C a r b o nFor more information contact:

Friends for Conservation and DevelopmentSan José Succotz, Cayo District

Tel: 823-2657Email: fcd@fcdbelize.org

website: www.fcdbelize.org

The Chiquibul Forest

A Carbon Conservation Area

Proposal to: The Forest Department of the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment and the Institute of Archaeology for

consideration of the Chiquibul Forest as a pilot Carbon Conservation Area

From: Friends for Conservation and Development

Prepared by: Percival P. Cho (BSc, MSc)Tropical Forest Management Services

Financed by: CATIE-MAPCo-Financed by: TNC

June, 2011

Executive Summary

The Chiquibul forest is storage for an immense amount of carbon. It is also an important area which provides clean water for both Belize and Guatemala. Mineral potential exists in the Chiquibul as well as large stocks of Mahogany and other valuable timber. Tourism potential is great due to the myriad number of caves and the Caracol ruins. Yet this economically and ecologically valuable forest is threatened and for the most part the threats continue to increase despite efforts from regulatory agencies, the military, and the co-management organization. The �inancial capital required to develop access infrastructure and management interventions required to halt deforestation and degradation, occurring at the hands of Guatemalans, is at the moment out of reach of the government and most local funding agencies. Human capital is also lacking due to funding constraints.

There is opportunity to engage in carbon conservation which can provide a means to generate the necessary funding to halt deforestation and ensure proper management of the Chiquibul forest’s wealth of resources. The Chiquibul forest contains comparably high stocks of carbon and is a regional reservoir for carbon and biodiversity. Valuation of the carbon storage and sequestration service provided by this forest should occur as part of the development of a REDD project. Strategies need to be developed to arrive at carbon credit sales which can generate in excess of $1 million BZD per annum for protection and management of this regionally and internationally important forest.

The Chiquibul ForestA Carbon Conservation Area

The Chiquibul ForestA Carbon Conservation Area

regions of the Chiquibul where conservation posts are positioned. Without real-time reporting the ef�icacy of conservation posts is limited. The political directorate both national and international, the media, and the general public ought to be aware on a real-time basis of instances of illegal deforestation so that necessary actions are taken. To enable real-time reporting from conservation posts it is necessary to have available satellite internet and radio communications to enable video uploads from patrols and over �lights and to communicate with international monitoring bodies such as the OAS.

In addition to avoided deforestation, the REDD framework has been widened to include enhancement of carbon stocks as opposed to strictly conserving carbon stocks. These types of projects fall under the REDD+/++ umbrella. Logging is currently taking place but there is room for improvements which can help to enhance carbon stocks and prevent undue release of carbon dioxide through avoidable tree mortality caused by poor logging practices or wastage due to poor milling practices. Such a project type is included under the VCS methodology but few if any successful methodologies have been proposed. The opportunity exists to explore this option more closely for the Chiquibul Forest Reserve.

In summary, UN-REDD is lacking in widespread implementation and Belize is not currently prepared to partake in the development of an R-PIN. Private sector REDD initiatives hold more promise but the awarding of carbon rights in national forests would �irst have to considered under a formal REDD policy. Unfortunately, such a policy is not being anticipated by private sector entities already engaging in project development under the VCS methodology. The lack of a national policy to address the award of carbon rights will not delay and should not delay REDD project development. A policy precedence already exists for the award of carbon rights, as well as timber rights and mineral rights, excepting that in the instance of carbon no speci�ic legal framework exists. As the existence of a precedence suggests, the lack of speci�ic legislation related to carbon does not preclude the development of agreements which award carbon rights over national forests to private sector entities. This should and will have to be explored in an urgent manner for REDD to bene�it the Chiquibul forest in a timely fashion.

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Introduction

In the early 1980’s the western border with Guatemala was truly a frontier, clearly de�ined by the linear contrast between cleared land on the Guatemalan side and high tropical forest on the Belizean side. Today the border, or adjacency zone as it is now called, is a different place with a curvi-linear pattern between the cleared land and the forest extending along most of the western border. Belize has lost forest and Guatemala has gained cropland. The border between cleared land and forest has moved into Belizean territory. This is alarming for many reasons but key to this paper is the fact that, as a nation, we had declared the very forest now being cleared by the Guatemalans as protected and important to our national heritage. For many years the collective effort between government agencies, the military, and local NGOs has struggled to halt or even reduce cross border illegal incursions occurring in the form of squatting, poaching, xate harvesting, logging, destruction of property, and armed robbery. An opportunity now exists to tap into a previously non-existent funding stream in order to provide the much needed �inances to fund security, conservation, management, and community outreach, all necessary activities to put a halt to the destruction of the Chiquibul forest.

The objective of this paper is to introduce the Chiquibul forest as a carbon conservation area, discuss the potential for carbon storage and sequestration in the Chiquibul, and explore strategy options to achieve certi�ication of carbon credits for the Chiquibul forest.

