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DELPHI. by Michael Gerbis, P.Eng. President, The Delphi Group. Innovation & climate change Igniting the Next Industrial Revolution. Overview. The Delphi Group Climate Change – where are we? The New Carbon Marketplace Thinking Out of the Box! Attributes to Thrive and Survive Discussion. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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bybyMichael Gerbis, P.Eng.Michael Gerbis, P.Eng.
President, The Delphi GroupPresident, The Delphi Group
Innovation & climate changeInnovation & climate changeIgniting the Next Industrial RevolutionIgniting the Next Industrial Revolution
DELPHIDELPHI
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
OverviewOverview
The Delphi GroupThe Delphi Group
Climate Change – where are we?Climate Change – where are we?
The New Carbon MarketplaceThe New Carbon Marketplace
Thinking Out of the Box!Thinking Out of the Box!
Attributes to Thrive and SurviveAttributes to Thrive and Survive
DiscussionDiscussion
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
The Delphi GroupThe Delphi Group In Business since 1987 In Business since 1987 ““Catalyze Change Through Innovative Catalyze Change Through Innovative
Strategies that Generate Environmental, Strategies that Generate Environmental, Social and Financial Dividends”Social and Financial Dividends”
Environment & Clean Energy Technologies
Climate Change & Sustainable Energy
Health and Environment
EXCEL, EECO, GLOBE and Corporate
1997 – 2001 Tripled Size and Revenues1997 – 2001 Tripled Size and Revenues
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
THE GREENHOUSE EFFECTTHE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Incoming Energy
Reflected EnergyOutgoing Energy
Energy TrappedBy Greenhouse Gases
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
International consensusInternational consensus
1.1. Earth is warmingEarth is warming 7 of 10 warmest years on record in the 1990s IPCC projected range 1.0 - 3.5º C over next 100
years
2.2. Discernible human influenceDiscernible human influence
3.3. Trend to Continue Resulting in ImpactsTrend to Continue Resulting in Impacts more extreme weather events (insurance!!) human health, environment, economy, ocean levels,
river and lake systems, agriculture, tourism… Canada more affected than most countries because of
its large size & northern land mass
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
Impacts of Climate ChangeImpacts of Climate Change
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
Climate ChangeClimate Change
UNFCCC (1992)UNFCCC (1992) The Kyoto Protocol (1997)The Kyoto Protocol (1997)
Agreed to 5.2% reductions of GHG CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6
Flexibility Mechanisms (CDM, JI, IET) & sinks
Critical Dates & TimelinesCritical Dates & Timelines 1990 baseline 1998-2008 transition period 2008-2012 budget period
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
CANADA’S EMISSIONS PROJECTIONCANADA’S EMISSIONS PROJECTIONAND THE KYOTO TARGETAND THE KYOTO TARGET
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Kyoto targetsix percent below 1990 levelForecast
694
MT CO2 - equivalent
682
764
199 Mtor
26%
565
601
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
Projected GHG EMISSIONS BY Projected GHG EMISSIONS BY PROVINCE PROVINCE
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
1990 2010
Atlantic
Quebec
Ontario
Man
itoba
Sask.
B.C. a
nd
Ter
ritorie
sAlber
ta
+23%
+40%
+38%+40%
+24%
+17%
+10%
MT CO2 - equivalent
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
Pathway to sustainabilityPathway to sustainabilityNorth American and European Markets ForNorth American and European Markets For
Environmental Goods and ServicesEnvironmental Goods and Services
Level ofLevel of
IndustrialIndustrial
PurchasingPurchasing
ActivityActivity
Stage 1: Stage 2: Stage 3: Stage 4:Stage 1: Stage 2: Stage 3: Stage 4:
Auditing and EMS and Environment SustainableAuditing and EMS and Environment Sustainable
Compliance ISO 14000 and Business DevelopmentCompliance ISO 14000 and Business Development
Integration DriversIntegration Drivers
Source: The Delphi Group, 1998Source: The Delphi Group, 1998
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
FOSSIL FUELS
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
The Path to Sustainable EnergyThe Path to Sustainable Energy
BIOMASS
• Dung
• Wood
• Straw
nuclear
Renewables
• Solar
• Wind
• Biomass
• Geothermal
?
