacings Grid Spacings 59 x 61, 55 x 76, 58 x 85 Grid 59 x 61, 55 x 76, 58 x 85 Grid

PointsPoints 32 32 σσ--levelslevels

up to 100 mbup to 100 mb first full first full σσ--level at 19 mlevel at 19 m

Lambert-conformal map projection Lambert-conformal map projection (suitable for mid lat regions) (suitable for mid lat regions)

Two-way nesting Two-way nesting 5-layer soil-model5-layer soil-model Gayno-Seaman PBLGayno-Seaman PBL Simulations Simulations

Start: 00 UTC, 29 JulyStart: 00 UTC, 29 July End: 00 UTC, 3 Aug End: 00 UTC, 3 Aug

Single CPU , LINUX Single CPU , LINUX (SJSU-Lightning)(SJSU-Lightning)

• ECMWF-pressures correctly captured movements of large- scale surface pressure-systems

• Thus ECMWF provided good SFC IC/BC for RAMS & MM5

LH *

L

H

Obs (below); 7 AM, 1 Aug: all down-slope (off-shore, except where inland-direct at inland sites)

RAMS 7 AM SFC WINDS (ABOVE) Off coast: Southwesterly (no obs) Coastal plain: Downslope/offshore from SSE Inland: Inland directed Southern: from NW vs. from W in obs

RAMS

3 4 .2 3 4 .6 3 5 .0 3 5 .4 3 5 .8

L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )

3 0 .2

3 0 .6

3 1 .0

3 1 .4

3 1 .8

3 2 .2

3 2 .6

3 3 .0

LA

TIT

UD

E (

Deg

N)

3 m /s

5 0 m2 5 0 m7 5 0 m1 0 0 0 m

Obs, 7 AM, 1 Aug:Obs, 7 AM, 1 Aug: all down-slope, all down-slope, off-shore (except where inland-direct at off-shore (except where inland-direct at

inland sites)inland sites), reproduced from previous , reproduced from previous slideslide

MM5 7 AM sfc winds (above) Off coast: onshore from W (like ECMWF; no obs) Coastal plain: downslope/offshore from SSE

(in obs & RAMS; can’t be in coarser ECMWF) Inland sites: inland directed (obs & ECMWF) Southern: obs&MM5 are westerly; RAMS was NW

3 4 .2 3 4 .6 3 5 .0 3 5 .4 3 5 .8

L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )

3 0 .2

3 0 .6

3 1 .0

3 1 .4

3 1 .8

3 2 .2

3 2 .6

3 3 .0

LA

TIT

UD

E (

Deg

N)

3 m /s

5 0 m2 5 0 m7 5 0 m1 0 0 0 m

Obs, 1 PM, 1 Aug: All westerly/onshore flow

RAMS 1 PM sfc winds (above)•Off coast: Onshore from SW (no obs??) Coastal plain: upslope/onshore (in obs, but can’t be in coarser ECMWF-results) Inland sites: inland directed (in obs, MM5, & ECMWF) South (circle): NW in RAMS, as in obs

RAMS

3 4 .2 3 4 .6 3 5 .0 3 5 .4 3 5 .8

L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )

3 0 .2

3 0 .6

3 1 .0

3 1 .4

3 1 .8

3 2 .2

3 2 .6

3 3 .0

LA

TIT

UD

E (

Deg

N)

3 m /s

5 0 m2 5 0 m7 5 0 m1 0 0 0 m

Obs, 1 PM on 1 Aug: All westerly/onshore flow

MM5 1 PM sfc winds (above) Off coast: onshore from W (like ECMWF; no obs)

Coastal plain: upslope/onshore (in obs & RAMS)

Inland sites: inland directed (in obs & RAMS

South (circle): NW (in RAMS & Obs)3 4 .2 3 4 .6 3 5 .0 3 5 .4 3 5 .8

L O N G IT U D E (D eg E )

3 0 .2

3 0 .6

3 1 .0

3 1 .4

3 1 .8

3 2 .2

3 2 .6

3 3 .0

LA

TIT

UD

E (

Deg

N)