Background

The Chiquibul forest covers an extent of 177,000 hectares (437,187 acres) and includes the Chiquibul National Park, Chiquibul Forest Reserve and Caracol Archaeological Reserve, herein collectively referred to as the Chiquibul forest. This vast region of tropical forest located in the Maya Mountains accounts for some 7.7% of the total mainland area of Belize. Petroleum potential of the Chiquibul forest area is considered low due to the geology of the Maya Mountains but the area contains deposits of several valuable minerals such as gold and lead. Timber stocks of Mahogany are comparable to anywhere else in Belize and the tourism value of the Chiquibul forest is extremely high due to maya ruins and enormous caves. One resource which has not gone unnoticed in recent times is the hydrological potential of the area. The Chiquibul watershed helps to feed the Chalillo dam and at the same time provides a year long source of potable water for the Peten region of Guatemala and for Belizeans living downstream as the river meanders back across the border. The Chiquibul forest has garnered regional and international attention as a hotspot for biodiversity conservation. It is part of the largest remaining block of tropical forest north of the Amazon, known as the Selva Maya. The Chiquibul forest has gained renewed local and international attention as a potential candidate for a United Nations World Heritage site due to its natural and cultural signi�icance to Belize and the world. However, due to human and �inancial constraints the area has not been receiving the management attention at the level expected for such an important area, and it is now a highly threatened landscape.

The main divide of the Maya Mountains separates the Chiquibul forest from the southern and eastern Maya Mountains and the Macal River provides a natural boundary to the north. The result is that the Chiquibul forest is nestled within a unique geographical location which caters to the development of unique �lora and fauna assemblages which are among the most biodiverse yet threatened ecosystems on earth. This threat comes mainly from the western boundary of the Chiquibul forest which it shares with the republic of Guatemala. Threats to the Chiquibul forest are ever present and increasingly severe. Illegal xate cutters

Private sector REDD through third party certi�ication is quicker and more ef�icient. Criteria to govern REDD project development and administration already exists in the form of standards developed by international bodies such as VCS. Local laws governing REDD projects are not necessarily required but would be favorable. Typically this route is taken for private lands but all that is required for national lands would be proof of uncontested legal right to claim the carbon credits within a forest. This right can be vested by the government in a quasi-governmental body or a private sector �irm. These options would have to be explored more closely as given the current legal context, or absence thereof, legislation to govern ownership rights over carbon would �irst have to be written if a proper precedence for due diligence is to be set. In the past, proponents have sought rights to claim carbon credits in national forests under packaged agreements for reforestation. A precedence has already been set for such contractual agreements, reference the Mountain Pine Ridge Forest Company, although ultimately the government did not agree to award carbon rights under the circumstances. Packaging carbon rights with management responsibilities under a not-for-pro�it arrangement may be a viable option given the precedence set.

If private sector REDD is the option chosen for development of a Chiquibul REDD project, then the VCS methodology would have to be consulted for the type of project which quali�ies. The type of project determines the requisite steps which need to be taken or criteria which need to be met. Local expertise exists nationally to carry out project development under VCS as the standards are freely available online for study and use. However, marketing expertise in carbon trading is not currently within the national capacity and this component of project development would have to be outsourced to a reputable �irm experienced in working in Belize.

Finally, the biggest challenge to a successful REDD project for the Chiquibul forest will be to actually halt or reduce the deforestation currently occurring at the hands of illegal Guatemalan nationals. Monies from the sale of carbon credits will have to be re-invested in increasing monitoring, surveillance and border security and patrols through a well-equipped counter-deforestation joint force comprising the military, law enforcement agencies, and the co-management partner. Note that rather than pursuing the controversial borderline (sovereign integrity) role, the unit will be tasked with halting deforestation within the Chiquibul forest which has to be considered as separate and aside from any deliberations currently occurring regarding the Belize-Guatemala border. The Chiquibul Forest Joint Enforcement Unit plays this role presently though it is severely constrained to provide a credible deterrence. The unit is comprised of FCD, BDF and Police personnel presently. Administration of the re-investment of funds from the sale of carbon credits into actually halting deforestation will have to the done by a credible entity. Performance monitoring will be key to the successful implementation of counter-deforestation activities, as the inability to halt deforestation would mean reduced project value and eventual project failure. As private sector REDD is market driven project failure ultimately weakens the carbon market which results in lowered carbon prices.

How deforestation will actually be halted is beyond the scope of this document. However, success will depend on rigid patrols along the western boarder, placement of additional well-manned and equipped conservation posts, increased presence of national and international regulatory and monitoring agencies, cross-border collaborations, alternative livelihood opportunities in neighboring Peten, and a national and international public awareness campaign against deforestation in the Chiquibul. Of particular importance will be the ability to engage in real-time monitoring and reporting of incursions and subsequent actions to halt illegal deforestation. Communications will be the key to enable real-time monitoring from the remote

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have plundered the Chiquibul forest of nearly all its xate stocks, taking with it scores of parrots for the illegal pet trade and game meat for consumption. Illegal loggers have plundered nearly all the Mahogany and cedar along the border zone and have pushed even further into the Columbia Forest Reserve using well established cross-border logging roads that run for several kilometers into Belizean territory. Lastly, illegal squatters have cleared thousands of hectares (4,681 ha by 2009) and are pushing deeper into the Chiquibul forest. The problem is compounded by severely underequipped and undermanned security forces, regulatory agencies and co-management institutions operating in the area.

