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www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Buildings Sector Working Group
Erin Boedecker, Buildings Analysis Team Leader Owen Comstock Behjat Hojjati Kevin Jarzomski David Peterson Steve Wade
September 26, 2013
AEO2014 Preliminary Results
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Overview
2
• Residential projects
– RECS update
– Housing stock formation and
decay
– Lighting model
– ENERGY STAR homes
benchmarking
– Weather elasticities
• Commercial projects
– Major end-use capacity factors
– Data center servers
– ENERGY STAR buildings
– Hurdle rate floor
• Both sectors
– Usual annual updates
– Miscellaneous end-use
technology assumptions updates
– Distributed generation
• Contract reports
• Changes in release cycles
– AEO and IEO
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013
Residential results
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 3
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Macro: slower household growth expected
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 4
• Slower population growth (now 0.7% CAGR; was 0.9%)
• Slower household growth
• Housing starts now based on macro module output for entire
projection
• Decay rates: what percent of this year’s stock survives into
next year?
NEW OLD
Single family .997 .996
Multi-family .995 .999
Mobile homes .966 .976
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
What this means for, say, mobile homes
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
2005 2040
stock of mobile homes (MAM and RDM)
millions
AEO2013
was
assuming
too many
mobile
homes
survive
But now it’s
better for
AEO2014
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
2005 2040
stock of mobile homes (MAM)
millions
Macro
module
output went
down from
AEO2013 to
AEO2014
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
2009 RECS: Smaller share of single family
households
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2009 housing stock by region and building type
millions of homes
AEO2013 AEO2014
single family multifamily mobile
homes
North
east
Midwest
South
West
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Base year end use composition affects projections (major fuels)
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 7
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
2009 electricity (delivered)
quads
space
heating
space
cooling
water
heating
kitchen &
laundry
lighting
TVs & PCs
other
AEO2013
AEO2014
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
2009 natural gas
quads
space
heating
water
heating
other
cooking
AEO2013
AEO2014
Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Base year end use composition affects projections (minor fuels)
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 8
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60
2009 distillate fuel
quads
space
heating
water
heating
2009 liquefied petroleum gas
quads space
heating
water
heating
cooking
other
AEO2013
AEO2014
AEO2013
AEO2014
Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Lighting module updates
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 9
• Lighting projections now driven completely by input file
specifications
– Flexible number of lighting end uses
– Hours of use bins available for all end uses
• Redefined lighting end use categories
– AEO 2013: general service, reflector, linear fluorescent, torchieres
– AEO 2014: general service, reflector, linear fluorescent, exterior
• Data updates
– Reduced cost of halogen bulbs meeting EISA efficacy requirements
– Added LED alternative to linear fluorescents
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Lighting projections reflect expanded LED availability in later
years
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 10
delivered lighting consumption
quads
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO2013
AEO2014
Wider availability of LED
technologies
Higher CFL shares in 2009
Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Residential electricity consumption higher in near term
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 11
delivered electricity consumption
quads
Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO2013
AEO2014
2012
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Residential natural gas consumption lower in near term
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 12
natural gas consumption
quads
Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO2013
AEO2014
2012
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Petroleum fuels also lower than AEO2013
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 13
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2005 2015 2025 2035
AEO2013
AEO2014
2012
propane consumption
quads
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2005 2015 2025 2035
AEO2013
AEO2014
2012
distillate fuel oil consumption
quads
Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Electricity prices higher; natural gas similar
14
$2012 per million Btu $2012 per million Btu
Residential Commercial
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2015 2025 2035
AEO2013
AEO2014
AEO2014
AEO2013 natural gas
electricity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2015 2025 2035
AEO2013
AEO2014
AEO2014
AEO2013
natural gas
electricity
Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
Turning to the commercial sector …
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 15
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Commercial floorspace virtually unchanged from AEO2013
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 16
total floorspace
billion square feet
70
80
90
100
110
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO2013
AEO2014
Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Lower commercial capacity factors reduce potential savings
from efficient purchases
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 17
stock efficiency of natural gas water heaters
Btu out/ Btu in
0.76
0.80
0.84
0.88
0.92
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO2013
AEO2014
Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Data centers server installed base grows at the rate of service
output
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 18
non-PC office equipment consumption
quads
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO2013
AEO2014
Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
ENERGY STAR floorspace accounts for 1.9% of total
commercial floorspace in 2012
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 19
total floorspace
billion square feet
Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
65
70
75
80
85
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ENERGY STAR Floorspace
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Commercial electricity consumption higher than in AEO2013
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 20
delivered electricity consumption
quads
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO2013
AEO2014
2012
Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Commercial natural gas consumption lower than in AEO2013
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 21
natural gas consumption
quads
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO2013
AEO2014
2012
Source: EIA, ref2014.d092413a PRELIMINARY RESULTS / NOT FOR CITATION
Other projects
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 22
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Miscellaneous Electric Loads (MELs) Update
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 23
Commercial MELs Residential MELs
Distribution Transformers Dehumidifiers
Data Center Servers Set-top Boxes, All
IT Equipment (non-data center) Modems & Routers
Water Treatment/Distribution External Power Supplies
PC – Desktops Non-Computer Rechargeable Electronics
PC – Laptops Ceiling Fans
PC – Monitors Televisions
Kitchen Ventilation DVD
Lab Refrigerators/Freezers PCs, Laptop
Medical Imaging Equipment PCs, Desktop
Video Displays Monitors (i.e. desktop PC monitors)
Video Boards Audio Equipment
Security Systems Portable Electric Spas
Pools/Pool Pumps
Security Systems, Home
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Televisions consumed 70 TWh in 2011, but efficiency is
improving with the changeover to LCDs; however increases in
typical size counter some efficiency gains.
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 24
“Analysis and Representation of Miscellaneous Electric Loads in NEMS”, Navigant Consulting, September 2013.
2011 2015 2020 2030 2040
Installed Base (000s) 355,000 364,000 388,000 444,000 501,000
Active 127 95 83 69 62
Off/Standby 1.62 1.13 0.49 0.40 0.4
Active 1,460 1460 1460 1460 1460
Off/Standby 7300 7300 7300 7300 7300
UEC kWh/yr 197 150 130 100 94
AEC TWh/yr 70.0 54.6 50.4 44.4 47.1
Power Draw (W)
Annual Usage (hrs)
This category includes:
• Cathode Ray Tubes (CRT) – 47% of installed base
• Liquid Crystal Displays (LCD) – 42% of installed base
• Plasma – 11% of installed base
Major equipment contract reports now available online:
http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Distributed generation
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 25
• Update to latest installed capacity for PV
• Potential refinement of current and near-term PV costs
(Tracking the Sun VI and joint LBNL/NREL presentation)
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
Changes in release cycles for EIA’s AEO and IEO
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 26
• To focus more resources on rapidly changing energy
markets and how they might evolve over the next few
years, the U.S. Energy Information Administration is
revising the schedule and approach for production of the
International Energy Outlook (IEO) and the Annual
Energy Outlook (AEO).
• Under this approach, a full edition of the IEO and AEO
will be produced in alternating years and a shorter
edition of each will be completed in the “interim” years.
For discussion purposes only
Not for citation
AEO and IEO cycles for 2014 and 2015
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 27
2014 2015
International
Energy
Outlook
Interim Edition in mid 2014:
• focus on the liquids projection
as used in AEO2014
• summary tables
• short analysis
Full Edition in the spring
Annual
Energy
Outlook
Full Edition in the spring:
• analysis of energy issues
• many alternative scenarios
Interim Edition in late 2014 or early
2015:
• Reference
• Low / High Economic Growth
• Low / High Oil Price cases
• short discussions
For more information
Buildings Team, AEO2014 Preliminary
Results, September 26, 2013 28
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy