Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (18th – 22nd April ‘11)

8/7/2019 Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (18th – 22nd April ‘11)

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Weekly Report

Commodity

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W E E K L Y

PRECIOUS METALS RISES

ON DOLLAR WEAKNESS!

Globa l Resear ch L im i t ed

1 8 t h A p r i l - 2 3 r d A p r i l 2 0 1 1



2 | www.capitalvia.com

Economic Data

7:30pm

8:00pm

10:00pm

NAHB Housing Market Index

FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

USD

USD

USD

6:00pm

6:00pm

Building Permits

Housing Starts

USD

USD

Tue

Apr 190.48M0.53M

398K

37.2

0.3%

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

MonApr 18

7:30pm

8:00pm

Existing Home Sales

Crude Oil Inventories

USD

USD

Wed

Apr 20

6:00pm

7:30pm

7:30pm

7:30pm

8:00pm

Unemployment Claims

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

CB Leading Index m/m

OFHEO HPI m/m

Natural Gas Storage

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

Thu

Apr 21412K

43.4

0.8%

Weekly Report

Commodity 1 8 t h A p r i l - 2 3 r d A p r i l 2 0 1 1

CAPITALVIA GLOBAL RESEARCH LIMITED

17 17

0.55M 0.52M

5.07M 4.88M

1.6M

0.2% -0.3%

28B



Fundamental Market Overview


Gold rose 1 percent to a record and silver soared on Friday, as inflation worries amid a Crude oil rally and a downgrade of Ireland's sovereign debt

powered bullion toward its fifth consecutive weekly gain. Silver rose to its highest in 31 years on speculative buying and tight supplies, and as

data showing rising U.S. consumer prices prompted investors to buy precious metals. Silver's outperformance over bullion also sent the

Gold/silver ratio below 34 for the first time in nearly 30 years.

Spot Gold rose 0.8 percent to $1,484.10 , having hit a record $1,487.39. U.S. Gold futures for June delivery rose $12.40 to $1,484.80. Silver

gained 1 percent to $42.51. The Gold-to-silver ratio -- showing the relative strength between the two metals -- fell to its lowest since the early

1980s. The small rise in U.S. core inflation, and data showing moderation in long-term inflation expectations may be seen as vindication for Federal Reserve officials who have viewed the recent energy price spike as having a temporary effect. Gold prices have almost doubled since the

Fed cut interest rates to the bone in 2008 in an attempt to shock the economy back to life after the worst financial crisis since the Great

Depression. Gold also drew support from safe-haven bids on worries over the euro zone financial crisis, after more talk that Greece may be set to

restructure its debt and a Moody's downgrade of Ireland. Among other commodities, U.S. Crude oil rose for a third straight day, as improving

consumer confidence and industrial production boosted the outlook for oil demand. Gold largely ignored news Goldman Sachs had

recommended investors go underweight commodities over a three- to six-month horizon, echoing its call from Monday, saying oil prices were

higher than justified by current supply and demand

GOLD HITS RECORD, SILVER SURGES ON INFLATION FEAR

OIL RISES ON ROSIER US CONSUMER SENTIMENT, CHINA

Crude Oil rose on Friday, with Brent Crude surging past $123 a barrel, as improving U.S. consumer confidence and industrial production easedconcerns about rising fuel costs. Concerns about the impact of surging fuel on the economic recovery and consuption hit prices earlier in the

week, knocking Brent off 32-month highs. It had risen over $126 a barrel on expectations the conflict in Libya would lead to a prolonged

disruption of the OPEC nation's suppplies. A U.S. government report showed underlying inflation pressures remained contained in March, while a

survey showed April consumer sentiment rose more than expected. Investors have been concerned higher energy and food costs would slow

consumer spending. A gauge of manufacturing in economic powerhouse New York State rose in April to the highest level in a year and

employment improved, the New York Federal Reserve said Friday.

Oil prices have "pushed ahead" of supply and demand fundamentals and near-term downside risk has risen after prices climbed to "exceptionally

high levels," Goldman told clients in the latest note, while it maintained its outlook for rising oil prices over a longer, 12-month horizon, on

growing global fuel demand.

COPPER UNDER PRESSURE AS INFLATION RISES GLOBALLY

Copper closed almost flat on Friday, as the dollar pared gains and data showed improved U.S. consumer sentiment, but investors worried high

inflation in China would lead to monetary tightening and erode demand. Copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange (LME)

closed at $9,405 a tonne from Thursday's close of $9,410.

Chinese consumer price inflation sped to 5.4 percent in the year to March, the fastest since July 2008 and topping market forecasts for a 5.2

percent increase. Gross domestic product eased a touch in the world's top Copper buyer. "Growth is going to slow down quite significantly, it's

going to be very bumpy." Putting more pressure on metals prices, China's production of refined Copper and primary aluminium rose 23.7 percent

and 7.4 percent respectively from a year earlier in March, hitting monthly records for both metals on expanded capacity and sufficient supply of

raw materials.

Copper inventories at LME warehouses fell 375 tonnes to 450,425 tonnes, a small respite in an upward trend that has seen stocks of the metal used

in power and construction climb by a fifth so far this year.

Weekly Report





GOLD

COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold sustains on higher level and

closed near to its week high. In the coming week 1410$ will act as a major support inCOMEX Gold, if COMEX Gold sustains above 1450 $ an ounce then above 1485 $ an ounce

it can touch the level of 1505$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1430$ then it

can slightly correct and test the level of 1410$ an ounce.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above

1450$ an ounce, then above 1485$ it can test the level of 1505$ an ounce and above

1505$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses.