The annual budget of the Forest Department, the government agency tasked with responsibility for the Chiquibul Forest Reserve and National Park, is less than two million dollars and shrinking annually. Most of this is committed to personal emoluments and fuel allocations to be spent across the nation. No single protected area has its own budget line, creating a haphazard approach to protected areas management and very little in the way of tangible positive outcomes on the ground. The Belize Defence Force is likewise stretched thin on an annual basis, creating gaps in security presence along the border with Guatemala. The Institute of Archaeology, responsible for the Caracol Archaeological Reserve, also faces several constraints that limit their ability to protect the boundaries of the reserve. Friends for Conservation and Development, the only NGO taking on the challenge of conservation within the Chiquibul forest also suffers from a lack of secure long-term �inancial commitments and a shortage of human resources. The end result is that very little concerted, strategic, and effective actions take place within the Chiquibul forest to secure the ecological and sovereign integrity of the area on a long-term basis. Without this security, the area is committed to deforestation and forest degradation. In addition, industrial development in the Chiquibul forest is at risk as gold mines and timber operations are continuously raided and threatened by illegal Guatemalans roaming the forest. Expensive machinery have been destroyed, trees cut down, tourists assaulted, and research equipment damaged, all with the effect of hampering development in the Chiquibul forest. Without developing the full economic potential of the Chiquibul forest, the area will put a strain on rather than provide the signi�icant contribution to the national gross domestic product that it should. Security of the Chiquibul forest is the key to ensuring that sustainable development and conservation are realized. Biodiversity conservation and security comes at a considerable cost and �inance is where the de�iciency rests at the moment. One resource which the Chiquibul is rich in, but is not currently in the mainstream of economic development in Belize, is carbon. Payment for ecosystem services, namely carbon storage and sequestration, can provide the source of funding to ensure long-term security and maintenance of the Chiquibul forest.

Carbon Conservation

Similar to the conservation of wildlife or biodiversity, carbon conservation involves wise use of the carbon resource of a forest in order to ensure a zero or net positive change in carbon stock. It requires a change in the epistemological foundation of forest conservation. Typically we conserve a forest for its trees, wildlife or biodiversity, but fundamentally what we are really doing when we conserve the forest is we are conserving the carbon stock contained within the trees, logs, and soil. The carbon component of forest conservation was not previously important until the worldwide focus on global warming and climate change. Thus, previously we saw the forest for the trees (timber) and wildlife. Now, when we conserve a tropical forest we see it as carbon conservation, we conserve the carbon stored in the wood of trees, in the logs, and in the soil. In other words we prevent this carbon from being released into the atmosphere through burning or decomposition that occurs when we convert forest to other land use.

In addition to claiming the value of the avoided deforestation, the growth of trees can be claimed as increase in carbon stocks. Recent research in the Chiquibul forest suggests that for the most part the forest is increasing in carbon at around 9 metric tons per hectare per year. This increase is known as carbon sequestration and adds value to the overall project, which is then translated into higher credit prices.

Strategy options for a Chiquibul REDD project

Recently a joint scienti�ic research project partially funded by CATIE, a local researcher currently reading for a PhD at Lancaster University in the UK, and the Forest Department, implemented by Friends for Conservation and Development, resulted in the �irst defensible estimates of carbon stocks in the Chiquibul forest which forms the basis for this paper. In addition to carrying out the requisite �ield measurements in the Chiquibul forest, the research project sought to gain stakeholder input into options for developing a REDD project for the Chiquibul. The overall objective of such a REDD project would be to once and for all halt the illegal deforestation and destruction occurring in the Chiquibul forest. A workshop was thus held to obtain input from stakeholders as to the various options and steps required to achieve the �irst successful sale of carbon credits from the Chiquibul forest.

The �irst output from the stakeholder workshop held in June 2011 was in regards to the recommendation for the establishment of a Chiquibul REDD Committee charged with deliberating the best options for and executing the necessary steps to develop a REDD project for the Chiquibul forest. This Committee would require government sanction and representation. Of interest to this paper are the deliberations which would occur at the Committee level. This section thus seeks to inform such future deliberations by pointing out the series of decisions which would be necessary and highlighting available options.

Firstly, there is the need to establish without further deliberations a sound realization among members of the Committee that the Chiquibul forest holds great potential for a REDD project. If this realization exists then it is not necessary to �irst conduct a viability analysis, and the logical next step will be to expand the �ield assessment to capture additional variability in carbon stocks across the Chiquibul landscape. The �irst estimates of carbon stocks presented in this paper are based on the re-measurements of 4 permanent sample plots �irst established in the 1990s by the Forest Department with British aid. There are an additional 10 permanent plots which require re-measurements and which can help to increase the reliability of the estimates thus far derived.

Secondly, there is the need to decide on which route to pursue for the administration of the REDD project, either UN-REDD or private sector certi�ication by VCS via a third party. The choice of route will determine the next steps to take in project development. UN-REDD is currently still under debate and no formal agreement yet exists to govern carbon projects under this category. Additionally, to partake in UN-REDD as a pilot country, Belize would have to �irst develop a Project Information Note or R-PIN and have it approved by the UN-REDD committee. Financing would then have to be secured for the carbon credits claimed. This process can be lengthy and at the moment the technical expertise and legal framework is lacking nationally. The current CCAD-GIZ REDD project for Central America aims to assist countries in developing readiness for REDD through stakeholder participation in REDD decision making and through the formulation of the necessary legal framework. Progress is slow but local stakeholders are pushing ahead with their own REDD projects.

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Unlike biodiversity and wildlife conservation, there is actual money to be generated from carbon conservation. Nations or companies who emit carbon dioxide through industry or development owe the world a tax levied on the carbon dioxide they release into the atmosphere. Under international agreement, such nations or companies can continue to release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as long as they pay their taxes. This tax payment scheme is called ‘carbon offsetting’ and involves the direct investment by a carbon dioxide emitting nation or company in a project that conserves carbon anywhere in the world. The amount of carbon conserved through the carbon conservation project then offsets the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide which is emitted by the nation or company. The amount of carbon conserved by the project is known as ‘carbon credits’. The nation or company can purchase these carbon credits to offset their emissions as and when they become available. As one would imagine there are myriad legal and administrative complications arising from carbon credit schemes; however, these are addressed in two different manners through international agreements on methodology and scope.

