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Lomonosov Moscow State University Faculty of Geography. Calculation of mountain lakes outburst hydrographs. Kidyaeva Vera. FIRST VINOGRADOV'S READINGS. FUTURE OF HYDROLOGY Saint-Petersburg, 2013. The importance of the mountain lakes studies. Parts of the mountain lakes research. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Calculation of mountain lakes outburst hydrographsLomonosov Moscow State UniversityFaculty of GeographyFIRST VINOGRADOV'S READINGS. FUTURE OF HYDROLOGY Saint-Petersburg, 2013Kidyaeva Vera
The importance of the mountain lakes studies
Parts of the mountain lakes research1. Potentially hazardous lakes search 2. Surveying and monitoring 3. Morphometrical and hydrological characteristics determination 4. Regional relations determination5. Potential outburst possibility evaluation 6. Scenarios of the outbursts7. Lake outburst hydrographs calculation/evaluation 8. Mathematical simulation of floods or debris flows9. Spatial distribution of the flood or debris flow parameters 10. Intensity and hazard zoning in river valley11. Social and infrastructure vulnerability assessment 12. Risk evaluation
Objects
Mountain lakesGlacialBarrierice-dammedmoraine dammedproglacialrock, and etc.Caused by:lanslides, mudslidesdebris flows, and etc.Study areas: Central Caucasus, Russia (Elbrus region) & Sichuan Province, China (region of the 12.05 Wenchuan earthquake)
Outburst or overflow hydrographs and maximum discharge evaluation field surveysempirical formulas and methodswater-balance methodsmathematical and hydraulic outburst modelshydrodynamic modeling
Measured hydrographs
PositionDistance from Tangjiashan Dam, kmPeak discharge, m3/sOccurrence timeTangjiashan dam0650012:30Beichuan hydrologic station4.6654012:50Tongkou hydrologic station26.0621013:50
Modeling the outburst flood that occurred in 10-12 of June 2008 after the artificial cut at the dam the dam
Empirical formulasProbable maximum discharge of sudden breaks of ice dams:Qmax = W/t (1) or for moraine-dammed lakes:Qmax = 2W/t (2)Haeberli, W. 1983. Frequency and characteristics of glacier floods in the Swiss Alps. Annals of Glaciology, 4: 8590.Huggel, C. et. al. 2002. Remote sensing based assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: a case study in the Swiss Alps. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 39: 316330.Clague, J.J., and Mathews, W.H. 1973. The magnitude of Jkulhlaups. Journal of Glaciology, 12: 501504.Subglacial drainage of ice dammed lakes:Qmax maximum discharge, m3/s, W - volume in m3, t - drainage duration in seconds, t =1000 s for maximum estimates(3)
Ice-dammed glacial lake outburst 11 august 2006Parameters:Estimated volume of the flood 420 000 m3Maximum discharge of the flood 20 m3/sVolumetric concentration of thedebris flow 0.42 Water-balance method based on field surveys Q, m3/sChernomorets S., Petrakov D., Tutubalina O. 2007 Glacial lake outburst in the north-eastern slope of Mount Elbrus August 11, 2006: the forecast, the eventand the consequences// Materials of glaciological studies. 102. P.211215.
Results
Mathematical and hydraulic models 0 - water density, 1000 kg/m3 - water and ice density, 850-910 kg/m3g - gravitational acceleration, 9.81 m/s2r - latent heat of fusion of ice, 334 000 J/kgl - length of the tunnel, 550 mh - excess between entrance and the exit of the tunnel, 61 mW0 - volume of the lake before the outburst, 821 000 m3a, m - morphometrical parameters of the lake C0 - specific mass heat capacity of water, 4190 J/kg t - lake water temperature, 2,5 Computational model by Yu. B. Vinogradov for outburst through ice tunnel: for Bashkara lake
Gnezdilov Ju., Ivashchenko E., Krasnikh N. 2007 Evaluation of a hypothetical ouburst of the Lake Bashkara // Proceedings of "Sevkavgiprovodhoz", Issue 17, p.127-149.Mathematical and hydraulic models lake
Computational model for a step-shaped schematized lake hollow by V.Mochalov and I.Zuckerman Mathematical and hydraulic models W volume of the lake, m3S- surface area, m2Z depth, mZ depth of the spillway, mk spillway koef. erosion intensity koef., m-2 Tangjiashan barrier lake
Mathematical and hydraulic models 17t, h036vs.Tangjiashan barrier lake outburst, 10-12 of June 2008 ?