Strategy

SILVER

COMEX Silver is technically strong on charts. Last week COMEX Silver broke itspsychological level of 4200$ an ounce and closed above that. For the upcoming week

3900$ and 3750$ are the crucial supports and 4380$ and 4600 $ are crucial resistance in

COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 64500 and 67500 will act as major resistance and 59500 and

57500 will act as major supports.

Market Overview

Technically COMEX Silver is strong on charts, For the next week traders can use buy on

lower level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 4100$ an ounce, then above 4300$

an ounce it can further go upward and can test the level of 4380$ an ounce. Trade by

keeping the proper stop losses.

Strategy

1562 1518 1503 1474 1459 1430

R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

1386

Script

Levels

4805 4489 4375 4173 4059 3857


3541

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis


Weekly Report





CRUDE OIL

NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week in Crude oil neither sustain on higher level

nor at lower level. For the coming week 100$ will act as major support and 115 $ a barrel will be a major resistance. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found at 4875 and 4950 and

major supports will be 4600 and 4500.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains

above the level of 100 $ a barrel then above 115 $ it can slightly come up and touch the

level of 117.20 $ a barrel and in MCX above 4900 Crude oil can touch the level of 4960 if it

sustains above 4700. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

Strategy

COPPER

Copper is in an upward consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy onlower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was down for most part of week. If next week

COMEX Copper sustains above the level of 410 then above the level of 425 Copper can test

the level of 432. In MCX Copper above 420 Copper can test the level of 427 if it does not

break the level of 407 on the downside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 440 and 455 will act as major resistance and 415 and 400 will act as

major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 430 and 440

and supports would be found at 410 and 400.

Strategy

125.76 117.61 113.60 109.46 105.45 101.31


93.16

Script

Levels

494.10 464.00 444.70 434.00 414.65 403.90


373.90

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis


Weekly Report





NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buying on

lower levels. Last week Natural Gas was up for most part of the week. If next week NaturalGas sustains above the level of 4.000 $ then above the level of 4.265$ Natural Gas can test

the level of 4.365 $ and below 3.900$ Natural Gas can slightly go down and test the level of

3.810 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains above190 in the coming week then it can test the

level of 197, if it does not break the level of 177 on the downside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 3.650$ and 3.200 $ will act as major supports and 4.880$ and

5.200$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance

would be 207 and 220, supports would be found at 165 and 150.

Strategy

USD / INR

USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lowerlevels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.3000 then above the level of

44.6000 USD/INR can test the level of 44.8500 and below 43.8000 USD/INR can slightly go

down and test the level of 43.6000.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 43.8000 and 43.5000 will act as major supports and 45.4000 and

46.0000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

Strategy

4.699 4.428 4.325 4.157 4.054 3.886


3.615

Script

Levels

45.6330 44.9430 44.6070 44.2530 43.9170 43.5630


42.8730

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis


Weekly Report





WEEKLY GAINERS INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE WEEKLY

GOLD 1486.6 0.85

SILVER 4261 4.93

COPPER 425.5 -5.48

CRUDE 109.26 -3.13

NATURAL GAS 4.212 4.23

USD/INR 44.27 0.48

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Closing Price % Change

WEEKLY LOOSERS

NATURAL GAS 26 -APR-11 177.90 -8.66

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

Gold MCX 4-JUN -11 Gold Rs./ 10gm 21412 21390 2113721592 21571 130686 10659 3068325.79159

Silver MCX 5-MAY-11 Silver RS./ KG. 60483 60650 5888062840 62390 525161 13682 11762437.151907

Copper MCX 29-APR-11 Copper RS./ KG. 443.15 442 416443.5 417 453337 28590 2489111.13-26.15

Crude Oil MCX 19-APR-11 Crude Oil RS./ BBL. 5087 5050 47555063 4908 88130 6689 4206898.98-235

Natural Gas MCX 26-APR-11 Natural Gas RS./ MM BTU 177.9 178.3 178190.3 187.5 154976 11091 405740.899.1

Lead MCX 28-APR-11 Lead RS./ KG. 131.85 129.9 117.75130.85 119.5 106266 5693 763848.23-12.35

Zinc MCX 28-APR-11 Zinc RS./ KG. 113.4 113.25 105.65113.25 105.9 100770 8618 656058.85-7.5

Aluminum MCX 28-APR-11 Aluminium RS./ KG. 120 119.7 116.4120 118.15 21581 -1.85 1935 126804.84

Nickel MCX 28-APR-11 Nickel RS./ KG. 1233.5 1232.9 1151.91241.7 1164.9 227629 9727 804686.49-68.6

SymbolExch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price UnitPreviousClose

Open LowHigh CloseQty.Traded

NetOpen

Interest

WeeklyTurnOver

(Rs. in Lakhs)

LEAD 28-APR-2011 119.5 -9.37

Weekly Market Update


*

* Turnover Till Friday

ZINC 28-APR-2011 105.9 -6.62

Weekly Report





Gold

Silver

Copper

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Lead

Zinc

Aluminum

Nickel

Scripts R3 R2 PP S1 S2 S3

22343.33

69290.00

480.50

4877.67

209.70

148.90

123.47

1365.77

125.38

21888.33

65330.00

453.00

4864.67

197.40

135.80

115.87

1275.97

121.78

21433.33

61370.00

425.50

4851.67

185.10

122.70

108.27

1186.17

118.18

21274.67

59900.00

407.50

4845.33

179.90

114.55

103.28

1130.63

116.37

20978.33

57410.00

418.97

4838.67

172.80

109.60

100.67

1096.37

114.58

20523.33

53450.00

370.50

4825.67

160.50

96.50

93.07

1006.57

110.98

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Weekly Pivots

R1

21729.67

63860.00

435.00

4858.33

192.20

127.65

110.88

1220.43

119.97

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Weekly Report


Documents

Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (18th – 22nd April ‘11)