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7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
1/106
.
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
2/106
.
2008
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
3/106
2008
:
:35716620-35678216-3571385235678218)202(+
:35703620)202(+
:www.capscu.eng.cu.edu.eg:www.Pathways.cu.edu.eg
:8476/2008
:ISBN 977-403-303-5
.
http://www.pathways.cu.edu.eg/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.pathways.cu.edu.eg/7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
4/106
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".
/
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.
:
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.
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1
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
5/106
1. .2. .
3. .
4. .
5. .
6. .
7. .
8. .
9. .
10. .
11.
12. .
13. .
14.
15. .
16.
17. .
18. .
19.
2
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
6/106
.1974.1984
.
. ...
.
.
" "
.
1020191213
200210201912-1162005
10201912-2272006.
.. .
2008
3
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
7/106
4
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
8/106
" "
.
:
.
.
:1. -2. -
3. -4. -
5. -6. -
" "
.
2017)
2002-2005) (2006-2010(
18
.
.
.
.
5
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
9/106
.
..
6
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
10/106
13
:5
1-15
1-26
1-37
1-47
1-58
1-69
1-7101-811
1-911
:15
2-115
2-216
2-316
2-420
2-522
:37
3-1373-2383-346
:55
4-155
4-2564-356
4-458
4-563
4-665
4-767
:75
5-175
5-2( )78 5-379
7
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
11/106
5-4( )88
5-592
5-694
5-795
5-899
:10
7
6-1107
6-2108
6-3109
6-4109
6-5111
12
1
8
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
12/106
)5-1:(101
)5-2:(102
)3-1:(49
)6-1:(107
)6-2(110
9
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
13/106
10
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
14/106
35/1:
:
1..2..3..4..5..6..
1
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
15/106
35/1:
2
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
16/106
35/1:
. ( )
-
-.
.
.
.
.
.
.
3
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
17/106
35/1:
4
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
18/106
35/1:
1-1
:
)
Economically Justifiable. (.
.
)
(
.
)
. (
.
. ( )
.
1-2
( )
.
" " " "Pre-feasibility.
Comprehensive Feasibility Study
5
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
19/106
35/1:
Market Viability.
.
.
.
:
1.( )2.
3. 4.
1-3
:
1.2.3.4.5.
6.7..
1-4
.
: : .
" " .Roadmap.Blueprint
.
6
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
20/106
35/1:
.
1-5
Pre-Feasibility Study
.
.
.
.
.
:
-.
- .-.--
.
-.
.
Investment Promoter.
1-6
7
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
21/106
35/1:
:
1-6-1
.
.
.
.
1-6-2
.
1-6-3
.
.
1-7
.
)
.(:
1.
8
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
22/106
35/1:
.
2.-
.
.
3.
( )
.
.
1-8
:
-
- ----.
1-9
:
------
-
9
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
23/106
35/1:
. :
1-9-1
)Ein Mann Gesellschaft( ) (
.
.
1-9-2
.
.
1-9-3
:
.
.
1-9-4
.
.
.
1-9-5
10
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
24/106
35/1:
.
1-9-6
: .
( )
.
.
.
1-9-7
.
.
11
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
25/106
35/1:
12
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
26/106
35/1:
2-1
. ( )
)
.(
( )
) )
.(
.
.
2-2
.
) .
. (
.
. .
13
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
27/106
35/1:
2-3
:
2-3-1
)Holding Other ThingsConstant(
.
.
.
.
2-3-2
.
.
2-3-3
( )
14
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
28/106
35/1:
.
2-3-4
( )
.
.
2-3-5
( )
.
.
2-3-6
)
(
Conspicuous Consumption
.
.
.
Inferior Goods
.
2-3-7
15
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
29/106
35/1:
Price TakerPrice Maker
.
2-3-8
.
.
. ( )
.
.
2-3-9
.
2-3-10
.
.
.
2-4
.
( )
( )
.
.
16
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
30/106
35/1:
2-4-1
.
.
:
---
-.
.
.
2-4-2
.
1-
:
-:
.
-:.
-:.
Emailed Investigation
.
2-
17
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
31/106
35/1:
)(
. .
.
.
.
.
SamplesStatistical Sampling
.
.
.
2-5
)
(
.
:
2-5-1
.
:
1-
:
-
18
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
32/106
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
33/106
35/1:
)24001800(/1800)40003600(/3600=600/1800
3600/400=3
2008
200740002400 20084400
3=)2400(/2400)44004000(/4000=)2400(/2400
400/4000=)2400(/240010/1
= ( )1560
= =1560150. =
.
2-
:
/ ( ) =
.
:
) + ( ) + =
.(
) = :1+
.(
:
. =
)2-2:(2007
20082009:
352%
200750
30
10
:
( - )+ =
=50) +3010= (70)
(
= / =70/35=2
2008=2007)1= ( +35)1,02= (
35.7
2008=2007= ( )35.7)2(
=71.4
2009=35.7)1.2= (36.4
20
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
34/106
35/1:
2009=2008)2= (36.4)2= (72.83
.
3-
( )
:
)2-3:(
200730:
200420052006
( )706040 ( )6000800010000
:
20052006=)100008000(/8000)40-
60(/60=2000/800060/20- =0.75
0.75=)-10000(/10000)30-40(/40
( )11875.
.
4-
)
. (
.
.
.
:
1.
2.
3.( )
:
1.
+ =
.
2.
.
5-
21
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
35/106
35/1:
.
( )
( )
.
.
( )
)
.(1+1
( ).( )
.
( )
.
.
)2-4:(19861997
:
198660110
198760135
198860120
198962120
199062140
199162130
199262135199364150
199464145
199570170
199670185
199770160
:
727476
.
22
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
36/106
35/1:
:
.
:
=
( ) =
( ) =( ) =
:
22
1986
601103600121006600
1987601353600182258100
1988601203600144007200
1989621203844144007440
1990621403844196008680
19916213038441690080601992621353844182258370
1993641504096225009600
1994641454096210259280
19957017049002890011900
19967018549003422512950
19977016049002560011200
1276
6
170
0
4906
8
24610
0
10938
0
= :766=63.8
12
= :1700=141.6
12
:
23
=
]2( )2] [2( )2[
-( ) ( )
=
]2( )2] [2( )2[
-( ) ( )
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
37/106
35/1:
=863.3=0.91
950.9
)0.91(+)1-1(
.19982000.
:
:
. =
. =
= ( ) =
= ( ) =
. ( ) =
. =
. =
. =
24
=
]49068)766(2] [246100)1700(2[
1212
109380-7661700
12
=
]4906848896.3] [246100
240833.3[
109380-108516.6
=
]171.6] [5266.6[
863.3
=+
) ( ) (
) ( ) (- )(
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
38/106
35/1:
. =2. =
2. =
. =
:
=141.6+0.91 ) 63.8(
=141.6+0.91]5.3 ) 63.8[(
=141.6+4.8306.3
1998
19992000:727476
:
1998=141.8+4.872306.3
)1998= (141.6+345.6306.3=180.9)1(
1999=141.8+4.874306.3
)1999= (141.6+355.2306.3=190.5)2(
2000=141.6+4.876306.3
)2000= (141.6+364.8306.3=200.1)3(
:
=141.6+4.8306.3
6( ) -
.
:
=123.
:
21
3132
25
=141.6+
0.9149068) 766) (63.8(
346100) 1700) (141.6(- )63.8(
=141.6+
0.91190
5380- )63.8(
28.3
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
39/106
35/1:
:21)32(=
2
2
: =4632=34843
=6796=106
2=976=5779
213132:
21=0.8731=0.7732=0.80
:
1)32(:21)32(=
=0.84( )
0.84
.
7-Regression Analysis
.
: .
1
.
2.
3( )
.
)2-5:(1998
100000:
151998
5000.
250000
40000.
3-
50000:
199820000.
199940000.
26
221
+222
221
31
32
1232
)587(2) 0.77(2-20.82
0.80
1802
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
40/106
35/1:
200050000.
1998
:
11998 2( )
55000
\=50005=250003
50000
4000040000
4
199820000 \ =150001998
( )
.
)Projected Products(:
1.
2.
3..
4.
5.
6.
: .
:
:
.
. = =
:
:
+ + =
+ +
. +
27
100000
8500015000
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
41/106
35/1:
=
:
-
. -.-.-.-
.
)
( ) (
..
.
.
.
28
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
42/106
35/1:
.
.
3-1
.
.
.
:
-
.
-)
(
( )
.
.
-.
3-2
29
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
43/106
35/1:
:
1.
2.
3. 4.
5.
3-2-1
.
:
1-
.
:
-:
.
-:
.
.
.
-: :
-:
)(
.
-:
.
)
(
.
.
30
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
44/106
35/1:
)
(
.
.
.
:
:
1-
. .. .( )
.
)
.(
( )
.
2-
. .
.:
:
.
. /
.
.
( ) -
.
( )
) .
. (
:
.
. ( / )
31
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
45/106
35/1:
.
.
.
..
.
:
.
.:
)
( )
.
.
. - -
.
:
.
.
3-2-2
.
Maximum Capacity
Normal Capacity)
(
32
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
46/106
35/1:
.
.
( ).
.
.
Break Even Analysis.
( ).
:
1-
.
.
2-
::
:
:
.
3-
.
.
( )
Diseconomies
33
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
47/106
35/1:
.
3-2-3
Labor Intensive
Capital IntensiveKnowledge Intensive
( )
( )
..
:
. ( )
.
.
-
Process Chart( )
.
.
-
:
---( )--
:
1..
2..
34
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
48/106
35/1:
3..4..5.
.
6...
. ( )
3-2-4
:
.
.
-:
--
-
.
-
.
( )
.
-:
.
-:
.
.
3-3
35
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
49/106
35/1:
:
3-3-1Opportunity Cost
.
.
.
.
.
3-3-2Implicit Costs & Explicit Costs
.
.
3-3-3
:
-
.
. .
-
.
.
.
:
: -
.
.
36
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
50/106
35/1:
: -
.
:
1: Fixed Costs
. .
.
2: Variable Costs.
.
.
3: Total Costs
. .
4: Average Costs
.
:
: -Average Total Costs.
: -Average Fixed Costs
.
: -Average Variable Costs
.
5: Marginal Costs.
.
100021
105050.
.
.
. .
)3-1:()1(
)2(
)3(
)4(
)5(
)6(
)7(
)8(
37
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
51/106
35/1:
2020020220100122-
70200402405.721.146.960.8
140200602602.860.863.700.56
230200802801.740.702.440.44
34020010030010.180.581.760.364382001203200.920.541.460.60
5202001403400.760.541.300.48
5802001603600.680.581.240.66
6222001803800.640.601.220.98
6482002004000.620.661.241.58
6602002204200.600.721.223.34
6702002404400.580.761.344.55
6782002604600.580.821.404.44
6862002804800.580.861.445.55
6942003005000.580.861.445.55
3-3-4
.
.
:
1
: .
.
.
.
. -
.
:
-
.
.
.
38
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
52/106
35/1:
.
-
.
.
2-
:
.
. .
.
. -
.
.
.
.
3( ) -
.
.
.
.
.
.
:
.
39
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
53/106
35/1:
( )
.
.
4-
( )
5%20%
.
:
( ) .
.
.
)3-1:(:
90000.
40000.
30000.
5000
84.
:
1. -
2. -
:
1: -
=
+ +
=8+4=12=3.
. =
) =40000+30000 (3
=700003=210000
=
+
=90000+210000=300000
40
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
54/106
35/1:
2:
=
( )
=30000050000=250000
3-3-5
.
41
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
55/106
35/1:
.
.
.
4-1
.
.
.
.
4-2
:
1.
2.
3.
4.
.
42
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
56/106
35/1:
4-3
:
1.
)
Common StocksPreferred Stocks(
.
.
.
.
2.Retained Earnings
.
.
3.
.
.
4.
.
:
-Long Term Financing
. .
.
43
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
57/106
35/1:
.
-Short Term Financing .
Trade CreditBank Credit.
.
.
4-4
:
4-4-1
.
: :
.
:
=
:
] =
+ [
:
)4-1:(100
15.
.
:
44
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
58/106
35/1:
=1
.=15
.=0.15=15%
100
:
=1.+
. =
)4-2:(100
13
5.%:.
:
. =
=1.+=13.+0.05=0.18=18%100
: :
.
:
:
=1
.
. =
)4-3:(100
10%
12.:.
:
=1
.=12
=12
=
1001090
0.133=13.3%
)
(:
45
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
59/106
35/1:
=
.
:
=
+ .
.
.
- -
.
4-4-2
:
:
) =1. ( -
:
=
=
=
:
) =1 ( -)+(:
. =
.
.
4-4-3
( )
.
46
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
60/106
35/1:
.
.
:
) =1.(
:
. =
. =
. =10
1002%
:
=10100)1-2= (%10)10098%(=10,3.%
4-4-4
.
:= ) =1) (1( -= ) +1) (1( +
:
. =
. =
. =
. =
.
4-5
:
47
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
61/106
35/1:
1.
( )
)(.
2.
.3.
.
4.
.
5.
.
.
6.
.
7.
.
8.
.
9.
( )
.
.
10.
( )
:
) ( ) =
.(
( )10%
15%
5%
.
4-6
48
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
62/106
35/1:
.
( )
:
.
)
(.
:
1.)
(
2.:
. =
3..
4.. 5.
.
.( )
)4-4:(
.
( )
(%)
60017
20015
50013
60012
10011
2000---
49
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
63/106
35/1:
:
14( ) %14%)
(
16. %
(%)
(%)
6006002000100=
0.30%
170.3017%=
5.1
2002002000100=
0.10%
150.1015%=
1.5
5005002000100=
0.25%
130.2513=
3.25
6006002000100=
0.30%
120.3012=3.6
1001002000100=
0.05
110.0511=
0.55
2000100%14%
4-7
4-7-1
.
:
1.
.
2.
.
3..
- -
50
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
64/106
35/1:
.
)
) (
: ( .1
10( )
.
.
.2
. .3:
-( )-
.
-)
(
-
-
.
.
.
.
-
-:
1-
.
51
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
65/106
35/1:
.
.
. .
2-
. :
-( )
.
-. =
-+ ( ) =- =
3-
- -
.
4-
:
-:
.
.
. =
)
(
.
-:
52
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
66/106
35/1:
.
.
5-
.
.
)4-5:(
80000.
:
150000
200000.
:
Sunk Cost
150000
=150000.
200000
.
=200000.
4-7-2
1-
: -
: .
53
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
67/106
35/1:
-.
-
.
. -
-
.
-( )
.
. -:
. .
.
:
-
-
.
-
.
-)
.(
-
Depletion Rate.
2-
:
-:
.
-:
.
54
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
68/106
35/1:
-:
.
)4-6:(
.
12345
2000
0
3000
0
4000
0
4500
0
5000
0
22.5344
122.52.753
20002000200020002000
-570000.
-60000
.
-20.%
:
=
=600005=12000.. =
( ) =
:
12345
2000
0
3000
0
4000
0
4500
0
50000
22.5344 4000
0
7500
0
1200
00
1800
00
20000
0
:
1400002000120002600020%5200
2750002000120006100020%1220
0
312000020001200010600020%21200
55
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
69/106
35/1:
418000020001200016600020%3320
0
520000020001200018600020%3720
0
:
12345
-4000
0
7500
0
1200
00
1800
00
20000
0
-4000
0
7500
0
1200
00
1800
00
20000
0
70000-----
-20002000200020002000
-52001220
0
2120
0
3320
0
37200
7000072001420
0
2320
0
3520
0
39200
)
70000
(
3280
0
6080
0
9680
0
1448
00
16080
0
. - =
56
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
70/106
35/1:
.
.
.( ) ( )
.
5-1Pay-Back Period
.
.
.
5-1-1
1-
:
=
: + =
( + ) =
2-
.
)5-1:(70000
:
115000
218000317000
57
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
71/106
35/1:
420000
516000
:
11500015000
21800033000
31700050000
42000070000
51600086000
4
70000.
5-1-2
:
1.
.
2.
.
3.
.
.
4.
.
5-1-3
:
1.
.
:
) + =
(
2.( ) .
)
(
58
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
72/106
35/1:
- -
.
5-2)(Average Rate of Return
:
=
:
= ( )
:
=)+(2
:
=2
.
:
1.
.
2..
:
1.)
(
.
2..
Timing.
3.:
.
4..
59
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
73/106
35/1:
5-3Net Present Value
.100
.
5-3-1
10010%
110)100+)10010(%
:) =1( +
:
. =
. =
. =
. =
.
8=100) 1+0.10(8=10010%8=
1002.14358=214.36
( )
5%
100
= =100) 1005= (%95.
:
) =1( +
:
. =
.( ) =
. =
.( ) =
=100) 1+0.5(5=1005%
=1000.7835=78.35.
60
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
74/106
35/1:
. =
.
:
..
:
=)1(
) =1( +
=1) /1( +1+2) /1( +
2+ .+) /1( +)2(
:
=
==
12=
( ) =
1.
:
-.
-=.
2.
.
)5-2:(
:
-10000060%40. %
-:
310000
420000
540000
640000
730000
820000
:
10: %
1-.2-10%12%
61
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
75/106
35/1:
:
*
10.909)00060()54540(
20.826)00040()33040(
30.75100010751040.6830002013660
50.6210004024840
60.5640004022560
70.5130003015390
80.467000209340
5720
*10%
1.5720.
2: ..
12: %
10.893)00060()53580(
20.797)00040()31880(
30.712000107120
40.6360002012720
50.5670004022680
60.5070004020280
70.4520003013560
80.404000208080
)1020(
:
.
)5-3:()
(
1-0008000085
2-55
3--0007
4-
1
2
3
45
1500
20000
24000
3000022000
12000
18000
25000
3200020000
62
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
76/106
35/1:
-9.%
. -
:.
:1. -
1)00080()00080(
10.9170001513755
20.8420002016840
30.7720002418528
40.7080003021240
50.6500002214300
4663
2. -
1)00085()00085(
10.9170001211004
20.8420001815156
30.7720002519300
40.7080003222656
50.6500002717550
666
:
.
)5-4:(:( )
00010--
100040--
200050--3-0001500035
4-0002000055
5-0003076467
6-0001000050
:
80%
10%
15. %
63
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
77/106
35/1:
:
1-.
0008080%10%0.080002020%15%0.03
0.11
= =0.11
2-11.%
1)00010()00010(
10.901)00040()36040(20.812)00050()40600(
30.7310002014620
40.6590003523065
50.6934646727555
60.5350004021400
:
.
)5-5:(:
0005000050
35
13%13%
1
2
00025
00028
00018
00020
64
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
78/106
35/1:
3
4
5
00025
-
-
00017
00015
0004
:
::
=4444.
=4738
3
5
.
:
)5-6:(( ) ( )
:
( )( )
1
2
3
4
5
)00011(
0003
0003
0003
0003
0003
)7300(
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
10: %
( )=373
( )=369
( )
( ) ( )
)113737669=3704(
.
)110007300=3700(
.
5-3-2
65
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
79/106
35/1:
:
1..2..
3.( ) 4..
5-3-3
:
1.( )
( ) ( ) ( )
.
2..
3.
.
4..
5-4( )Profitability Index
( ) .
