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The ideas expressed in this paper are those of theauthor. The paper does not necessarily representthe views of either the Center for Naval Analysesor the Department of Defense.

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REVOLUTION FROM A F.A.R. -- THE CUBANARMED FORCES IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

William J. Durch

CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES

The views expressed in this paper are those ofthe author and do not necessarily represent theposition of the Center for Naval Analyses, theDepartment of Defense, or any other Governmentaqency.

REVOLUTION FROM A F.A.R. -- THE CUBANARMED FORCES IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST

In 1975, when Fidel Castro sent thousands of combat troops

to support the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (the

MPLA), many observers were taken aback at what they presumed to be

a radical and dangerous departure in Cuban foreign policy. At best

it seemed to signal renewed Cuban interest in the export of

revolution,* and at worst, a new round of superpower competition

in the Third World, in the form of nwar by proxy."y Two years later,

as Cuban troops remain mired in Angola, the issue of Cuban military

missions overseas remains one of the stumbling blocks to further

improvements in U. S.-Cuban relations.týA close look ait ee

missions, their origins, purposes, and likely futures - on--e• rdu•,

Cuban military missions have been active in Africa since 1961

(and in the Middle East since 1973; see map). Military ties with

the Angolan MPLA were established a decade before the first Cuban

combat troops set foot in Angola. Castro's support for liberation

movements and "progressive" regimes has, furthermore, transcended

Cuban-Soviet relations. In the mid-60s -- when Havana and Moscow

were at odds over Castro's domestic policies and his support for

guerrilla groups in Latin America -- Cuban policies in Africa were

essentially indistinguishable from those of the 1970s, a period

of growing Cuban-Soviet cooperation. The Angolan intervention

itself, while a radical departure in level of effort, was not a

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radical departure in policy, but an outgrowth of more than a

decade of Cuban military involvement in the region.

It may seem ironic that Castro should have scored his

greatest foreign policy victories in Africa, after all the

concern in the 1960s over his efforts to export revolution to

Latin America. But the one follows 1rom the other. Cuban efforts in

this hemisphere, directed at countries then closely aligned with

the U. S., attracted American attention and reaction. Africa, on

.he other hand, remained a strategic backwater in U. S. policy-making

until quite recently, its states newly-independent and largely

non-aligned, its remaining colonies inviting liberation. As OAS

sanctions increasingly isolated Cuba from its own region, Africa

came to occupy an important place in Cuban foreign policy. Its

"progressive" states offered political ties outside the socialist

bloc, while its liberation movements offered a relatively risk-free

opportunity to advance the cause of revolution in the Third World.

Cuban activities in Africa actually predate Havana's troubles

with the OAS. By 1960, Cuban arms and medical personnel had reached

the National Liberation Front fighting the French in Algeria. In 1961,

Cuban instructors established a training camp for African guerrillas in

Kwame Nkrumah's Ghana; the camp remained active until Nkrumah's over-

throw in early 1966. Similar activities may have been undertaken in

Algeria in the early 1960s. But all these were relatively low-level

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endeavors. Cuba's first substantial military venture in Africa came

in late 1963, during the border conflict between Algeria and Morocco.

A long-simmering territorial dispute between Algeria and

Morocco erupted into war on October 14, 1963. One week later, the

Cuban ship Aracelio iglesias docked at the Algerian port of Oran with

a cargo of T-34 tanks and 50 Cuban technicians. Algeria asserted that

the shipment was part of a previous agreement with Cuba, not related

to the fighting. The time of its arrival supports the Algerian claim.

Oran is almost two weeks' sailing time from Havana; the ship must have

been en route to Oran when the fighting began.

Algeria had little armor in its inventory before the Cuban

shipment, and Cuba clearly intended to train the Algerians in, the use

of the tanks -- hence the 50 technicians. The outbreak of war, how-

ever, required both a speedup in the delivery of equipment, and the

dispatch of troops to man it if it was to be of any use to Algeria in

the immediate crisis. Two other Cuban ships, therefore, left Havana

for Algeria shortly after the war broke ourt. The Gonzalez Lines docked

at Oran on October 28, and another ship docked the 29th. Both carried

arms -- tanks, artillery, mortars, ammunitinn -- and very likely the

bulk of four hundred Cuban tank troops. An Air Cubana Britannia, landing

at Oran on the 29th, may have brought in additional troops.

There is little evidence that the Cubans ever engaged in

combat (a ceasefire was signed on October 30). The mission probably

remained in Algeria through the end of the year, training the Algerians.

"-4-

It withdrew in early January. Cuban-Moroccan diplomatic relations,

severed during the crisis, then resumed.

The Cubans' interest in Africa remained high in 1964, probably

increasing as their isolation from Latin America became more complete.

Che Guevara's trip to Africa late that year signalled a new round of

activism.

In the course of his three-month trip, Guevara spoke out in

support of rebel forces in Congo-Leopoldville (now Zaire). He also met

with the leaders of the liberation movements in Portugal's African

colonies -- Angola, Mozambique, and Portuguese Guinea -- and pledged

Cuban aid to all three movements, as well as to the Zairean rebels.

Cuban ships delivered arms to Congo-Brazzaville (home base

fox the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, the MPLA) in

mfd-1965, and to Guinea (home base for t1e African Party for the

Independence of Portuguese Guinea and the Cape Verde Islands, the

PAIGC) about a year later. Cuban support of the Front for the Libera-

tion of Mozambique (FRELIMO), based in Tanzania, is harder to establish,

but Cuban instructors were apparently serving in guerrilla training

camps in Tanzania by the late 1960s. Much earlier, Cuban military

advisers, Che Guevara among them, were serving in the field with guer-

rilla groups in Zaire.

