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California’s Water WAR: Part II. Balancing Agricultural and Domestic Water Demands Sharon Liu. Urban Planning M206A – Intro to GIS March 19, 2012. Introduction. THE FACTS California has a significant agriculture industry. California has a growing population. OUR PROBLEM - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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CALIFORNIA’S WATER WAR: PART IIBalancing Agricultural and Domestic Water Demands
Sharon Liu
Urban Planning M206A – Intro to GIS March 19, 2012
2
INTRODUCTION
THE FACTS• California has a significant agriculture industry.• California has a growing population.
OUR PROBLEM• Both crops and people need water.• Freshwater is a finite resource.
THE FUTURE• Who gets the water when both demands increase?• How will this impact California’s agriculture industry?
• SOURCES: Global ENSO SST Index (University of Washington)
YEAR 2000moderate La Niña
(dry weather)
3
CROP VALUE: STATES
• SKILLS: graduated symbols, aggregating attribute fields (Crop Value = Field/Misc. Crops + Fruits/Nuts + Commercial Vegetables)• SOURCES: UCLA Mapshare State and Country Boundaries, US Department of Agriculture (2000 Crop Values), 2000 US Census Bureau
4
CROP VALUE: US VS. CA
$2.8
$7.0
$5.6
California($15.5 billion)
Field and Misc. Fruits and NutsComm. Vegetables
$66.9
$12.4
$10.8
United States($90.0 billion)
Field and Misc. Fruits and NutsComm. Vegetables
in billions
• SKILLS: EXCEL pie charts• SOURCES: US Department of Agriculture (2000 Crop Values)
1) ~17% of US total crop value2) >50% of US crop value for both commercial vegetables and fruits and nuts
5
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
8%
30%
45%
60%
76%
% Change from 2000
Year
• SKILLS: EXCEL bar chart, inset map, graduated symbols, creating indices (fractional population change)• SOURCES: UCLA Mapshare County, State, and Country Boundaries; California Department of Finance (2000 population & decadal projections)
6
EVALUATIONMETRICS• Agricultural Water Demands• Domestic Water Demands• Irrigation Efficiency (proxied by evapotranspiration)
SCALES• Spatial: county• Temporal: monthly, annual, decadal
SIMPLIFYING ASSUMPTIONS• Water conservation efforts were not considered.• Climate variability (and climate change) were not considered.
– Total available water is fixed.• Other water uses (industrial, thermoelectric, mining, etc) assumed constant.• Freshwater sources and transport (via aqueducts) were not considered.
9
IRRIGATION EFFICIENCYEvapotranspiration
10
RECALL: WHAT IS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION?
ET = Evaporation + (Plant) Transpiration
Sufficient H20 ↑ crop growth (↑ ET) = ↑ crop value($)
Where does the H20 come from?– Native (rainfall, groundwater, etc)– Irrigation (imported water)
11
WEATHER STATIONS
• 224 stations total
• 94 stations with data for year 2000
Use CIMIS data to calculate ET
(Currently, 141 active and 83 inactive)
• SKILLS: inset map, original data (CIMIS station locations)• SOURCES: UCLA Mapshare County, State, and Country Boundaries, California Department of Water Resources (2000 Irrigated Crop Acres and Water Use),
California Irrigation Management and Information System (station locations and period of record)
MONTHLY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
12
WIN
TER
SPRI
NG
MONTHLY EVAPOTRANSPIRATIONSU
MM
ERFA
LL
13
14
STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE
SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION• z-score = 9.41:
>99% likelihood that pattern is NOT random• Moran’s Index = 0.323:
values have some correlation
• SKILLS: graduated symbols, hot spot analysis, aggregating attribute fields (annual = ∑monthly), model (kriging and clip), analysis (kriging), spatial statistics (spatial autocorrelation [Moran’s Index])
• SOURCES: UCLA Mapshare County, State, and Country Boundaries; California Irrigation Management and Information System (locations and annual ETo)
15
MODELED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
• SKILLS: creating indices (AW Efficiency = ETAW/AW), aggregating attribute fields (Applied Water = ΣAW for all 20 crop types), graduated symbols• SOURCES: UCLA Mapshare County, State, and Country Boundaries, California Department of Water Resources (2000 Irrigated Crop Acres and Water Use)
17
FUTURE IMPACTSWater Volume and Total Crop Production Value
18
WATER VOLUME: COUNTY
• SOURCES: UCLA Mapshare County, State, and Country Boundaries; California Department of Water Resources (2000 Irrigated Crop Acres and Water Use)
* Linear projections based on % change in population in each county
19
WATER VOLUME: STATEAGRICULTURAL WATER: Variable• In 2000, 30,497 Mgal/day yielded
$15.5 billion.• In 2050, 79,040 Mgal/day could
potentially yield $40.1 billion.DOMESTIC WATER: Minimum RequiredMAX AVAILABLE WATER: Fixed• 36,904 Mgal/day
WHICH CROPS GET WATER? • 25,049 Mgal/day is available for
agriculture.
2000 20500
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
6,407 11,855
30,497$15.5
79,040$40.1
California Water Use/Demand
AgriculturalDomesticMax. Available
Volu
me
(Mga
l/da
y)
25,049$??
deficit(53,991)
($??)
20
PLANNING SCENARIOS
Scenario I: Maximize crop production by first watering crops with the highest irrigation efficiency
Scenario II: Maximize crop profit by first watering crops with the greatest crop value
Scenario III: Maintain crop diversity by applying a proportional reduction in agricultural water
Scenario IV: Specialize crops (focus on commercial vegetables and fruits & nuts) by first watering crops with the highest irrigation efficiency
Agricultural Domestic
HOW TO BALANCETHE WATER DEMANDS?
21
EX. SCENARIO III: MAINTAIN CROP DIVERSITY Scenario III: Maintain crop diversity by applying a proportional reduction in agricultural water__________________________________
WHICH CROPS GET WATER? • 25,049 Mgal/day is available for
agriculture.
• Between 2000 and 2050, total crop production value would decrease by $2.4 billion.
2000 20500
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
6,407 11,855
30,497$15.5
79,040$40.1
California Water Use/Demand
AgriculturalDomesticMax. Available
Volu
me
(Mga
l/da
y)
25,049$13.1
deficit(53,991)($27.0)
22
SUMMARY
• Freshwater is a finite resource (future demand >> supply).
• There are many different approaches on how to allocate the water available for agriculture. – Irrigation Efficiency (using ET) is a statistically significant, yet
complicated option. (It also depends on modeled ETAW values.)
• Results suggest that there will be a decrease in $$ generated from the agriculture industry.
23
MODEL
• SKILLS: model creation (Kriging interpolation of annual precipitation and clipping to California boundary)• SOURCES: UCLA Mapshare County, State, and Country Boundaries; California Department of Water Resources (2000 Irrigated Crop Acres and Water Use)
Can also be applied to monthly ETo data in California.
24
SKILLS
• Model• Measurement/Analysis• Original Data
• Inset Map• Graduated symbols• Aggregating attribute fields • Creating indices• Attribute subset selection• Distance
• Charts, images• Hotspot Analysis (Spatial Analyst)• Spatial Statistics• Time-based Analysis
25
Questions?