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© British Telecommunications plc
Business Modelling Challenges
• No agreed real world definition of the term “Business Model”
• Effective evaluation requires confidential information– The “numbers” and not just the “story”– Can only be carried out by the owner of the potential
model
• The range of potential business models is unbounded– If someone finds a good business model they will operate
it but not broadcast it– Which are of interest?– Expression of interest may itself be confidential
• Hence our approach focuses on strategies for the articulation and evaluation of candidate models
© British Telecommunications plc
The Approach
• We investigated the concept of business models – What they actually constitute– Why they are important– What factors they should address
• We have defined what we understand by the term “business model”– Based on extensive literature survey and NextGRID
experience
• We also provided analysis “tools” that will assist in the evaluation of a prospective business model
© British Telecommunications plc
Definition of Business Model
• Business models themselves are complex and not well understood – they lack any formal basis that would facilitate both description and comparison.– Linder and Cantrell assert that:
• “executives can't even articulate their business models. Everyone talks about business models but 99 percent have no clear framework for describing their model.”
• Minimal description– The business model articulates how the business makes
money
Linder, J.C., Cantrell, S. (2000): "Changing business models: surveying the
landscape", White Paper, Institute for Strategic Change, Accenture
© British Telecommunications plc
Extended definition (1)• Chesborough and Rosenbloom specify that the 6 functions of a
business model are to: – Articulate the value proposition– Identify a market segment, i.e. the users to whom the offering is
useful and for what purpose, and specify the revenue generation mechanism for the firm.
– Define the structure of the value chain within the firm to create and distribute the offering and determine the complementary assets needed to support the firm’s assets in this chain.
– Examine the cost structure and profit potential of producing the offering given the value proposition and value chain structure chosen.
– Describe the position of the firm within the value network linking suppliers and customers including identification of potential complementors and competitors.
– Formulate the competitive strategy by which the innovating firm will gain and hold advantage over rivals.
Chesborough, Henry; Rosenbloom, Richard: The role of the business model in capturing
value from innovation: evidence from Xerox Corporation’s technology spin-off companies, Industrial and Corporate Change, Volume 11, Number 3 pp529-555.
© British Telecommunications plc
Extended definition (2)
• Magretta identifies 2 key areas in a business model description– The story – The numbers
• Both have to make sense
When business models don't work, it's because they fail either the narrative test (the story doesn't make sense) or the numbers test (the P&L [profit and loss] doesn't add up).
Magretta, J: Why Business Models Matter, Harvard Business Review 2002, Vol 80; Part 5, ISSN 0017-8012, pages 86-93.
© British Telecommunications plc
Interesting observations
• The most common format for the business model is a single page of narrative text
• A business model does not explicitly include implementation technologies– it is driven by business requirements and simply enabled
by technology
• Articulation of a business model is no guarantee of its success– only implementation will tell if the model works or not
• New business models are increasingly viewed as key intellectual property, and often attempts are made to protect them by patent
© British Telecommunications plc
Evaluation Tools
• Business model evaluation questionnaire– Asks a prospective operator of a Grid business model
pertinent questions– Acts as a checklist for important issues: ensures that they
are considered when creating “The Story”– A number of candidate business models have been
identified and analysed in detail using the questionnaire
• Risk & Reward “Balance Sheet” analysis– Risks and rewards represented as assets and liabilities
on a balance sheet: uses standard business accounting practice
– Can identify business decision points, value exchange and risks
© British Telecommunications plc
Business Model Evaluation Questionnaire
• What is the offering to the customer? – This is what the customer will pay for. Here there must be
enough value in the eyes of the customer that they will be prepared to pay for it.
– The business model must provide a description of what the offering is to the customers, in terms that they will understand and be interested in.
– Why should customers be interested? There must be a convincing justification of why the customers will want your offering.
© British Telecommunications plc
• What value do you add? – This is essentially: why are you in business? What is the
value added proposition of your model? – How do you transform the “raw materials” you buy in into
products or services that your customers want? – Why should customers come to you and not your
competitors? – What is your unique selling point? – Is the added value you provide clear to your customers?
© British Telecommunications plc
• What internal motivations for being in business are there? – The obvious one of these is to make money, but there
may be more to it – for example, you may have spare capacity that you wish to make money on.
– List these internal motivations and identify if and where they conflict or support the delivery of the service
• What are the costs for delivering the offering to the customer? – These costs are many and varied, and may not all be
financial. – Analysis of these costs is an input to the balance sheet
analysis
© British Telecommunications plc
• What is required to be bought in so as to deliver the offering? – What is required to make your offering – i.e. what are
your raw materials? – Who are the suppliers? What do you purchase from
them? – How much raw materials are required? – What is your sensitivity to supply disruption?