Guevara entered Zaire via Tanzania with a small band of

Cubans in April 1965. He was joined in July by perhaps 200 additional

men, who entered Zaire through neighboring Congo-Brazzaville. But

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the Cubans found the rebel forces unwilling to fight and their leaders

corrupt. After Zaire's Chief of Staff, Gen. Mobutu, seized power in

a military coup in November 1965, Guevara and his men departed, probably

joining the growing Cuban mission in Congo-Brazzaville.

The Brazzaville mission marks a turning point in Cuban

military diplomacy in Africa. Its origins may be traced in pan:t to

the wave of military coups that toppled many African governments in

1965 and 1966. Among the leaders ousted were two of Cuba's best

friends in Africa, Algeria's Ben Bella and Ghana's Nkrumah. With

their downfall, Cuba lost both of its African guerrilla training bases.

When new bases were established, in Congo-Brazzaville and Guinea, Cuba

devoted more attention to protecting the host "progressive" governments.

Consolidating revolutiunary gains already made became as important as

promoting revolution anew.

Cuba's fresh experience in combating energetic counter-

revolutionary activities at home suited it, perhaps uniquely, to that

task. Thus, from 1965 on, Cuba devoted a large part of its advisory

effort in Africa to the training of popular militias, under the con-

trol of ruling parties, as counterweights to the regular armed forces.

Brazzaville was the first of these missions. Cuba did not abandon its

support for African revolutionary movements. But after the disaster

in Zaire, Castro seems to have focused his attention on the task of

liberating the Portuguese colonies and seems generally to have let

established African governments alone.

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The Cuban mission to Congo-Brazzaville grew from perhaps

250 men in mid-1965 to as many as 700 by June 1966, training a popular

militia and serving as a presidential guard. In late June, the Cubans

thwarted an attempted coup by the army, physically protecting govern-

ment and party leaders during three days of unrest. In the wake of the

attempted coup, the Cuban mission grew. By October, it numbered per-

haps 1,00 men, making it half as large as the Congolese National

Army itself. The mission was phased out by the Congolese government

over the next two years, and a successful -- and complicatei -- coup

apparently brought the mission to an end by late 1968.

Not only did the Brazzaville mission train the Con4olese

militia, but at Dolisie, on the Cabinda border, Cuban instructors

traid guerrillas of the Angolan MPLA. Active Cuban support for the

MPLA thus preceded, by about ten years, the arrival of Cuban combat

troops in Angola. Although the Brazzaville mission was phased out,

a small contingent of Cuban instructors appears to have stayed with the

MPLA into the 1970s.

Cuba's mission to the West African nation of Guinea essen-

tially duplicated the one in Brazzaville. Guinea's security-conscious

president, Sekou Toure, requested both a Cuban presidential guard and

Cuban instruztors for Guinea's militia. He received both. Militia

training was underway by December 1966. It continues today.

Cuban advisers probably joined PAIGC guerrillas operating

inside Portuguese Guinea in late 1966. Their presence was first noted

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publicly by the Portuguese in February 1967. As the advisory mission

grew, the Cubans assumed responsibility for logistics, communications,

and other technical services for the guerrillas. They also served in

the field, and suffered casualties.

Cuban activism in Africa trailed off toward the end of the

1960s. The Brazzaville mission essentially ended. The mission to

Guinea and the PAIGC and the small advisory efforts with the MPLA and

FRELIMO were now the only Cuban military missions on the continent; no

new ones were undertaken.

When Cuban activism began to pick up once again in 1971,

attention was first paid to the liberation of Portuguese Guinea. This

was the first mission to receive additional men; by 1974, as maiy as

200 advisers were working with the guerrillas.

New missions in the 1970s included Sierra Leone in 1972, where

Cuban advisers trained a 500-man internal security unit for President

Siaka Stevens. A small contingent of Cuban advisers remains. In 1973,

Cuba sent perhaps 80 military advisers to Equatorial Guinea to train a

militia and other internal security forces as part of a larger, 500-min

Cuban technical assistance mission.

The year 1973 also saw Cuban missions for the first time

in the Middle East, as the geographic scope of Cuban activities

expanded.

A 200-man advisory group -- including, for the first time,

pilots -- was sent to South Yemen in the spring of 1973, in response

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to a request from that country's ruling party. Cuban aid was re-

quested despite the presence ot a Soviet aid mission, because the

Yomenis were appavently dissatisfied with the help they were receiving

from Moscow. The Cuban mission trained the armed forces and militia,

helped the government set up Committees for the Defense of the

Revolution, modeled on those in Cuba, and gave indirect support to

the Dhofar rebellion in neighboring Oman. After Iranian Special

Forces intervened in the Dhofar rebellion on behalf of Oman, Cuba

sent an additional 500 men to South Yemen. Yemen broke off support

for the Dhofaris in early 1976. Tho Cuban mission -- which may

have been drawn down earlier in support of Angola -- was back to

200 men by spring 1976.

During the October War between Israel and the Arab states,

Cuba sent the equivalent of two battalions of tank troops and a

small number of pilots to serve with the Syrians on the Golan

Heights -- the so-called "solidarity front" -- alongside Moroccans,

Jordanians, and Saudis. The Cubans reportedly participated in the

sporadic fighting that continued on the heights until the Syrian-

Israeli disengagement agreement of late May 1974. The troops were

withdrawn in early 1975 after Syria agreed to renew the mandate of

the U.N. peacekeeping force.

