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Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO
Building Influence 2019As web marketing undergoes its biggest shift in a decade,
how we impact audiences needs to evolve.
Bit.ly/sparkinfluence2019
Influencer Marketing
Discover all the sources that influence your audience. Do
marketing (of all kinds) in those places.
2012
Influencer Marketing
Pay half naked people on Instagram
to post a photo with your product.
2019
Why is Influencer Marketing Getting All the Attention?
Via Google Trends
And So Much Investment?
Chart via MediaKix
*Estimate via Moz circa 2018
For comparison, SEO spend globally is ~$20-30B*
IMO, Data Like This Creates Irrational Bias
Via Pew
Instead of “Where are *our* customers?”,
Too many marketers ask “Which platform’s biggest?”
Potential Sources of Influence:
Podcasts
Events
Mainstream Media
Trade Journals
Whitepapers
Radio
Television
Guerilla Marketing
Branded Publications
Blogs
YouTube Channels
Industry Reports
Facebook GroupsWeb Searches
Email Newsletters
Consumer Review Pubs
Where “Influencer Marketing” is Done:
Podcasts
Events
Mainstream Media
Trade Journals
Whitepapers
Radio
Television
Guerilla Marketing
Branded Publications
Blogs
YouTube Channels
Industry Reports
Facebook GroupsWeb Searches
Email Newsletters
Consumer Review Pubs
Via Pew, Journalism.org, eMarketer, Statista
Reality Check: Attention & Influence Happen Everywhere
• Desktop devices average ~800
distinct pages viewed per month
• Mobile devices averaged ~300
distinct pages viewed per month
• Slight decrease in mobile browser
pageviews over time (possibly
cannibalized by apps)
• In March 2019, users viewed 2,350
unique pages on desktop and 680
unique pages on mobile (monthly
counts in the graph count multiple
visits to the same URL per month as
1)
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
Avg.
# o
f P
age V
iew
s
Average Distinct Pages Viewed Per Device by Month
Mobile Desktop
Despite the Growth of Apps & Domination of Big Tech Monopolies,
the Web Remains a Vibrant, Diverse Ecosystem
Where Should We Do Influence Marketing?
Wherever Our Audience Engages.
No “r”
The Major Shifts Impacting
Search, Social,
Content, & AdvertisingAnd How Marketers Can Best React
Search
Here’s Why That Should Scare
Web Creators…
Google Needs Growth, & It’s Not Coming From New
Searchers (at least in developed countries)
-
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
35,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
U.S. Searches by Month (web browsers only)
Google Desktop Google Images Desktop Google Mobile Google Images Mobile
3 Theories of Plateauing Search Demand
2: Voice search and mobile apps are cannibalizing queries(e.g. Google Home, Google Assistant, and their Search App)
1: Google’s getting better at solving searches the first time(so searchers don’t need to perform more queries)
3: Alternatives to Google are taking market share(e.g. Facebook, Instagram, DuckDuckGo, YouTube, and Amazon)
Theory 1: Google’s Removing the Need for Multiple
Queries on the Same Topic(s)
They Do This Through Web Result Replacements…
Content Scraping that Precludes a Click-Through
Giving Their Own Properties Preferential Treatment
And More Telepathic, Direct-to-the-Answer Results.
Theory 2: Voice Search & Mobile Apps Are Cannibalizing
Queries
Via Perficient Digital’s 2019 Survey of 1,719 people
Via Higher Visibility’s 2018 Survey of
2,017 Smartphone Owners
Unfortunately, we don’t yet have real data, just surveys
(which, historically, are poor representations of how people
actually behave).
