C FORESIGHT IN 21TH CENTURY LOOK THROUGH THE …(WEF, 2014). Changing climate, combined with accelerated growth of the global population inevitably reduces the planet’s agro-climatic

6th International Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) – Future in the Making Brussels, 4-5 June 2018

SESSION STI PRIORITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES

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CHANGING THE ROLE OF FORESIGHT IN 21TH CENTURY: A LOOK THROUGH THE PRISM OF THE RUSSIAN S&T

FORESIGHT 2030

Dr. Aleksandr Chulok,

Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge (ISSEK), National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE), Moscow, Myasnitskaya, 20, [email protected]

Prof. Leonid Gokhberg,

ISSEK, HSE, Moscow, Myasnitskaya, 20, [email protected]

Prof. Alexander Sokolov,

ISSEK, HSE, Moscow, Myasnitskaya, 20, [email protected]

Abstract

Science and technology (S&T), being a key driver of socio-economic development, require smart, well-informed and transparent policies aimed at fostering competitive advantages taking account of emerging markets, breakthrough technologies and alternative business models, consequent dramatic changes in the composition of global value chains. Early warning mechanisms of emerging trends and challenges can contribute to the competitiveness of a nation. Foresight allows to reduce transaction costs for economic agents, whereas its deep integration into decision-making process becomes crucial for successful use of Foresight results.

Foresight studies initiated by the government, being integrated with business’ abilities to monitor and analyse information on emerging global trends, set up a solid infrastructure for a long-term strategic vision and provide a flexible instrument for searching relevant responses to Grand Challenges.

The paper is devoted to describing results of Russian S&T Foresight – a full-fledged study targeted at the identification of the most promising areas of S&T. It involved dozens of organizations performing particular tasks and more than 2,000 experts. Its methodology embraced a set of qualitative and quantitative methods (including Big Data analysis) and combined technology push and market pool approaches. For seven S&T areas (ICT, biotechnologies, medicine and health, new materials and nanotechnologies, rational use of nature, transportation and space systems, energy), the following types of results have been obtained: global trends, national challenges and windows of opportunities; new markets and their segments; innovation products and services; prospective technologies and R&D fields (50 thematic groups and over 1,000 items for all areas); recommendations for S&T and innovation policies.

Russian experience could contribute to understanding of the role Foresight can play in the new environment of increasing technological uncertainty and information transparency, shortening time for decision-making both for business and public governance, transformation of global value chains and business-models, changing role of S&T policy and expectations from economic agents.

Keywords: S&T Foresight, STI Policy, Grand Challenges, Big Data Analytics, Scenario planning, Priority setting

mailto:[email protected]





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Introduction

Over the past decade, both developed and emerging economies have faced a number of challenges that can hardly be responded with traditional policy instruments. It fully refers to science and technology as one of key drivers of socio-economic development. Emergence of new markets and alternative business models, dramatic changes in the composition of global value chains, directly connected with fast technological development increase uncertainties and create new risks to be managed (HSE, 2017). STI policy in this new environment has to be flexible, smartly focused and future-oriented (Meissner et al., 2013).

Depending on the economic system, countries are creating their own early warning mechanisms to foresee emerging trends and challenges, which can significantly affect their competitiveness. The role of Foresight as an instrument for reduction of transaction costs for economic agents, has been increasing, but it can become useful only when it is deeply integrated into the decision making process.

In countries with a dominant public sector, such systems are usually initiated by the government; in countries where the private sector plays a major role, they are more often promoted by large corporations, aiming at monitoring and analyzing information regarding emerging global trends. A combination of these two approaches sets up a fully-fledged infrastructure for a long-term strategic vision and provides a flexible instrument for searching relevant responses to Grand Challenges.

Russian experience, which takes its roots from the Soviet period school of S&T governance and already accounts for dozens of Foresight studies at different levels, could contribute to better understanding of the role Foresight can play in the new environment of increasing technological uncertainty and information transparency, shrinking time for decision-making both for business and public governance, changing role of S&T policy and expectations from economic agents.

This paper aims at highlighting key hints of Russian S&T Foresight 2030, which was the latest national S&T Foresight study targeted at the identification of the most promising areas of S&T. It took 2 years and involved dozens of organizations performing particular tasks under the overall coordination by the NRU HSE and more than 2,000 experts. Its results were intensively discussed with key national and industrial stakeholders including key government agencies, large companies in different economic sectors, research institutes and universities.

