48
7/23/2019 Building Onshore Versus Offshore http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/building-onshore-versus-offshore 1/48 Building Onshore Versus Ofshore  The purpose of this model is to provide a comparison between building an onshore  The model is for a company based in the U.S. with sales in the U.S. However, despi in China. These include lower variable costs and an echange rate that is li!ely to i have a more "eible capacity than the China plant, and thus able to satisfy larger straightforward one.  The model includes uncertainty in the echange rate #Chinese $uan per US %ollar&, available. The future echange rates are based on tting historical echange rates best t, after suitable transformations.& The wee!ly demands are assumed to be n from the previous wee! and standard deviation e+ual to a given percentage of the is set at --- units #the initial mean demand&, but etra capacity is available each distributed, and it tends to be larger for the U.S. plant. That is, the U.S. plant tends  Two important assumptions of the model are that #*& any demand in ecess of avai included. ( number of /0S1 output cells have been desiginated, including dierences betw simulation, you should nd that the oshore option is almost certainly better from number of units sold. The latter is due to the less "eible Chinese plant.

Building Onshore Versus Offshore

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Building Onshore Versus Ofshore

 The purpose of this model is to provide a comparison between building an onshore

 The model is for a company based in the U.S. with sales in the U.S. However, despiin China. These include lower variable costs and an echange rate that is li!ely to ihave a more "eible capacity than the China plant, and thus able to satisfy largerstraightforward one.

 The model includes uncertainty in the echange rate #Chinese $uan per US %ollar&,available. The future echange rates are based on tting historical echange ratesbest t, after suitable transformations.& The wee!ly demands are assumed to be nfrom the previous wee! and standard deviation e+ual to a given percentage of theis set at --- units #the initial mean demand&, but etra capacity is available eachdistributed, and it tends to be larger for the U.S. plant. That is, the U.S. plant tends

 Two important assumptions of the model are that #*& any demand in ecess of avaiincluded.

( number of /0S1 output cells have been desiginated, including dierences betwsimulation, you should nd that the oshore option is almost certainly better fromnumber of units sold. The latter is due to the less "eible Chinese plant.

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plant in the U.S. and building an oshore plant in China.

te transportation costs, there might be benets to buildingmprove through time. However, the U.S. plant is li!ely toemands. So the choice of plant location is not a

wee!ly demand, and amounts of etra wee!ly capacitywith the Time Series 'it tool. #(n )(* process provides thermally distributed with mean e+ual to the actual demandmean demand. The planned wee!ly capacity of each plantwee! if needed. This etra capacity is triangularlyto be more "eible in terms of capacity.

lable capacity is lost, and #& no depreciation or taes are

een the onshore and oshore plants. 2hen you run thean 345 standpoint, even though this will result in a lower

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Inputs

2ee!ly demand #normally distributed&

0nitial mean ---

)ean other wee!s 4revious wee!6s demand

Std%ev 7.-8 of mean demand

4lant cost #incurred now&

9nshore #in US& :,;--,--- US%

9short #in China& 7--,--- C3$

5ariable cost onshore

0nitial <-.-- US%

8 increase :.-8 annually

5ariable cost oshore

0nitial :.-- C3$8 increase <.-8 annually

(nnual discount rate *-8

Outputs

%iscounted cash "ows #US%& 9nshore 9shore %ierence

4lant Cost :,;--,--- :,:*=,< *>-,;7>

5ariable Cost ;,:?,?- ?,-;7,7?- *,<?7,7?

 Transit Cost - *,-7=,7*< @*,-7=,7*<

/evenue *,;<>,>;> *,?;,=*- ***,=?7345 *,;*<,<;? *,=;-,*? @<:;,7?=

Units Sold <>,*?> <;,:- *,=*>

Simulation

2ee! %emand Capacity

- A3()B

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Bchange rate#C3$DUS%&

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Selling price

0nitial ;-.-- US%

8 increase <.-8 annually

4lanned wee!ly capacity

9nshore 9shore

--- ---

2ee!ly etra capacity available #triangularly distributed&

9nshore 9shore

)inimum - -

)ost li!ely *-- ?

)aimum <-- *--

Unit transit cost #China to US&

0nitial ?.-- US%

8 increase ?.-8 annually

Onshore plant

Units sold

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5ariablecost #US%&

Selling price#US%&

%iscounted 5arCost #US%&

%iscounted/evenue #US%&

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CNY/USD

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