Cameron WakeCarbon Solutions New England

Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, & Space (EOS)University of New Hampshire

Twitter: @TheClimateDr

6 Dec 2012US Green Building Council

NH Chapter Annual Meeting

Its Not Oil and Water:Blending Climate Solutions &

Sustainable Development

Were You Ready for the Storm?

NASA Earth Observatory Image 30 October 2011

Were You Ready for the Storm?

“Although they produce distinct types of challenges, climate change, energy security, and economic stability are inextricably linked.”

http://www.defense.gov/qdr/

Quadrennial Defense Review 2011

www.climate.gov

Mauna Loa, Hawaii CO2 Record 1958 - 2012

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/#mlo_data

Mauna Loa, Hawaii CO2 Record 1958 - 2012

200

400

600

800

1000

0100,000200,000300,000400,000

carb

on

dio

xid

e (

ppm

v)

Years Before 2100 AD

Vostok Ice Core

Vostok CO2 Record

IPCC 2001

Current

Clean Energy & Efficiency

Business as Usual

National Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions: 1950-2008

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/

Arctic Sea Ice Extent 18 Sept. 2012

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

Global Temperature 1880-2010(meteorological stations)

Burakowski et al., 2008, JGR

Northeast Winter Temperature Trends 1895-2008

Burakowski et al., 2008, JGR

Northeast Winter Temperature Trends 1965-2008

Durham, NH Lawrence, MA

4 Inch Precipitation Events by Decade 1948 - 2007

Costs from Presidentially Declared DisastersAnd Emergency Declarations in NH

Relative Sea Level Rise 1856 - 2011

Nantucket, MA 18 Apr 2007

Saco. Maine 17 Apr 2007

Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment

• Collaboration between Union of Concerned Scientists and 50 independent scientists

• Geographic ScopeNine Northeast states, from Maine to Pennsylvania

• Peer ReviewClimate Dynamics, 200714 papers in Adaptation and

Mitigation of Climate Change, 2008

www.climatechoices.org

Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast:Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios

Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast:Rising Annual Temperatures

2oF warming since 1970

Higher: 6.5-12.5oF

Lower: 3.5-6.5oF

Summer heat index:How hot summers will “feel” in

New Hampshire

Da

ys p

er y

ear

ove

r 90

oF

Extreme Precipitation Events Increase

• Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent across the Northeast

• Under both emissions scenarios-rainfall is expected to become more intense-periods of heavy rainfall are expected to become more frequent

credit: Associated Press

Bridge over Axe Handle Brook, Rochester, NHMay 2006.

Vulnerability of Ski Resorts to Climate Change

Higher Emissions

0

16

32

47

63

79

Sea

Leve

l Cha

nge

(inch

es)

8

24

40

55

71

Projection of Sea Level Rise from 1990 to 2100

Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. PNAS 106, 21527–21532.

Portsmouth NH

7 feet storm surge 5 feet SLR12 feet flood height

Cameron WakeElizabeth BurakowskiEric KelseyCarbon Solutions New EnglandInstitute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and SpaceUniversity of New Hampshire

Katharine HayhoeAnne StonerTexas Tech University

Chris WatsonEllen DouglasUniv. of Massachussets Boston

http://CarbonSolutionsNE.org

NH Climate Action Plan

More info at: http://CarbonSolutionsNE.org

• One of the largest, most diverse collections of leading NH citizens

• Promotes growth of new jobs and renewable energy development

• Reduces energy costs

• Identifies 67 recommended actions buildingselectricity generation,transportation & land usenatural resourcesgovernment actionadaptation

• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions44% below 2005 levels by 202586% below 2005 levels by 2050

Overarching Strategies to Achieve Goals

1. Maximize energy efficiency in buildings & transportation

2. Increase renewable & low-emitting heat & electric power sources

3. Protect our natural resources to enhance the amount of carbon sequestration

4. Develop an integrated education, outreach and workforce training program

5. Develop plans to adapt to existing and potential climate change

New Hampshire Climate Action Plan (March 2009)

New Hampshire Economic Benefits vs Avoided CO2e Emissions in 2025

Cumulative Costs – NH Residential Building Renovations

NH Gross State Products Vs. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Stanford Social Innovation Review, Fall 2012

Percentage of Americans who believe anthropogenic global warming has already begun, according to their political party identification

Were You Ready for the Storm?

Satellite image of Hurricane Sandy, 28 Oct 2012. NASA image.

Were You Ready for the Storm?