Syria represented the second deployment of conventional

Cuban combat troops. As in Algeria ten years before, Cuba came to

the aid of a friend in distress, and the deployment was similar in

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size, but this time the Cubans brought no equipment with them. As

in Algeria, when the immediate crisis ended, the Cubans pulled out.

Another Cuban mission in the 1970s was sent to Sovnalia,

the first advisers arriving in early 1974. There were 50 by 1975,

and the number increased again in 1976, though reports of 600-1,000

Cuban troops were exaggerated. The Somali mission includes 60-70

pilots, but most of the advisers are probably working with Somali

internal security forces and the various guerrilla groups that are

a part of the politics of the Horn of Africa.

Much the same can be said about the Cuban mission to Iraq,

where perhaps 150 advisers arrived in July and August 1976. In

Mozambique, by mid-1976, about 250 Cuban advisers were training

members of the Zimbabwe People's Army (ZIPA). Their numbers had

increased to perhaps 600 by year's end, and the Cubans appear to be

edginq out the Chinese as the guerrillas' primary advisers.

In connection with the continued fighting in Angola, per-

haps 400 Cubans remain stationed in Congo-Drazzaville, where they

support Cuban troops in Angola and nearby Cabinda. As many as 3,O0O

Cuban troops had been reported transferred to the Congo from Angola

in mid-1976. At the opposite end of Angola, Cuban instructors train

guerrillas of the Southwest Africa People's Organization (SWAPO).

South Africa returns the favor by helping Jonas Savimbi's UNITA, which

is still fighting in Angola.

Finally, in the wake of Fidel Castro's recent trip to Africa,

one mission (thus far, numbering about 50) was sent to Ethiopia to train

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the popular militia, and others, of roughly the same size, have been

sent to Zambia (to train Rhodesian guerrillas) and reportedly to Libya

(to serve as presidential guards).

In summary, Cuban foreign policy in Africa has been consistent

for more than a decade, with Cuban advisers training guerrilla groups

and popular militias, and serving in other internal security roles, in

more than a dozen African (and more recently, Middle Eastern) countries.

That policy included support for the Angolan MPLA.

Active Cuban support for the MPLA dates back to 1965. It

developed not only because Agos':inho Neto and his people had the proper

ideological credentials, but because Cuba considered their rivals -•

FNLA leader Holden Roberto, and his patron, President Mobutu of Zaire --

to be tools of the CIA. Havana further accused Mobutu, in the late 1960s,

ot using Cuban exiles both to run Zaire's transport system and to train

the FNLA. The same "counterrevolutionary forces" arrayed against Cuba

itself were thus seen to be arrayed age'nst the MPLA as well. Success

of the MPLA would be both a victory against colonialism and a defeat for

the enemies of the Cuban revolution.

The Angolan civil war represented the playing out of these and

other long-standing interests in the fate of Portugal's last colony in

Africa. Cuban involvement in that conflict was predictable, given its

specific interests, and its record of military diplomacy in that region,

What the events of 1975 determined was the extent and timing of that

involvement.

-II-

There are a number of good chronologies of events in

Angola in 1975. Suffice it to say here that, as a result of

fighting among the rival liberation groups in March 1975, arms

deliveries to the MPLA by the Soviet bloc were increased. But

what can a largely illiterate guerrilla force do with a growing

inventory of sophisticated weaponry? In May, the MPLA asked for

Cuban advisers. In June, the first 230 Cubans arrived to establish

four training camps in MPLA-held territory in Angola and Cabinda.

This mission was about as large as the one that had been sent to

help the guerrillas in Portuguese Guinea, or the original mission

to South Yemen -- a curious fact, given the greater size of Angola,

unless the initial deployment was what amounted to a standard

training unit.

The scope of the necessary commitment probably became

clear soon after this first contingent of advisers arrived. A

larger contingent of perhaps 1,500 Cubans -- what Havana calls

"instructors" and what the U.S. calls "combat troops" -- reached

Angola aboard Cuban ships in late September and early October.

Some of these troops manned the Cuban training camps, while others

joined MPLA forces in the field. They were, in short, both instruc-

tors and combat troops. But this does not necessarily contradict

Cuba's later claim not to have sent "combat units" until South African

forces had intervened in strength. As in Portuguese Guinea, Cuban

troops appear to have been serving with MPLA units, at this point,

rather uian in units of their own. Even South Africa's account of

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the fighting (as given in a widely reported press release of February

1977) seems to refer to separate Cuban combat units only after the

first week of November. Furthermore, given the ratios of troops to

advisors maintained by Cuba in Portuguese Guinea and South Yemen

(between 20:1 and 50:1), and the size oi the advisory task in Angola

(to train an army of 30,000 men), a 1,500-man advisory group was

not outsized. The effort, though greater, was consistent with

previous Cuban behavior.

The Cuban six-month training timetable was set back when

the South African-supported mechanized column entered the war on

October 23. The Cuban mission, and the war, were soon in serious

danger. Cuba responded with an air/sea trooplift (and the Soviet

Union responded with an arms airlift) as Angola swiftly became Cuba's

first conventional war. The South African intervention was not a

post facto rationalization for Cuban involvement, but a real threat

to Cuban lives and to Cuba's ten-year commitment to the MPLA.

Cuba's Africa policy dates from the mid-1960s, and in its

earlier stages, Cuba's involvement in Angola tracked closely with

that policy. Given that much, what can be said about the concept

of proxy war and the contention that the Cubans merely function

as surrogates for the Soviets in Africa, at Moscow's behest?

