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Global Economics Affect Semiconductors
World
GDP Consumer
Confidence
Regional
Conflicts
Aging
Population
Oil
Prices
© Copyright Semico Research Corp.
Our environment which we can not control but must manage
World GDP: A Mixed Bag
GDP Growth
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China 10.3% 9.5% 8.1% 7.6% 7.4% 7.2%
India 7.4% 7.8% 4.5% 5.4% 4.8% 7.0%
Korea 6.1% 4.3% 2.9% 3.0% 3.6% 3.3%
Brazil 7.5% 3.2% 1.3% 2.3% 0.8% 1.5%
U.S. 2.8% 1.6% 2.3% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8%
EU 2.3% 1.5% 1.5% -0.3% 0.8% 1.4%
Japan 3.9% -0.5% 2.0% 2.5% -0.8% 0.7% Source: Semico Research Corp. and Government Statistics
3
Mobility Driving the Market
Source: Semico Research Corp.
• Smartphone • Up 21% in 2014 • Up 14% in 2015
• Tablet • Up 24% in 2014 • Up 16% in 2015
• Notebook/Convertible • Up 10% in 2014 • Up -1.3% in 2015
4
Source: Semico Research Corp.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Smartphones
Million of Units
Semiconductor Forecast
5
IPI Points to Growth in 2015
Source: Semico Research IPI Report
6
World Semiconductor Forecast
7
Source: Semico Research Corp.
Dollars in Millions
Wafer Demand
The Smart Future
9
Where’s the IoT growth?
Source: Semico Research Corp.
**IoT Less Mobile Computing & Smartphone Units
10
Wearables
Wearable Air Quality Sensor
� allergens like pollen � car exhaust, � fine dust, and � smoke � UV sensor to help users track sun exposure � as well as temperature and humidity sensors � $199
Connecting with your environment
2 way Communication with your Pet
IoT and Animal Wearables
Action Heroes Finding Wandering Fido
The Athlete Really are you Kidding!!
Animal IoT isn't just about cats & dogs
Industrial Sector Will Lead the IoT Revolution
Smart Lighting
Source: Philips
Hospitality
Street Lighting Office & Industrial
Retail & Public Venues
Outdoor/Area Lighting
Architectural Lighting
Video Screens/Ads
1/5th of global electricity is used
for
Lighting
Smart Lighting JVs
Industrial IoT Air Quality Monitoring
Source: Perkin Elmer
• Standard electronics • Compact low power
batteries • Ingestible materials
considerations Source: Medtronics
Real time sweat analysis using wearable micro-fluidic devices • MC10 BioStamp hydration sensor • Electrozyme tattoo biosensor
analyzes chemical constituents of sweat
• galvanic skin sensors
Sports, Medical Monitoring and Diagnostics Smart Pills Fluid Analysis
Sports and Health
A New IoT Era Smart Renewable Energy
Powerwall
• 10 kWh weekly cycle and 7 kWh daily cycle models
• Guaranteed for 10 years • Sufficient to power most homes during
peak evening hours • Multiple batteries may be installed
together for homes with greater energy need
• Up to 90 kWh total for the 10 kWh battery and 63 kWh total for the 7 kWh battery
Powerpack • Aimed to support power needs for businesses
with larger than 90 kWh demand of capacity for weekly cycles or 63 kWh of capacity for daily cycles
• Designed to scale infinitely, the Powerpack is a 100 kWh tower available in a minimum of 500 kWh capacity groupings. Source: Tesla
Home Automation=16B connected devices by 2020
21
IoT End Markets Fueling ICs
• 8, 16 and 32 bit MCUs • Sensors/MEMs (optical, pressure,Gyro, Accel etc.) • Communication devices ( Wi-Fi, Bluetooth) • Low power SRAMs • Embedded NVM (eNVM) • Analog • Power Management ICs ( & energy harvesting) • Embedded SoCs
Basic Building Blocks for IoT
23
Sensor Hub Innovations
24
Sensor Fusion Ecosystem (2014)
25
Sensor Fusion Ecosystem (2015)
ARM’s View of IoT
Source: ARM and Semico Research
Total MEMS Shipments by End Markets
28
MEMS ASPs
• Falling prices driven by high volume consumer markets • Smartphones drive technology and innovation • Increasing integration and package innovations • Other markets take advantage of trend
Factors for IoT to Takeoff
• Reduced costs of sensors, MCUs, RF, LEDs – Lower manufacturing costs – Move to 300mm for efficiency, high volume
• Low Power • Distributed vs Centralized Processing • Interoperability
– Manageable number of standards – Open source framework for apps
• Security – Connectivity & privacy
30
Source: Semico Research Corp.
Summary
• Consumer will still upgrade smartphones every 2 years or less over forecast period – More features and functionality the driver – Continued migration from feature to smart
• IoT the next big wave. – Broad based semiconductor tech usage – Sensor and MEMs adding data for processing
• Moores Law still alive -- just getting more complicated requiring novel innovation
Source: Semico Research Corp.