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Business Sensitive | 1Horizon Energy Group
[Solar PV]x[Microgrids]The Matrix Solution
SunSpec Alliance Members
Steve Pullins, PresidentFebruary 2013
Business Sensitive | 2Horizon Energy Group
Solar PV Ties to Microgrid• Multiple resources• Campus rooftops• Active controls to
support dispatch and load management
• Effective use of energy storage that can work in conjunction with PV
• Above average use of renewables
Business Sensitive | 3Horizon Energy Group
[Solar PV]x[Microgrids]
Low Capacity FactorLow O&M Cost
At or Near Peak LoadNo Min Capacity at Night
No EmissionsNo Fuel Transport Cost
Very High Capacity FactorCost Competitive: 2 - 40 MW
Resource PortfolioLarge Diurnal Power Difference
Emissions ReductionVery High Reliability
Important Questions:Will natural gas be a long-term baseload affordable fuel resource?Will biogas or biomass become a long-term baseload affordable fuel resource?Will the capital cost of installing solar PV continue to lower – lower LCODE?
The truth of LCODE (levelized cost of delivered energy)
Business Sensitive | 4Horizon Energy Group
Example: 1 Microgrid / 3 Sites / 7 Systems
…in San Diego
Business Sensitive | 5Horizon Energy Group
Natural Gas Challenge
Business Sensitive | 6Horizon Energy Group
Natural Gas Challenge
Source: EIA AEO20122017
Business Sensitive | 7Horizon Energy Group
Natural Gas Challenge
Source: EIA AEO2012
Business Sensitive | 8Horizon Energy Group
Natural Gas Challenge
Source: EIA AEO2012
Business Sensitive | 9Horizon Energy Group
Projecting Volatility
Source: EIA AEO2012
Business Sensitive | 10Horizon Energy Group
Natural Gas Competition
Source: EIA AEO2012
Business Sensitive | 11Horizon Energy Group
Emissions Challenge
Source: EIA AEO2012
Business Sensitive | 12Horizon Energy Group
Renewables Challenge
Source: EIA AEO2012
Business Sensitive | 13Horizon Energy Group
Energy Storage Challenge
Source: EIA AEO2012
Business Sensitive | 14Horizon Energy Group
Case Study – Sports Venue
• 4.2 MW of PV• 1.6 MW of energy storage• 107% renewable energy served
for venue load (523 MWh excess)
• Consider 50 MWh excess production available for charging
• 228 kWh available for charging at 219 events annually for 3 hrs
• 76 EV’s charged on solar energy
The sports venue has a unique customer service that can set it apart.
Now consider the dispatchable 76 kW regulation service that could be used by the utility on this 10 MVA circuit at a peak time.
Business Sensitive | 15Horizon Energy Group
Load and Resource Profile
Business Sensitive | 16Horizon Energy Group
Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE at Gen Output)
Source: EIA AEO2012
Capacity Factor?
2017 NG Fuel Cost runs ~$4.30/mmBTU.
None of these costs include the T&D costs to get the power to the consumer, which adds ~10%.
Business Sensitive | 17Horizon Energy Group
Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE at Gen Output)
Source: EIA AEO2012
“The levelized cost calculations presented in the tables apply only to utility-scale use of those technologies.”
Business Sensitive | 18Horizon Energy Group
OK, Let’s Talk Capacity Factors
Source: Data from EIA Electric Power Annual 2011 (Jan2013)
2011 Fleet Average Capacity Factor = 43.2%
Business Sensitive | 19Horizon Energy Group
Levelized Cost of Delivered Energy (LCODE)Technology Cap.
FactorCorrected
Cap. FactorLCOE
($/kWh)Corrected
LCOE ($/kWh)LCODE
($/kWh)
Coal 85% 63.8% $0.097 - $0.139 $0.157 $0.173
NG-fired CC 87% 42.2% $0.063 - $0.090 $0.158 $0.174
NG-fired CT 30% 10.1% $0.102 - $0.128 $0.342 $0.376
Nuclear 90% 90.3% $0.114 $0.114 $0.125
Geothermal 91% 91% $0.098 $0.098 $0.108
Biomass 83% 83% $0.115 $0.115 $0.126
Wind 33% 33.9% $0.096 $0.096 $0.106
Central Solar PV 25% 25% $0.153 $0.153 $0.168
Distributed PV* 22% 22% $0.136 / $0.075**
Hydro 53% 39.8% $0.089 $0.119 $0.131
All in 2010 USD *One of our projects - 7% cost from Energy Storage **With Federal Investment Tax Credits
Business Sensitive | 20Horizon Energy Group
Conclusions
• The distributed solar PV resource will almost always find a place in microgrids because of the cost and partial coincidence with peak load.
• Need to push lower PV installation costs.• Need more high quality PV sources that prove 30+
year lifetimes.• While the 0.5% annual degradation could be lower, it
is financially workable now.• Converged distributed PV / Energy Storage provide
options that are well suited to microgrids.
Business Sensitive | 21Horizon Energy Group
Thank you!
Questions?
Contact info:Steve Pullinsspullins@horizonenrgygroup.com865.300.7395www.horizonenergygroup.com