Calming the perfect rhino poaching storm

Sam Ferreira

Forum on China–Africa Cooperation Protea Hotel, Kruger Gate, 1 December 2015

Markus Hofmeyr

• Ecosystem engineers – Grazing lawns Cromsigt & te Beest 2014

– Shrub-land structure Cowling et al. 2010

– Restoring ecological roles Ferreira et al. 2012

• Enabling engineers – One reason why people visit parks Sebele 2010

– Revenue stream for protected areas Ferreira et al. 2012

• Key challenges – Poaching degrade rhino-associated values Knight 2014

– Neighbouring communities benefit little from rhinos Child 2012

– The business of rhinos benefit a few, alienate many Humphreys & Smith 2014

– Uncertainties of risks and benefits Ferreira et al. 2014

Cathy Greaver

Ownership White rhino Black rhino

Private land 4531 446

SANParks 10605 775

Provincial 3644 695

Totals 18780 1916

Sam Ferreira

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Nu

mb

er

of

rhin

os White rhino

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Nu

mb

er

of

rhin

os Black rhino

8619 (8001-9290)

309 (249-371)

A continental perspective Country Number

South Africa 18933

Namibia 524

Kenya 394

Zimbabwe 284

Botswana 185

Swaziland 84

Zambia 10

Uganda 14

Mozambique 1

Country Number

South Africa 2068

Namibia 1750

Kenya 631

Zimbabwe 424

Botswana 9

Tanzania 127

Swaziland 18

Zambia 27

Malawi 26

Mozambique 0 ?

Angola 1 ?

Black Rhino Numbers

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

White Rhino Numbers

5000

7000

9000

11000

13000

15000

17000

19000

21000

23000

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

5,080

(2012)

20,430

(2012)

Mike Knight

Mike Knight

Conservationists applied best practice management

Pioneers saw value in what they were doing

Large protected areas provided recovery

Innovative approaches provided expansion

Legal incentives provided more areas

Most values of rhinos were recognized

Sam Ferreira

6 ECI

• 3 incursions per day

• 12 groups in the Park any time

• 4300 poachers in the Park last year

• 111 contacts

• 77 sightings

• 1403 incidents

7 ECI

The perfect rhino poaching storm The changing context

• Long histories of culture and trade

• Inelastic demand

• High profit potential

• Inadequate enforcement

• unclear property rights

• human-wildlife conflict disincentives

Global economic processes with local effects

Large-scale transnational organized crime

Conservation legacy of only a few elite benefiting

Konrad 2012

Sam Ferreira

Global processes and local effects

Supply

sourced largely from South Africa

End users market not

within South African control

Syndicated Crime

Greed Poverty

Demand

Environmental Assets

Illicit wildlife trade

Wildlife Trafficking

Alienated people Inequality

Social injustice

?????? Inequality

Social injustice

Sam Ferreira

International and National Collaboration and Cooperation

AN INTEGRATED APPROACH FOR SANPARKS

The 2015 Reality

Sam Ferreira

Compulsory Interventions The philosophy of protecting rhinos

Strategic Framework Fortress conservation through protection

Johan Jooste

Zones

Alliances

Technology

Intelligence

Detect Acquire Neutralise

Command Participate

“Technoing” the Fortress Technology force multipliers

Direction Finding Unit

Direction Finding Antenna

GPS Module

Operation & Maintenance Terminal

Serial Interface

Accumulation Battery

Inverter

Power Supply Unit

A5 Kc CalculatorInterception unit

GSM Omnidirectional receiving antenna

Uplink Downlink

Direction Finding Unit

Direction Finding Antenna

GPS Module

Operation & Maintenance Terminal

Serial Interface

Accumulation Battery

Inverter

Power Supply Unit

A5 Kc CalculatorInterception unit

GSM Omnidirectional receiving antenna

Uplink Downlink

Electronic Fence

Mobile Phone Tracking

Seismic Fence

Control CentreOperational

Control Centre

Seismic Sensor

Aerial Surveillance Communications Tracking

Monitored Fence

Informing the Fortress

Information Human - Techno

Grading Rumours - Fact

Intelligence

Analyses

Actionable Operational-Tactical-Strategic

Response Investigate-Criminal-Civil

Poaching risks Interdiction patrols

Poacher Tactics Optimal pursuit

strategies

Kingpins Social networks

Search and Arrest Hotspot Localities

Spatially Predictable

Temporally Un-predictable Temporally Un-predictable

Spatially Un-predictable

Fear

Fear

Largely bypassing intelligence cycles

Intelligence Cycle

© Margo Vlamings

Mo

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Nkomazi Interest Group

Seism

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The IPZ Makes Use of Various Integrated TECH-INT Enablers