Hydrodynamic simulationThe Tangjiashan Barrier Lake overflow in case of huge rockfall (volume > 106 m3). The dam is stable
Methodology:two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation, using River model by V. Belikov, A. MiliteevSaint-Venant equations
u - longitudinal component of flow velocity
v transverse component of flow velocity
q - additional inflow
_1256566703.unknown
Irregular rectangular-triangular gridDigital terrain model of the valleylakedamriverbed
Simulated overflow discharge at the dam of the Tangjiashan Lake, the highest peak 5000 m3/s
3
116.38129
122.55221
130.63011
5154.38356
1226.52405
1070.46494
552.56495
282.05089
37.88916
557.64044
515.1128
349.37426
172.8164
231.54021
263.95213
385.88162
448.20623
392.85898
297.79385
283.93505
349.23678
376.36808
357.42892
316.61284
283.70565
265.77522
286.55436
315.48448
311.54275
281.02199
267.95552
281.89155
305.57325
319.56722
319.34552
312.5185
311.80612
322.48181
335.3399
338.66801
330.62084
320.21768
315.21069
316.32185
318.74407
316.89862
309.83374
303.50073
303.77751
309.63732
315.08977
316.42662
314.75521
313.25632
313.8226
315.69236
316.20582
313.53267
308.79561
304.70533
302.75231
302.26013
301.6684
300.2338
298.65276
298.20911
299.29547
300.98926
302.06725
302.16434
301.83079
301.7361
301.99145
302.13043
301.64692
300.53764
299.30347
298.43204
297.95733
297.5464
296.93826
296.21544
295.67074
295.48014
295.5309
295.54859
295.3622
295.02559
294.69615
294.43626
294.14941
293.69012
293.0141
292.2196
291.45317
290.78504
290.17939
289.57386
288.96914
288.43331
288.03052
287.75623
287.54094
287.30993
287.03563
286.7355
286.42863
286.10271
285.72385
285.27604
284.77471
284.26125
283.76979
283.30836
282.86712
282.43963
282.03357
281.66188
281.32647
281.01248
280.69798
280.36818
280.02113
279.66143
279.29064
278.90431
278.49765
278.07256
277.63851
277.2066
276.78313
276.36841
275.96081
275.56108
275.17249
274.79735
274.43397
274.07718
273.72166
273.36461
273.00573
272.64506
272.28124
271.91212
271.53671
271.15637
270.7741
270.39277
270.01405
269.63855
269.26688
268.90008
268.53912
268.18403
267.83348
267.48542
267.1379
266.78983
266.4407
266.08986
265.7366
265.38063
265.02233
264.6627
264.30302
263.94423
263.58728
263.23269
262.88071
262.53154
262.18523
261.8414
261.49945
261.15872
260.81861
260.4787
260.13873
259.79843
259.45779
259.11708
258.77659
258.43659
258.09742
257.75939
257.42272
257.08761
256.75412
256.42223
256.09181
255.76267
255.43459
255.1074
254.78089
254.45494
254.12941
253.80423
253.47936
253.15475
252.83067
252.50737
252.18482
251.86315
251.54245
251.22278
250.90422
250.58687
250.27065
249.95536
249.64091
249.32725
249.01433
248.70208
248.39046
248.07942
247.76894
247.45908
247.14992
246.84152
246.53389
246.22704
245.92103
245.61594
245.31172
245.00842
244.70604
244.40448
244.10374
243.80378
243.50455
243.20601
242.90814
242.61092
242.31436
242.01848
241.7233
241.42885
241.13513
240.84215
240.54994
240.25846
239.96767
239.67733
239.38782
239.09953
238.81168
238.52462
238.23839
237.95299
237.66822
237.38411
237.10079
236.81804
236.53591
236.2545
235.97382
235.69381
235.41447
235.13589
234.85802
234.58083
234.30432
234.02838
233.75307
233.47848
233.20465
232.9315
232.659
