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    A wider communications perspective

    www.burson-marsteller.co.uk

    Change & Organisational Performance Corporate Communications Corporate Responsibility Crisis Design, Digital & Brands

    Energy, Environment and Climate Change Healthcare Media Relations PSB Public Aairs Technology Training

    Burson-MarstellersElection Perspectives

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    Table of

    Contents

    Foreword 3

    Expect the unexpected 4

    Britain in the EU in apost-election world 6

    Election factoids 8

    Seats to watch 10

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    The one certain outcomefrom this election willbe the creation of a new

    f h

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    Foreword

    Firstly Id like to welcome you to tonights

    event I hope you enjoy the evening, the

    panel discussion and the debate itself.

    To accompany the event weve produced a

    Burson-Marsteller Election Brochure which

    includes perspectives and viewpoints from

    political strategists and experts in the field

    including US election strategist and B-M CEO

    M k P d f T MP d C

    And to help you navigate the complexities of the

    new Parliament, Burson-Marsteller is offering

    your business a bespoke Political Healthcheck.

    Our expert team will be happy to sit down

    with you and talk through the challenges and

    opportunities the new Parliament could present

    your business and plan your strategy for success.

    If you are interested in learning more about the

    P liti l H lth h k d h it ld h l

    Matt CarterCEO, Burson-Marsteller UK

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    By contrast, the Conservative campaign has

    moved from supreme confidence to nervous

    jitters, and from looking a certainty for office

    back in 2009, they are now fighting hard to winany majority at all.

    And Labour has moved from being almost neck

    and neck with the Tories at the beginning of the

    campaign to trailing both the other parties in

    third place a position which if repeated in

    the actual election would surely mark theend of Gordon Browns Premiership.

    The campaign itself has in many ways become

    more centralised with a greater focus on

    national events like the Leaders Debates and

    fewer leaders visits around the country but

    the election itself is going to be won and lost

    in lots of local battles, many of which will be

    decided by only a handful of votes.

    And contrary to the traditional wisdom that the

    incumbency effect means sitting MPs start with

    an inbuilt advantage, the negative coverage of

    the expenses scandal and the massive number

    Mark PennCEO, Burson-Marsteller worldwide

    Expect the

    unexpected The 2010UK Election

    Campaign

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    For me, in this debate Brown has to finally

    show his vision for the future. Hes known

    as Mr Policy but just standing on his solid

    handling of the economic crisis in the pastisnt enough for an electorate who want to

    know what their future government will

    do for them.

    Cameron needs to finally connect with the

    change British people want in a way that

    he hasnt been able to so far. As a typicalfront-runner, Cameron was caught out by

    playing it cautious early on in the campaign.

    Continuing on that path is not a luxury he

    can any longer afford he has to come out

    fighting again as he did last week.

    And for Clegg, the dramatic rise in his

    standing has brought with it its own

    challenges in greater scrutiny and examination

    of the Lib Dems and their policies, which

    judging from last weeks performance may

    just be starting to eat into his new-found

    support. Many a Presidential candidate in the

    h h d h f h d b

    This has been an electionthat has put parties on a

    state of permanent crisisand left the traditionalcampaign playbookin tatters.

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    Britains place in the European Union hasbeen a hot political issue since the UK joined

    election debate started with a question on

    Europe the issue didnt dominate the debate

    Britain in the

    EU in a post-election world

    Jeremy GalbraithCEO, Burson-Marsteller Europe,Middle East and Africa

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    since 1975. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems manifesto is

    very pro-European (unlike their opponents, they

    David Cameron plans to repatriate powers from

    the EU notably on social policy, working time

    and justice and home affairs. He repeated this

    commitment during the leaders debate lastweek. But this will not be as easy as he makes

    it sound. This would require support from other

    EU member states and no government has

    pledged to help. Politically, there would be little

    appetite from either Nicolas Sarkozy or Angela

    Merkel to ride to Mr Camerons rescue (they are

    still irked by his decision to take his MEPs out ofthe centre-right EPP group in the European

    Parliament last year a pledge that had helped

    him win the Tory leadership in 2005). Other EU

    countries may complain about social dumping

    if rules do not apply uniformly (and therefore

    make Britain an easier place to employ people

    than other member states). The UK can alreadyopt-out of justice issues but if it does so, it risks

    losing tools that it finds useful, like the Europe-

    wide arrest warrant, or a common approach to

    asylum policy.

    The Tories also plan a sovereignty act to highlight

    Despite a heavilyeurosceptic publicthere is little evidencethat Europe is an issue

    that determinessignificant numbersof votes at generalelections

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    Election factoids

    A post-war record of 147 MPs have stood down

    at the 2010 Election. The tally (at the dissolution

    of Parliament on 12th April 2010) surpasses the

    116 MPs who stepped down in 1997, and the 128retirements in 1945. In addition three seats were

    vacant on the 12th, where the sitting MP has died

    or resigned and no by-election had been held.

    At the General Election, the UK will gain four

    extra constituencies, all in England, raising the

    total number to 650, from 646 in 2005. Boundary

    changes affecting more than 500 constituencies

    in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are

    coming into force.

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    The smallest majority, of 37, is being defended by

    Labour in the seat of Crawley, where incumbentMP Laura Moffat has stood down.

    Britains youngest MP in the last Parliament

    was former management consultant for

    Deloitte, Conservative Chloe Smith. At 27, she

    was elected in a July 2009 by-election triggered

    by the resignation of the Labour MP Ian Gibson.

    At the end of the 2009-10 session the oldest MPwas the Rt Hon Ian Paisley, MP for North Antrim,

    born on 6 April 1926. He has now stood down.

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    Arfon

    A new constituency following boundary

    changes, Plaid Cymru are primed to take

    advantage here.

