CONTENT

Castor Seed 02

Chana 03

Coriander 04

Jeera 05

Mustard Seed 06

Tuesday , 30 June 2015

Castor Seed Overview

Castor seed traded on a positive note on Monday extending gains of the previous week and settled 0.82% higher. Lower arrivals also supported prices. However, good rains have increased hopes of higher sowing, capping any sharp upside movement. Prices made a new high in July contract of Rs. 4294 earlier this month as IMD lowered monsoon forecast to 88% of LPA.

Castor seed traded on a positive note on Monday extending gains of the previous week and settled 0.82% higher. Lower arrivals also supported prices. However, good rains have increased hopes of higher sowing, capping any sharp upside movement.

Prices made a new high in July contract of Rs. 4294 earlier this month as IMD lowered monsoon forecast to 88% of LPA. Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 254,648 nmt out of which 252,876 mt are valid stocks while the remaining 1772 mt are in process.

Outlook

Castor futures are expected to trade on a positive note. Value buying is expected to support prices. Weak monsoon forecast by IMD may also support prices at lower levels. However, good rains

Market Highlights

Spread Matrix

DAILY PRICE ANALYSIS

Tuesday , 30 June 2015

SPREAD ANALYSIS

Technical Chart - Castor seed NCDEX July contract

Technical Levels

Commodity

Castor seed

Contract

July

S2

3975

S1

4025

R1

4100

R2

4135

Location

Bhabar

Deesa

Kadi

Patan

TOTAL

Expiry

JULY

AUG

SEPT

OCT

SPOT

JULY

AUG

SEPT

OCT

PRICE

4,022

4,058

4,151

4,232

4,302

JULY

36

-

-

-

-

AUG

129

93

-

-

-

SEPT

210

174

81

-

-

OCT

280

244

151

70

-

Open

4,021

4,115

4,195

4,266

High

4,070

4,164

4,242

4,307

Low

4,017

4,115

4,191

4,260

Close

4,058

4,151

4,232

4,302

Prev CL

4,025

4,121

4,188

4,250

% Change

0.82

0.73

1.05

w1.22

Valid Stock

1299

25544

134803

91230

252876

In Process

10

625

443

694

1772

Unit

MT

MT

MT

MT

MT

till now may keep prices under pressure as it may lead to good sowing. Sluggish demand may also keep prices under check. Technically, Castor July futures may trade higher. Prices breached the trend line and closed above it. Prices closed above 5 & 21 day EMA indicating further upside. However, MACD and RSI are moving southwards. Prices on the upside may find strong resistance at 50% retracement.

Chana Overview

Chana traded on a positive note on Monday on extended short coverings and settled 0.67% higher. Prices declined over the last few days as Rajasthan government imposed stock limit on pulses. Huge supplies, weak demand from bulk consumers and improved climatic conditions also pressurized prices. Prices are trading at the lowest levels in 2 months. Further, the union cabinet has decided to allow higher import of pulses. Prices gained earlier on the back of lower output and tight supplies. 88% of LPA.

According to a circular released by NCDEX, staggered delivery for July’15 contract onwards shall commence on 1st of the expiry month. Pre-expiry margin of 3% on both sides will be applicable from 11th of the month till the expiry.

Prices in the Delhi remained unchanged at Rs. 4350-4400 while Akola remained flat at Rs. 4350 compared with previous day.

Prices gained sharply over the last few months due to crop damage due to unseasonal rains, which has led to lower output. Tight supplies and good demand ahead of the wedding season also helped push up the prices.

The Ministry of Agriculture released 3rd Advance Estimates for 2014-15, wherein it has estimated chana output at 7.59 mn tonnes compared with 8.28 mn tonnes in the previous estimate.

Market Highlights

Spread Matrix

Tuesday , 30 June 2015

SPREAD ANALYSIS

Technical Chart - Chana NCDEX July contract

Stock Position on NCDEX Warehouses as on 28th June

Technical Levels

Commodity

Chana

Contract

July

S2

4100

S1

4155

R1

4258

R2

4295

LocationBikanerDelhiTOTAL

Expiry

JULY

AUG

SEPT

OCT

SPOT

JULY

AUG

SEPT

OCT

PRICE

4,350

4,205

4,336

4,455

4,561

JULY

(145)

-

-

-

-

AUG

(14)

131

-

-

-

SEPT

105

250

119

-

-

OCT

211

356

225

106

-

Open

4,136

4,318

4,409

4,521

High

4,225

4,354

4,472

4,580

Low

4,136

4,271

4,405

4,521

Close

4,205

4,336

4,455

4,561

Prev CL

4,177

4,315

4,443

4,555

% Change

0.67

0.49

0.27

0.13

Valid Stock12842312053140476

In Process79752849

UnitMTMTMT

Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 141,325 mt out of which 140,476 mt are valid stocks while the remaining 849 mt are in process.