The �irst mechanism for addressing carbon credit schemes is via multi-lateral international agreements such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) or United Nations-Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). These involve multi-lateral agreement on terms and conditions of carbon credit schemes and are often dif�icult to administer or even dif�icult to come to fruition, as is the case with UN-REDD. The second manner of addressing carbon credit schemes is via private sector driven agreements under the umbrella of a carbon certi�ication scheme such as the Veri�ied Carbon Standard (VCS). Similar to forest certi�ication for logging, a third party veri�ier accredited by VCS is invited to certify that a carbon credit project is sound and legitimate. The project developer then uses the certi�icate as a means to sell the carbon credits to potential buyers such as power companies who emit carbon dioxide in their home country. Buyers are always looking for legitimate credits to purchase and this drives the development of private sector REDD initiatives such as those at the Boden Creek Ecological Preserve in the Toledo District, and Bullrun Overseas Ltd in the Mountain Pine Ridge. Other potential sites exist in Belize for REDD project development such as the Chiquibul forest, the focus of this paper.

The Carbon Potential of the Chiquibul forest

The value of a carbon conservation project lies in the amount of carbon contained per unit area in the forest. Different types of forests contain different amounts of carbon. A pine savannah for example, will typically hold less carbon than a tropical rain forest as there are many more trees per unit area in a tropical rain forest. A logged tropical rain forest will hold less carbon than an undisturbed rainforest. Within one type of forest there are different carbon pools which refer to a component of the above-ground or below ground forest structure that is comprised of carbon compounds. In a tropical rainforest such as the Chiquibul forest, the most obvious carbon pool is in the living trees. A not so obvious but important carbon pool is in large dead logs. Another carbon pool is in small dead sticks and leaves. Also there is the below ground carbon pool in the roots of trees. Then there is the carbon pool contained within bacteria and fungi living in the soil and in non-living carbon also present in the soil. By far the largest carbon pool of a tropical forest is in the soil. The second largest is in living trees.

When a tropical forest is cleared all trees and logs above ground are usually cut down and burnt, releasing nearly all the carbon contained within them into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. In addition, the roots of the trees die and slowly decompose or may also burn, thereby releasing the carbon into the atmosphere.

The carbon in the soil may also break down through decomposition and be released to the atmosphere. Nearly all the carbon contained within the various pools is committed to release as carbon dioxide when a tropical forest is cleared. Several thousand hectares of the Chiquibul forest have been cleared and burnt to the ground since the illegal Guatemalan incursions began in the 1980s. Today, the amount of carbon so released has a dollar value, thus it is imperative that as the starting point for a REDD project we determine quite precisely the amount of carbon contained within the forest. The initial steps to quantify carbon stocks in the Chiquibul forest have been completed and we now have defensible estimates of carbon stocks in the Chiquibul.

The results of the research carried out thus far indicates that the Chiquibul forest contains huge amounts of carbon in living trees, large logs, and small sticks, all of which were directly measured in 4 hectares of forest. The amount ranges from 118 to 200 metric tons of carbon per hectare. In comparable tropical forests the above ground carbon stock ranges from 62 to 232 metric tons of carbon per hectare. The values for carbon stocks in the Chiquibul forest is thus within known ranges for similar forest assemblages but at the higher end. Recent studies have shown that the Latin American region contains more carbon in its forest than any other tropical region. Belize is thus in a unique position to take advantage of the attention that REDD projects are receiving. However, more measurements across additional 1-hectare plots are required through scienti�ic research to validate the present carbon stock estimates.

Assuming an average above ground carbon per hectare value for the Chiquibul forest of 160 metric tons we can deduce a total estimated above ground carbon stock of 28.3 million metric tons in the entire 177,000 hectares of the Chiquibul forest. Using established ratios we can estimate total below ground carbon in the roots of trees at 8 million metric tons in the entire Chiquibul forest. This gives a total carbon stock of 36.3 million metric tons in all carbon pools except soil carbon, which we expect to be much greater. The carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent value for the total carbon in the Chiquibul forest is thus 133.1 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent, i.e. if all the carbon in the trees, roots, and logs in the Chiquibul forest would be converted into carbon dioxide it would weigh 133.1 million metric tons. Carbon credits are sold on the international market on metric tonnage of CO2 equivalent. Assuming a conservative carbon credit value of $7 USD per metric ton of CO2 equivalent, the entire Chiquibul forest can be considered to worth $931 million USD or almost $1 billion USD for the hypothetical liquidated value of its standing carbon. At the moment the Chiquibul’s carbon stocks are going up in smoke along the western border as illegal Guatemalan settlers continue to burn the Chiquibul forest, and log precious timber as far as 10 km inside the Chiquibul National Park and Caracol Archaeological Reserve.

A REDD project which halts or reduces the deforestation occurring in the Chiquibul forest can sell the carbon credits for the carbon prevented from release. This is called avoided deforestation and is a legitimate type of carbon credit scheme currently being developed in several countries across the globe. If we assume a baseline deforestation rate along the adjacency zone of 100 ha per year and apply a per hectare CO2 equivalent value for the affected forest of 752 metric tons, we can determine that annually around $526,000 USD worth of carbon dioxide equivalent is being emitted through illegal deforestation. If we assume a project period of 20 years, we can apply a total potential project value for a Chiquibul REDD project of $10.5 million USD which would have to be amortized over an agreed number of years. These funds will have to be invested in halting deforestation, the cost of which is currently unknown but based on current expenditures should be in excess of $500,000 USD per year.