Theory 3: Alternatives to Google Are Taking Market Share
-
10,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
50,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
Desktop Share of Searches by Month
Google Google Images Google Maps YouTube Bing Yahoo Facebook
Amazon Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia
Via Jumpshot’s clickstream panel of 10mm+ devices in the US, browser data only (no apps)
-
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
Search Volumes by Month Under 2.5B
Bing Yahoo Facebook Amazon Twitter
Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
Search Volumes by Month Under 350M
Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia
Via Jumpshot’s clickstream panel of 10mm+ devices in the US, browser data only (no apps)
Amazon’s Searched ~1/30th as Much as Google, But…
50,000
500,000
5,000,000
50,000 500,000 5,000,000
GO
OG
LE
SE
AR
CH
ES
AMAZON SEARCHES
Search Volumes for Top 1K Branded and Nonbranded Amazon Keywords on Google and Amazon (2018)
Nonbranded Terms Branded Terms Nonbranded Avg Branded Avg
nintendo switch
laptop
headphones
kindle
ps4
bluetooth headphones
prime video
external hard drive
paper towels
iPhone 7 case
cbd oil
water bottle
iPhone charger
food
lingerie
dog
iPhone
adidas
aa batteries
roku
mens socks
monitor
christmas
audible
sheets
What About Search on Instagram?
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
Instagram Hashtag Clicks by Month (Desktop)
IG’s grown ~2.5X on desktop (at a time when desktop overall
shrank). Still <0.1% of Google’s desktop search volume.
3 Theories of Plateauing Search Demand
2: Voice search and mobile apps are cannibalizing queries(e.g. Google Home, Google Assistant, and their Search App)
1: Google’s getting better at solving searches the first time(so searchers don’t need to perform more queries)
3: Alternatives to Google are taking market share(e.g. Facebook, Instagram, DuckDuckGo, YouTube, and Amazon)
These two are probably happening. The
third, not so much.
What’s Google Doing to Grow
Ad Revenue?
#1: Larger numbers
of more subtle ads
#2: More kinds of ads
Google’s Desktop CTRs
March 2018 (US):
Paid: 6.1%
Organic: 65.3%
No Click
Searches: 34.7%
*Note: Sums are greater than 100% as some searchers click multiple results per query
Google’s Mobile CTRs September 2018 (US):
*Note: Sums are greater than 100% as some searchers click multiple results per query
Paid: 9.5%
Organic: 38.4%
No Click Searches:
61.6%
How Do These Changes Affect Searcher Behavior?
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Desktop Organic CTR, Paid CTR, and Zero Click Searches (2016-2019)
Desktop Organic Clickthroughs Desktop Paid Clicks Desktop Zero Clicks
Desktop Zero-Click Searches
Up ~12% in 3 Years
On Mobile, Those Effects Are Magnified
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Mobile Organic CTR, Paid CTR, and Zero-Click Searches (2016-2019)
Mobile Clickthroughs Mobile Paid Clicks Mobile Zero Clicks
Mobile Zero-Click Searches Up
~20% in 3 Years
Google’s 2019 ABCs:
Biasing Visibility & Clicks to Paid Results
Answering Queries in SERPs & Sending Out Less Traffic
Competing Directly with Publishers(and ranking their own properties ahead of anyone else’s)
How Can Search Marketers
React?
Four Ways to Mitigate Search Risk in 2019:
2) Focus on Marketing that Grows Branded Search
1) Influence Searchers On the SERP
4) Re-Prioritize Keyword Targeting to CTR%
3) Use Barnacle SEO When Google Won’t Rank Your Site
Control Your Brand with On-SERP SEO
ID sites that rank in
your space, & build
profiles on them
Claim Your PanelsLeverage the Rich
Snippets Google
Offers
When KWs Show Aggregated
Answers, Influence the
Publishers Below to Get Listed
To Get Into These…
Get Mentioned + Listed In These
Double Down on Branded Demand Creation
CrowdCow’s “Craft Beef” campaign: a book, web content, & events focused
on growing branded demand for their unique product
If Other Sites Can Rank, But You Can’t;
Use Barnacle SEO
Every one of these sites
enables user-submitted or
guest editorial contributions
Shift SEO-Focused Content to KWs
Google Is Less Likely to Cannibalize
Via Ahrefs
Use CTR % Estimates in Your KW Research
This metric uses clicksteam data to
estimate the % of searchers who’ll
click on the standard, non-paid,
organic SERPs
Social
Social Follower’s Engagement Rates
Have Fallen to Near-Zero
Via RivalIQ 2019
IMO: 10,000 Instagram Followers < 100 Emails
Via RivalIQ 2019
Social
Follower
Address
Avg
Engagement/
Post or Email
Ability to
Retarget?
Reach on
Other
Platforms
Ability to Get
Audience Data
Direct
Outreach
Possible?
