Copernicus EU

Copernicus EU www.copernicus.eu

Copernicus EU

C o p e r n i c u s E m e r g e n c y M a n a g e m e n t S e r v i c e f o r e c a s t i n g f l o o d s

Copernicus & Copernicus Services

EmergencyManagement

E F A S – t h e E u r o p e a n F l o o d A w a r e n e s s S y s t e m

Elbe and Danube floods a wake-up call for the EC to provide an operational service to provide support to flood management

2EFAS becomes part of the operational Copernicus EMS

Building a partner network, collaborating with national authorities and scientific communities, collecting meteorological and hydrological data, launching the European Flood Alert System

Collaboration agreement to use ECMWF ensemble prediction

From pre-operational dissemination to EFAS web interface

Daily dissemination of results to the European Civil Protection

2002

2003

2004

2005-2007

2010

2011-2012

EmergencyManagement

A c c e s s t o E F A S

3

How can I access EFAS?EFAS real time forecasts are not publicly available in order to safeguard the one voice principle. Archived EFAS forecasts (older than 1 month) are freely available

How can I become EFAS partner? You should be a national, regional or local authority having a role in flood risk management or legally obliged to provide flood forecasting services. Most partners are national meteorological/hydrological or civil protection services

Currently 54 national/regional authorities are part of the EFAS partners

I am a partner of EFAS and I want to access real time forecast…Once you have signed a condition of access (CoA), you automatically get free of charge, password protected, web access to real time services and products through the EFAS Information System (EFAS-IS), where they can retrieve early warning information

EmergencyManagement

E F A S o p e r a t i o n a l s e t u p

4

EFAS Hydrological data collection centreCollecting historic and real-time discharge and water level data

EFAS Meteorological data collection centreCollecting historic and real-time meteorological data across Europe

EFAS Computational centreRunning the forecasts and post-processing calculations and providing web interface of the EFAS-Information System.

EFAS Dissemination centreAnalysis of EFAS results on a daily basis, dissemination of information to the EFAS partners, user meetings and training

EFAS operations

EmergencyManagement

• To EFAS partners: Early flood warning aims to draw attention to an upcoming event so a country can make proper preparations:

– Equipment

– Put team and responsible officers on standby

– Consult local information regularly (MetService, observations, …)

• At the EU level: provide a congregatedpicture on a larger scale

S u p p o r t t o d e c i s i o n m a k i n g

5

EmergencyManagement

I n f o r m a t i o n f l o w a n d d e c i s i o n m a k i n g

6

• Daily analysis of full information

• If high probability for flooding and EFAS partner exists, officer on duty sends anotification

• Only 1 notification to partner to draw attention to probability of flooding

• Can decide to analyze EFAS-IS daily or wait for EFAS notification

• Notification should trigger further investigation with local system, meteorological office, observations

• Partner free to use EFAS information or not

EFAS Dissemination centre EFAS Partner

…Misses are more harmful than false alarm

EmergencyManagement

E F A S p o r t a l s e r v i c e s

77

Information on current and pastfloods situation: active information on alert areas, flood forecasting, floodprobability and real time hydrographs

Flash flood warnings are generated using the methodology of the Enhanced Runoff Index based on Climatology

Accumulated rainfall and EFAS forecast consisting in:deterministic medium-range forecasts: • global model from DWD (German

Weather office) and ECMWF • ensemble forecast for flood warning

times beyond 48 hours, from ECMWF and Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO)

Maps of the individual forecastsbased on different meteorologicalinputs such as the ensemble for ECMWF and the COSMO consortiumand the deterministic forecast from the German Weather office and the ECMWF

Maps such as the simulated soil moistureor snow water equivalent and associatedanomalies, which are importantbackground information when analysingflood forecast

EmergencyManagement

P r o d u c t s a n d s e r v i c e s : w e a t h e r f o r e c a s t

8

An EFAS forecast consists of

• Deterministic forecasts

– DWD (ICON & ICON-EU) –global model, 7 forecast

days (~ 6.5 km, day 1-3 –~ 13 km, day 4-7)

– ECMWF – global model, 10 forecast days, ~ 9 km

• Ensemble forecasts

– ECMWF VAREPS – global model, 51 members, 10 forecast days, ~18 km

– COSMO-LEPS – Europe, 16 members, 5 forecast days, ~ 7 km

EmergencyManagement

Show the forecasted probability of

precipitation intensity exceeding

different treshold levels

P r o d u c t s a n d s e r v i c e s : f l a s h f l o o d s l a y e r s

9

• Based on forecast accumulated upstream precipitation

for durations up to 24 hours (no hydrological

simulation)

• Accounts for soil moisture status, geomorphology and

land-use through a soil moisture - runoff coefficient

relation

• COSMO-LEPS forecasts

• River network at 1 km resolution

• Fit for catchments with area between 25 km2 and

2000km2

• Probabilistic return period shown for lead time range

12-120 hours

EmergencyManagement

LISFLOOD is the hydrological model used by EFAS

• it is a distributed model developed for trans-national river basins

• parameters physically based when possible

• model optimised for flood forecasting

• Embedded in a dynamic GIS programming language PCRaster

• 693 calibration stations (incl. 34 reservoirs)

• Calibration period: 8 years (if sufficient data available)

• Validation period: 8 years (if sufficient data available)

• Calibration parameters: 9 (for sub-catchments with reservoirs 13)

P r o d u c t s a n d s e r v i c e s : L I S F L O O D

10

EmergencyManagement

F r o m e a r l y w a r n i n g t o e a r l y a c t i o n

11

EFAS flood summary layer – 30.03.2015 EMS Rapid Mapping activation – 31.03.2015

Reporting point high: forecasted probability of

exceeding EFAS high treshold is more than

10%

EmergencyManagement

C o n t a c t

12

To access the EFAS-IS go to

www.efas.eu

Personal login is required to access forecasts, notifications etc.

To contact the EFAS team please email

info@efas.eu