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Unlike biodiversity and wildlife conservation, there is actual money to be generated from carbon conservation. Nations or companies who emit carbon dioxide through industry or development owe the world a tax levied on the carbon dioxide they release into the atmosphere. Under international agreement, such nations or companies can continue to release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as long as they pay their taxes. This tax payment scheme is called ‘carbon offsetting’ and involves the direct investment by a carbon dioxide emitting nation or company in a project that conserves carbon anywhere in the world. The amount of carbon conserved through the carbon conservation project then offsets the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide which is emitted by the nation or company. The amount of carbon conserved by the project is known as ‘carbon credits’. The nation or company can purchase these carbon credits to offset their emissions as and when they become available. As one would imagine there are myriad legal and administrative complications arising from carbon credit schemes; however, these are addressed in two different manners through international agreements on methodology and scope.

The �irst mechanism for addressing carbon credit schemes is via multi-lateral international agreements such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) or United Nations-Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). These involve multi-lateral agreement on terms and conditions of carbon credit schemes and are often dif�icult to administer or even dif�icult to come to fruition, as is the case with UN-REDD. The second manner of addressing carbon credit schemes is via private sector driven agreements under the umbrella of a carbon certi�ication scheme such as the Veri�ied Carbon Standard (VCS). Similar to forest certi�ication for logging, a third party veri�ier accredited by VCS is invited to certify that a carbon credit project is sound and legitimate. The project developer then uses the certi�icate as a means to sell the carbon credits to potential buyers such as power companies who emit carbon dioxide in their home country. Buyers are always looking for legitimate credits to purchase and this drives the development of private sector REDD initiatives such as those at the Boden Creek Ecological Preserve in the Toledo District, and Bullrun Overseas Ltd in the Mountain Pine Ridge. Other potential sites exist in Belize for REDD project development such as the Chiquibul forest, the focus of this paper.

The Carbon Potential of the Chiquibul forest

The value of a carbon conservation project lies in the amount of carbon contained per unit area in the forest. Different types of forests contain different amounts of carbon. A pine savannah for example, will typically hold less carbon than a tropical rain forest as there are many more trees per unit area in a tropical rain forest. A logged tropical rain forest will hold less carbon than an undisturbed rainforest. Within one type of forest there are different carbon pools which refer to a component of the above-ground or below ground forest structure that is comprised of carbon compounds. In a tropical rainforest such as the Chiquibul forest, the most obvious carbon pool is in the living trees. A not so obvious but important carbon pool is in large dead logs. Another carbon pool is in small dead sticks and leaves. Also there is the below ground carbon pool in the roots of trees. Then there is the carbon pool contained within bacteria and fungi living in the soil and in non-living carbon also present in the soil. By far the largest carbon pool of a tropical forest is in the soil. The second largest is in living trees.

When a tropical forest is cleared all trees and logs above ground are usually cut down and burnt, releasing nearly all the carbon contained within them into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. In addition, the roots of the trees die and slowly decompose or may also burn, thereby releasing the carbon into the atmosphere.

The carbon in the soil may also break down through decomposition and be released to the atmosphere. Nearly all the carbon contained within the various pools is committed to release as carbon dioxide when a tropical forest is cleared. Several thousand hectares of the Chiquibul forest have been cleared and burnt to the ground since the illegal Guatemalan incursions began in the 1980s. Today, the amount of carbon so released has a dollar value, thus it is imperative that as the starting point for a REDD project we determine quite precisely the amount of carbon contained within the forest. The initial steps to quantify carbon stocks in the Chiquibul forest have been completed and we now have defensible estimates of carbon stocks in the Chiquibul.

The results of the research carried out thus far indicates that the Chiquibul forest contains huge amounts of carbon in living trees, large logs, and small sticks, all of which were directly measured in 4 hectares of forest. The amount ranges from 118 to 200 metric tons of carbon per hectare. In comparable tropical forests the above ground carbon stock ranges from 62 to 232 metric tons of carbon per hectare. The values for carbon stocks in the Chiquibul forest is thus within known ranges for similar forest assemblages but at the higher end. Recent studies have shown that the Latin American region contains more carbon in its forest than any other tropical region. Belize is thus in a unique position to take advantage of the attention that REDD projects are receiving. However, more measurements across additional 1-hectare plots are required through scienti�ic research to validate the present carbon stock estimates.

Assuming an average above ground carbon per hectare value for the Chiquibul forest of 160 metric tons we can deduce a total estimated above ground carbon stock of 28.3 million metric tons in the entire 177,000 hectares of the Chiquibul forest. Using established ratios we can estimate total below ground carbon in the roots of trees at 8 million metric tons in the entire Chiquibul forest. This gives a total carbon stock of 36.3 million metric tons in all carbon pools except soil carbon, which we expect to be much greater. The carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent value for the total carbon in the Chiquibul forest is thus 133.1 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent, i.e. if all the carbon in the trees, roots, and logs in the Chiquibul forest would be converted into carbon dioxide it would weigh 133.1 million metric tons. Carbon credits are sold on the international market on metric tonnage of CO2 equivalent. Assuming a conservative carbon credit value of $7 USD per metric ton of CO2 equivalent, the entire Chiquibul forest can be considered to worth $931 million USD or almost $1 billion USD for the hypothetical liquidated value of its standing carbon. At the moment the Chiquibul’s carbon stocks are going up in smoke along the western border as illegal Guatemalan settlers continue to burn the Chiquibul forest, and log precious timber as far as 10 km inside the Chiquibul National Park and Caracol Archaeological Reserve.