Rapid Response Rangers

Zoning the Fortress IPZ - Intensive Protection Zone

Kruger is surrounded by Strategic Partners

• Urban & Rural Communities • Private & Provincial Reserves • Hotels, Lodges & Resorts • Informal Settlements • Farms & Businesses

Kruger could be cleared from the outside

17

Partnering the Fortress Inclusive approach

JOINT OPERATIONS CENTRE

SANDF SAPS

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Spe

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Ran

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ion

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LLEAPA - LOWVELD LEBOMBO ENVIRONMENTAL ASSET PROTECTION ALLIANCE

Trai

ls R

ange

rs

Established Partnerships LLEAPA – Lowveld Lebombo Environmental Asset Protection Alliance

19

Nxanatseni North & South

CPZ Composite Protection Zone

Cross-border co-operation and local community involvement Rhino guardian approaches

Marula North JPZ Joint Protection Zone

Depend on human intelligence and partner communication

Marula South IPZ

Intensive Protection Zone Use of various Integrated technology-intelligence enablers

COMPULSORY INTERVENTIONS PROTECTING THE RHINO ASSET – TACTICALLY PRO-ACTIVE

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Other Parks and Protected Areas

71%

26%

3%

Basic administrative

and infrastructural

needs and funding

Technology benefits

and risks Ferreira & Hofmeyr, Unpublished data

Rhin

os

Dete

ct

Techno

Aerial

Hum

an

Info

• Ranger well-being – People power are key – Ranger support – Operation Relax – Ranger to soldier – Training

• Exercise “Brave Heart” – Career and learning path

• SAWC - Initiated by the SHR

• 4.5 million rand

• Horn stock pile

– Protection risk – Logistic limitations

• Financial sustainability

The realized risks of being militaristic

Johan Jooste

Sam Ferreira

The importance of robust communication? Beyond media

Number of rhinos

Number poached

Poachers caught

Poachers killed

Price of horn

Millions of users

Producers On the ground poachers

Consumers Asian horn users

Sup

ply

ch

ain

Its easy to get horn

There is money in it

Anti-poaching

Biological Management

This is what we do

What is written What is heard What to write What to hear

IPZ heavily guarded

Well managed rhino pops

Poachers caught, killed,

sentenced

Rhino has a low chance to

go extinct

Its not easy to get horn

Not a good investment

Not worth the risk

Stay out of IPZ

Do not use illegal

medicine

Sustainable legal medicine

The hidden risks of being militaristic People alienation

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The asset The Parks The key Allies Local/ Int

A war of the rich against the poor Humphreys & Smith 2014 Lunstrum et al. 2015

0

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Inci

den

ces

per

day

Poacher activity per day

Rhinos poached per day

RANGER EFFECT

Rudi van Aarde

Without these interventions rhinos would have been declining

significantly by now

Sam Ferreira

Strategically remove rhinos

Stimulate growth Remove asset

Numbers stable Periphery

Little poaching Poaching hotspot

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8000 9000 10000 11000

Ferreira et al. 2015

Equilibrium Models

Exponential Models

12 23

Ferreira, Botha & Emmett 2012

Sam Ferreira

Strategic Rhino Strongholds Intense protection Rhino husbandry One ranger per 10 km2 Maximize births

Partner Stronghold Protected areas

Community areas Share expertise

Private Stronghold Private land

Consumptive use Share expertise/return not given

International Strongholds – Expansion Programmes

Strategic rhino revenue

Fund protected areas Support strongholds Sam Ferreira

Biological management within protected areas was and is the back bone of rhino conservation

Sam Ferreira

Sam Ferreira

LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY INTERVENTIONS CHANGING INCENTIVES TO POACH

Managing the threat

Protect the asset

Reduce demand

Provide supply

Managing the Rhino

Manage ecology

Strategic removals

Rhino strongholds

Cri

min

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net

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Live

rh

ino

an

d h

un

tin

g tr

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Exti

nct

ion

an

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ade

Global North Global South Global Gradient Park neighbors

Syndicates

Sam Ferreira

Betters Bankers

Adapted from Bulte et al. 2003; Moore 2011; Mason et al. 2012

Long-term sustainability interventions The demand problem

Awareness Use threaten a species Culturally insensitive Targets all kind of use Ignores global dynamics

Demand reduction Any use is not good Culturally insensitive Targets all kind of use Ignores global dynamics

www.dailymail.co.uk

China Yemen Japan Vietnam

Stat

us

Po

ach

ing

Thre

at

?