• Fusion
• Hydrogen
• Tidal/wave
Carleton University 2002
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
The Emerging The Emerging “Carbon Marketplace”“Carbon Marketplace”
Converging ForcesConverging Forces Trend towards Trend towards
Sustainable EnergySustainable Energy Rapid InnovationRapid Innovation Global Energy Market Global Energy Market
ReformReform Concern over health Concern over health
impactsimpacts Kyoto PotentialKyoto Potential Opportunity & RiskOpportunity & Risk
Demand for
Climate Change
Solutions
Capital Stock Turnover
Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms
International Finance
Institutions
Economic Growth
Climate Change Mitigation Measures
Corporate Competitiven
ess and Eco-
Efficiency
Energy Market Liberalization
Energy Security and Interest in Renewables
Health and Air Quality Benefits
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
The Product of ConvergenceThe Product of Convergence
Quantity
The Right Choices
Eco-Efficiency Pollution Prevention Clean Energy
More Sustainable
Practices
Triple Bottom Line
Reduced Health Effects
GHG Reductions
Air Pollution Reduction
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
corporatecorporate Risks Risks
““Uncertainty Factor” Uncertainty Factor” Int’l Process “Devil’s in Details” National Leadership (lack thereof) Cost, cost, cost…benefits? Rate of Return & Price of Credits Unknown
““Share-Value Exposure”Share-Value Exposure” Differentials in GHG emissions Decreasing Value of Capital Stock Production, expansion, acquisitions
Relative Impact on Global CompetitorsRelative Impact on Global Competitors
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
Corporate OpportunitiesCorporate Opportunities
Gain Competitive AdvantageGain Competitive Advantage Productivity, Energy Efficiency Differentiate Yourself from Competitors
Hedge Your Bets – Offset Future RiskHedge Your Bets – Offset Future Risk Added Value through Offset CreditsAdded Value through Offset Credits DiversificationDiversification
Leverage technology and R&D Exploit new markets Create new value-added business ventures
Enhance Shareholder ValueEnhance Shareholder Value
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
Leaders & laggardsLeaders & laggards
Four Levels of ActionFour Levels of Action Strategic Integration Sitting on Fence (Baselines Being Done) ‘Not on the Radar Screen’ Yet Moving against the flow
Leaders Moving AheadLeaders Moving Ahead BP, Shell Int’l, Transalta, DuPont, Suncor
Energy, OPG, Alcan, Dofasco Cities of Toronto, Calgary, Banff, Halifax Denmark, UK, Netherlands
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
Emerging InnovationEmerging Innovation
600 diversified firms 600 diversified firms Generally High-tech Generally High-tech
solutionssolutions Strong R&DStrong R&D $3 billion & 23,000 $3 billion & 23,000
jobsjobs Global Market Global Market
between $150 - $400 between $150 - $400 billion billion
Increasing 5%/yrIncreasing 5%/yr
ClimateChange
Companies
Eco-Efficiency
BuildingDesign &Operation
AdvancedMaterials
Renewable& NewEnergy
E-Commerce
Biotech
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
Many companies see Many companies see opportunitiesopportunities
Buildings New Processes
Fuel Cells Future Fuels
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
So What Does This Have to Do So What Does This Have to Do with me?with me?
