Business in the move… …a 24 x 7 nightmare, or self defined heaven?

Peter Cochrane

ConceptLabs CA

Axiom

Move = Change

Technology, market, organiz(s)ational, operational,product, customer, location et al change/movementcan all be pronounced the same GRIEF!

The trick is to continually minimize the GRIEF

“Life isn't like a box of chocolates... …it's more like a jar of Jalapenos”

What you do today, might burn your ass tomorrow!!!

ITs all about $$$ - more for less - faster,

smaller - availability for all…

…empowering individuals and small groups

to change the face of commerce in ways we have never seen before!

From DIFY to DIY

Social insects do itWe build top down to create complex

things to complete simple tasks…

Mother Nature builds bottom up to create simple things in order to

complete complex tasks!

Observation

“Technology is that stuff that doesn’t quite work properly yet”

Douglas Adams

"Nothing is more difficult than to introduce a new

order. Because the innovator has for enemies all

those who have done well under the old conditions

and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well

under the new"

Nicolai Machiavelli, 1513 A.D.

Nothing much has changed….

Moore’s Wall

ThermionicTube

Transistor

IC1

IC2

IC3

IC4

IC5

ICn

1915 46 59 2010 2025

3D ICsMolecularQuantumGeneticBiologicalOptical Computing

NewSensorsNetworksSoftwareLifeformsIntelligences

Log Scale

Faster & Faster Wealth Generation

0102030405060708090

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

New

Com

pan

y V

alu

e

US$Bn

PCInternet

Year

Mobile

Business

TechnologyPeople

HotSpot

Where the action always is!

Echo- System

Change takes time…

Mobile phones > Fixed line = 12 yearsDigital Fax > Analogue Fax = 8 yearsColour TV > B&W TV = 11 yearsCD > Audio Tape = 9 yearsDVD > VHS Tape = 7 yearsDigital Nets > Analogue Nets = 15 yearsOptical Fibre > Copper + Microwave = 20 years

Society Companies Consumers Technologies

4020

101

Change

Time

Years

Energy and time expended…

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Idea Science Technology Engineering

FinanceManagementMarketingSalesDeliverySupport

Evolution of the “Ideal State”

Business PlanManufacturing

ProductDevelopment

Technology/Engineering

Control

FundabilityCash

Board of Directors

Team

CEO

Sales

MarketingStage III.Product Development

Stage II.Seed

Stage I.Concept

Stage IV.Market Development

EU + UK Office Facts

EU ~ 81% of all staff have at least 1 day out of the office

UK ~ 30% of all staff don’t have an office

EU ~ 20% are now home workers

In the near future… Information to knowledge

People will either be able to cope with IT to manage and interface with information and knowledge…

… or they will be asking if you would like ketchup with your fries!

USA Creative class 1900-1999

* Richard Florida, The Rise of the Creative Class, Basic Books, 2002 (Figure 4.1, p. 73)

19911900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1999

6o

10

50

40

30

20

X X XX

XX

X

X

X

XXService Class

Creative Class

Working Class

SuperCreatives

Agriculture

Millions

From information to knowledge

People will either be able to cope with IT…

…to manage and interface with information and knowledge…

… or they will be asking: would you like ketchup with your fries!

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are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

More of the same… …but better?

watch

Phone

Game Console

GPS Device

Television

Walkie-Talkie

Rolodex

FM Radio

Camcorder

Camera

PDA

Pager

PortableMP3/Video

PC

What is All This Garbage?Let’s converge into one device

Or feature death…doing everythingbadly?

Traditionalfull time people

Virtualcore management & project team

Virtual Hybrid people + machines

People-less machines only

Companies areevolving toward zero people!

Chaos is the norm

Universe, galaxies, planetary systemsWeather systemsGeological actionLife in all its formsSocietiesPeopleNetworks & SystemsCompanies & Markets

Human stupidity…. …almost certainly fractal!

If only it was all this simple...

Markets

Va

riab

les

Sources of return

Industry Dimensions

Competition

Regulation

Globalization

Segmentation

CustomersTechnology

Convergence

Organisation

Strategy

Social

Economic

PoliticalEcological

So, what do we do?

•Get it wrong and kill the company

•Have a lucky break and get it right

•Focus, stick to the knitting, streamlineoperations, take out all the dead wood……and ultimately we…

… outsource it to someone else!

A new worker divide!

IT Knowledge

$ $

The new creators of wealth??

A new breed of employee

Unaware

Unable

Timid - Dependent

Follower

Spectator

Aware

Capable

Independent & Adventurous

Leader

Player

Old (mindset/body/company?) Young

100% Support Required 0%

Prediction

Company IT Departments will go the same way as the typing pool…

…young people are strictly DIY & not DIFM

Thank you,

cochrane.org.ukconceptlabs.net

A world that never sleeps…..