A REDD project which halts or reduces the deforestation occurring in the Chiquibul forest can sell the carbon credits for the carbon prevented from release. This is called avoided deforestation and is a legitimate type of carbon credit scheme currently being developed in several countries across the globe. If we assume a baseline deforestation rate along the adjacency zone of 100 ha per year and apply a per hectare CO2 equivalent value for the affected forest of 752 metric tons, we can determine that annually around $526,000 USD worth of carbon dioxide equivalent is being emitted through illegal deforestation. If we assume a project period of 20 years, we can apply a total potential project value for a Chiquibul REDD project of $10.5 million USD which would have to be amortized over an agreed number of years. These funds will have to be invested in halting deforestation, the cost of which is currently unknown but based on current expenditures should be in excess of $500,000 USD per year.

54

have plundered the Chiquibul forest of nearly all its xate stocks, taking with it scores of parrots for the illegal pet trade and game meat for consumption. Illegal loggers have plundered nearly all the Mahogany and cedar along the border zone and have pushed even further into the Columbia Forest Reserve using well established cross-border logging roads that run for several kilometers into Belizean territory. Lastly, illegal squatters have cleared thousands of hectares (4,681 ha by 2009) and are pushing deeper into the Chiquibul forest. The problem is compounded by severely underequipped and undermanned security forces, regulatory agencies and co-management institutions operating in the area.

The annual budget of the Forest Department, the government agency tasked with responsibility for the Chiquibul Forest Reserve and National Park, is less than two million dollars and shrinking annually. Most of this is committed to personal emoluments and fuel allocations to be spent across the nation. No single protected area has its own budget line, creating a haphazard approach to protected areas management and very little in the way of tangible positive outcomes on the ground. The Belize Defence Force is likewise stretched thin on an annual basis, creating gaps in security presence along the border with Guatemala. The Institute of Archaeology, responsible for the Caracol Archaeological Reserve, also faces several constraints that limit their ability to protect the boundaries of the reserve. Friends for Conservation and Development, the only NGO taking on the challenge of conservation within the Chiquibul forest also suffers from a lack of secure long-term �inancial commitments and a shortage of human resources. The end result is that very little concerted, strategic, and effective actions take place within the Chiquibul forest to secure the ecological and sovereign integrity of the area on a long-term basis. Without this security, the area is committed to deforestation and forest degradation. In addition, industrial development in the Chiquibul forest is at risk as gold mines and timber operations are continuously raided and threatened by illegal Guatemalans roaming the forest. Expensive machinery have been destroyed, trees cut down, tourists assaulted, and research equipment damaged, all with the effect of hampering development in the Chiquibul forest. Without developing the full economic potential of the Chiquibul forest, the area will put a strain on rather than provide the signi�icant contribution to the national gross domestic product that it should. Security of the Chiquibul forest is the key to ensuring that sustainable development and conservation are realized. Biodiversity conservation and security comes at a considerable cost and �inance is where the de�iciency rests at the moment. One resource which the Chiquibul is rich in, but is not currently in the mainstream of economic development in Belize, is carbon. Payment for ecosystem services, namely carbon storage and sequestration, can provide the source of funding to ensure long-term security and maintenance of the Chiquibul forest.

Carbon Conservation

Similar to the conservation of wildlife or biodiversity, carbon conservation involves wise use of the carbon resource of a forest in order to ensure a zero or net positive change in carbon stock. It requires a change in the epistemological foundation of forest conservation. Typically we conserve a forest for its trees, wildlife or biodiversity, but fundamentally what we are really doing when we conserve the forest is we are conserving the carbon stock contained within the trees, logs, and soil. The carbon component of forest conservation was not previously important until the worldwide focus on global warming and climate change. Thus, previously we saw the forest for the trees (timber) and wildlife. Now, when we conserve a tropical forest we see it as carbon conservation, we conserve the carbon stored in the wood of trees, in the logs, and in the soil. In other words we prevent this carbon from being released into the atmosphere through burning or decomposition that occurs when we convert forest to other land use.

In addition to claiming the value of the avoided deforestation, the growth of trees can be claimed as increase in carbon stocks. Recent research in the Chiquibul forest suggests that for the most part the forest is increasing in carbon at around 9 metric tons per hectare per year. This increase is known as carbon sequestration and adds value to the overall project, which is then translated into higher credit prices.

Strategy options for a Chiquibul REDD project

Recently a joint scienti�ic research project partially funded by CATIE, a local researcher currently reading for a PhD at Lancaster University in the UK, and the Forest Department, implemented by Friends for Conservation and Development, resulted in the �irst defensible estimates of carbon stocks in the Chiquibul forest which forms the basis for this paper. In addition to carrying out the requisite �ield measurements in the Chiquibul forest, the research project sought to gain stakeholder input into options for developing a REDD project for the Chiquibul. The overall objective of such a REDD project would be to once and for all halt the illegal deforestation and destruction occurring in the Chiquibul forest. A workshop was thus held to obtain input from stakeholders as to the various options and steps required to achieve the �irst successful sale of carbon credits from the Chiquibul forest.

The �irst output from the stakeholder workshop held in June 2011 was in regards to the recommendation for the establishment of a Chiquibul REDD Committee charged with deliberating the best options for and executing the necessary steps to develop a REDD project for the Chiquibul forest. This Committee would require government sanction and representation. Of interest to this paper are the deliberations which would occur at the Committee level. This section thus seeks to inform such future deliberations by pointing out the series of decisions which would be necessary and highlighting available options.

Firstly, there is the need to establish without further deliberations a sound realization among members of the Committee that the Chiquibul forest holds great potential for a REDD project. If this realization exists then it is not necessary to �irst conduct a viability analysis, and the logical next step will be to expand the �ield assessment to capture additional variability in carbon stocks across the Chiquibul landscape. The �irst estimates of carbon stocks presented in this paper are based on the re-measurements of 4 permanent sample plots �irst established in the 1990s by the Forest Department with British aid. There are an additional 10 permanent plots which require re-measurements and which can help to increase the reliability of the estimates thus far derived.

Secondly, there is the need to decide on which route to pursue for the administration of the REDD project, either UN-REDD or private sector certi�ication by VCS via a third party. The choice of route will determine the next steps to take in project development. UN-REDD is currently still under debate and no formal agreement yet exists to govern carbon projects under this category. Additionally, to partake in UN-REDD as a pilot country, Belize would have to �irst develop a Project Information Note or R-PIN and have it approved by the UN-REDD committee. Financing would then have to be secured for the carbon credits claimed. This process can be lengthy and at the moment the technical expertise and legal framework is lacking nationally. The current CCAD-GIZ REDD project for Central America aims to assist countries in developing readiness for REDD through stakeholder participation in REDD decision making and through the formulation of the necessary legal framework. Progress is slow but local stakeholders are pushing ahead with their own REDD projects.

36

Introduction

In the early 1980’s the western border with Guatemala was truly a frontier, clearly de�ined by the linear contrast between cleared land on the Guatemalan side and high tropical forest on the Belizean side. Today the border, or adjacency zone as it is now called, is a different place with a curvi-linear pattern between the cleared land and the forest extending along most of the western border. Belize has lost forest and Guatemala has gained cropland. The border between cleared land and forest has moved into Belizean territory. This is alarming for many reasons but key to this paper is the fact that, as a nation, we had declared the very forest now being cleared by the Guatemalans as protected and important to our national heritage. For many years the collective effort between government agencies, the military, and local NGOs has struggled to halt or even reduce cross border illegal incursions occurring in the form of squatting, poaching, xate harvesting, logging, destruction of property, and armed robbery. An opportunity now exists to tap into a previously non-existent funding stream in order to provide the much needed �inances to fund security, conservation, management, and community outreach, all necessary activities to put a halt to the destruction of the Chiquibul forest.

The objective of this paper is to introduce the Chiquibul forest as a carbon conservation area, discuss the potential for carbon storage and sequestration in the Chiquibul, and explore strategy options to achieve certi�ication of carbon credits for the Chiquibul forest.

Background

The Chiquibul forest covers an extent of 177,000 hectares (437,187 acres) and includes the Chiquibul National Park, Chiquibul Forest Reserve and Caracol Archaeological Reserve, herein collectively referred to as the Chiquibul forest. This vast region of tropical forest located in the Maya Mountains accounts for some 7.7% of the total mainland area of Belize. Petroleum potential of the Chiquibul forest area is considered low due to the geology of the Maya Mountains but the area contains deposits of several valuable minerals such as gold and lead. Timber stocks of Mahogany are comparable to anywhere else in Belize and the tourism value of the Chiquibul forest is extremely high due to maya ruins and enormous caves. One resource which has not gone unnoticed in recent times is the hydrological potential of the area. The Chiquibul watershed helps to feed the Chalillo dam and at the same time provides a year long source of potable water for the Peten region of Guatemala and for Belizeans living downstream as the river meanders back across the border. The Chiquibul forest has garnered regional and international attention as a hotspot for biodiversity conservation. It is part of the largest remaining block of tropical forest north of the Amazon, known as the Selva Maya. The Chiquibul forest has gained renewed local and international attention as a potential candidate for a United Nations World Heritage site due to its natural and cultural signi�icance to Belize and the world. However, due to human and �inancial constraints the area has not been receiving the management attention at the level expected for such an important area, and it is now a highly threatened landscape.

The main divide of the Maya Mountains separates the Chiquibul forest from the southern and eastern Maya Mountains and the Macal River provides a natural boundary to the north. The result is that the Chiquibul forest is nestled within a unique geographical location which caters to the development of unique �lora and fauna assemblages which are among the most biodiverse yet threatened ecosystems on earth. This threat comes mainly from the western boundary of the Chiquibul forest which it shares with the republic of Guatemala. Threats to the Chiquibul forest are ever present and increasingly severe. Illegal xate cutters

Private sector REDD through third party certi�ication is quicker and more ef�icient. Criteria to govern REDD project development and administration already exists in the form of standards developed by international bodies such as VCS. Local laws governing REDD projects are not necessarily required but would be favorable. Typically this route is taken for private lands but all that is required for national lands would be proof of uncontested legal right to claim the carbon credits within a forest. This right can be vested by the government in a quasi-governmental body or a private sector �irm. These options would have to be explored more closely as given the current legal context, or absence thereof, legislation to govern ownership rights over carbon would �irst have to be written if a proper precedence for due diligence is to be set. In the past, proponents have sought rights to claim carbon credits in national forests under packaged agreements for reforestation. A precedence has already been set for such contractual agreements, reference the Mountain Pine Ridge Forest Company, although ultimately the government did not agree to award carbon rights under the circumstances. Packaging carbon rights with management responsibilities under a not-for-pro�it arrangement may be a viable option given the precedence set.