3 m /s

5 0 m2 5 0 m7 5 0 m1 0 0 0 m

Mid-east Obs vs. MM5: 2 m tempMid-east Obs vs. MM5: 2 m temp (Kasakech ’06 (Kasakech ’06 AMS)AMS)

July 29 August 1 August 2

July 31 Aug 1 Aug2

Standard-MM5 summer night-time min-T,

But lower input deep-soil temp better 2-m T results better winds better O3

obs

Run 1

MM5:Run 4

Obs

Run 4:ReducedSeep-soil T

First 2 days show GC/Syn trend not in MM5, as MM5-runs had no analysis nudging

Obs vs. MM5: V (m/s)Obs vs. MM5: V (m/s)

July 31 August 1 August 2

OBS

Run 3Note: non-reproduced synoptic trend in max-speed

Emission Inventory: 1997-8Emission Inventory: 1997-8

1515 Large StationaryLarge Stationary (point) sources (58% (point) sources (58% fuel consumption)fuel consumption)

400400 Medium StationaryMedium Stationary (point) sources (point) sources (7%)(7%)

Small StationarySmall Stationary (area) sources (12%) (area) sources (12%) SolventsSolvents (area) sources (area) sources Biogenic StationaryBiogenic Stationary (area) sources (area) sources

(isoprene and monoterpene)(isoprene and monoterpene) Mobile (area) sourcesMobile (area) sources, both ground based , both ground based

and aerial (22%)and aerial (22%)

Jerusalem

Flight Path

0

0-20

20-40

40-60

60-70

70-80

80-90

90-95

95-105

105-120

O3 ppb

1 Aug, 1500 LST

RAMS/CAMx (left) ORAMS/CAMx (left) O33 vs. airborne Obs (right) at 300 m: vs. airborne Obs (right) at 300 m:

> Secondary-max: over Jerusalem; in obs (but underestimated by 15%) > Secondary-max: over Jerusalem; in obs (but underestimated by 15%) from coastal N-S highway sources from coastal N-S highway sources

> Primary-max: found in Jordan (no obs) from Hadera power-plant > Primary-max: found in Jordan (no obs) from Hadera power-plant

Irbid,Jordan

Hadera Power Plant

.

All emission sources

1.8.97 15:00

0

0-20

20-40

40-60

60-70

70-80

80-90

90-95

95-105

105-120

LegendO3 ppb

All industry sources Without industry sources

1.8.97 15:00 1.8.97 15:00

> All emission sources (see below, left & previous slide)> All emission sources (see below, left & previous slide)

> All industry sources (see below center)> All industry sources (see below center)

> Main (tall-stack) industry sources> Main (tall-stack) industry sources

> Medium and small (low-stack) industry> Medium and small (low-stack) industry

> Without Industry (only Vehicles, Solvents & Vegetation) (below > Without Industry (only Vehicles, Solvents & Vegetation) (below right)right)

> Vehicles only > Vehicles only

> Without vehicles (only all-Industry, Solvents & Vegetation)> Without vehicles (only all-Industry, Solvents & Vegetation)

> Without emissions (only IC and BC)> Without emissions (only IC and BC)

300 m CAMx ozone from 3 of the 8Emission Input Scenarios (below)

1.8.97 15:00

Ozone Peaks for all 8 Scenarios: 1 Aug Ozone Peaks for all 8 Scenarios: 1 Aug ‘97‘97

SourceSourceOO3 3 PeakPeak(ppb)(ppb)

Comparison to “All Sources” Peak Comparison to “All Sources” Peak in %in %

(discounting initial 45 ppb)(discounting initial 45 ppb)

All sourcesAll sources 116116 100%100%

Without Without emissionsemissions

5656 15%15%

Industry lowIndustry low 5858 18%18%

All industryAll industry 9898 75%75%

Industry largeIndustry large 9797 73%73%

Without IndustryWithout Industry 8282 51%51%

Without vehiclesWithout vehicles 103103 81%81%

VehiclesVehicles 8080 49%49%

SUMMARY (1 of 2)SUMMARY (1 of 2) Synoptic-obs during a summer sfc Persian-Trough period Synoptic-obs during a summer sfc Persian-Trough period