20.81%*
* Via Mailchimp
Yes, Anywhere Yup. Tons. Yes.
1.73%*Only on that
NetworkNope. Only what the
network gives you.No.
* Via RivalIQ
Social’s Traffic is Still Paltry Compared to Search
Via
Google.com
Oct 2016
Facebook.com
Reddit.com
YouTube.com
Imgur.com
Bing.com
Wikipedia.org
Gained/Lost
59.2%
6.5%
5.4%
4.5%
2.2%
2.2%
1.4%
Yahoo.com 6.0%
-1.4%
-1.3%
-2.0%
+0.3%
-1.2%
+1.5%
-0.1%
-1.7%
Amazon.com 1.3% +0.1%
Top Traffic Referrers Feb 2018
57.8%
5.2%
3.4%
4.8%
1.0%
3.7%
1.3%
4.3%
1.4%
Though It’s Sending a Little More Traffic Than Before
Mostly, That’s FB Groups, Pinterest, & Instagram
Instagram Has Always Prevented Outlinking
Now They May Be Targeting the “Link in Bio”
Via AgoraPulse
AgoraPulse’s experiment found a 34% decrease in avg. reach when a post contained the
phrase “link in bio” or similar.
YouTube Cuts Off Descriptions to Avoid Making
Links Visible in the Default View
On Mobile… They Hide
Them Entirely
Twitter & LinkedIn Bias Against Posts with Links
Via MarginallyCoherent
And All of Them Push Content that
Engages > Content That’s “Shared”
Crazy high impressions…
Relatively few retweets?
The tweets that engage
people ON Twitter > high
metric tweets that contain
links
How Can Social Marketers
React?
Three Ways to Still Get Value from Social in 2019:
2) Use Social to Build Audiences Who Know & Like You
1) Play to the Networks’ Bias for High Engagement Streaks
3) Drive Branded Search & Clicks w/ Latent vs. Active Links
Engagement Streaks Rule Social
Happy Dance!Sad Trombone.
Social Algorithms Are Designed to:
Engage
Addict
Retain
Does this content attract users, generate
likes/shares, & hold their attention?
Do users who see this content stay
on our platform and keep engaging?
Do users who’ve consumed this content
return to our platform again & again?
When I have a low engagement post,
my next post has a harder time
reaching a big audience.
When a post gets high engagement,
FB boosts the reach of my next post
(unless it starts to show poor
engagement)
In this way, Facebook (& Twitter, Instagram,
LinkedIn, etc) reward high engagement
streaks and makes accounts w/ low
engagement invisible.
To benefit from this
system, use a
formula like this:
High engagement, non-
promotional post
High engagement, non-
promotional post
Promotion w/ CTA
High engagement, non-
promotional post
These earn brand
exposure & new
followers
High engagement, non-
promotional post
To benefit from this
system, use a
formula like this:
High engagement, non-
promotional post
High engagement, non-
promotional post
Promotion w/ CTA
High engagement, non-
promotional post
These capitalize on
your algorithmic
reputation for high
engagement, & earn
direct trafficHigh engagement, non-
promotional post
Using Social Effectively Builds Brand Familiarity
This is all generic, not-
actionable, next-to-
useless advice
To Build Brand on
Social, We Need:
2) Content that is obviously connected
to the brand
1) Content that earns high engagement
& amplification
3) Content that creates emotional
resonance (best done through
compelling stories)
Use Latent vs. Active Links to Your Brand
That’s what I’m
talking ‘bout!
That’s no so bad,
either
Content + Social = Awareness
Awareness + Awesomeness = Conversion
Content
For 15 Years, Content Marketing Worked
Great Like This…
Content
Flywheel
2001-2016
KW Research +
Industry Intuition
Publish
Content
Promote via Social
Channels
Push to email +
RSS subscribers
Earn Links +
AmplificationGrow social, email,
RSS, & WoM channels
Grow Authority &
Brand Recognition
Earn Search &
Referral Traffic
Rank Higher, Get
More Traffic
But, in 2019, Four Forces Work Against This Model
#2 Demands for monetization and growth have pushed tech
monopolies to become publishers’ competitors
#1 Search Engine & Social Network Algorithms Have Become
Winner Take Most Platforms
#3 Amplifiers are overwhelmed by requests and more skeptical than
ever before
#4 Traffic quantity correlates less & less with conversions
How Can Content Marketers
React?