232.38717
232.11603
231.84559
231.57588
231.30687
231.03852
230.77081
230.50375
230.23735
229.9716
229.7065
229.44202
229.17812
228.91476
228.65203
228.38997
228.12854
227.86773
227.60758
227.34804
227.08913
226.8309
226.57336
226.31649
226.06025
225.80462
225.54964
225.29534
225.04171
224.78875
224.53642
224.28474
224.03371
223.78334
223.53361
223.28451
223.03602
222.78815
222.54088
222.29425
222.04825
221.80287
221.55969
221.31713
221.0752
220.83388
220.59317
220.35308
220.11359
219.8747
219.6364
219.3987
219.16159
218.92507
218.68914
218.4538
218.21906
217.98491
217.75136
217.5184
217.28604
217.05427
216.82309
216.59251
216.36251
216.13309
215.90426
215.676
215.44833
215.22123
214.9947
214.76874
214.54333
214.31842
214.09405
213.87027
213.6471
213.42449
213.20246
212.981
212.76012
212.53979
212.32008
212.10094
211.88236
211.66441
211.44707
211.23034
211.01425
210.79877
210.58391
210.36967
210.15605
209.94307
209.73074
209.51907
209.30821
209.09815
208.88871
208.67985
208.47147
208.26364
208.05629
207.84939
207.64302
207.43719
207.2318
207.0268
206.82218
206.61809
206.41467
206.21133
206.00844
205.80596
205.60391
205.40235
205.2013
205.00073
204.80063
204.60099
204.4018
204.20307
204.00478
203.80694
203.60951
203.4125
203.2159
203.0197
202.82386
202.62843
202.43343
202.23887
202.04479
201.85117
201.658
201.46527
201.27297
201.0811
200.88965
200.69863
200.50803
200.31784
200.12804
199.93866
199.74969
199.56114
199.37299
199.18526
198.99793
198.81101
198.6245
198.4384
198.2527
198.06741
197.88251
197.698
197.51386
197.33004
197.1467
196.96381
196.78131
196.59921
196.41751
196.23619
196.05527
195.8748
195.69473
195.51503
195.33567
195.1567
194.97812
194.79993
194.62213
194.44471
194.26766
194.091
193.91472
193.73884
193.56333
193.38819
193.21342
193.03899
192.86491
192.69113
192.51762
192.34449
192.17175
191.99939
191.82742
191.65583
191.48461
191.31379
191.14338
190.97338
190.80375
190.63447
190.46553
190.29694
190.12872
189.96087
189.79337
189.62621
189.4594
189.29294
189.12685
188.9611
188.7957
188.63061
188.4658
188.30116
188.13687
187.97304
187.80972
187.64677
187.48413
187.32181
187.15983
186.99823
186.83703
186.67617
186.51559
186.3553
186.19534
186.03575
185.87651
185.71761
185.55903
185.40078
185.24288
185.08534
184.92817
184.77133
184.61481
184.45862
184.30276
184.14724
183.99205
183.83718
183.68261
183.52836
183.37444
183.22084
183.06756
182.91461
182.76196
182.60964
182.45765
182.30599
182.15465
182.00364
181.85294
181.70256
181.55251
181.40277
181.25335
181.10424
180.95544
180.80695
180.65877
180.51091
180.36335
180.2161
180.06916
179.92253
179.7762
179.63019
179.48449
179.33909
179.19399
179.0492
178.9047
178.7605
178.61659
178.47295
178.3296
178.18654
178.04377
177.90128
177.75908
177.61719
177.47561
177.33433
177.19336
177.0527
176.91234
176.77228
176.63251
176.49303
176.35384
176.21493
176.07631
175.93797
175.79991
175.66214
175.52466
175.38746
175.25055
175.11393
174.9776
174.84155
174.70578
174.5703
174.43509
174.30016
174.16551
174.03113
173.89703
173.76319
173.62962
173.49631
173.36326
173.23048
173.09797
172.96573
172.83375
172.70206
172.57064
172.43949
172.30863
172.17804
172.04773
171.91769
171.78792
171.65841
171.52917
171.40019
171.27147