Cuba's present policy toward Africa evolved during a

period of tension in Cuban-Soviet relations that has been well docu-

mented in the scholarly literature. Castro crossed Soviet policy

in South America by supportirg armed struggle as the only means of

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bringing on the revolution. His support for guerrilla groups under-

mined the quiet "united front" strategies of the pro-Soviet Latin

communist parties.

At home, Castro flouted the Soviet model of development

and eased out of power most of Cuba's so-called "old communists",

replacing them with his own men. A number of them were accused of

conspiring against the government. This "microfaction", as Castro

called it, wanted to bring Cuba's revolution in line with Soviet

policy, and sought Soviet political and economic pressure against

Castro's "petty bourgeois" regime to that end. The trial and im-

prisonment of the microfaction in early 1968 marked the nadir of

Cuban-Soviet relations. Yet, six months later, Fidel Castro was one

of the few communist leaders outside the Warsaw Pact to endorse the

invasion of Czechoslovakia. In the interim, the Soviet Union had

apparently exerted the kind of ecanomic pressure that the micro-

faction's leaders had sought. Indeed, all Cuban criticism of the

Soviet Union ceased. Beyond that, Cuban support for guerrilla groups

in Latin America began to dry up. By early 1970, guerrilla leaders

in Venezuela and Colombia were castigating Castro's "betrayal" of

proletarian internationalism.

Cuban missions to Africa also tailed off in the late 1960s,

but the drawdown began before the arrest of the microfaction and

the subsequent Soviet clampdown, suggesting that factors other than

Soviet pressure were responsible for this decline. One was probably

the decline of the Cuban economy -- pushed to collapse in 1970 --

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and the dwindling availability of funds to support overseas missions.

Another was clearly the political unrest in the Congo. When the

Cuban mission was asked to leave, it left, and no other countries

asked for Cuban help.

Similarly, a recovering Cuban economy and increases in the

number of targets of opportunity in Africa and the Middle East can

account in part for the rise in Cuban activism in the 1970s. Cuban-

Soviet relations have grown closer, and this cooperation has increased

Cuban capabilities, through Soviet-assisted retraining and reorganiza-

tion of the armed forces. But the increase in cooperation seems not

to have affected Cuban intentions. Indeed, Cuba's Africa policy

today seems indistinguishable from what it was in 1966, when Moscow

and Havana were at odds.

This suggests very strongly that Cuban activities in

Africa have their roots in Cuban, rather than Soviet, interests and

motives, undermining the "proxy" model of Cuban behavior. The record

of Cuban activities, furthermore, shows considerablo precedent for

the initial Cuban deployments to Angola and suggests ample incentives

for Cuban participation in that conflict, apart from any reasons

the Soviets may have had for wanting the Cubans to be there. If

Cuban behavior in Angol~served Soviet interests, Soviet behavior

equally served Cuban interests -- the two sets converged. Many accounts

of Angola have focused on Soviet interests alone. This leads to p

characterization of Angola as a war by proxy -- with patron and

clients, chessmaster and pawns -- when it might better be characterized

as a war waged by allies, which the Marxist allies won.

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Future Cuban activities in Africa will depend in part on

the effects of continued fighting in Angola, and on the unfolding

of events in Rhodesia. But the consistency of Cuban policy, its

relative longevity, and the results of Castro's recent trip suggest

that Cuban activism in Africa is likely to continue. Cuban military

missions in Africa, long part of local politics, appear to be on the

continent to stay.

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CNA Professional Papers - 1973 to Present"

ppI1O3 PP 116 P 2 hsl~Frledheim. Robert L.. "Pollikal Aspects of Ocean Rebhm, Alto S , "An Assetsimet or Military opera.-Eologyi" 48 pp., Feb 1973, published in Who lions Research in the USSR:' 19 pp, Sep 1973, PP9127

Protect% the Oceans, John La~rremrc Hargrove led) (Reprinted from Pmoceedilap. 30th Military opera. Drseulrch, GZPo It., "Ties3a~ Utlop's Questofa(St. Paul West Publ'it. Co., 1974), published by the items Research Symposium (U), Secret Dec 1972) AteSS to He !'afihties ina A"p Pdo to *he JuraAnreriwin Society of Internallortal Law) AlD 757 93or AD) 770 116 War of 147111 w4p-p.. Jul 1974. AD 706 318

pp 104 Pla117 F1311Schitk, Jack M., "A Revisew of James Cable, Gunboat McWhits, Peter 9. and Ratliff. It. Dasied.*' Ds. vow, hw Votea Leekooam Roeret F., -" NOONpeDiplomaicy political Applications of Limited Naval funding, a Lgistics Syatemn Under Mining Attack,"00 of Need 0111 sofr Franwsape." I I *p, Mewiyst afForces," 5 pp., Feb 1973,.(Reviewedin the American 24 pp.,Aug 1976 (to be slonattd for publicationl in *0 30 AN*st Ce~veffloo or tOe AeselePolitical Sciensce Review. Vol. LXVI. Dec 1972) Naval Reaseareh 1401110 Quarterly), Presented at Pnytholosifil Awoieloo. 1914) #As t974.