700 hPa 700 hPa LL moved moved southwardsouthward over area over area

Azores High retreatedAzores High retreated Sfc-LSfc-L moved to moved to WW reduced-subsidence from high reduced-subsidence from high

inversion-base raised inversion-base raised Persian sfc-L was Persian sfc-L was N of (not over) areaN of (not over) area

typical (but, not episode) sfc Otypical (but, not episode) sfc O33-levels -levels Meso-obs showedMeso-obs showed

Meso (daytime Mt/sea + nighttime valley/land) Meso (daytime Mt/sea + nighttime valley/land) breezes breezes JerusalemJerusalem OO33-max: from inland-transport of coastal -max: from inland-transport of coastal

auto-emissionsauto-emissions

SUMMARY (cont.)SUMMARY (cont.)

Model-results showedModel-results showed RAMS & MM5RAMS & MM5 reproduced surface-flows reproduced surface-flows

Daytime sea breeze and upslope flowsDaytime sea breeze and upslope flows Nighttime land breeze and downslope flowsNighttime land breeze and downslope flows

CAMx/RAMSCAMx/RAMS Reproduced obs Reproduced obs JerusalemJerusalem OO33-max (due to coastal-autos)-max (due to coastal-autos) Showed even larger (previously-unknown) max over Showed even larger (previously-unknown) max over

Jordan Jordan (due to Hadera power-plant emissions) (due to Hadera power-plant emissions)

CURRENT & FUTURE WORKCURRENT & FUTURE WORK

Improved MM5-simulationsImproved MM5-simulations FDDA analysis nudging to better FDDA analysis nudging to better

capture synoptic trendscapture synoptic trends Move to urbanized (next talk): uMM5 & uWRF Move to urbanized (next talk): uMM5 & uWRF

Compare RAMS & MM5Compare RAMS & MM5 Inputs to CAMxInputs to CAMx Verify sfc & PBL transport-patternsVerify sfc & PBL transport-patterns

New USAID/MERC obs & modeling projects withNew USAID/MERC obs & modeling projects with Jordan (started June 2007)Jordan (started June 2007) Lebanon (pre-proposal invited for Dec 2007)Lebanon (pre-proposal invited for Dec 2007)

Key ReferencesKey References Matveev, V., et al.,Matveev, V., et al., 2002: Long-range trans-portation of 2002: Long-range trans-portation of

air pollutants from Europe to Israel. air pollutants from Europe to Israel. Isr. J. Earth Sci.Isr. J. Earth Sci., , 5151, , 17-28.17-28.

Doron, E., and J. Neumann,Doron, E., and J. Neumann, 1977: Land and mountain 1977: Land and mountain breezes with special attention to breezes with special attention to Israel’s Mediterranean Israel’s Mediterranean coastal plain. coastal plain. Israel Meteor. Israel Meteor. Res. PapersRes. Papers, , 11, 109-122., 109-122.

Dayan, U., and L. Koch,Dayan, U., and L. Koch, 1996: Ozone concentration 1996: Ozone concentration profiles in the LA Basin – A possible similarity in the profiles in the LA Basin – A possible similarity in the build-up mechanism of inland surface ozone in Israel. build-up mechanism of inland surface ozone in Israel. JAMJAM, , 3535, 1085-90., 1085-90.

Ranmar, D., et al.,Ranmar, D., et al., 2002: Impact of coastal 2002: Impact of coastal transportation emissions on inland air pollution over transportation emissions on inland air pollution over Israel: utilizing numerical simulations, airborne Israel: utilizing numerical simulations, airborne measurements, and synoptic analyses. measurements, and synoptic analyses. JGRJGR, , 107107..

Weinroth, E.,Weinroth, E., 2004: RAMS/CAMx modeling. Ph.D. 2004: RAMS/CAMx modeling. Ph.D. dissertation, HUJI, 127 pp.dissertation, HUJI, 127 pp.

Thanks… Thanks…

Questions ?Questions ?