171.14301
171.01481
170.88688
170.75921
170.6318
170.50466
170.37777
170.25115
170.1248
169.9987
169.87286
169.74727
Q_3dam
time, hour
calculated discharge, m3/c
z1_50
timeQ_3damQ_4_BeichuanQ5_MagunyanQ2_Tongkou
47.992790.00116.38129119.72728125.26706129.30437
48.005350.01122.55221130.8591136.88322135.23911
48.025410.03774.51728132.26119147.33857155.77878
48.045440.05827.16964134.50058147.71902155.51629
48.065540.07146.70893135.89292147.78114155.20314
48.085540.0950.13852137.30728147.69037155.02374
48.105650.11478.71213138.12306147.59003154.88837
48.125720.13444.80731138.28841147.48227154.77461
48.145780.15134.9346138.09553147.37044154.67485
48.165850.17138.20736137.8397147.26064154.58365
48.185880.19229.72106137.63717147.15634154.49692
48.205970.21122.35437137.48946147.05763154.41059
48.226040.23159.97717137.3738146.96334154.32142
48.246090.25275.59986137.27113146.87282154.22824
48.266170.27287.33974137.17318146.78535154.13105
48.286250.29187.61655137.0796146.70016154.03068
48.306380.31209.12116136.99202146.61682153.92865
48.326390.33278.59636136.91044146.5351153.82667
48.346510.35255.00729136.83352146.45489153.72625
48.366570.37245.54344136.75969146.37574153.62802
48.386660.39261.43585136.68818146.2973153.53226
48.406740.41240.6149136.61879146.21971153.43952
48.426750.43201.85305136.55253146.1425153.34926
48.446830.45208.30284136.49523146.06589153.26161
48.466910.47229.49061136.45787145.98982153.17619
48.486960.49218.65829136.45951145.9147153.09309
48.5070.51198.67105136.53096145.8399153.01127
48.527070.53199.25288136.71965145.76538152.93033
48.547190.55204.72815137.08851145.69125152.85007
48.567230.57202.81464137.71629145.61747152.77021
48.587290.59208.7438138.70106145.54397152.69043
48.607340.61216.98603140.1474145.47071152.61054
48.627380.63213.26991142.14339145.39776152.53048
48.647430.65207.85154144.72046145.32556152.45067
48.667490.67216.72649147.88442145.25366152.37058
48.687560.69229.3801151.59038145.18161152.28968
48.707630.71233.14639155.70006145.10987152.2085
48.727670.73232.73724160.07373145.03839152.12703
48.747710.75233.51563164.59908144.96717152.04531
48.767750.77231.87273169.19332144.89623151.96341
48.78780.79230.83497173.77698144.82556151.88141
48.807840.81233.3313178.26254144.75514151.79934
48.827880.83233.42167182.56673144.68494151.71724
48.84790.85227.56041186.62606144.61495151.63516
48.867920.87220.71115190.40198144.54515151.55314
48.887950.89217.26054193.87508144.47553151.47122
48.907990.91216.48054197.03824144.40607151.38943
48.928040.93216.91225199.89291144.33675151.30777
48.948090.95218.00656202.44594144.26756151.22626
48.968140.97218.62213204.70748144.1985151.1449
48.98820.99218.33649206.69078144.12957151.06371
49.008261.01219.15236208.4122144.0608150.9827
49.028331.03222.07889209.89542143.99265150.90239
49.048411.05225.08202211.19424143.92471150.82224
49.068481.07226.19656212.3134143.85705150.74226
49.088551.09225.6394213.23976143.78975150.66244
49.108621.11224.21357213.97166143.72294150.58276
49.128691.13222.47785214.52479143.65677150.50322
49.148761.15221.02796214.92415143.59145150.42381
49.168831.17219.79939215.20335143.52722150.34452
49.18891.19218.07035215.37803143.46438150.26531
49.208981.21215.78835215.45819143.40327150.18618