44th National Meeting, Operations Research Society AD 754 Oilpp His of Amerkca November 1973, AD A030 434Corn, Robert J and Phsillips, Gary R.. "On Optimal *rMivetly of Fkare, PP 129Correetion of Gunfiue Errors," 212 pp., Mar 1973, eeRes~ch OuPgOnted Iin Peor sisri Oftice of Now'. Rd",l Arlon od Ileewita, StWubY, "Pawla U01.AD 761 674 Reorwch ContgractN0001E41680273-0017 oi haoe5heiaa i mePte of

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Sloloff, Peter H.. "User's Guide for Gurreralteed "Iaro. C.L IXrard 4Mak, 3,l, Bp. Ar Saae 97)A 8Factor Analysis program (FACTAN)." 35 pp. Fe~b 1973,oot ( .Rerinted, "from Opmlit:' 18ers Vol.2, Ar Snwr17)A 11973, (Includes an addendusm Publiahed Avg 1974) No. 2, MowrAjr 197,1) PP ts~s h1ur "nt d hes O eeAD) 738 924 DMNý1 0."d i W o "

PP 107 pp 119 Na111al Goaened dIPa. lueesm In WeNUl hib'SUN*Staloff. Peter H.. "Relating Favtor Analytically Do StolofT, Petar and Lockmnu, Robert F, "Develosp OW tW 20 It. 1974, AD 716 3V#lived MeauMe to Exopnoun Variables.' 17 pp. Mar -en of Navy Human Relationsa Qusietierstaire," 2 pp 1311973. AD 73A8 120 PP.. May 1974. (Poblished In American Psychological m .."saybo or v'w e

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MtcCosnnell, Jameis Me and Kelly. Anne M , "Super. scre 120i YokP~ pn ky)A MWra3I9INpower Naval Diplonsacy an the lrtdrrPakistani Cril'" p 214 pp. S Feb 1973. (Published, witht rertjoia.l, 1 Smith, Michael te. and Sebrimper, Renald A..* P 132Survival, NeseIDue 1973) AD 761 673 'Economnic Analysis of the [atrocity DI5ilooedo of Itisinnus. Seesaw D., "Raid Diflompaw ta HowCriminal Activity,' 30 pp.. Jusn 1974, (Presented atN re t ieMre:AFeiisyRpit"7PP10 the Econometric Society Meetings, 3o Dec 1973) W W.,% F heb 93 (Maarkel:a 2 A t 1974w %Wt, I 77

BersvineltuFrndeGJust 7970 (Pr3ei pp. Fob~ 1ha 75, I(Hopier Was2 c t 94 tIRediefr.Frd ."Salaries A Framework for flth AD803 Eeoeontiic Association Conenetion IR AMoy, N.Y.)Study of Tread," & pp. Dec 197.1, (Publishead in .conorrks.North CeamlimSrae &L'rfrrstv AD A 00 I31Review of Inessia and Wealth, Series 1ll, No 4, Dec f113"ocieessdRteinof P13

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PP 112 PP9123 0! NgybsaGinabers, Lawarence H. "ELF Atmrosphere Noise Petersen, Chattle C., "The Soviet Pbrt'Clearlss Opewra ?i' 134Level Staislitics for Project SANGJUINE," 29 pp, Apr tions int Dongladsa, March 1972'Dwomnbor 1973," 35 Gerdresse, Koenteti A.; Kunasoek, Richardi A.;1974, AL) 786 %9 PP., Jun 1974, (Publalats~d In Michae MccGure, et Al. wiseowriaws Komur, "An**sh of Cl~osr Aieeatioaves

(ads) Sovest Naoval Policy: Objectives and Conatrakasta, fat Naval Statiesta11 ad Nava Air Bllatle..", 47 p9, 3pp 113 (Now York: ProperrPubliaw, ,1974) AD 780S40 Jun IV75 (RePrInted flu.is "Hewlatin Wofre the

Ginsberg, Lawreince H, "Propagation Anomaslors fludicomalitlse an MitR" Ooasttarle of thisa Cop.Dunag Project SANGUINE Exeprrmaats." 5 Ppp Apr pp 124 wAtiea oa Armed -erv'ce" U.S. flansita. 93rd Cowt1974, AD ?86 %a Frivliziala, Rtobert L and John, Mary F. *Antics. aresa, lit Seabow, Net 2.22 An 1973)

Petiag! Soviet Behavior at the Third U.N. Law of thoPP 114 Sea Confterenc: USSIR Pooldtosr and Dilssaaa," 37 V 136

blalcesy, Arthur P., "Job Satisfaction and Job pp., 10 Apr 1974, (Publihe in Soviet Naval Pokey, Stallkepa Ulilm. ICyhoertica fad DehopelieTuanovei,"411pp,,1al1973,AD768410 ad Michael WeeGwis., Now York Proegpt) Therapy, I~pp,Jwsa 913

AD) 763 701P1,115 P137

Silverman, Leater P, "The Dtlerirnasnts of Enter. PP9125 hwtwe Chilise C., "The skivia waes ad thepsacy and Elnesiver Admissions to Hospitals.' 143 Welinlead, Robert G.. "Soviet Naval Opseatuiona-Tet Reopening of the bse Cada: ~eee gOPeosprp., 18Jul 1973, AD)766 377 Yearsof Chopa," 17 pp.. Asse 1974, (Pubhloott in Mesa is ties Gulf of Siuez" 3Op. sag 7,

Soviet Naval Policy, ad. Michae MceGwlr; New AlD AOIS 376York: Presser) AD 783 962

IONA Professional Papers with an AD number may be obtained from the National Technical Informnation Service, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, Springfield, Virginia 22151. Other papers are available from the author &t the Center for Naval Anglyse 1401

Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, Virginia 22209.