Outlook

Chana futures may trade on mixed note with a negative bias. Huge supplies, stock limits on pulses in Rajasthan and sluggish demand coupled with cabinet’s decision to boost imports may keep prices under downside pressure. Also, government’s offer of NAFED stocks to the states to augment supplies may add to the downside pressure. However, lower output may support prices at lower levels. Bargain hunting may also be seen at these levels.

Technically, Chana may trade sideways. Prices gained over the last few days after taking support at the trend line. Prices found support at 50% retracement. However, Prices may find strong resistance at 10 day EMA. MACD and RSI are moving southwards.

DAILY PRICE ANALYSIS

DhaniyaOverview

Dhaniya futures recovered from lower levels on Monday on short coverings and settled 0.45% higher. Prices have declined from higher levels on long liquidation due to sluggish demand at higher levels. Prices gained sharply over the last few weeks on the back of lower output and tight supplies.

According to a circular released by NCDEX, staggered delivery for July’15 contract onwards shall commence on 1st of the expiry month. NCDEX also imposed 10% Special Cash Margin on the Long side of all running and yet to be launched contract w.e.f. beginning of June 3, 2015. Pre-expiry margin of 3% on both sides will be applicable from 11th of the month till the expiry.

Prices in Kota mandi for Eagle variety remained unchanged at Rs. 10100-10300 per qtl while Badami remained unchanged at Rs. 9500-9700. Prices in Guna (MP) for Badami remained flat at Rs. 9500 while Eagle variety remained unchanged to Rs. 10500.

According to the Spices Board of India, exports of Dhaniya from India between April-December 2014 stood at 34,000 MT, marginally higher compared with 33,882 MT during the corresponding period last year.Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 34,278

Market Highlights

Spread Matrix

DAILY PRICE ANALYSIS

SPREAD ANALYSIS

Technical Chart - Dhaniya NCDEX July contract

Stock Position on NCDEX Warehouses as on 28th June

Technical Levels

Commodity

Dhanya

Contract

July

S2

11700

S1

11835

R1

12060

R2

12250

LocationBaranGondalGunaJaipurKotaRamganjmandi

TOTAL

Expiry

JULY

AUG

SEPT

OCT

SPOT

JULY

AUG

SEPT

OCT

PRICE

11,736

11,960

12,138

12,345

12,521

JULY

224

-

-

-

-

AUG

402

178

-

-

-

SEPT

609

385

207

-

-

OCT

785

561

383

176

-

Open

11,890

12,115

12,330

12,441

High

12,069

12,248

12,412

12,600

Low

11,765

11,961

12,158

12,441

Close

11,960

12,138

12,345

12,521

Prev CL

11,906

12,118

12,345

12,663

% Change

0.45

0.17

-

(1.12)

Valid Stock1302767230407481235833409

In Process0659002100869

UnitMTMTMTMTMTMTMT

mt out of which 33,409 mt are valid stocks while the remaining 869 mt are in process.

Outlook

Dhaniya may trade on a mixed note. Sluggish demand may keep price under check. Lower output and poor supplies may, however, support prices at lower levels.

Technically, Dhaniya may trade mixed. Prices have taken strong support at the trend line and bounced back while resistance has been seen at 38.2% retracement. Prices may move up further once it breached the retracement levels. However prices closed below 10 & 20 day EMA. RSI and MACD are moving southwards,

Tuesday , 30 June 2015

Jeera Overview

Jeera futures traded on a mixed note on Monday. Prices opened lower on profit taking at higher levels. However, prices recovered towards end of the day on good demand at lower levels and spot buying and settled unchanged. Prices declined over the last few days on weak demand and poor quality arrivals.

Prices in Delhi spot market remained unchanged at Rs. 16000/qtl for Ganesh variety. Arrivals were steady at 5,000 qtl. Prices in Jodhpur remained unchanged to Rs. 15500.

Prices gained sharply over the last 5-6 months on lower acreage, lower supplies due to record exports and lower carryover stocks. Unseasonal rains raised fears of crop damage leading to further upside in the prices. Output is expected around 43 lakh bags (of 55 kg each), much lower compared with last year.

According to the Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera from India between April-December 2014 stood at 128,500 MT, 28 percent higher compared with 100,340 MT during the corresponding period last year.

Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 20,361 mt out of which 20,171 mt are valid stocks while the remaining

Market Highlights

Spread Matrix

DAILY PRICE ANALYSIS

SPREAD ANALYSIS

Technical Chart - Jeera NCDEX July contract

Stock Position on NCDEX Warehouses as on 28th June

Technical Levels

Commodity

Jeera

Contract

July

S2

16080

S1

16250

R1

16680

R2

16950

Location

Jodhpur

Unjha

TOTAL

Expiry

JULY

AUG

SEPT

OCT

SPOT

JULY

AUG

SEPT

OCT

PRICE

17,188

16,475

16,720

17,190

17,485

JULY

(713)

-

-

-

-

AUG

(468)

245

-

-

-

SEPT

3

715

470

-

-

OCT

298

1010

765

295

-

Open

16,400

16,640

17,200

17,400

High

16,595

16,840

17,250

17,560

Low

16,325

16,575

16,980

17,400

Close

16,475

16,720

17,190

17,485

Prev CL

16,475

16,705

17,130

17,530

% Change

-

0.09

0.35

(0.26)

Valid Stock

2867

17305

20172

In Process

6

183

189

Unit

MT

MT

MT

189 mt are in process.

Outlook

Jeera may trade on a mixed note. Demand from stockists as well as exporters may lend support to the prices. However, poor quality arrivals may cap the upside and pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technically, Jeera July futures may trade on a positive note. Prices have closed above 5 & 10 day EMA signaling stength in the short term. MACD is trading in the positive and RSI is also moving northwards, showing recovery. Prices filled the gap at Rs. 15600 and have bounced back. Extended short coverings may be seen. However, prices closed below 20 day EMA. Prices may also find storng resistance at the trendline

Tuesday , 30 June 2015

Mustard Seed Overview

Mustard futures traded on a positive note on Monday on good buying due to export demand for the meal and settled 1.97% higher. Prices gained earlier on expectations of pick up in exports after reports China lifted ban on rapemeal imports and lower output.

Mustard seed in Jaipur declined 0.22% to Rs. 4545-4550. Prices in Alwar traded strong and declined 1.14% to Rs. 4300-4350. Non demat condition in Sriganganagar declined 1.22% to Rs. 4000-4050.

Prices have gained sharply over the last few weeks due to lower output expectations due to crop damage and lower yield due to unseasonal rains.

In its 3rd Advance Estimates, the Ministry of Agriculture has estimated Mustard output at 6.75 mn tonnes compared with 8.28 mn tonnes in the previous estimate.

Total stocks on NCDEX accredited warehouses stand at 63,681 mt out of which 63,661 mt are valid stocks while the remaining 20 mt are in process.

Market Highlights

Spread Matrix

DAILY PRICE ANALYSIS

SPREAD ANALYSIS

Technical Chart - Mustard seed NCDEX July contract

Stock Position on NCDEX Warehouses as on 28th June

Technical Levels

Commodity

RM Seed

Contract

July

S2

4160

S1

4195

R1

4270

R2

4302

LocationAlwarBikanerJaipurJodhpurKotaSriganganagar

TOTAL

Expiry

JULY

AUG

SEPT

OCT

SPOT

JULY

AUG

SEPT

OCT

PRICE

4,225

4,234

4,283

4,327

4,369

JULY

9

-

-

-

-

AUG

58

49

-

-

-

SEPT

102

93

44

-

-

OCT

144

135

86

42

-

Open

4,145

4,196

4,253

4,305

High

4,264

4,348

4,349

4,375

Low

4,142

4,190

4,238

4,291

Close

4,234

4,283

4,327

4,369

Prev CL

4,152

4,200

4,256

4,303

% Change

1.97

1.98

1.67

1.53

Valid Stock349549723507544316136354063661

In Process0101000020

UnitMTMTMTMTMTMTMT

Outlook

Mustard seed futures may trade on a mixed note. Lower arrivals coupled with meal demand from China and may support prices. However, sluggish seed demand may keep prices under check. Huge stocks on the NCDEX warehouses may pressurize prices.

Technically, Mustard Seed futures may trade higher. Prices breached the upper end of the channel and closed sharply above it with rising volumes indicating fresh buying. Prices also closed above 5 & 20 day EMA signaling strength. Prices however, found strong resistance at 61.8% retracement levels.

Tuesday , 30 June 2015

Prepared by Anuj Choudhary (Sr. Research Associate)anuj.choudhary@staragri.com+91 – 22- 23684500 (Extn: 512)

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