).(
5-4-1
:
=
=
.
:
1..
2..
66
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
80/106
35/1:
3.
.
.
)5-7:(: 1: -
1
2
3
4
00020
-
-
0005
-
-
0007
00010
0009
0005
210.%
3. . :
:
12000020000--
10.909--70006363
20.826--100008260
30.7515000375590006759
40.683--500034152375524797
=
=24797=1.04/
23755
:
1.04.
)5-8:(: ( ) ( )
( )( )
00060
400020
00075
300030
67
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
81/106
35/1:
:
9.%
:
:( )=20000
49.% 200003.240=64800
=64800
=1.08/
60000
:( )=30000
39.%
300002.531=75930
=75930
=1.01/
75000 :( ) ( )
( )1.08
( )1.01( )
.( ) ( )
5-4-2
.
5-4-3
: - -
1.
.
2..3.
.
4..
)5-9:(( ) ( )
:
( )( )
1200010000
80006500
:
.
:
68
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
82/106
35/1:
( )( )
1200010000
80006500
40003500
1.51.54) ( )
4000) ( ) (
1.54.(
( ) ( )
1500)8000
6500(2000)
)1200010000(
.
5-5Internal Rate of Return
( ) ( )
.
:
-.-
.
.
5-5-1
""Trial and Error
:
) + =
. (
.
.
69
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
83/106
35/1:
)5-10:(
:( )
( )( )
165001500 25002000
35002000
42004200
:
1: .
165001500)5000(
250020001500
350020001500
420042004000
2.
:
18%17%16%15%
1)5000()4235()4237()4310()4350(
215001077106911151134
31500914937962987
440002164213522082288
)180()105()25(+59
16%15: %
=15) +159) (25+59= (15) +5984= (15+
0.7=15.7%
.
5-5-2:
1.. ( )
2.
.
3.
.
70
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
84/106
35/1:
5-6
--
.
.
Uncertainty.
..
:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
.
5-7Sensitivity Analysis
.
.
.
.
71
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
85/106
35/1:
( )
.
5-7-1
.
.
:
)5-11:( :
85005
300010.%
:
1.:
)2315(
:
= =
=
=
=
=30003.605
=10815
)8500) (10815(
27.2%
.
2.:
21.4) %23000) (2358(
= )3.6058500(
.
3.:
)611(
72
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
86/106
35/1:
20%
.
4: .
22%
:
850010815+27.2
30002358-21.4
54-21
12%22%+83
( )
.
.
5-7-2
:
1.
2
.
3
Optimistic ValuesPessimistic Values.
5-7-3
1
.
73
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
87/106
35/1:
2Auto Correlation
. 3
.
4
.
5-8Break Even Analysis
5-8-1
( )
.
.
( ) :
.
.
5-8-2
.
:
: . :
. =
1-:
...
.
2-:
. ...
5-8-3
1..
2.
74
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
88/106
35/1:
3..
5-8-4
: 1-
:
-
:
( )
: ( )
. ( ) -
( ) -
.( )
( ) ( )
.( )
)5-1.(
)5-1:(
) -1. (
-1
.
75
1
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
89/106
35/1:
-)1(
)1. (
-
= ( )( )= )(
==
( )
)(
.
)(=
)5-2. (
)5-2:(
:
-)1. (
-)1(( )1
( )
.
76
1
.
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
90/106
35/1:
)
(
.
2-
:
= -
( )
= -
=
:
=+
( )
=
=( )
.
. .
:
-
-.
-.
-.
.
)5-12:(:
=100000= .10
=15.. :
1=
77
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
91/106
35/1:
=100000=20000
15-10
2=
==2000015=300000
)5-13(:120000
60000480001.
:
5000.
:
=
=120000=120000
1
=
=48000=96000
10.5
=
=960001=96000.
5000:
=+
=48000+50000=106000
10.5
5000
=1060001=106000
)5-14(:53
600. .
10000
:
1= 600=300
5-3
210000
=600+10000=5300
53
78
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
92/106
35/1:
79
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
93/106
35/1:
.