New Business Realities => Next Industrial New Business Realities => Next Industrial Revolution*Revolution*
Radical Increases in Resource Productivity Biomimicry Evolution From Manufacturing to Service and Flow
Economy Increasing Investment in Natural Capital
*Taken from “Natural Capitalism” by P. Hawken, A. & H. Lovins
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
IndustryIndustry“Thinking out of the box”“Thinking out of the box”
Interface – New Factory in Shanghai had a 92% Interface – New Factory in Shanghai had a 92% energy saving by new designenergy saving by new design
Looked at whole pumping system and discarded old style of economics
Sized pumps based on large pipes rather than small pipes (50% increase in dia = 86% drop in friction)
Installed pipes first then equipment
12 fold reduction in energy, simpler and faster construction, less floor space, easier maintenance, and better performance (e.g. saved 70 kW of heat loss)
*Taken from “Natural Capitalism” by P. Hawken, A. & H. Lovins
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
BuildingsBuildings“thinking out of the box”“thinking out of the box”
The International Netherlands Group (ING) BankThe International Netherlands Group (ING) Bank 540,000 ft540,000 ft22
Strong Vision & a Strong Vision & a Multidisciplinary TeamMultidisciplinary Team
3 Year Process – Everyone 3 Year Process – Everyone Had to Understand Had to Understand EverythingEverything
Added Capital = $700kAdded Capital = $700k Annual Energy Savings of Annual Energy Savings of
$2.9 mil (1996) / 1/10$2.9 mil (1996) / 1/10thth 15% reduction in 15% reduction in
absenteeismabsenteeism
*Taken from “Natural Capitalism” by P. Hawken, A. & H. Lovins
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
TransportationTransportation“Thinking out of the box”“Thinking out of the box”
Whole-system designWhole-system design ultra light; low-drag; ultra light; low-drag;
hybrid-electric; hybrid-electric; efficient accessories efficient accessories
3 to 53 to 5 x better fuel x better fuel economyeconomy
equal or better equal or better performance, safety, performance, safety, aaffordability ffordability
*Taken from “Natural Capitalism” by P. Hawken, A. & H. Lovins
http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid386.asp
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
““thinking out of the box”thinking out of the box”Maunsell – Aberfeldy Golf Club Footbridge BridgeMaunsell – Aberfeldy Golf Club Footbridge Bridge
Major span – 63 mMajor span – 63 m 1st1st major advanced major advanced
compositecomposite footbridge footbridge Maunsell worked with Maunsell worked with
Dundee UnivDundee Univ. . engineering students engineering students who who provided theprovided the bridge bridge erection team.erection team.
Assembled in 10 weeks, Assembled in 10 weeks, no craneage, minimal no craneage, minimal foundations, 20 yr foundations, 20 yr maintenance schedulemaintenance schedule
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
““thinking out of the box”thinking out of the box”Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
Market-based mechanism:Market-based mechanism:– Assist Annex 1 countries to comply with
their reduction targets under Kyoto– Increase rate of return, financial
attractiveness– Reduce risk and enhance markets
Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development– Build developing country capacity– Transfer state-of-the-art technologies– Environmental and health co-benefits
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
Attributes to THRIVE Attributes to THRIVE & survive& survive
Breadth of UnderstandingBreadth of Understanding Strong technical skills Business Savvy – but it’s not just about
old style economics Interpersonal & Communication Skills Ability to Think Out of the Box (and assess
different perspectives) Work within a “Fear of Change” Be Adaptable
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
““Thinking Out of the Box”Thinking Out of the Box”
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
““thinking out of the box”thinking out of the box”
““Innovation is not always about having Innovation is not always about having a new idea, more often it’s about a new idea, more often it’s about
stopping having an old ideastopping having an old idea."."
Carleton University 2002 DELPHIDELPHI
The Delphi GroupThe Delphi Group
For More Information Contact:For More Information Contact:
Mike Gerbis, P.Eng.Mike Gerbis, P.Eng.President, The Delphi GroupPresident, The Delphi Group
428 Gilmour St.428 Gilmour St.Ottawa, Ontario K2P 0R8Ottawa, Ontario K2P 0R8
Tel: (613) 562-2005 Fax: (613) 562-2008Tel: (613) 562-2005 Fax: (613) 562-2008email: email: [email protected]@delphi.caWebsite: Website: www.delphi.cawww.delphi.ca