• How are prices set? – What are your costs? – How much profit do you want to make?– What will the market stand?
© British Telecommunications plc
• How will customers pay for the service? – How is the service priced? – What are the “units of consumption”? – What payment models?
• Utility computing where customers pay for what they use• Subscription where customers pay a fixed amount
regularly for a set amount of capacity• Others?
• How is a service provisioned for? – If you operate finite resources, how can you determine
which of your customers gets to use them and when? – How are you sure you can answer the requests made on
your service?
© British Telecommunications plc
• In what way are relationships important to you? – What are your relationships with all the actors you need
to deal with? – Where are you in the value chain? Who are the
suppliers? Who are the customers?
• What are the market characteristics? – What is the market sector? Is there a specific good or
service type that the market you are targeting is concerned with?
– How big is the market? – Who is in it? What characterises them? – How mature is the market? – How can this determine the prices you can set?
© British Telecommunications plc
• How will you make customers aware of and want your offering? – Who is the target audience? – How can we reach them? – How can we make them want to buy our service?
• What are the risks in this business model? – Describe the risks of this business model. For example:
• Do you have a lot of machines that could potentially be unutilised?
• Are you dependent on one supplier? • Are there elements of QoS in an SLA beyond your
control?
– What are the countermeasures to these risks?
© British Telecommunications plc
Outcomes from Candidate Business Model Questionnaire Analysis
• The value proposition needs to be clear and of significant value to justify the expense of offering a Grid service. – The target market needs to clearly understand the value
proposition.
• Value-add is mainly based on the provision of service – using the definition that a “service” is work done for the
benefit of another party– as opposed to more commoditised resources such as
low-level computing
© British Telecommunications plc
• The greater the level of added value in the eyes of the customer, the greater the chances of success.
• There is considerably more customer value in application codes than CPU cycles alone– Application codes are a means of solving customers’
problems, and gives the customers clearest value.– Licensing of application codes and enforcement of
licensing terms is critical to achieving this value-add.
© British Telecommunications plc
Risk and Reward “Balance Sheet” Analysis
• Represent risks as liabilities and rewards quantified as assets on a balance sheet– Use standard business accounting practice– Identify business decision points– Identify value exchange and risks
• Risks and rewards should balance for– Service providers– Consumers– Third parties (application vendors, etc)
• Role of SLAs– Define commitments, rewards and penalties– Relate QoS to business risk and value– Support business decision processes
© British Telecommunications plc
Value Exchange
Value ofService
> Price >
Service Consumer
Service Provider
Cost ofResources
© British Telecommunications plc
Business Value Exchange: Use Cases
EventAssets Liabilities Comments
Cash Debtors Resources Ret profits Creditors Promises
Purchase
equipmentGain Incur
Spend to acquire resources. Zero sum: asset = cost
Agree
SLAGain
Gain/
LoseIncur
Incurs a promise – customer may agree pay a fee just for that
Provide
serviceGain
Lose
(used)Gain Reduce
Fulfils a promise using resources – customer normally agrees to pay
Breach
SLALose Lose Incur Reduce
Breaks a promise – provider may outsource or pay a penalty
Cancel
SLAGain
Gain/
LoseReduce
Cancels an outstanding promise –customer may pay a penalty
Provider
settlesLose Reduce
Zero sum: both sides agreed the price ahead of time
Customer
settlesGain Lose
Zero sum: both sides agreed the price ahead of time
Customer
defaultsLose Lose
Nasty, but it happens. This is why we need to check customer credit
Equipment
depreciatesLose
(unused)Lose
Remaining life of kit goes down whether or not it is used
Equipment maintenance Lose Lose
Costs money to maintain and operate equipment
FINANCIAL VALUE (X)
RESOURCE (Y)[ACQUISITION COST]
SERVICE (Z)[DELIVERY LIABILITY]
© British Telecommunications plc
Service Provider Risks
EventAssets Liabilities Comments
Cash Debtors Resources Ret profits Creditors Promises
Purchase
equipmentGain Incur
1).Risk of investing in kit that won’t be needed
Agree
SLAGain
Gain/
LoseIncur
2).Risk of committing/delivering service the customer won’t pay for
Provide
serviceGain
Lose
(used)Gain Reduce
Breach
SLALose Lose Incur Reduce
3) Risk of promising services that can’t be provided
Cancel
SLAGain
Gain/
LoseReduce
Provider
settlesLose Reduce
Customer
settlesGain Lose
4) Risk of committing resources the customer doesn’t actually use
Customer
defaultsLose Lose
Equipment
depreciatesLose
(unused)Lose
Equipment maintenance Lose Lose
5) Risk of failing to utilise resources without excessive management
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
