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8/9/2019 Burson-Marsteller Election Perspectives Lowres
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A wider communications perspective
www.burson-marsteller.co.uk
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Burson-MarstellersElection Perspectives
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Table of
Contents
Foreword 3
Expect the unexpected 4
Britain in the EU in apost-election world 6
Election factoids 8
Seats to watch 10
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The one certain outcomefrom this election willbe the creation of a new
f h
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Foreword
Firstly Id like to welcome you to tonights
event I hope you enjoy the evening, the
panel discussion and the debate itself.
To accompany the event weve produced a
Burson-Marsteller Election Brochure which
includes perspectives and viewpoints from
political strategists and experts in the field
including US election strategist and B-M CEO
M k P d f T MP d C
And to help you navigate the complexities of the
new Parliament, Burson-Marsteller is offering
your business a bespoke Political Healthcheck.
Our expert team will be happy to sit down
with you and talk through the challenges and
opportunities the new Parliament could present
your business and plan your strategy for success.
If you are interested in learning more about the
P liti l H lth h k d h it ld h l
Matt CarterCEO, Burson-Marsteller UK
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By contrast, the Conservative campaign has
moved from supreme confidence to nervous
jitters, and from looking a certainty for office
back in 2009, they are now fighting hard to winany majority at all.
And Labour has moved from being almost neck
and neck with the Tories at the beginning of the
campaign to trailing both the other parties in
third place a position which if repeated in
the actual election would surely mark theend of Gordon Browns Premiership.
The campaign itself has in many ways become
more centralised with a greater focus on
national events like the Leaders Debates and
fewer leaders visits around the country but
the election itself is going to be won and lost
in lots of local battles, many of which will be
decided by only a handful of votes.
And contrary to the traditional wisdom that the
incumbency effect means sitting MPs start with
an inbuilt advantage, the negative coverage of
the expenses scandal and the massive number
Mark PennCEO, Burson-Marsteller worldwide
Expect the
unexpected The 2010UK Election
Campaign
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For me, in this debate Brown has to finally
show his vision for the future. Hes known
as Mr Policy but just standing on his solid
handling of the economic crisis in the pastisnt enough for an electorate who want to
know what their future government will
do for them.
Cameron needs to finally connect with the
change British people want in a way that
he hasnt been able to so far. As a typicalfront-runner, Cameron was caught out by
playing it cautious early on in the campaign.
Continuing on that path is not a luxury he
can any longer afford he has to come out
fighting again as he did last week.
And for Clegg, the dramatic rise in his
standing has brought with it its own
challenges in greater scrutiny and examination
of the Lib Dems and their policies, which
judging from last weeks performance may
just be starting to eat into his new-found
support. Many a Presidential candidate in the
h h d h f h d b
This has been an electionthat has put parties on a
state of permanent crisisand left the traditionalcampaign playbookin tatters.
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Britains place in the European Union hasbeen a hot political issue since the UK joined
election debate started with a question on
Europe the issue didnt dominate the debate
Britain in the
EU in a post-election world
Jeremy GalbraithCEO, Burson-Marsteller Europe,Middle East and Africa
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since 1975. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems manifesto is
very pro-European (unlike their opponents, they
David Cameron plans to repatriate powers from
the EU notably on social policy, working time
and justice and home affairs. He repeated this
commitment during the leaders debate lastweek. But this will not be as easy as he makes
it sound. This would require support from other
EU member states and no government has
pledged to help. Politically, there would be little
appetite from either Nicolas Sarkozy or Angela
Merkel to ride to Mr Camerons rescue (they are
still irked by his decision to take his MEPs out ofthe centre-right EPP group in the European
Parliament last year a pledge that had helped
him win the Tory leadership in 2005). Other EU
countries may complain about social dumping
if rules do not apply uniformly (and therefore
make Britain an easier place to employ people
than other member states). The UK can alreadyopt-out of justice issues but if it does so, it risks
losing tools that it finds useful, like the Europe-
wide arrest warrant, or a common approach to
asylum policy.
The Tories also plan a sovereignty act to highlight
Despite a heavilyeurosceptic publicthere is little evidencethat Europe is an issue
that determinessignificant numbersof votes at generalelections
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Election factoids
A post-war record of 147 MPs have stood down
at the 2010 Election. The tally (at the dissolution
of Parliament on 12th April 2010) surpasses the
116 MPs who stepped down in 1997, and the 128retirements in 1945. In addition three seats were
vacant on the 12th, where the sitting MP has died
or resigned and no by-election had been held.
At the General Election, the UK will gain four
extra constituencies, all in England, raising the
total number to 650, from 646 in 2005. Boundary
changes affecting more than 500 constituencies
in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are
coming into force.
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The smallest majority, of 37, is being defended by
Labour in the seat of Crawley, where incumbentMP Laura Moffat has stood down.
Britains youngest MP in the last Parliament
was former management consultant for
Deloitte, Conservative Chloe Smith. At 27, she
was elected in a July 2009 by-election triggered
by the resignation of the Labour MP Ian Gibson.
At the end of the 2009-10 session the oldest MPwas the Rt Hon Ian Paisley, MP for North Antrim,
born on 6 April 1926. He has now stood down.
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Arfon
A new constituency following boundary
changes, Plaid Cymru are primed to take
advantage here.