Traditional

Fads

Sustainable demand Targets threatening uses Lengthen intervals • Target future growth economies

Reduce peaks • Target growing economies

Status peaks is a global economic process

Model modified from TRAFFIC 2013

armsandantiques.com

Managing status demand

Immediate - punishment Fear of personal adversity Needs Threat must be real, not a bluff Constant fear messaging

Lasting - reinforcement Needs Culturally sensitive messaging

www.breakingthebrand.org

www.wwf.org.za

Peter Lanius & Lynn Johnson 2015. Pers. Comm.

Co

ntr

ol

sym

pto

ms

Man

age

cau

ses

Ferreira et al. 2014

Present awareness campaigns are likely to fail unless creating sustainable demand targets fad dynamics

www.baraza.wildlifedirect.org

Increasing prices of CSO proposals contradict equilibrium economics

Diversity of commodities collapse equilibrium assumptions

Diversity of consumer behaviour collapse equilibrium assumptions

Central Selling Organization Biggs et al. 2013

Sustainability interventions assume simplistic equilibrium economics that may not track complex socio-ecological-economic systems well

Markus Hofmeyr

Sam Ferreira

Dis

rup

tive

Outcomes of responses to calming the rhino poaching storm

No

n-d

isru

pti

ve

Status Quo Protection Demand Supply Integrate

Agent-based economic model – parameterized against prices supply chain – 2006-2014

Individual-based population model – parameterized against estimates – 1998-2013

Poached rhinos

Haas & Ferreira 2014 Unpublished data. Sam Ferreira

Many Rhino Producers & poachers

Many Horn Consumers

Local International

Few criminal horn distributors

Regional

Present response options

Future efforts should focus here – need multi-lateral collaboration

Reduce demand Provide supply

Collapse and disrupt crime networks

Give people economic choices

GAME CHANGING INTERVENTIONS CHANGING INCENTIVES TO POACH

Adapted from Peters 2013

Sam Ferreira

SYMPTOMATIC RESPONSES: COMMAND AND CONTROL ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE

• Operational intelligence – Landscape appraisal – how does a poacher make choices

• Tactical intelligence – Predictive poaching risks – where is poaching likely to be next

• Strategic intelligence – Social and financial network analyses

Following the horn Local and regional

Communication links Investigators

Following the money International

Financial transaction links Darknet

Peters 2013 Haas & Ferreira 2014

Access to services

Water

boreholes (broken, saline, unreliable); municipal (unreliable, far);

communal; none

Ablutions

municipal flush (damaged); pit latrines; septic flush; enviro-loos (not enough,

damaged); nothing

Electricity

unreliable, solar panels, incomplete supply

Infrastructure

Computer centers

57 % none; yes (few, broken, old)

Libraries

60 % none; yes, few resources; 5 % no

Communication systems

cell phone; internet; fax; nothing

Security Sports facilities

The harsh reality…

SANParks

Numerous social surveys around Kruger

High price All values recognized

Low price Some values recognized

Weak ownership

Frontier economy : poaching and unsustainable harvesting

No hope economy: Wild resources replaced by more valuable or privately owned resources

Strong ownership

Sustainable use approach: Wild resources sustainably used accruing benefits

Survive if subsidised economy: Wild resources replaced by more valuable domestic resources

Adapted from Child 2012

Equality

Inequality

Ownership Single Shared Inequality

Crime

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF THE CAUSES OWNERSHIP, BENEFITS, CRIME, SUSTAINABILITY

Predictions from Kelly 2000

Pseudo-ownership: No accountability with benefit sharing a privilege defined by few elite Reciprocal partnerships: Accountability with benefit sharing a right earned

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF THE CAUSES RECIPROCAL PARTNERSHIPS, ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIES AND BENEFITS

Ecosystem benefits to people

Rhino war

Safety and Security Regional Plan

South Africa Mozambique

Rhino dividends

Rhino dividends

Rhino farming Rhino farming

Entrepreneur loans

Entrepreneur loans

Basic needs provision - water

SANParks

The short to medium term priorities

Calming the perfect rhino poaching storm Focus efforts on those interventions largely in our own control

Mostly out of SANParks’ and South Africa’s control

Traditional interventions in SANParks’ and South Africa’s control

New interventions mostly in SANParks’ and South Africa’s control Initiative Hlanganisa (unite) Reciprocal Partnerships Initiative Hlakaza (disrupt) Integrated crime disruption

Sam Ferreira