California Energy Commission Medium and Heavy Vehicles and Movement of Light and Heavy Vehicles Inputs and Assumptions for Transportation Energy Demand

California Energy Commission

Medium and Heavy Vehicles andMovement of Light and Heavy Vehicles

Inputs and Assumptions for Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts

Rosenfeld Hearing Room

March 19, 2015

Bob McBride

Demand Analysis Office

Energy Assessments Division

[email protected] / 916-654-5009

1


To Cover Today

• Modeling Improvements• Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles• Vehicle Movement

2


Focus on Improvements

• Improvement in analysis from Caltrans and the California Air Resources Board

• Categories of medium and heavy trucks to better capture natural groupings of vehicle miles per year

• Capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) with vehicle age in our transportation demand models

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MEDIUM AND HEAVY DUTY VEHICLES

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Public Sources of Vehicle Data• Analysis of Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV)

data by Energy Commission– Light: 15 classes, vintage, and fuel used– Medium/heavy: 41 body types, region, weight, vintage,

fuel• Air Resources Board (ARB) Emission Factors

Model (EMFAC) vehicle population– Light: One passenger car and four truck classes – Medium/heavy: grouped by regulatory rules, aligned

with end uses; 37 classes by County– Includes International Registration Program (IRP)– “Fuel” indicates whether diesel or gasoline rules apply

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Medium & Heavy Trucks & Buses

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10,000 to 14000

pounds

Motor homes

14,001 to 26,000 pounds

26,001 to 32,000 pounds

Over 32,000 pounds

Diesel 116,635 32,498 190,937 65,209 199,462

Hybrid Diesel 0 0 0 0 95

Electric 52 2 982 3 79

Flex Ethanol 8,326 441 353 0 0

Gasoline 80,579 133,087 76,823 3,994 9,871

Natural Gas 180 8 2,351 751 11,492

Propane 185 7 760 133 539


Buses in Raw DMV Data

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Gross Weight (pounds)

Diesel ElectricFlex

EthanolGasoline

Hybrid Diesel

Natural Gas

Propane

10,000 to 14,000 3,131 0 826 4,471 0 14 0

14,001 to 26,000 18,959 534 270 16,787 0 1,792 507

26,001 to 32,000 6,511 3 0 399 0 493 6

32,000 up 11,744 67 0 819 95 6,407 519


Additional Sources of Bus Data

• National Transit Database– Annual reporting from transit agencies, now tracks

vehicles, their activity, finances, and energy use

• Motor Coach Association– National survey of private transportation including

scheduled service, charters, and contract services

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Refining Medium & Heavy Duty Stock

• Allocate unknown body type in proportion to known types

• Account for International Registration Program trucks also registered in California

• Allocate enough heavy duty tractor trailers to move commodities in Freight Analysis Framework

• Reconcile DMV and EMFAC classifications

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Fuel Types Assigned to EMFAC Fuel Rule Types

EMFAC Truck Fuel RulesMedium/Heavy Vehicle

Fuel Types

diesel"DSL" diesel-electric hybrid

diesel rules apply natural gas (CNG, LNG) natural gas hybrid

gasoline"GAS" hybrid

gasoline rules apply electric hydrogen propane (LPG)

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Refined Truck and Bus Classes Using Shared Identifiers

• Regional geography• Weight class• Vintage• Applicable emissions rule by fuel (EMFAC)• Some indications of body type and end use

– Motorhomes, refuse trucks, and buses– Tractor trailers and single unit trucks

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Medium/Heavy Stock forFreight Energy Demand Model

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diesel electricflex

ethanolgasoline natural gas propane

GVWR 3 111,992 47 7,055 72,027 66 98

GVWR3to8 MOTORHOME 32,494 2 441 133,068 8 7

GVWR4to6 164,573 414 69 57,162 544 242

GVWR7 56,484 0 0 3,314 149 111GVWR8 42,334 2 0 7,248 658 11

GVWR8 COMBO 135,859 5 0 1,276 1,474 2

GVWR8 REFUSE AND RECYCLE

8,946 5 0 516 2,938 4

GVWR8 IRP 75,163 0 0 0 0 0


EMFAC Vehicle Classes

• Five light duty classes (under 10,000 pounds gross)

