C olorado: “ A B attleground for P residential P olitics”

Ciruli Associates

Colorado: “A Battleground for Presidential Politics”

Progressive 15Northeast Colorado

September 17, 2008

Floyd CiruliCiruli Associates

2

78% 76%

55%

10%15%

25%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Good for State Bad for State

Democrats Unaffiliated Republicans

Convention – Good for Colorado38 Million Watch

Ciruli Associates 2008

Ciruli Associates, N550 voters, August 6, 2008

Democratic National Convention “Good for Colorado”

• Hickenlooper/Denver are winners• State Democrats exposure• Reinforces state is battleground

Question: Do you believe that holding the Democratic National Convention in Denver the third (fourth) week of August will be good for the State of Colorado or bad for the state?

3

• Friday morning bounce, Gallup 8 points

• Party unity• Economic focus/plan offered• Frame choice: Bush/McCain vs.

Obama/Biden

McCain vs. ObamaBounce Meets Bounce


Democrats Have Good Convention

• Palin effect – 37 million watch

• National security focus• Character, independence,

reform• Now ahead in polls

Republicans Gain Momentum

4 Ciruli Associates 2008

Ciruli Associates from Real Clear Politics, Rasmussen 2008

RCP Average 9/5-9/15 45.3 46.1 McCain +0.8

Gallup Tracking 9/13-9/15 46 47 McCain +1Rasmussen Tracking 9/13-9/15 47 48 McCain +1Fox News 9/8-9/9 42 45 McCain +3Gallup Tracking 9/7-9/9 43 48 McCain +5NBC/WSJ 9/6-9/8 46 45 Obama +1ABC/Washington Post 9/5-9/7 47 49 McCain +2CBS News 9/1-9/3 42 42 TieGallup Tracking 9/1-9/3 49 42 Obama +7Rasmussen Tracking 8/28-8/30 47 43 Obama +4Gallup Tracking 8/27-8/29 49 41 Obama +8CNN 8/23-8/24 47 47 TieUSA Today/Gallup 8/21-8/23 48 45 Obama +3

Obama McCainPoll Date (D) (R) Spread

The Race to the FinishThe Debates

Sept. 26: 1st presidential debate, Oxford, MIOct. 2: Vice presidential debate, St. Louis, MOOct. 7: 2nd presidential debate, Nashville, TNOct. 15: 3rd presidential debate, Hempstead, NYNov. 4: Election Day

5

65%

25%

39%45%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

18-34 Years Old 65 Years Old and Older

Right Direction Wrong Track


• 47% said right direction, 63% in Sept. 2007• African-American – 63% right direction

Younger Voters Upbeat, Older Worried

Age of AnxietyState’s Mood Turns Down

Ciruli Associates, N500, July 2008

Question: Overall, would you say things are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track here in Colorado?

6

Colorado Remains on Battleground List


Colorado: McCain vs. Obama

RCP Average 9/11-9/14 -- 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6

Fox/Rasmussen 9/14-9/14 500 LV 46 48 McCain +3Fox/Rasmussen 9/7-9/7 500 LV 49 46 Obama +3CNN/Time 8/24-8/26 670 RV 46 47 McCain +1Quinnipiac 8/15-8/21 1060 RV 46 47 McCain +1Denver Post 8/13-8/15 400 LV 46 43 Obama +3Rocky Mtn News/CBS4 8/11-8/13 500 RV 41 44 McCain +3

Obama McCainPoll Date Sample (D) (R) Spread

• Obama leads most of June and July• Then lead exchanges in late July and

August• In first September polls race remains

close

“We’re talking presidential gridlock here,” Floyd Ciruli, Rocky Mountain News, 9-13-08

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Colorado Politics Shifts to Blue


Colorado economic downturn shifts agenda to left and away from social issues. Economy changes to high tech and service.

Rapid growth of new voters in suburbs, exurbs and I-70 corridor split tickets, register more independent (1,023 Republicans, 1,021 Unaffiliated, 945 Democrats)

Colorado Republicans divided on fiscal and social issues. Face tough primaries.

Growth of Democratic bench and support infrastructure (money, think tanks, blogs). Candidates position in the middle.

National Republican fortunes decline

• Gary Hart: Manifesto: Democrats and the West, Fall 2006• Fred Barnes: The Colorado Model, Weekly Standard, 7/21/08• Ryan Lizza: The Code of the West, New Yorker, 8/22/08

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The Code of the WestOne Theory of Colorado Electorate


New Yorker, Ryan Lizza, July 10, 2008

• Core conservatives and liberals don’t shift• Government pragmatists pro-choice and want solutions• Moral pragmatists like limits, but minimum conflict

Moral Pragmatist,

14%

Government Pragmatist,

37%

Very Liberal, 20%

Fox News Conservative,

16%

Moral Conservative,

13% Gary Hart

“We are now at the cusp...of the end of the Nixon-Reagan-

Bush era. Obama is poised, if he is bold

enough, to be a transformational

president...”