© British Telecommunications plc
Business Models
The Story The Numbers
NextGRID Architecture
Confidentialinformation
Dynamic Orchestrators(discovery, workflow, invocation, etc)
ManagementSystemsand SLAs
Data-centricFunctionalSystems
DynamicTrust andSecurity
Base standards (http, wsdl, soap, naming,notification, addressing, policy, security…)
Higher valueBusinessmodels
Questionnaire
Tools
Businessmodelling
© British Telecommunications plc
Conclusions
• Cute technology has a small market place, end users need solutions to real world business problems and we need business models to address this need
• We propose a strategy to evaluate business models– Full articulation of the business model – questionnaire– Balance of risk and reward – spread sheet analysis– Simulation to validate performance– Finally deploy it for real
• Business models– may not work everywhere– there may be a first mover advantage– they are confidential
© British Telecommunications plc
Licensing Challenges in Flexible Computing Architectures
• Software market has some unique characteristics– The buyer gains ownership of nothing, only a right to use
under certain conditions.– High degree of lock-in
• Little market competition after a purchase• High cost of switching
– No secondary market in software• Reduced pressure on original sales
– Single source maintenance, confidential source code– Confidentiality clauses abound inhibiting free flow of
information on prices etc
© British Telecommunications plc
License Types
1. Perpetual license– One off payment– No maintenance included– Most preferred license by volume of licenses sold
2. Term license– Fixed term license (e.g. yearly)– Often includes maintenance element
3. Subscription license– Regular payments– Includes updates and some technical support
4. Appliance license– Linked to hardware supplied by the same vendor
© British Telecommunications plc
License Models ( Ovum)
• User based licensing– Concurrent or named user
• Role based licensing– Particularly applicable to business applications
• Software as a service
© British Telecommunications plc
Changing License Models
• Most popular enterprise model is up front license + maintenance
• Hosted model is increasingly popular based on subscription fee
• Usage based or run time pricing (software tools world)
• Software as a Service (SaaS) increasingly important
© British Telecommunications plc
Maintenance Fees –justify the value(Gartner + Forrester)
• Maintenance costs are a big issue– Rising steadily range from 17%(SAP) to 22%(Oracle) and
up to 30%– Customer effectively re-buys app every 4-5 years– Value of maintenance depends on customer need
• Maintenance costs will therefore be under pressure• Value proposition is access to future products
– High degree of customer lock in
• Key point- software as a service reduces/eliminates this as a separate cost
© British Telecommunications plc
Customers Still Find Licensing Overly Complex
January 2008 “Trends 2008: Applications Licensing And Pricing”
© British Telecommunications plc
Software Pricing Models: Key Messages (Ovum)• Hosting can generate as much revenue as license
sales– but there are fewer opportunities for consulting and
training– real losers from hosting could be system integrators not
software vendors
• Success depends on critical mass:– traditional license + maintenance model generates earlier
revenue but level off– subscription services grow more slowly but are more
resistant to levelling off
© British Telecommunications plc
• License based software always suffers a “mid life crisis”– “pay as you go disconnect” vendors expect more revenue– customers expect reduced costs– one of them must be wrong
• In mature sectors vendors can afford to discount license costs steeply
© British Telecommunications plc
Conclusions
• The application code provides the means to solve the customers’ problems and is a key component of tomorrow’s Grid, but:– Licensing remains a key barrier to full realisation of GRID
technologies– Lack of flexible licensing and a secondary market inhibits
potential business models
• Flexible software licensing that permits application codes to be offered as services is critical to the success of the Grid– Value must be made apparent for both the software
vendor and the end user
© British Telecommunications plc
Offices worldwide
Telecommunications services described are subject to availability and may be modified from time to time. Services and equipment are provided subject to British Telecommunications plc's respective standard conditions of contract. Nothing in this publication forms any part of any contract.
© British Telecommunications plc 2008 & partners of the NextGRID consortium
Thank you
© British Telecommunications plc
Trends 2006 ( Forrester )
• Enterprises a generally dissatisfied with vendor offerings– Enterprises reject named user models– Large corporates prefer site or volume licenses
• Biggest challenges with licensing models– Maintenance costs too high, too complex, too rigid,metric
miss-match, not aligned with business goals
• Interest in utility pricing models still low (single
percentages)• Improvements in shelfware management• User based pricing trumps usage based