Methodological approach

The complexity and scale of the study’s objectives (many of which have never been set in Russia before, not even on conceptual level), diversity of the required information,1 and participation of high-level experts dictated the need to apply advanced analytical Foresight techniques. A broad range of quantitative and expert-based methods was used (which have proved their value in the course of numerous international studies), along with the tools for processing and analysing big data, which allowed to interpret various data sources (figure 1). In particular, intellectual Foresight

1 More than 700 data sources were used in the course of the study, including Russian and international analytical studies and foresight, such as documents published by international organisations, companies, research centres, professional associations; strategic documents reflecting development prospects for the Russian economy and its specific sectors; international and Russian statistical and scientometric databases; and information stored in public information systems.



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Analytics system (iFORA®) was used2, for semantic analysis of big data (i.e. text mining). Accordingly, it became possible to significantly extend the range of methodological approaches.

Figure 1. Methodology of the study

Source: authors analysis

The study included four key steps:

Step 1: Establishing the external (global trends) and internal (current state) S&T development frameworks.

Step 2: Building national-level S&T development scenarios, taking into account threats and windows of opportunity engendered by the global trends potentially allowing to make use of national competitive advantages.

Step 3: Preparing S&T development foresights for the key sectors of the Russian economy and S&T areas.

Step 4: Identifying ways to, and areas for improving the national S&T policy, among other things to support accelerated development of the Russian economy in the scope of the new economic paradigm.

2 The system has been developed at the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, Higher School of Economics. It comprises heterogeneous data from more than 22 million documents, and is regularly complemented with new data sources in real time mode.



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Results, discussion and implications

Global trends

Successful accomplishment of the Russia’s strategic development goals depends on the country’s S&T potential, the efficiency of it’s application, and on a number of external conditions created by global trends – major long-term economic, social, technological, and natural shifts resulting in radical changes in people’s lifestyles and activities, economic and social arrangements. Closely interconnected global trends capable of both strengthening and mitigating each other’s effects, define the wide variety of external conditions for, and tendencies of S&T development, create global challenges for the Russian society, economy, and government – which in turn can open windows of opportunity, or create threats for the S&T sphere.

More than 150 trends were identified in the course of the study altogether, most significantly affecting the S&T sphere (figure 2); they can be divided into the following 5 major groups:

1: Changes in the environment

Climate change and increased anthropogenic pressure on the environment leading to reduced biodiversity and degradation of ecosystems (U.S. Global Change Research Programme, 2017). This trend is further aggravated by depletion of natural resources (minerals, water, land, forests, etc.), and increased competition for them – which promote development of a circular economy (WEF, 2014). Changing climate, combined with accelerated growth of the global population inevitably reduces the planet’s agro-climatic potential (FAO, 2016), which translates into problems with development of agriculture and providing adequate supply of food (FAO, 2017). Demand for hydrocarbons is expected to remain in place during the foresight period (along with price volatility), which requires to further increase resource- and energy-efficiency of the economy (BP, 2017; IEA, 2017), step up application of renewable energy sources (APEC, 2016), introduce stricter environmental standards, and apply new waste management and recycling technologies (Deloitte, 2014).

2: Demographic and social transformations

Growth of the global population, and its concentration in cities will lead to increased pressure on ecosystems and infrastructure – which can be offset by application of smart technologies in urban environments. Increased life expectancy in developed countries creates demand for technologies promoting active lifestyle and increased employment of elderly individua ls (“silver economy”), as well as for high-tech and personalised healthcare and medical products and services (KPMG, 2016). The consequences of the demographic shift, increased migration, and deeper social inequality include the risk of new epidemics and return of long-gone infections – which again stresses the need to provide high-quality and accessible medical services. Changing human values, lifestyles, and digitalisation of the society lead to transformation of consumption models, proliferation of green economy, and emergence of shared economy (WEF, 2015; European Union, 2017).



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Figure 2. Global S&T development trends (based on big data analysis)

Source: iFORA® analytics.



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3: Moving on towards a new economic growth model

Due to globalisation of economic links and proliferation of new technologies, global value chains are concentrating around knowledge creation hubs; smart specialisation of countries and regions is becoming increasingly important, in line with the S&T groundwork results they have access to. New market models will be based on horizontal (platform) structures, flexible production links, and increased role of knowledge-intensive products and services (WEF, 2015; WEF, 2017). Stronger global competitiveness, accelerated S&T development, and shorter product life cycles all lead to transformation of models, and compression of the innovation cycle associated with development, creation and dissemination of new technologies, products and services, and enlarged innovation activity in all sectors of the economy. The potential to develop new products, upgrade manufacturing, apply organisational innovations becomes a crucial factor ensuring sufficient flexibility of production systems, their ability to match demand, successfully integrate into value chains, and achieve long-term competitiveness, for individual companies and national economies alike (OECD, 2017). The structure of the labour market is changing due to increased application of robotics to manufacture products and provide services, replacement of routine operations by artificial intelligence, quickly changing requirements to workers’ skills and competences (OECD 2016), increased remote employment and labour mobility.