9

RCP Average 8/5-8/24 -- 45.0 38.0 Udall +7

Suffolk 8/21-8/24 450 LV 39 31 Udall +8Denver Post 8/13-8/15 400 LV 47 37 Udall +10Rocky Mtn News/CBS4 8/11-8/13 500 RV 44 38 Udall +6Rasmussen 8/13-8/13 500 LV 50 42 Udall +8PPP (D) 8/5-8/7 933 LV 47 41 Udall +6Quinnipiac 7/14-7/22 1425 LV 44 44 Tie


Ciruli Associates from Real Clear Politics, Rasmussen 2008

Colorado Senate

Udall SchafferPoll Date Sample (D) (R) Spread

U.S. Senate Race

“The real test for Democrats will be if they pick up a senate seat,” Floyd Ciruli


Public Opinion Shifts on Energy Supply

More exploration/mining/drilling and power plants 35% 47% +12%

vs.More conservation/regulation 55 45 -10%

Develop new energy sources 54 60 +6%vs.

Protect the environment 36 34 -2%

Favor drilling in ANWR 42 50 +8%

Questions Feb. 2008 June 2008 Change

Ciruli Associates reformatted Pew Poll 2008

Pew Poll Shows Americans Shifting Toward Traditional Sources

“High gas prices have changed the political dynamics in Colorado,” Floyd Ciruli, pollster, Wall Street Journal, 7-28-08

“We are a completely committed recreational state and by and large, we recreate with gas. We load up the SUV and go to the mountains,” Floyd Ciruli, pollster, MSNBC Tom Curry, 8-2-08


In Colorado, Offshore DrillingAttracts the Independent Voter

Support 59% 82% 34% 57%Oppose 37 15 60 40Don’t know/NA 4 3 5 4

Total Rep. Dem. Ind.

Quinnipiac, July 24, 2008

Question: To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose drilling for new oil supplies in currently protected areas offshore?

Offshore Drilling in Protected Areas

• On July 24, gas prices become top issue, and Obama and McCain tied (33% each) on who has best program to solve energy crisis now

• Republicans finally find an issue with some traction; McCain up by 2, Senate race tied

“We had begun to think there was a very significant Democratic advantage, but ($4-per-gallon gasoline) shows us how quickly an issue can energize and change the dynamics of a race,” Floyd Ciruli, pollster, Rocky Mountain News, 7-25-08


But Colorado Voters Still Like Renewables

Renewable energy 54%Drilling 21Nuclear power 9High mileage cars 5Strategic Reserve 4Don’t know/NA 7

Question: Which is the best way to help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil – A) building new nuclear power plants, B) drilling offshore and in Alaska, C) developing renewable energy sources like solar power, wind power and biofuels, D) releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or E) mandating higher mileage standards for cars?

Quinnipiac, July 24, 2008

Majority of Public Wants Balanced Approach

• Obama says energy compromise is necessary, Washington Post, 8-3,08• Udall energy plan includes offshore drilling, Rocky Mountain News, 8-14-08• Salazar pushes offshore drilling, Denver Post, 8-22-08

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31%

49%

21%

44%

34%

22%

49%

27%24%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Republican Unaffiliated Democrat

Support Oppose Don't know


• 41% support/37% oppose/22% don’t know

Increase State Severance Tax

Ciruli Associates, N500, July/August 2008

Question: Increase the state severance tax $321 million dollars annually by removing the local property tax exemption. The increased tax funding would go to college scholarships, wildlife programs, alternative energy research, and local transportation and water projects.

Amendment 58

“I think its success will, indeed, give him bragging rights and momentum. If it loses, I think he will be weakened by the loss,” Floyd Ciruli, pollster, Grand Junction Sentinel, 8-2-08

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37% 37%

17%

51%

26% 23%

59%

21% 20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%





School Fund, Suspend TABOR Spending Rules, Eliminate Amendment 23


Question: Create a fund for preschool to 12th grade education from revenue that the State of Colorado would have refunded to taxpayers by permanently suspending the TABOR amendment rules related to limited government spending. Eliminate the requirement that statewide per-pupil funding grow at least the rate of inflation and create a savings account for education.

Amendment 59

15

32%38%

29%

38%

24%

38% 37%

23%

41%

0%

20%

40%

60%





Increase the Number of Signaturesfor Constitutional Amendment


Referendum O

Question: Increase the number of signatures required to place a constitutional measure on the ballot and require signatures on constitutional measure to be gathered from each of the state’s congressional districts. It reduces the number of signatures to place a state statute on the ballot and restricts any changes by the state legislature for five years.

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• Amendment 47: Right to work – Private • Amendment 49: Prohibit paycheck deduction – Public • Amendment 54: Prohibit sole-source contributions – Public

Labor Peace Ends


Business/Government

Will There be any Winners?

• Amendment 53: Criminal liability – Private • Amendment 55: Just cause – Private• Amendment 56: Health insurance – Private• Amendment 57: Safe workplace – Private

Labor


• 92% of voters believe a “dependable supply of water” very important to strong economy.

• Referendum A loses. Carries no county, but started ahead.

• In a telephone interview with the Pueblo Chieftain “...the water compact that Colorado and other upper basin states have with California and a region should be renegotiated,” U.S. Senator John McCain said, 8-15-2008

• Senator Salazar, “...only happen over my dead body.”• “My recent remarks may have been mistakenly

construed...Let me be clear that I do not advocate renegotiations of the compact.” 8-20-08

Water, the Third Rail of Colorado Politics

Divisions among water stakeholders keep Colorado in policy gridlock. Is Colorado vulnerable because it does not claim its Colorado River entitlement?


Record turnout Aggressive and expensive campaigns Independent voters key target National advertising Energy and environment major issue Close election Repeated presidential visits

Impact on Colorado

Colorado, the battleground state

Documents

C olorado: “ A B attleground for P residential P olitics”