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With Ed Downs By Omni Traders International, LLC

By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

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Page 1: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

With Ed Downs

By Omni Traders International, LLC

Page 2: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

ATM Goal: High Returns, Less Risk

ATM Market State, Filtering,

Balancing, Ranking, Allocation

ATS Ranking Only.

Strategies ONLY

Page 3: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

Agenda for Part 1

UsingATM “How do I use the Universal Method every day?”

Symbol List “What symbol lists should I

consider?”

Strategies “How do I figure out which

Strategies to use in the software?”

Optimization “Should I optimize anything?

When and How?”

Page 4: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection
Page 5: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

Getting Started

Install & Test • Installation • ATM Toolbar • ATM Interface • Activation • Run ToDo List

Trading in Paper or Brokerage • Allocation • AutoTrade • Times to Run • Caveats

User Guide: http://downloads.nirvanasystems.com/ATMS/ATMS.pdf

Page 6: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

ATM in OmniTrader

ATM Tool Bar

ATM List

AutoTrade

Focus List Columns

Page 7: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection
Page 8: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

Securities: More is Better

Because ATM is RANKS Signals to find the best ones, having a good supply is best. The UNIVERSAL method used the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 100 (200 symbols) by default. The OmniScan feature in OmniTrader that makes it easy to expand the list.

OmniScan – Liquid Stocks

Page 9: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

Top 300 Liquid Stocks

Liquid Stocks Selected

Sort on Liquidity

Avg(C,14) * Avg(V,14)

Page 10: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

4,000 Optionable

IRA: Long Only. No Margin

$227 M

Average ROI: 64% Average MDD: 16%

By Mark Holstius See http://downloads.nirvanasystems.com/atms/posts.html

Page 11: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection
Page 12: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

Strategies: More is Better

Using More Good Strategies is better for the same reason more Symbols is better – More Signals to Rank. We can use OmniTrader’s analysis to identify the best population... And THEN use ATM to find the best Mix.

Page 12 of User’s Guide

Page 13: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

Strategy Selection

Select all Strategies in the Strategy List that are MECHanical.

Page 14: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

Run the ToDo List Performance

Select the top 7-10 top performers

Page 15: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

Best RTM Strategies

Strategy Direction Hit Rate PPT

Fib. Extension Long 70 0.97

MVX-15 Long 70 0.98

RS1-Timing Long 73 0.79

SS Pullbacks Long 65 1.15

XLS-19 V2 Long 70 1.02

X-MFI Long 71 0.82

X-PRC Long 71 1.63

X-STO Long 71 1.58

X-ULT Long 72 1.02

NSP-41 Long/Short 62 0.35

RTM7 Long/Short 66 0.38

VBX3 Long/Short 62 0.24

Page 16: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

Test Run

A run using these Strategies in each Market State showed favorable results. Avg Ann ROI: 44% Avg Ann MDD: 11%

Page 17: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection
Page 18: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

Optimization in ATM

The following things can be optimized in ATM:

1. Ranking Weights

2. Trade Allocation

3. Strategy Selection

4. Formula Parameters

Users who make changes to

“Universal” may want to optimize

1 & 2

Page 19: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

Targets for Optimization

Page 20: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

Optimization Methods

There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM:

• Exhaustive

• Incremental

• Bisection

Exhaustive will try every combination of every parameter in a market state. 10 * 10 = 100 iterations Incremental optimizes one parameter at a time in a market state, using defaults for the other values. 10 + 10 = 20 iterations Bisection will successively divide the range in half in to more efficiently search it, and stop when the improvement is less than the given Convergence %.

Page 21: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

Ranking Weights

Different Symbols will react differently to the ranking indicators. Optimize the Weights to find the best solution.

Ranking Values

Page 22: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

Allocation

We can adjust Long/Short balance through optimization in any Market State.

Optimizing Max Longs and Max

Shorts.

IMPORTANT: Set “Min” to 1 and “Max” to 10 and check “Optimize”

After saving settings, click “Run Analysis”

Page 23: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

After Optimizing any parameter(s)

Copy Parameters

Un-Check “Optimize”

Page 24: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection
Page 25: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

OmniVest Forum Resources

Members are posting about how they are using ATM in the OmniVest Forum. For those who do not have access to the Forum, the following page may be accessed to read copies of specific posts.

http://downloads.nirvanasystems.com/atms/posts.html

Page 26: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

Preview of Part 2

Ideas for Improving Performance Further:

1. Creating new Market States, including “micro states”

2. Apply Filters to isolate the Best opportunities in each Market State

3. Exploring the latest insights from Forum posts and user experiments.

Page 27: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection

The Incredible Power of ATM

Never before have we built technology that is GENERALLY this powerful. Expect more updates as we continue to learn about the market and leverage this powerful tool.

Without ATM

With ATM

Page 28: By Omni Traders International, LLC - Nirvana Systems Inc. · 2018-02-16 · Optimization Methods There are 3 ways to optimize values in ATM: • Exhaustive • Incremental • Bisection