Business Opportunities in the Real-time Automation & Controls (RTAC) Marketplace

Ed Finamore, Electric Utility Practice Mgr., InfoNetrix LLC

Sunday, Sept. 7, 2003 • Wyndham Anatole Hotel

Dallas, Texas

Presentation Overview

• Goals: Today 2003 & Beyond

• Summary of Q2-2003 Study Results

• Base Year 2002 Results

• What’s Ahead

Goals: Today

• Provide Information Study Methodology Study Leadership

and Team

• We Listen! Feedback on

Project Activity Reports

Suggestions for Improvement

• Data Format• Database Content

Goals: 2003

• Build the best team• Become the Market

Research Leader in: T&D Automation Substation Automation

• Achieve 100% Client Satisfaction

• Work Hard & Have Fun• Be recognized as being

the best source for project and market data for all targeted markets

InfoNetrix Program Content

Study Team

• RTAC Study Team Mike Smith, Principal-in-Charge Ed Finamore, PE, MBA, Project Manager

• Don Block, MS, PE, Senior Analyst• Russ Savage, Sr. Analyst

Study Methodology

• Study Methodology Build a team of utility IT/automation experts

• Team members have an average of 20+ years of utility automation/IT experience

Build a database of all electric utilities in the US and Canada

• Database contains most US/Canadian utilities• Interview coverage targets utilities with 30,000+

metered customers

Leverage the skills, expertise, and experience of the study team and research methodology to provide project data and market insights

Report Format & Content

• Business Horizons™ Reports Quarterly Report Format Electronic Delivery* MS-Excel spreadsheet

format (optional) Custom reports (optional) Various report tabulations

(*Website access coming soon)

Company Company XXXXXXXXXContact XXX XXXX Title SCADA Supv Project 1

Address XXXX St/Pr XX T /D/ B B

City XXXX Zip 12345 LDate 04/12/02

Phone (XXX) XXX-XXXX Ext Meters 310000

Fax T Subs 6

Email Dsubs 34

Type IOU

Existing Existing Sys EMS/SCADA NumberRTUs 40

Applications SCADA, Power flow analysis, State Cost, $000s $1,100

Estimator

Cost F/S Soft

Supplier ACS Award Date 06/01/88

OperatingSys Unix Completion Date 10/01/00

Consultant KEMA Consult Award 06/01/87

Con Tasks Specification ConsultCost,$000s $75

Communication Leased lines CommADate

CommSupplier CommLDate

Protocol(s) ACS,DNP CommCost, $000s $0

Planned Planned Sys Add DA Pl # RTUs 20

Plan'd App Automated switching, recloser Budget, $000s $150

control, Feeder monitoring

Budget F/S Soft

PossSuppliers ACS, S&C, Open Spec Date 01/01/03

Plan'dOpSys Unix Bid Date 04/01/03

Award Date 07/01/03

PossConsultant None ConsultAdate

Consult Tasks Budget, $000s $0

Plan'd Comm. Open CommAdate 07/01/03

PossCommSup Open CommBud,$000s $50

Planned Protocol DNPCommentsWill soon begin the migration to DNP. KEMA was involved in the specification on the 1998 system and also was involved in the site acceptance testing and cost justification for the 2000 system. Some of the substations listed above are T & D. Using Cooper reclosers. DA is being explored now - they hope to get started in 2003.

Project Datasheet Format

Summary of Q2-2003 Results

• Total Calls are Tabulated By Type By Size

• Projects Identified/Sorted into Various Categories Systems RTU Add-ons Communications Consulting

Dollar Values Summarized to Provide Current Forecasts

And General Industry Outlook

Total Utilities Called: Q2-03 (by Type)