4: Transformation of the geopolitical situation and global administration systems

A major feature of the current stage of international development is emergence of multipolarity, increased regional instability, harsher struggle for spheres of influence, increasingly different interpretation of international legal norms by countries, and emergence of new standards and rules (European Parliament, 2017). As a result, requirements to effectiveness of relevant tools and institutions are becoming more demanding too; new international and regional blocs and alliances are emerging, while the roles of countries are changing – along with their political agendas, which need to address the global challenges. New political and economic alliances will be emerging around the new centres of power; new economic and trade instruments will be employed to succeed in the geopolitical struggle, including more severe restrictions on movement of people, flow of technologies, knowledge, capital, products and services. Growing threats to environmental, energy and food security (OECD, FAO, 2017), cybersecurity, along with military conflicts and terrorist acts can lead to increased interference of governments into economy and people’s private lives.

5: Emergence of a new S&T development paradigm

Emergence of a new S&T development paradigm is due to the increasingly obvious focus of technological change on enhancing people’s cognitive and physical abilities, which among other things can be explained by the advent of the new industrial revolution (HSE, 2017; WEF, 2017) – creation, convergence, and ubiquitous proliferation into all areas of life of ICT, artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, large-scale application of radically new materials, next-generation electronics, new energy sources, and new ways to store and transfer energy. Digitalisation of research and scientific experimentation is turning into an important factor of the new paradigm, along with emergence of new R&D techniques and methods (such as modelling, big data analysis, use of robotics to conduct scientific experiments, network-based analytics and information sharing tools, etc.). R&D are becoming increasingly multidisciplinary, and the relevant infrastructure –



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more capital-intensive (Gokhberg, 2016). More and more often research and development results affect socio-cultural, ethical, and legal domains. In the paradigm of “responsible research and development” social orientation is becoming the basis of new approaches to management.

S&T development scenarios

Taking into account the external conditions, and the internal (macroeconomic, structural, and institutional) factors affecting the country’s development, scenario conditions for S&T development were formulated (deemed to be necessary to make progress in the promising S&T areas), along with relevant targets. Two S&T development scenarios were built for the Russian Federation: “Technological adaptation” and “Technological leap” (figure 3).

The “Technological adaptation” scenario is a basic one; it implies the country keeps moving on along the current development path: maintaining large-scale technology imports, and fragmentary development of the R&D sector (integrated into the global research sphere but playing a secondary role in it). This scenario does not provide for full accomplishment of Russia’s S&T development objectives, or implementation of its S&T priorities set in the Strategy for the next 10-15 years. No major groundwork results are expected to be achieved in particularly promising research areas (which will become increasingly relevant in the long term). By the end of the foresight period, the risks of the national economy becoming less technologically independent (and less competitive) are likely to grow.

Figure 3. S&T development scenarios for Russia




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The “Technological leap” scenario will allow to achieve leadership in certain S&T development areas, and put in place an integrated national innovation system. It implies developing efficient mechanisms for building up, and making the fullest possible use of the knowledge capital. S&T development in line with this scenario would not be possible without a radical restructuring of the economy, achieving sustainable development, and becoming a member of the group of countries with high economic growth rates.

Neither of these scenarios is likely to be implemented “in its pure form”. At various stages of the foresight period conditions corresponding to one or the other option will prevail. The "Technological leap" scenario is the target one, but the transition to it will occur in stages. The longer the "preparatory phase" lasts, the higher will be the costs of moving on to the target path.

Sector-specific S&T development foresight studies

For each sector’ a smaller-scale foresight study, performed within a nation-scale exercise, included a description of its current state, of the identified challenges, risks, threats, and windows of opportunity, prospective markets, product and service groups likely to appear during the foresight period, the expected volume, and growth rates of these markets and product groups.

Such studies covered 14 key sectors of the Russian economy (fig. 4):

Agriculture

Production and processing of energy resources

Metallurgy

Forest sector

Light industry

Chemical sector

Engineering sector

Information industry

Transport

Space

Electricity generation and communal services

Construction

Finance

Health and pharmaceutics.