How to Make Content Work in 2019
2) Build content like you build product, i.e. deliver unique value
with a competitive advantage to a hungry audience
1) Find the intersection of what resonates with your customers
AND their influencers
3) Use content to earn email subscribers, and drive conversions
from there
Successful Content Targets Topics that Resonate with
Amplifiers, Not Just Customers
What Your
Customers Care
About
What Influential
Publications & People
Your Customers
Listen To Care About
Topics with high
potential reach
The Most Visited Piece the NYT Ever Published?
Dialect Quiz Map via NY Times
Grabs you fast, then demands
engagement
Plays to the psychological
desire for categorizing oneself
& others
Creates a viral loop (through
sharing & seeing friends’
answers)
Content as Product
This interactive piece from Typeform isn’t
just “good content;” it delivers:
Unique value
Reference-worthiness
A view into Typeform’s
competitive advantage
Rise of the Conversational UI via Typeform
Content → Email Subscriber → Conversion
“A visitor who reaches us via search is 1/19th as likely to
subscribe as one who comes in from a newsletter; a
reader coming in from Facebook is 1/12th; and a reader
coming in from Twitter is 1/6th.”
-Nicholas Thompson, Editor in Chief
Via Wired
VS.
VisitorEmail
SubscriberConversion
~2% ~10%
Visitor Conversion
~0.2%
Visitor Conversion
+Visitor
SubscriberConversion
~0.2%
~2% ~10%
These are additive, not
competitive!
Advertising
The Late Adopters Are Finally Crossing the Digital
Marketing Chasm
Via Geoffrey Moore
These players have lots of $$$, entrenched
brands, & are used to overpaying for
untrackable advertising
Venture Dollars Are Also Flooding Ad Markets
Via PWC/MoneyTree
Investment Dollars Aren’t Seeking Profits… Just
Growth
Via Statista
Ad Bids in Many Sectors Go Far Above What’s
Profitable
Ad Costs Have Gone Up, While ROI Trends Down
Via BusinessInsider
And Ad Tracking Getting Much Harder
Which Will Reinforce Large Quantities of “Dumb
Money” > More Trackable Advertising
The concept of a 90-day look back window is a
wrap. Retargeting beyond 7 days is dead.
Effectively, for a sales cycle of any realistic
length, the whole concept of attribution outside
of last click is over.
Via iPullRank
Influencer Marketing is Even Harder to Track
Via Linqia
And Accountability is a Massive Issue
Via TheDrum
“I do campaigns for brands on a weekly basis
and less than half ever come back for metrics;
less than 50% ever want to know what’s
happened. That makes me think it’s PRs playing
a numbers game and once a campaign has
gone no one is really interested.”
How Can Ad Professionals
React?
First: Organic + Brand; Then: Ads + CRO
If you’re not yet known, liked, &
trusted, ad ROI sucks.
Via Wordstream
New to a market? This
happens.
Known & loved? Welcome
to Profitville.
If “Branding” and “Awareness” are your
biggest goals… Measure that!
Via Google Trends
Branded Search *IS* a Measurable Number
The Most Followed Account(s) that Match a Keyword Search
Traditional Influencer Marketing Seeks Out:
The Most-ReachableAccount(s) that Match a Keyword Search
OR
But That’s Not Really What We Want…
Targeting on Audience Size > Audience Match
4mm followers
Followed by 19% of profiles
that frequently talk about
“supercars”
What You Really Want: People & Publications Your Audience Engages
With Most
Followed by 16% of people
who frequently talk about
“Italian food”
What You Really Want: People & Publications Your Audience Engages
With Most
Small overall following, but reaches
exactly who we want to reach!
How to Win at Digital Advertising in 2019
Step 2: Earn brand exposure through organic, social, content, SEO,
events, & targeted brand marketing
Step 3: Get >1 organic visit (or a social engagement)
Step 4: Pay to advertise where your audience engages to those who
already know+like you
Step 1: Interview, survey, or use profile data to discover where your
audiences engage (and with whom/what)
Influence
Let’s Evolve How We Create
Ready?
Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO
Thank You!
Bit.ly/sparkinfluence2019