CNA Professional Papers - 1973 to Prasent (Continued)

pp 139 PP9149 PP9161

Stallings. William.l "BRIDGE: An Interactive Dl.& Sourets, Michael L., "Counterforsie Effiectiverees .A Milich. Michael E. and Peel, Vice Ador. Ray (USN.

leeGnrt~lFacility," 5 pp', Au$ 1975 (Re. Comparison of the To"pi "K" Meanor, and a Comn- Retired), "Fleet Comnmanders. Afloat or Ashtore'" 9

prntd wmIEE Tralsactiona, o Systems. Man. puter Simulahtion," 24 pp.. Mar 1976 (Presented at pp.. Aug 1976 (Reprinted from U.S. N"ie

Ins~titut

and Cybernetics, Vol. 5, No. 3.,May 1973) teneraialStudy Association Meeting, 27 Feb Pincqeddings. Jun 1976) AD k030 45o

1976) AD A.022 591

PP 139 PP 162

Morgan. William F., Jr., "Beyond Folklore rand Fables PP 150 Ffiridlsfim, Robert L., "Parliamentary Diplomacy."

in Forestry to Positive Economrics," 14 pp., (Pwe Kelly, Anne M. and Petersen. Chadle. "Recent 106 pp. Sep 1976 AD A033 306

tabentu at Southern Economic Association Meetings Changes in Soviet Nave~ policy: Prospects f'or Arnoe

November, 1974) Aug 1975, AD A015 293 Lnmitations in the Mediterranean land Indian Ocean," PP 163

28 pp., Ape 1976, AD A 023 723 Lockmran, Robert F., "A MOde for PredictIngl Re.

PP 140 cmit Lownell" 9 ppý. Sep 1976 (Presensted at the 64th

Mahoney. Robert and aieuchnen. Doeila, "SirmiLa. pp 151 annual convention of the American paycwaala~

lion. Experimentation, and Content." 36 pp.. I Sep HiOrowitt. Stanley A., "now Economic Conmequenicea Association, Washington. DR. 4

Sep 1976)

1975, (Publisahed in Simulation A Guone, Vol 6. No. of PoItcal Philooaphsy," A pp., Ape 1976 (Reprinted AD A030 459

3. Sep 1975) from Economic Inquiry, Vol. XIV, No. [,Mar 1976)

Okktti5UkhW Ie'. PP 164

pp 152 Mahoney, Robert I., Jr., "An Aumeatnmenof Mible

PP 141 Mislaid, Maurice M.. "Oni Nth Integral sohutionst of and Elite Pereeptions In FrINc". The United King

Mirrabli, Maurice M... "Geneealisrd Harrilet Poly. the Selseodinger Equationl, Without Utititing I%- donm, Ind the Federal Republic of Geormany, 31 pp..

nomlial,"' 5 pp., Faeb 1976 (Repainted from the cedure.,' 10 pp.. Apr 1976 (Reprinted from Journal Feb 1977 (Preaented at Confetence hieceptlitt

of

Journal of Computationial and Applied Mathematics, of Mathematical Phsysics, Vol 17, No 4 (Apr 1976), the U.S. - Sovit Blalnce and the Political Uses of

Vol I.No 4 (1975). .71-277). %6&575) Military Power- sponsored by Director, Advanced

*Res'aeefh supoepur'd br els Nertosial -Scient'e liResnawh supported by the Notionael science ftemearch Projects Apincy, April 1976) AD 036 599

PP 165

PP 141 PP9153 odoJnM**fetofTaeRsrcis-

"LcAmen. Rohert F, Jeo.n Chritlopher, and lMitrahil. Maurice M.. l"WKB Expansions by Path imort, ams MfSte."Effeclipof Trade ban 1976. on

Shughart. William F. 1I, "Modees for EstimatinS Pro, tategrils. With Applicationa to the Anharmonic limports I ofB Steel."67nce.,Nn e 1976) Pa

mature Leaves and Recruiting District Petforoirnce." Oacillaltie,"" 137 pp., May 1976, (Suboalicil fo aeertILSCneecei e Q6

16 pp., Dec 1975 (Preaented at the RAND Con. publication in Annalsoif ."hyaicsl. AD A02¶s 44 PP 166

loervcac on Defense Manpower. Feb 197b, to he Rfesarvik suppiwh'd In, the' Natiivrnr $S'wri Feldman, Paul, "Impedimenta to the lfeplmentatime

published in tire conference proceeduing) Foendotion of Dealrable Cheanp in the Regalation Of Urinal

AD A 020 443 Public Trnsoetatiott." 12 pp.. Oct 1976,

PP 1S4 AD A033 322

pp143 Mizrata, Maurice M., "On the Senr*Ctneaicll Ex.

Ikirowfit. Stanley and Shermn.o Allan (L.Cdr., USN), painsmioIn Quantum Mechanics for Arbitrary PP 166f - Rosined

"Maintenanice Nl'eruone Effectrueneas na the Navy," Haminllonlans," 19 pp.ý May 1976 (To appearl in the Feldman. Paul, "Whry It's Dlffkcul to Clanada Reglale

13 pp. Ian 15176 (presented &t the RANDConference Jou~rnal of Mathemratical Physics) AD A02S 441 IK~n,"Oct 1976

on Detens Manpowee, Feb 1976 . lio be published inthe ociferkcirr pinceedrulp AD A021 Sal pp 155

pp167Squemn Michael L., "Soviet Foreigs Policy and Thiud Kleinmaun. Samuel, "ROTC S~eic Catowtnisnt

a

PP 144 World Nalituisn," 26 pp. Jun 1976 (Prepared for commant," 4 pp.. Nov 1976. (To he published110 in

Dutach Wilhltr J., "Ther Navy of the Republic of oresenatshori at the Midee-n Political Sioner Ainsiot I' public Choicet, Vol XXIV, Fall 1976) AD A033 305