49.229061.23213.84003215.45028143.34432150.1071
49.249141.25212.91312215.36678143.28799150.02807
49.269231.27212.92069215.23184143.23481149.94907
49.289321.29213.40752215.06568143.18536149.87008
49.309411.31213.98072214.87572143.14028149.79111
49.329511.33214.46172214.66632143.10022149.71213
49.349611.35214.95788214.44325143.06591149.63315
49.369711.37215.66569214.21511143.03808149.55416
49.389811.39216.48615213.99036143.0175149.47517
49.409911.41217.03932213.77178143.00492149.39617
49.430011.43217.09416213.56056143.00113149.31715
49.450121.45216.76277213.35831143.00689149.23813
49.470221.47216.29465213.16662143.02296149.15909
49.490321.49215.85506212.98654143.05007149.08004
49.510431.51215.45649212.81859143.08892149.00098
49.530541.53214.99503212.66284143.14015148.92192
49.550641.55214.39746212.51918143.2044148.84285
49.570751.57213.75214212.38743143.28225148.76378
49.590861.59213.23845212.26729143.37426148.6847
49.610961.61212.946212.15836143.48093148.60564
49.631071.63212.81598212.06014143.60271148.52659
49.651181.65212.72841211.9721143.74002148.44757
49.671291.67212.61237211.89376143.89321148.36858
49.69141.69212.49167211.82439144.06257148.28963
49.711511.71212.43864211.7627144.24834148.21073
49.731621.73212.47913211.70703144.45069148.13188
49.751741.75212.5487211.65568144.66974148.05311
49.771851.77212.5458211.60716144.90555147.97442
49.791971.79212.41719211.56014145.15812147.89581
49.812081.81212.18537211.51341145.42739147.81731
49.83221.83211.90503211.46596145.71325147.73892
49.852321.85211.60477211.41696146.01557147.66064
49.872441.87211.26914211.36582146.33411147.5825
49.892561.89210.87044211.31242146.66864147.50451
49.912691.91210.4144211.25729147.01886147.42667
49.932811.93209.95065211.201147.38443147.34899
49.952931.95209.53851211.14366147.76495147.27149
49.973051.97209.20778211.08504148.15999147.19418
49.993171.99208.95004211.02491148.56906147.11705
50.01332.01208.74246210.96358148.99165147.04012
50.033422.03208.57368210.90209149.42724146.96339
50.053552.05208.44833210.84095149.87528146.88686
50.073672.07208.36966210.77982150.33523146.81054
50.09382.09208.32097210.71838150.80655146.73443
50.113922.11208.26842210.65659151.28867146.65854
50.134052.13208.18006210.59504151.78101146.58287
50.154182.15208.04161210.5349152.28298146.50744
50.174182.17207.8574210.4761152.79391146.43224
50.194182.19207.639210.41785153.31147146.35728
50.214182.21207.39376210.35931153.83226146.28259
50.234182.23207.12388210.29983154.35628146.20816
50.254182.25206.83456210.2391154.88482146.13401
50.274192.27206.53999210.177155.41908146.06017
50.294192.29206.26014210.11358155.95966145.98664
50.314192.31206.00874210.04896156.50645145.91346
50.33422.33205.79045209.98334157.05887145.84065
50.35422.35205.59982209.91695157.61609145.76823
50.374212.37205.42865209.85009158.17722145.69625
50.394212.39205.27146209.783158.7415145.62473
50.414222.41205.12536209.71574159.30832145.55374
50.434232.43204.98579209.64827159.87717145.48332
50.454232.45204.84413209.58051160.44765145.41352
50.474242.47204.69042209.51229161.01931145.34444
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z1_40
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z2_40
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