Burning Economic Issues

• US economy declared to be in a technical recession since February –NBER

• Brent climbs to the highest level since March ($41.08pb)

• Nigeria to pay for cheating with deeper output cuts - OPEC

• External reserves slips to $36.55bn & Naira under pressure

• Confirmed Covid cases rise to 12,801 and Kano fatality rate in question

• Average turnover at I & E window down to $57.65mn per week from 2019’s average of

$262.61mn

Impact The GoodiesThe Downers

• Brent above $40pb

• COVID-19 fatality rate:

2.82% of infections

• Stock market rallies again

• Nigeria to make up for excess oil production

(200,000barrels) with extra cuts in June/July

• Power output below 4,000MWh/hour

• External reserves now $36.55bn

• Importers only getting 10% of their forex

demand

Power SectorJune 7th

• Average power output: 3,582MWH/hr (down 271.1MWH/hr)

• Gas constraints stood at 2,381.5MWh/hr, Grid constraint was 687.7MWh/hr and

water constraint was 280MWh/hr

• Naira equivalent of power loss: N1.79billion (annualized at N655.14billion)

State Temperature(noon-time)

Abuja 320C

Kano 370C

Lagos 310C

Domestic Commodities Price Movement

Commodities Current Prices

PreviousMonth Prices

Directional Change

1-Year Low 1-Year High

Palm Oil (25l) N10,000 N10,000 N9,000 N10,000

Semovita (10kg) N3,400 N3,400 N2,800 N3,400

New Yam (medium size) N1,500 N1,200 N400 N1,900

Sugar (50kg) N21,000 N23,000 N13,000 N23,000

Relatively Elastic Products

• Commodity prices up again

• Price discrimination across markets :

• Higher prices in Lagos & Sura (approx. 12% higher than Lagos Mainland)

• Lower prices in Oyingbo & Agege

• Market days now changed to Tuesday, Thursday & Saturday

Domestic Commodities Price Movement

Commodities Current Prices

PreviousMonth Prices

Directional Change

1-Year Low 1-Year High

Garri (50kg) Yellow N13,000 N14,500 N6,150 N14,500

Rice (50kg) N28,000 N27,000 N14,000 N27,500

Flour (50kg) N12,700 N11,000 N10,000 N12,700

Beans (Oloyin)(50kg) N17,000 N17,000 N14,000 N25,500

Cement (50kg) N2,600 N2,600 N1,600 N2,700

Tomatoes (50kg) N12,000 N9,000 N6,000 N20,000

Pepper (bag) N13,000 N10,000 N5,000 N15,000

Relatively Inelastic Products

Street price

N100

N300

N350

Goods

Bread Loaf

Pepsi (50cl)

Heineken beer (60cl)

Indomie (1 carton)

Supermarket price

N100

N330

N400

N2,300

% difference

0%

-15.0%

-12.5%

-10.00%

Gala (big size) N100 N100 0%

N2,000

Consumer Goods – Current price

Stock Market

SharePrices

(N)

Daily % Change(June 5th – June 8th )

YTD (% Change)

Nestle 995 - 32.31

Honeywell 0.98 3.92 1.01

Flour Mills 21.00 0.72 6.60

Cadbury 7.65 - 27.49

Dangote Sugar

14.55 2.68 6.99

Unilever 17.00 - 22.73

Ikeja Hotels 1.15 - 2.68

• NSE ASI 0.93% to 25,249.90pts on June 8th

• Consumer goods sub index: 0.04% at 426.24pts

BRENT

WTI

NATURAL GAS

COMMODITY

0.69%

0.94%

1.84%

DAILY CHANGEJune 5th – June 8th

37.76%

36.87%

16.89%

YTDCURRENT

PRICE

$41.08pb

$38.55pb

$1.82MMBtu

Oil Markets Today

Oil Prices

• Brent up 0.69% to $41.08pb

• WTI up 0.94% to $38.55pb

• As OPEC+ agrees to extend output cuts till July

• Four countries – Iraq, Nigeria, Angola and Kazakhstan – held to account for non

compliance

• Increased demand also keeping prices elevated

GraphicDesign

Wheat Corn Cocoa Sugar

• Cocoa prices rose by 0.29% to $2,384/mt• On expectations of reduced output from Ivory Coast and Ghana

• Sugar prices up 0.50% to $12.15/pound

• Despite increased Brazil exports

• Corn up by 0.68% to $333.50/bushel• As higher oil prices boosted hopes for ethanol demand

• Wheat prices down 0.78% to $511.25/bushel• As favourable weather conditions bring respite for EU harvest

Agricultural Commodities

• Brent forecast in a $40-$42pb range in June

• 10% lower output by OPEC+ and higher inventories in the

US

OUTLOOK – Oil Prices

GRAINS

SOFTS Sugar

• Increased global supply to push prices down

Cocoa

• Supply shortages from key producing countries to keep

prices up

OUTLOOK – Agricultural Prices

• Favourable weather conditions to depress wheat prices