Business Planning Business Planning Analysis-04 Analysis-04

Business Planning Business Planning Analysis-04 Analysis-04

Name: Lee Xiantao Branches: Business School , Binhai

UniversityTel: 15253221531

E-mail: Lixiantao365126@126.com

PreparationPreparation

Question:Question:

(1) Are you familiar with China’s property (1) Are you familiar with China’s property market? market?

How do you think about the future of property How do you think about the future of property market?market?

(2) Is there any really asset bubble in property (2) Is there any really asset bubble in property market?market?

How do you think about “investment” and How do you think about “investment” and “speculation“speculation”” ??

Property MarketProperty Market in Chinain China

(1) Evolutionary road of property market(1) Evolutionary road of property market

(2) Marketing analysis of property market(2) Marketing analysis of property market

(3) Asset bubble in property market(3) Asset bubble in property market

(4) Funding chain of property developers(4) Funding chain of property developers

(5) Mainstay industry(5) Mainstay industry

---China’s Urbanization---China’s Urbanization VS. Pseudo-VS. Pseudo-Urbanization Urbanization

(6) Opportunity and challenge of property (6) Opportunity and challenge of property marketmarket

Economy developmentEconomy development

Gini coefficientGini coefficientYear GDP per

capitaGini

Coefficient1980 $312 0.230

1985 $288 0.341

1990 $339 0.348

1995 $601 0.389

2000 $946 0.417

2005 $1703 0.470

2010 $2520 0.520

Marketing analysis of Marketing analysis of property marketproperty marketland financeland finance

Marketing analysis of Marketing analysis of property marketproperty market(2) Reference data—Housing price in Beijing(2) Reference data—Housing price in Beijing

Marketing analysis of Marketing analysis of property marketproperty market(2) Reference data—Housing price in Shanghai(2) Reference data—Housing price in Shanghai

Marketing analysis of Marketing analysis of property marketproperty market(2) Reference data—Housing price in Guangzhou(2) Reference data—Housing price in Guangzhou

Marketing analysis of Marketing analysis of property marketproperty market(2) Reference data—Housing price in Shenzhen(2) Reference data—Housing price in Shenzhen

Marketing analysis of Marketing analysis of property marketproperty market(2) Reference data—Housing price in Qingdao(2) Reference data—Housing price in Qingdao

Marketing analysis of Marketing analysis of property marketproperty market(2) Reference data—Housing price in Jinan(2) Reference data—Housing price in Jinan

Marketing analysis of Marketing analysis of property marketproperty market(3) Reference data—the extreme case (Housing (3) Reference data—the extreme case (Housing

price in Tongzhou)price in Tongzhou)

1. Market analysis ---Domestic 1. Market analysis ---Domestic perspectiveperspective

Funding chain of property Funding chain of property developersdevelopers

①① Structure of fund sourceStructure of fund source

Domestic loan Domestic loan (mortgage assets for cash (mortgage assets for cash from bank)from bank)

Self-financing Self-financing (own capital)(own capital)

Buyers deposit Buyers deposit (Buyer)(Buyer)

Advance payment Advance payment (Buyer—30%)(Buyer—30%)

Housing mortgage Housing mortgage (mortgage house for (mortgage house for banking loan—70%)banking loan—70%)

Funding chain of property Funding chain of property developersdevelopers

②② Policy adjustmentsPolicy adjustments

☆ ☆ raise down payment on the first house purchase raise down payment on the first house purchase to over 30%;to over 30%;

the second house purchase to over the second house purchase to over 50%50%

☆ ☆ no lending to third house purchase;no lending to third house purchase;

☆ ☆ property tax implementation is just timing issue;property tax implementation is just timing issue;

☆ ☆ limit purchaselimit purchase

Urbanization and Pseudo-Urbanization and Pseudo-urbanizationurbanization

① ① UrbanizationUrbanization

The following infrastructure indicators may serve The following infrastructure indicators may serve to provide some valid evidences of China’s to provide some valid evidences of China’s urbanization level at this moment:urbanization level at this moment:

☆ ☆ Population of tap water accessibility accounts Population of tap water accessibility accounts for 58% of urban population;for 58% of urban population;

☆ ☆ Population of gas accessibility accounts for Population of gas accessibility accounts for 55% of urban population;55% of urban population;

☆ ☆ Highway density is 4022 km per 10,000 sq kmHighway density is 4022 km per 10,000 sq km

☆ ☆ Railway density is 90 km per 10,000 sq kmRailway density is 90 km per 10,000 sq km

Urbanization and Pseudo-Urbanization and Pseudo-urbanizationurbanization

②② Pseudo-urbanizationPseudo-urbanization

The census data shows that, The census data shows that, for those whose for those whose residential place and registered place are not residential place and registered place are not the samethe same, and also had left their registered , and also had left their registered place for more than half a year, the place for more than half a year, the population is 261,386,075. This number of population is 261,386,075. This number of floating population will make China’s floating population will make China’s urbanization rate lies between 30.17% and urbanization rate lies between 30.17% and 49.68%.49.68%.

Opportunity/challenge of Opportunity/challenge of property marketproperty market

ConclusionConclusion