China - History, Problem,. and Prospects",' 66 pp.. lion mettioga. Apr ",.1976) AD A028 318l

Aol 1976, (To be pebtshed in "A Gotsit to Asiatic pp6ta

Pleeta,' ed. by Beery M 21echonan. Naval Institute PP 156 Lockaman, Robeet F , "Relvelidatioe% of ('NA Suppoe

Press) AD A.030 460 Stallings. William, "Appiriehes to Chninse Character Paros;WtelSlection Meinimrels" 36 pp.. Nov 1976

Recognition," 12 pp., Jun 1976 (Reprinted trorn

PP 145 Pattern Recognition (Peigmiion Not'), Vol 8. Pp PP 169

Kelly, Anne M , 'Poe9 Visit and the "Ilnernuto"Ilst 87.98, 1976) AD A028 692 Jacobson. Louis S., "Earnings Lawsee of Workers

Mission" of the Soonet Navy," 3,6 pp. Apr 1976Dipae frm anacungIdsil. 8 p,

AD A23 46 pp157Nov 1976. (Deliverd as ILAs Conkfeee in DecMorgan. Williom F. "tUnemploymnta and the 1976)

pp 146 Pentagon budget Is There Any~thing as the Empty

Fit'moua. Vernon E.. "Alteenstlves for Increasing Pork hereil"' 20 pp, Aug 1976 AD A.030 45 5 PP 170

Acrew so Scientific Journal~s:' 6 pp.,~Apr 1975 Prechllag, Frank P., "A lime Series Ainalysis of

(Presented at she 1975 IEEE Conference on Scientific pp Is$ Labor Turnover," Nov 1976. (Delivered at ILASII

Journals, Cherry tibll, N C., Apr 2&-30. published in Haskell. LCdr Richard D, (USN). "Experimental Conference in Dec 1976)

IEEEI Tranuations on Professnonall Commnunication. Valiidation of Probability Predictions " 25 pp , Aug

Vol PC'. Il,No 3, Sep 1973) AD A021 798 1976 (Preseolad at the Military OpciAItons RCMFarh ppl'i1

Society Meetingl. Fall 1976) AD A030 458 Rlalston, James M., "A Difftsion Model foe G&? Red

P eP lr 14h7 ta. Lglliie nPoecig p 5 LED Degradatloas" 10 pp., Nov 1976. (Pablishd in

Olahsier , Journalan ofss Aliaves iynca

VLctn P 5 47, pp 4511.4527.

of mStructures," 33 pp, Jun 1976 (Prepared Mcconnaell Janse M, "The Goruhkov Articles, TV Joctna ofA976) Pyc,

unde task order N,00014-6&1A.0D91-0023 foe ONI) New Goeslskon Book and Thlsi Relation to Policy,* Oc196

AD A029 389 93 pp. Jul 1976 (To he printed to Soviet Nrvel P 7

Inflerair omerk id oriaai iriivsiet, c by Claneen, Kathleen P., "Waimln~tagly nt Inaanc and

PP 148 M MccGwlee aind J. McDonnell. New York Presser) th Legh of Uneployment." Doc 1976, (Presented

McConnell, Janese M , "IdiltaryotiaTkafth AD A.029 227 at the University ol Rochester Labor Woekulnp on 16

Soviet Navy in War mid Peace." 62 pp., Dec 1975No196(Published in Soviet Oceans Devielopment Study Of PP

No6076

Senate Commrrece commnittee October 1976) Wilson, Desmonds P, Jr., "The U.S Stixth Fleet and P 7

AD A022 590 the Conventional Defeins of Europe," S0 pp. Sep pp Noeon73d ifribr

1976; (Submitted for publication In Adeliphi Papers. Kleminman Samuel D.,"ANtonRiaLlfres

1.1SS Lndo) D 0304int the Addsd.Wocka/DieUhlled-WO&WO Contro

1.1 S Lndon ADP.03457veiny,' 2 pp. Dec 1976, (Pubisbhoed inthise AmericanEconoinsit, Vol XX. No I, Spring 1976)

-2-

CNA Professional Papers - 1973 to Present (Continued)

PP 174 PP' 185Mahoney. Robert B , Jr ,. "A Comiparisonr of ihe Kassing, David, "'New Technology arnd Naval Forces pp 195Bitrookings and International Incidents Projeos," 12 in the South Atlantic," 22 pp (This paper wur the lreoiling, Frank, "Unemployment Insurance Taxespp reb 1977 AD 017 206 basis for a presentation ruode at rthe Institute for aird Labor Turnover: Summary of Theoretical

Foreign Policy Anulyscs, C'ambridge, Mass , 28 April Findings," 12 pp. (Reprinted from Industrial andtop 15 197) [ahot Relation, Review. Vol 30, No. 40. Jut

Levine, Daiiiel, Stoltrff, Peter arid Spritill, Nancy.197"Public Drug Treatineni and Addict Conici," June PP 1861976, (Published in Journal of Legeal Studies. Vol Mizinhl., Maurice M . "Phase Space Integral%, With pp 3965. Nit 2) out Unfititng Procedure," 31 pp., May 1977, (Sub. Ralston, J. M. and Loerimae, 0. G.. "Degradation of

nutted fire publication in Journal of Mathematical Bulik Eloctolr mbownlaeant Efflcimcksy in Zn, 00opedPP l7tr Physics) aP LED's." July 1977, 3 pp. (Reprinted froes