Total: 267 Utilities

5%11%

18%

23%

43%CAN

FSD

IOU

MUN

REC

Total Projects Identified, Q2 2003

Number of Projects

Number of RTUs

Total ValueMillions

Systems 87 862 51.2

RTU Add-ons 48 1571 9.7

Communications 59 N/A 5.1

Consulting 14 N/A 1

Total Utilities Called: Q2-03 (by Size) Total: 267 Utilities

37%

30%

12%

13%

8% 0%

<20K

20 - 50K

50 - 100K

100 - 500K

>500K

37%

30%

12%

13%

8% 0%

<20K

20 - 50K

50 - 100K

100 - 500K

>500K

A Few Statistics About the Q2 Projects

• Largest System Project Identified $5 million (est.) SCADA/DA Upgrade/Add-on at a Large IOU

• Smallest System Project Identified $10,000 SCADA Project at a Small Municipal

• Average $ Value of a System Project Mean = $588,000 Median = $300,000

Dollar Value of Reported Q2 System Projects Exceeds Q1 Results

The Market Recovery Is Gaining Momentum!

Observations, Trends, etc.

• Q1-2003 Rebound Continued in Q2 Many smaller custom projects- RECs involved Base monitoring vs. advanced systems Less software; more intelligent devices (IEDs) More shared assets: meters, radios, outage/load

management functions

• Protocol Issues DNP – de facto standard, but less of an issue Use of Ethernet continues to grow

• Communications Trends Increased use of fiber networks/video security Cyber-security vulnerability issues

Summary of 2002 Baseline Results

• Total Calls Made By Type By Size

• Total # of Projects Identified, #/RTUS, & $ Value Systems RTU Add-ons Communications Consulting

• Supplier Summary “Mentions” By Segment

2002 Utilities Called By Type:Good Representative Sample

5% 5%

15%

1%

28%

46%

CAN

FSD

IOU

ISO/RTO

MUN

REC

5% 5%

15%

1%

28%

46%

CAN

FSD

IOU

ISO/RTO

MUN

REC

2002 Utilities Called By Size:All Major Utilities Contacted

37%

31%

12%

11%

9% 0%

<20K

20 - 50K

50 - 100K

100 - 500K

>500K

37%

31%

12%

11%

9% 0%

<20K

20 - 50K

50 - 100K

100 - 500K

>500K

Total Projects Identified (2002)

Number of Projects

Number of RTUs

Total ValueMillions

Systems 206 3,325 120.7

RTU Add-ons 108 10,240 34.7

Communications 149 N/A 12.2

Consulting 47 N/A 3.8

Supplier “Mentions” Summary

SUPPLIERS Percentage of "Mentions" Among Planned System Projects

Utility Type CAN FSD IOU MUN REC Overall

ABB --- --- 2% 3% 5% 4%

ACS --- 7% 2% 6% 8% 6%

Alstom ESCA --- --- 15% --- --- 2%

C3-ilex --- --- --- 2% 2% 1%

GE 17% --- 5% 2% 3% 4%

Metso --- --- --- 5% 3% 3%

Open Systems Intl --- 7% --- 1% 6% 3%

QEI --- --- --- 6% 4% 4%

Qualitrol --- --- 5% --- 1% 1%

SEL 11% 13% 2% 3% 3% 4%

Siemens 6% --- 5% 7% 4% 5%

Survalent 6% --- --- 3% --- 1%

Other 6% --- 17% 13% 14% 13%

None Mentioned 54% 73% 47% 49% 47% 49%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

What’s Ahead…

• Q3-2003 Report Progress Started in July, 2003 Project Activity Report to be delivered mid-October 2003 Will contain results of approximately 250 utility updates

• 2003 Year-end Results Will again call nearly 1,000 US/Canadian electric utilities Upcoming Summits

• TDMS Spring 2004 Summit tentatively scheduled for January 2004 in Orlando (co-located with 2004 DistribuTech Conference)

• GMCS 2004 planned for April in Seattle (co-located with GITA Conference)

• UCCS planned for May 2004 in Miami (Partnership with UtiliPoint International; Albuquerque, NM)

• New programs for 2003 & 2004 coming soon: Stay Tuned!

Thank you for your participation!

The InfoNetrix Team