Barking
BNP Leader Nick Griffin hopes to
improve upon the partys third place
in 2005 and unseat Tourism Minister
Margaret Hodge.
Brent Central
Boundary changes pit two MPs against
each other: Labours Dawn Butler and
the Lib Dems Sarah Teather.
Ceredigion
A seat that rarely sees Labour or the
Hampstead and Kilburn
Labour MP Glenda Jackson is battling to
retain her seat. Boundary changes have
cut her majority, boosting Lib Dem andTory chances.
Newcastle East and Wallsend
Government Chief Whip Nick Brown
faces a Lib Dem challenge for his seat.
Norwich South
Former Secretary of State Charles Clarke
is under pressure from the Lib Dems.
Ochil and South Perthshire
The SNP look to gain a key seat
from Labour.
Seats to
watch
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EdinburghGlasgow
Newcastle upon Tyne
9
711
3
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Where were you when...?
Brighton Pavilion
This seat offers a real chance for Green
Party leader Caroline Lucas to gain the first
seat for her party at Westminster. Brighton
Pavilion is a bohemian, progressive area
surrounded by more conventional suburbs
and Lucas offers an appealing manifesto
to the liberal electorate here.
Buckingham
The seat of the Speaker should by
convention remain unchallenged and John
Luton South
Normally considered a Labour stronghold,
incumbent MP Margaret Moran has been
under fire in the media and is standing
down. This seat has been the target of
some independents, including Esther
Rantzen. However they may succeed in
splitting the vote in Labours favour, rather
than posing a serious challenge.
Morley and Outwood
Morley and Outwood is a newly created
This election could throw up all sorts of
surprises and here we take a look at some of
the seats with the potential to make history.
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Electoral swings compare the results of two
elections in the same area. They are often
used to analyse the performance of parties
over time, or in one election across different
electoral areas.
To calculate swing: add the rise in one partysshare in the vote to the fall in the second partys
share of the vote. Divide your figure by two.
The resulting figure is the swing.
Swing can be measured between each of the
political parties. However most of the focus
Election 2010 - What thekey swings would mean:
1.6% swing against LabourThis is the uniform national swing needed for
Labour to lose their overall majority. This means
that there would be a hung parliament.
2.5% swing against LabourThis is the uniform national swing needed
for the Liberal Democrats to hold the balance
Swingometer
How to calculatethe result
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The balance
of power
Some voters may well say Parliament
should be hung but that view probably
reflects the expenses scandal rather
than the political make-up!
The combined impact of revelations about MPs
Gavin GrantChairman, Burson-Marsteller UK
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Callaghans majority vanished and the
Parliament was hung again. Callaghan was
successful in his negotiations with the new
Liberal Leader, David Steel and the Lib/Lab
pact was born. The pact died in the winter
of discontent when Margaret Thatcher was
swept to power on the back of the first,
modern communications campaign.
Britain approached a hung parliament in the
.
Margaret Thatchers andTony Blairs landslides maska dramatic shift in the UKspolitical landscape that
makes hung parliamentsmore likely.
What happens if ahung parliament arrives
on May 7th?
Several factors define the options:
Protocol countsAs outgoing PM, Gordon Brown will be
asked if he can form a government. Only
if he says no does the Leader of theOpposition get a chance.
Can two tango?Nick Clegg will be hoping that if there
isnt a clear winner, that he is in a position
to do a deal with either of the main
parties. If that can only happen with oneit weakens Cleggs negotiating position.
Is three a crowd?Maybe adding the Liberal Democrats
alone is not enough. Thats dream time
for the Nationalists!
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On the morning of May 7th we will be
waking up to one of three scenarios the
same Government, a Cameron Government
or a hung Parliament. Throughout the
campaign, the latter two options have
seemed the more likely outcomes. So let
since the war to win outright still remains
high, in which case David Cameron will be
presiding over a parliament with a huge
number of new MPs.
A Cameron
Government?
Andrew MacKayFormer Conservative MP and nowSenior Adviser, Burson-Marsteller UK
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About
Burson-Marsteller
Burson-Marsteller is a leading global
public relations and public affairs firm
whose knowledge, strategic insightsand innovative programs help drive
strong corporate and brand reputations
for its clients. In Europe, Middle East
and Africa our network provides clients
with the ultimate offer in public
Burson-Marsteller applies deep, local knowledge
in a global context. We create compelling,
campaign orientated ideas that communicate
our clients vision and bring their corporatepersonalities to life.
Research and innovation underpins all that
we do. Burson-Marstellers unique sources of
business and political intelligence guide our
client brand decisions. Our CEO and corporate
Our work
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Change & Organisational Performance
Driving high performance organisations through
internal communications and change management
programmes
Corporate Communications
Corporate branding, building CEO reputation and
financial communications
Corporate Responsibility
Media Relations
Access to the key influential media across Europe
and the latest and most effective tools and
practices for working with both traditional andnew media, media training and media monitoring
PSB
Corporate research and polling providing evidence-
based strategic communications advice
Practices
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Contact
Matt Carter, Chief Executive
Burson-Marsteller
24-28 Bloomsbury Way
London WC1A 2PX
Telephone: +44 (0)20 7300 6234
Email: [email protected]
www.bursonmarsteller.co.uk
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