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Figure 4. Prospective markets: 2030

Source: HSE, 2018



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Prospective S&T development areas

Two major groups of S&T development areas were considered in the foresight study: platform areas with a broad range of possible applications and capable of having a multiplicative effect on economic development, and goal-oriented ones contributing to implementing the national S&T development priorities.

Key development areas in these groups are presented below.

Platform development areas

Information and communication systems: high-performance computational architectures and systems; technologies and communication infrastructures for high-speed data transfer; smart data analysis technologies; human-machine interfaces; neurocognitive technologies; information security technologies.

Digital production and new materials: intelligent control systems and smart infrastructures; machine-to-machine interaction and "internet of things"; new component base, electronic devices, quantum technologies; mechatronics and robotics; computer simulation of materials and processes; structural, functional and metamaterials; additive and hybrid technologies; diagnostics of materials.

Biotechnology: genomic and post-genomic technologies; cellular technologies; synthetic biology; neurotechnology; industrial biotechnologies and biomaterials; biosecurity technologies.

Space systems: technologies for building and operating spacecraft and relevant systems; technologies for building prospective launch systems; technologies for building prospective spacecraft propulsion systems; orbital maintenance technologies; terrestrial and space-based infrastructure to support space operations.

Goal-oriented areas

Health: promising drug candidates; molecular profiling and diagnostics; cellular technologies and tissue engineering; monitoring and control of organs’ and systems’ functions; medical information technologies; medical robotics.

Food: plant-growing technologies; animal farming technologies; fisheries technologies; food industry technologies; agricultural technologies with a wide range of applications in the agricultural sector and related industries.

Natural resources and the environment: maintaining a favourable environment, ensuring environmental safety; monitoring the state of the environment, assessing and predicting natural and anthropogenic emergencies and disasters; studying the earth’s interior, exploration, prospecting and integrated development of mineral and hydrocarbon resources and anthropogenic raw materials; exploration and development of marine, Arctic and Antarctic resources.



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New energy: efficient, environmentally friendly, clean thermal power generation technologies; efficient and safe nuclear energy technologies; efficient use of renewable energy sources; hydrogen energy; efficient storage of electrical and thermal energy; deep processing of carbon-containing raw materials; efficient transportation of fuel and energy; smart energy systems of the future; efficient energy consumption; modelling of advanced energy technologies and systems.

Transport systems: technologies for building energy-efficient, environmentally friendly vehicles; smart vehicle and traffic control technologies; safety technologies for the transport sector; technologies for high-speed transportation of passengers and cargo.

Implementation of results

The results of the S&T Foresight 2030 are gradually integrated by the key stakeholders: almost all major government agencies have been using them for creation and update of their policy agenda documents; corporations (state-owned firstly and private later) use information about global trends and markets for updating their innovation strategies; research and educational organizations synchronize their development priorities with prospective S&T development areas, revealed in research. Noticeable step in dissemination of foresight results was a federal law on strategic planning (Sokolov, Chulok, 2016). It introduced a three level foresight system in Russia at national, industrial and regional levels, whereas S&T Foresight is considered among few other key national documents of strategic planning, and has to be used as a background while developing such documents as industrial or regional strategies, research or innovation programmes.

Among future implementation of S&T Foresight 2030 results there are following:

supporting selection of areas for integrated S&T programmes and projects to promote full-cycle innovation-based development

supporting the Socio-Economic Development Forecast, the Budget Forecast, the Strategic Forecast and the Socio-Economic Development Strategy of the Russian Federation

supporting development of roadmaps for prospective markets and technologies, industry-specific strategies and foresight studies

providing data and information for priority setting, and designing development strategies for R&D institutes and universities

supporting priority setting for international S&T cooperation.

Lessons of Russian S&T Foresight

We believe that the lessons and experience obtained during this research are representative of the whole field of foresight and forecast initiatives in modern Russian history. It could be distinguished several groups of lessons (fig.5).

Institutional drawbacks

Gaps in the National Innovation System and overall low level of innovation activity and culture in business cause serious obstacles to implement Foresight results. This can be explained by historically stipulated gaps between science and business and, as a result, in the low supply of and demand for innovation (Sokolov, Chulok 2012). Mutual complaints are voiced to that effect. About 5-7 years ago business showed little interest in projects oriented toward long-term



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outcomes, lacks receptivity to innovations and displays low levels of global competition (Chulok, 2012). The key actors (government and business) responsible for shaping the future were not fully up to the task.