If private sector REDD is the option chosen for development of a Chiquibul REDD project, then the VCS methodology would have to be consulted for the type of project which quali�ies. The type of project determines the requisite steps which need to be taken or criteria which need to be met. Local expertise exists nationally to carry out project development under VCS as the standards are freely available online for study and use. However, marketing expertise in carbon trading is not currently within the national capacity and this component of project development would have to be outsourced to a reputable �irm experienced in working in Belize.

Finally, the biggest challenge to a successful REDD project for the Chiquibul forest will be to actually halt or reduce the deforestation currently occurring at the hands of illegal Guatemalan nationals. Monies from the sale of carbon credits will have to be re-invested in increasing monitoring, surveillance and border security and patrols through a well-equipped counter-deforestation joint force comprising the military, law enforcement agencies, and the co-management partner. Note that rather than pursuing the controversial borderline (sovereign integrity) role, the unit will be tasked with halting deforestation within the Chiquibul forest which has to be considered as separate and aside from any deliberations currently occurring regarding the Belize-Guatemala border. The Chiquibul Forest Joint Enforcement Unit plays this role presently though it is severely constrained to provide a credible deterrence. The unit is comprised of FCD, BDF and Police personnel presently. Administration of the re-investment of funds from the sale of carbon credits into actually halting deforestation will have to the done by a credible entity. Performance monitoring will be key to the successful implementation of counter-deforestation activities, as the inability to halt deforestation would mean reduced project value and eventual project failure. As private sector REDD is market driven project failure ultimately weakens the carbon market which results in lowered carbon prices.

How deforestation will actually be halted is beyond the scope of this document. However, success will depend on rigid patrols along the western boarder, placement of additional well-manned and equipped conservation posts, increased presence of national and international regulatory and monitoring agencies, cross-border collaborations, alternative livelihood opportunities in neighboring Peten, and a national and international public awareness campaign against deforestation in the Chiquibul. Of particular importance will be the ability to engage in real-time monitoring and reporting of incursions and subsequent actions to halt illegal deforestation. Communications will be the key to enable real-time monitoring from the remote

72

Executive Summary

The Chiquibul forest is storage for an immense amount of carbon. It is also an important area which provides clean water for both Belize and Guatemala. Mineral potential exists in the Chiquibul as well as large stocks of Mahogany and other valuable timber. Tourism potential is great due to the myriad number of caves and the Caracol ruins. Yet this economically and ecologically valuable forest is threatened and for the most part the threats continue to increase despite efforts from regulatory agencies, the military, and the co-management organization. The �inancial capital required to develop access infrastructure and management interventions required to halt deforestation and degradation, occurring at the hands of Guatemalans, is at the moment out of reach of the government and most local funding agencies. Human capital is also lacking due to funding constraints.

There is opportunity to engage in carbon conservation which can provide a means to generate the necessary funding to halt deforestation and ensure proper management of the Chiquibul forest’s wealth of resources. The Chiquibul forest contains comparably high stocks of carbon and is a regional reservoir for carbon and biodiversity. Valuation of the carbon storage and sequestration service provided by this forest should occur as part of the development of a REDD project. Strategies need to be developed to arrive at carbon credit sales which can generate in excess of $1 million BZD per annum for protection and management of this regionally and internationally important forest.

The Chiquibul ForestA Carbon Conservation Area

The Chiquibul ForestA Carbon Conservation Area

regions of the Chiquibul where conservation posts are positioned. Without real-time reporting the ef�icacy of conservation posts is limited. The political directorate both national and international, the media, and the general public ought to be aware on a real-time basis of instances of illegal deforestation so that necessary actions are taken. To enable real-time reporting from conservation posts it is necessary to have available satellite internet and radio communications to enable video uploads from patrols and over �lights and to communicate with international monitoring bodies such as the OAS.

In addition to avoided deforestation, the REDD framework has been widened to include enhancement of carbon stocks as opposed to strictly conserving carbon stocks. These types of projects fall under the REDD+/++ umbrella. Logging is currently taking place but there is room for improvements which can help to enhance carbon stocks and prevent undue release of carbon dioxide through avoidable tree mortality caused by poor logging practices or wastage due to poor milling practices. Such a project type is included under the VCS methodology but few if any successful methodologies have been proposed. The opportunity exists to explore this option more closely for the Chiquibul Forest Reserve.

In summary, UN-REDD is lacking in widespread implementation and Belize is not currently prepared to partake in the development of an R-PIN. Private sector REDD initiatives hold more promise but the awarding of carbon rights in national forests would �irst have to considered under a formal REDD policy. Unfortunately, such a policy is not being anticipated by private sector entities already engaging in project development under the VCS methodology. The lack of a national policy to address the award of carbon rights will not delay and should not delay REDD project development. A policy precedence already exists for the award of carbon rights, as well as timber rights and mineral rights, excepting that in the instance of carbon no speci�ic legal framework exists. As the existence of a precedence suggests, the lack of speci�ic legislation related to carbon does not preclude the development of agreements which award carbon rights over national forests to private sector entities. This should and will have to be explored in an urgent manner for REDD to bene�it the Chiquibul forest in a timely fashion.

18

The Chiquibul Forest

A Carbon Conservation Area

Proposal to: The Forest Department of the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment and the Institute of Archaeology for

consideration of the Chiquibul Forest as a pilot Carbon Conservation Area

From: Friends for Conservation and Development

Prepared by: Percival P. Cho (BSc, MSc)Tropical Forest Management Services

Financed by: CATIE-MAPCo-Financed by: TNC

June, 2011

C a r b o nFor more information contact:

Friends for Conservation and DevelopmentSan José Succotz, Cayo District

Tel: 823-2657Email: fcd@fcdbelize.org

website: www.fcdbelize.org