• Thirteen medium duty classes (10,000 to 32,000 pounds gross)

• Twelve heavy duty classes (over 32,000 pounds gross)

• Five bus classes: urban transit, motor coach (intercity and other bus), school bus, and demand response (paratransit)

• Four International Registration Program classes

• Motorcycle, Motor Home

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Eight truck classes for 2015 IEPR

• 10,000 to 14,000 pounds - GVWR 3

• 14,000 to 26,000 pounds - GVWR 4 to 6

• 26,000 to 32,000 pounds - GVWR 7

• Over 32,000 combinations - GVWR 8

• Over 32,000 pound refuse and recycling trucks - GVWR 8

• Over 32,000 pound International Registration Plan trucks - GVWR 8

• Other trucks over 32,000 pounds - GVWR 8

• Motor homes to over 32,000 pounds - GVWR 3 to 8

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VEHICLE MOVEMENT

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Vehicle Miles Estimates

• Emission Factors Model (EMFAC 2011, EMFAC 2014 beta)– Vehicle population, miles traveled (VMT), fuel and emissions

for autos and a number of medium and heavy vehicle types– Methodology in the process of changing for EMFAC 2014

• California Statewide Travel Demand Model– Used for 2040 California Transportation Plan– Validated using traffic counts at screenlines

• Highway Performance Monitoring System– Based on traffic counts, used to allocate highway money– Internally consistent but not validated against travel surveys

or travel models

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Ga

llon

s G

GE

(B

illio

ns

)

An

nu

al

Ve

hic

le M

iles

(B

illio

ns

)

EMFAC 2011 HPMS Fuel consumed (10^9 GGE)

Statewide Annual Vehicle MilesCompared to Fuel Consumed

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• Personal vehicle movement simulated from behavior of households in 2012 California Household Travel Survey

• Screenline validation used to calibrate CSTDM traffic volumes to empirical traffic counts

• Conversion from CSTDM’s typical midweek fall day required to estimate annual vehicle miles

• Travel choices vary based on four time-of-day periods reflecting peak and off-peak conditions

Travel Data from California Statewide Travel Demand Model (CSTDM)

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Travel Data from EMFAC and Smog Check data

• Light duty vehicle movement determined by analysis of smog check data

• Medium and heavy truck movement and VMT decay based on ARB studies and inspection program records

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Implications of Truck Assignment to Commodity Movement

Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) forecasts commodity movement, not truck miles

• Movement of trucks assigned to commodities dictated by and limited to FAF commodity volumes

• International Registration Program trucks moving commodities between states assumed to consume fuel pumped out-of-state

• Payload & unladen miles from 2002 Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS)

• Movement of other trucks estimated from EMFAC daily VMT

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Truck Assignment to Duties

• All International Registration Program(IRP) trucks over 32,000 pounds move commodities

• Additional commodity volume not assigned to IRP vehicles assigned to in-state combination tractor trailers

• All other trucks assigned to service industries including construction, utilities, local delivery, etc

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Vehicle Miles Decay with Vehicle Age

• New vehicles used more than older vehicles

• VMT decay with age capability added to models

• Expect significant shifts in model output of fuel consumption toward efficiency and newly introduced fuel types

• The rate of VMT decay in our analysis of smog check data for light duty and EMFAC for medium and heavy duty varies across vehicle types

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VMT Decay by Age and Type of Truck

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0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Mile

s p

er

Ye

ar

Age of Trucks

GVWR 3 GVWR3to8 MOTORHOME

GVWR4to6 GVWR7

GVWR8 GVWR8 COMBO

GVWR8 IRP GVWR8 REFUSE AND RECYCLE


Decay of Miles Traveled from ARB Mobile Source Analysis Branch

• Light duty vehicle Smog Check data used to estimate VMT by vehicle type and vintage

• Medium and heavy duty vehicle inspections and 2008 and 2010 truck studies used

• Data transformed to a VMT decay proportion for each vehicle type and vintage

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Questions? Comments?

Bob McBride

Demand Analysis Office

Energy Assessments Division

[email protected] / 916-654-5009

25

Documents

California Energy Commission Medium and Heavy Vehicles and Movement of Light and Heavy Vehicles Inputs and Assumptions for Transportation Energy Demand