They have lost the “habit” of planning for a time span of more than 2-3 years. Nowadays the situation slightly changes towards longer-term future-oriented activities and this is a result of the two driving forces: a huge raise in state-driven foresight projects (mostly according to the above-mentioned law on strategic planning) and better corporate understanding of foresight benefits due to increase in competitive pressure at global and local markets.

The fully-fledged system of foresight activities at the national, industrial and regional levels was set by the Government in 2012 but its real full-scale functioning is still to be reached. Lack of “institutional memory” restrains the pace. Almost each new foresight manager from the same government agency or corporation wants to set up the new tasks for research, while previous results are often underestimated.

Another serious obstacle to the development of foresight in Russia is the lack of actually working, sustainable, systematic communication platforms for discussing different foresight results. Only in the past 5 years, such platforms have been launched on the basis of leading universities, technology alliance, and large research centres.

Figure 5. Russian S&T Foresight: key challenges to respond




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Human factor

Participation of key stakeholders and experts involved in shaping the future is one of the key success factors in foresight. In 2000s, when first large scale foresight studies were launched in Russia, a lack of foresight culture has resulted in an “a priori”, indiscriminately negative perception of foresight initiatives. Nowadays the term “foresight” is quite popular but this issue imposes additional restrictions for basic requirements for particular research. First, it reveals in criteria for choosing participants in foresight. One of the repercussions of the Soviet heritage is a lack of experts capable of acting as so-called “integrators”: experts able to devise strategies based on combining market pull with technology push. As a result, a nurture of a new generation of experts is needed, typically to be recruited from representatives from the “technology” side, with the skills required adopting a more comprehensive perspective of the sector as a whole.

Apart from qualification, a lack of expert commitment poses another problem: experts show low interest in collaborative work and are more intent on lobbying and pushing their own individual interests. In some cases there is a negative correlation between willingness to participate in foresight exercise and level of expertise: it was very difficult to convince those who were really significant to take part in the project.

An insufficient commitment to the foresight processes by key stakeholders reveals in demand of federal and regional authorities: they usually want to see “ready-to-use” results instead of participating in the process from the beginning.

Economy readiness

Development of a common “cure” for deficiencies in foresight culture in Russia is complicated by the fact that Russian sectors of economy are of a multi-structural nature, technologically and institutionally: some basic technologies are 70-100 years old, and modernization processes have not yet been completed in some crucial industries (Chulok, 2009; Gokhberg, Kuznetsova, 2011). As a result, a low level of innovation receptivity among Russian companies is observed. Taking this into account, government policy should switch from “one-size-fits-all” instruments towards an innovation policy tailored to the specific situation in each sector or sub-sector.

Conclusions

Meeting the global challenges requires a radical transformation of national economies, including technological modernisation and profound structural and institutional reorganisation. Integrating into these processes is of particular strategic importance for most catching-up economies including Russia, whereas it becomes even more difficult due to the uneven technological development of various sectors of economy, different rates of their transformation, and low level of innovation culture of the key players – for whom innovation never was the main source of competitiveness, or a strategic priority.

Dealing with these issues has long become a routine management issue for many of the global leaders (see fig. 6).



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Figure 6. S&T Policy: new agenda challenges


In Russia though, they are still being postponed, while relevant approaches and tools are still frequently seen as modernistic and debatable. Professional communities and public authorities alike have not yet reached shared views on how to respond key questions related to the country’s S&T development, such as:

Which key global challenges the world’s economy faces, and what do they mean for Russia? What threats they create, and what opportunities offer?

How the key sectors of the global economy are going to look like in the future? What prospects Russia has in terms of technological and production specialisation, in a situation of digitalisation and the new industrial revolution?

What is going to happen to traditional markets, and what are the prospects for new, emerging ones?

Which technologies can become drivers for the Russian economy?

What requirements to human resources and their skills the transformation of the economy’s technological structure creates?

What is the role of S&T in preparing the ground for a technological leap?

How the R&D sphere, its organisation and various mechanisms should be changed?

How relevant the existing open science, and open inclusive innovation models are to Russia?

These questions are important not only for emerging but also for developed countries, which are trying to set their “place under the sun” of new technological revolution.



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Documents

C FORESIGHT IN 21TH CENTURY LOOK THROUGH THE …(WEF, 2014). Changing climate, combined with accelerated growth of the global population inevitably reduces the planet’s agro-climatic