Felix, Wendi, "Correlates of Retentioin and Pro WBEE Tiarrisatiotts ott Electronr Davaiesa. Vol.rariroir liii USNA G'raduates," Itt pp ,Mar 1977 PP 197 MD24, No. 7, July 1977)

Coite. Russell C., "Nomography foe Opera linus Re.'I' 177 search," 35 pp., April 1977, (Presented atithe Joint pp 199

Llsirian.n Robert F and Warner, John T., 'Pie National Meeting of the Operutuotis Research Dutich, Wllim J3 "Revolutioan Prom A F A.R -ddiring Atfritinur A Test rut Alternative '.p Sootety ouf Amenica and The Institute for Manage. Thue Cuban Armend Forces in Africa and thre Middlaepiwoutles." 13 ps; Mar 1977 (Presentied a1t fhe nient Services, Sun Francisco, Cahlornia. 9 May East," Sep 1977. 16 pp.OSD/ONR Criti reire oint I iilitird Attition Xeroox 1977)Irnternatioiial Training Ce'nter,, Lcesburir. Virginia. pp 2034 7 April 1977) pp 1111 Duirchs. Wtllsinm J . "Tires Cuban MIliteny in Africa

Dutch, William IJ, "Infor'natimo Processirng and and Thor Middle Esau Prom Algeria to Angola."IT' 1714 Oul~onele Forecasting for Multilaterul Negoutiatirona Sep 1977, 67 pp

Kleiinirani. Qi~inuel 1) "Aiu I virlutritn rif Nivy Uir Testing One Appioach," 53 pp. May 1917 (Pre.trosiritit'd Line Ot1kt or ,ressin~v Pingr~irra." 21 pp paied for preseintation to the 18th Annual CownvertApo! 1477 (l'in Ir preseirted at tho NATO Cii lio'n offit th te rrrnational Studies Association,totoire nour Mirnnlnnwer Plannring u1nd Otgrvufatrirr Ctisre.Park Plasa Hotel, St Louis, Matuoun, MarchDe'signr, Sirosi, hinly. !0 June 0t77) lb 7n, 1977)

PPV 179 ISO8Stolrilf, Peter 11 aird PIIIIut Stephen I , "VOr..ile A Code, Russull C , "Error Detecticon in ComputerierdModet for Personnel Inventoriy Planniang Ur.~et lnfarnsattvn Retrieval Data fltes," Jaly, 1911, 13Changing Mariagemient p'olity," 14 pp Atirit 10a71, pp., Tii he presented At tihe Sixth Cruanfeld IntterITo hea p'reniedl at the NATO Coniereit on Mao natsional Conifereee on Mecharuined Infoemationapouwer Plroning and Otpruitiort~iri Ieblon Siresi. Storage, and Retinevall Systema. Cianfsiled Institutetily, 20 June 1i9771 of Techtnology Cianfield, fladforJ, FrSglsed. 26.29

July 1977PP 1110

Ilniorwitt. Staniley A and cinefirrnao Allan. 'The pp 11i)('luractarensait 'A Naval Polei.uinel And P'eisonnel Mabiouney, Rintoett It, Jr , "ltaropean PenteptiorisPeritoiiiiatic" 16 ppr April 1977, (to ho preuziled And l~air West ('ornipertiton," 96 pp., July 1977at the NATO Coniereecer on Manloower Planning tPiepated fort presentartion at the Annual risertinsand Orginrtttion Design, Stiesa Italy, 20 June of tic~ Interinatioiial Studies Aussiciationr St Louis.1977) MO., Maith. 1477)

Hitlut Srtj'hen J arid SinIlot Nic Pe "'Air Inventory Ssn'.on, Ronild, "I ti Independent r reld AssignPlanning Model for Nary I rntrvttd Fenoninel,'' 15 HinCur lie Mart's Vicw*,' August 19",. 2s pppp , May 1977, (Prepared for presentation at theJoint National Meetrt'g of the Opertaiotns Reseati.1 p PP 9SSrt~iety of Amcni~a arnd The tinstirtie toi Manage Iloleti, Arlene. "Lilects of Unsemnploymenit Introut Sxuerroe 9 May 1977. Sari l'rantucov ('Air vararke Loittlenretr on Duration and Job Searchformal Outinotre,' August 1977, 6 pp., lI~eptrinted front

lIndustinal arid f.Abovi Relatioans Review, Votl 30.pp 182 Nun 4, Jul 19771

Moirtay, Rusacli. 2nd, "The Outfit tot Itir PerfectSitudy or My firnst 11384 Days at ('NA," 57 .p , Pt' 191

April 1Q77 Horowitz. Sianley A "A Model oi Unemploy

"turet Insurairte arid the Wink Test." August 1977,pp' 1t3 7 pl, I Reprintied from lIndustrial arid tabhot Re

baussin. David. "Changes an Soviet Navat t-orees," tattoos Review Vol f4t, No 403, Jul 1477)13 pp., Noveomber, 1976, (Tot he published as a,hrapter it a book publishsed by lie National PP 194Sttateipc Information Centier) ('tannin Kathleen P , "The Efflects of Usemploy

menri Insuranc~e on the Dunratton of Unemplotyment

PP 164 and Subsequent Earnings," August 1977, 7 ppInockinan, Roheil F , "Anr Overview of the (Reprinited trin Industrial and Labor Relations050/ONtO Conferete ~ rat First Term Enlisted Review Vol 10. No 40. Jul 1977)Attrition," 22 pp. laJne 1977, (Presented to the39th MORS Working Groiup oni Manpower andPersonnel Plannitng, Aniraptuti. Md., 28 30 June1977)

,3