    Barking

    BNP Leader Nick Griffin hopes to

    improve upon the partys third place

    in 2005 and unseat Tourism Minister

    Margaret Hodge.

    Brent Central

    Boundary changes pit two MPs against

    each other: Labours Dawn Butler and

    the Lib Dems Sarah Teather.

    Ceredigion

    A seat that rarely sees Labour or the

    Hampstead and Kilburn

    Labour MP Glenda Jackson is battling to

    retain her seat. Boundary changes have

    cut her majority, boosting Lib Dem andTory chances.

    Newcastle East and Wallsend

    Government Chief Whip Nick Brown

    faces a Lib Dem challenge for his seat.

    Norwich South

    Former Secretary of State Charles Clarke

    is under pressure from the Lib Dems.

    Ochil and South Perthshire

    The SNP look to gain a key seat

    from Labour.

    Seats to

    watch

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    EdinburghGlasgow

    Newcastle upon Tyne

    9

    711

    3

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    Where were you when...?

    Brighton Pavilion

    This seat offers a real chance for Green

    Party leader Caroline Lucas to gain the first

    seat for her party at Westminster. Brighton

    Pavilion is a bohemian, progressive area

    surrounded by more conventional suburbs

    and Lucas offers an appealing manifesto

    to the liberal electorate here.

    Buckingham

    The seat of the Speaker should by

    convention remain unchallenged and John

    Luton South

    Normally considered a Labour stronghold,

    incumbent MP Margaret Moran has been

    under fire in the media and is standing

    down. This seat has been the target of

    some independents, including Esther

    Rantzen. However they may succeed in

    splitting the vote in Labours favour, rather

    than posing a serious challenge.

    Morley and Outwood

    Morley and Outwood is a newly created

    This election could throw up all sorts of

    surprises and here we take a look at some of

    the seats with the potential to make history.

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    Electoral swings compare the results of two

    elections in the same area. They are often

    used to analyse the performance of parties

    over time, or in one election across different

    electoral areas.

    To calculate swing: add the rise in one partysshare in the vote to the fall in the second partys

    share of the vote. Divide your figure by two.

    The resulting figure is the swing.

    Swing can be measured between each of the

    political parties. However most of the focus

    Election 2010 - What thekey swings would mean:

    1.6% swing against LabourThis is the uniform national swing needed for

    Labour to lose their overall majority. This means

    that there would be a hung parliament.

    2.5% swing against LabourThis is the uniform national swing needed

    for the Liberal Democrats to hold the balance

    Swingometer

    How to calculatethe result

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    The balance

    of power

    Some voters may well say Parliament

    should be hung but that view probably

    reflects the expenses scandal rather

    than the political make-up!

    The combined impact of revelations about MPs

    Gavin GrantChairman, Burson-Marsteller UK

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    Callaghans majority vanished and the

    Parliament was hung again. Callaghan was

    successful in his negotiations with the new

    Liberal Leader, David Steel and the Lib/Lab

    pact was born. The pact died in the winter

    of discontent when Margaret Thatcher was

    swept to power on the back of the first,

    modern communications campaign.

    Britain approached a hung parliament in the

    .

    Margaret Thatchers andTony Blairs landslides maska dramatic shift in the UKspolitical landscape that

    makes hung parliamentsmore likely.

    What happens if ahung parliament arrives

    on May 7th?

    Several factors define the options:

    Protocol countsAs outgoing PM, Gordon Brown will be

    asked if he can form a government. Only

    if he says no does the Leader of theOpposition get a chance.

    Can two tango?Nick Clegg will be hoping that if there

    isnt a clear winner, that he is in a position

    to do a deal with either of the main

    parties. If that can only happen with oneit weakens Cleggs negotiating position.

    Is three a crowd?Maybe adding the Liberal Democrats

    alone is not enough. Thats dream time

    for the Nationalists!

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    On the morning of May 7th we will be

    waking up to one of three scenarios the

    same Government, a Cameron Government

    or a hung Parliament. Throughout the

    campaign, the latter two options have

    seemed the more likely outcomes. So let

    since the war to win outright still remains

    high, in which case David Cameron will be

    presiding over a parliament with a huge

    number of new MPs.

    A Cameron

    Government?

    Andrew MacKayFormer Conservative MP and nowSenior Adviser, Burson-Marsteller UK

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    About

    Burson-Marsteller

    Burson-Marsteller is a leading global

    public relations and public affairs firm

    whose knowledge, strategic insightsand innovative programs help drive

    strong corporate and brand reputations

    for its clients. In Europe, Middle East

    and Africa our network provides clients

    with the ultimate offer in public

    Burson-Marsteller applies deep, local knowledge

    in a global context. We create compelling,

    campaign orientated ideas that communicate

    our clients vision and bring their corporatepersonalities to life.

    Research and innovation underpins all that

    we do. Burson-Marstellers unique sources of

    business and political intelligence guide our

    client brand decisions. Our CEO and corporate

    Our work

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    Change & Organisational Performance

    Driving high performance organisations through

    internal communications and change management

    programmes

    Corporate Communications

    Corporate branding, building CEO reputation and

    financial communications

    Corporate Responsibility

    Media Relations

    Access to the key influential media across Europe

    and the latest and most effective tools and

    practices for working with both traditional andnew media, media training and media monitoring

    PSB

    Corporate research and polling providing evidence-

    based strategic communications advice

    Practices

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    Contact

    Matt Carter, Chief Executive

    Burson-Marsteller

    24-28 Bloomsbury Way

    London WC1A 2PX

    Telephone: +44 (0)20 7300 6234

    Email: [email protected]

    www.bursonmarsteller.co.uk

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