.
6-1
)6-1.(
)6-1:(
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
6-2
:1. -
80
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
94/106
35/1:
2-
.
3-
.
4( ) -.
5-
:
-
.
.
-.
-
.
-
-
.
-..
6-3
.
.
)
(
.
..
.
.
81
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
95/106
35/1:
.
6-4
( )
.
.
:
:
.
: .
)6-2(
.
)6-2:(
( )
: -
-
-
-
-
.
. -
. -
-
.
-
/
. /
-
.
-
)
.( /
. -
-
.
-
.
.
82
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
96/106
35/1:
( ) "
"
Environment Market( ) .
.
6-5
.
:
1.
.
2.
.
. - -
3.
.
4..
5..
.
83
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
97/106
35/1:
6..
.
.
7.
.
.
8.
.
9.
Internet.10.
." "
11.
.
.
.
.
.
12.
.
13.:-
.
84
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
98/106
35/1:
-
.
-
.
14.:
.
.
.
.
.
15.
.
.
10%
.
3
( )
.
: .
.
16.
10%13
19%
.
17.) :Balance Sheet(
" .Profit and loss statement"
85
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
99/106
35/1:
"Income Statement:"
Net Income""/ .
."Cash Flow Projections:"
) .
(
.
.
18.: :
.
:
.
19.
:
-
.
-
.
-
.
.
-
.
.
20.
.
86
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
100/106
35/1:
21.
. .
-)Zero-base(
5%
5. %
-.
-
.
-
.
-:
.
-:
.
22.( )
.
.
23.
.
.
.
.
24.
.
.
( )
87
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
101/106
35/1:
:
.
25. :
) .
:
.(
26.
.
.
27.:
.
28..
. .
29.
.
.
30.
.
.
31.
.
.
88
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
102/106
35/1:
.
32.)(
Trial and Error
.
) .
(
.
89
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
103/106
35/1:
90
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
104/106
35/1:
:
1.1982.
2.
2002.
3.
1993.
4.1990.
5.
2007.6.:
1991.
7.
1982.
8.
.
9.
1988.
10.1996.
11.1987.
12.1993.
13.1991.
14.
1994.
91
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
105/106
35/1:
:
1. Ashraf El-Sharkawy, Economic Feasibility Studies, Faculty of EngineeringCairo University, 2007.
2. Bierman, H.J. Shmidt, Seymour, The Capital Budgeting Decision , 5th
ed.Macmillan Publishing Co. 1975.3. Jem Schell, Small Business Answer Book, Solution to the 101 Most Common
small Business problems, NY: John Willy & Sons, Inc. 1996.4. Little, I.M.D. & Mirrlees, J.A. Project Appraisal and Planning for Developing
Countries, Heinemann educational book Ltd. , London 1974.5. Moore, P.C., Risk in Business decision, Longman group Ltd. London 1972.6. Squire, l. & Van Dertak, Herman, Economic Analysis of projects, john
Hopkins, Baltimore, 1975.
7. UNIDO, Guidelines for Project Evaluation, UN, N.Y., 1972.8. UNIDO, Guide to Practical Project Appraisal, Social Benefit Cost Analysis inDeveloping Countries, United Nations, New York 1978.
92
7/31/2019 C35 a Feasibility
106/106
.
1-. :
2-.3-"
."4-.5-.6-.7-.8-.9-.
10-. 11-.12-. :13-.14-.15-.16-.17-.
-.-.-:
.
-.-.
1- Planning and Controlling.2- Systems and Creative Thinking.3- Research Methods and Writing
Research Proposals.4- Statistical Data Analysis.5- Teams and Work Groups.6- Risk Assessment and Risk
Management.7- Communication Skills.
8- Negotiation Skills.9- Analytical Thinking.10- Problem Solving and Decision
Making.11- Stress Management.12- Accounting for Management and
Decision Making.13- Basics of Managerial Economics.14 Economic Feasibility Studies