Burden of disease from rising coal emissions in Thailand

Shannon Koplitz1, Daniel Jacob1, Lauri Myllyvirta2, Melissa Sulprizio1

1Harvard University2Greenpeace International

Coal emissions are harmful to human health

SO2 and NOx from power plants oxidize in the atmosphere to form particulate matter (PM). NOx can also increase ozone concentrations. Both PM and ozone lead to premature mortality in people.

SO2

NOx

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5)

Ozone (O3)Image sources: cliparts.co; www.envpl.ipb.ac.rs; Jupiterimages Corporation; www.intechopen.com/source/html/42164/media/image4.png

Respiratory and cardiovascular disease

Coal emissions declining in the U.S. due to public health concern

Coal emissions in many Asian countries are currently following the same upwards trajectory that has taken decades to reverse in the U.S. and Europe.

Klimont et al., 2013

Difference in SO2 emissions (2010 – 2005)

Coal use is expanding rapidly in Southeast Asia

There are currently more than 400 coal plants scheduled for development in Asia outside China and India. Many of these plants are already under construction.

Sources: Platts WEPP Database, Coalswarm.org

Operating

Projected

Coal power plant locations by 2030

1. Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia (excluding emissions from China and India).

2. Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution.

Project Objectives

Approach

1. Attribute changes in PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day (2011) and projected 2030 coal emissions using GEOS-Chem

2. Apply concentration-response relationships from the literature (Krewski et al., 2009; Anenberg et al., 2010) to estimate the premature mortality due to coal-related pollution.

Power plant emissions vary widely by facility

Plant specific factors such as the grade of coal being combusted or the emission control technologies in place affect the magnitude and type of emissions coming from each individual coal fired power plant.

Type of coal

Emission control technologiesBoiler type

Images: Ciris Energy; AECOM Process Technologies; dieselnet.com; energy-models.com/boilers

Flue gas desulferization (SO2)

Selective catalytic reduction (NOx)

Fluidized Bed Combustion (FBC)

Stoker

We develop a detailed inventory of the currently operating fleet

Japan

S. Korea

Taiwan

Philippines

VietnamMyanmar

Malaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

China India U.S. Countries in this work

Tg

yr-1

Coal SO2 Emissions(Present Day ~2011)

Lu et al., 2011; EPA Annual ARP report 2013

Emissions of SO2 and NOx from coal plants are currently highest in Indonesia, followed by Thailand and Japan.

Coal emissions likely to surpass U.S. levels by 2030

If all projected plants become operational, Asian coal emissions of SO2 and NOx could triple by 2030. Emissions in Thailand are projected to increase by 40%.

Japan

S. Korea

Taiwan

Philippines

VietnamMyanmar

Malaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

China India U.S. Countries in this work

Tg

yr-1

Lu et al., 2011; EPA Annual ARP report 2013

Coal SO2 Emissions

Increase by 2030

2011

GEOS-Chem simulates the concentrations of pollutants

GEOS-Chem is a global 3-D chemical transport model used by many research groups around the world to advance our understanding of atmospheric composition and to answer policy relevant questions pertaining to air quality and climate change.

Global 3-D CTM

Emission inventories

Assimilated meteorology

Pollutant concentrations

1. Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia (excluding emissions from China and India).

2. Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution.

Project Objectives

Approach

1. Attribute changes in PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day (2011) and projected 2030 coal emissions using GEOS-Chem

2. Apply concentration-response relationships from the literature (Krewski et al., 2009; Anenberg et al., 2010) to estimate the premature mortality due to coal-related pollution.

Coal pollution correlates with populated areas

PM2.5 enhancements are highest near Bangkok and Chiang Mai. Ozone enhancements exceed 1 ppb over much of Thailand and neighboring countries.

ΔPM2.5 from 2030 Thailand Coal

μg m-3

ΔOzone from 2030 Thailand Coal

ppb

1. Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia (excluding emissions from China and India).

2. Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution.

Project Objectives

Approach

1. Attribute changes in PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day (2011) and projected 2030 coal emissions using GEOS-Chem

2. Apply concentration-response relationships from the literature (Krewski et al., 2009; Anenberg et al., 2010) to estimate the premature mortality due to coal-related pollution.

Exposure depends on both pollution levels and population density

By 2030, we estimate 3080 excess deaths from PM2.5 and 110 excess deaths from ozone in Thailand due to coal emissions.

2010 Population Map

population

ΔPM2.5 from 2030 Thailand Coal

μg m-3

Total Exposure in 2030 (ΔPM2.5 x Population)

Summary

• Coal fired power plant emissions of SO2 and NOx form particulate matter and ozone which are detrimental to human health.

• Without abatement, these projected emissions could lead to more than 3,000 excess deaths in Thailand every year.

Please email skoplitz@fas.harvard.edu for more information about this work. Thank you for listening!